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Bao+Cao+Phan+Tich+BHS 13112012 PHS
Bao+Cao+Phan+Tich+BHS 13112012 PHS
Ngnh: ng Bo co cp nht
MUA
Gi mc tiu
Gi hin ti
VND 16,400
VND 14,500
Kh nng hon thnh k hoch nm ti chnh 2012: BHS t tin v kh nng hon
thnh k hoch doanh thu nm 2012, v k vng mc vt khong 10% i vi ch tiu
ny. Tuy nhin, cng ty nhn nhn vic t mc tiu li nhun ch trong qu cui nm l
tng i kh khn, tr khi gi bn vn gi c mc cao nh Q3/2012.
13.11.2012
S lc cng ty
M CP
BHS
Vn iu l (t ng)
300
30
Vn ha (t ng)
459
24,600 11,200
37,510
Beta
1.04
S hu nc ngoi
6.35%
20/12/2006
HOSE- Vietnam
C ng ln
SBT
22.7%
11.3%
6.2%
5.3%
SBT, 22.7%
C ng
khc,
54.6%
Vinasuga
r II,
11.3%
Thai
Thi
Thanh
Tuyen,
GEC, 5.3%
6.2%
Bin ng gi
www.phs.vn
Tuyt i
Phn trm (%)
3 thng
6 thng
12 thng
-1.4
-2.6
-0.5
-8.4%
-14.5%
-3.2%
1H11
3Q11
1H12
3Q12
KH
2012
2012E
2013E
1,108
518
1,383
654
2,880
3,087
3,036
11%
13%
7%
11%
8%
8%
Bin LN HKD
4%
8%
4%
5%
5%
4%
LN trc thu
47
42
51
33
148
131
LN sau thu
43
38
44
28
129
98
-16%
5%
4%
-25%
-13%
-24%
Tng trng so
vi cng k
Tng trng so
vi qu trc
EPS (TTM)
Gi tr s sch
P/E
9.7x
162
2.4x
7,432
7,526
4,971
4,660
4,087
3,124
26,682
28,715
18,099
19,043
20,489
21,613
4.1
4.1
3.7
3.7
3.7
4.9
P/B
1.1
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.7
0.7
(*) EPS v gi tr s sch d phng 2012 v 2013 da trn s lng c phiu cao hn 5% so
vi lng c phiu ang lu hnh hin ti, do BHS d kin pht hnh c phiu cho cn b
cng nhn vin (ESOP) trong Q4/2012
Ngun: BHS, PHS
Bo co ny ch c tnh tham kho v nh u t phi t chu trch nhim vi nhng quyt nh u t ca mnh.
Bin li nhun
gp tr li xp
x mc bnh
qun qu kh
Li nhun gp bin gim 1.9 im phn trm (t 13.1% trong Q3/2011 xung 11.2% trong Q3/2012), da trn:
Mc tng trng 26% ca doanh thu ng so vi cng k, ch yu do sn lng tiu th tng 28% (t 27,500
tn ln 35,094 tn ng), b p mc gim 2% ca gi bn bnh qun.
Doanh thu khc t gp 2.4 ln (t 10 t ng ln 24 t ng).
T sut li nhun gp hot ng kinh doanh ng (chim t trng ln lt 5% v 13% tng doanh thu trong
Q3/2011 v Q3/2012) gim ng k t 7.7% xung 0.7% do gi bn bnh qun thp hn, trong khi hot ng
sn xut ng (chim t trng ln lt 92% v 83% tng doanh thu trong Q3/2011 v Q3/2012) vn gi
c bin li nhun gp mc 13%.
Hot ng khc (chim t trng ln lt 2% v 4% tng doanh thu trong Q3/2011 v Q3/2012) ch t bin
li nhun gp mc 4% (so vi 10% trong Q3/2011).
