Richard Suttmeier is the Chief Market Strategist at www.ValuEngine.com. ValuEngine is a fundamentally-based quant research firm in Melbourne, FL.

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Aug 30, 2013 The Nasdaq is above its five-week MMA at 3597 but below pivot at 3663.

The yield on the US Treasury 10-Year note held my weekly pivot at 2.836% on Monday and traded as low as 2.703% overnight going into Wednesday on the Syrian flight to quality. On Thursday this yield rose again to a retest of the weekly pivot at 2.836% before declining again. My monthly pivot is 2.601% with the 200-week SMA at 2.543%. The rise in yield is overdone on its weekly chart. On Thursday, the US capital market focus shifted from Syria to U.S. economic data as Q2 GDP was revised upward to 2.5% in the preliminary reading up from 1.7% in the advanced reading. Weekly jobless claims came in at a benign reading of 331,000 well below the recessionary 350,000 threshold. The strong rebound in the price of gold was to a high of $1434.0 the Troy ounce overnight into Wednesdays trade. The daily chart shows that gold is overbought with upside to the 200-day simple moving average at $1506.8. The weekly chart remains positive with the 200-week simple moving average at $1470.5. The weekly chart for crude oil is overbought with the five-week modified moving average at $105.58 per barrel. The overnight high was $112.24 into Wednesday, but then my semiannual pivot became a magnet at $109.84. The 200-week simple moving average is a major support at $90.33. 10-Year Note (2.749) Weekly and semiannual value levels are 2.836 and 3.227 with daily, monthly, annual, and semiannual risky levels at 2.719, 2.601, 1.981 and 1.719. Comex Gold ($1407.0) My monthly value level is $1229.7 with a weekly pivot at 1416.8, and daily, annual, quarterly and annual risky levels at $1425.1, $1599.9, $1603.0 and $1852.1. Nymex Crude Oil ($108.00) Daily, monthly and quarterly value levels are $106.66, $104.48 and $91.75 with my semiannual pivot at $109.84 and annual and weekly risky levels at $115.23 and $115.85. The Euro (1.3242) My semiannual value levels are 1.2756 and 1.2477 with annual and monthly pivots at 1.3257 and 1.3313 and daily, weekly and annual risky levels at 1.3349, 1.3436 and 1.4295. The Dow Industrial Average has a negative but oversold daily chart profile with the 200-day SMA at 14,424 and the 50-day SMA at 15,238. The S&P 500 also has a negative but oversold daily chart profile with the 200-day SMA at 1560.9 and the 50-day SMA at 1659.8. The Nasdaq has a neutral daily chart profile with the 50-day SMA at 3567 and the 200-day SMA at 3296. The Dow Transportation Average has a negative daily chart profile with the 200-day SMA at 5996 and the 50-day SMA at 6390. The Russell 2000 has a neutral daily chart profile with the 200-day SMA at 939.41 and the 50-day SMA at 1025.47.

The Dow Industrial Average will continue to have a negative weekly chart profile with a close this week below the five-week MMA at 15,156. The S&P 500 will have a negative weekly chart profile given a close this week below its five-week MMA at 1659.5. The Nasdaq will continue to have a positive but overbought weekly chart profile with a close this week above its five-week MMA at 3590. The Dow Transportation Average will have a negative chart profile given a close this week below the five-week MMA at 6407. The Russell 2000 has a positive but overbought weekly chart profile, but will shift to neutral with a weekly close below its five-week MMA at 1025.91. The Nasdaq stayed below my monthly pivot at 3663 on Wednesday. My quarterly and annual value levels at 14,288 / 12,696 Dow Industrials, 1525.6 / 1348.3 S&P 500, 3284 / 2806 Nasdaq, 5348 / 5469 Dow Transports, and 863.05 / 809.54 Russell 2000. My semiannual risky levels are 16,490 Dow Industrials, 1743.5 S&P 500, 3759 Nasdaq, 7104 Dow Transports and 1089.42 Russell 2000. Daily Dow: (14,841) Daily, quarterly and annual value levels are 14,790, 14,288 and 12,696 with the August 2 all time high at 15,658.43, and weekly, monthly and semiannual risky levels at 15,732, 16,188 and 16,490. S&P 500 (1638.2) Quarterly and annual value levels are 1525.6 and 1348.3 with a daily risky level at 1646.0, the August 2 all time high at 1709.67, and weekly, monthly and semiannual risky levels at 1744.8, 1742.5 and 1743.5. NASDAQ (3620) Quarterly and annual value levels are 3284 and 2806 with daily and monthly pivots at 3651 and 3663, the August 5 multi-year high at 3694.18, and semiannual and weekly risky levels at 3759 and 3830. NASDAQ 100 (NDX) (3093) Quarterly and annual value levels are 2983 and 2463 with a monthly pivot at 3080, a daily risky level at 3113, the August 13 multi-year high at 3149.24, and weekly and semiannual risky levels at 3257 and 3304. Dow Transports (6322) Annual and quarterly value levels are 5925, 5469 and 5348 with a daily risky level at 6433, the August 1 all time high at 6686.86, and weekly, monthly and semiannual risky levels at 6771, 7087 and 7104. Russell 2000 (1026.94) Quarterly and annual value levels are 1011.46, 863.05, 860.25 and 809.54 with a daily risky level at 1041.62, the August 5 all time high at 1063.52, and monthly and semiannual risky levels at 1092.24 and 1089.42. The SOX (461.82) Quarterly and annual value levels are 404.59 and 338.03 with a daily pivot at 461.19, and weekly, monthly and semiannual risky levels at 480.52, 513.89 and 533.56. Dow Utilities: (477.83) No nearby value levels with daily and semiannual pivots at 481.56 and 481.92 and weekly, quarterly, semiannual, monthly and annual risky levels at 501.80, 510.38, 523.33, 530.15 and 540.37. Fundamentally stocks are overvalued by 76.2%, which is above the 65% threshold that defines a ValuEngine valuation warning. 42.4% of all stocks are overvalued by 20% or more. 15 or 16 sectors are overvalued, 13 by double-digit percentages with nine more than 20% overvalued. To learn more about ValuEngine check out www.ValuEngine.com. Any comments or questions contact me at RSuttmeier@gmail.com.