INSTITUTE OF HYDROLOGY

OFPHYSICALLY.BASED ONTHEROLE I iE {O DISTRIBUT DDELLING HYDROLOGY

by K , l B E V Ea N ndP E O'CONNELL

ASSTRACT

of hydrotoglcal modeuinq is Ihe rationale of various allscused, and the capabllitLes of noalels are conrsideled. The potential physicallfbased dlstrlbuted nodelling in hyaLology 1s noted sith lefereoce to speciflc areas, atrd the current status of applicatic'n nodelling assessed. The role of distrlbuted Europ6en (sHE) in the Systlme sydrologique developlng a qeneral methodology for physj.cally-based distrj.buced catchnent rnodell.lng is aieflned-

REPORT NO81 August 1982

CONTENTS
Page ON THE RATIONALE OF IIYDROIGICEI !'IODEITING l

ON TITE CHOICE CF A I.IATHE}IATICAI, IIODEL

ON TIIE NEED FOR PHYSICAITIY-BASED IN HYDROI,OCY 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4

DISTRIBUIED

MODEI,S

'7 '1

catclment changea q)actally variable inputs and outputs tlte movenent of pollulants anil sealtunel! Prediction of the hy&ofogicaf responses

a
of

ungauqed catctments Scllre further benefits based nodels

of alistributed

physically-

ON TAE CI'RRENT STATUS OF DISTRIBUIED CATCIIUEIIT IIYDROIOGY

!|ODELI,IIG

OF IO

A BRIEF

INTRODUCTION TO THE SIIE MODE]-

TOWARDS A GENERAL MEIITODOI.OGY EOR THE DISTRIBINED MODEI,IING OF CATCTUBET SYDROI,oGY 6.L 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 Problen definiti.on Paraseter definition Uodel ca1.i-bration/validation analysis Sensitivity Flanning scenario evaluatj.on

I9 20 22 23 23

EIJ:|URE PROSPECTS Acknowl edgeEents

25

REEERENCES

27

"~owadays model b u i l d i n g has become a generously s u p p r t e d

indoor sportn
Von Bertal anff y,

I 968

ON TEIE RATIONALE

( 1 P

RPDROLOGICAL MODELLING

Mathematical modelling in hydrology can be j u s t i f i e d from two standpofnts: (a) the n e c e a a i t y to gain a better understanding of the land phase of the hydrological cycle, and (b) t h e necessity for models t o be used as aids t o decislon-makfng in the planning and management o f water resources. From the former, reeearcharfented standpoint, a rfgoroua approach t o river basin modelling would seek t o formulate, couple and solve the equations of consemation of s M ~ S ,energy and momentuu describing the movement of water over and through the soil, I n etream channels and in aquifers; however, lacking the computational facilit iea to implement such an approach, research hydrologists have Invariably adopted a less rigorous approach where a model has been required t o provide simulations of flow showing good agreement with observed flows, achieved through some model fitting process. In the past, this haa been achieved with models of a quasi-physical/semiempirical nature which have nor recesaarlly increased the understanding of the systems being modelled, nor have the model parameters had a sound physical basis. Only in recent years has it proved possfble t o adopt the more rigorous physics-based approach, thus providing an opportunity t o increase our understanding of catchment/river basin behaviour.

Besidea their r o l e as research tools, hydrological models have came t o p l a y an increasingly important role as decisionlaaking a i d e in water resources planning and management. For example, in evaluating reservoir yield, s t r e d l o w records are rarely long enough t o allow
reliable estimates of yield to be obtained; longer records of rainfall are frequently available and a rainfall-runoff model can be used t o extend the streamflow record, thus providing more information for . reservoir y i e l d evaluation. The increasing use of telemetry in the short-term management of water resource s ys terns now means that hydrological models can be employed as real-tfme flow forecasting t o o l s , while water quality forecasting, also dependent on hydrological model)Sng, is also a developing area of application. The models employed in the above applications are t y p i c a l l y lumped with either a quasi-physical/semi-apitical or black-box structure, and thus requfre historical records of streamflow, as well as of meteorological variables, for their calibration. Hence, they all share the common attribute that if the hydrological response of a catchment or river basin changes, for example, due t o man's activitiee, then there ie no reliable means available of a l t e r i n g the model parameters to reflect such changes, since the parameters are not p h y s i c a l l y baaed +
Thfs report is concerned with physics-based distributed models of catchment/river basin behaviour which, m the one hand, offer the prospect of gaining a better understanding of rfver basin hydrology

