Phan Phoi Khi Binh Phuong Va Phep Kiem X Binh Phuong

TS Nguyen Ngoc Rang; Email: rangbvag@yahoo.com; Website: bvag.com.
vn; Trang:1

PHN PHI V PHP KIM KHI BNH PHNG

12.1 Phn phi khi bnh phng (_
2
):
Nu X
i
l bin ngu nhin c phn phi chun tc X
i
~ N (0,1) v gi:
=
=
v
1 i
2
i
X Q

th Q tun theo lut phn phi khi bnh phng (_
2
) vi bc t do v v c vit l:
~
2

Biu 12.1 Phn phi _
2
vi bc t do v=4 v v=10.
Phn phi (_
2
) c cc c im:
Trung bnh ca phn phi chnh l bc t do v ( =v).
Phng sai bng 2 ln bc t do:
2
= 2v
y c tr cc i (mode) khi x
2
= v-2 (vi v 2).
Khi bc t do v tng, ng cong khi bnh phng tin dn thnh ng
cong chun.
Nh vy phn phi _
2
ch c 1 thng s l bc t do v

TS Nguyen Ngoc Rang; Email: rangbvag@yahoo.com; Website: bvag.com.vn; Trang:2

V d: bc t do v=4, tr trung bnh l 4, phng sai l 8, tr cc i l 2
bc t do v=10, tr trung bnh l 10, phng sai l 20, tr cc i l 8
12.2 S dng php kim _
2
Thng c dng kim nh cc bin nh tnh.
12.2.1 Kim nh s xc hp (Goodness of fit) ca 1 tn s quan st trn mu, so
snh vi tn s l thuyt.
Vi d: Tn s l thuyt (hay tn s mong i) sinh trai hoc gi l 50%. Quan st
mt mu: S tr em sinh ti khoa Sn trong 1 tun l gm 110 tr trai v 90 tr gi
(tn s quan st). Nh vy c th kt lun hin nay c khuynh hng sinh trai nhiu
hn gi?
Gi thuyt H
0
: tn s quan st=tn s l thuyt
Gi thuyt Ha: C khc bit

_
2
=
(TS quan stTS mong i)
2
TS mong i

Tnh _
2
: _
2
=
( ) ( )
2
100
100 90 100 110
2 2
=
+

Xem bng phn phi _
2
( phn ph lc) vi bc t do DF=1, gi tr ti hn o=0,05 l
3,84
2< 3,84 chp nhn Ho: Sinh trai nhiu hn gi l do tnh c v s khc bit cha
c ngha thng k. (xem biu 12.2)

Biu 12.2 Vi bc t do v=1, _
2
= 3,84

12.2.2 Kim nh 2 t l trn 2 mu c lp (Bng 2x2)
p dng khi gi tr mong i trung bnh trong cc >5
V d: Mt nghin cu bnh-chng tm s lin h gia nhim Human papilloma
virus (HPV) v ung th c t cung (CTC). Kt qu trnh by trong bng 2x2 nh sau:

Ung th CTC+ Ung th CTC(-)
HPV (+) 20 (10)* 10 (20 )* 30
HPV (-) 10 (20)* 50 (40)* 60
30 60 N=90**
*Cc s trong ngoc l s mong i, ch p dng php kim khi tr s mong i > 5.
** N l tng s ca

Cch tnh khi bnh phng:
_
2
= E
(tr s quan st tr s mong i)
2
[1]
s mong i

Tr s mong i =

[2]

Bc t do DF = (hng-1) x (ct-1)
Bng trn c 2 hng v 2 ct vy:
DF =(2-1) x (2-1)=1
Th vo cng thc [1] ta c

_
2 ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
22,5
40
40 50
20
20 10
20
20 10
10
10 20
2 2 2 2
=
=
Vi DF=1; gi tr ti hn vi o=0,05 (2 ui) l 3,84
_
2
= 22,5 >3,84 bc b Ho: nhim HPV l yu t nguy c gy ung th c t cung


12.3 p dng php kim _
2
trong SPSS
12.3.1 Trng hp c bng d liu:
V d: Mt nghin cu tm s lin quan gia b sa m v nhim Helicobacter pyroli
30 tr em. Ta c bng d liu sau y:

Ghi ch: ct 1 (id): i tng; ct 2 (suame) vi 1: b sa m v 0:khng b m ;
ct 3 (nhiemHP): 1 c nhim H. pyroli v 0: khng nhim H. pyroli
Vo menu: Analyze> Descriptive Statistics>Crosstabs.
M hp thoi Crosstabs, nhp chuyn suame t bn tri vo Row(s) v
NhiemHP vo column(s).

Nhn hp thoi StatisticsNhp du nhy vo Chi-square v Risk v nhn
Continue

Nhn hp thoi Cells Nhp du nhy vo Observed v Column ( xem t l
%), nhp Continue


Cui cng nhn OK cho kt qu nh sau:

Kt qu: Khng b sa m, t l nhim HP l 10/15 (83,3%)
C b sa m, t l nhim HP l 2/15 (16,7%)
Pearson Chi-Square=8,889, bc t do DF=1 v mc ngha p=0,003
T s Odds=0,077 (Khong tin cy 95%: 0,012-0,480)
Kt lun: B sa m lm gim 92,3% nguy c (odds) nhim H. pyroli

12.3.2 Trng hp khng c bng d liu:
V d ch c bng d liu 2x2 nh sau:
Ung th CTC+ Ung th CTC(-)
HPV (+) 20 10
HPV (-) 10 50

Trong trng hp ny, nhp s liu vo SPSS nh sau:

C 3 ct: benh (0,1); phoinhiem (0,1), soluong (10,20,50,10)
benh= 1 (ung th c TC +); benh=0 (ung th c TC -)
phoinhiem=1 ( HPV +); phoinhiem=0 (HPV-)

Vo menu Data, chn Weight Cases (hng cui cng) m mn hnh Weight Cases
nh sau:
Chon soluong, nhp mi tn, chuyn vo Frequency Variable, nhp OK


Chuyn qua menu: Analyze, chn Descriptive Statistics, chn Crosstabs

Vo hp thoi Cross tabs, nhp chuyn phoinhiem t bn tri qua Row(s) v
benh qua Column(s):

Nhn Statistics, nh du nhy vo Chi-square v Risk


Nhp Continue, nhp OK, kt qu cui cng nh sau:

Pearson Chi-Square = 22.500; ngha TK (2-ui)=0.000
Odds Ratio=10,0 (KTC 95%:3,6-27,6)
Kt lun: Nguy c mc bnh ung th c t cung trong nhm nhim HPV cao hn
nhm khng nhim HPV 10 ln (KTC 95%: 3.612- 27.688; p=0.000).


Ph lc. Bng i chiu xem gi tr ti hn vi 6 bc t do (DF) ca phn phi
_2.

DF p=0.05 p=0.01
1 3.84 6.64
2 5.99 9.21
3 7.82 11.34
4 9.49 13.28
5 11.07 15.09
6 12.59 16.81

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TS Nguyen Ngoc Rang; Email: rangbvag@yahoo.com; Website: bvag.com.

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