introduction

simulation

result analysis

conclusions and future work

conlcusions

EMPLOYING LOCAL AND GLOBAL SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES TO GUIDE USER INTERFACE DEVELOPMENT OF ENERGY CERTIFICATION AND COMPLIANCE SOFTWARE TOOLS

Filippo Monari filippo.monari@strath.ac.uk

Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering University of Strathclyde

September 2012

A Sensitivity Analysis on the SBEMs inputs

University of Strathclyde

introduction

simulation

result analysis

conclusions and future work

conlcusions

Abstract
This work reports on how sensitivity analysis techniques, applied to the inputs of calculation engines for energy certication and regulation compliance purposes, can provide guidance for simplifying their user interfaces and simplify model imput.

A Sensitivity Analysis on the SBEMs inputs

University of Strathclyde

introduction

simulation

result analysis

conclusions and future work

conlcusions

SBEM

The focus of the research is SBEM (Simplied Building Energy Model) which is the standard software used in the UK for energy certication and regulation compliance of non-domestic buildings. It was developed by BRE (Building Research Establishment), based on the BS EN ISO 13790 Standard.

A Sensitivity Analysis on the SBEMs inputs

University of Strathclyde

introduction

simulation

result analysis

conclusions and future work

conlcusions

analysed cases

Two building models from the iSBEMs installation package have been considered: Approval Case 1 (case 1) Example Building Complete (case 2)

A Sensitivity Analysis on the SBEMs inputs

University of Strathclyde

introduction

simulation

result analysis

conclusions and future work

conlcusions

analysed cases

Two building models from the iSBEMs installation package have been considered: Approval Case 1 (case 1) Example Building Complete (case 2)

A Sensitivity Analysis on the SBEMs inputs

University of Strathclyde

introduction

simulation

result analysis

conclusions and future work

conlcusions

analysed cases

Two building models from the iSBEMs installation package have been considered: Approval Case 1 (case 1) Example Building Complete (case 2)

A Sensitivity Analysis on the SBEMs inputs

University of Strathclyde

introduction

simulation

result analysis

conclusions and future work

conlcusions

analysed cases

Two building models from the iSBEMs installation package have been considered: Approval Case 1 (case 1) Example Building Complete (case 2)

A Sensitivity Analysis on the SBEMs inputs

University of Strathclyde

introduction

simulation

result analysis

conclusions and future work

conlcusions

analysed cases
case2
it is developed on two levels:
ground oor: supermarket and coffee shops rst oor: ofces

it is composed of 19 thermal zones total area 2900 square metres it is provided with a solar energy system it is served by an HWS and HVAC (heating, cooling and heat recovery)

A Sensitivity Analysis on the SBEMs inputs

University of Strathclyde

introduction

simulation

result analysis

conclusions and future work

conlcusions

employed methods

Two different sensitivity techniques were applied to the input data required: the Morris Method which is used to screen the input factors the Monte Carlo Analysis which is used to assess the effects of groups of parameters

A Sensitivity Analysis on the SBEMs inputs

University of Strathclyde

introduction

simulation

result analysis

conclusions and future work

conlcusions

employed methods

Two different sensitivity techniques were applied to the input data required: the Morris Method which is used to screen the input factors the Monte Carlo Analysis which is used to assess the effects of groups of parameters

A Sensitivity Analysis on the SBEMs inputs

University of Strathclyde

introduction

simulation

result analysis

conclusions and future work

conlcusions

employed methods

Two different sensitivity techniques were applied to the input data required: the Morris Method which is used to screen the input factors the Monte Carlo Analysis which is used to assess the effects of groups of parameters

A Sensitivity Analysis on the SBEMs inputs

University of Strathclyde

introduction Morris Method

simulation

result analysis

conclusions and future work

conlcusions

elementary effects
The Morris Method characterizes the sensitivity of a model respect to its inputs through the concept of elementary effects (EE)

Denition
the elementary effects (EE) can be dened as approximations of the partial derivatives of the model EEi =
where: ei : is a zero vector wherein only the position i is in equal to 1 y: is the fucntion representing the model to assess x: a vector of variables

+ ei i ) y (x ) y (x i

A Sensitivity Analysis on the SBEMs inputs

University of Strathclyde

introduction Morris Method

simulation

result analysis

conclusions and future work

conlcusions

calculating elementary effects

the EE are estimated along traictories of points, randomly selected on an adequately discretized space but each one differing from the preious just in one coordinate.

