Chng 2

MT S C S L LUN CA
KINH T U T
1
A. KHI NIM, PHN LOI HIU QU V CC
QUAN IM NH GI D N U T
I. KHI NIM V PHN LOI HIU QU CA D
N U T
1. Khi nim
2. Phn loi hiu qu d n u t v mt nh tnh
3. Phn loi hiu qu v mt nh lng
II. CC QUAN IM NH GI D N U T
1. Quan im ca ch u t
2. Quan im ca nh nc
3. Quan im ca a phng
2
I. KHI NIM V PHN LOI HIU QU CA D
N U T
1. Khi nim
Hiu qu ca d n u t l nh gi ton b mc tiu
ra ca d n.
Hiu qu ca d n c c trng bng 2 nhm ch tiu:
- nh tnh: th hin cc loi hiu qu t c.
- nh lng: th hin quan h gia li ch v chi ph ca
d n.
3
PHN LOI HIU QU D N U T V MT
NH TNH
- Theo lnh vc hot ng x hi:
+ hiu qu kinh t (kh nng sinh li);
+ hiu qu k thut (nng cao trnh v y mnh tc
pht trin khoa hc k thut);
+ hiu qu kinh t - x hi
+ hiu qu quc phng.
- Theo quan im li ch: hiu qu c th l ca doanh
nghip, ca nh nc hay l ca cng ng.
- Theo phm vi tc dng:
4
PHN LOI HIU QU V MT NH LNG
- Theo cch tnh ton:
+ Theo s tuyt i (v d tng s li nhun thu c,
hiu s thu chi, v v.)
+ Theo s tng i (v d t sut li nhun tnh cho
mt ng vn u t, t s thu chi, ...)
- Theo thi gian tnh ton: tnh cho mt mt n v thi
gian (thng l mt nm), hoc cho c i d n. Theo
thi im tnh ton hiu qu phn thnh hiu qu thi
im hin ti, tng lai v hiu qu thng nin.
- Theo ln ca hiu qu: hiu qu c th coi l t
(hay l ng gi) v hiu qu khng t (hay l khng
ng gi) khi so snh vi hiu qu tiu chun.
5
PHN LOI HIU QU V MT NH LNG (t.t.)

Phng n c chn phi m bo va l phng n
ng gi va phi bo m hiu qu ln nht. Do vy khi
la chn phng n theo th t:
- hiu qu tnh theo s tuyt i - ln nht,
- hiu qu tnh theo s tng i - phng n ng gi.
6
CC QUAN IM NH GI D N U T

Cc d n u t lun lun phi c nh gi theo cc gc
:
- Li ch ca ch u t;
- Li ch ca quc gia;
- Li ch ca dn c a phng ni t d n u t.
7
B. PHN TCH TI CHNH CA D N U T:
I. NGHA V NI DUNG CA VIC PHN TCH TI CHNH CA
D N U T
1. ngha ca vic phn tch ti chnh
2. Ni dung ca vic phn tch ti chnh ca d n
II. PHNG PHP PHN TCH HIU QU TI CHNH CA D N U T
1. Phng php dng nhm ch tiu tnh
a. PHNG PHP SO SNH THEO CHI PH CHO MT N V SN PHM
b. PHNG PHP IM HA VN (Break Even Point - BEP)
c. PHNG PHP SO SNH LI NHUN:
d. TNH TON SUT LI NHUN (RETURN ON INVESTMENT ROI)
e. TNH THI GIAN HON VN:
2. Phng php dng nhm ch tiu ng:
a. PHNG PHP GI TR HIN TI (Net Present Value NPV)
b. PHNG PHP SUT THU LI NI TI (Internal Rate of Return - IRR)
c. PHNG PHP THI GIAN HON VN (Payback Period PP)


8
NGHA C A VIC PHN TCH TI CHNH
Phn tch ti chnh d n ng trn quan im li ch
ca ch u t ly mc tiu ti a li nhun kt hp vi
an ton kinh doanh l chnh nh gi d n, lm r
mt s vn nh:
- D n u t no c hiu qu hay khng c hiu
qu v kinh t (c ng gi khng?)?
- Hiu qu n mc no?
- u t qui m no l hp l nht?
- Nn chn nhng d n no?
- Mc an ton ca hot ng u t.
Ch u t c th la chn ra quyt nh u t sao
cho c li nht theo mt ch tiu hiu qu no (c
thit lp t mc tiu u t) trong nhng iu kin rng
buc ''nht nh
9
NI DUNG CA VIC PHN TCH TI CHNH
CA D N
Phn tch ti chnh ca d n u t gm cc phn phn
tch sau:
- Phn tch hiu qu ti chnh ca d n u t;
- Phn tch an ton v ti chnh ca d n u t: xc
nh an ton v ngun vn, im ho vn, kh nng
tr n v nhy ca d n nhm xc nh mc an
ton kinh doanh ca d n.
10
PHNG PHP PHN TCH HIU QU TI
CHNH CA D N U T
1. Phng php dng nhm ch tiu tnh
Phn tch, so snh phng n theo ch tiu tnh l khng
tnh n s bin ng ca ch tiu theo thi gian m ch
tnh ton cho 1 nm hot ng ca d n.
Cc ch tiu ny thng c dng tnh ton so snh
cho giai on nghin cu tin kh thi.
11
PHNG PHP SO SNH CHI PH CHO MT N
V SN PHM
Mc ch ca phng php n y nhm gii quyt bi ton:
- nh gi d n u t xy dng mi
- nh gi d n u t thay th
Phng n tt nht l phng n c chi ph sn xut cho
mt n v sn phm l nh nht.
Cc chi ph pht sinh ca d n bao gm:
Chi ph hot ng (B):
- Chi ph nhn cng;
- Chi ph vt t nguyn liu;
- Chi ph nhin liu, nng lng;
- Chi ph bo dng, sa cha;
- Chi ph qun l d n;
- Chi ph cho cng c, dng c vt r tin mau hng
12
PHNG PHP SO SNH CHI PH CHO MT N
V SN PHM (t.t)
Chi ph s dng vn (S):
- Chi ph khu hao (K)
- Chi ph li vay (L)
Thu v bo him (TB). (chi ph ny khng cp
trong chng trnh)
Tng chi ph ca mi d n:
TB S B C + + =

