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IS*-LM*
IS-LM-CM Small Open Economy Capital Mobility

MundellFleming Model
Professor Robert Mundell The 1999 Nobel Prize

Winner "for his analysis of monetary and fiscal policy under different exchange rate regimes and his analysis of optimum currency areas"

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Nghin cu mt m hnh
1. 2. 3. 4. 5.

Gi nh Mc ch m hnh H phng trnh (bin ni, ngoi sinh) Ta (s hnh thnh ng, di, dch chuyn) S tc ng

H phng trnh
IS-LM-CM
Y = C(Y-T) + I(r) + G + NX(e) M/P = L(Y, r) r = r* Ta (Y, r) Ta (Y, e)

IS*-LM*
Y = C(Y-T) + I(r*) + G + NX(e) M/P = L(Y, r*)

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Ta IS-LM-CM v IS*-LM*
r LM

r = r*

CM

IS Y Y

Ghi nh: giao im IS-LM l li sut trong nc r

Vn hnh chnh sch trong IS*-LM*

Fiscal Policy Fixed ER Hiu qu Monetary Policy V ch ER Policy 1. Devaluation (Ph gi) 2. Revaluation (Nng gi) Lm th no ng tin ca h ln gi/gim gi?

Floating ER

V ch

Hiu qu

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Vn di chuyn t do v t gi th ni

Vn di chuyn t do v t gi th ni

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Vn di chuyn t do v t gi c nh

Vn di chuyn t do v t gi c nh

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Ba iu khng th xy ra ng thi (The Impossible Trinity)

C ch t gi hi oi c nh Chnh sch tin t c lp Vn di chuyn hon ton t do

Free capital flows

Mt nc phi chn mt cnh ca tam gic v t b gc i din.

Independent monetary policy

Fixed exchange rate

Asia confronts the impossible trinity

Ila PatnaiK and Ajay Shah (2010)
11 quc gia: India, China, Hong Kong, Taiwan,

Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam, v Korea. Hai khi nim:
De facto (what they do) De jure (what they promise to do)

De facto: ang hng theo hi nhp nhanh CA

m khng c s linh hot trong c ch t gi dn n hin tng chnh sch tin t thun chu k khi dng vn thun chu k.

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Chnh sch v hiu ha v 3 iu khng th xy ra ng thi

Mi lin kt gia th trng ngoi hi v th

trng tin t trong nc FR (Foreign Reserves: d tr ngoi t) C ch chnh sch v hiu ha hay chnh sch b tr (Sterilization Policy) Dng vn vo/ra v chnh sch v hiu ha
Liu chnh sch v hiu ha c gip t c 3

mt cch bn vng?

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Hy nh chnh sai st
Cc tc ng ca mt chnh sch n nh ha kinh t ty thuc vo mc chuyn ng ca dng vn v vai tr ca h thng t gi hi oi. i vi trng hp vn di chuyn hon t do, h thng tin t m t gi c th ni theo th trng, cc cng c ti kho l mt chnh sch hu hiu nht

x l cc trng hp khng hong. Ngc li, trong mt

h thng m t gi b n nh mt cch c nh, cc chnh sch tin t ng vai tr then cht trong khi cc chnh sch can thip ti kho l v ch

Nn kinh t m nh, t gi th ni v vn di chuyn t do

Nh chnh sch 1: tng sn lng thc, chng ta nn

p dng chnh sch ti kho m rng. Nhng m chnh sch ny thng xy ra hin tng s ln t (crowding out effect). Nhng do vn di chuyn hon ton t do, chnh sch ti kho m rng khng ko theo tng li sut v chn p u t. Do vy m bt k s gia tng chi tiu chnh ph hay ct gim thu s c tc ng trc tip lm tng sn lng thc

Nh chnh sch 2: Anh cn phi xem li ghi ch bi

ging v kinh t v m thi k i hc. Chnh sch ti kho khng bao gi c hiu qu trong c ch t gi hi oi th ni v vn di chuyn t do - mt s kt hp hon ho to ra hin tng s ln t hon ton