Denition
the discretized space is represented by p-level k-dimensional grid, where: k: number of input variables of the model p: assumed number of steps dening the values of the variables

A Sensitivity Analysis on the SBEMs inputs

University of Strathclyde

introduction Morris Method

simulation

result analysis

conclusions and future work

conlcusions

calculating elementary effects

For each parameter, a nite distribution (Fi ) of r EE (r within [10, 50]) is estimated Then for each Fi are calculated:
1 absolute mean: i = r magnitude of the effect r t =1 |EEit |,

indicator of the

r 1 2 standard deviation: i = r t =1 (EEit i ) , 1 indicator of the typology of the effect

A Sensitivity Analysis on the SBEMs inputs

University of Strathclyde

introduction Morris Method

simulation

result analysis

conclusions and future work

conlcusions

calculating elementary effects

For each parameter, a nite distribution (Fi ) of r EE (r within [10, 50]) is estimated Then for each Fi are calculated:
1 absolute mean: i = r magnitude of the effect r t =1 |EEit |,

indicator of the

r 1 2 standard deviation: i = r t =1 (EEit i ) , 1 indicator of the typology of the effect

A Sensitivity Analysis on the SBEMs inputs

University of Strathclyde

introduction Morris Method

simulation

result analysis

conclusions and future work

conlcusions

calculating elementary effects

For each parameter, a nite distribution (Fi ) of r EE (r within [10, 50]) is estimated Then for each Fi are calculated:
1 absolute mean: i = r magnitude of the effect r t =1 |EEit |,

indicator of the

r 1 2 standard deviation: i = r t =1 (EEit i ) , 1 indicator of the typology of the effect

A Sensitivity Analysis on the SBEMs inputs

University of Strathclyde

introduction Morris Method

simulation

result analysis

conclusions and future work

conlcusions

effect typology

i i

0.1 xi has an almost linear effect

i i i i

0.1 0.5
i i

0.5 xi has a monotonic effect 1 xi has a quasi-monotonic effect

1 xi has a non-linear non-monotocnic effect

A Sensitivity Analysis on the SBEMs inputs

University of Strathclyde

introduction Morris Method

simulation

result analysis

conclusions and future work

conlcusions

effect typology

i i

0.1 xi has an almost linear effect

i i i i

0.1 0.5
i i

0.5 xi has a monotonic effect 1 xi has a quasi-monotonic effect

1 xi has a non-linear non-monotocnic effect

A Sensitivity Analysis on the SBEMs inputs

University of Strathclyde

introduction Morris Method

simulation

result analysis

conclusions and future work

conlcusions

effect typology

i i

0.1 xi has an almost linear effect

i i i i

0.1 0.5
i i

0.5 xi has a monotonic effect 1 xi has a quasi-monotonic effect

1 xi has a non-linear non-monotocnic effect

A Sensitivity Analysis on the SBEMs inputs

University of Strathclyde

introduction Morris Method

simulation

result analysis

conclusions and future work

conlcusions

effect typology

i i

0.1 xi has an almost linear effect

i i i i

0.1 0.5
i i

0.5 xi has a monotonic effect 1 xi has a quasi-monotonic effect

1 xi has a non-linear non-monotocnic effect

A Sensitivity Analysis on the SBEMs inputs

University of Strathclyde

introduction uncertainty analysis

simulation

result analysis

conclusions and future work

conlcusions

macro-parameters

the parameters for both the cases have been collected and grouped in order to create comparable macro-parameters; then for each one of them it has been attributed: a probability distribution and suitable uncertainty factors (standard deviation ( ) or Delta () depending on the distribution) based on a literature review

A Sensitivity Analysis on the SBEMs inputs

University of Strathclyde

introduction uncertainty analysis

simulation

result analysis

conclusions and future work

conlcusions

macro-parameters

the parameters for both the cases have been collected and grouped in order to create comparable macro-parameters; then for each one of them it has been attributed: a probability distribution and suitable uncertainty factors (standard deviation ( ) or Delta () depending on the distribution) based on a literature review

A Sensitivity Analysis on the SBEMs inputs

University of Strathclyde

introduction uncertainty analysis

simulation

result analysis

conclusions and future work

conlcusions

macro-parameters

the parameters for both the cases have been collected and grouped in order to create comparable macro-parameters; then for each one of them it has been attributed: a probability distribution and suitable uncertainty factors (standard deviation ( ) or Delta () depending on the distribution) based on a literature review

A Sensitivity Analysis on the SBEMs inputs

University of Strathclyde

introduction uncertainty analysis

simulation

result analysis

conclusions and future work

conlcusions

distributions and uncertainties

macro-parameter ext wall U inf 50 Pa lighting Wattage zone area ext wall area hot water generator sesonal efciency effective thermal mass HVAC cooling sesonal efciecny SFP air distribution system SFP zone thermal units HVAC heating sesonal efciency heat recovery sesonal efciency lighting control parasitic power Air ow rate MEV id 1 20 22 14 38 7 2 11 13 19 12 10 23 16 distribution normal normal uniform log-normal log-normal uniform normal uniform uniform uniform uniform uniform uniform uniform uncertainty factor(%) set 0, 1, 2 15, 15, 15 30, 30, 30 10, 10, 10 2, 2, 2 2, 2, 2 3, 3, 3 7, 7, 7 3, 3, 3 3, 3, 3 3, 3, 3 3, 3, 3 3, 3, 3 3, 3, 3 3, 3, 3 FIXED LIP class MIP

