Caulfield - Form Analysis 13 July 2013 Race 1 Betting might be the best guide.

Miss Steele was impressive last start and she looks the form horse. Monkstone (Moody/ Nolen and Coolmore in the ownership) demands attention as does Crystal Ruby (half to Crystal Lilly and Ellerton/Zahra have a knack with 2 year olds). Other possibles include Thiamandi, Lloyd Kennewell is a shrewd trainer and he wouldnt be bringing it over from Adelaide without thinking she had a chance. Change of Honour (Course and Distance winner) could surprise but first up may be an issue. Mount Zero for David Hayes is relatively experienced and the stable is in form. Sticking with Miss Steele based on fitness and a good win last start. Form line through Menage a Charge also a positive. Suggested Bet: Win bet Miss Steele Race 2: A lot of positives for Octavia and she was very good last start, Kayla Nisbet claims and she has been riding well in the city. Obvious danger Nadeem Lass and the other close finishers in the She Can Skate race, including Vicario and Nella Fantasia. Nella Fantasia finished that race particularly well and could be worth a ticket (B. Avdulla picks up the ride). Vicario has some talent, fitter and due a win but has barrier 14 to deal with. Summer Gem disappointing last start but might improve third up. Other query runner is Love for Ransom but she hasnt produced the goods as a 3 year old, Kulka first up for Moody/Nolen but some of the others could be fitter? Suggested Bet: Win bet Octavia, Each Way Nella Fantasia Exotics: 1, 4, 8, 9 Race 3: Interesting that Mick Kent is not claiming on Serene Star and Luke Nolen replaces Jackie Berriman. Got too far back in recent runs and returns to Caulfield where she has never missed a place. Well drawn here and guessing she will be ridden more positively. Struggling to find anything that can beat her, Counted pretty good last start but not sure she wants to win. Flash of Doubt could be the quinella horse and Johannapine is better than her last run Suggested Bet: Win bet Serene Star, Each Way Flash of Doubt Race 4: Star Rolling is a possible form line-Underestimation, Spring Cheer, Nisos, Uses the Lot between 2-3 lengths off him. An even bunch and perhaps Nisos is the best of them but Underestimation is racing consistently. Avas Delight really should have won last start and backs up and Weir has to be respected. But I think the improver and stand out is Space, could be a very good horse, backs up and

could be freshened after this for the a Spring campaign. Query runner is Bernadi, off a maiden straight to this level. Smerdon trained so watch to see if any money comes. Suggested Bet: Win bet Space Race 5: A horrible race in my view and nothing really stands out, 5/1 the Field with Aliberani, Rock Princess and Harry Trimbole leading the market. Done Nothing Wrong next in and likely to improve third up. Midnight Glory, second behind Zuma Roc and the extra distance might suit. Aliberani very well in at the weights, well drawn and probably should win but going with Rock Princess. Change of Jockey, scratched from last week and shrewd stable. Willing to risk Harry Trimbole but he will win one day. Suggested Bet: Rock Princess Each Way Update: Aliberani and Harry Trimbole both scratched Race 6: Mrs Onassis on a smash and grab raid and lots of positives. First up and two from two at course and distance but up against some other proven performers here. Second Effort, Pago Rock, Zamorar, Happy Galaxy and Elite Elle all have genuine claims. Willing to risk Zedi Knight and probably Skytrain (lovely type and move to Melbourne from Sydney for Snowden worth noting). Happy Galaxy first up for the Hawkes team and has to be respected but the fixed odds are too skinny for me. It could win and is obviously a good horse but willing to back against her. Second Effort will come in to the race if there is a downgrade to Soft, as will Elite Elle (but she is more versatile in terms of going) Pago Rock and Zamorar could be the form line and both were excellent last start, Zamorar meets Pago Rock at equal weights and I think she can overturn the placings. Zamorar might also have been set for this and does have a win second up. Lots of positives for Elite Elle, has a great weight drop and the stable is in form. Suggested Bet: Win bet Mrs Onassis, something Zamorar and Elite Elle Race 7: This is a race for either the believers or non-believers that weight makes the difference. Hai Lil is racing in great form but meets all of her recent contenders worse off at the weights, between 0.5kg to 2.5kg for them to make up between 0.3 to 3.3 lengths. If you go by weights and measures then Pillar of Creation and Committed are probably best placed to turn the tables. Also lots of positives for Winter Chiller here, two from two at the distance, track/distance winner and definitely worth a ticket.

Extra distance for Hai Lil could be viewed as either a negative or positive, Im going with the latter given her racing pattern. One that could surprise is possibly Kings Palace and has a win over Tooleybuc Kid, who ran very well last week when under a length off Space. Not sure Echuca form usually holds up but could worth an each way ticket. Other query runners Charmed Harmony, not sure what to make of him, down in weight, fitter and in a strong stable. Grand Emperor promised much but hasnt delivered but it owes me money so will have something small on it. Suggested Bet: Win bets Hai Lil, Winter Chiller. Each Way Kings Palace Race 8: A nightmare of a race and could be an F for the Quaddie. 4 horses or relative interest for me, Alpha Proxima, Reparations, Loot n Run and Taat Sensation but with no confidence Under the Eiffel is probably the best horse in the race, stable in form but willing to risk at current odds. Not convinced it is a Caulfield horse, only one win from twelve. Taat Sensation likely improver, up in class but probably worth a ticket. Offenders and Corvidae both in the fixed market and have huge weight drops but both are non-winners, their last wins were in 2011. Sophrosyne worth keeping an eye on and has been racing consistently. Alpha Proxima not running in great form but is a track and distance winner and in an open race could be worth something small each way Suggested Bet: No idea to be honest, playing around with 7,11,13,18 Update: Taat Sensation scratched.