L K B C + + =
(khng tnh TB)
Trong , phn vn chu li vay ngn hng (L) c 3 kh
nng xy ra (ph thuc vo hnh thc khu hao)

13
1. Khu hao hon vn lin tc trong sut thi gian s
dng:
Mc vn trung bnh chu li (V
tb
):


- Nu D=0 th

2 / V V
tb
=


- Nu D>0 th

2 2
D V
D
D V
V
tb
+
= +

=


Vi: V - vn u t
D - gi tr cn li sau khi o thi hay gi tr thu hi.

D
Vn
Thi gian
0 1 2 3 n
V
tb

V
14
2. Khu hao tng giai on, thi im (qu, nm)
Gi tr trung bnh chu li








V
0 1 2 3 n
Thi gian
D
V
tb

Vn
15
2. Khu hao tng giai on, thi im (qu, nm) (t.t)
- Nu D=0 th
n
S
V
tb
=

Trong n nm c tnh

)
1
( )
2
( )
1
(
n
n
V V
n
V V
n
V V V S

+ + + + =


(

+ = )
1
(
2 n
n
V V V
n
S

T

n
n
x
V
V
tb
1
2
+
=

- Nu D>0 th

D
n
n
x
D V
V
tb
+
+
=
1
2

16
3. Chi ph khu hao 1 ln vo cui thi gian s
dng v bi hon vn li
Mc vn trung bnh chu li sut
V V
tb
=


D
V
tb

0 n
Vn
V
Thi gian
17
PHNG N CHI PH CHO MT N V
SN PHM (tt)
C cu chi ph :
- Chi ph c nh hay nh ph (q): chi ph khng thay i, khng
ph thuc vo khi lng sn phm sn xut ra trong nm
V d chi pht cho b my qun l, li tr n di hn, chi ph
khu hao ti sn c nh v.v..,
- Chi ph bin i hay bin ph (f): chi ph thay i, ph thuc
vo khi lng cng tc XL lm ra trong thi on .
V d: chi ph vt liu, nhn cng theo lng sn phm, nng
lng. s dng my thi cng v.v.
Hm chi ph:
y = qx + f
PHNG N SO SNH CHI PH CHO MT
N V SN PHM (tt)
Trng hp c nhiu phng n cn so snh.
Gi thit 2 phng n (PA):
y
1
= q
1
n + f
1
y
2
= q
2
n + f
2
Cn tm im sn lng cn bng (k hiu l n
A
).
n
A
=
Xc nh c gi tr y
1
(n
A
) v y
2
(n
A
), t chn PA c gi
thnh nh hn tng ng vi hai quy m sn xut vi khi
lng sn xut n t 0 n
A
v t n
A
.
q
1
- q
2
f
2
- f
1
y
y
2
y
1
y
A
f1
f2
O
n
A
n
PHNG N SO SNH CHI PH CHO MT
N V SN PHM (tt)
Tng gi thnh ca PA1 v PA2
Vi quy m sn
xut t 0 n
A
th
PA2 c gi thnh
nh hn. (tt hn);
Vi quy m sn
xut t n
A
th
PA1 c gi thnh
nh hn, (tt hn).
PHNG N SO SNH CHI PH CHO MT
N V SN PHM (tt)
V d: Mt x nghip sn xut b tng c sn vi khi
lng sn xut t 13001700 m3 b tng vi cc PA
sn xut cho bng nh sau:
300.000 425 III
250.000 450 II
200.000 500 I
Chi ph c nh (F)
(ngn )
Chi ph bin i (P)
(ngn /m3)
PA
PHNG N SO SNH CHI PH CHO MT
N V SN PHM (tt)
So snh PA1 v PA2:vi y
1
= y
2
y
1
= y
2
= 450*1000+250 =700 tr.
So snh PA2 v PA3:
y
2
= y
3
= 0,425*2000+300 =1150 tr.
Quy m SX 1300-1700m
3
th PA2 c gi thnh nh nht
3
2 / 1
1000
45 , 0 5 , 0
200 250
m n =

