Bai Giang Thong Ke Va Tin Hoc Cho Cao Hoc Lam Nghiep 2009

B GIO DC V O TO
TRNG I HC TY NGUYN
PGS.TS. BO HUY
THNG K TIN HC
TRONG LM NGHIP
p dng phn mm Statgraphics Centurion v MS. Excel
(Dng cho Cao hc Lm nghip)
Thng 5 nm 2009
Mc lc
1 TNG QUT V CHC NNG X L THNG K CA EXCEL V
STATGRAPHICS ......................................................................................................... 7
1.1
Tng qut v phn x l thng k trong Excel ............................................... 7
1.2
Tng qut v phn mm x l thng k Statgraphics Centuiron ................... 8
2 THNG K M T ............................................................................................. 10
3 SO SNH 1 2 MU QUAN ST BNG TIU CHUN T ................................ 13
3.1
So snh mt mu vi mt gi tr cho trc Kim tra T mt mu............... 13
3.2
So snh s sai khc gia trung bnh 2 mu Kim tra T 2 mu ................. 14
4 NGHIN CU MI QUAN H SINH THI LOI TRONG RNG MA NHIT
I DA VO TIU CHUN 2 (Bo Huy, 1997).................................................... 17
5 PHN TCH PHNG SAI ................................................................................ 23
5.1. Phn tch phng sai 1 nhn t vi cc th nghim ngu nhin hon ton . 23
5.2. Phn tch phng sai 2 nhn t ................................................................... 27
5.2.1.
Phn tch phng sai 2 nhn t vi 1 ln lp li: (B tr th nghim theo khi
ngu nhin y (Randomized Complete Blocks) (RCB): ............................................. 27
5.2.2.
Phn tch phng sai 2 nhn t m ln lp ........................................................... 32
6. PHN TCH TNG QUAN - HI QUY ............................................................ 36
6.1. Hi quy tuyn tnh 1 lp ............................................................................... 36
6.2. Dng phi tuyn a v tuyn tnh 1 lp ....................................................... 38
6.2.1.
Lp m hnh hm m trong Excel: ..................................................................... 38
6.2.2.
Lp m hnh hm m v Schumacher trong Statgraphics: ................................. 40
6.3. Hi quy tuyn tnh nhiu lp ........................................................................ 46
6.4. Hi quy phi tuyn tnh nhiu lp, t hp bin .............................................. 49
6.4.1.
Lp m hnh phi tuyn nhiu lp chuyn v tuyn tnh nhiu lp trong Excel.. 49
6.4.2.
Lp m hnh phi tuyn nhiu lp chuyn v tuyn tnh trong Statgraphics ....... 51
7. C LNG CC DNG HI QUY MT BIN TRN TH ...................... 55
8. SP XP V V BIU PHN B TN S XUT HIN THEO CP, C,
HNG ......................................................................................................................... 59
9. KIM TRA THUN NHT K MU QUAN ST T QUNG - NG DNG:
KIM TRA S THUN NHT CA CC DY PHN B N/D, N/H CC TIU
CHUN ...................................................................................................................... 61
10.
M HNH HO QUY LUT PHN B ........................................................... 62
10.1.
M hnh ho phn b gim theo hm Mayer ............................................ 63
10.2.
M phng phn b thc nghim theo phn b khong cch-hnh hc: .... 67
10.3.
M phng phn b thc nghim theo phn b Weibull: ........................... 69
11.
PHNG PHP NGHIN CU CU TRC MT BNG RNG (Bo Huy,
1993) ........................................................................................................................ 71
12.
PHN TCH, PHT HIN CC NGUYN NHN, NHN T NH TNH, NH
LNG NH HNG N BIN PH THUC (HU QU, VN ) (Bo Huy,
2006) ........................................................................................................................ 73
LI NI U
Ti liu ny c bin son phc v cho vic ging dy mn hc Thng k v Tin hc trong
lm nghip cho lp Cao hc Lm nghip trng i hc Ty Nguyn. Mn hc ny gip
cho ngi hc phn tch, x l s liu thng k trn my vi tnh trong qu trnh hc tp, lm
ti nghin cu cng nh ng dng vo thc tin.
C rt nhiu phn mm ng dng x l thng k nh SPSS, Statgraphics Plus, Excel....
Microsoft Excel c mi ngi bit n khi ni n cng c bng tnh, tnh tan..., nhng
nhng chc nng chuyn su v ng dng thng k trong sinh hc, nng lm nghip, qun l
ti nguyn thin nhin, mi trng li t c cp n. Mc ch ca mn hc ny l khai
thc chc nng x l thng k ht sc phong ph v mnh ca phn mm Excel ng dng
trong phn tch cc kt qu th nghim, nh gi cc kt qu iu tra kho st trong lm nghip,
nghin cu v qun l ti nguyn thin nhin. Trong bao gm cc x l thng k ph bin
nh: Phn tch cc c trng mu, so snh cc mu th nghim, phn tch phng sai, tng
quan hi quy, d bo.. do phn mm Excel c chn la gii thiu.
Cc phn mm thng k chuyn dng v ph bin trn th gii l Statgrahics, SPSS, . y l
cc phn mm thng k c ng dng rng trong hu ht cc lnh vc nghin cu, phn tch
d liu ca nhiu ngnh khc nhau v x hi, t nhin. ng dng mnh ca cc phn mm ny
l phn tch cc m hnh hi quy a bin dng tuyn tnh hay phi tuyn tnh vi cc cch phn
tch a dng nh hi quy lc, hi quy tng bc, t hp bin, m ha t ng cc bin nh
tnh, .. Do phn mm Statgraphics cng c gii thiu ngi hc c th tip cn vi
cng c phn tch thng k ny.
Ti liu ny s khng i su vo l thuyt xc sut thng k, m thin v hng ng dng n
gin, d hiu, km theo cc v d ngi c c th thc hnh cc chc nng x l, phn tch
d liu bng Excel, Statgraphics Plus mt cch nhanh chng, thun tin trong hot ng qun
l v nghin cu lm nghip, qun l ti nguyn thin nhin, mi trng.
1 TNG QUT V CHC NNG X L THNG K CA

EXCEL V STATGRAPHICS
1.1 Tng qut v phn x l thng k trong Excel
Excel thit k sn mt s chng trnh x l s liu v phn tch thng k c bn ng dng
trong nhiu lnh vc:
- Chc nng x l s liu, to bng tng hp d liu: Sp xp, tnh ton nhanh cc bng
tng hp t s liu th,...
- Chc nng ca cc hm: Cung cp hng lot cc hm v k thut, thng k, kinh t ti
chnh, hm tra cc ch tiu thng k nh t, F, 2
- Chc nng Data Analysis: Dng phn tch thng k nh phn tch cc c trng mu,
tiu chuNn t so snh s sai khc, phn tch phng sai, c lng cc tng quan hi
quy
- Phn tch m hnh tong quan hoc hi quy d bo cc thay i theo thi gian ngay
trn th.
Lu : V vic ci t chng
trinh phn tch d liu (Data Analysis)
trong Excel:
- Khi ci t phn mm Excel phi
thc hin trong ch chn la ci
t, sau phi chn mc: Add-Ins
v Analysis Toolpak.
- Khi chy Excel ln u cn m ch
phn tch d liu bng cch: Menu
Tools/Add-Ins v chn Analysis
Toolpak-OK. (i vi MS. Office
2003)
i vi MS. Office 2007, tin hnh m ch

phn tch thng k nh sau: Kch vo
Microsoft Office Button sau chn excel
options, kch vo Add-ins, v chn
Analysis ToolPak trong hp thoi - OK.
N h vy trong thc t qun l d liu nng

lm nghip ni ring, vic khai thc ht tim nng ng dng ca Excel cng mang li hiu qu
tt m khng nht thit phi tm kim thm mt phn mm chuyn dng no khc. Vn t
ra l xc nh chin lc ng dng v khai thc ng v su cc cng c chc nng sn c
mt phn mm ph bin bt k mt vi tnh c nhn no.
Mt s hm thng dng trong thng k:

o Tnh tng: =Sum(dy s).
o Tng bnh phng: =Sumq(dy s).
o Trung bnh: =Average(dy s).
o Ly gi tr tuyt i: =Abs(s).
o Tr ln nht, nh nht: =Max(dy s), Min(dy s).
o Cc hm lng gic: =Cos(s), =Sin(s), =tan(s).
o Hm m, log: =Exp(s), =Ln(s), =Log(s).
o Cn bc 2: =Sqrt(s)..
o Sai tiu chuNn mu cha hiu nh: =Stdevp(dy s); hiu nh =Stdev(dy
s).
o Phng sai mu cha hiu nh: =Varp(dy s); hiu nh =Var(dy s).
o Giai tha: =Fact(n).
o S Pi: =Pi().
Tra cc gi tr T, F, 2:
Chn 1 ly gi tr tra.
Kch nt fx trn thanh cng c chuNn. Trong hp thoi Function Category, chn
Statistical.
Trong mc Function name, chn 1 trong cc hm:
Hm Tinv: tra T.
Hm Chiinv: tra 2.
Hm Finv: tra F.
Bm N ext.
Trong hp thoi tip theo: Function Wizard chn:
o Probability (fx): G vo mc ngha =0.05 ; 0.01 hay 0.001.
o Degrees Freedom (fx): G vo bc t do. i vi tiu chuNn F cn ua vo 2
t do.
o Finish.
1.2 Tng qut v phn mm x l thng k Statgraphics Centuiron

y l mt phn mm chuyn dng trong x l thng k, bao gm cc chc nng:
- To lp c s d liu di dng bng tnh
- Tnh ton cc c trng mu, v s , th quan h
- So snh hai hay nhiu mu bng cc tiu chuNn thng k t, U, F v nhiu tiu chuNn phi
tham s khc.
- Phn tch phng sai AN OVA.
- Kim tra tnh chuNn ca d liu v i bin s.
- Thit lp cc m hnh hi quy tuyn tnh hay phi tuyn tnh t mt cho n nhiu lp, t
hp bin. Vi cch x l a dng chn la c cc bin nh hng n mt hu qa
(bin ph thuc).
Giao tip trong Statgraphics Centurion, s liu u vo c th c nhp trc tip trong file
bng tnh v c s d liu; song vi cc lm ny i khi khng thun tin trong cc bc x l
s liu th nh i bin s, tnh cc bin trung gian, m ha bin s. Do thng thng nn
to lp c s d liu trong bng tnh Excel c th s dng nhng chc nng bng tnh mnh
ca n trong x l d liu th, to lp c s d liu; sau s nhp vo Statgraphics Centurion
tnh ton, thit lp m hnh, .... C s d liu lp trong Excel cn lu di dng phin bn
ca Excel 97 2003, v n cha nhn c file Excel version 2007.
Sau khi nhp d liu trong Excel 97-2003, ng file ca Excel v m n trong Statgrahics
Centurion nh sau: File/Open/Open Data Source; chn External Data File OK. Trong hp
thoi m file, chn kiu file Excel v chn file cn m to trc .
2 THNG K M T
c nhng thng s c trng v mt i tng quan st nh sinh trng ca mt l rng, s
a dng loi ca l rng, s nh hng ca chy rng n mt , cht lng ti sinh, bin
ng tr lng, mt ca mt l rng trng, trng thi rng ..... cn tin thnh thu thp d
liu theo mt nhn t ch o v sau c lng, tnh ton cc c trng c bn. y l cc
thng tin c bn v mt i tng quan st, theo mt ch tiu, nhn t quan tm.
Cc c trng mu bao gm tnh cc ch tiu: S trung bnh, s trung v, phng sai, sai tiu
chuNn, lch, nhn ca dy s liu quan st, phm vi bin ng ca n vi mt mc sai s
cho php t trc.
V d: Kho st cc c trng c bn v sinh trng ng knh ca rng trng tch.
S liu o D1,3 rng trng Tch 14 tui trong tiu chuNn 500m2.
Cc c trng mu c th tnh ng thi trong Excel theo cc bc:
N hp s liu theo ct hoc hng.
Menu Tools/Data Analyisis/Descriptive Statistics/OK. C hp thoi, trong cn
xc nh:
o Input range: Khai bo khi d liu.
o Grouped by: Chn d liu nhp theo ct (Columns) hoc hng (Rows).
o Label in first row: N u a vo c hng tiu th nh du.
o Output range: nh vo a ch trn tri ni a ra kt qu.
o Summary Statistics: Thng tin tm lc cc c trng thng k (nh du).
o Kch nt OK
Bng nhp d liu ng knh D1.3 ca Tch
S dng chc nng phn tch c trng mu ca Excel

10
Kt qu tnh c trng mu
D1,3 (cm)
Mean
18,98
Standard Error
0,442
Median
19,1
Mode
19,42
Standard Deviation
3,16
Sample Variance
9,986
Kurtosis
0,852
Skewness
-0,227
Range
17,19
Minimum
9,868
Maximum
27,06
Sum
968
Count
51
Confidence Level (95,0%)
0,889
11
Gii thch:
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
Mean: S trung bnh.

Standard Error: Sai s ca s trung bnh mu.
Median: Trung v mu.
Mode: Tr s ng vi tn s phn b tp trung nht.
Standard deviation: Sai tiu chuNn mu.
Sample variance: Phng sai mu.
Kurtosis: nhn ca phn b
Ku = 0 phn b thc nghim tim cn chuNn.
Ku > 0 ng cong c dng bt hn so vi phn b chuNn.
Ku < 0 ng cong c nh nhn hn so vi phn b chuNn.
Ku = Kurt(A2:A52) = 0.852. nh ng cong thp hn so vi phn b chuNn.
Skewness: lch ca phn b.
Sk = 0 phn b i xng.
Sk > 0 nh ng cong lch tri so vi s trung bnh.
Sk < 0 nh ng cong lch phi so vi s trung bnh.
Sk = Skew(A2:A52) = -0.227. ng cong hi lch phi.
Minimum: Tr s quan st b nht.
Maximum: Tr s quan st ln nht.
Sum: Tng cc tr s quan st.
Count: Dung lng mu.
Cofidence level (95%): Sai s tuyt i ca c lng vi tin cy 95%.
Trong kt qu phn tch c trng mu ni trn, ngoi cc ch s ph bin cn quan tm nh s

trung bnh, phng sai; th hai gi tr quan trng thuyt minh kiu dng phn b ca d liu
quan st l Ku v Sk.
Khi Ku > 0 th gi tr quan st c xu hng phn tn xa s trung bnh, ngc li Ku < 0 th gi
tr quan st tp trung quanh s trung bnh nhiu hn. Khi Ku = 0 th nhn ca s liu quan
st tim cn chuNn
Khi Sk > 0 th s liu quan st c xu hng nghing v cc gi tr nh hn trung bnh, nu l s
liu sinh trng rng, th cy rng ang giai on non; ngc li Sk < 0, gi tr quan st
thin v cc gi tr ln hn trung bnh, nu quan st sinh trung rng, th y l cc khu rng
i vo thnh thc. N u Sk = 0 th lch tim cn chuNn.
Khi mt mu c Ku = 0 v Sk = 0 th n c phn b chuNn.
N u mu phn b cha chuNn th cn b sung mu theo cng thc mu cn thit nct:
. % /%
Trong V% l h s bin ng: % =
100 v % l sai s tng i cho trc.
Gi tr Confidence Level (95%) cho php c lng phm vi bin ng ca s trung bnh vi
tin cy 95%:
P(mean t.S/ n mean + t.S/ n ) = 0.95
trong t.S/ n = Confidence Level (95%)
V vy gi tr bin ng trung bnh ca tng th c c lng:
= mean Confidence Level (95%)
Ty theo yu cu ca cuc iu tra nh gi, th nghim m chn mc tin cy khc nhau:
90%, 95%, 99%.
12
3 SO SNH 1 2 MU QUAN ST BNG TIU CHUN T

Kim tra mu bng tiu chuNn t da vo gi thit phn phi chuNn ca mu quan st. C hai
loi kim tra t: kim tra t mt mu (one-sample t-test), v t cho hai mu (two-sample t-test).
Kim tra t mt mu nh gi s trung bnh ca mt mu c phi tht s bng mt ga tr no
hay khng?. Kim tra t hai mu th so snh hai mu c cng mt lut phn phi, hay c
th hn l hai mu c tht s c cng tr s trung bnh hay khng? Hay ni khc i c s sai
khc gia hai mu quan st hay khng?
3.1 So snh mt mu vi mt gi tr cho trc Kim tra T mt

mu
Trong m t quan st mt mu, ngi ta c th c yu cu nh gi gi tr trung bnh ca mu
vi mt gi tr cho trc, v d t o m chiu cao ca cy ti sinh trong rng khp, so snh
vi mt gi tr cho trc v chiu cao mong i cy rng vt qua c la rng, xem tht
s chiu cao ti sinh ca l rng t yu cu hay cha?
gii quyt vn ny, s dng kim nh t mt mu. Theo l thuyt thng k cng thc t
kim tra mt mu vi mt gi tr cho trc:

=
Trong , Xbq l gi tr trung bnh ca mu, l trung bnh theo gi thuyt, S l sai tiu chuNn
v n l s lng mu quan st.
- N u gi tr tuyt |t| tnh cao hn gi tr t l thuyt mc sai c ngha, thng l 5% th c
th kt lun c s khc bit c ngha thng k gia trung bnh mu vi gi tr cho trc
. V trong trng hp ny nu t tnh <0 th c ngha trung bnh ca mu nh thua c
ngha so vi trung bnh l thuyt, ngc li nu t tnh > 0 th trung bnh ca mu ln hn c
ngha so vi trung bnh l thuyt
- N u |t| tnh t(0.05, df) th c th kt lun mc sai 5% trung bnh mu quan st xp x vi
trung bnh l thuyt.
Trong t l thuyt c tnh theo hm =tinv(0.05, df), vi t do df = n-1.
S liu o cao cy ti sinh rng khp trong Excel
Chiu
cao cy
ti sinh
(m)
Stt
1
1.5
1.3
0.8
1.9
1.7
2.2
2.5
1.0
0.7
10
1.9
11
1.8
13
58
1.6
59
2.0
60
1.9
61
1.7
tnh c gi tr t, cn tnh ton c trng mu c cc gi tr thng k v Xbq, S.

Kt qu tnh c trng mu ti sinh rng khp
Chiu cao cy ti sinh (m)
Mean
Standard Error
Median
Mode
Standard Deviation
Sample Variance
Kurtosis
Skewness
Range
Minimum
Maximum
Sum
Count
1.64
0.06318
1.7
1.9
0.49347
0.24351
-0.4499
-0.4627
1.8
0.7
2.5
100.3
61
Confidence Level(95.0%)
0.12638
T tnh gi tr thng k t: So snh trung bnh chiu cao ti sinh vi gi tr l thuyt =2m
1.64 2
= 5.63
=
0.493
61
V t l thuyt: t (0.05, df = n-1) = tinv(0.05, 60) = 2.00
Kt qu cho thy |t| = 5.63 > t(0.05, 60). Kt lun: C s sai khc c ngha gia trung bnh
chiu cao cy ti sinh rng khp vi gi tr trung bnh l thuyt mong i l 2m. V t < 0 do
c ngha l chiu cao trung bnh cy ti sinh nh thua c ngha khi so vi chiu cao mong i
l 2m; hay ni khc nu vi yu cu cao trn 2m th mi thot c nh hng ca la rng,
th l rng ny cy ti sinh cha t c.
3.2 So snh s sai khc gia trung bnh 2 mu Kim tra T 2 mu

Trong cc th nghim thng ngi ta cn so snh kt qu ca 2 cng thc, v d: Bn phn
hay khng bn, che bng hay khng che, sinh trng, ti sinh ca cy rng ni c chm sc
v ni khng, sinh trng cy rng ni chy v khng chy.....Vic kim tra tin hnh theo 2
mu trn c s so snh 2 s trung bnh bng cc tiu chuNn t.
14
Cng thc tnh gi tr kim tra t:

t=
X1 X 2
2
( n1 1) S1 + ( n 2 1) S 2
n1 + n 2 2
1
1
+
)
n1 n 2
Vi:
X1, X2: Trung bnh ca mu 1 v 2.

