Blog

Blog
8,000 A 10

Blog
Blog

1980 8,000 A 10%

800
1,600

1)

2)

3)

4)

2007
3.5%

1927 1987 1927 1000

1987 7,400 13,200
17,600 272,000

1200

(
)

7
( 1 )

70%

ERRON

8
( 2 )

Up Grade
Down Grade

Up Grade Down Grade

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( 3 )

 10
( 4 )

 11
( 1 )

 12
( 2 )

 13
( 3 )

20

 14
( 4 )

 15
( 5 )

 16

http://www.info.gov.hk/hkma

2006
11

 17
( 1 )

Blog

Blog

 18
( 2 )

1980
2000

 19
( 3 )

Blog

 20
( 4 )

Blog

1980
1980 2000

 21
( 5 )

7,500
7,500

 22
( 6 )

 23
( 7 )

 24
( 8 )

1% 1%

40% 70%
2%

 25
( 9 )

 26
( 10 )

 27
( 11 )

 28
( 1 )

2006 7 27
50.702007 1 23 93.00

70.00

 29
( 2 )

 30
( 3 )

40%

2003 2006 2006

2008
2006

 31
( 4 )

(Coca Cola)

 32
( 5 )

1,000
()

VISTA
IBM

( PC )
PC

IBM
IBM IBM

IBM IBM
IBM

 33
( 6 )

1949

 34
( 1 )

10%

5%
5%

10% 10%

 35
( 2 )

10%

10%
10%

10% 10%

10%

( 10% )
()

()

 36
( 3 )

10%

10%

()

 37
( 4 )

1%

Day Trader 10% 100

90

 38
( 5 )

 39
( 6 )

10% 15%

1990
2006
2008 2006
15% 9%

100%

 40
( 7 )

3-5% 12%-15% 15%

5% 10%

15%

 41
( 8 )

(
)

2004 ( 0386) 3
2.60 4 5 2005
5.40 3.90
6.60

 42
( 9 )

( 0002)
2008
15%

15%

9% (
)2006

2008

 43
( 10 )

0008

()

1%

30

1
5%

INTERNET

 44
( 11 )

FILM

CANON MINOLTA HP

 45
( 12 )

 46
( 13 )

8 5

8 5

7.8 1

70%

 47
( 14 )

50%

() ()

()

 48
( 15 )

20%

60%
40%
CALL
30%40%

)
)
)

2007 1 3 HKD28.25 2 2
HKD22.50 , 2 15 HKD23.30
HKD23.00 HKD20.00
2 21

 49
( 1 )

BLOG 200

(
)

100 20
80

 50
( 2 )

(
)
2006 6
1 5.25

 51
( 3 )

PERFECT( )

20000

MONEY
MARKET

2007227 1 10 27 28

 52
( 4 )

500 2006 8.1%

30%

 53
( 5 )

BRAKE

20%30%

 54
( 6 )

5 6 1 2

 55
( 7 )

1987 10 20%

 56
( 8 )

1989

1990

2002 911

2003 1999 2001

 57
( 9 )

2003

 58
( 10 )

(
)7.8 1

1997

85000

85000

85 97

2000

 59
( 11 )

 60
( 12 )

1000

P/E (Price / Earning

) 200

 61
( 13 )

23

 62
P/E ( 1 )

PPrice

10

EEarning 1
P/E 10
10
P/E 20 20 P/E 10

E
P/E 10
P/E
P/E P/E
P/E
P/E
(2007.2.6) P/E 15 P/E 12 22 1973
P/E

 63
P/E ( 2 )

( 857)

P/E
P/E 13.52

(2007.2.6)

P/E 14.37

(2007.2.6)

P/E 11.23

(2007.2.6)

P/E 11.42 (2007.2.6)

CONOCO PHILLIPS P/E 6.93 (2007.2.6)
( 1 ) P/E
()
( 2 ) P/E
P/E
P/E P/E
8 9 13 P/E

P/E

CONOCO PHILLIPS P/E

API

BLOG

 64
P/E ( 3 )

10 10%
10
P/E 13.52 7.39 (2007.2.6)
P/E 14.37 6.959 (2007.2.6)