A Sensitivity Analysis on the SBEMs inputs

University of Strathclyde

introduction uncertainty analysis

simulation

result analysis

conclusions and future work

conlcusions

distributions and uncertainties

macro-parameter SFP MEV window frame factors window aspect ratios window areas thermal bridges Psi values glazing U glazing solar transmission glazing light transmission SES storage volumes SES panels areas ext wall length ext door areas int wall U length hot water pipework in zones zone height int wall length int wall areas id 17 40 41 39 24-36 4 5 6 9 8 37 42 3 21 15 43 44 distribution uniform log-normal log-normal log-normal uniform normal uniform uniform log-normal log-normal normal log-normal normal normal normal normal log-normal uncertainty factor(%) set 0, 1, 2 3, 3, 3 2, 2, 2 4, 4, 4 2, 10, 20 10, 15, 20 5, 10, 15 5, 10, 15 5, 10, 15 3, 15, 30 2, 10, 20 1, 5, 10 2, 10, 20 15, 20, 25 1, 5, 10 1, 5, 10 1, 5, 10 2, 10, 20 APPROX LIP class FIXED LIP

A Sensitivity Analysis on the SBEMs inputs

University of Strathclyde

introduction simulation process

simulation

result analysis

conclusions and future work

conlcusions

work ow

step 1
the Morris Method has been run according to the dened uncertainties

A Sensitivity Analysis on the SBEMs inputs

University of Strathclyde

introduction simulation process

simulation

result analysis

conclusions and future work

conlcusions

work ow

step 2
for each output the variables have been classied in most important (MIP) and least important (LIP) parameters

A Sensitivity Analysis on the SBEMs inputs

University of Strathclyde

introduction simulation process

simulation

result analysis

conclusions and future work

conlcusions

work ow
step 3
LIP have been divided in: FIXED LIP: coefcients mainly relative to the building services, for which the uncertainties are low and suitable approximated values could be easily found through technical specication or literature. APPROX LIP: physical properties and dimensions of secondary importance for the models, which could be dened within certain ranges

A Sensitivity Analysis on the SBEMs inputs

University of Strathclyde

introduction simulation process

simulation

result analysis

conclusions and future work

conlcusions

work ow
step 3
LIP have been divided in: FIXED LIP: coefcients mainly relative to the building services, for which the uncertainties are low and suitable approximated values could be easily found through technical specication or literature. APPROX LIP: physical properties and dimensions of secondary importance for the models, which could be dened within certain ranges

A Sensitivity Analysis on the SBEMs inputs

University of Strathclyde

introduction simulation process

simulation

result analysis

conclusions and future work

conlcusions

work ow
step 3
LIP have been divided in: FIXED LIP: coefcients mainly relative to the building services, for which the uncertainties are low and suitable approximated values could be easily found through technical specication or literature. APPROX LIP: physical properties and dimensions of secondary importance for the models, which could be dened within certain ranges

A Sensitivity Analysis on the SBEMs inputs

University of Strathclyde

introduction simulation process

simulation

result analysis

conclusions and future work

conlcusions

work ow

step 4
the possibility of use approximated values has been investigated by running Monte Carlo simulations for increasing APPOX LIPs uncertainties

A Sensitivity Analysis on the SBEMs inputs

University of Strathclyde

introduction Morris method

simulation

result analysis

conclusions and future work

conlcusions

Morris Method - energy demand

The total energy demand showed linear and monotonic effects for most of the MIP and LIP with the majority of them having a monotonic inuence. Non-linear effects are caused by glass transmittances, internal wall areas, zone areas (ids: 4, 3 and 14).

A Sensitivity Analysis on the SBEMs inputs

University of Strathclyde

introduction Morris method

simulation

result analysis

conclusions and future work

conlcusions

Morris Method - energy consumption

All the MIP variables have linear and monotonic effect. Only the U of the external envelope has a non-linear inuence. Considering the LIP irregular inuences are shown by effective thermal mass, initration at 50 Pa, heat recovery efciency, glazing U, envelop area, int wall areas and U (ids: 2, 20, 4, 38, 44, 3).
A Sensitivity Analysis on the SBEMs inputs University of Strathclyde

introduction Morris method

simulation

result analysis

conclusions and future work

conlcusions

Morris Method - asset rating

The number of non-linearities and non-monotonic effects increases for the building asset rating. All the parameters have at least a non-monotonic effect.