S12, S22: Phng sai mu 1 v 2.
n1, n2: dung lng 2 mu 1 v 2.
N u t tnh ln hn t bng vi =0.05 v t do K=n1+n2-2 th bc b gi thuyt Ho,
c ngha trung bnh 2 mu sai khc c ngha, v ngi ta s chn mu c trung bnh cao.
Trc khi s dng tiu chun t, cn kim tra 2 iu kin:
o Hai mu c phn b chuNn.
o Phng sai ca hai mu c bng nhau hay khng
Hai mu c phn b chun: C th v biu phn b tn s tng mu, hoc da
vo lch v nhn xem xt c tim cn chuNn hay khng. Trong nhiu
trong hp thng k v x hi ln t nhin, ngi ta phi rt mu ln bo
m tiu ch ny. Khi dung lng mi mu >30 th c th xem l tim cn chuNn.
Kim tra bng nhau ca 2 phng sai ca 2 mu bng tiu chun F.
Trc khi chn la tiu chuNn t so snh trung bnh 2 mu, cn kim tra s sai khc phng
sai ca chng bng tiu chuNn F.
V d: Kim tra sinh trng chiu cao H ca 2 phng php trng thng 3 l Pinus kesiya bng
cy con v r trn ti trm thc nghim Lang Hanh-Lm ng: Mi cng thc c rt mu
theo tiu chuNn 1000m2, o m chiu cao:
- Dung lng quan st mi mu >90cy, nn chp nhn gi thuyt phn b N H ca tng mu tim cn chuNn.
- Kim tra bng nhau ca 2 phng sai bng tiu chuNn F:
Bng tm tt s liu sinh trng H ca hai mu
1
H (cy con)
H (r trn)
13,6
13
14
13,5
13,8
12
13
13,5
11
15
12
14
12,5
10
93
94
Tnh F: Mt trong 2 cch:

C1: Kch nt fx, c hp thoi: Chn: Statistical (trong Function Category) v
Ftest-N ext (trong Function name): Xut hin hi thoi tip theo:
Array 1: a vo dy 1: A2:A93
15
Array 2: a vo dy 2: B2:B94
Finish.
C2: a n kt qu: =Ftest(A2:A93,B2:b94) Enter.
Nu gi tr xc sut P > 0.05, kt lun hai phng sai bng nhau, nu ngc li th bc
b.
Kt qu v d trn c P=0.40>0.05, kt lun phng sai hai mu bng nhau (cha c sai
d r).
Dng tiu chun t kim tra gi thuyt Ho theo trnh t:
Trong menu Tools/Data Analysis: Chn trong hp thoi mt trong hai trng hp tu
theo phng sai hai mu c bng nhau hay khng qua kim tra bng F bc trc
o t-Test: Two sample assuming equal variance (Trng hp phng sai bng
nhau).
o t-Test: Two sample assuming unequal variance (Trng hp phng sai khng
bng nhau).
Trong Hp thoi: Xc nh:

o Variable 1 range: Khi d liu mu 1 (A1:A93)
o Variable 2 range: Khi d liu mu 2 (B1:B94)
N n a c tiu .
o Hypothesized mean diference: a vo 0 (C ngha gi thuyt Ho=0). C th
thay i gi thuyt ny theo yu cu nh gi th nghim. V d nu mun kim
tra xem hai trung bnh ca hai mu c thc s sai khc nhau khng, gi thuyt
Ho s l: Ho: Mean1 = Mean2 hay ni khc Mean1 Mean 2 = 0, lc ny gii
thuyt Ho c t gi tr l 0.
o Label: N u c a hng tiu vo th cn nh du vo label
o Output range: a a ch trn tri ni xut kt qu.
o OK.
16
N u: P(T<=t) two tail (hai chiu) <0.05, bc b Ho, c ngha 2 mu sai d r, ngc
li th trung bnh hai mu cha c sai khc.
Hoc |t Stat| > t Critical two tail (t hai chiu), bc b Ho, hai mu sai d r,
ngc li th sai khc l ngu nhin.
t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Equal Variances

H (cy con)
H (r trn)
Mean
11,60434783
13,40322581
Variance
2,559761108
2,148141655
92
93
Observations
Pooled Variance
2,352826738
Hypothesized Mean
Difference
df
t Stat
0
183
-7,975469453
P(T<=t) one-tail
7,98781E-14
t Critical one-tail
1,653222625
P(T<=t) two-tail
1,59756E-13
t Critical two-tail
1,973012331
T kt qu trn cho thy sinh trng ca P.kesiya trng bng 2 phng php khc nhau
sai d r. Chiu cao bnh qun cy trng bng r trn hn hn trng bng cy con, do vy
phng php trng thng 3 l bng r trn cn c ng dng trong thc tin.
4 NGHIN CU MI QUAN H SINH THI LOI TRONG

RNG MA NHIT I DA VO TIU CHUN 2 (Bo
Huy, 1997)
Rng hn loi nhit i bao gm nhiu loi cy cng tn ti, thi gian cng tn ti ca mt s
loi trong ph thuc vo mc ph hp hay i khng gia chng vi nhau trong qu
trnh li dng nhng yu t mi trng. C th phn ra lm 3 trng hp:
Lin kt dng: L trng hp nhng loi cy c th cng tn ti sut qu trnh
sinh trng, gia chng khng c s cnh tranh v nh sng, v cc cht dinh
dng trong t v khng lm hi nhau thng qua cc cht hoc sinh vt trung gian
khc.
Lin kt m: L trng hp nhng loi cy khng th tn ti lu di bn cnh nhau
c do c nhng i khng quyt lit trong qu trnh li dng cc yu t mi
trng (nh sng, cht dinh dng trong t, nc..), c khi loi tr ln nhau thng
qua nhiu yu t nh: c t l cy, cc tinh du hoc sinh vt trung gian..
Quan h ngu nhin: L trng hp nhng loi cy tn ti tng i c lp vi
nhau.
17
Vic nghin cu mi quan h gia cc loi l nhm mc ch:

Phc v vic n gin ha t thnh, xc nh vic nn gi li v o thi loi cy no
trong thit k nui dng, khai thc rng t nhin.
nh hng trong vic la chn nhm loi cy hn giao trong trng rng, lm giu
rng.
Tuy nhin, nghin cu y mi quan h gia cc loi cy trong rng t nhin l mt vn
phc tp, i hi cn c trn nhiu yu t. Trong thng k sinh hc, phng php d bo c
s dng xc nh mi quan h gia cc loi, lm c s cho vic nh hng la chn m
hnh trng rng hn giao, iu chnh t thnh trong cng tc lm sinh.
Phng php nghin cu gm c cc bc chnh:
Xc nh din tch biu hin loi
D bo mi quan h gia cc loi

i)
nghin cu mi quan h sinh thi gia cc loi, cn phi rt mu theo tiu chuNn tnh
ton xc sut xut hin cc loi, vn t ra l kch thc tiu chuNn bao nhiu bo m
i din, chnh l xc nh din tch biu hin loi.
N guyn tc nghin cu trong trng hp ny l xc nh mt din tch mu nh nht nhng
bo m xut hin cc loi u th sinh thi.
Thu thp s loi theo tiu chuNn din tch thay i (Theo tng loi: Cy g, cy ti sinh), din
tch bt u l 100m2 v tng dn n khong 1 2ha.
S loi theo kch thc mu tng dn
Stt
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Din tch tiu chun

(m2)
100
100
100
,,,,
200
200
,,,
400
400
,,,
600
2500
S loi
Tn loi
5
4
6
,,,,
6
8
,,,,
10
11
,,,
a, d, hg
,,,,
,,,
18
C th biu th vic xc nh din tch biu hin loi bng th sau:
18
S loi
n nh loi
Din tch tc
(S)
Din tch
biu hin loi
M phng quan h: N (s loi) = f(S=din tch tiu chuNn), dng quan h sau c th c s
dng:
N = a.e
b. S m
Lim N = a.e
Khi S +
b. S m
=a
V d: Tin hnh iu tra th nghim 53 c din tch t 100m2 n 10.000m2 rng khp
vn Ea Soup, trn mi xc nh s loi thuc tng cy g (c ng knh ngang ngc ln
10cm) xut hin. Tin hnh m phng quy lut bin i s loi (N ) theo din tch (S) bng
mt dng hm m c s e. Kt qu c lng cc tham s:
N = 16.810.e 6.900.S
Vi n=53
0.246
R=0.907
Fr=722.58
<0.01
Phng trnh t h s tng quan cao chng t c mi lin h cht ch gia N v S, v dng
hm ny m t tt chiu hng bin thin.
Kho st hm ny cho thy khi tng din tch ln v hn th s loi xut hin tim cn vi gi
tr ca tham s a = 16.810. N h vy c ngha l i vi rng khp ti Ea Soup, s lng loi
thuc tng cy g khng nhiu, ch t n 17 loi.
c bit mt s loi c h s t thnh gn nh tuyt i. Cc loi ph bin ca rng khp: C
chc (Shorea obtusa); CNm lin (Pentacme siamensis), Du ng (Dipteocarpus tuberculatus),
Du tr beng (Dipterocarpus obtusifolius), Chiu liu (Terminalia mycrocarpa) v mt s loi
thuc loi khc c t l thp hn trong t thnh. N h vy s loi ph bin trn mt n v din
tch rng khp ch khong 5-6 loi.
T phng trnh, th gi tr N =6 vo suy c din tch biu hin, y cng chnh l din tch
cn c ca mt tiu chuNn trong rt mu iu tra nghin cu quan h sinh thi loi. Din tch
biu hin trong trng hp ny l S = 2.500m2. V c th chn hnh vung vi kch thc
50x50m.
ii)
D bo mi quan h sinh thi gia cc loi
Trn c s xc nh dc din tch biu hin sinh thi loi; tip tc xc nh dung lng
mu (s tiu chuNn) cho tng sinh cnh theo cng thc:
19
t 2 .V % 2
N ct
Trong : t = 1,96 khi tin cy l 95%
% 2
V%: h s bin ng v s loi, c tnh theo cng thc:
V% =
S
100
X
x 2 ( x )
S=
n 1
S: sai tiu chuNn mu

n: s rt mu th (thng chn n 30)
x: s loi trn mi
%: sai s cho php t 5% - 10%.
Thng rt th 30 iu tra, nu s liu ghi nhn khng m bo dung lng mu cn thit
theo cng thc trn th cn phi tin hnh iu tra b sung, ngc li th vic iu tra b sung
khng cn cn thit.
Sau khi xc nh s lng tiu chuNn rt mu th, tin hnh xc nh c ly gia cc tuyn v
c ly gia cc trn tuyn bo m cc mu c ri u trn din tch kho st. Tin
hnh thu thp d liu trn c din tch biu hin, trong tp trung xc nh tn loi xut
hin
T s liu quan st, xc nh s loi u th nghin cu mi quan h gia chng. Trn quan
im sinh thi, loi u th c chn thng phi c IV% >% hoc tn sut F%>5%.
V d: T 32 tiu chuNn c rt mu ngu nhin trong rng thng xanh khu vc Dk
RLp, thng k c tn sut xut hin ca cc loi ch yu:
Tn sut xut hin cc loi
Stt Loi
Tn s
Tn
xut hin
sut (F%)
Tn Vit Nam
Tn Khoa Hc
Lithocarpus sp
30
13.0
Bng lng
Lagerstroemia calyculata
27
11.7
Xng c
Canthium didynum
23
10.0
Xoan Mc
Toona sureni
19
8.2
Bi li
Litsea glutinosa
18
7.8
B hn
Sapindus mukorossi
16
6.9
Ch xt
Schima superba
15
6.5
Vng trng
Endospermum chinnese
14
6.1
Trm
Eugenia sp.
14
6.1
10 Ba
Garcinia loureiri
11
4.8
11 Phay sng
Duabanga sonneratioides
3.5
12 Cm
Parinari anamense
2.6
13 Du da t
Baccaurea sapida
2.6
20
Stt Loi
Tn Vit Nam
Tn s
Tn
xut hin
sut (F%)
Tn Khoa Hc
14 Thng mc
Wrightia annamensis
2.6
15 Mu ch
Knema conferta
1.7
16 Chua kht
Dysoxylum acutangulum
1.7
17 Trm
Canarium copaliferum
1.3
18 Go
Gossampinus malabaria
0.9
19 Su u
Azadirachta indica
0.9
20 Ch ch
Parashorea chinensis
0.9
21 Gn
Bombax anceps
0.4
T biu trn cho thy trong cc loi ch yu, c 9 loi c tn sut > 5%. Trong rng hn loi,
cc loi c tn sut > 5% c xem l loi ng vai tr quan trng trong hnh thnh sinh thi
rng, do chn 9 loi ny xem xt quan h gia chng vi nhau.
T tiu chuNn c din tch biu hin c rt mu ngu nhin, tin hnh kim tra quan h cho
tng cp loi theo tiu chuNn v 2.
S dng cc tiu chuNn thng k sau nh gi quan h theo tng cp loi:
: H s tng quan gia 2 loi A v B.
P( AB ) P ( A).P( B)
P( A).(1 P( A)).P( B).(1 P( B))
Trong :
= 0 : 2 loi A v B c lp nhau.
0 < 1: loi A v B lin kt dng.
-1 < 0: loi A v B lin kt m (bi xch nhau).
Xc xut xut hin loi:
P(AB): Xc sut xut hin ng thi ca 2 loi A v B
P(A): Xc sut xut hin loi A.
P(B): Xc sut xut hin loi B.
nAB
nA + nAB
nB + nAB
P ( AB ) =
P ( A) =
P( B) =
n
n
n
Vi:
nA: s tiu chuNn ch xut hin loi A.
nB: s tiu chuNn ch xut hin loi B.
nAB: s tiu chuNn xut hin ng thi 2 loi A v B.
n: tng s quan st ngu nhin.
ni ln chiu hng lin h v mc lin h gia 2 loi. < 0: 2 loi lin kt m v || cng
ln th mc bi xch nhau cng mnh, ngc li > 0: 2 loi lin kt dng v || cng ln
th mc h tr nhau cng cao.
21
Trong trng hp || xp x = 0, th cha th bit gia 2 loi c thc s quan h vi nhau hay
khng? Lc ny cn s dng thm phng php kim tra tnh c lp bng mu biu 2x2:
Vic kim tra mi quan h gia 2 loi A v B c thc hin bng tiu chuNn 2:
2 =
( ad bc 0.5).2 n
(a + b).(c + d ).( a + c).(b + d )
Trong :
a = nAB ; b = nB; c = nA; d: s khng cha c 2 loi a v B.
2t tnh c cng thc trn c so snh vi 20.05 ng vi bc t do K=1 20.05,
K=1 = 3.84
N u 2t 20.05 = 3.84 th mi quan h gia 2 loi l ngu nhin.
N u 2t > 20.05 = 3.84 th gia 2 loi c quan h vi nhau.
Tm li xem xt mi quan h theo tng cp loi, s dng ng thi 2 tiu chuNn v 2:
2: kim tra mi quan h tng cp loi.
: trong trng hp kim tra bng 2 cho thy c quan h, th s cho bit chiu
hng mi quan h theo du ca (- hay +) v mc quan h qua gi tr ||.
Kim tra quan h theo tng cp loi
Stt
Loi A
Loi B
nA(c) nB(b) nAB(a) nAB(d)

5
13
14
0
Xoan Mc
Bng Lng
Xoan Mc
11
19
Xoan Mc
Bi Li
Xoan Mc
Vng Trng
10
Xoan Mc
Trm
Xoan Mc
7
8
Quan h
P(A)
P(B)
P(AB)
0.594
0.844
0.438
-0.356
3.99
C quan h m
0.594
0.938
0.594
0.312
3.04
Ngu nhin
12
0.594
0.563
0.375
0.168
0.89
Ngu nhin
0.594
0.438
0.281
0.088
0.24
Ngu nhin
10
0.594
0.438
0.281
0.088
0.24
Ngu nhin
Xng c
14
0.594
0.719
0.438
0.049
0.07
Ngu nhin
Xoan Mc
B hn
10
0.594
0.500
0.281
-0.064
0.12
Ngu nhin
Xoan Mc
Ch xt
12
0.594
0.469
0.219
-0.243
1.86
Ngu nhin
Bng Lng D
25
0.844
0.938
0.781
-0.111
0.36
Ngu nhin
10
Bng Lng Bi Li
13
14
0.844
0.563
0.438
-0.206
0.40
Ngu nhin
11
Bng Lng Vng Trng
16
11
0.844
0.438
0.344
-0.141
0.61
Ngu nhin
12
Bng Lng Trm
14
13
0.844
0.438
0.406
0.206
1.32
Ngu nhin
13
Bng Lng Xng c
18
0.844
0.719
0.563
-0.269
2.27
Ngu nhin
14
Bng Lng B hn
13
14
0.844
0.500
0.438
0.086
0.22
Ngu nhin
15
Bng Lng Ch xt
13
14
0.844
0.469
0.438
0.232
1.68
Ngu nhin
16
Bi Li
14
16
0.938
0.563
0.500
-0.228
1.60
Ngu nhin
17
Vng Trng
18
12
0.938
0.438
0.375
-0.293
2.67
Ngu nhin
18
Trm
17
13
0.938
0.438
0.406
-0.033
0.03
Ngu nhin
19
Xng c
23
0.938
0.719
0.719
0.413
5.33
C quan h dng
20
B hn
14
16
0.938
0.500
0.500
0.258
2.07
Ngu nhin
21
Ch xt
16
14
0.938
0.469
0.438
-0.016
0.00
Ngu nhin
22
Bi li
Vng Trng
11
0.563
0.438
0.219
-0.111
0.38
Ngu nhin
23
Bi li
Trm
11
11
0.563
0.438
0.344
0.397
4.99
C quan h dng
24
Bi li
Xng c
10
13
0.563
0.719
0.406
0.009
0.00
Ngu nhin
25
Bi li
B hn
11
0.563
0.500
0.219
-0.252
2.00
Ngu nhin
22
Stt
Loi A
Loi B
nA(c) nB(b) nAB(a) nAB(d)