and, on the other hand, can occupy important roles in a range of applfcations t o be deffned in Sections 3 and 4 of this report. There is an f n c t e a s i n g amount of concern worldwide about the effects of development and man-made changes on both the water quantity, water quality and erosion/sediment traneport regimes of river basins, and it I s in t h i s area, where such models can provide a r e l i a b l e phyeieal basis for assessing the effects of such changes, that these models promise t o be of greatest practical use, Until now, their uee has been rather fragmented, with a tendency towards the development of models limited t o only one or tw processes and specffic t o a single applfcation. It is hoped in t h i s report t o present a f i r s t approach towards a general me thodology for d i e trlbut ed modelling in hydrology. This w i l l be discussed with particular reference t o SHE, the Systzme Hydrologique Europben. SHB has been developed as a general physfcally based distributed modelling system by the Danish tIydraulics Institute, SOGREAH (France) and the Institute of Hydrology (UK). The structure of the model that l o the basis of SHE is described in Section 5 .

"In p r a c t i c e , if the lumped systems models can serve our purpose, then why should we Bother to i n v e s t i g a t e the more difficult distributed system for any other reason that the satisfaction of our
intellectual curiosity?"
2
Ven Te Chow,

I967

ON THE CHOICE OF A MATHEMATICAL MODFX

There is a stark contrast between the complexity of hydrological r e a l i t y and the important and often pressing practicality of making management decisions based on limited knowledge of that r e a l i t y , Knowledge of the real system will be embodied in a collection of perceptions of the system u i t h a l l i t s complex web of variability in space and time. These perceptions w i l l be essentially qualitative in nature and will be based on previous personal experience of observed behadour as well as that recorded in the hydrological literature. We may call this accumulated understanding a perceptual map of the eystem. There is an important distinction between this personal perceptual map and what actually goes on in the real world, a distinction which implfes that the perceptual map is both inherently subjective and capable of continued improvement.

However, decision-making processes require methematical models that are rigorously d e f i n e d and capable of producing quantitative estimates of the behavfour of the real world system* The d e f i n f t i o n of such a model w i l l necessitate considerable simplification of the perceptual map, and i n particular an important change of scale. Qualitatively we may distinguish changes in hydrological processes and variables a t very small space and time scales, whereas for management decisions w e often require bulk eatfmates (even i f in s s p a t i a l l y distributed sense) o f the behaviour of the system. It is important t o note that the simplication in the deffnition of a mathematical model and also computational constraints must involve the introduction of further subjectivity. A direct consequence is t h a t :
(i)
(ii)

more than one model or model parameter set may give equally good results ; different models may rats more or less highly in different
application^;

( i l l ) complex models may not necessarily g i v e better results than simpler ones.

There are many ways of classf fying hydrological models (see Clarke, 1973) but for present purposes we may distinguish models that treat a catchment as a - s p a t i a l l y bariable system (distributed models) or only fn terms of average quantities over the catchment area (lumped models). Lumped models rely primarily on comparison between observed and simulated catchment outflowe for calibration of the model parameters, and may in fact be based s o l e l y on the techniques of systems anafysia in relating input t o output without reference t o the i n t e r n a l mechanisms of the catchment (eg the constrained l i n e a r systems model of Todinf and Wallis, 1977, or the transfer function models of Box and Jenkins, 1970.

There I s a large number of lumped models which represent hydrological processes by different functional forms defined intuitively. These models are commonly tefmed 'conceptual ' models in hydrology although all models muet be coneide red as conceptual cons truc tione. In that the parameters of lumped 'conceptual' models must be averages over the catchment area, the derivation of such parameters must then be dependent on curve fitting techiques to match simulated predictions wf th obeervations. This require& a period of historical data to be available for model calibration and implies that physical Interpretation of parameter values must then be made with c a r e * A classic mdel.of t h i s type is the Stanford Watershed Mdel (Crawford and Linsley, 1962) and its derivatives. However, the poasibilitles of subjectivity in the definition of such models are evidenced by the plethora of modela of this type (see for instance Fleming, 1975).

