: http://learning-be.blogspot.com/2012/08/excel-monte-carlo-simulation-1.

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1.

(Y) = -

(S) * (P)



(L) *

(R)

L*R*P

( H) +
(C) *L

H + L*C

Y = L*R*P - (H+L*C)

L, R, P, C, H

1. (P)

1,400 - 1,600
(R) 5% - 20%
2.



3. (L) 1,300 - 1,700
4. (C) 10 - 25

Monte Carlo
5000

2. excel : RAND()


excel

0 1


F9 Worksheet excel
1

 1
3. excel (

1 10)
R : A10 = $B$2 + RAND()*($C$2 - $B$2)
L : B10 = $B$3 + RAND()*($C$3 - $B$3)
P : C10 = $B$4 + RAND()*($C$4 - $B$4)
C : D10 = $B$5 + RAND()*($C$5 - $B$5)
4. excel 1
F10 = $A10*$B10*$C10 - ($B$6 + $B10*$D10)
6. 2

2 1
7. excel 10 4,999 ( 5009 )
5,000

8.




excel: RAND ( F9)

9. F10:F5009




excel

excel: FREQUENCY
3

 3 excel
10.

4

4
11. F9