13
10
5
4
26
Bi li
Ch xt
27
Vng trng Trm
0.438
0.438
0.156
28
Vng trng Xng c
14
0.438
0.719
0.281
29
Vng trng B hn
11
0.438
0.500
0.281
30
Vng trng Ch xt
10
0.438
0.469
0.219
31
Trm
Xng c
12
11
0.438
0.719
0.344
32
Trm
B hn
10
0.438
0.500
0.250
33
Trm
Ch xt
11
12
0.438
0.469
0.094
34
Xng c
B hn
14
0.719
0.500
35
Xng c
Ch xt
16
0.719
36
B hn
Ch xt
0.500
Quan h
P(A)
P(B)
P(AB)
0.563
0.469
0.156
-0.434
5.97
C quan h m
-0.143
0.64
Ngu nhin
-0.149
0.69
Ngu nhin
0.252
2.00
Ngu nhin
0.055
0.09
Ngu nhin
0.131
0.53
Ngu nhin
0.126
0.49
Ngu nhin
-0.450
6.42
C quan h dng
0.438
0.348
3.82
Ngu nhin
0.469
0.219
-0.527
8.80
C quan h m
0.469
0.219
-0.063
0.12
Ngu nhin
T kt qu ny c th xc nh c:
Cc loi c quan h dng: 2t > 20.05 = 3.84 v > 0: Cc loi ny nn c la
chn trng hn giao, hoc lm giu rng
Cc loi c quan h m: 2t > 20.05 = 3.84 v < 0: Cc loi ny khng nn c la
chn trng hn giao, hoc lm giu rng; v cn loi tr bt s cnh tranh gia chng
Cc loi c quan h ngu nhin: 2t 20.05 = 3.84: Cc loi ny c th tn ti kh c
lp, do vy la chn chng hn giao hay loi tr cng khng nh hng n quan h sinh
thi loi.
5 PHN TCH PHNG SAI

Phn tch phng sai l mt trong nhng phng php phn tch thng k quan trng, c bit
l trong cc th nghim ging, th nghim cc nhn t tc ng n hiu qu, cht lng ca
cy trng, vt nui, gieo um, kim nghim xut x cy trng. Ch yu nh gi nh hng
ca cc cng thc, nhn t n kt qu th nghim, lm c s cho vic la chn cng thc,
phng php ti u trong nng lm nghip.
iu kin phn tch phng sai l:
Cc gi tr quan st trong tng th nghim c phn b chun:
o Kim tra bng c trng mu, s .
o N u dung lng quan st ln (n>30) th chp nhn gi thuyt phn b
chuNn.
Cc phng sai ca tng nhn t bng nhau: Kim tra bng tiu chuNn Cochran
(nu s ln lp li bng nhau), bng tiu chuNn Bartlett (nu s ln lp ca cc cng
thc khng bng nhau).
5.1. Phn tch phng sai 1 nhn t vi cc th nghim ngu

nhin hon ton
Phn tch ny c mt nhn t nh xut x cy trng, mt trng khc nhau, ch chm sc
khc nhau, ....C ngha trong c a cng thc, mi cng thc c lp li m ln, s ln lp
ca mi cng thc c th bng hoc khng bng nhau.
Trong trng hp ny c th s dng chng trnh phn tch phng sai mt nhn t kim
tra nh hng ca cc cng thc n kt qu th nghim.
23
Cch b tr th nghim trn hin trng phn tch phng sai 1 nhn t
Cc
cng S ln lp li
thc ca 1
1
2
3
m
nhn t
1
11
12
13
1m
2
21
22
....
...
...
...
...
a
a1
a2
am
V d: nh gi kt qu kho nghim xut x Pinus caribeae ti Lang Hanh-Lm ng.

Theo d kin s c 10 xut x P.caribeae c trng kho nghim ti trm thc nghim Lang
Hanh nm 1991. Vic b tr th nghim ban u d kin tin hnh theo khi ngu nhin y
RCB (Randomized Complete Blocks), bao gm 10 cng thc ch th 10 xut x v c lp
li 4 khi.
N hng trong qu trnh trin khai trng thc nghim, ch cn li 7 xut x v ch c 5 xut x
lp li 4 ln, cn 2 xut x ch c lp li 2 ln.
7 xut x P.caribeae c trng thc t, c nh s v lp li nh sau:
1: Xut x
P.alamicamba (N IC) lp li 4 ln.
2:
P.poptun (Guat)
4
3:
P.guanaja (N onduras)
4
4:
P.linures (N onduras)
4
5:
P.R482 (Australia)
2
6:
P.T473 (Australia)
4
8:
P.little asaco (Bahamas)
2
o Mi xut x ng vi 1 ln lp c trng 25 cy, vi c ly 3x2m, tng din tch b tr
th nghim l 1ha.
o Cc iu kin t ai, vi kh hu, ia hnh, chm sc...u c ng nht, nhn t thay
i kho st ch cn li l cc xut x khc nhau.
o Ti thi im iu tra (1996), cy trng trong cc th nghim c tui l 5. Tin hnh
o m ton din cc ch tiu D1,3, H, Dt, phNm cht, ta cnh, hnh thn. S dng 2 ch
tiu D1,3 v H nh gi sinh trng ca cc xut x th nghim.
Dng phn tch phng sai nh gi s sai khc v sinh trng cc xut x
Trc ht kim tra 2 iu kin phn tch phng sai:
o iu kin phn b chuNn: Cc gi tr quan st tng th nghim qua kim tra bng
biu u c dng tim cn chuNn nn chp nhn gi thuyt phn b chuNn.
o Phng sai bng nhau: Do dung lng mu cc xut x khng bng nhau nn dng
tiu chuNn Bartlett kim tra, kt qu tnh c:
X2 = 3,73 < X2 (0,05; 6) = 12,59
Do chp nhn gi thuyt bng nhau ca cc phng sai mu.
N h vy 2 iu kin trn l tha mn tin hnh phn tch phng sai.
Dng phn tch phng sai 1 nhn t kim tra. Trong nhn t l Xut x vi 7 cng
thc:
24
Gi tr D1,3 (cm) bnh qun ng vi tng th nghim ca cc Xut x theo khi (ln lp
li)
1
Xut x
Lp 1
Lp 2
Lp 3
Lp 4
10.8
11.2
10.4
9.9
12.3
11.5
9.5
10.0
9.4
10.5
11.0
9.5
9.0
10.8
11.5
8.7
14.2
12.9
12.3
12.5
12.4
10.8
7.0
9.8
Phn tch phng sai 1 nhn t:

Vo menu Tools/Data Analysis/Anova: Chn Single Factor c c Hp thoi:
o Input range: N hp a ch khi d liu. Vd: A2:E8. (C ct u cha s hiu
cng thc, nhng b hng u).
o Grouped by: Chn Columns hoc Rows.
o nh du vo Label in first colum (row).
o Output range: a a ch trn tri ni xut kt qu.
o Kch OK.
25
Kt qu phn tch phng sai 1 nhn t

Anova: Single Factor
SUMMARY
Groups
Count
Sum
Average
Variance
42.3
10.6
0.299523
43.2
10.8
1.703825
40.3
10.1
0.616404
40.0
10.0
1.780196
27.1
13.5
0.797116
48.1
12.0
0.673895
16.7
8.4
3.903367
AN OVA
Source of Variation
SS
df
MS
Between Groups
37.53507
6.255846
Within Groups
19.92201
17
1.171883
Total
57.45708
23
P-value
5.338286
0.002925
F crit
2.698656
T bng AN OVA nhn c: i vi cc xut x khc nhau: F = 5,33 > F(0,05) = 2,69. Kt
lun: Cc xut x khc nhau c s sai khc v sinh trng ng knh. N u ngc li th kt
lun rng gia cc xut x cha c s sai khc v sinh trng
Sinh trng bnh qun ng knh cc xut x theo th t t cao n thp bng sau:
Th t sinh trng ng knh t tt n xu
Xut x
ni
D1,3 tb (cm)
13.5
12.0
10.8
10.6
10.1
10.0
8.4
Tip theo dng tiu chuNn t so snh sinh trng ng knh ln nht ca xut x 5 vi cc
xut x c ng knh ln lt nh hn:
So snh D bnh qun gia xut x 5 vi 6:
t = 1,61 < t(0,05 ; k=17)=2,11.
Kt lun: Sinh trng D gia xut x 5 v 6 cha c sai khc r rt.
t = 2,90 > t(0,05 ; k=17)=2,11.
Kt lun: Sinh trng D gia xut x 5 v 2 c sai khc r rt.
26
N h vy, xt theo ch tiu ng knh, xut x ti u trong 7 xut x kho nghim l 5 v 6,

hai xut x ny c ch tiu D ln nht, cha c sai d vi nhau v c sai khc r rt vi cc xut
x cn li. l 2 xut x: P.R482 (Australia) v P.T473 (Australia).
5.2. Phn tch phng sai 2 nhn t

Trong cc th nghim ngi ta thng so snh v phn tch tc ng ng thi 2 nhn t ln
kt qu th nghim nh: nng sut, sinh khi... Phn tch phng sai lc ny chia 2 trng hp:
Hai nhn t vi mt ln lp v Hai nhn t vi nhiu ln lp li.
5.2.1. Phn tch phng sai 2 nhn t vi 1 ln lp li: (B tr th nghim theo khi
ngu nhin y (Randomized Complete Blocks) (RCB):
Kiu b tr th nghim RCB thng c s dng, nhn t A chia lm a cp v nhn t B c
chia b cp (khi), t hp 2 nhn t ch c 1 ln lp (1 th nghim).
Nhn t B1
A1
A2
A3
A4
Aa
B tr th nghim trn hin trng

Nhn t B2
Nhn t B3
Aa
A2
A4
A3
A3
Aa
A2
A4
A1
A1
Nhn t Bb
A2
A3
A1
A4
Aa
N hn t B c chia thnh b khi, mi khi b tr a cng thc ca nhn t A mt cch ngu

nhin.
V d: nh gi kt qu kho nghim 16 xut x Pinus kesiya ti Lang Hanh-Lm ng: 16
xut x P.kesiya c trng kho nghim ti trm thc nghim Lang Hanh nm 1991. Vic
b tr th nghim c tin hnh theo khi ngu nhin y RCB (Randomized Complete
Blocks), bao gm 16 cng thc ch th 16 xut x v c lp li 4 cp t (khi)
16 xut x P.kesiya c nh s nh sau:
1: Xut x
Bengliet.
2:
Faplac.
3:
Xun Th.
4:
Thc Prenn.
5:
Lang Hanh.
6:
N ong Kiating.
7:
Doisupthep.
8:
Doiinthranon.
9:
Phu Kradung.
10:
N am nouv.
11:
Cotomines.
12:
Simao.
13:
Watchan.
14:
Zo khua.
15:
Aung ban.
16:
Jingdury.
o Mi cng thc ng vi 1 ln lp c trng 25 cy, vi c ly 3x2m, tng din tch b
tr th nghim l 1,5ha.
27
o Cc kh hu, a hnh, chm sc...u c ng nht, nhn t thay i kho st ch

cn li l cc xut x v cp t khc nhau.
o Ti thi im iu tra (1996), cy trng trong cc th nghim c tui l 5. Tin hnh
o m ton din cc ch tiu D1,3, H, Dt, phNm cht, ta cnh, hnh thn. S dng 2 ch
tiu D1,3 v H nh gi sinh trng ca cc xut x th nghim.
Dng phn tch phng sai nh gi s sai khc v sinh trng, c th cho tng ch
tiu sinh trng nh sau:
Trc ht kim tra 2 iu kin phn tch phng sai:
iu kin phn b chuNn: Cc gi tr quan st tng th nghim qua kim tra bng
biu u c dng tim cn chuNn nn chp nhn gi thuyt phn b chuNn.
Phng sai bng nhau: Dng tiu chuNn Cochran, kt qu tnh c:
Gmax = 0,11 < Gmax (0,05 ; 16 ; 3) = 0,28
Do chp nhn gi thuyt bng nhau ca cc phng sai mu.
N h vy 2 iu kin trn l tha mn tin hnh phn tch phng sai.
Dng phn tch phng sai 2 nhn t 1 ln lp kim tra:
Vi nhn t th nht l 16 xut x, nhn t th 2 l cp t vi 4 cp. ng vi 1 t hp Xut
x - Cp t ch c 1 th nghim (lp li 1 ln).
Bng d liu phn tch phng sai 2 nhn t 1 ln lp
Gi tr D1,3 (cm) bnh qun ng vi tng th nghim theo 2 nhn t 1 ln lp
1
Xut x
Cp t 1
Cp t 2
Cp t 3
Cp t 4
11.4
11.3
10.8
13.3
11.4
11.6
10.9
10.9
11.7
12.6
11.7
12.6
13.7
12.1
11.6
11.7
14.1
13.6
13.7
13.7
13.5
11.4
12.2
11.3
13.8
12.3
12.6
11.4
14.1
13.3
15.2
13.0
10
13.8
11.8
11.9
12.1
11
10
11.3
11.8
12.1
11.8
12
11
12.6
12.6
13.3
10.9
13
12
11.3
12.4
10.5
12.0
14
13
12.7
13.4
12.1
10.7
15
14
10.1
9.5
9.8
8.0
16
15
10.5
9.4
9.1
10.9
17
16
10.2
11.0
10.8
11.9
Phn tch phng sai 2 nhn t 1 ln lp:

o Tools/Data Analysis/Anova: Two Factor Without Replication - OK.
o Hp thoi:
Input range: a ch khi d liu (N n qut c hng, ct u lm nhn). Vd:
A1:E17
28
nh du vo Labels.
Output range: a ch trn tri ni xut kt qu
OK
Kt qu phn tch phng sai 2 nhn t 1 ln lp li

Anova: Two-Factor Without Replication
SUMMARY
Count
Sum
Average
Variance
46.9
11.7
1.253512
44.8
11.2
0.156318
48.6
12.2
0.268337
49.1
12.3
0.933224
55.1
13.8
0.049285
48.5
12.1
1.064903
50.0
12.5
0.975826
55.7
13.9
0.926688
49.7
12.4
0.817143
10
47.0
11.7
0.107475
11
49.3
12.3
1.054463
12
46.1
11.5
0.664541
13
48.9
12.2
1.255351
14
37.4
9.3
0.85117
15
39.9
10.0
0.763403
16
43.9
11.0
0.514494
29
Cp t 1
16
196.1
12.3
2.077919
Cp t 2
16
190.2
11.9
1.470334
Cp t 3
16
188.3
11.8
2.263297
Cp t 4
16
186.3
11.6
1.767392
AN OVA
Source of Variation
SS
df
MS
P-value
F crit
Rows
82.11826
15 5.474551 7.804468 3.58E-08 1.894875
Columns
3.402532
3 1.134177 1.616873 0.198718 2.811547
Error
31.56586
45 0.701464
Total
117.0867
63
T bng AN OVA nhn c:

i vi cc xut x khc nhau (Hng - Rows): F = 7,80 > F(0,05) = 1,89. Kt lun:
Cc xut x khc nhau c s sai khc v sinh trng ng knh.
i vi cc cp t (Ct Collumns):
F = 1,62 < F(0,05) = 2,81. Kt lun:
Cc cp t khc nhau cha c nh hng n sinh trng.
N h vy 16 xut x khi trng Lang Hanh c sinh trng khc nhau, do vic cp t khng
nh hng rt, nn nh gi chnh xc hn ch cn phn tch phng sai 1 nhn t (xut x).
Phn tch phng sai 1 nhn t
Anova: Single Factor
SUMMARY
Groups
Count
Sum
Average
Variance
46.9
11.7
1.253512
44.8
11.2
0.156318
48.6
12.2
0.268337
49.1
12.3
0.933224
55.1
13.8
0.049285
48.5
12.1
1.064903
50.0
12.5
0.975826
55.7
13.9
0.926688
49.7
12.4
0.817143
10
47.0
11.7
0.107475
11
49.3
12.3
1.054463
12
46.1
11.5
0.664541
30
13
48.9
12.2
1.255351
14
37.4
9.3
0.85117
15
39.9
10.0
0.763403
16
43.9
11.0
0.514494
AN OVA
Source of Variation
Between Groups
Within Groups
Total
SS
df
MS
82.11826
15
5.474551
34.9684
48
0.728508
117.0867
63
F
7.514741
P-value
3.59E-08
F crit
1.880174
Kt qu t bng AN OVA cho thy F = 7,51 > F(0,05) = 1,88. Kt lun: Sinh trng
ng knh ca 16 xut x l khc nhau khi trng Lang Hanh.
Sinh trng bnh qun ng knh cc xut x theo th t t cao n thp bng sau:
Th t sinh trng ng knh t tt n xu
Xut x
D1,3 tb(cm)
8
13.9
13.8
12.5
12.4
11
12.3
12.3
13
12.2
12.2
12.1
10
11.7
11.7
12
11.5
11.2
16
11.0
15
10.0
14
9.3
Kt qu dng tiu chuNn t so snh sinh trng ng knh ln nht ca xut x 8 vi cc

xut x c ng knh ln lt nh hn:
t = 0,26 < t(0,05 ; k=48)=2,01.
Kt lun: Sinh trng D gia xut x 8 v 5 cha c sai khc r rt.
t = 2,34 > t(0,05 ; k=48)=2,01.
Kt lun: Sinh trng D gia xut x 8 v 7 c sai khc r rt.
...........................................................................
31
N h vy, xt theo ch tiu ng knh, xut x ti u trong 16 xut x kho nghim l 8 v 5,

hai xut x ny c ch tiu D ln nht, cha c sai d vi nhau v c sai khc r rt vi cc xut
x cn li. l 2 xut x: Doiinthranon v Lang Hanh.
5.2.2. Phn tch phng sai 2 nhn t m ln lp
Trng hp phn tch phng sau 2 nhn t m ln lp: N hn t A c a cng thc v nhn t B
c b cng thc; v ny mi t hp nhn t A v B c lp li m ln mt cch ngu nhin. Lc
ny ngoi vic nh gi nh hng ca tng nhn t A, B ta cn phi tnh nh hng qua li
ca chng n kt qu th nghim.
V d: N ghin cu nh hng ca hai nhn t th nghim l mt v bn phn n nng sut

ca bng.
o N hn t A: Mt chia lm 3 cp.
o N hn t B: Phn bn c chia lm 4 mc
o Mi t hp c th nghim lp li ngu nhin 4 ln.
B tr th nghim 2 nhn t m ln lp
Lp 1
B1
Lp 2
B2
B1
A1
Lp 3
B2
B1
A2
Lp 4
B2
B1
A1
B2
A1
B3
B4
B3
B4
B4
B3
B3
B4
B3
B1
B1
B2
B1
B2
B1
B2
A2
B2
A1
B4
B1 A3 B2
A2
A2
B4
B3
B3
B4
B4
B3
B1 A3
B2
B1
B2
B1
B2
A3
B4
B3
B4
B3
B4
32
A3
B3
B3
B4
Bng s liu sn lng bng theo t hp 2 nhn t v lp li 4 ln mt t hp

(/v: T/ha)
A
A2
A3
B\A
A1
B1
16
17
18
14
15
18
21
17
19
16
19
17
19
19
20
20
18
23
23
18
21
19
20
21
19
21
22
11
21
21
18
12
22
22
21
13
20
23
21
20
20
25
15
24
20
22
16
21
22
21
17
17
19
23
10
14
B2
B3
B4
Phn tch phng sai 2 nhn t m ln lp:

o Tools/Data Analysis/Anova: Two Factor With Replication- OK.
o Hp thoi: Xc nh:
Input range: N hp khi d liu k c hng ct tiu . Vd: A1:D17.
Rows per sample: N hp s ln lp. Vd: 4.
Output range: N hp a ch trn tri ni xut kt qu.
OK.
33
Kt qu phn tch phng sai 2 nhn t m ln lp