=
3
3 / 2
2000
425 , 0 45 , 0
250 300
m n =
+

=
PHNG N SO SNH CHI PH CHO MT
N V SN PHM (tt)
.
y
1
y
2
y
3
y
1200
1150
1000
800
600
400
200
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 n
SO SNH D N U T XY DNG MI
Tng chi ph: Chn d n c tng chi ph nh nht
y min
V d 7:
9 1,5 Tr./nm Chi ph bin i khc 6
20.000 30.000 vsp Mc sn xut 3
7,5 4 Tr. /nm Chi ph nhn cng 4
5 5 Tr. /nm Chi ph nhin, nguyn vt liu 5
4 4 nm Thi gian s dng 2
140 200 Tr. Tng vn u t 1
DA II DA I V KHON MC TT
SO SNH D N U T XY DNG MI (tt)
48+21,5
= 69,5
65+10,5
= 75,5
Tr. /nm TNG CHI PH C NM III
35+7+6
= 48
50+10+5
= 65
Tr. /nm C. PH C NH C NM I
140/4=35 200/4=50 Tr. /nm Chi ph khu hao 1
(140/2)*10%
= 7
(200/2)*10%
= 10
Tr. /nm Chi ph li vay (i=10%/nm) 2
6 5 Tr. /nm Chi ph c nh khc 3
7,5+5+9
= 21,5
4+5+1,5
= 10,5
Tr. /nm C. PH BIN I C NM II
69.500/20.000
= 3,48
75.500/30.000
= 2,52
Ng./nm CHI PH CHO 1 VSP IV
DA II DA I V KHON MC TT
DA Chn
PHNG PHP IM HA VN
BREAK EVEN POINT - BEP
im ha vn l im m ti doanh thu bng chi
ph.
C 3 loi im ha vn
1. im ha vn l thuyt (ha vn li l);
2. im ha vn tin t;
3. im ha vn tr n.
IM HA VN L THUYT
Hm doanh thu: y
1
= gx
g: gi bn bnh qun 1 n v sn phm
x: lng sn phm bn ra
Hm chi ph: y
2
= qx + f
q: chi ph bin i cho 1 n v sn phm (bin ph)
f: chi ph c nh trong 1 nm (nh ph)
im ha vn l thuyt:
y
1
= y
2
ta c x
0
= f / (g - q)
IM HA VN L THUYT (tt)
Vng
l
Vng li
Doanh thu
Sn lng
x
0
X
A
B
im
ha vn
y
1
y
2
O

= y
1
y
2
< 0 hay X < x
0
: b l
= 0: im ha vn
> 0 hay X > x
0
: c li
Tng doanh thu
Doanh thu ha vn
OB
OA
Tng sn lng
Sn lng ha vn
OX
Ox
0

1
= =

1
= =
Xc nh mc hot ng ha vn li l
IM HA VN L THUYT (tt)
V d: Cty A sn xut 50% cng sut, t 1.000 cu kin BT/nm.
1- Mc sn xut trn cng ty c li khng?
2- Tnh mc gim bin ph (tit kim) cn thit t c im
ha vn?
Nu: - Gi bn 750 ngn ng/cu kin,
- nh ph 600 tr. ng/nm,
- Bin ph 250 ngn ng/cu kin
PHNG PHP SO SNH LI NHUN
Mc ch: tnh ton li nhun d n, nn phng php
ny nhm gii quyt 3 trng hp:
- Bi ton nh gi;
- Bi ton so snh loi b nhau;
- Bi ton u t thay th.
Li nhun (L) y c hiu l hiu s gia phn thu
do bn sn phm (T) trong mt khon thi gian tr i
phn chi ph sn xut (C) pht sinh trong thi gian
C T L =

Do vy khi nh gi hay so snh cc d n, d n c
chn tho mn
0 > L

max L

30
PHNG PHP SO SNH LI NHUN (t.t)
u im:
- Phng php tnh ton n gin
Nhc im:
- Khng phn nh c cc ch tiu qua cc nm
- Kh phn nh c hin tng trt gi
- Cha phn nh c mi lin h vi vn u t.
31
TNH TON SUT LI NHUN
(RETURN ON INVESTMENT ROI)
Tng t nh trn phng php tnh ton sut li nhun
nhm gii quyt bi ton:
- nh gi d n;
- So snh loi b nhau;
- u t thay th.