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Nn kinh t m nh, t gi c nh v vn di chuyn t do

Nh chnh sch 1: tng sn lng thc, chng ta nn p dng

chnh sch tin t m rng. Nhng m chnh sch ny thng xy ra hin tng by tin (liquidity trap). Nhng do vn di chuyn hon ton t do, chnh sch tin t m rng khng ko theo gim li sut v thc y u t. Do vy m bt k s gia tng cung tin ca ngn hng nh nc s khng c tc ng trc tip lm tng sn lng thc
Nh chnh sch 2: Anh cn phi xem li ghi ch bi ging v kinh t

v m thi k i hc. Chnh sch tin t khng bao gi c hiu qu trong c ch t gi hi oi c nh v vn di chuyn t do. Tuy nhin, vn anh cp n v chnh sch tin t m rng khng ko theo gim li sut v thc y u t v khng c tc ng trc tip lm tng sn lng thc chnh xc l mt c ch hon ho ca hin tng by tin

So snh vi kinh t ng
Trong trng hp ca mt nn kinh t m, nh, vn di chuyn t do, di c ch t gi hi oi th ni, chnh sch tin t c tc ng mnh hn so vi chnh sch tin t trong nn kinh t ng, nhng chnh sch ti kho th yu hn; iu

ngc li l ng trong c ch t gi hi oi c
nh

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Bi tp thc hnh 1
Dng m hnh Mundell-Fleming, biu din iu g xy ra vi Y, e v NX trong: (1) C ch t gi hi oi c nh; v (2) C ch t gi hi oi th ni, trc thay i sau y:
Kinh t ct cnh v ang trn pht trin mnh

khin nim tin v tng lai ca ngi tiu dng kh quan hn v do vy h tiu dng nhiu hn.

Bi tp thc hnh 2
Dng m hnh Mundell-Fleming, biu din iu g xy ra vi Y, e v NX trong: (1) C ch t gi hi oi c nh; v (2) C ch t gi hi oi th ni, trc thay i sau y:
Hi nhp v thu quan c ct gim cng vi

thu nhp ngy cng ci thin, nhiu gia nh mun mua xe hi ngoi nhp hn l xe sn xut v lp rp trong nc.

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Bi tp thc hnh 3
Dng m hnh Mundell-Fleming, biu din iu g xy ra vi Y, e v NX trong: (1) C ch t gi hi oi c nh; v (2) C ch t gi hi oi th ni, trc thay i sau y:
Vic cc ngn hng y mnh pht trin h thng

my rt tin t ng v chnh sch tr lng qua ti khon ca chnh ph lm gim cu tin.

Bi tp thc hnh 4
Chnh sch ca cc nc ln c th nh hng

n cc bin s th gii trong c li sut th gii (r*). Di gc ca kinh t v m, iu g c th lm cho r* thay i? S dng m hnh IS*-LM*, so snh tc ng ca mt s st gim (hay tng) r* n Y, e v NX i vi mt nn kinh t nh-m v vn di chuyn t do trong c hai c ch t gi hi oi c nh v th ni?

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Bi tp thc hnh 5
Gii thch ti sao chnh ph khng th kim sot

c c cung tin v t gi khi c s di chuyn ca dng vn quc t. Bn s t vn iu g vi chnh ph khi c mt n lc kim gi t gi hi oi c nh v ng thi vi kim sot lm pht?

Bi tp thc hnh 6
Combo l mt nn kinh t nh v m ca, khng c hn ch ngoi thng v cc dng ti chnh. Ngi ta va khm ph ra rng loi go xut khu v cng l sn phm ch lc ca nc ny do c im th nhng v sinh thi vi cht lng c bit khi s dng c th hn ch mt cch hiu qu cc loi bnh ung th. T gi hi oi ca nc ny c xc nh gn vi c ch t gi hi oi c nh.

Hy xem xt tc ng ca khm ph ny i vi ti khon vng lai, tng sn lng trong ngn hn vi iu kin l khng c bt k mt chnh sch can thip no.

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