Anova: Two-Factor With Replication
SUMMARY
3 Total
12
67
68
72
207
Average
16,75
17
18
17,25
Variance
8,916667
2,666667
0,666667
3,659091
12
81
75
85
241
Average
20,25
18,75
21,25
20,08333
Variance
3,583333
0,916667
1,583333
2,810606
12
82
87
82
251
Average
20,5
21,75
20,5
20,91667
Variance
1,666667
0,916667
1,901515
12
82
81
91
254
1
Count
Sum
2
Count
Sum
3
Count
Sum
4
Count
Sum
34
Average
20,5
20,25
22,75
21,16667
Variance
8,333333
1,583333
2,916667
4,878788
16
16
16
Sum
312
311
330
Average
19,5
19,4375
20,625
Variance
7,2
4,529167
4,783333
Total
Count
AN OVA
Source of Variation
SS
df
MS
P-value
F crit
Sample
116,2292
38,74306
12,65079
8,45E-06
2,866265
Columns
14,29167
7,145833
2,333333
0,111468
3,259444
Interaction
21,20833
3,534722
1,154195
0,352014
2,363748
110,25
36
3,0625
261,9792
47
Within
Total
Bng Summary: Cho kt qu tnh ton tng t hp nhn t A/B v chung cho tng
nhn t B, nhn t A, gm cc ch tiu: Dung lng (Count), Tng (Sum), Trung
bnh (Average), Phng sai (Variance).
Bng AN OVA:
Ct u tin l cc ngun bin ng:
o Sample: Bin ng do nhn t B to nn (do c xp theo hng).
o Columns: Bin ng do nhn t A to nn (do c xp theo ct).
o Interaction: Tc ng qua li.
o Within: Bin ng ngu nhin.
o Total: Bin ng chinh ca n gi tr quan st.
T kt qu ny cho thy:
FB = 12.65 > F0.05 = 2.87. Kl: Phn bn c tc ng r rt n nng sut bng.
FA = 2.33 < F0.05 = 3.26. Kl: Mt nh hng khng r n nng sut bng.
FAB = 1.15 < F0.05 = 3.36. Kl: ng thi thay i mt v phn bn nh hng khng
r n nng sut.
Lc ny ch cn vic la chn cng thc bn phn ti u. Qua s trung bnh nng sut theo
tng cng thc bn phn cho thy cng thc 4 c nng sut cao nht l 21.16 t/ha. C th
dng tiu chuNn t kim tra li xem cng thc 4 c sai khc vi cng thc no cn li la
chn cng thc c hiu qu nht.
Lu trong phn tch phng sai 2 nhn t m ln lp, nu kim tra Interaction (tng tc gia
2 nhn t) c nh hng n ch tiu quan st, th lc ny cn chn t hp cng thc c gi tr
bnh qun tt nht; ng thi c th so snh n vi t hp ng th 2, 3 ... tm t hp cng
thc ti u.
35
6. PHN TCH TNG QUAN - HI QUY

Trong thc t ngi ta cn lp cc m hnh tng quan hi quy v cc mc ch:
o c lng mt nhn t kh o m (gi l bin ph thuc y) thng qua mt hay
nhiu bin d quan st, o m (gi l bin c lp x) v tt nhin l phi c mi lin h
gia y v x. T y c th lp cc biu iu tra phc v cho vic gim nh cc quan st
o m mt s nhn t phc tp
o d bo mt nhn t trong tng lai (gi l bin d bo y) vi mt s bin c lp,
u vo (gi l l bin c lp x)
o nghin cu tc ng, nh hng ca mt hoc nhiu nhn t n mt yu t cn
quan tm nh sinh trng, sn lng, cht lng rng, xi mn t, dng chy lu vc.
Trn c s c gii php k thut thch hp hoc cc bin php thch hp
S dng chng trnh Excel hoc Statgraphics Plus thit lp cc m hnh tng quan/hi
quy tuyn tnh t mt cho n nhiu bin s c lp. Trong chng trnh ny, cc tham s
c c lng bng phng php bnh phng ti thiu. Ring cc dng phi tuyn khi ng
dng chng trnh ny cn i bin s quy v dng tuyn tnh.
6.1. Hi quy tuyn tnh 1 lp

Hi quy tuyn tnh mt lp c ngha l c mt bin s c lp x c nghin cu nh hng
n bin ph thuc y, dng quan h c xc nh l ng thng. C ngha l khi x tng hoc
gim th y cng tng hoc gim u theo dng c thng. Dng phng trnh tng qut: Y =
A + B.X.
Vd: Lp m hnh tng quan gia chiu cao di cnh (Hdc) vi chiu cao c cy (H) rng
Tch dng ng thng: Hdc = A + B.H. V Hdc l ch tiu kh o m hn H, nn dng quan
h ny xc nh Hdc thng qua H.
Nhp s liu theo bng:
Cc cp s liu Hdc - H
1
Hdc(m)
H(m)
22,0
23,0
21,8
23,0
21,5
22,3
.....
.....
.....
40
9,7
10,9
41
9,8
11,1
c lng tng quan hi quy ng thng:

o Tools/Data Analysis/Regression. OK.
o Hp thoi:
Input Y range: N hp a ch ct bin Y (C th nhp c nhn). Vd: A1:A41.
Input X range: N hp a ch ct bin X (C th nhp c nhn). Vd: B1:B41.
Label: nh du nu nhp c hng u lm nhn.
OK.
36
Kt qu c lng hi quy tuyn tnh 1 lp

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0,998189546
R Square
0,99638237
Adjusted R Square
0,996287169
Standard Error
0,318271114
Observations
40
AN OVA
df
SS
Regression
MS
1060,180842
1060,181
Residual
38
3,84926708
0,101297
Total
39
1064,030109
Coefficients
Standard Error
t Stat
F
10466,12
P-value
Significance F
5,24804E-48
Lower 95%
Upper 95%
Intercept
-0,715306008
0,127254043
-5,62109
1,88E-06
-0,972918358
-0,457693658
Hgo(m)
0,994341123
0,009719471
102,304
5,25E-48
0,974665081
1,014017165
37
Phng trnh tng quan:

Hdc = - 0.715 + 0.994.H
Vi N = 40 R = 0.998
Fr = 10466.12
vi <0.0000
T phng trnh hi quy, c th xc nh Hdc gin tip qua H.
6.2. Dng phi tuyn a v tuyn tnh 1 lp

Trong thc t bin y c th khng c dng quan h ng thng vi x, do cn s dng m
hnh phi tuyn. Trng hp cc hm phi tuyn, c lng cn bin i thnh dng tuyn
tnh c lng trong cc phn mm Excel, Statgraphics Plus.
Mt s hm phi tuyn ph bin nh:
y = a.x b tuyn tnh ha: ln(y) = ln(a) + b.ln(x)
y = a.e bx tuyn tnh ha: ln(y) = ln(a) + b.x

6.2.1. Lp m hnh hm m trong Excel:
V d: Lp m hnh tng quan H/D rng trng Tch dng hm m:
H = a.Db
Tuyn tnh ha: Logarit neper 2 v:
Ln(H) = Ln(a) + b.Ln(D)
t
Y = Ln(H)
X = Ln(D)
A = Ln(a)
B = b.
Vy Y = A + B.X
o
o
o
o
Nhp s liu v i bin s:

Ct A: S liu D.
Ct B: S liu H.
Ct C: Ln(D). Ti C2: =Ln(A2), copy cho c ct.
Ct D: Ln(H). Ti D2: =Ln(B2), copy cho c ct.
S liu H/D v i bin s
1
D(cm)
H(m)
Ln(D)
Ln(H)
31,3
22,0
3,443863
3,091042
32,0
21,8
3,466237
3,08191
...
...
....
.....
.....
....
....
....
.....
.....
40
12,6
9,7
2,536373
2,270804
41
13,9
9,8
2,629481
2,277972
c lng tng quan hi quy ng thng trong Excel:

o Tools/Data Analysis/Regression. OK.
o Hp thoi:
Input Y range: N hp a ch ct bin Y (C th nhp c nhn). Vd: D1:D41.
Input X range: N hp a ch ct bin X (C th nhp c nhn). Vd: C1:C41.
Kch OK.
38
Kt qu c lng hi quy tuyn tnh

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Multiple R
0.940546
R Square
Adjusted R
Square
Standard
Error
0.884627
0.881591
0.167161
Observations
40
ANOVA
df
SS
Regression
F
291.366
2.062E-19
P-value
9.88E05
2.06E19
Lower 95%
8.141566
8.14156
Residual
38
1.061823
0.02794
Total
39
9.203388
Coefficients
Standard
Error
t Stat
Intercept
-0.80087
0.18412
-4.34972
ln(D)
1.157937
0.067837
17.0694
39
Significance
F
MS
Upper 95%
-1.173600
-0.428137967
1.020609
1.295265915
Phng trnh tng quan:

Ln(H) = -0.800 + 1.157.Ln(D)
Vi N = 40 R = 0.940
Fr = 291.36 vi <0.0000
a v dng nguyn thy: Tnh a = exp(A) = exp(-0.800) = 0.449
Vy:
H = 0.449.D1.157
T m hnh ny c th c lng H thng qua D m khng phi o m
6.2.2. Lp m hnh hm m v Schumacher trong Statgraphics:
Trong Statgraphics Plus, vic tnh ton m hnh n gin hn v khng cn to thm cc ct
i bin s, bin s c i trc tip trong hp thoi khi thit lp m hnh.
i)
Lp m hnh hm m trong Statgraphics
Trong Statgraphics, vic c lng m hnh phi tuyn tnh n gin hn v khng cn to
thm cc ct i bin s, bin s c i trc tip trong hp thoi khi thit lp m hnh.
u tin nhp d liu trong Excel vi hai ct x v y, v d l D v H nh sau
File d liu Excel cn c lu vi version ca Microsoft Excel 97-2003 v trc, v

Statgraphics cha nhn c kiu file MS. Office 2007
Sau m file d liu ny trong Statgraphics Centurion: File/Open/Open Data
Source/External Data file - OK
40
M file d liu Excel trong Statgrphics Centurion
Chy phn x l hm tng quan mt lp: Improve/Regression Analysis/One

Factor/Simple Regression
41
Chn chng trnh chy tuyn tnh mt lp trong Statgraphics Centurion
Trong hp thoi chn bin y v x v i bin s ngay trong hp thoi: log(H) v log(D).
Kch OK c kt qu. (Lu k hiu log trong Statgraphics l logarit neper)
42
Kt qu chy hm m i v tuyn tnh trong Statgrphics
Simple Regression - log(H) vs. log(D)

Dependent variable: log(H)
Independent variable: log(D)
Linear model: Y = a + b*X
Coefficients
Parameter
Intercept
Slope
Least Squares
Estimate
-0.800869
1.15794
Standard
Error
0.18412
0.0678368
Analysis of Variance
Source
Sum of Squares
Df
Model
Residual
Total (Corr.)
1
38
39
8.14157
1.06182
9.20339
T
Statistic
-4.34972
17.0695
Mean
Square
8.14157
0.0279427
P-Value
0.0001
0.0000
F-Ratio
P-Value
291.37
0.0000
Correlation Coefficient = 0.940546

R-squared = 88.4627 percent
R-squared (adjusted for d.f.) = 88.1591 percent
Standard Error of Est. = 0.167161
Mean absolute error = 0.1213
Durbin-Watson statistic = 0.898852 (P=0.0000)
Lag 1 residual autocorrelation = 0.545672
The StatAdvisor
The output shows the results of fitting a linear model to describe the relationship between log(H) and log(D). The
equation of the fitted model is
log(H) = -0.800869 + 1.15794*log(D)
Since the P-value in the AN OVA table is less than 0.05, there is a statistically significant relationship between log(H) and
log(D) at the 95.0% confidence level.
The R-Squared statistic indicates that the model as fitted explains 88.4627% of the variability in log(H). The correlation
coefficient equals 0.940546, indicating a relatively strong relationship between the variables. The standard error of the
43
estimate shows the standard deviation of the residuals to be 0.167161. This value can be used to construct prediction
limits for new observations by selecting the Forecasts option from the text menu.
The mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.1213 is the average value of the residuals. The Durbin-Watson (DW) statistic tests
the residuals to determine if there is any significant correlation based on the order in which they occur in your data file.
Since the P-value is less than 0.05, there is an indication of possible serial correlation at the 95.0% confidence level. Plot
the residuals versus row order to see if there is any pattern that can be seen.
Plot of Fitted Model

log(H) = -0.800869 + 1.15794*log(D)
3.2
log(H)
2.8
2.4
2
1.6
1.2
1.9
2.3
2.7
log(D)
3.1
3.5
Kt qu cho ra hm trc tip vit di dng tuyn tnh i bin s

Cc kt qu kim tra h s tng quan R v cc bin s c hiu ging nh trong Excel
ii)
Lp m hnh hm Schumacher trong Statgraphics
Trong lm nghip hm Schumacher c s dng ph bin m phng qu trnh sinh trng
cy rng v lm phn. Dng hm Schumacher:
y = a.e b. x
, trong a, b v m l tham s; y l gi tr sinh trng D, H, V, G, M v x

l tui (T). Khi c lng hm ny, tham s m thng chy t 0.1; 0.2; ..... 1.9; 2.0. T
chn hm ti u vi m cho h sso tng quan R cao nht.
c lng hm ny, tuyn tnh ha: ln(y) = ln(a) b.x-m.
V d s dng Statgraphics c lng sinh trng V theo tui (T) ca loi bng lng theo
hm Schumacher.
44
Nhp d liu V/T trong Excel
i bin s vi m chy trong Statgrahics

Improve/Regression Analysis/One Factor/Simple Regression
45
Kt qu c lng hm Schumacher
Simple Regression - log(V) vs. T^-0.5
Dependent variable: log(V)
Independent variable: T^-0.5
Linear model: Y = a + b*X
Coefficients
Parameter
Intercept
Slope
Least Squares
Estimate
2.12522
-17.117
Standard
Error
0.111291
0.650282
Source
Sum of Squares
Model
11.9519
Residual
0.137999
Total (Corr.)
12.0899
Df
1
8
9
T
Statistic
19.0961
-26.3224
Mean Square
11.9519
0.0172499
P-Value
0.0000
0.0000
F-Ratio
692.87
P-Value
0.0000
Correlation Coefficient = -0.994276

The StatAdvisor
The output shows the results of fitting a linear model to describe the relationship between log(V) and T^-0.5. The equation of
the fitted model is
log(V) = 2.12522 - 17.117*T^-0.5
Since the P-value in the AN OVA table is less than 0.05, there is a statistically significant relationship between log(V) and T^0.5 at the 95.0% confidence level.
The R-Squared statistic indicates that the model as fitted explains 98.8586% of the variability in log(V). The correlation
coefficient equals -0.994276, indicating a relatively strong relationship between the variables. The standard error of the
estimate shows the standard deviation of the residuals to be 0.131339. This value can be used to construct prediction limits for
new observations by selecting the Forecasts option from the text menu.
The mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.0958475 is the average value of the residuals. The Durbin-Watson (DW) statistic tests
the residuals to determine if there is any significant correlation based on the order in which they occur in your data file. Since
the P-value is less than 0.05, there is an indication of possible serial correlation at the 95.0% confidence level. Plot the
residuals versus row order to see if there is any pattern that can be seen.
log(V) = 2.12522 - 17.117*T^-0.5

Vi R = -0.994 v P < 0.000
T y suy ra hm nguyn thy: a = exp(2.12522) = 8.374; b = 17.117
V = 8.374.exp( - 17.117. T -0.5)
Kt qu trn l vi m = 0.5; ln lt thay m khc nhau tm hm ti u vi R max.
6.3. Hi quy tuyn tnh nhiu lp

Trong thc t bin ph thuc Y b chi phi bi nhiu bin s c lp Xi. V d nh tr lng
rng c ng gp bi nhiu nhn t nh mt , tit din ngang, chiu cao, cp t; hoc
bin i dng chy, mc xung yu ca lu vc b chi phi bi nhiu nhn t nh lng
ma, dc, a hnh, loi t, che ph thm thc vt; hoc ti sinh t nhin ph thuc vo
nhiu nhn t nh nh sng, ht ging, la rng, t, thc b, ..... Tuy nhin bin no l ch
o th chng ta cha bit, do vy vi phng php m hnh ha vi nhiu th nghim khc
46
nhau gip chng ta d bo c nhn t nh hng quan trng, trn c s s iu tit cc

nhn t ny p ng c mc tiu mong i
Trong trng hp ny c lng bin ph thuc Y ngi ta cn lp m hnh hi quy nhiu
bin s c th phn nh chnh xc gi tr c lng, d bo Y.
Dng phng trnh tng qut:
Y = ao + b1X1 + b2X2 +....+ bnXn
V d: Thit lp m hnh d on tr lng rng (M) Tch theo 2 bin s mt (N ) v chiu
cao bnh qun (H) theo dng hm m:
M = a + b1 N + b2 H
y l dng tuyn tnh 2 lp Y = a + b1X1 + b2X2
Dng phng php bnh phng ti thiu c lng phng trnh
Nhp s liu
Bng s liu M/N/H
1
N(c/ha)
H(m)
M(m3/ha)
180
23,0
163,452
170
23,0
160,154
220
22,3
184,167
...
....
....
......
...
....
....
......
40
570
10,9
43,846
41
570
11,1
53,212
c lng tng quan tuyn tnh nhiu lp:

o Tools/Data Analysis/Regression.OK.
o Hp thoi:
Input Y range: N hp a ch ct bin Y (C th nhp c nhn). Vd: C1:C41.
Input X range: N hp a ch khi cc bin X (C th nhp c nhn). Vd:
A1:B41.
OK.
47
Kt qu c lng m hnh hi quy tuyn tnh 2 lp

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Multiple R
R Square
0.9256776
0.856879
Adjusted R Square
0.8491427
Standard Error
28.140919
Observations
40
AN OVA
df
Regression
SS
MS
175426.2
87713.1
Residual
37
29300.72
791.9113
Total
39
204726.9
Coefficients
Standard
Error
Significance F
110.7613
2.40166E-16
t Stat
P-value
Lower 95%
Upper 95%
Intercept
-154.77144
22.13662
-6.99165
2.91E-08
-199.6244851
-109.918392
N (c/ha)
0.1095484
0.016994
6.446152
1.57E-07
0.075114494
0.143982284
14.52156
0.97677
14.86692
3.49E-17
12.54243676
16.50068344
H (m)
48
Phng trnh tng quan hi quy:

M = - 154.771 + 0.109 N + 14.521 H
Vi N = 40 R = 0.926
Fr = 110.76 vi <0.00
tb2 = 14.86
vi <0.00
tb1 = 6.44
T m hnh ny c th c lng, d bo tr lng rng thng qua 2 bin s mt (N /ha) v
chiu cao bnh qun (H).
6.4. Hi quy phi tuyn tnh nhiu lp, t hp bin