= ROI



= ROI



> i
Li nhun trong khong thi gian
Vn trung bnh b ra
max
Chi ph tit kim c
Vn trung bnh b ra
max > i
32
TNH TON SUT LI NHUN
(RETURN ON INVESTMENT ROI) (t.t)
u im:
- Phng php tnh ton n gin;
- Mc doanh li c th hin bng s tng i;
- C th so snh vi mt gi tr chn trc so snh.
Nhc im:
- Khng phn nh c cc ch tiu qua cc nm
- Kh phn nh c hin tng trt gi
- Khng cho kt qu chnh xc khi cc phng n so
snh c tui th d n khc nhau.
33
TNH THI GIAN HON VN
Phng php tnh thi gian hon vn l xc nh khong
thi gian k hoch cn thit hon li vn b ra.
D n chn
Trong :
V - vn u t ca d n (tr i gi tr thu hi)
Kn - khu hao c bn hng nm.
Ln - li nhun rng thu c hng nm (trong
cha tnh khu hao vo chi ph)
min
+
=
n n
hv
K L
V
T
CC PHNG PHP TNH THI GIAN
HON VN (T.T)
- Phng php trung bnh
- Phng php cng dn
- Phng php th
35
PHNG PHP TRUNG BNH
Phng php ny dng khi mc thu hi vn hng nm
xem nh bng nhau
- Trong trng hp c mc thu hi vn trung bnh
nm l hiu s gia thu nhp (T) v chi ph (C) th:

C T
D V
T
hv

=

- Trong trng hp u t hp l ho sn xut th phi
tnh bng tit kim chi ph (TKCP) do d n mang li

n
hv
K TKCP
D V
T
+

=

- Trong trng hp c mc khu hao nm l li nhun
nm v chi ph khu hao

n n
hv
K L
D V
T
+

=

36
PHNG PHP TRUNG BNH
V d 9:
7 9 Tr. /nm Li nhun trung bnh nm 3
100/32=3,13 100/34=2,94 nm THI GIAN HON VN 6
100/4=25 100/4=25 Tr. Chi ph khu hao 4
25+7=32 9+25=34 Tr. /nm Mc hon vn 5
4 4 nm Thi gian s dng 2
100 100 Tr. Tng vn u t 1
DA II DA I V KHON MC TT
DA Chn

PHNG PHP CNG DN

Phng php ny dng khi mc thu hi vn cc nm khc
nhau. Theo phng php ny ta cng dn mc hon vn
nm cho n thi im k no m:

0
1
=

=
V N
k
t
t

Khi
k T
hv
=


38
PHNG PHP CNG DN (T.T)

Cn
0
1
<

=
V N
k
t
t


0
1
1
>

+
=
V N
k
t
t

Ta ni suy tuyn tnh hv
T
trong gii hn sau:

1 + < < k T k
hv
Trong :
N
t
mc hon vn ti thi im t
V- Vn u t
39
PHNG PHP CNG DN
V d 9:
20
40 60
30 90
40 130
40
40 80
40 100
30
Tr. /nm Mc hon vn: Nm 1
Nm 2
Nm 3
Nm 4
3
3,25 3 nm THI GIAN HON VN 4
4 4 nm Thi gian s dng 2
100 100 Tr. Tng vn u t 1
DA II DA I V KHON MC TT
DA Chn
PHNG PHP TH


100
80
60
40
20
0


I
II
Mc hon
vn (%)

0 1 2 3 4
N
41
PHNG PHP TH (T.T)

iu kin v hn ch khi p dng phng php:
- Phng php tnh thi gian hon vn ch cp n thi
gian m vn u t b ra c hon li;
- Cha tnh n yu t thi gian ca chi ph v li nhun.
Do vy khi ra quyt nh u t cn phi kt hp vi cc
phng php khc trnh sai lm
42
GI TR TIN T THEO THI GIAN
Khi nim v gi tr ca tin t theo thi gian
Mi d n u t u lin quan n chi ph v li ch. Cc
chi ph v li ch li xy ra nhng mc thi gian khc
nhau, do phi xt n vn gi tr ca tin t theo thi
gian.
Tnh ton li tc
Li tc l biu hin gi tr gia tng theo thi gian ca tin t
xc nh bng hiu s tng vn tch lu c (k c vn gc
v li) v s vn gc ban u,
(Li tc) = (Tng vn tch ly) - (Vn u t ban u)
C hai loi li tc:
- li tc n;
- li tc ghp.
43
LI TC N
L li tc ch tnh theo s vn gc m khng tnh n li
tc sinh thm ca cc khon li cc thi on trc.
n r V L
d
* * =

Trong :
V - s vn gc cho vay (hay u t);
r - li sut n;
n - s thi on tnh li tc.
Nh vy s tin V nm hin ti v s tin (V + L
d
)
nm th n l c gi tr tng ng. Do vy 1 ng
nm hin ti s tng ng vi (1+ r*n) ng nm n
trong tng lai.
44
V d 1: Mt ngi vay 100 triu ng vi li sut vay l
10% nm, thi hn vay l 5 nm (khng tnh li vay). Nh
vy cui nm th 5 ngi vay phi tr gm:
- Vn gc: 100 tr. ng
- Li vay n : 100 tr. * 0,1 * 5 = 50 tr. ng
- Tng cng: 100 tr. ng + 50 tr. ng = 150 tr. ng.
45
LI TC GHP
L hnh thc li tc m sau mi thi on tin li c
nhp vo vn gc tnh li cho thi on tip theo.
Cch tnh li tc ny thng s dng trong thc t.
n
i V F ) 1 ( + =