A major category of dietributed models is that in which the models are physically-based in the Bense of being defined in t e r m of Physically-based models theore ticaliy-acceptable continuum equat ione are thue descriptive in the sense that the main o b j e c t i v e is t o represent the behaviour of a physical process, often with the object of gaining a better understanding of that process. InseinctiveTy, it would be expected that physically-based models would provide sirnulatione that are in some way better than other models In that they must reflect more closely our perceptual map of the real world. It must be stressed, however, that the distinctions between types of model dram here is not clear c u t . In particular, the mathematical definition of physically-based models f a often such that analytical solutions t o the equations cannot be found and resort must be had to approximate numerical solutions based on a finite difference or finite element discretieation of the space and time dimensions. Such modele, in t h i a case, also involve a degree of 'lumping' of catchment processes at the model grid ecale, a scale that will o f t e n be larger (because of computational limitations) than a scale ehsracteriatie of the operation of the hydrological processes. Secondly, physically-based models are usually based on process 'laws1 that are essentially empirically based (eg Aarcy's Law or the uniform flow equa tionr auch as the Manning or Darc y-We1 sbach equations). There remains therefore considerable scope for subjectivfty in the d e f i n i t i o n of physically-based d i s t r i b u t e d models. However, the important dff ference from the l m p e d 'conceptual' modele 1s that the relationships used may be validated by process measurements in t h e f i e l d , and improved over time as a result of experiments in the same way a8 other scientific laws. Thuq physically-based distributed models have parameters that are in principle meahrable In the f i e l d ,

There is, in a d d i t t o n , a class of semi-distributed models of varying degrees of theoretical acceptability that bridge the gap between the lumped models and the f i l l y distributed ph;sicalli-baaed models. These modela use conceptual functional relationships for different hydrological processes a p p l i e d t o a number of relatively homogeneous subareas of the catchment treated aa lumped units. They are essentially an extension of lumped 'cooceptualt models t o tho semi-distrfbuted case and are t o some extent subject to similar limitations. While some of these models can be a p p l i e d on the basis of field measured parameters alone (eg Beven and Kirkby, 1979) it I s more usual for the models, which remain relatively simple, t o be calibrated by o p t i m i s a t i o n against an observed discharge record (eg

Mein et al, 1974; Knapp e t al, 1975; h e and Iklleur, 1976; Solomon and Gupta, 1977; Boyd et al, 1979). These models do, nonetheless, allow additional. hydrological, soil and vegetation data t o be incorporated into the callbratton procesa.
The above classification of hydrological models has been based mainly on a consideration of model structure. A further classification may be made into determinietic and stochastic models. This depends largely on whether the model parameters and or model outputs are considered to be t o tally error-f ree (deterministic) ox s u b j e c t to error (stochastic) lumped models that are d e t e r m i n i s t i c in concept (eg the unft hydrograph) often haw an i m p l i c i t stochastic structure (see Clarke, 1973). Fox the case of physically-based models that are deterministic in operation and haw parameters that can be measured in the f i e l d , the classification w i l l depend on whether these measurements are without error (a deterministic model) or subject to error (a stochastic model). In the case where the required parameters are measured without error, a atochastlc classification for the model map still result i f , when made1 predictions are compared with obsemationa, errors are observed. If the errore are due t o the fact t h a t the model is not a perfect facsimile of the real world, then it should be clasaed as etochastfc. I f , however, the only source of error i s due to measurement errore in the model inputs then the source of stochasticfty lies essentfslly outside the model which should then be classified as deterministic. In practfce of course it is impossible t o separate sources of error, but i t w i l l generally be true that most models, including those that are deterministic in operation, will have an implied stochastic component. This s t r i c t definition i s often relaxed so that models are referred to a8 deterministic if they are determinietic in operation alone. Underlying the uee of detenninfstic models is an assumption that the resolvable (deterministic) component of a process dominates the unresolvable (stochastic) part to the extent that a deterministic simulation can provide meaningful forecasts of system behaviour.
Given the wide range of hydrological models a v a i l a b l e , the choice o f a model for a particular problem is never a simple one, and will inevitably be based on economic constraints and personal preferences> as well ae purely hydrological considerations. Data availability is o f t e n a crucial factor in such a decision. However, any general criteria for model choice should be based on matching the requirements of a management problem w i t h the complexity of the model used. Modelling hydrological systems is an a c t i v i t y that is, in rnany applications, governed by a law of dfmfnishing returns* Very s i m p l e models can of ten provfde a useful, if not neceesatily adequate, representation of the system and the benefits that derive from additional complexity may not warrant the corresponding increase in costs. Thus, f f a problem requirea a model to extend catchment dfscharge records from a longer rainfall record, i t may be s u f f i c i e n t to use a lumped model and probably would not ma& sense t o use a complex distributed model demanding far greater resources. On the other hand, i f i t is necessary t o p r e d i c t the e f f e c t s of localised land use change then it is necessary t o use a distributed physically-based model in which the changes in catchment characteristics can be d i r e c t l y r e f l e c t e d i n changes in the model parameters

