887654

Decision Support and Intelligent Systems

Introduction to Decision Support System

(Decision Making)

( )

(Structured Problem)

( )

:
= +
+
+

 ()

(Unstructured Problem)


:

 ()
(Semi-Structured Problem)



:



(AI)

(Decision Making Process)

Intelligence Phase
Decision
Making
Process

Design Phase
Choice Phase
Implementation Phase
Monitoring Phase

Problem
Solving
Process

 (Decision Making Process)

(Intelligence Phase)

(Design Phase)

- Model ()
- Decision Tree ( )
- Decision Table ()

(Choice Phase)

 (Decision Making Process)

(Implementation Phase)

Choice Phase

(Monitoring Phase)

Implementation Phase

 decision tree

A box

choice manager

A circle

Lines

Decision Tree Example 1

Joes garaged is considering hiring another mechanic. The mechanic
would cost them an additional $50,000 / year in salary and benefits.
If there are a lot of accidents in City this year, they anticipate
making an additional $75,000 in net revenue.
If there are not a lot of accidents, they could lose $20,000 off of
last years total net revenues.
Because of all the ice on the roads, Joe thinks that there will be a
70% chance of a lot of accidents and a 30% chance of fewer accidents.
Assume if he doesnt expand he will have the same revenue as last
year.
Draw a decision tree for Joe and tell him what he should do?.

A Decision Tree for Joe s Garage

70% chance of an increase
in accidents
Hire new
mechanic
Cost = $50,000

Profit = $70,000

30% chance of a
decrease in accidents
Profit = - $20,000

Dont hire new

mechanic
Cost = $0

Estimated value of Hire Mechanic =

Value = .7(70,000) + .3(- $20,000) - $50,000 = - $7,000
Therefore Joe should not hire the mechanic

Decision Tree Example 2

Mary is a manager of a gadget factory. Her factory has
been quite successful the past three years. She is wondering
whether or not it is a good idea to expand her factory this
year. The cost to expand her factory is $1.5M.
If she does nothing and the economy stays good and
people continue to buy lots of gadgets she expects $3M in
revenue; while only $1M if the economy is bad.
If she expands the factory, she expects to receive $6M if
economy is good and $2M if economy is bad.

She also assumes that there is a 40% chance of a good

economy and a 60% chance of a bad economy.
Draw a Decision Tree showing these choices.

A Decision Tree for Mary

40 % Chance of a Good Economy
Profit = $6M
Expand Factory
Cost = $1.5 M

60% Chance Bad Economy

Profit = $2M
Good Economy (40%)
Dont Expand Factory
Cost = $0

Profit = $3M

Bad Economy (60%)

Profit = $1M

VExpand = (.4(6) + .6(2)) 1.5 = $2.1M

VNo Expand = .4(3) + .6(1) = $1.8M
$2.1 > 1.8, therefore you should expand the factory

Decision Table
(If Conditions Then Actions)
Conditions

Condition Alternatives

Actions

Action Entries

Printer Troubleshooter
Conditions

Printer does not print

A red light is flashing

Printer is unrecognized

Check the power cable

Actions

Check the printer-computer cable

Ensure printer software is installed

Check/replace ink

Check for paper jam

X
X

If Printer does not print AND A red light is flashing AND Printer is recognized

Then Check/replace ink AND Check for paper jam

Example
Rule 1:

Rule 2:

Rule 3:

Rule 4:

Rule 5:

Rule 6:

IF
THEN

it is raining AND it is not warm today

take an umbrella AND take an overcoat.

IF
THEN

it is raining AND it is warm today

take a raincoat

IF
THEN

it is not raining AND the weather forecast is fine AND it is warm today
do not take an umbrella, a raincoat, or an overcoat

IF
THEN

it is not raining AND the weather forecast is fine AND it is not warm today
take an overcoat

IF
THEN

it is not raining AND the weather forecast is not fine AND it is warm today
take an umbrella

IF
THEN

if is not raining AND the weather forecast is not fine AND it is not warm today
take an umbrella AND take an overcoat

Example
Weather Forecast

Conditions

It is raining

the weather forecast is fine

It is warm today

Take an umbrella

Actions

Take A raincoat
Take An overcoat

X
X

X
X

1. Personal
2. Group

1. Structured
2. Unstructured
3. Semi-Structured

1. Strategic
2. Management Control
3. Operational

(Personal Decision)

(Group Decision)
(Brain storming)

(Structured Decision)

(Unstructured Decision)

(Semi-Structure Decision)

Top

Strategic Decision

Middle
Management

Tactical Decision
Operational Decision

Lower
Management

(Strategic Decision)

(Management Control Decision)

Tactical Decision
3

(Operational Decision)

3

(Certainty Condition )

Structured

(Risk Condition )

(
)

(Uncertainty Condition )

( )

Dictionary
DSS

Decision Support System

EIS

Executive Information System

MIS

Management Information System

TPS

Transaction Processing System

ES

OAS

Expert System
Office Automation System


DSS

EIS
Top
Management
Middle
Management MIS

TPS

ES

Lower
Management

Generic Management

OAS


DSS

1:
1950 TPS

2:
1960-1970

(OAS)

3:
1970-1980 (DSS)
DSS 2
(EIS) (Group
Support System: GSS)

DSS

()

4:

1980
(Expert System: ES)
1990
(Data Warehouse)
(Neural Network)
(Natural Language Processing:
NLP)

5:

(Intelligence Agent)

 DSS

(Easy to Use)
(Flexibility)

 DSS


Holsapple Whinston

(File Drawer System)

: ATM

(Data Analysis System)

: Spreadsheet

 ()

(Analysis Information System)

:

 ()

(Accounting Model)


:

(Representational Model)
(Behavior)

 ()

(Optimization Systems)

(Suggestion Systems)



(Descriptive Models) Normative


Holsapple

Whinston

(Text-Oriented DSS)

IT

(Database-Oriented DSS)

(Spreadsheet-Oriented
Excel

DSS)


Holsapple

Whinston

(Solver-Oriented DSS)
Excel, LINGO, LINDO
Linear Programming

(Rule-Oriented DSS)

(Compound DSS)

(Personal Support)

(Group Support)

(Organizational Support)

(Custom-Made System)
:

(Ready-Made System)

 DSS

/
(ES)