Trong trng hp nhiu bin s xi nh hng n y khng theo dng tuyn tnh m c dng
quan h phi tuyn, trng hp ny cn i bin s tr v dng tuyn tnh, hoc lp m hnh
t hp bin.
Mt s dng phi tuyn nhiu lp ph bin v cch quy v tuyn tnh hoc t hp bin:
y = a.x1b1 x 2 b 2....xn bn tuyn tnh ha: ln(y) = ln(a) + b1.ln(x1) + b2ln(x2) + ... + bnln(xn)
y = a.e b1x1+b 2 x 2+...+bnxn tuyn tnh ha: ln(y) = ln(a) + b1x1 + b2x2 + ...+ bnxn
..................................
6.4.1. Lp m hnh phi tuyn nhiu lp chuyn v tuyn tnh nhiu lp trong Excel
Hm phi tuyn nhiu lp trong Excel c c lng bng cch tuyn tnh ha, c ngha l cn
to thm cc trng/ct bin s mi.
V d lp quan h gia M = f(N . H) dng hm m: M = a.N b1Hb2.
Tuyn tnh ha bng cch ly log 2 v: ln(M) = ln(a) + b1ln(N ) +b2ln(H)
N h vy phi to thm 3 ct log i bin s
Bng d liu i bin s lp m hnh phi tuyn nhiu lp
N (c/ha)
H (m)
M (m3/ha)
Ln(M)
Ln(N)
Ln(H)
180
170
220
210
650
620
690
650
650
630
660
690
980
980
970
960
960
1000
960
970
950
23.0
23.0
22.3
22.1
6.9
7.0
6.7
6.4
6.8
6.8
7.9
8.0
7.5
7.5
12.3
12.3
4.3
4.2
9.0
8.9
12.5
163.452
160.154
184.167
145.436
24.177
23.400
22.027
19.696
20.778
22.634
69.476
69.463
35.867
36.937
130.740
125.725
11.327
12.320
57.145
58.715
127.868
5.096519
5.076136
5.215843
4.979736
3.185402
3.152736
3.092269
2.980416
3.033895
3.119453
4.240981
4.240794
3.579818
3.609214
4.873211
4.834097
2.427189
2.511224
4.045592
4.072695
4.850998
5.192957
5.135798
5.393628
5.347108
6.476972
6.429719
6.536692
6.476972
6.476972
6.445720
6.492240
6.536692
6.887553
6.887553
6.877296
6.866933
6.866933
6.907755
6.866933
6.877296
6.856462
3.135494
3.135494
3.104587
3.095578
1.931521
1.945910
1.902108
1.856298
1.916923
1.916923
2.066863
2.079442
2.014903
2.014903
2.509599
2.509599
1.458615
1.435085
2.197225
2.186051
2.525729
49
N (c/ha)
H (m)
M (m3/ha)
Ln(M)
Ln(N)
Ln(H)
970
1090
1140
890
960
1050
1020
1110
1060
940
730
1440
1240
740
710
360
390
570
570
12.5
7.1
7.2
12.8
13.0
16.3
15.8
16.8
17.0
16.6
16.0
10.5
10.1
12.8
13.3
17.9
17.7
10.9
11.1
127.934
39.355
41.830
158.216
178.428
227.649
231.610
233.835
203.820
186.508
145.706
139.988
123.668
111.255
82.429
227.702
191.751
43.846
53.212
4.851515
3.672623
3.733614
5.063961
5.184185
5.427805
5.445055
5.454616
5.317237
5.228474
4.981591
4.941557
4.817601
4.711825
4.411937
5.428038
5.256198
3.780683
3.974284
6.877296
6.993933
7.038784
6.791221
6.866933
6.956545
6.927558
7.012115
6.966024
6.845880
6.593045
7.272398
7.122867
6.606650
6.565265
5.886104
5.966147
6.345636
6.345636
2.525729
1.960095
1.974081
2.549445
2.564949
2.791165
2.760010
2.821379
2.833213
2.809403
2.772589
2.351375
2.312535
2.549445
2.587764
2.884801
2.873565
2.388763
2.406945
T y chy phn Regression trong Excel thit lp m hnh nh l m hnh tuyn tnh nhiu
lp trnh by mc trn.
50
Kt qu c lng m hnh phi tuyn i v tuyn tnh 2 lp

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Multiple R
0.967567
R Square
0.936185
Adjusted R Square
0.932736
Standard Error
0.235045
Observations
40
ANOVA
df
Regression
SS
MS
F
271.4024864
Significance F
29.98797
14.99398
Residual
37
2.044113
0.055246
Total
39
32.03208
Coefficients
Standard Error
-5.143280
0.681084
-7.551614
0.000000
-6.523287
-3.763274
Ln(N)
0.641785
0.081858
7.840245
0.000000
0.475926
0.807645
Ln(H)
2.205407
0.095991
22.975155
0.000000
2.010911
2.399903
Intercept
t Stat
P-value
7.78065E-23
Lower 95%
Upper 95%
M hnh c dng: ln(M) = -5.143 + 0.642ln(N ) + 2.205ln(H)

Vi N = 40 R = 0.968
Fr = 271.40 vi <0.00
tb2 = 22.98
vi <0.00
tb1 = 7.84
T m hnh ny c th d bo M thng qua N v H
6.4.2. Lp m hnh phi tuyn nhiu lp chuyn v tuyn tnh trong Statgraphics
Trong Statgraphics, vic tnh ton m hnh phi tuyn nhiu lp n gin hn v khng cn to
thm cc ct i bin s, bin s c i trc tip trong hp thoi khi thit lp m hnh.
u tin nhp d liu trong Excel vi bin y v cc bin xi, mi bin mt ct d liu
51
Sau m file d liu ny trong Statgraphics Plus, vo chng trnh chy hm nhiu lp
i bin s ngay trong hp thoi
Kt qu chy hm phi tuyn nhiu lp quy v tuyn tnh

Multiple Regression - log(M)
Dependent variable: log(M)
Independent variables:
log(H)
log(N )
Parameter
CON STAN T
log(H)
log(N )
Estimate
-5.14328
2.20541
0.641785
Standard
Error
0.681084
0.095991
0.0818578
Source
Sum of Squares
Model
29.988
Residual
2.04411
Total (Corr.)
32.0321
Df
2
37
39
T
Statistic
-7.55161
22.9752
7.84025
Mean Square
14.994
0.0552463
P-Value
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
F-Ratio
271.40

52
P-Value
0.0000
The StatAdvisor
The output shows the results of fitting a multiple linear regression model to describe the relationship between log(M) and 2
independent variables. The equation of the fitted model is
log(M) = -5.14328 + 2.20541*log(H) + 0.641785*log(N)
Since the P-value in the AN OVA table is less than 0.05, there is a statistically significant relationship between the variables at
the 95.0% confidence level.
The R-Squared statistic indicates that the model as fitted explains 93.6185% of the variability in log(M). The adjusted Rsquared statistic, which is more suitable for comparing models with different numbers of independent variables, is 93.2736%.
The standard error of the estimate shows the standard deviation of the residuals to be 0.235045. This value can be used to
construct prediction limits for new observations by selecting the Reports option from the text menu. The mean absolute error
(MAE) of 0.16285 is the average value of the residuals. The Durbin-Watson (DW) statistic tests the residuals to determine if
there is any significant correlation based on the order in which they occur in your data file. Since the P-value is less than 0.05,
there is an indication of possible serial correlation at the 95.0% confidence level. Plot the residuals versus row order to see if
there is any pattern that can be seen.
In determining whether the model can be simplified, notice that the highest P-value on the independent variables is 0.0000,
belonging to log(N ). Since the P-value is less than 0.05, that term is statistically significant at the 95.0% confidence level.
Consequently, you probably don't want to remove any variables from the model.
Plot of log(M)
6.4
observed
5.4
4.4
3.4
2.4
2.4
3.4
4.4
predicted
5.4
6.4
Trong Statgrahics Plus cn cho php to t hp bin ngay trong hp thoi, v d c th lp hm

dng: ln(M) = a + b1.N*H, trong N .ln(H) l t hp bin. Trong hp thoi to t hp bin
nh sau
53
Kt qu c hm theo quan h nhiu bin di dng t hp bin

Multiple Regression - log(M)
Dependent variable: log(M)
N *H
Parameter
CON STAN T
N *H
Estimate
3.17609
0.000133068
Source
Sum of Squares
Model
13.5104
Residual
18.5217
Total (Corr.)
32.0321
Standard
Error
0.248379
0.0000252748
Df
1
38
39
T
Statistic
12.7873
5.26485
Mean Square
13.5104
0.487412
P-Value
0.0000
0.0000
F-Ratio
27.72
P-Value
0.0000

The StatAdvisor
The output shows the results of fitting a multiple linear regression model to describe the relationship between log(M) and 1
log(M) = 3.17609 + 0.000133068*N*H
The R-Squared statistic indicates that the model as fitted explains 42.1778% of the variability in log(M). The adjusted Rsquared statistic, which is more suitable for comparing models with different numbers of independent variables, is 40.6561%.
54
belonging to N *H. Since the P-value is less than 0.05, that term is statistically significant at the 95.0% confidence level.
Consequently, you probably don't want to remove any variables from the model.
7. C LNG CC DNG HI QUY MT BIN TRN

THN
Trong thc t trc quan cc mi quan h, ngi ta thng dng th biu din, v d
dng trong vic xem xt cc d bo, Excel h tr chng trnh xc nh m hnh hi quy mt
bin ngay trn th. Excel lp sn 5 dng hm ph bin trong phn ny.
V d: Lp m hnh hi quy H/D cho rng trng Tch ngay trn th quan h
Nhp s liu:
S liu v quan h H/D
1
D(cm)
H(m)
6,7
3,5
6,8
3,6
9,5
5,7
9,5
6,1
...
...
...
40
31,3
22,0
41
32,0
21,8
V th: Tin hnh cc bc v th quan h H/D. (N n v dng m my

im).
Tnh ton m hnh quan h da vo th:
o Kch hot th: Kch chut tri.
o Chn m my im trn th: Kch chut phi vo m my m ny.
o Chn Add Trendline
55
Chn mc Type: y chn dng lin h thch hp, c cc dng sau:
Linear:
y = mx + b
Logarithmic: y = clnx + b
Polynomial: y = b + c1x + c2x2 + .....c6x6
C th chn 1 n 6 bc trong Order: Xc nh s bc.
Power:
y = cxb
Exponential: y = c.ebx
56
Chn mc Option: Xc nh:

Forecast: Foward: Xc nh di d on tip theo.
Backward: Xc nh di d on li.
Set intercept (0): N u nh du th tham s b=0 trong cc hm ng thng
Display Equation on Chart: nh du a hm ln th.
Display R-squared Value on Chart: nh du nu mun tnh h s tng quan
bnh phng.
Cui cng l OK.
Kt qu nh sau:
Quan he H/D rung tech

25.0
H (m)
20.0
15.0
y = 12.386Ln(x) - 22.023
R2 = 0.8781
10.0
5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
D (cm)
57
30.0
35.0
40.0
V d khc: D bo t l che ph ca rng trong thi gian n
V d khc: Lng carbon c lu tr trong cc kiu rng khc nhau c m phng bng
dng hm phi tuyn trn th. Trong khng cn m ha bin s x (kiu rng), lc ny s
dng s ct v v chy phng trnh thch hp. Lc ny my tnh t ng m ha cc
kiu rng l 1, 2, 3, 4 .....
Lng carbon trn v di mt t cc kiu s dng t
rng
Cc vng rng Brazil, Cameroon v Indonesia

Cc kiu rng
Lng carbon
(tn/ha)
Rng nguyn sinh

Rng khai thc chn
Rng b ho sau nng ry
t N ng Lm kt hp
Cy trng ngn ngy
ng c chn th gia sc
Di
mt Trong thc
t
vt
48
310
48
230
48
75
45
50
25
5
20
2
58
Lng C trong cc kiu rng
Carbon trong thc vt (tn/ha)
350
300
250
Rng nguyn
sinh
y = -188.62Ln(x) + 318.83
2
R = 0.9538
Rng khai
thc chn
200
150
100
50
Rng b ho sau
nng ry t Nng Lm
kt hp
Cy trng ngn
ng c chn th
ngy
gia sc
0
-50
Cc kiu s dng rng
8. SP XP V V BIU PHN B TN S XUT HIN

THEO CP, C, HNG
y l chc nng sp xp bng phn b tn s theo mt nhn t theo tng cp, hng, ... v v
th phn b.
Trong nghin cu x hi, ngi ta cn nghin cu tn s phn b s ngi theo cp tui bit
s phn b con ngi theo cc th h c chin lc qun l ngun nhn lc.
Trong qun l ti nguyn thin nhin, thng cn nghin cu s phn b c th loi theo cp
tui, cp kch thc bit c quy lut bin i c th theo th h, theo kch thc, cht
lng, ... l c s qun l, bo tn v nh hng khai thc s dng bn vng.
Trong lm nghip thng cn sp xp phn b s cy theo c knh (N /D), s cy theo c chiu
cao (N /H), s cy theo cp th tch (N /V), s cy theo loi cy theo cc tng rng, th h.
V d cng t s liu quan st rng trng Tch 10 tui, tin hnh sp xp phn b thc nghim
N /H v v biu (cp H l 2m):
N p s liu vo bng tnh theo ct. Vd: A9:A52.
Lp mt ct gii hn trn c knh. Vd: c 2m.
59
Bng tm tt d liu
Menu Tools/Data Analysis/Histogram/OK. Xut hin hp thoi, xc nh:

+ Input range: Khai bo khi d liu
+ Bin range: Khai bo khi cha c ly t (vi gi tr ln nht ca mi t)
+ Output range: Khai a ch trn tri ni a ra kt qu.
+ Cumulative percentage: Tnh phn trm tn s tch ly.(nh du).
+ Chart output: V biu . (nh du chn).
+ OK.
60
Kt qu sp xp tn s cho c mt dy d liu theo cp v biu phn b. N phn nh c

th hn c trng mu v cho thy hnh nh ca kiu dng phn b theo cp, th h; t gip
cho vic phn tch qun th v a ra quyt nh qun l, s dng bn vng. V d trong biu
trn, s cy phn ha kh mnh theo cp chiu cao, mt s cy sinh trng km cp chiu
cao nh 8 12m, mt s cy vt tn c cp H trn 22m; gii php ngh y l ta tha
loi b bt cy sinh trng km c H < 12m v c th ta tha mt s cy ln vi H>22m
li dng trung gian, lc ny c th s c kch thc tp trung trong phm vi 14 22m v c
khng gian dinh dng pht trin.
Cng c sp xp tn s, tn sut phn b l mt cng c mnh v hu ch trong lm nghip, v
thng thng t s liu o m, iu tra, cn phi sp xp theo t, nhm, cp. V d sp xp
N /D, N /H, s cy theo cp tui rng trng, .....
9. KIM TRA THUN NHT K MU QUAN ST T

QUNG - NG DNG: KIM TRA S THUN NHT CA
CC DY PHN B N/D, N/H CC TIU CHUN
Trong thc t, iu tra nh gi, nghin cu mt i tng rng, mt trng thi; chng ta
thng rt mu theo tiu chuNn, sau gp chung tnh ton. Tuy nhin c kh nng mt
s mu khng nm trong mt trng thi , do nu gp chung tnh ton trung bnh, m
phng cu trc chung s gp sai s rt ln v khng phn nh ng i tng, trng thi nghin
cu. Do vy cn c s kim tra s thun nht ca cc s liu ny cc mu trc khi gp
chung tnh ton nh mt tng th.
Trong trng hp ny cn ng dng tiu chuNn thng k 2 kim tra K mu quan st t
qung, c th l ng dng kim tra cc dy phn b N /D cc mu nh gi chng c
cng mt tng th, mt trng thi hay khng.
Trong :
Dy phn b N ca cc c sp xp ln lt i = 1,2, .... k (k )
v c phn b theo cc c knh c sp xp theo th t j = 1, 2, .... m (m c knh)
61
Phn b N ca cc i mu theo cc c knh j

Tn s fij (i=1 .... k) (N/ha)
C D1.3 (j= 1 ...
m)
8
12
16
20
24
28
32
36
40
44
48
52
56
Tng
ni
1
12
134
97
56
45
33
21
15
11
9
6
3
1
443
n1
3
11
125
80
56
34
31
21
11
11
7
6
3
1
397
n2
4=k
9
150
97
41
31
25
21
15
11
15
4
3
1
423
ni
8
145
88
54
31
31
21
15
9
5
6
1
1
415
nk
Tng
40
554
362
207
141
120
84
56
42
36
22
10
4
1678
n
fj
f1
f2
fj
fm
Gi fij l tn s (s cy) theo i v cp knh j; fi l tng tn s ca i v fj l tng tn s cp

knh j.
Gi thuyt Ho: F1 = F2 = ... = Fk (Cho mi i v j). Hay ni khc l cc dy phn b N /D l
thun nht cc mu khc nhau, hay cung trng thi rng; ngc li chng cc trng thi
khc nhau v khng thun nht.
Kim tra s thun nht bng tiu chuNn 2 nh sau:
k
m
2
( fij fj.ni / n) 2
=
fj.ni / n
i =1 j =1
So snh vi 2 (0.05; df = (m-1)(k-1). N u 2t < 2 (0.05; df = (m-1)(k-1) > Chp nhn gii thuyt Ho, c
ngha l cc mu thu thp nm trong cng mt trng thi, h thng v c th gp chung
c lng c trng mu, m phng phn b N /N chung ......
Trong v d trn 2t = 20.42 < 2 (0.05; df=36) = 51.00. Do c th xem cc dy N /D ca 4
mu l thun nht hoc nm trong cng mt trng thi, c th gp m phng N /D chung.
10. M HNH HO QUY LUT PHN B

Trong nghin cu cc lm phn, ngi ta thng khi qut quy lut phn b s cy theo c
knh, chiu cao lm c s cho vic iu tra rng v xc nh cc gii php lm sinh thch
hp dn dt rng. Hoc nghin cu phn b s c th theo tui, th h; phn b s loi theo
tng th, phn b vi sinh vt t theo cc lp t, .... hiu r quy lut sinh hc, sinh thi hc
lm c s qun l ti nguyn thin nhin bn vng.
62
10.1. M hnh ho phn b gim theo hm Mayer

Hm Mayer c dng: y = .e-.x. Kiu dng ny thch hp cho m t m phng phn b s cy
theo c knh (N /D) rng cht chn c dng gim, hoc m phng s gim ca s loi theo
tng, theo c knh, .,,,,,
Trong Excel c chng trnh lp sn tnh quan h tuyn tnh, v vy xc nh cc tham s
cn tuyn tnh ha.
V d m phng phn b N /D theo dng Mayer: N = .e-.D
Tuyn tnh ho:
Ln(N ) = Ln - D.
t
Y = Ln(N ) ; A = Ln() ; B = -; X = D
C hm tuyn tnh: Y = A + BX
Trnh t tnh ton trong Excel:
Nhp s liu:
o Ct A l gi tr gia c knh (D).
o Ct B l tn s thc nghim (N ).
o Ct C: Ln(N ). u tin tnh cho u tin (C2): =Ln(b2), sau copy
xung cho cc cn li.
Bng d liu i bin s c lng hm Mayer
1
C D1,3 (cm)
N (c/ha)
Ln(N)
15
125
4,828314
25
89
4,488636
35
56
4,025352
45
31
3,433987
55
19
2,944439
65
2,079442
75
10
2,302585
85
1,609438
10
95
1,098612
11
105
0,693147
12
115
c lng hm tuyn tnh 1 lp: Menu Tools/Analysis/Regression/OK- Hp

thoi:
o Input X Range: Khai khi d kiu X. (A2:A12)
o Input Y range: Khai khi d liu Y. (C2:C12)
o Output range: N hp a ch trn ra ni ra kt qu (E1).
o OK.
63
Kt qu c lng hm tuyn tnh