A Sensitivity Analysis on the SBEMs inputs

University of Strathclyde

introduction Monte Carlo

simulation

result analysis

conclusions and future work

conlcusions

Monte Carlo - increased uncertainties

output energy demand energy consumption asset rating index s(MJ /m2 ) s /x s(MJ /m2 ) s /x s(MJ /m2 ) s /x set 0 3.758 0.016 4.678 0.013 0.581 0.016 set 1 3.856 0.016 4.59 0.013 0.594 0.016 set 2 4.737 0.020 4.798 0.013 0.629 0.017

The incremented uncertainties for the APPROX-LIP, do not lead to any relevant growth of the global uncertainties. Comparing the different values of standard deviation, increments are always less than or equal to the 1.5% of the mean

A Sensitivity Analysis on the SBEMs inputs

University of Strathclyde

introduction nal results

simulation

result analysis

conclusions and future work

conlcusions

quantifying the error increments

the previous result show that it should be possible to replace the "most exact" set of input data (i.e. in these example SET-0), with an "approximated" one (i.e. in these examples SET-1 and SET-2), without sensibly affecting the result of the calculation

A Sensitivity Analysis on the SBEMs inputs

University of Strathclyde

introduction nal results

simulation

result analysis

conclusions and future work

conlcusions

quantifying the error increments

The possible increment in the percentage errors produced could be calculated as follow:

increased error
IEi ,n = 2( %i ,n %i ,0 )
where: %i ,0 : standard deviation as % of the mean, relative to the probability distribution of the i th SBEMs output produced by the "most exact" set of data available. It represents the unavoidable amount of uncertainty %i ,n : standard deviation as % of the mean, relative to the probability distribution of the i th SBEMs output produced by the "approximated" set of data. It represents the sum of the unavoidable amount and the increment in the uncertainty

A Sensitivity Analysis on the SBEMs inputs

University of Strathclyde

introduction nal results

simulation

result analysis

conclusions and future work

conlcusions

quantifying the error increments

error increments for case 1 and case 2

case case 1 output energy demand energy consumption asset rating case 2 energy demand energy consumption asset rating set 1 0.02 001 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 set 2 0.05 0.02 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.01

A Sensitivity Analysis on the SBEMs inputs

University of Strathclyde

introduction

simulation

result analysis

conclusions and future work

conlcusions

main ndings

[1]
At a general level the calculation method showed an almost linear character. In particular, the most inuencing factors have linear and monotonic inuences on SBEMs outputs.

A Sensitivity Analysis on the SBEMs inputs

University of Strathclyde

introduction

simulation

result analysis

conclusions and future work

conlcusions

main ndings
[2]
The opportunity to approximate the two main models as meta-models depending only upon the MIP has been demonstrated, as well as the possibility of considering the least important ones in a simplied way. LIP have been divided, depending on the kind of possible approximations: FIXED-LIP: parameters that can be xed to reasonable values APPROX-LIP: parameters which can be dened within rabges

A Sensitivity Analysis on the SBEMs inputs

University of Strathclyde

introduction

simulation

result analysis

conclusions and future work

conlcusions

main ndings
[3]
A criterion to quantify the error incremnt caused by the possible approximation has been proposed: IEi ,n = 2( %i ,n %i ,0 )
where: %i ,0 : standard deviation as % of the mean, relative to the probability distribution of the i th SBEMs output produced by the "most exact" set of data available. It represents the unavoidable amount of uncertainty %i ,n : standard deviation as % of the mean, relative to the probability distribution of the i th SBEMs output produced by the "approximated" set of data. It represents the sum of the unavoidable amount and the increment in the uncertainty

A Sensitivity Analysis on the SBEMs inputs

University of Strathclyde

introduction

simulation

result analysis

conclusions and future work

conlcusions

applications

The method described is exible and not software dependent. It can help in: guiding the design of user interfaces developing guide lines for all the data input and collection processes structuring the assessors training, so that the focus would be proportionally distributed depending on the inuence and importance of each input parameter

A Sensitivity Analysis on the SBEMs inputs

University of Strathclyde

introduction

simulation

result analysis

conclusions and future work

conlcusions

future developments

[1]
the design and denition of procedures and tools involved in the analysis of a multitude of buildings should be based on relevant statistically results. Thus the methodology in this paper should be applied to a statistically relevant sample of buildings to conrm the results presented.

A Sensitivity Analysis on the SBEMs inputs

University of Strathclyde

introduction

simulation

result analysis

conclusions and future work

conlcusions

future developments

[2]
there is a signicant gap between predicted and real data. In future developments a similar approach could be adopted in calibration studies employing metered data in order to see how and to what extent different parameters contribute to the mismatch between predictions and reality.

A Sensitivity Analysis on the SBEMs inputs

University of Strathclyde

introduction

simulation

result analysis

conclusions and future work

conlcusions

thank you for your interest and attention

A Sensitivity Analysis on the SBEMs inputs

University of Strathclyde