There are further reasons for chooeing physically-based distributed hydrological models in preference t o lumped models. In particular, distributed models allow much readily available d a t a t o be incorporated d i r e c t l y into the model. For example, one of the moat important character is tice determining the hydrologic response of a catchment must be the nature of the catchment topography. Yet, topography is very o f t e n completely ignored I n the formulation of lumped 'conceptualv models. In add5 t i o n there is ample evidence t h a t , due t o topography and the variability of soils and vegetation, the response of catchments is non-linear and spatially variable, both within and between storm periods (see review by t l e w l e t t , 1974; Freeze, I974 and Dunne, 1978). Such variability w i l l be reflected In the predictions of a distributed and physically-based model. In addition, physically based models may overcome eome of the problems posed by the prediction of extreme events that are n o t represented in h i s t o r f c a l r a i n f a l l or discharge records. The forecasts of lumped models in eases that are beyond the range of the records used for calibration, must be open t o d0ub.t. Providing that the assumptions underlying a physically-based model are not invalidated under extreme conditions, forecaate of extreme response should be theoretically more acceptable. It is expected that the sound theoretical basis of rheos models w i l l be the p r i n c i p a l reason for a more extensive application of distributed models.

"Nearby is the graceful l o o p of an old dry creek bed, The new creek bed is ditched straight as a ruler; it has k e n runcurledf by the county engineer t o hurry the runoff. On the h i l l in the background are contour& s t r i p crops; they have been 'curled' by the erosion engineer to r e t a r d the runoff. The water must be confused by so much advice". ~ l d L o eopld The Sand County Almanac,

3.

ON THE NEED FOB PHYSICALLY BASED DISTRIBUTED MODELS IN HYDROLOGY

There are four (related) areaa for whfch physfcally-based s p a t i a l l y distributed hydrological models can f u l f i l the needs of practical applications: catchment changes; spatially variable inputs and outputs; the movement of pollutants and sediment through a catchment and forecasting the hydrological reaponae of ungauged catchents, In each case alternative methods exist and these will be d i s c u e s d below i n relation t o thc distributed modelling approach. In a d d i t i o n , some further benefits of physically-based models are
diacueaed.

3 . 1

Catchment changes

This category covers a l l foma of hydrologically effective changes in catchment characteristics, includfng both natural and man-made changes (but not the external problem of changes in natural inputs t o a catchment). Such changes include land use changes due t o the effects of forest management, urbanisation, forest clearance for agricultural purposes, the effectr of forest fires, e t c . Such changes are almoet invariably localised and piecemeal, such that catchment change is a distributed problem. The parameters of a physically-based d i s t r i b u t e d model have direct physical interpretation, and their range can be established reasonably well on the basis of field and laboratory investigations. It follows that knowledge of parameter values can be d i r e c t l y related to catchment c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s such as s o i l type and land use and auch knowledge should be traneferable, wlthfn reason, from area t o area. n u s it should be possible t o p r e d i c t the effects of catchment changes prior to data becoming . available. In addition the localised nature of such catchment changes can be e a s i l y incorporated into the spatially distributed model structure

There are other methods available for predicting catchment changes, in particular usfng lumped 'conceptual' models. The representation of s p e c i f i c hydrologic processes by functional oms in such modefa hae led t o the interpretation of t h e parameter values as quasi-physical quantfties. This h a s resulted in much unguarded optimism ae exemplified by the following quotations:

'A model is not only an excellent exploratory tool but also a direct aid t o creative thinking. Potentially I t can provide answers regarding the sensitivity of the total system t o changes in certain parameters and the amount of change needed t o achieve a desired result' (Rfley e t a l e , 1968, p . 2 7 ) ;
'Any a c t f v i t y of man which may change the watershed can be measured or p r e d i c t e d and again related to the model parameters

used, and a new flow sequence can be simulated. The planner will then have a quantitative estimate of marginal hydrologic change to uae, an estimate of a degree of precision never before poseiblet (James, 1972, p . 305);

' Other changes such as vegetation manipulation, forest fires, soil conservation techniques s t c can be p r e d i c t e d if data for c a l i b r a t i o n are available. Where adequate rainfall and streamflow exist ordinary calibration techniques w i l l define the amount of the change and the mechanism through which i t works ' (Hydrocamp, 1971, p. 4-2).
It must be stressed that these authors overstate the case for lumped tconceptualt models. It is dangerous t o interpret the degree of mathematical equivalence with observed catchment hehaviour achieved by such models in terms of physical significance, particularly in the analysis of catchment changes. Lumped parameter values should not be taken as having sighificance outside t h e model structure (Nash and S u t c l i f f e , 1970), and the transfer of parametric information over time or space to different model applfcatione muet be considered extremely

hazardous.
3.2

Spatially variable input8 and outputs

In t h a t lumped catchment models can deal wly with quantities averaged over the catchment area, i t is necessary to use a distributed catchment model when there is significant spatial variability in catchment inputs and outputs. Particular examples are the movement o f rainetonns over a catchment (Surkan, 1974, Urlson e t al, 1 9 7 9 ) and localised river and groundwater abstract i o n s and recharge. Such spatial variability is handled e a s i l y by distributed models, provided that suitable input d a t a are available. It may be that technical developments such aa r a i n f a l l meaeurement by radar and other remote senaing techiques w i l l provide such data in a form directly usable by distributed models.
3.3

The movement of w l l u t a n t e and sediment

Water provides a supply, transport and dispersion mechanism for pollutants and sediment, and since most water quality problems are distributed in nature, distributed models ate therefore most suitable to provide the basic hydrological input t o predictions of water quality (see for instance, Bresler, 1973; Brazil e t al,, 1977; Nelson, 1978; Selim, 1978). Again there are alternative methods for making such predict ions, Water q k l i t y modelling can be approached using systeme analysis input/output techniques provided that data are available for calibration of a model. Indeed the complexity of water quality interactions makes this an attractive alternative when such d a t a are available, provided that the sys tern is relatively atat lonary over both calibration and forecasting periods, Lumped 'conceptual' models have also been used t o make quality predictions. An enhanced v e r s i o n of the Stanford Watershed Model has been used to predict the movement o C rad l o a c t i v e aerosols through a catchment (Huff and Kruger , 1967). It would seem that this case of non-point pollution, in which the quality variable may be consfdered as uniform over an area, 1s much more amenable t o lumped modelling than the case of spatially variable inputs. In fact it i a difficult t o see how localised Bources of p o l l u t a n t s or sediment can be successfully handled by spatially averaged models except I n t h e caae of one or two recurring sources.