E
SS
MS
SUMMARY
OUTPUT
Multiple R
0,993975878
R Square
0,987988046
Adjusted R Square
0,986653385
Standard Error
0,183611852
Observations
11
AN OVA
df
Regression
24,95640165
24,95640165
Residual
0,303419808
0,033713312
10
25,25982146
Total
Coefficients
Intercept
X Variable 1
Standard Error
t Stat
5,596409498
0,126545736
44,2244021
-0,047631542
0,00175067
-27,20760245
a= 5,596
Alpha=
b=-0,048
Beta=
F
740,2536312
P-value
7,72246E-12
Significance F
5,9318E-10
Lower 95%
Upper 95%
5,310142937
5,882676058
5,9318E-10 -0,051591836 -0,043671248
269,457
0,048
o Quy v tham s nguyn thu ca Mayer:

Tham s = ea = e5.596 = 269.457; = -(-0.048) = 0.048.
o Kt qu phng trnh: N = 269.457.exp(-0.048.D).
o Kim tra s ph hp ca phng trnh bng tiu chuNn 2:
Cng thc tnh 2 = (N lt N t)2/N lt
+ Ct E: Gi tr 2: Ti E2: =(D2-B2)^2/D2. Copy cho cc di. Ch cc
c N lt <5 cn gp li. Tng ct E c 2 = 4.00.
+ Tra 2 bng vi =0.05 v K= l-r-1= 9-2-1=6: =Chiinv(0.05;6)=12,59
+ 2 tnh < 2 bng. Kl: Hm Mayer m phng tt cu trc N -D thc nghim.
64
Kt qu kim tra s ph hp ca hm Mayer bng tiu chun 2

B
1 C D1,3 (cm)
N (c/ha)
Ln(N)
Nlt (c/ha)
X2
15
125
4,828314
131
0,29
25
89
4,488636
81
0,76
35
56
4,025352
50
0,67
45
31
3,433987
31
0,00
55
19
2,944439
19
0,00
65
2,079442
12
1,28
75
10
2,302585
0,94
85
1,609438
0,06
10
95
1,098612
0.00
11
105
0,693147
12
115
13 Tng
349
342
4,00
Phn b Mayer cn c th s dng xem xt phn b s lng c th ca mt loi theo cc

giai on tui. Kiu dng cu trc s cy theo tui (N /A) rng nhit i nhn chung c dng
gim, tui cng cao th s c th cng t, bo m cho s k tc cc th h cy rng v n nh
qun th thc vt rng theo thi gian. Vi c trng cu trc dng gim theo th h, tui nh
vy nn phng thc khai thc chnh ca rng t nhin l cht chn theo cp knh. Khai thc
lp cy thnh thc v nui dng rng trong mt lun k rng phc hi trng thi ban u
v tip tc khai thc ln 2. Vic xc nh c cu trc N /A ca lm phn v N /A theo tng
loi/nhm loi chnh s rt thun tin cho vic xc nh k thut lm sinh nh tui, ng knh
khai thc, lun k,.... Tuy nhin trong thc t vic xc nh A l rt kh khn, do thng
thng c thay bng ng knh, v kiu cu trc ph bin c nghin cu l s cy theo
c knh N /D phc v cho iu tra, xc nh ch tiu k thut nui dng, khai thc rng. M
hnh ho cu trc N /A thng c biu din tt bng hm Mayer vi h s tng quan R2 rt
cao.
65
90
80
N = 102.71e-0.2862A
R2 = 0.9843
70
N/ha
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
5
15
25
35
45
55
65
75
85
95
105 115 125 135 145 155
Cp A (nm)
V d m hnh cu trc N/A rng hn loi khc tui theo hm Mayer
Rng ma nhit i c khu h thc vt a dng vi thnh loi phong ph, phn b nhiu th
h, cp tui khc nhau. Trn 01 ha rng c th pht hin trn 60 loi cy thn g, ngoi ra rng
ma rt phong ph cc loi dy leo, song my, ru, dng x, phong lan. Cc loi cy ni
chung l a sng, c gng vn ln cnh tranh nh sng, tuy vy cng c loi chu c tng
di v hnh thnh s phn b loi theo tng, theo cp tui, cp knh kh r rt. Trong thc t
vic xc nh tui cy rng l kh khn, do thng nghin cu cu trc s loi theo cp
knh (N loi/D)
25
-0.3491x
y = 30.511e
2
R = 0.987
N loi /ha
20
15
N loi/ha
Expon. (N loi/ha)
10
5
0
15
25
35
45
55
65
75
85
95 105
Cp knh D1.3 (cm)
Cu trc s loi theo cp knh rng na rng l u hp bng lng cm xe Dk Lk
Cu trc N loi/D ca kiu rng na rng u hp bng lng cm xe Dk Lak c kiu dng
phn b l dng gim lin tc, c ngha khi ln tng cao, cp knh ln, s loi chim t l thp,
y l cc loi u th sinh thi. Vi kiu rng ny, s loi trn ha l 70 loi thn g, v vi c
knh thnh thc t 55cm tr ln th s loi cn khong 5 loi. Kiu dng cu trc ny cng c
th m phng tt bng dng hm Mayer.
M hnh Mayer ngoi vic i bin s v tnh ton, trong Excel co th c lng nhanh ngay
trn th
66
Mo hinh quan he N/D theo

Mayer
y = 269.46e-0.048x
140
R = 0.988
120
100
80
N (c/ha)
60
Expon. (N (c/ha))
40
20
0
0
50
100
150
10.2. M phng phn b thc nghim theo phn b khong cchhnh hc:
i) Dng phn b khong cch:
P(x) =
(1-).(1-).x-1
x=0
x>=1
Vi x l m s cc c knh t nh n ln 0,1,2,3....
Khi: < (1-)(1-) Phn b c nh ti x=1.
=1-
Phn b gim c th thay th bng phn b hnh hc.
> (1-)(1-) Phn b gim.
c lng 2 tham s bng phng php cc i hp l:
= N0/N
r
= 1
Ni
i =1
Ni. xi
i =1
Trnh t tnh trong Excel: Vd: M phng phn b N/D c dng 1 nh:
Ct A: M s x
Ct B: Gi tr gia c D.
Ct C: S cy theo c knh. Tng ti C13=sum(c2:c12)
Ct D: N i.xi. Ti D2:=A2*C2; copy cho cc di. Tng ti D13
Tnh 2 tham s:
= C2/Sum(c2:c12)
= 1- Sum(c3:c12)/sum(d2:d12)
Ct E:Xc sut tng c knh P(xi): E2: Pxo=; E3: Px1 = (1-)(1-)^(a3-1);
copy cho cc di.
Ct F: Tn s l thuyt: N lti: F2: =$C$13*E2; copy cho cc di
67
Ct G: Tnh 2 tng c v tng. G2: = (f2-c2)^2/f2, copy cho cc di, cng

tng.
G14: Tra 2 bng (=0,05 ; K = 8-2-1=5): =Chiinv(0.05,5)
Kt qu 2 tnh < 2 bng . Kl: Phn b Khong cch m phng tt phn b thc nghim N /D.
Kt qu m phng phn b N/D theo phn b khong cch
A
C D1,3 (cm)
N (c/ha)
Nixi
Px
Nlt (c/ha)
X2
15
70
0,212121
70
0,00
25
125
125
0,345444
114
1,06
35
56
112
0,193985
64
1,00
45
31
93
0,108932
36
0,68
55
19
76
0,061171
20
0,07
65
40
0,034351
11
0,98
75
10
60
0,01929
2,08
85
35
0,010832
1,82
10
95
24
0,006083
11
105
18
0,003416
12
10
115
10
0,001918
13
Tng
330
593
0,997543
329
14
Gamma=
0,212121
X2 bng=
15
Alpha=
0,561551
K=8-2-1=5
7,70
11,07
ii) Phn b hnh hc:

x=0,1,2,3...r
P(x) = x. (1-)
c lng bng phng php cc i hp l:
x
=
x+1
1 r
x=
Ni. xi
N i =1
Phn b hnh hc dng m t cc phn b thc nghim dng gim
Trnh t tnh trong Excel: Vd: M phng phn b N/D c dng gim:
Ct A: M s x
Ct B: Gi tr gia c D.
Ct C: S cy theo c knh. Tng ti C13=sum(c2:c12)
Ct D: N i.xi. Ti D2:=A2*C2; copy cho cc di. Tng ti D13
Tnh tham s :
x = D13/c13
= x/(x+1)
Ct E:Xc sut tng c knh P(xi): E2: Pxo = (1-)^a3; copy cho cc di.
Ct F: Tn s l thuyt: N lti: F2: =$C$13*E2; copy cho cc di
68
Ct G: Tnh 2 tng c v tng. G2: = (f2-c2)^2/f2, copy cho cc di, cng

tng.
G14: Tra 2 bng (=0,05 ; K = 8-1-1=6): =Chiinv(0.05,6)
Kt qu 2 tnh < 2 bng . Kl: Phn b hnh hc m phng tt phn b thc nghim N /D.
Kt qu m phng phn b N/D theo phn b hnh hc
A
C D1,3 (cm)
N (c/ha)
Nixi
Px
Nlt (c/ha)
X2
15
125
0,38521
134
0,66
25
89
89
0,236823
83
0,49
35
56
112
0,145597
51
0,53
45
31
93
0,089511
31
0,00
55
19
76
0,055031
19
0,00
65
40
0,033832
12
1,23
75
10
60
0,0208
1,03
85
35
0,012788
0,12
10
95
24
0,007862
11
105
18
0,004833
12
10
115
10
0,002971
13
Tng
349
557
0,995258
347
xbq=
Alpha=
1,595989
X2 bng=
0,61479
K=8-1-1=6
4,06
12,59
10.3. M phng phn b thc nghim theo phn b Weibull:

Phn b Weibull l phn b xc sut ca bin ngu nhin lin tc vi min gi tr
x(0,+).
Hm mt :
f(x) = .(x - xmin)-1.exp(-(x - xmin)
Hm phn b:
F(x) = 1 - exp(-(x - xmin)
Vi xmin: tr s quan st nh nht.
x: cc gi tr quan st, nu xp theo t th x l gi tr gia mi t.
Khi:
<= 1: Phn b gim.
1<<3:Phn b lch tri
=3: Phn b i xng.
>3: Phn b lch phi.
c lng 2 tham s v :
69
Tham s thng c thm d trong mt khong thch hp da trn cc c trng

mu, cho chy tnh . Sau kim tra s ph hp ca phn b l thuyt bng tiu chuNn
2, chn cp tham s c 2 b nht v nh thua 2 bng.
Tham s c c lng bng phng php cc i hp l:
r
= N / N i.(xi - xmin)
i=1
N : Tng dung lng quan st.

N i: Tn s t i.
Tnh xc xut cho tng t:
+ T 1: P(x1)=F(x1) = 1 - exp(-(x1 + A - xmin) )
+ T 2: P(x2)=F(x2) - F(x1) = exp(-(x1 + A - xmin) ) - exp(-(x2 + A - xmin) )
+ T 3: P(x3)=F(x3) - F(x2) = exp(-(x2 + A - xmin) ) - exp(-(x3 + A - xmin) )
....................................................................................................................
+ T r: P(xr)=F(xr) - F(xr-1) = exp(-(xr-1 + A - xmin) ) - exp(-(xr + A - xmin) )
Vi A: gi tr 1/2 c ly t.
* Tn s l thuyt Nlt cho tng t:
N lti = N .P(xi).
* Kim tra s ph hp bng tiu chun 2.
Kt qu m phng phn b N/D theo hm Weibull
A
1
2
C D1,3 N (c/ha) Alpha

(cm)
15
125
1
N(x-xmin)^alpha
Lamda
P(x)
Nlt (c/ha)
X2
625,0
0,047710
0,379420
132
0,42
25
89
1335,0
0,235460
82
0,57
35
56
1400,0
0,146121
51
0,49
45
31
1085,0
0,090680
32
0,01
55
19
855,0
0,056274
20
0,02
65
440,0
0,034922
12
1,44
75
10
650,0
0,021672
0,78
85
375,0
0,013449
0,02
10
95
255,0
0,008346
0,00
11
105
190,0
0,005179
12
115
105,0
0,003214
349
7315,0
1,0
347
13 Tng
14
X2 bng=
15
K=9-1-1=7
3,76
14,07
Ct A: Gi tr gia c knh 15, 25,....115 vi c ly c 10 cm.

Ct B: S cy tng c N i. B13: tng N = Sum(b2:b12)
C2: a tham s thm d.
Ct D: Gi tr: N i(xi - 10). Vi xmin=10. Tnh ti d2: =B2*(A2-10)^$C$2, sau
copy cho cc di. D13 tnh tng =Sum(d2:d12).
70
E2: Tnh tham s : = B13/Sum(d2:d12).

Ct F: Tnh xc sut P(x) tng t: Tnh theo cng thc a ch .
Ct G: N lt tng t: G2: =$B$13*F2, sau copy xung v tnh tng.
Ct H: Tnh 2 tng t v tng 2=3.76
H14: Tra 2(0.05,7) =Chiinv(0.05,7)=14.07
KL: Phn b Weibull m phng tt phn b thc nghim.
Ch : chn c ti u, ln lt thay gi tr C2, bng tnh s t ng tnh
li, sau chn mt vi 2 b nht.
11. PHNG PHP NGHIN CU CU TRC MT BNG

RNG (Bo Huy, 1993)
Cu trc mt bng th hin s phn b v s dng khng gian dinh dng trn mt t rng,
kiu dng phn b thng c chia thnh ba kiu: ngu nhin, cm hoc u; trong kiu
phn b cm th hin rng cha li dng tt khng gian trn mt t. Cho nn cht nui dng
phi bo m sao cho phn b cy trn mt t rng ng u hn, to ra phn b cch u
hoc ngu nhin, trnh rng trng thi phn b cm, nh hng xu n qu trnh ti sinh,
sinh trng v phc hi rng. Tm li nghin cu phn b cy trn mt t nhm phc v cho
vic xut gii php k thut trong cht nui dng, ta tha, khai thc iu tit mt
trn b mt t rng.
Phng php p dng l phn b khong cch t mt cy chn ngu nhin n cy gn nht,
vi dung lng mu n > 30 (s khong cch o) tnh theo tiu chuNn U
_
Trong :
x
l n)
N u : U
(x
0 ,5 )
0 , 26136
: Khong cch bnh qun gia cc cy (Ly tng khong cch chia cho s ln o
: S cy trn mt m2 din tch t rng
1 , 96 cy rng phn b ngu nhin trn mt t rng
> 1 , 96
U < 1 , 96
cy rng phn b cch u trn mt t rng

cy rng phn b cm trn mt t rng
V d: nh gi phn b cy trn mt t rng:

Vi mu quan st n = 285 (s khong cch o) trn 5 iu tra nn dng tiu chuNn U ca
Klark v Evans nh gi phn b trn b mt t rng :
Kt qu tnh ton theo tiu chuNn U nh sau :
Tham s : = 0,095 (Tng s cy iu tra trong cc / tng din tch cc tiu chuNn); vi: n
= 285; c ly bnh qun gia 285 cy quan st ngu nhin l x = 2,158 m; Tnh ton c gi
tr : U = 10,667
Kt lun: Cy phn b trn mt bng ca lm phn l phn b cch u.
Tuy nhin vi nh gi trn mi ch xem xt phn b trn mt bng ca tt c cc cy cc th
h, cp knh khc nhau; iu ny cha th lm c s iu tit cu trc mt bng. C ly ti
u gia cc cy cn c thit lp cho tng th h hoc cp knh. Do vy trc khi i vo xy
dng cu trc mt bng, cn thit lp m hnh N /D nh hng (chuNn, n nh) lm c s
71
xc nh mt ti u cho tng cp knh v chung lm phn. Sau tm khong cch ti u

gia cc cy theo tng cp knh.
Phng php tm x: c ly bnh qun ti u cy rng c phn b ng u trn mt t rng
chung v theo cp knh.
T cng thc tnh U, gi nh rng c phn b u th U=2, v rng t mt chuNn N opt (s
cy ti u/ha tnh c t m hnh N /D nh hng xy dng), suy ra c ly gia cy rng
ti u:
x =
2 0 , 26136
Nopt
+ 0 ,5
Vi = N opt/10.000
V d: Vi N opt = 889 cy/ha (s cy mu t phn b N /D xy dng)
Suy ra : = N opt / 10.000 = 0.0889
T y tnh c c ly bnh qun ti u gia 2 cy gn nht trong lm phn : x = 1.73m
t c hiu qu cao hn trong iu tit cu trc mt bng, cn iu tit c ly ny theo
tng c knh c ngha l nu trong mt c knh t c s cy ti u N opti no theo cu
trc N /D, nhng phn b cha u th rng cng c nng sut thp. Vi l do cn tip tc
xc nh c ly bnh qun ti u cho tng c knh (xi), phng php xc nh nh trn, nhng
ch khc l mt ti u y c tnh theo tng c knh (N opti) theo m hnh N /D nh
hng, suy ra tham s i = N opti/10.000. T y ta tnh c c ly bnh qun ti u (xi) cho
tng c knh nh v d bng sau
M hnh c ly bnh qun ti u gia cc cy rng theo c knh
C ly
bnh qun
ti u
Cp knh D1.3
Xi (m)
(cm)
Nopt (c/ha)
15
377
0.037667
2.72
20
208
0.020814
3.72
U
2
2
25
115
0.011502
5.12
30
64
0.006356
7.09
35
35
0.003512
9.93
40
19
0.001941
14.04
45
11
0.001072
20.14
50
0.000593
29.36
55
0.000327
43.59
60
0.000181
66.05
65
0.000100
102.27
Tng
889
Qua bng trn cho thy i vi cp knh cng ln th c ly ti u rng c phn b u gia
2 cy cng ln, trong thc t p dng cn o khong cch t mt cy n cy gn nht nm
trong cng mt cp knh t c th c gii php la chn trong ta tha, nui dng, khai
72
thc chn rng, vi nh hng a rng v N opti v c c ly bo m cy rng c phn b

u, li dng tt nht khng gian dinh dng.
12. PHN TCH, PHT HIN CC NGUYN NHN, NHN T

NNH TNH, NNH LNG NH HNG N BIN PH
THUC (HU QU, VN ) (Bo Huy, 2006)
Trong thc th chng ta cn pht hin cc nhn t ch o nh hng n mt vn , hu qu.
V d cc nhn t no nh hng n mc xung yu ca lu vc, t y gip cho vic quy
hoch lu vc; hoc tm kim cc nhn t ch o nh hng n sinh trng sn lng ca
mt loi cy trng, lm c s quy hoch, chn vng trng thch hp, ....
M hnh hi quy a bin dng tuyn tnh hoc phi tuyn hoc t hp bin s l mt cng c
mnh gip cho vic pht hin cc nhn t nh hng r rt c v t nhin ln nhn t x hi.
Trong trng hp nhiu bin s xi nh hng n y khng theo dng tuyn tnh m c dng
quan h phi tuyn, trng hp ny cn i bin s tr v dng tuyn tnh, hoc lp m hnh
t hp bin.
Mt s dng tuyn tnh, phi tuyn nhiu lp ph bin v cch quy v tuyn tnh hoc t hp
bin:
y = a + b1x1 + b2x2 + . + bnxn
y = a.x1b1 x 2 b 2....xn bn tuyn tnh ha: ln(y) = ln(a) + b1.ln(x1) + b2ln(x2) + ... + bnln(xn)
y = a.e b1x1+b 2 x 2+...+bnxn tuyn tnh ha: ln(y) = ln(a) + b1x1 + b2x2 + ...+ bnxn
Hoc dng t hp bin v i bin s kt hp:
ln(y) = a + b1.log(x1.x2) + b2 exp(x3/x4) + .......
Trong Statgraphics, vic tnh ton m hnh kiu ny rt n gin v khng cn to thm cc ct
i bin s, bin s c i trc tip trong hp thoi khi thit lp m hnh.
V d nghin cu pht hin cc nhn t sinh thi, nhn tc nh hng n s thay i mt
ti sinh rng khp thng qua m ha v thit lp m hnh hi quy a bin:
Cch tin hnh bao gm:
Cc bc tin hnh nh sau:
i)
Thu thp d liu v bin s ph thuc y l mt ti sinh (Nts), cng vi n l cc
nhn t sinh thi, nhn tc nh hng (c th nh tnh hay nh lng)
ii)
M ha cc bin nh tnh
iii)
Kim tra dng chun ca mi bin s, nu cha chun phi i bin s a v
chun (log(x), 1/x, sqrt(x), exp(x), ....)
iv)
Chn bin s xi c nh hng n y
v)
Chy m hnh tuyn tnh nhiu lp hoc c i bin s, khi cn thit phi t hp
bin nu cc bin xi c quan h vi nhau. Kim tra m hnh: H s xc nh R2 c P
<0.05 v cc tham s gn bin s qua kim tra theo t phi c P < 0.05. Nu mt
bin s cha bo m P <0.05 th phi loi khi m hnh hoc i bin s, hoc t
hp vi bin s khc.
vi)
Phn tch kt qu m hnh hi quy a bin nh gi chiu hng tc ng ca
cc bin s sinh thi, nhn tc n ti nguyn, loi lm c s quy hoch, phi tr
khng gian cnh quan.
73
Thu thp s liu v m ha cc bin s nh tnh:

