SIAM

Demand Forecasts for Indian Automobile Industry

The Forecasting Process

Statistical Method and Delphi Technique used for forecasting, considering all the relevant demand drivers for each segment Econometric Model prepared after considering an exhaustive list of relevant variables
Macro-economic variables: eg. GDP components, industrial production, inflation, interest rates, stock indices Sector variables: eg. Model launches, vehicle price, intersegment competition Enablers/barriers: eg. Finance availability, road connectivity

F14 Forecast
Segment Cars UVs Vans PV Total LCV Goods MHCV Goods Passenger Buses Total CV 2W 3W Goods 3W Passenger F14 Growth (Apr13 Est.)

3-5%
11-13% 4-6% 5-7% 10-12% 1-3%

6-8%
7-9% 6-8% 2-4% 3-5% 3-5% 6-8%

3W Total
Auto Total