Tng cng li tc ghp
V F L
g
=

Trong :
F - gi tr ca vn u t thi im thanh ton (gi tr
tng lai ca vn u t);
V - vn gc cho vay hay em u t ;
i - li sut ghp;
L
g
- li tc ghp.
46
LI TC GHP (t.t)
Nh vy 1 ng vn b ra thi im hin ti s tng
ng vi (1+ i)
n
ng nm th n trong tng lai, v
ngc li 1 ng vn b ra n nm sau trong tng lai s
tng ng vi 1/(1 + i)
n
ng b ra thi im hin ti.
- H s (1 + i)
n
c dng quy i gi tr tin t v
thi im cui trong tng lai.
H s 1/(1 +i)
n
ln c dng quy i gi tr tin t
v thi im u hin ti.
V d2: Tng t v d 1(tnh vi li sut ghp)
- Vn gc: 100 triu ng
- Li tc ghp: 100*(1+ 0,1)
5
= 161,051 tr. ng

47
QUAN H GIA LI SUT THEO CC THI ON
KHC NHAU V LI SUT C CNG THI ON
Gi: r
1
- li sut c thi on ngn ( % thng, % qy)
r
2
- li sut c thi on di hn (% nm)
m - s thi on ngn trong thi on di
1. Trng hp li sut n:
` 1 2
*r m r =

V d 3: li sut thng 1%, vy li sut nm l
0,01*12=12%
2. Trng hp li sut ghp:
1 1
1 2
+ =
m
i i ) (

V d 4: li sut thng 1%, vy li sut nm (hng thng
nhp li vo vn tnh li tip theo)
% , ) , ( 68 12 1 01 0 1
12
2
= + = i


48
BI U DNG TIN T
thun tin tnh ton, ngi ta chia khong thi gian
di thnh nhiu thi on, c nh s 0, 1, 2, 3, n v
quy c: tt c cc khon thu, chi trong tng thi on
u xy ra cui thi on (tr vn u t ban u b
ra thi im 0);
Biu dng tin t l mt th biu din cc tr s thu,
chi theo cc thi on km theo ln ca cc tr s dng
tin t.
- Mi tn ch xung biu th dng tin t m (khon chi).
- Mi tn ch ln biu th dng tin t dng (khon thu).
49
V d 5: Mt ngi gi tit kim mi nm mt ln, nm
u gi 15 triu ng. Bn nm sau mi nm gi u n
10 triu ng, li sut 10%/ nm (ghp li hng nm). Hi
cui nm th 5 anh ta s lnh ra c bao nhiu tin? V
biu dng tin t ca hot ng gi tin.

F?
10%/nm
0 1 2 3 4 5
P=15
A=10
50
CC CNG THC TNH GI TR TNG NG
CHO CC DNG TIN N V U N
Cho cc dng tin n l P (Present value), F (Furture
value) v dng tin u n l A (Annuity), ta c th xc
lp cng thc biu th tng ng v gi tr kinh t gia
cc i lng F, P v A.
Cho P tm F:
n
i P F ) ( + = 1

ngha: Nu u t P ng trong n nm th n k hn
s ly tch c l F ng.
Cho F tm P:
n
i
F P
) ( +
=
1
1

51
CC CNG THC TNH GI TR TNG NG
CHO CC DNG TIN N V U N
Cho A tm F

i
i
A F
n
1 1 +
=
) (

ngha: Nu hng nm u t A ng u n trong nm
th cui nm th n s lu tch c F ng.
Cho F tm A
1 1 +
=
n
i
i
F A
) (

ngha: Mun c F ng nm th n trong tng lai th
hng nm phi u t u n l A ng.
52
CC CNG THC TNH GI TR TNG NG
CHO CC DNG TIN N V U N
Cho A tm P:
n
n
i i
i
A P
) (
) (
+
+
=
1
1 1

ngha: Nu hng nm c kh nng tr n u n l A
ng trong n nm th s vn c vay nm u s l P
ng.
Cho P tm A:
1 1
1
+
+
=
n
n
i
i i
P A
) (
) (

ngha: Nu nm u vay vn l P ng trong thi hn
n nm th hng nm phi tr u n c li ln gc l A
ng (hnh thc bn tr gp)
53
V d 6: Mt cng ty kinh doanh pht trin nh bn tr gp
cn h, mi cn h tr gi 500 triu ng, tr dn trong 10
nm, mi nm tr khong tin bng nhau, li sut i = 15%.
Hi mi nm ngi mua phi tr mt khon tin l bao
nhiu?
626 , 99
1 ) 15 , 0 1 (
) 15 , 0 1 ( * 15 , 0
500
10
10
=
+
+
= A

