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P N THAM KHO TON KINH T 2011
PHN TON CHO NH KINH T (4 im)
Cu 1:
a) nh thc ca ma trn A l
3 2
1 1 1
det 1 1 1 3
1 1 1
m
A m m m
m
+
= + = +
+
b) Nu {0,-3} m th det 0 A . Do rank A=3
Nu m =0 th
2 1 2
3 1 3
1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 0 0 0
1 1 1 0 0 0
d d d
d d d
A
+
+
( (
( (
=
( (
( (

. Ta c rank A=1
Nu m=-3 th
2 1 2
1 3 3 1 3
2 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 2
1 2 1 1 2 1 0 3 3 0 1 1
1 1 2 2 1 1 0 3 3 0 0 0
d d d
d d d d d
A
+
+
( ( ( (
( ( ( (
=
( ( ( (
( ( ( (

.
Trong trng hp ny rank A=2.
Kt lun:
Vi {0,-3} m th rank(A) =3
Vi m =0 th rank(A) =1
Vi m =3 th rank(A)= 2
c) Khi m =1 th
2 1 1
1 2 1
1 1 2
A
(
(
=
(
(

.
Ta c det A=4. v
11 22 33 12 21 23 32 13 13
3; 1 A A A A A A A A A = = = = = = = = = . Vy ma trn nghch o
ca A l
3 1 1
4 4 4
3 1 1
1 1 3 1
1 3 1
4 4 4 4
1 1 3
1 1 3
4 4 4
A
(
(
(
(

(
(
= =
(
(
( (


(
(

d) Khi m=1 th A kh nghch. Do phng trnh cn gii tng ng vi
1
3 1 1 2 1 1 1 0 0
1
1 3 1 1 2 1 0 1 0
4
1 1 3 1 1 2 0 0 1
t
X A A

( ( (
( ( (
= = =
( ( (
( ( (

Cu 2:
Bc 1: Lp hm Lagrange ( )
2
1 2 1 2 1
C
L C , C , C C C 1000
1 0, 01
| |
= + +
|
+
\
Bc 2: Tm im dng ca hm Lagrange thng qua h phng trnh:
1
2
'
C 2
1
'
C 1 2
'
1 2
L 0 C 0
C 500
L 0 C 0 C 505
1, 01
505
L 0 1, 01C C 1010 0

= + =
=

= + = =


=

= + =

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Bc 3: Xt cc tr ca hm Lagrange:
1 1 1 2 1
1 1 1
2 1 2 2 2
1
1 2
'' '' ''
C C C C C
'' ''
C C C
'' '' ''
1 C C C C C 2
'' ''
C
'' '' ''
C C
L L L
0 1 1, 01
L L
0 1, 01
101
H L L L 1 0 1 ; H 1, 0201
1, 01 0 50 L L
1, 01 1 0
L L L

= = = = = =
Kt lun: V
1 2
H 0; H 0 > < nn hm li ch t cc i ton cc vi ( ) ( )
1 2
C , C 500, 505 =
Cu 3: V y l th trng c quyn nn ta c
1 2
D 1 D 2
Q Q ; Q Q = = vi
1 2
Q , Q l lng hng m
x nghip bn c.
Vy t
2 2
1 1 2 2 1 2 1 2
Q 300 P ; Q 500 2P ; C Q Q 20Q 10Q 10 = = = + + + + ta c hm li nhun l
2
2 2
1 1 2
Q
R C 300Q Q 250Q
2
= = +
iu kin cn li nhun t cc i l
1
2
'
Q 1
1
'
2 Q 2
0 4Q 280 0
Q 70
Q 80 0 3Q 240 0
= + =
=

= = + =

iu kin li nhun t cc i l
2
12 0 B AC 0
4 0 A 0
< <

< <

1 1 1 2 2 2
'' '' ''
Q Q Q Q Q Q
A 4; B 0; C 3 = = = = = =
Kt lun: Li nhun t cc i khi ( ) ( )
1 2
Q , Q 70, 80 =
PHN XC SUT (2 im)
Cu 1:
a) i vi th sinh trung bnh ta c s cy biu din cc kh nng c th khi tr li mi cu hi
trong thi nh sau
T s cy suy ra xc sut th sinh c 1 im mi cu tr li l
53
0.55 1 0.45 0.25
80
p = + =
Gi X l s im ca th sinh trung bnh, ta c
53
100,
80
X B
| |
|
\
. Ta cn tnh xc sut
55%
45%
100%
25%
75%
mi cu
hi
Bit r ni
dung c 4
p n
Khng bit
r ni dung
c 4 p n
1 im
1 im
0 im
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{ } 65 200 P X . Xp x phn phi ca X bng phn phi chun ( )
1431
, 66, 25;
64
N np npq N
| |
=
|
\
;
khi
( )
200 66, 25 65 66, 25
65 200 0, 5 ( 0.26) 0.5 (0.26) 0.6026
1431 1431
64 64
P X
| | | |
| |