Cc nhn t tc ng, nh hng c th l nhn t nh lng c nh: lng ma, dc,
cao, .... hoc l nh tnh nh v tr a hnh, mc tc ng, mc la rng, nhn tc,
..... Trong trng hp nhn t l nh tnh th cn phi m ha c th thit lp m hnh hi
quy.
C hai phng n m ha:
i. M ha h thng: Cc mc , cp ca ca nhn t c m ha h thng 1, 2, 3,
.... V d m ha nhn t v tr a hnh: Bng = 1; chn = 2; sn = 3 v nh = 4
ii. M ha theo chiu bin thin: Cc mc , cp c m ha theo chiu bin thin
ca nhn t ph thuc. Sp xp nhn t ph thuc theo mt chiu no (tng hoc
gim), sau cc nhn t c m ha theo cng mt vector nh vy.
V d: M ha bin s theo chiu bin thin sinh trng

Sinh trng
cy rng H
(m)
V tr a hnh
M s v tr
10
15
20
25
30
nh
1
nh
2
Chn
3
Sn
4
Bng
5
V vic m ha khc nhau s dn n vic la chn m hnh hi quy c mc phc tp khc

nhau
Hai phng n m ha bin nh tnh khc nhau s dn n vic chn la m hnh hi quy
khc nhau
Kiu dng hm m phng
Tuyn tnh hoc phi tuyn

nhng theo 1 chiu (tng hoc
gim)
Phng php m ha bin nh tnh

H thng
Theo chiu bin thin, vector
ca bin ph thuc
(M ha n gin)
(M ha phc tp)
Khng thc hin c hoc sai
quy lut
Thc hin c
(Xy dng hm n gin)

Phi tuyn dng tng gim phc
tp, hoc t hp bin
Thc hin c nhng khng

cn thit
Thc hin c
(Xy dng hm phc tp)
Bng m ho cc nhn t lin quan n N ts rng khp

Nhn t
che ph thc b (%)
V tr a hnh
dc ()
cao (m)
dy t (Cm)
Kt von (%)
ni (%)
pH t
Lng ma (mm)
Khai thc
La rng
Phn cp v m ho cc bin s theo cp

Cp 1 = 1
Cp 2 = 2
Cp 3 = 3
Khng phn cp, ly theo o m
nh
Sn
Chn
Sau nng ry
Cht chn
Khng c
Hng nm
Thnh thong
Khng c
K hiu
Cphu tbi
Vi tri
Do doc
Do cao
Do day dat
Ket von
Da noi
pH
Luong mua
Muc do khai thac
Muc do lua rung
74
Biu tng hp m ha cc nhn t v N ts rng khp

Nts
Cphu
tbi
Vi
tri
Do
doc
Do
cao
Do
day
dat
Ket
von
Da
noi
pH
Luong
mua
Muc do
khai
thac
Muc do
Lua
rung
567
700
1133
1100
600
3267
3900
300
1
1
33
233
33
433
967
1500
200
600
933
15
5
5
12
10
10
10
55
75
5
60
65
80
40
55
45
60
75
65
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
3
3
1
3
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
7
4
12
7
3
1
12
1
1
19
1
13
14
1
1
1
1
1
1
222
230
238
244
258
214
232
233
236
235
226
234
228
215
215
216
213
236
192
20
20
20
7
20
20
7
12
12
12
13
14
15
27
12
10
7
17
8
1
1
1
10
10
1
1
1
20
10
30
40
30
10
30
1
30
1
5
1
1
15
20
30
1
25
30
20
40
60
35
15
1
30
15
20
1
25
7
7
6.8
7
6.6
6.8
6.8
6.4
6.4
7
6.6
6.4
6.2
6.2
6.4
6.6
6.6
6.6
6.6
1231
1231
1231
1231
1231
1231
1231
1500
1500
1500
1500
1500
1500
1500
1500
1500
1500
1500
1500
1
2
2
2
3
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
3
2
2
2
2
3
3
1
1
3
2
2
2
2
2
T file d liu m ha trong Excel, tin hnh nhp vo Statgraphics Plus pht hin cc nhn
t nh hng v xy dng m hnh hi quy d bo N ts
D liu c nhp vo Statgraphics Plus nh sau: File/Open/Open Data file .... Chn th mc
v kiu file Excel m file trong Statgraphics Plus.
C s d liu t Excel c nhp vo trong Statgraphics Plus
Kim tra dng chun ca mi bin s:

Mi bin s tham gia vo m hnh nhiu bin phi bo m phn b chuNn, mt bin s c
phn b chuNn khi mu quan st trong mi tng tc vi cc bin s khc, trong mt s
trng hp tuy mu ln, nhng khi tng tc vn cha chuNn, do cn i bin s
chuNn ha.
Kim tra dng chuNn ca cc bin s trong Statgrahics v nh hng i bin s:
75
Improve/Regression Analysis/Multiple Factors/Multiple Variable Analysis. Sau a tt c

bin y v xi vo hp thoi data.
Chn chng trnh kim tra lut chuNn v nh hng i bin s chuNn ha trong
Statgraphics Centurion
76
Kt qu kim tra lut chuNn v mi quan h cc bin s
- Kt qu kim tra phn b chun ca cc bin s:

Summary Statistics
Cphu tbi
Da noi
Count
19
19
Average
39.3158
20.2632
Standard deviation 28.2352
15.7298
Coeff. of variation 71.8165% 77.6276%
Minimum
5.0
1.0
Maximum
80.0
60.0
Range
75.0
59.0
Stnd. skewness
-0.0680602 1.14805
Stnd. kurtosis
-1.59069
0.668059
Muc do Lua rung
Count
19
Average
2.10526
Standard deviation
0.567131
Coeff. of variation
26.9387%
Minimum
1.0
Maximum
3.0
Range
2.0
Stnd. skewness
0.0906087
Stnd. kurtosis
0.52516
-
Do cao
19
227.211
14.4167
6.3451%
192.0
258.0
66.0
-0.60383
1.10545
Nts
19
868.474
1054.29
121.395%
1.0
3900.0
3899.0
3.63749
3.5476
Do day dat
19
14.3684
5.63925
39.2475%
7.0
27.0
20.0
0.81906
-0.344544
pH
19
6.63158
0.260454
3.92748%
6.2
7.0
0.8
0.0232827
-0.823423
Do doc
19
5.31579
5.82192
109.521%
1.0
19.0
18.0
1.93703
-0.0689246
Ket von
19
12.2632
13.2826
108.313%
1.0
40.0
39.0
1.52115
-0.688123
Luong mua
19
1400.89
133.315
9.51641%
1231.0
1500.0
269.0
-1.05608
-1.65147
Muc do khai thac

19
2.63158
0.597265
22.6961%
1.0
3.0
2.0
-2.56858
1.22788
Vi tri
19
2.78947
0.535303
19.1901%
1.0
3.0
2.0
-4.72906
6.1244
The StatAdvisor
This table shows summary statistics for each of the selected data variables. It includes measures of central tendency, measures
of variability, and measures of shape. Of particular interest here are the standardized skewness and standardized kurtosis,
which can be used to determine whether the sample comes from a normal distribution. Values of these statistics outside the
range of -2 to +2 indicate significant departures from normality, which would tend to invalidate many of the statistical
procedures normally applied to this data. In this case, the following variables show standardized skewness values outside the
expected range:
Muc do khai thac
N ts
Vi tri
The following variables show standardized kurtosis values outside the expected range:
N ts
Vi tri
To make the variables more normal, you might try a transformation such as LOG(Y), SQRT(Y), or 1/Y.
77
Kt qu cho thy c 3 bin s c Standardized Sk hoc Ku khng bo m c phn b chuNn

l: Nts, Muc do khai thac v Vi tri. V 3 bin ny cn i bin s cc dng LOG(Y), SQRT(Y), or
1/Y chuNn ha.
i bin s chun ha
Summary Statistics
Count
Average
Standard deviation
Coeff. of variation
Minimum
Maximum
Range
Stnd. skewness
Stnd. kurtosis
Cphu tbi
19
39.3158
28.2352
71.8165%
5.0
80.0
75.0
-0.0680602
-1.59069
Da noi
19
20.2632
15.7298
77.6276%
1.0
60.0
59.0
1.14805
0.668059
Count
Average
Standard deviation
Coeff. of variation
Minimum
Maximum
Range
Stnd. skewness
Stnd. kurtosis
sqrt(Muc do khai thac)

19
1.60988
0.205131
12.742%
1.0
1.73205
0.732051
-3.07989
2.6152
Do cao
19
227.211
14.4167
6.3451%
192.0
258.0
66.0
-0.60383
1.10545
Do day dat
19
14.3684
5.63925
39.2475%
7.0
27.0
20.0
0.81906
-0.344544
Muc do Lua rung

19
2.10526
0.567131
26.9387%
1.0
3.0
2.0
0.0906087
0.52516
Do doc
19
5.31579
5.82192
109.521%
1.0
19.0
18.0
1.93703
-0.0689246
sqrt(Nts)
19
24.5836
16.697
67.9193%
1.0
62.45
61.45
1.22414
0.490076
Ket von
19
12.2632
13.2826
108.313%
1.0
40.0
39.0
1.52115
-0.688123
pH
19
6.63158
0.260454
3.92748%
6.2
7.0
0.8
0.0232827
-0.823423
Luong mua
19
1400.89
133.315
9.51641%
1231.0
1500.0
269.0
-1.05608
-1.65147
log(Vi tri)
19
0.99811
0.273236
27.3753%
0.0
1.09861
1.09861
-5.60515
9.35136
The StatAdvisor
This table shows summary statistics for each of the selected data variables. It includes measures of central tendency, measures
of variability, and measures of shape. Of particular interest here are the standardized skewness and standardized kurtosis,
which can be used to determine whether the sample comes from a normal distribution. Values of these statistics outside the
78
range of -2 to +2 indicate significant departures from normality, which would tend to invalidate many of the statistical
procedures normally applied to this data. In this case, the following variables show standardized skewness values outside the
expected range:
log(Vi tri)
The following variables show standardized kurtosis values outside the expected range:
log(Vi tri)
To make the variables more normal, you might try a transformation such as LOG(Y), SQRT(Y), or 1/Y.
V d sau khi th i bin s th bin sqrt(N ts) bo m lut chuNn, trong khi th 2 bin Muc
do khai thc v Vi tr vn cha tha mn; nu tip tc i bin s m cng khng bo m th
c 2 phng n: i) i bin s theo kiu khc; ii) Thu thp thm d liu bo m chuNn;
Chn bin s xi c nh hng n y
Kt qu phn tch ny cng ch ra c cc bin s c quan h vi nhau v nh hng n y
(N ts)
Correlations
Cphu tbi
Cphu tbi
0.1812
(19)
0.4579
Do cao
-0.3116
(19)
0.1940
Do day dat
-0.2666
(19)
0.2698
Do doc
-0.3217
(19)
0.1792
Ket von
0.5636
(19)
0.0120
Luong mua
0.8266
(19)
0.0000
sqrt(Muc do khai thac) 0.6420
(19)
0.0030
Muc do Lua rung
-0.3769
(19)
0.1117
sqrt(N ts)
-0.4810
(19)
0.0371
pH
-0.7690
(19)
0.0001
log(Vi tri)
0.2821
(19)
0.2420
Da noi
0.1812
(19)
0.4579
Da noi
Cphu tbi
Da noi
0.1619
(19)
0.5078
-0.4934
(19)
0.0318
0.1835
(19)
0.4522
0.5192
(19)
0.0227
0.3481
(19)
0.1442
0.4579
(19)
0.0486
0.2521
(19)
0.2979
-0.3686
(19)
0.1204
-0.1160
(19)
0.6361
-0.3823
(19)
0.1062
Muc do Lua rung

-0.3769
(19)
0.1117
0.2521
Do cao
-0.3116
(19)
0.1940
0.1619
(19)
0.5078
0.1432
(19)
0.5587
0.3592
(19)
0.1309
-0.0287
(19)
0.9070
-0.3695
(19)
0.1194
-0.0594
(19)
0.8092
0.1194
(19)
0.6262
-0.1715
(19)
0.4826
0.1786
(19)
0.4643
-0.1869
(19)
0.4436
Do day dat
-0.2666
(19)
0.2698
-0.4934
(19)
0.0318
0.1432
(19)
0.5587
-0.0680
(19)
0.7820
-0.2313
(19)
0.3407
-0.2668
(19)
0.2695
-0.2309
(19)
0.3415
0.2478
(19)
0.3064
-0.0247
(19)
0.9199
-0.0916
(19)
0.7093
0.2069
(19)
0.3953
sqrt(N ts)
-0.4810
(19)
0.0371
-0.3686
Do doc
-0.3217
(19)
0.1792
0.1835
(19)
0.4522
0.3592
(19)
0.1309
-0.0680
(19)
0.7820
0.1117
(19)
0.6490
-0.1692
(19)
0.4885
-0.1966
(19)
0.4197
-0.2294
(19)
0.3449
-0.1215
(19)
0.6203
0.2715
(19)
0.2608
-0.7285
(19)
0.0004
pH
-0.7690
(19)
0.0001
-0.1160
79
Ket von
0.5636
(19)
0.0120
0.5192
(19)
0.0227
-0.0287
(19)
0.9070
-0.2313
(19)
0.3407
0.1117
(19)
0.6490
0.5135
(19)
0.0245
0.4748
(19)
0.0400
-0.2546
(19)
0.2928
-0.5421
(19)
0.0165
-0.5164
(19)
0.0236
-0.0642
(19)
0.7940
log(Vi tri)
0.2821
(19)
0.2420
-0.3823
Luong mua
0.8266
(19)
0.0000
0.3481
(19)
0.1442
-0.3695
(19)
0.1194
-0.2668
(19)
0.2695
-0.1692
(19)
0.4885
0.5135
(19)
0.0245
0.8012
(19)
0.0000
-0.0520
(19)
0.8325
-0.5983
(19)
0.0068
-0.6796
(19)
0.0014
-0.1223
(19)
0.6180

0.6420
(19)
0.0030
0.4579
(19)
0.0486
-0.0594
(19)
0.8092
-0.2309
(19)
0.3415
-0.1966
(19)
0.4197
0.4748
(19)
0.0400
0.8012
(19)
0.0000
0.1167
(19)
0.6343
-0.4547
(19)
0.0505
-0.6910
(19)
0.0011
-0.1035
(19)
0.6733
Do cao
Do day dat
Do doc
Ket von
Luong mua
(19)
0.2979
0.1194
(19)
0.6262
0.2478
(19)
0.3064
-0.2294
(19)
0.3449
-0.2546
(19)
0.2928
-0.0520
(19)
0.8325
0.1167
(19)
0.6343
Muc do Lua rung
sqrt(N ts)
pH
log(Vi tri)
-0.1064
(19)
0.6648
0.2019
(19)
0.4071
-0.1764
(19)
0.4699
(19)
0.1204
-0.1715
(19)
0.4826
-0.0247
(19)
0.9199
-0.1215
(19)
0.6203
-0.5421
(19)
0.0165
-0.5983
(19)
0.0068
-0.4547
(19)
0.0505
-0.1064
(19)
0.6648
0.3337
(19)
0.1627
0.1746
(19)
0.4748
(19)
0.6361
0.1786
(19)
0.4643
-0.0916
(19)
0.7093
0.2715
(19)
0.2608
-0.5164
(19)
0.0236
-0.6796
(19)
0.0014
-0.6910
(19)
0.0011
0.2019
(19)
0.4071
0.3337
(19)
0.1627
(19)
0.1062
-0.1869
(19)
0.4436
0.2069
(19)
0.3953
-0.7285
(19)
0.0004
-0.0642
(19)
0.7940
-0.1223
(19)
0.6180
-0.1035
(19)
0.6733
-0.1764
(19)
0.4699
0.1746
(19)
0.4748
-0.2960
(19)
0.2186
-0.2960
(19)
0.2186
Correlation
(Sample Size)
P-Value
The StatAdvisor
This table shows Pearson product moment correlations between each pair of variables. These correlation coefficients range
between -1 and +1 and measure the strength of the linear relationship between the variables. Also shown in parentheses is the
number of pairs of data values used to compute each coefficient. The third number in each location of the table is a P-value
which tests the statistical significance of the estimated correlations. P-values below 0.05 indicate statistically significant nonzero correlations at the 95.0% confidence level. The following pairs of variables have P-values below 0.05:
Cphu tbi and Ket von