triu ng
54
GIA TR TNG NG
-10.000 4.000 4.000 4.000 4.000
0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4
P
F
A
T T
55
TM P, KHI BIET F
P = F*(P/F, i, n); P=F*[1/(1+i)
n
]
P
4
0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4
-10.000 2.000 4.000 6.000 7.000
P
0
P
1
P
2
P
3
T T
56
TM P, KHI BIET F
57
TM F, KHI BIET P
F
0
0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4
-10.000 2.000 4.000 6.000 7.000
F
4
F
3
F
2
F
1
T T
F = P*(F/P, i, n); F=P*(1+i)
n
58
TM F, KHI BIET P
59
TM F, P KHI BIET A
-10.000 4.000 4.000 4.000 4.000
0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4
P
F
A
T T
P = A*(P/A, i, n); P=A*{[(1+i)
n
-1]/i(1+i)
n
}
A = P*(A/P, i, n); A=P*{i(1+i)
n
/[(1+i)
n
-1]}
A = F*(A/F, i, n); A=F*{i / [(1+i)
n
-1]}
F = A*(F/A, i, n); F=A*{[(1+i)
n
-1]/i}
60
TM F, KHI BIET A
61
TM P, KHI BIET A
62
TM A, KHI BIET P
63
PHNG PHP DNG NHM CH TIU NG

Phn tch hiu qu ti chnh ca d n u t theo ch tiu
ng l c tnh n gi tr theo thi gian ca cc ch tiu chi
ph v li ch trong khon thi gian xem xt cc d n.
Xc nh thi k phn tch, so snh phng n: cc d n
phi c xem xt trong cng mt thi k phn tch (cng
thi im, cng thi gian hot ng).
64
MT S KHI NIM LIN QUAN NHM
CH TIU NG (tt)

u t b sung: L hnh thc u t, nhng thc cht l
b sung cho 1 d n no vi mc ch cc d n
nghin cu c a v cng thi k phn tch.
Thi gian thu chi thc: l cc thi im no trong dng
thu chi t=0, 1, 2, , n m cc gi tr thu chi tin mt pht
sinh.
65
PHNG PHP GI TR HIN TI:
(Net Present Value NPV)
NPV l phng php quy i cc gi tr thu chi thc trong
qu trnh u t v thi im ban u so snh nh gi.
n n
n n
i
D
i
V N
i
V N
i
V N
i
V N
NPV
) ( ) (
) (
) (
) (
) (
) (
) (
) (
+
+
+

+ +
+

+
+

+
+

=
1 1 1 1 1
2
2 2
1
1 1
0
0 0

n
n
t
t
t t
i
D
i
V N
NPV
) ( ) (
) (
+
+
+

=
1 1
0

Trong :
N
t
cc khon thu nm th t;
Vt cc khon chi nm th t;
i - sut thu li hay sut chit khu (%);
D gi tr thu hi do thanh l ti sn khi kt thc thi gian
tnh ton ca d n.
66
GIA TR HIEN TAI RONG
NET PRESENT VALUE NPV
Gia tr NPV phu thuoc vao:
Thi gian cua d an;
Ban than gia tr cua tng dong tien te;
Gia tr suat chiet khau.
La chon d an:
Khi co 1 d an: + NPV > 0
Khi co nhieu d an: + NPV > 0
+ NPV -> max

=
+
=
n
t
t
t
i
CF
NPV
0
) 1 (
67
GIA TR HIEN TAI RONG
NET PRESENT VALUE NPV (tt)
0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4
-10.000 2.000 4.000 - 6.000 7.000
T T
t=0
n
68
Nam CF PV
0 -10,000 -10.000,00
1 2,000 1.818,18
2 4,000 3.305,79
3 -6,000 -4.507,89
4 7,000 4.781,09
NPV : $ -4.602,83
GIA TR HIEN TAI RONG
NET PRESENT VALUE NPV (tt)
69
GIA TR HIEN TAI RONG
NET PRESENT VALUE NPV (tt)
70
BI TON NH GI CC D N U T

Mt d n u t c xem l ng gi khi tho mn iu
kin sau:

0 > NPV

V d11: Mt d n c s vn u t ban u (t=0) l 100
tr. ng, gi tr hon vn cc nm c th hin trong
bng, gi tr thu hi l 10 tr. ng. Thi gian s dng l 5
nm, mc thu li l 8%.
71
NPV = 20,135 > 0: do vy d n ng gi
45
35
30
25
20
-100
CF
30,645 0,681 10 35 5
25,726 0,735 35 4
23,815 0,794 30 3
Gi tr
thu hi
(tr. )
25
20
0
Hon
vn
(tr.)
21,433 0,857 2
= 20,135 NPV
18,519 0,925 1
-100,000 1,000 100 0
Gi tr quy
i (tr. )
1/(1+i)
t
(i=8%)
Vn
u t
(tr.)
Nm
th i
BI TON LA CHN D N U T

cc d n khi so snh c hon chnh, cc d n phi
cng thi k phn tch (cng thi im, cng thi gian hot
ng), v nguyn tc cn c u t b sung. u t b sung
c th l hnh thc u t thc s hay u t ti chnh.
D n c chn phi tho mn 2 iu kin:
- D n phi ng gi:
0 > NPV