Tuy nhin, so vi Q2/2012, li nhun gp bin c ci thin ng k sau khi gim su v mc 6.2% trong qu
trc. S ci thin ny n t tc tng trng 5% ca gi ng sn xut ni a ca cng ty, mc d gi ng
trn th trng ghi nhn mc gim 6% trong cng khong thi gian. Kh nng gia tng gi bn ca BHS trong
Q3/2012 l kt qu t:
Cc khch hng cng nghip nh VNM, VCF, v.v ng gp nhu cu tiu th cao v gi bn n nh cho
BHS trong ma Trung Thu va qua. Gi ng bn s ca cng ty c gi mc 18,200 ng/kg.
Li th thng hiu vi th phn ln trn th trng bn l gip BHS gi gi ng ti mc 20,000 ng/kg.
BHS chu thu sut thu thu nhp doanh nghip (TNDN) mc 15% i vi hot ng kinh doanh chnh trong nm
nay, gp i so vi mc 7.5% trong nm 2011.
Bin li nhun gp ca BHS
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
14.4%
13.1%
10.4%
13.3%
13.1%
11.7%
11.2%
8.9%
8.1%
7.8%
6.2%
Chng ti k vng sn lng tiu th s tip tc tng trng mc 17% trong Q4/2012 so vi cng k nm ngoi.
Bn cnh , gi bn trong nc vn mc n nh nh qu trc da trn nhu cu cao v ng nguyn liu cho
dp Tt Nguyn n. Tuy nhin, mng kinh doanh v tm nhp ti xut, vi li nhun gp bin thp hn nhiu so vi
t sut li nhun gp ca hot ng sn xut ng, chim mt t trng khng nh trong tng sn lng tiu th, da
trn:
Theo , mc d doanh thu Q4/2012 chng ti d phng mc 1,050 t (+12% so vi cng k v +60% so vi qu
trc), li nhun t hot ng kinh doanh chnh nhiu kh nng tng trng mc chm hn vi bin li nhun hot
ng kinh doanh chnh mc thp hn. Doanh thu Q4 thng thng chim t trng 32% - 37% tng doanh thu hng
nm.
Bo co ny ch c tnh tham kho v nh u t phi t chu trch nhim vi nhng quyt nh u t ca mnh.
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
37%
34%
32%
23%
25%
20%
24%
19%
20%
22%
22%
21%
Hot ng ti
chnh c kh
nng ghi nhn
li nhun
dng
Chng ti d phng li nhun ti chnh kh quan, da trn li u t trng ma cao trong qu ny. BHS ti tr khong
45% - 55% tng chi ph trng ma cho nng dn. Theo , cng ty thng ghi nhn li nhun t hot ng ny ch
yu vo qu 4 v qu 1 hng nm, khi ngi dn bt u thu hoch ma.
20
15
10
5
-
Gim thu
TNDN trong
2012
BHS c hng u i gim 30% thu TNDN 2012, theo Ngh Quyt 29/2012/QH13 (i vi cc doanh nghip sn
xut nng nghip s dng nhiu lao ng) ban hnh ngy 21/06/2012.
Ly k c nm 2012, doanh thu BHS d phng t 3,087 t ng (+20% so vi cng k) v LNTT c t 148
t ng (-7.5% so vi cng k), tng ng vi LNST mc 129 t ng (-13% so vi cng k). So vi k
hoch 2012 ca cng ty, d phng ca chng ti cao hn 7.2% ch tiu doanh thu nhng thp hn 8.4% k
hoch LNTT.
Tng din tch trng ma (bao gm c din tch u t v din tch ca nhng ngi nng dn thng giao dch vi
BHS) d kin t 11,000ha (+10% so vi cng k) trong v 2012/2013. Phn din tch tng thm ch yu c m
rng ti bin gii Campuchia. Chng ti k vng nng sut v ny c th t 61 65 tn/ha vi tnh hnh thi tit
tng i thun li n thi im hin ti. Theo , kt hp vi lng ma bao tiu hng nm, tng sn lng ma p
v ny d kin t 749,600 tn (+19% so vi cng k), tng ng xp x 64,400 tn ng thnh phm.
Bn cnh vic m rng vng nguyn liu, cng ty cng u t vo hai d n sau:
Nng cp dy chuyn sn xut ti hai nh my Ty Ninh v Tr An sn xut trc tip 100% ng tinh
luyn t thng 12/2012.
Gia tng cng sut nh my Tr An ln 2,500 tn ma/ngy (+25% so vi cng k), nng tng cng sut p
Bo co ny ch c tnh tham kho v nh u t phi t chu trch nhim vi nhng quyt nh u t ca mnh.
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
Duy tr c
bin li nhun
gp do chi ph
sn xut gim
Mc d d phng sn lng ng sn xut t ma tng 19%, chng ti khng k vng tc tng trng tng ng
i vi sn lng tiu th. Nguyn nhn do BHS ang nh hng thu hp mng tm nhp ti xut. Theo , doanh
thu ng c t 2,858 t ng (-2% so vi cng k, da trn gi bn d kin thp hn), em li tng doanh thu
mc 3,036 t ng (-2% so vi cng k).
Tuy nhin, mc d gi ng trong xu hng gim, li nhun gp bin vn c kh nng duy tr mc 8.4%, da trn
chi ph sn xut thp hn sau khi tin hnh nng cp hai nh my Ty Ninh v Tr An.
D kin BHS s gia tng n vay di hn ti tr hai d n ni trn. Tng vn u t cho cc d n c t 130 t
ng, trong khong 70% c ti tr t vn vay.
80
60
40
20
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Ht thi hn u
i thu TNDN
Nm ti chnh 2012 l nm cui cng BHS c hng u i gim thu TNDN. T nm 2013, cng ty s chu thu
sut thu TNDN y mc 25%.
Tng kt, LNTT d phng 2013 mc 131 t ng, tng ng vi LNST c t 98 t ng. Theo , cc
ch tiu trn thp hn ln lt 11% v 24% d phng trong nm 2012 ca chng ti.
Bo co ny ch c tnh tham kho v nh u t phi t chu trch nhim vi nhng quyt nh u t ca mnh.
Din bin gi c phiu BHS trong xu hng gim t thng 5/2012 vi thanh khon tng i thp trong nhng thng
gn y. Chng ti s dng mc P/E 4.5x v P/B 1.0x chit khu 10% so vi mc k vng ca ngnh nh gi
c phiu ny. Mc chit khu ny da trn tng quan so snh vi cc cng ty khc trong ngnh khng nhng v
nhng li th ca BHS nh quy m hot ng, v th v thng hiu, cng nh t sut c tc, m cn xt n cc
bt li nh (i) thanh khon c phiu thp, v (ii) nhng thong tin gn y lin quan n gia nh ng ng Vn Thnh
c kh nng tc ng n tnh hnh qun tr ca cng ty.
Mc d kt qu kinh doanh d phng tng i tt trong nm 2012, chng ti khng s dng cc con s trong
vic nh gi. Theo quan im ca chng ti, gi hin ti phn nh trin vng ca BHS trong nm nay. Theo ,
chng ti s dng EPS (3,124 ng) v gi tr s sch (21,613 ng) d phng cho nm 2013 nh gi BHS (cc
ch tiu ny c tnh da trn s lng c phiu cao hn 5% so vi mc hin ti do cng ty d kin pht hnh c
phiu cho cn b cng nhn vin (ESOP) vo Q4/2012). Gi mc tiu c thit lp ti mc 16,400 ng (trong ,
phng php P/E chim 70% t trng v P/B chim 30% t trng). Gi mc tiu cao hn 12% so vi hin gi (14,500
ng). V vy, chng ti khuyn ngh MUA vi c phiu BHS.
BHS
1,772
571
2,976
8%
5%
9%
25%
2,000
4,660
19,043
14,500
14%
3.1
SBT
2,389
1,719
2,088
21%
19%
18%
23%
2,000
3,139
13,440
15,900
13%
5.1
LSS (*)
2,785
1,276
2,187
21%
13%
12%
23%
2,500
5,812
25,513
14,400
17%
2.5
NHS (**)
929
341
749
15%
11%
11%
26%
3,000
2,653
11,225
12,600
24%
4.7
SEC
633
266
639
20%
10%
10%
24%
2,200
3,590
15,307
19,800
11%
5.5
KTS
142
119
260
17%
10%
18%
22%
n/a
6,638
30,523
36,200
0.8
1.2
0.6
1.1
1.3
1.2
5.5
(*) D liu ca LSS da trn Bo co ti chnh sot xt 6 thng 2012, do cng ty cha cng b kt qu kinh doanh Q3/2012.