Cphu tbi and Luong mua
Cphu tbi and sqrt(Muc do khai thac)
Cphu tbi and sqrt(Nts)
Cphu tbi and pH
Da noi and Do day dat
Da noi and Ket von
Da noi and sqrt(Muc do khai thac)
Do doc and log(Vi tri)
Ket von and Luong mua
Ket von and sqrt(Muc do khai thac)
Ket von and sqrt(Nts)
Ket von and pH
Luong mua and sqrt(Muc do khai thac)
Luong mua and sqrt(Nts)
Luong mua and pH
sqrt(Muc do khai thac) and pH
T kt qu ny cho thy N ts b chi phi bi 3 nhn t chnh l: Cphu tbi, Kvon, Luong mua.
T y thit lp m hnh quan h N ts vi 3 bin ny lng ha s nh hng.
80
Xy dng m hnh a bin
Cc nhn t sinh thi, nhn tc c a vo nghin cu nh hng n ch tiu N ts: che

ph ca thc b (%), V tr a hnh, dc (), cao vo vi mt bin (m), dy t (cm),
kt von (%), ni (%), pH t, lng ma (mm), mc khai thc, mc la rng. Cc
nhn t ny c kim tra c hay khng quan h N ts bng m hnh hi quy a bin. Gia cc
nhn t sinh thi, nhn tc c s nh hng qua li rt phc tp v chng cng c nh hng
tng hp n cc nhn t N ts, do khi kim tra mi quan h m hnh hi quy a bin, chp
nhn mc sai l <5% - 10% (P < 0.05 - 0.10).
Xy dng m hnh: Improve/Regression Analysis/Multiple Factors/Mutiple Regression Sau
chn cc bin y, xi vo trong hp thoi. Lu i bin s chuNn ha nh xc nh
bc trn.
Vo chng trnh chy m hnh hi quy a bin trong Statgraphics Centurion
81
Multiple Regression - sqrt(Nts)

Dependent variable: sqrt(N ts)
Cphu tbi
Ket von
Luong mua
Parameter
CON STAN T
Cphu tbi
Ket von
Luong mua
Estimate
127.22
0.118008
-0.4484
-0.0726513
Source
Sum of Squares
Model
2230.26
Residual
2787.98
Total (Corr.)
5018.24
Standard
Error
53.9381
0.21119
0.29441
0.0430591
Df
3
15
18
T
Statistic
2.35863
0.558777
-1.52305
-1.68725
Mean Square
743.419
185.866
P-Value
0.0323
0.5846
0.1485
0.1122
F-Ratio
4.00
P-Value
0.0281

The StatAdvisor
The output shows the results of fitting a multiple linear regression model to describe the relationship between sqrt(N ts) and 3
sqrt(Nts) = 127.22 + 0.118008*Cphu tbi - 0.4484*Ket von - 0.0726513*Luong mua

The R-Squared statistic indicates that the model as fitted explains 44.443% of the variability in sqrt(N ts). The adjusted Rsquared statistic, which is more suitable for comparing models with different numbers of independent variables, is 33.3316%.
belonging to Cphu tbi. Since the P-value is greater or equal to 0.05, that term is not statistically significant at the 95.0% or
higher confidence level. Consequently, you should consider removing Cphu tbi from the model.
Kt qu cho thy c 3 bin s u c Pvalue>0.05; do cha tham gia c vo m hnh; lc

ny cn i bin s (log, exp, sqrt, 1/xi, ...) hoc t hp bin bo m s tn ti ca bin s
. N u mt bin no cha tm c cch i bin s thch hp hoc t hp bin th cn loi
khi m hnh, tuy nhin thc t bin ny c nh hng n y, nhng cha c pht hin dng
bin s thch hp.
82
Kt qu th nghim i bin s, t hp bin, loi bin s

Multiple Regression - sqrt(Nts)
Dependent variable: sqrt(N ts)
log(Luong mua*Ket von)
Parameter
CON STAN T
log(Luong mua*Ket von)
Estimate
83.901
-6.68159
Source
Sum of Squares
Model
1991.09
Residual
3027.15
Total (Corr.)
5018.24
Df
1
17
18
Standard
Error
18.0012
1.99815
T
Statistic
4.66085
-3.34389
Mean Square
1991.09
178.068
P-Value
0.0002
0.0038
F-Ratio
11.18
P-Value
0.0038

The StatAdvisor
The output shows the results of fitting a multiple linear regression model to describe the relationship between sqrt(N ts) and 1
sqrt(Nts) = 83.901 - 6.68159*log(Luong mua*Ket von)

The R-Squared statistic indicates that the model as fitted explains 39.677% of the variability in sqrt(N ts). The adjusted Rsquared statistic, which is more suitable for comparing models with different numbers of independent variables, is 36.1286%.
there is any significant correlation based on the order in which they occur in your data file. Since the P-value is greater than
0.05, there is no indication of serial autocorrelation in the residuals at the 95.0% confidence level.
belonging to log(Luong mua*Ket von). Since the P-value is less than 0.05, that term is statistically significant at the 95.0%
confidence level. Consequently, you probably don't want to remove any variables from the model.
Plot of sqrt(Nts)
80
observed
60
40
20
0
0
20
40
predicted
83
60
80
Kt qu thit lp c m hnh:
sqrt(Nts) = 83.901 - 6.68159*log(Luong mua*Ket von)

Vi R-squared = 39.677 percent; Pvalue <0.05
Cc tham s u tn ti vi Pvalue = 0.0038 < 0.05
Phn tch kt qu m hnh
Vi vic th nghim vi nhiu nhn t nh hng, kt qu cho thy mt ti sinh cy h du

gim khi vng c lng ma tng, c ngha c nhiu loi cy thng xanh s xen vo trong
qun th, lc ny rng chuyn dn sang dng chuyn tip; v kt von gia tng (lin quan n
la rng, xi mn, chua tng) lm kh nng ti sinh cy h du suy gim. Kt qu ny s h
tr cho gii php lm sinh xc tin ti sinh rng khp ngho kit.
Mt v d khc v nghin cu pht hin cc nhn t ch o nh hng n mc xi mn
t v dng chy mt trong mt lu vc Vn quc gia Bi p N i B tnh Lm ng. Trn
thc a thu nhp nhn t ph thuc y l xi mn, dng chy mt v cc nhn t nh hng
nh thm thc vt rng, t ai, a hnh, lng ma, nhn tc. Sau m ha cc nhn t
nh tnh theo phng php h thng.
Mu phiu nghin cu cc nhn t tc ng n mi trng rng (Xi mn t, dng
chy trong lu vc)
im kho st: L: ............................ a im: .........................................
Ta UTM: X: ............................................... Y: ..........................
Ngy kho st: ....................................... Ngi kho st: .......................................
Cc nhn t
Gi tr, hoc m t
Nhn t ph thuc, b tc ng
(y)
- Xi mn t
- Dng chy mt
Gii thch
M ha t 1 5:
1: An ton
2: t nguy c
3: Nguy c trung bnh
4: Nguy c
5: Nguy c cao
Cc nhn t nh hng (xi)

1. Nhm nhn t thm thc vt
- Kiu rng
TX: 1, HG: 2; Thng: 3; Le tre: 4
- Trng thi
Giu (TT): 1; TB (TN): 2; Ngho (So): 3,

Non: 4; Tc: 5
Tn 2-3 loi cy g u th. M s ngu
nhin: 1,2,3,4,
- u hp
- tn che (1/10)
- Tng G (m2/ha)
Dng thc Bitterlich
- Cu trc tng tn
- Mc ng u ca cy rng
trn mt t
S tng rng (1- 5 tng)

1: ng u
2: Ngu nhin
3: Cm
M s ngu nhin
- Loi le tre
- % che ph ca le tre
- Loi thm thc b
Tn 1-2 loi chnh

M s ngu nhin
- % che ph ca thc b
2. Nhm nhn t a hnh
- cao so vi mt bin (m)
Dng GPS
- V tr
0: Khe suoi
84
Cc nhn t
Gi tr, hoc m t
Gii thch
1: Chn
2: Sn
3: nh
- dc (o)
Cp: 1: <10; 2: 10 20; 3: 20 30,

4: 30 40; 5: >40
Dng thc Sunnto
- Chiu di dc (m)
Thc dy 30m
- Hng phi
a bn
3 Nhm nhn t t ai
- Loi t
- Mu sc t
M s ngu nhin
- dy tng t (cm)
- xp t
- m t (%)
1: Ti xp
2: Cht
3: B cht
Dng c o
- pH t
nt
- Nhit t (oC)
nt
- % kt von
- % ni
- % t do giun t to nn
4. Nhm nhn t kh hu thy
vn
- Lng ma trung bnh nm
(mm)
- m khng kh (%)
Dng c o
- Nhit khng kh (oC)
nt
- Lux
nt
- C ly n sng sui gn nht

(m)
5. Nhm nhn t nhn tc
Mc la rng
Bn a hnh + GPS
S liu th cp
0: Khng c
1: t c
2: Vi nm
3: Hng nm
0: Nguyn sinh
1: Khai thc chn
2: B ha sau nng ry
3: Cht trng trng cy nng nghip
Mc ng tc ng n thm thc
vt rng
85
Bng tng hp s liu m ha cc nhn t lin quan n xi mn, dng chy mt trong
lu vc Bi p Ni B Lm ng
Muc do
xoi
mon va
dong
chay
mat
2
2
3
2
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
1
3
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
3
3
2
2
1
1
3
1
1
Do tan
che
0.7
0.6
0.8
0.3
0.0
0.8
0.8
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.7
0.3
0.3
0.6
0.5
0.7
0.5
0.6
0.3
0.5
0.0
0.2
0.1
0.3
0.0
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.3
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.6
0.0
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.6
0.7
0.0
0.5
0.8
Gha
20
10
12
10
0
33
34
34
23
22
25
32
31
30
31
20
34
32
10
15
33
26
20
8
27
32
22
28
4
12
0
18
5
35
0
20
27
26
26
22
26
21
33
0
35
24
45
36
27
0
37
24
So tang
tan
rung
Do
dong
deu
cua cay
rung
5
5
4
1
1
5
5
5
5
4
5
5
5
4
5
5
5
5
5
4
3
5
4
5
5
5
4
4
5
4
2
2
1
5
0
4
4
3
5
5
4
5
5
0
4
4
5
3
5
0
1
4
1
2
2
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
2
2
2
2
1
3
3
2
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
86
Ty le
che
phu
thuc bi
60
7
7
16
95
5
5
9
70
6
5
60
6
0
7
2
5
5
7
5
0
90
90
0
20
50
0
0
30
30
90
60
70
70
70
40
50
0
0
50
50
20
50
80
30
30
5
0
10
90
40
0
Vi tri
Do doc
2
0
2
1
0
3
3
2
2
2
0
2
3
2
1
2
2
2
1
2
2
2
2
0
2
0
3
2
2
2
2
3
2
1
1
2
3
3
2
3
2
0
3
2
2
2
2
3
3
2
2
2
45
12
23
9
9
50
80
14
30
30
20
30
40
15
20
20
30
70
40
46
15
18
18
15
15
5
0
10
8
15
20
0
5
5
3
12
0
0
9
2
14
0
15
40
15
20
5
0
22
5
18
Phan tram
da noi
0
80
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
0
20
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
15
0
0
0
0
15
0
0
Muc do
xoi
mon va
dong
chay
mat
2
2
2
2
3
2
2
2
1
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
4
3
4
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
Do tan
che
0.7
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.0
0.5
0.8
0.4
0.3
0.9
0.0
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.2
0.9
0.8
0.6
0.0
0.3
0.3
0.8
0.0
0.3
0.5
0.5
0.3
0.9
0.8
0.6
0.6
0.1
0.6
0.8
0.6
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.6
0.3
Gha
37
32
36
26
23
0
22
13
19
21
14
0
22
19
16
18
25
21
4
0
21
20
38
0
22
30
13
17
13
32
26
20
1
32
28
48
18
30
28
45
18
So tang
tan
rung
Do
dong
deu
cua cay
rung
4
5
5
4
4
1
4
3
3
3
4
2
3
4
4
2
4
4
4
1
2
4
4
1
2
3
2
4
3
4
3
4
2
5
4
3
4
4
4
4
3
1
1
2
1
1
2
1
2
2
2
1
1
2
3
1
1
3
1
3
3
1
2
4
1
1
1
1
1
2
3
2
1
2
1
1
1
2
2
87
Ty le
che
phu
thuc bi
0
5
10
25
30
90
30
0
60
40
20
80
30
30
80
95
35
30
30
85
80
90
25
90
90
20
95
60
0
15
35
40
95
30
30
40
20
10
15
45
78
Vi tri
Do doc
3
3
2
2
2
1
3
3
1
2
2
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
0
1
2
1
1
1
3
2
1
1
3
2
1
0
0
2
3
3
1
3
2
2
3
10
12
40
25
18
0
17
62
22
20
54
0
12
22
6
15
25
19
16
0
25
0
40
0
45
37
0
0
0
45
40
25
0
42
0
0
0
0
32
35
0
Phan tram
da noi
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
20
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
10
0
0
5
1
0
0
0
0
0
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
X l trong Statgraphics tm nhn t nh hng ch o n xi mn v dng chy.
Kt qu thit lp m hnh quan h xi mn vi cc nhn t ch o
Muc do xoi mon va dong chay mat = 3.01414 + 0.332178*log(Do doc) 0.434949*log(Gha) - 0.632207*log(So tang tan rung)
Vi R = 0.5 v cc gi tr P kim tra cc nhn t nh hng u < 0.1
M hnh ny phn nh mc xi mn gia tng theo cp dc, do phn cp dc l mt

lp nhn t trong phn cp xung yu phng h u ngun; bn cnh nu thm ph rng c
G v s tng tn gia tng th lm gim nguy c xi mn, gim dng chy mt. V vy lp thm
ph rng cn xc nh cc nhn t G v s tng tn lm ch o trong phn cp xung yu u
ngun.
89
Mc ch x
l thng k,
ng dng tin
hc trong lm
nghip
Cng c
thng k, tin
hc
Kt qu phn
tch
M t mt mu: Trng thi

rng, l rng, th nghim,
vn m
Phn tch cc c trng

ca mt mu quan st
Phn nh i tng:
- S trung bnh
- Phng sai, bin ng
- Kiu phn b: Lch (Sk), nhn (Ku)
- Uc lng khong bin ng theo
tin cy ?%
So snh cc th nghim: Trong

phng, hin trng:
- So snh 2 cng thc, 2 mu
- So snh tc ng 1 2 nhn t
- Tiu chun t
- ANOVA 1 -2 nhn t
Chn la c cng thc

ti u: Loi, bin php k
thut, ging, ...
Phn tch xc xut theo q v

X2
Cc loi quan h: Dng,

m, ngu nhin phc v
trng v lm giu rng hn
giao
Pht hin quan h sinh thi

loi
Lp cc m hnh tuyn tnh, phi

tuyn 1 - nhiu bin
M phng quy lut cu trc 3 chiu
Pht hin cc yu t nh hng

n mt vn : Cc nhn t sinh
thi, nhn tc nh hng n sinh
trng, t. nc, l vc
Phn tch tng quan hi

quy
- Sp xp tn s
- X2 kim tra thun nht
- Tiu chun U nh gi
phn b mt bng
- M phng cu trc: Mayer,
Weibull, ...
- M ha bin nh tnh
- Phn tch hi quy a
bin, lc bin, t hp
bin
Cc m hnh quan h phc v:

- iu tra rng
- Pht hin cc nhn t nh
hng n 1 nhn t ph thuc
- Pht hin v m t quy

lut phn b
- ng dng trong iu ch
rng
- Pht hin cc nhn t ch

o v sinh thi, sinh
trng, lu vc
- Quy hoch, xut bin
php k thut
Tm tt ng dng thng k v tin hc trong lm nghip
90

Bai Giang Thong Ke Va Tin Hoc Cho Cao Hoc Lam Nghiep 2009

Uploaded by

Document Information

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Bai Giang Thong Ke Va Tin Hoc Cho Cao Hoc Lam Nghiep 2009

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

B GIO DC V O TO

1 TNG QUT V CHC NNG X L THNG K CA

i vi MS. Office 2007, tin hnh m ch

N h vy trong thc t qun l d liu nng

Mt s hm thng dng trong thng k:

1.2 Tng qut v phn mm x l thng k Statgraphics Centuiron

S dng chc nng phn tch c trng mu ca Excel

Confidence Level (95,0%)

Mean: S trung bnh.

Trong kt qu phn tch c trng mu ni trn, ngoi cc ch s ph bin cn quan tm nh s

100 v % l sai s tng i cho trc.

3 SO SNH 1 2 MU QUAN ST BNG TIU CHUN T

3.1 So snh mt mu vi mt gi tr cho trc Kim tra T mt

tnh c gi tr t, cn tnh ton c trng mu c cc gi tr thng k v Xbq, S.

3.2 So snh s sai khc gia trung bnh 2 mu Kim tra T 2 mu

Cng thc tnh gi tr kim tra t:

X1, X2: Trung bnh ca mu 1 v 2.

Tnh F: Mt trong 2 cch:

Trong Hp thoi: Xc nh:

t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Equal Variances

4 NGHIN CU MI QUAN H SINH THI LOI TRONG

Vic nghin cu mi quan h gia cc loi l nhm mc ch:

Xc nh din tch biu hin loi

D bo mi quan h gia cc loi

Din tch tiu chun

C th biu th vic xc nh din tch biu hin loi bng th sau:

D bo mi quan h sinh thi gia cc loi

S: sai tiu chuNn mu

nA(c) nB(b) nAB(a) nAB(d)

Bng Lng Vng Trng

Bng Lng Trm

Bng Lng Xng c

nA(c) nB(b) nAB(a) nAB(d)

Vng trng Trm

Vng trng Xng c

5 PHN TCH PHNG SAI

5.1. Phn tch phng sai 1 nhn t vi cc th nghim ngu

V d: nh gi kt qu kho nghim xut x Pinus caribeae ti Lang Hanh-Lm ng.

Phn tch phng sai 1 nhn t:

Kt qu phn tch phng sai 1 nhn t

N h vy, xt theo ch tiu ng knh, xut x ti u trong 7 xut x kho nghim l 5 v 6,

5.2. Phn tch phng sai 2 nhn t

B tr th nghim trn hin trng

N hn t B c chia thnh b khi, mi khi b tr a cng thc ca nhn t A mt cch ngu

o Cc kh hu, a hnh, chm sc...u c ng nht, nhn t thay i kho st ch

Phn tch phng sai 2 nhn t 1 ln lp:

Kt qu phn tch phng sai 2 nhn t 1 ln lp li

15 5.474551 7.804468 3.58E-08 1.894875

3 1.134177 1.616873 0.198718 2.811547

T bng AN OVA nhn c:

Kt qu dng tiu chuNn t so snh sinh trng ng knh ln nht ca xut x 8 vi cc

N h vy, xt theo ch tiu ng knh, xut x ti u trong 16 xut x kho nghim l 8 v 5,

V d: N ghin cu nh hng ca hai nhn t th nghim l mt v bn phn n nng sut

Bng s liu sn lng bng theo t hp 2 nhn t v lp li 4 ln mt t hp

Phn tch phng sai 2 nhn t m ln lp:

Kt qu phn tch phng sai 2 nhn t m ln lp

6. PHN TCH TNG QUAN - HI QUY

6.1. Hi quy tuyn tnh 1 lp

c lng tng quan hi quy ng thng:

Kt qu c lng hi quy tuyn tnh 1 lp

Phng trnh tng quan:

6.2. Dng phi tuyn a v tuyn tnh 1 lp

y = a.e bx tuyn tnh ha: ln(y) = ln(a) + b.x

Nhp s liu v i bin s: