Intro to math modeling

This exercise is adapted from E. A. Bender, An introduction to mathematical modeling, Dover, New York, 2000.

We want to device a strategy to minimize the cost of forest res. Let B(t) be the area of forest burnt by time t, where time is measured from the time of detection, t = 0. We assume that the re has stopped when B (t) = 0. Let Ta be the time the re is rst attacked and Tc the time it is brought under control, i.e Tc is the least t > 0 such that B (t) = 0. Let x be the size of the re ghting force (assumed constant from Ta to Tc ). The cost for ghting a particular re are: Cb ; the cost per acre of re (burnt acreage plus cleanup expanses). Cx ; the cost in support and salary per re ghter per unit time. Cs ; one-shot costs per re ghter (such as transportation to and from the sites). Ct ; costs per unit time, while the re is burning, for maintaining the organization on an emergency basis, redirecting trafc, and so on. Thus, the total cost is C = Cb B(Tc ) + (xCx + Ct )(Tc Ta ) + xCs . To minimize C as a function of x, we must determine B(t). We assume that each re ghter reduces the burning rate of the re at a constant rate E, that is, decreases B (t) by E. Thus B (t) = b(t) B (t) = b(t) E(t Ta )x for t < Ta , for Ta t Tc , (1)

where b(t) is to be determined. The simplest assumption is to take b(t) = G + Ht, where G and H are constants, consistent with the re spreading circularly at uniform rate. 1 Find Tc by setting B (Tc ) = 0 in (1). Show from the expression you obtain that Ex > H is required if the re is ever going to be stopped. What does this mean? 2 Solve (1) to obtain B(tb ), and show that this leads to the following expression for C: C = C0 + Cs z + [( HCx / E) + Ct + (Cb ba /2)]ba Ez

where C0 is a constant, ba = b(Ta ) = G + HTa , and z = x H / E.

2 3 Use the expression for C to derive the optimal value for x: x = ba H Ca + 2Ct /ba + 2 HCx / Eba + 2Cs E E

Midterm

4 Discuss in words the implications of the model, criticize the conclusions that seems unrealistic and the assumptions that led to these conclusions, etc. 5 The model does not take into account human cost related to injuries or deaths of the reghters. How would yu include such a cost in the model?