Review_15/06/13 - ( Rating - 1/12 ) Extremely Negative - High Risk - Rupee has Broken Down / Nifty is also Breaking Down

n - Higher Low needs to be in Place for sideways trend) / AD is -ve / TRIN is -ve / Net 52 WK Hi/Low is +ve (--) Big Picture is Negative | 0 is extreme -ve | 1 is -ve | 2 is Netural | 3 is +ve | 4 is extreme +ve | Indian Rupee - ( 0/3 ) Rupee has broken up on the upside & resistance 54.931, 55.821,56,57 has been Broken. Downside Levels are now at 55.821, 54.931, 54.192, 53.856 & 53.170 & 51.905 Rupee has given a Breakout on All timeframes. Ascending triangle upward Breakout Measured Move Target is 61.734 ( Currency Wars are beating Emearging Market Currencies ) Rupee was weakned by strengthing Dollar but Rupee was not able to recover even on Weaking Dolla Rupee is continuing weaking trend -ve for stock markets Nifty - ( 0/3 ) Move From 4500 (19-12-2011) to 5631 (22-02-2012) is Uptrend & there was retracement upto 4761 (61.8% Retracement) upto 05-06-2012 Market Restarted Uptrend from 4761 (05-06-2012) to 6110 (29-01-2013) There was correction from 6110 (29-012013) Upto 5477 (10-04-2013) After Entire Move from 5477 (10-04-2013) to 6229 (20-052013) There is now Ongoing correction (if Higher Low is formed at 5869 OR 5791) to restart Sideways or Uptrend Breakout above Previous High of 6102 6140 6110 has Failed as Price moved below 6000 & 5970 Levels.... & Now Above 200 MA (May be this is Retest on Upside ... Neckline of 5950 of Fresh H & S is Broken Measured Decline is upto 5700 (78.6 % Rectracement of 5477 to 6229 is Possible .... Need to be careful )

Dimensions Price Major Trend line break from Historic Pivot lows of 2532 - 4534 - 4775 was threatned & break that @ 5453 is SAVED (Upon Fall below 5480 target upto 5500 50% & Now major Fib target @ 61.8 - 5245 is Retracement of Move from 4800 to 6100.) Volume After Previous F&O expiry (@ 5961 ) Nifty has now build huge Short Position / Rally but Mid Month Reversal have failed (As per Nifty's 56 Day Cycle Trend might change at or near 08-07-2013 might coincides with Mid month Reversal date of has broken down only for 1 day & now broken on upside - Next Reversal day to check is 08-07-2013 (+56Days) to 12-07-2013.... Bearish Vew Continues .. Bull Market Uptrend may start after Nifty Previous Life High is taken out (Sideways trend may start if higher low is created...) Sentiments Sentiments are now -ve as people are waiting of signs of Weekness to Short at these High Levels & Not willing to participate in this Rally at High Levels as Risk Reward is not favourable . -ve Earnings reported in Q4 with Many -ve Surprises - Delicate Political condition Looms Large TIme Down Trend Might Continue Upto Mid Month Reversal Date of 14-06-2013 & Quadruple Witching (Quaterly) Settlement is on 3rd Friday of 21-06-2013 Markets can Turn Choppy

Open Intrest (OI) NIFTY FUTURE-CMP(5805.95) is currently in BEAR trend .The Nifty Jun series is trading at 2.45 Rs discount.Cumulatively for all series contract Nifty future net added 0.23 lakh position in OI and this accounts to 0.13 % of Total OI in all series and cumulatively trading in average premium of Rs 15.72 .The OI is also increasing with trend and discount of share is also increasing indicating down move At current price strike the activity is tilted to call side and writing of call is increasing The Nifty Put option is trading at premium so market is expecting bearishness.NIFTY PCR (Position Wise) - 0.95 & (Money Wise) - 0.71 P & F Chart There is Resistance at 5950 & Support at 5550

Breadth Charts - ( 0/3 ) (Rating 1 for Each +ve) Advance Decline Line (0/1) If the Nifty is rising but the number of stocks advancing is dropping, then the trend is in trouble and may pause soon or even reverse. Since AD Line is Lower Than -28000 is moving Down with Downtrend (AD Line is starting to Turn but still not Breaking Out) Mid Cap participation is missing) as some Balance in AD needs to be achieved Some Midcaps are reverse (advancing) to balance the Line & recover from Over Sold Levels - But some Large caps are at life time Lows & Index Heavy Weights are starting to Decline Trader's Index (TRIN Chart) (0/1) To Incorporate Volume of Advance Decline Analysis - TRIN is unusual in that it moves opposite to the Nifty TRIN is a ratio where 1.0 means selling and buying pressure are equal TRIN BELOW 1.0 (More Volume in stocks that are advancing) & Above 1.0 (More Volume in stocks that are Declining Nifty has near 1.1 after declining from 1.4 indicating Still more stocks (Midcaps & Largecaps ) are Declining & More Index Heavy Weights are being sold Rather Than Midcaps (Midcap Index is constant)& More Stocks Declining Confirms Down Trend NSE Net Monthly High & Low (0/1) More Stocks in the index making new highs versus new lows if Number is Reducing Trend is in Trouble.The Rising New Highs indicate Markets Buying pressure is accelerating (Environment & Trend) is Positive There is Huge Decrease in Highs & Low Numbers into their 52 week High v/s towards Lows (Nearly Zero) ....Indicates Strength in Downward Trend Strength

India Vix Volatility Index (or Fear Index or VIX) is a weighted measure of the implied volatility.Market Makers hedge the market Play, the Down Volume is always a factor & used in Direct Coorlation with the VIX & They Together have Indirect correlation with Index ie Vix & DVol is Down; Market will move Up AND Vix & DVol is Up;Market will move Down.Indirect relation between Vix & DVOL leads to Sidewise Index

VIX is in Range of 13 to 19 Since Jun'12 - Fear/ Volitality is Breaking Out & Increasing with Down Trend indicating Traders expecting Down Trend ( Down Volume & Down Tick )....Volume is also Down.... But Vix has Furthur Room to Move Up / Down &adjust with Nifty (in Up as well as Down Trend) Fear can inrease in either side but with Increase in Vix & Down Volume - NIfty can move Down

Indian Bonds (1/3) Indirect Correlation with Stock Market; Money Flows from Bonds to Stock for Short term Maturity (Mkt Goes up) & Vice Versa. Shorter Period = Lower Rate (Controlled by Centeral Bank & Indirect relation to Stock Market) + Longer Period = Higher Rate (Controlled by Market) Both 10Y & 3Y Bond are at All time Lows but creating Double Bottom & have Started uptrend & 13 Year Rate is near 3 Year Rate & 3Year Rate in increasing Higher Relative to 10Year Rate (Caution) .. Correct Relation is 10Y ROI > 3Y ROI but 13Y ROI < 10Y ROI but that may be due to Low Volumes. FII flows are moving from Stk Mkt to Short term Bond Mkt Indicates Caution

A - Positive/Direct Corelation Between Bond Mkt (Long Term) = Forex (Individual Currency) Mkt = Stock Mkt B - Positive/Direct Corelation Between Commodity Mkt = Inflation (Status of Economy) = Bank Rate Negative/Indirect Corelation between A & B

Commodities (Negative Correlation) Also Commodities Crude is moving Down,Gold has Recovered from Break Down Rangebound (Between 1380 to 1420) Support of 1320 has to Hold ( Otherwise Downwards target is towards 1250. ... ( Equity Markets Rally has Dangers Due to Reduced Economic Growth (& Reduced Commodity Demand) & Geo Political Tensions are also increasing.

Currency Markets (Positive Coorrelation) Major Currencies are Appriciating against Other Currencies. Japan Yen Aussie $ are Depriciating & Market collapse caused Panik across Globe after Fed's Liquidity Reversal Hints (Market Build Gains on Bad Reports & Declines on Good Reports as it fuels Concern on Reduction in Liquidity (QE Reversal)..... Hence Global Liquidity is Moving towards World Equity Markets .. Currency War has Reached Phase II between USD & Other Emerging Mkt Currencies http://finviz.com/forex_charts.ashx?t=ALL&tf=w1

World Markets (Positive Coorrelation) China is Recover is Slow & US Markets has given a Breakdown upto 1626 after Fresh Breakout from 1629 / 1655 & Europe CAG DAX & FTSE are Now Breaking Down from There Highs (Global Markets are showing Syncronisation in the Breakdowns Confirming Breakdown across Globe... Japan Nikke has Given up more than 75% of the Gains.Hence Global Liquidity is Drying ..All Equity Markets are Declining - (Risk http://in.advfn OFF Mode) .... .com/world

The Mighty 10 Index - Top Sector & Index weighted % Wise ( 1/10 ) Negative INDEX HDFC Breakdown from Life Highs FINANCE ICICIBANK Breakdown after testing of previous Highs ENERGY RELIANCE Did not Reach Previous highs Now consolidating near bottom of the range IT INFY Tested Resistance & moving Towards its 52 Week Lows FMCG ITC Rising from Support after Double Top at Life Time Highs AUTO TATAMOTORS Rising from Support after Double Top at previous Highs PHARMACEUTICALS SUNPHARMA Breaking Down from Life highs CAPITAL GOODS L&T Rising from support with Double Bottom METALS TATASTEEL At Life Lows CEMENT ULTRACEMCO Rising from Bottom towards Resistance ( within Six Month Range ) NB: These notes are just personal musings on the markets, trends etc, as a sort of reminder to me on what I thought of them at a particular point in time. They are not predictions and none should rely on them for any investment decisions. Readers Discretion Expected. Advocate to Consult Your Financial Advisor before any Investment as Investment in any market may be Lost in its Entirety. Strictly for Entertainment Purpose Only.