- D n chn :
max NPV

73
BI TON LA CHN CC D N U T (tt)
Ta xt 2 trng hp:
Trng hp1: cc d n u t c thi gian s dng
bng nhau th ta xt theo 2 iu kin nu trn.
Trng hp 2: cc d n u t c thi gian s dng
khc nhau tin hnh:
- Xc nh bi s chung nh nht (BSCNN) cc khong
thi gian ca cc d n tham gia so snh;
- Tnh NPV ca cc d n vi thi gian s dng ca
mi d n l BSCNN;
- Chn d n tho mn 2 iu kin trn
74
BI TON LA CHN D N U T (tt)
V d 12
Dng phng php NPV chn d n u t
0 2 Tr. Gi tr cn li 4
6 3 Nm Thi gian s dng 5
18 11 Tr. Thu nhp hng nm 3
10 10 % Mc li sut 6
3,8 3 Tr. Chi ph hng nm 2
35 20 Tr. Tng vn u t 1
DA II DA I V KHON MC TT
PHNG PHP GI TR TNG LAI NFV
Ta c
n
i P F ) ( + = 1

=
+
=
n
t
t
t
i
CF
NPV
0
) 1 (

Suy ra

=

+
=
n
t
n t
t
i
CF
NFV
0
) 1 (

Tng t nh phng php NPV, ta gii quyt bi ton:
+ Bi ton nh gi d n u t:
0 > NFV
+ Bi ton la chn d n u t:
max
>
NFV
NFV 0

Tng t cc bc tnh ton cho 2 trng hp cc d n
c thi gian s dng bng nhau v khc nhau
76
PHNG PHP GI TR PHN B U AW

Ta c:
1 1
1
+
+
=
n
n
i
i i
P A
) (
) (


1 1 +
=
n
i
i
F A
) (


Suy ra
1 ) 1 (
) 1 (
) 1 (
0
+
+
(

+
=

=
n
n n
t
t
t
i
i i
i
CF
AW


1 ) 1 ( ) 1 (
0
+
(

+
=

=
n
n
t
n t
t
i
i
i
CF
AW


77
PHNG PHP GI TR PHN B U (T.T)

Tng t nh phng php NPV, ta gii quyt bi ton:
- Bi ton nh gi d n u t:
0 > AW

- Bi ton la chn d n u t:
max
0

>
AW
AW

Tng t cc bc tnh ton cho 2 trng hp:
- Cc d n c thi gian s dng bng nhau
- Cc d n c thi gian s dng khc nhau
78
PHNG PHP TNH SUT THU LI NI TI
(Internal Rate of Return - IRR)
Sut thu li ni ti l li sut quy i m trong gi tr
hin ti ca dng tin thu bng gi tr hin ti ca chi
0
*) 1 (
0
=
+
=

=
n
t
t
t
i
CF
NPV

D n chn c
max * = IRR i

Tm IRR
- S dng Exel
- Phng php ni suy
79
SUAT THU HOI NOI TAI
INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN - IRR
Gia tr IRR:
Ch phu thuoc vao ban than dong tien;
Khong thay oi khi thay oi moc thi gian;
Khong thay oi khi au t bo sung.
La chon: IRR > MARR (Minimum Attractive Rate of Return)
0
*) 1 (
0
=
+
=

=
n
t
t
t
i
CF
NPV
80
PHNG PHP NI SUY THUC
PHNG PHP IRR
Bc 1: Chn r
1
bt k v tnh NPV(r
1
)


Bc 2: Chn r
2
v tnh NPV(r
2
) dng cho r
2

- Nu NPV(r
1
) > 0 chn r
2
> r
1

- Nu NPV (r
1
)<0 chn r
2
< r
1

Tnh NPV(r
2
)
Bc 3: Ni suy r
3
) ( ) (
) (
) (
1 2
1 2
1 1 3
r NPV r NPV
r r
r NPV r r

=

Bc 4: Tnh NPV(r
3
)
- Nu NPV(r
3
) ------> 0 th r
3
# IRR
- Nu NPV (r
3
)--//--> 0 th tip tc tng t nh bc 3