P/E 13.80 (2007.2.6)

P/E 24.54 (2007.2.6)
P/E
5%
25%P/E

P/E P/E 11 P/E 60

20% 6020

 65
P/E ( 4 )

40% 2006 1 2 6.82

23.90 (2007 2 12 ) 350%
P/E 70 P/E 70 40% 1.75
P/E

 66
P/E ( 5 )

P/E 13.5 140 /

10.37
P/E 24.5 44.90 /
1.83
12% 10.37 X 112% = 11.61 P/E
13.5 11.61 X 13.5 = 156.79
25% 2.28 P/E 24.5 56.04
P/E
P/E
P/E
P/E
P/E P/E

P/E
P/E
60
P/E 70

(OPTION)

 67
P/E ( 6 )

P/E
E () E P/E
P/E P/E P/E
P/E P/E
P/E
P/E P/E
()
() P/E 1 +
1 = 2

 68
P/E ( 7 )

P/E
21 P/E 15 6.67
(SMART
MONEY)
10
15
1979-1980
15 750
4.78 (2007.2.6)

1 5.25

69
P/E ( 8 )

P/E 30 3.33
2-3% (
3%) ( 2.5 20%)

P/E P/E 2005

P/E 35 2006 39 ()
P/E
P/E P/E
P/E

P/E

 70
P/E ( 9 )

P/E

()()
RETURN ON EQUITY ROE

ROE ROE
ROE ROE
EQUITY
P/E

ROE

 71
200 ( 1 )

10 20 50

10 20
200 250

 72
200 ( 2 )

(2007.2.14)

()

15%20%

200
200 (10 20
50 ) 200

200 200
(2007.2.14)
200 15000
18000 200
15200 20302.20
200
200

 73
200 ( 3 )

200 200
(200 )
2 14 20302.20 200
17900 (20302 17900) 179000.1342 13.42% 200
13.4%
200 200

200
200
200

 74
200 ( 4 )

200 (2 14 )
200 13.4%
()

300 400
() ()

1000 2000 200

200

 75
200 ( 5 )

200
200 200
200

200 ()

200

200

200 200
90
1929

 76

BLOG 2

P/E P/E 200

()

 77
( 1 )

5% 100 95
5%
5%
1.5% 1.5%
15%1.5%
100
5 10

 78
( 2 )

80%
12 20%

BLOG

 79
( 1 )

1000

( 0857) ( 0386)

 80
( 2 )

(2006 ) 78
/ 78 / (2007.2.24) 60 /
75.22 / 4%

 81
( 3 )

60 /

1500 3000

100 ( 8500 /) 90
5 / 10
40 /
40 / 10
/ 40 /

()

 82
( 4 )

(2007 ) 3,200

 83
( 1 )

()

 84
( 2 )

P/E 30 (2007.2.14)
P/E 50 ()

P/E

QD11 2006 QD11

QD11
H

 85
( 3 )

HSBC ()
UBS ()
UBS 3
UBS
20 UBS
JP MORGAN CHASE CO. ()

P/E
API ELN

 86
( 4 )

2005

2006 5% 105
2006 2005 92% ()

140
/ 153 /

()
105
(
)
15%

 87
( 1 )

200

20 35 API

AIG

 88
( 2 )

 89

(MARCK COINC) VIXX

(PFIZER INC)

 90

1999 2003

15%

 91

(
) () (
)

 92

2008
()

 93

(INTEL)IBM INTEL

98% 2%

 94

()

 95
( 1 )

()

()
3,000

 96
( 2 )

 97
( 1 )

19961997

500
1.01 500

500
40% 800

 98
( 2 )

 99
( 3 )

MARGIN
10%

 100
( 4 )

( P/E / )
P/E 30
10%

 101
( 1 )

()

 102
( 2 )

P/E
200

 103
( 3 )

 104
( 4 )

()

 105
( 5 )

 106
( 6 )

 107
( 7 )

 108
( 8 )

 109

BLOG 105

(CARRY TRADE)

(
)

60 10
1520% 20%
10 20 320

 36