| |
= = + =
| |
| |
\ \
b) Gi X l s thi sinh t trong s 90.000 th sinh. Ta c (90.000, 0, 6026) X B .
Gi tr tin chc modX tha mn
mod 54234 0.3974 mod 54234 0.6026 np q X np p X + + .
Vy modX=54234
Cu 2: Biu din s cy cc kh nng c th ca mi bng n.
a) T l bng n ca nh my X c b phn KCS xc nhn t tiu chun l
0,85 0, 95 0,15 0,10 0, 8075 0, 015 0, 8225 82, 25% p = + = + = =
b) Mt khch hng mua mt bng n ca nh my X c nhn t tiu chun ca b phn KCS.
Xc sut bng ny tht s l bng t tiu chun do nh my X sn xut l
1
1 2
0, 8075 0, 8075 323
0.9818
0,8075 0, 015 0, 8225 329
p
p p
= = = =
+ +

85%
15%
10%
90%
Mi bng
n
t tiu
chun
(bng tt)
Khng t
tiu chun
(bng hng)
KCS cng
nhn
KCS khng
cng nhn
95%
5%
KCS cng
nhn
KCS khng
cng nhn
P
1
=0,8075
P
2
=0,015

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PHN THNG K ( 4 im).
Cu 1: Mu c vit li nh sau:
Thi gian sng ( gi) 700 950 1050 1150 1250 1350 1500
S bng n 3 14 23 38 36 26 4
a) Bc 1: Gi X l tui th trung bnh ca mt bng n trong mu kho st
( )
( )
i i
2
i i
2
i i
1
X x n 1176, 0417(gio);
n
1
s x X n 148, 8344(gio)
n
1
s x X n 149, 3539(gio)
n 1
= =
= =
= =

Bc 2: Vi n= 144>30, tra bng Laplace ( )

/ 2 / 2
z 0, 49 z 2, 33
2

= = =
Bc 3: Tnh chnh xc
/ 2
s
z 28, 9995(gio)
n

= =
Bc 4: Vy vi tin cy 98% th khong c lng tui th trung bnh ca cc bng n thuc
l hng ny l ( ) 1147, 0422;1205, 0412 (gio)
b) Bc 1: Gi
0
l tui th trung bnh ca bng n do cng ty sn xut theo s liu trc y
Gi l tui th trung bnh ca bng n do cng ty sn xut theo thc t.
0
1220(gio) =
0 0
1 0
H :
H :
=

Bc 2:
( )
2
i i
1
X 1176, 0417(gio);s x X n 149, 3539(gio)
n 1
= = =

Bc 3: Vi n = 144>30 tra bng Laplace ( )
/ 2 / 2
1
z 0, 49 z 2, 33
2

= = =
Bc 4: Tnh gi tr so snh:
( )
0
X
Z n 3.5319
s

= =
Bc 5: V
/ 2
Z 3.5319 z 2.33

= > = nn ta bc b H
0
. Kt lun: Vi mc ngha 2% th tui th
trung bnh ca bng n c thay i.
c) Theo c lng tui th trung bnh bi cho:
1 1
25(gio); 98% = =
Theo c lng t l bng n khng t tiu chun bi cho:
2 2
6% 0, 06; 95% = = =
Vi c lng tui th trung bnh ta c
2
/ 2 1
1 / 2 1
1 1
z .s s
z n 193, 7604 194
n

| |
= = =
|

\
Vi c lng t l bng khng t tiu chun ta c
( )
( )
2
/ 2
2 / 2 2 2
2
2
z .f (1 f ) f (1 f )
z . n 214, 08 215
n

= = =

Trong f 40 / 144; =
Ta chn c mu ln l
2
n 215 = .
Kt lun: Nu mun php c lng tui th trung bnh v c lng t l nhng bng khng t
tiu chun th phi chn thm 215-144 = 71 bng n.
Cu 2:
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a) Bc 1: Gi f l t l xe lu thng trn xa l XL theo mu kho st f 16 / 64 0, 25 = =
Bc 2: Tra bng Laplace ta c
/ 2 / 2
(z ) z 2, 33
2

= =
Bc 3: Tnh chnh xc
/ 2
f (1 f )
z . 0,1261
n

= =
Bc 4: Vy vi tin cy 98% th khong c lng t l xe lu thng trn xa l XL c h thng
thng khng t an ton l ( ) p 12, 39;37, 61 %
b) Bc 1: Gi
0
p l t l xe lu thng trn xa l XL c h thng thng khng t mc an ton
vo nm trc theo bo co.
Gi p l t l xe lu thng trn xa l XL c h thng thng khng t mc an ton theo nm nay.
0
p 18% =
0 0
1 0
H : p p
H : p p
=

Bc 2: f= 0,25
Bc 3: Tra bng Laplace ( )
/ 2 / 2
1
z 0, 49 z 2, 33
2

= = =
Bc 4: Tnh gi tr so snh
0
0 0
(f p ). n
Z 1, 4576
p (1 p )

= =

Bc 5: Vy
/ 2
Z z

. Kt lun: Vi mc ngha 2% th bo co vn cn ng tin cy.

***
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