81
BI TON SO SNH D N LOI B NHAU
Cc bc tin hnh:
Bc 1:
- Xc nh thi k phn tch ca d n (quy i cc d n v
cng thi im tnh ton v cng thi gian hot ng)
Bc 2:
- Tnh sut thu li ni ti ca d n chnh lch IRR
CL
(hay d
n b sung);
Bc 3:
- Nu TC CL
IRR IRR >
, chn d n c vn u t ln (chi ph
ln)
- Nu TC CL
IRR IRR <
, chn d n c vn u t nh (chi ph
nh).
82
SUAT THU HOI NOI TAI
INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN IRR (tt)
83
SUAT THU HOI NOI TAI
TRNG HP CO NHIEU NGHIEM
NPV
i%
Tnh NPV ng vi sut chit khu thay i t 0% - 90%,
th ct trc honh ti hai v tr (ng vi 2 nghim IRR)
84
SUAT THU HOI NOI TAI
TRNG HP CO NHIEU NGHIEM
NPV
i%
Chuyn CF ca nm th 0 sang nm th 1 vi i = MARR = 20%
85
SUAT THU HOI NOI TAI
TRNG HP CO NHIEU NGHIEM
NPV
i%
86
Thi gian tnh ton ca d n cn li 8 nm
PHNG PHP TNH SUT THU LI NI TI (tt)
u im:
- C tnh n s bin ng ca cc ch tiu theo thi gian v
tnh ton cho c i d n.
- Hiu qu c biu din di dng s tng i v c so
vi mt tr s hiu qu tiu chun.
- C th tnh n nhn t trt gi v lm pht
- Thng c dng ph bin trong kinh doanh.
Nhc im:
- Phng php ny ch cho kt qu chnh xc vi iu kin
th trng vn hon ho, mt iu kh m bo trong thc
t.
- Kh c lng chnh xc cc ch tiu cho c i d n.
- Vic tnh ton tr s IRR tng i phc tp, nht l vi
dng tin t i du nhiu ln.
87
PHNG PHP THI GIAN HON VN (tt)
Mc ch:
Xc nh thi gian hon vn
nh gi mc ri ro ca vn u t.
Phng php cng dn (khng xt sut chit khu):

=
=
T
t
t
CF V
0
0
+Vi T - thi gian hon vn
+D n chn
min T
PHNG PHP THI GIAN HON VN (tt)
Nu NCF = 0 th T - thi gian hon vn
Nu , lc NCF(t) < 0; NCF(t +1) > 0
v hay
T c xc nh theo cng thc sau
) ( ) 1 (
) (
) ( ) 1 (
) 1 (
) 1 (
t NCF t NCF
t NCF
t
t NCF t NCF
t NCF
t T
+
=
+
+
+ =
0 = NCF
) 1 ( ) ( ) ( + < < t NCF T NCF t NCF 1 + < < t T t
hay 3 nm 2 thng 12 ngy
20
50
50
40
30
-130
CF
35 20 5
40 50 4
-10 50 3
40
30
0
Hon vn
(tr.)
-60 2
-100 1
-130 130 0
NCF
(tr. )
Vn u t
(tr.)
Nm th
i
40 ) 4 (
10 ) 3 (
=
=
NCF
NCF
20 , 3
10 40
10
3 =
+

= T
PHNG PHP THI GIAN HON VN (tt)
PHNG PHP THI GIAN HON VN (tt)
Phng php cng dn ( xt n sut chit khu):
Nu NPV = 0 th T - thi gian hon vn
Nu NPV 0, lc NPV(t) < 0; NPV(t +1) > 0
v hay
T c xc nh theo cng thc sau
) ( ) 1 (
) (
) ( ) 1 (
) 1 (
) 1 (
t NPV t NPV
t NPV
t
t NPV t NPV
t NPV
t T
+
=
+
+
+ =
) 1 ( ) ( ) ( + < < t NPV T NPV t NPV 1 + < < t T t
0
) 1 (
0
=
+
=

=
T
t
t
t
i
CF
NPV
hay 4 nm 10 thng 24 ngy
0,519
0,592
0,675
0,769
0,877
1,000
1/(1+i)
t
vi
i=14%
10,38
29,60
33,76
30,76
26,31
-130
Gi tr
quy i
0,80 20 5
-9,58 50 4
-39,18 50 3
40
30
0
Hon
vn
(tr.)
-72,93 2
-103,69 1
-130 130 0
Gi tr cng
dn
Vn u t
(tr.)
Nm
th i
8 , 0 ) 5 (
58 , 9 ) 4 (
=
=
NPV
NPV
9 , 4
58 , 9 8 , 0
58 , 9
4 =
+

= T
PHNG PHP THI GIAN HON VN (tt)
PHNG PHP THI GIAN HON VN (tt)
p dng:
Phng php thi gian hon vn thng c s dng
trong qu trnh lp d n u t:
nh gi d n u t tt hay xu
Thv Ttc
So snh la chn d n u t xy dng
Thv1 < Thv2 Ttc
Nhc im:
Khng quan tm n dng tin sau thi gian hon
vn
PHNG
PHAP
U IM NHC IM
PP
-PHU H P MO I TRNG
CO NHE U BIE N O NG
-TNH TOAN N GIAN
-KHONG XET EN DONG TIEN TE
SAU TH I GIAN HOA N VO N
ROI
-TNH TOAN N GIAN -KHONG XET EN GIA TR TIEN TE
THEO TH I GIAN
NPV
-TNH TOAN CHNH XA C,
TRA NH C NHC
IE M CU A 2 PHNG
PHA P PP VA ROI
-TNH TOAN PHC TA P
- KHO XA C NH CHI PH S DUNG
VO N
IRR
-TRA NH C NHC
IE M CU A 2 PHNG
PHA P PP VA ROI
-KHONG CAN XA C NH
CHNH XAC CHI PH S
DU NG VON
-TNH TOAN PHC TA P
-TRONG MOT SO TRNG H P
PHNG TRNH CO NHIE U NGHIE M,
NE N PHI iU CHNH TRC KHI
S DUNG.
SO SANH CAC PHNG PHAP
94