(**) D liu ca NHS da trn Bo co ti chnh Q3/2012 ca cng ty m, tuy nhin kt qu kinh doanh cng ty m thng khng khc
bit nhiu so vi kt qu hp nht i vi NHS.
Ngun: PHS thu thp v tnh ton da trn Bo ci ti chnh Q3/2012 ca cc cng ty
Bo co ny ch c tnh tham kho v nh u t phi t chu trch nhim vi nhng quyt nh u t ca mnh.
Ch s ti chnh (t ng)
Kt qu kinh doanh
2010
2011
2012E
2013E
Ch s ti chnh
2,005
2,565
3,087
3,036
Gi vn hng bn
1,756
2,295
2,830
2,780
249
270
257
Chi ph hot ng
55
75
18
35
Chi ph ti chnh
46
Li nhun ti chnh
2010
2011
2012E
2013E
69%
28%
20%
-2%
256
54%
8%
-5%
-1%
117
113
21%
1%
-13%
-24%
44
45
T l tng tng ti sn
15%
26%
13%
4%
80
36
57
T l tng vn ch s hu
17%
13%
14%
5%
43
72
38
57
Ch tiu hiu qu
166
149
148
131
Bin li nhun gp
12%
11%
8%
8%
166
160
148
131
8%
6%
5%
4%
146
147
129
98
7%
6%
4%
3%
Cn i k ton
2010
2011
2012E
2013E
ROA
15%
13%
9%
7%
Tng ti sn
1,015
1,282
1,451
1,506
ROE
31%
28%
21%
15%
618
770
809
878
59
179
77
82
7%
6%
4%
3%
255
252
269
294
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.1
Tn kho
299
333
389
381
n by (3)
2.0
2.3
2.2
2.2
Ti sn di hn
397
512
643
628
ROE = (1)x(2)x(3)
31%
28%
21%
15%
Phi thu di hn
66
42
59
64
Ti sn c nh
277
407
539
520
45
36
32
35
1,015
1,282
1,451
1,506
S ngy tn kho
52
50
50
50
N phi tr
514
717
806
825
S ngy phi tr
26
34
34
34
Vay ngn hn
225
362
311
313
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.1
Khon phi tr
174
250
262
257
Vng quay ti sn di hn
5.4
5.6
5.3
4.8
Vay di hn
115
104
232
254
Vng quay ti sn c nh
7.4
7.5
6.5
5.7
Vn ch s hu
501
565
645
681
H s thanh ton
Vn iu l
185
300
315
315
1.5
1.3
1.4
1.5
Thng d vn
154
40
40
40
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.9
43
65
85
100
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.1
103
125
150
153
C cu vn
2010
2011
2012E
2013E
103%
127%
125%
121%
147
165
(7)
58
51%
56%
56%
55%
(40)
(106)
(124)
(14)
Tng ti sn/vn ch s hu
203%
227%
225%
221%
(134)
61
29
(39)
(27)
120
(102)
PE
4.1
3.5
3.7
4.9
Li nhun gp
Ti sn ngn hn
Tin v tng ng tin
Tng ngun vn
Qu u t pht trin
Li nhun gi li
Dng tin
Tin thun t hot ng
kinh doanh
Tin thun t hot ng
u t
Tin thun t hot ng
ti chnh
Dng tin thun trong k
Ch tiu qun l
Tng n/vn ch s hu
Tng n/tng ti sn
Tin u k
86
59
179
77
PBV
1.2
0.9
0.7
0.7
Tin cui k
59
179
77
82
PS
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
EPS
7,871
4,908
4,087
3,124
Tin/c phiu
3,171
5,960
2,438
2,598
Gi tr s sch
27,023
18,821
20,489
21,613
Bo co ny ch c tnh tham kho v nh u t phi t chu trch nhim vi nhng quyt nh u t ca mnh.
Bo co ny ch c tnh tham kho v nh u t phi t chu trch nhim vi nhng quyt nh u t ca mnh.