3,4

Predictton of t h e hydrological responses of ungauged catchments

The possibility of using physically-based distributed models for predicting the responses of ungauged catchments arf ses d i r e c t l y from t h e p h y s i c a l significance of the model parameters. Sfnce it is p o s a i b l e to e s t a b l i s h reasonable ranges Eor the parameters on the b a s i s of intensive, short-term field investigations, such models can be used t o generate at least approximate hydrological predicrions without the benefit of long concurrent records of precipitation and streamflow for calibration. I n fact any information on the characterlstiee and hydrology of a catchment that is readily available can usually be incorporated in the modellfng process.
Most alternative methods for making predictions on ungauged catchments rely on the use of statistical regression of the model parameters against catchment characteristics using parameters calibrated on gauged catchments. The regression equations may then be used to p r e d i c t parameter values for ungauggd catchments. Such analyses have been made both for unit hydrograph models (NERC, 2975) and more complex conceptual models (Ross, 1970; James, 1972; Jarboe and Haan, 1 9 7 4 ) . I n view of some of the d i f f f cult ies of calibrating conceptual models (see for example, Ibbitt, 1972) there are obvious dangers in this approach which neceaearily only crudely approximates the causes of variability between catchments by the use of surrogate variables in the regression equations. Same further benefits of distributed physfcally-based m o d e l s
D i s t r i b u t e d models of water Flow can provide information for a variety of linked problems, some of which, such as estimating consolidation or subsidence, may be directly coupled to the solutton of the flow problem (see for instance, Corapcioglu and R tutsaert , 1977; Naraslmhan and Witherspoon, 1978). Other problems nay be less d l r e c t l y linked, for example the prediction of pore pressures in slope stability s t u d i e s (eg Hodge and Freeze, 1 9 7 7 ) and the water quality problems discussed above. Other interactions w i t h d e t e r m i n i s t i c hydraulic models may be expected t o develop.
The use of physically baaed models focusses attention on the inadequacy of the hydrological data upon which many water resources management d e c i s i o n s are based. B y considering the uncertainties in the parametric data explicitly, estimates of the resultant uncertalnty in the p r e d i c t e d hydrology can be made. A t present this process is a t a relatively crude level in applications of complex catchment models, generally involving a sensitivity analysis d t h i n an expected range of estimated parameter values. However, present s t u d i e s i n v o l v i n g one or two processes (see Section 4 ) show that the available techniques may be expected t o become considerably more sophlst lcated. This type of sensitivity analysis should a i d the management process in both providing estimates of the uncertalnty in hydrological predict ions and in suggesting how additional expenditure in the field detenninatlon of parameter values might he used most b e n e f i c t a l l y . This may become one of the most important uses of physically-based simulation models.

' A s Scientists w e are i n t r i g u e d by the possibility of pssembling o u r concepts and b i t s of knowledge into a n e a t package to show t h a t we do, a f t e r a l l , understand our science and i t s complex

interred a t e d phenomena *

W M Kohler, J969.

4.

ON THE CURRENT STATUS O F DISTRIBUTED MODELLING OF CATCHMENT

HYDROLOGY

The development and application of d i s t r i b u t e d modelling in hydrology has been very fragmented. There have been numerous papers on the theoretical aspects of modelling various hydrologic processes independently using both analytical methoda for simple cases and approximate nmerical methods of increasing sophistication. There is a much smaller literature on modela involving more than one process and on the application of distributed model8 to real world problems. It is beyond the scope of this report t o provide a full review of the development of distributed model8 and ue shall concentrate on some general features of distributed modelling with approprfate illustrations from a mall nmber of specific s t u d i e s .

First, consider the catchment as a f u l l y distributed system, continuously variable over time and 3 space dimensions. I t is possible to write down general partial differential equations for the process of mass and energy transfer within the catchment continuum, together with bundaxy conditions for those equations, based on physically realistic assumptions compatible with current kmwledge of hydrological processes. These equations comprise the general distributed model of catchment hydrology (see for example the d i s c u s s i o n s of Freeze and Harlan, 1969; and Freeze, 1978)* The complete system of non-linear equations is impossible t o solve analytically for any case of practical interest and resort m u s t then be made to approximate numerical solutions. Numerical solutions can only be calculated for a finite nmber of points (nodes) in space and time, and the complexities of the system are such that computing conetraints will limit that number of nodes, A consfderable amount of research, mostly concentrated on studies of s f n g l e processes, has been aimed at developing solution methode that are sufficiently accurate but remain efficient in t e r m of computing requirements and t h e dlscretisation of the catchment Into nodes.
The e a r l i e s t solution technique, and atill the most commonly used, is the f i n i t e difference method pioneered by Richardson (1910). Finite difference techniques were f i r s t applied to groundwater flows by Shaw and Southwell (19411, unsaturated f l o w by Klute ( 1 9 5 2 ) and channel f l o w s by Stoker (1957). Finite difference methods have been considerably improved and a wide range of methods is now a p p l i e d q u i t e routinely t o steady s t a t e and transient problems in groundwater and channel routing s t u d i e s . More recently, however, several other methods have been,used in hydrology including f i n i t e element methods (Pfnder and Gray, 1977), integrated finite difference methods (Narasfmhan and Witherspoon, 1977) and the methods of characteristics (Amein, 1966; Wlggert and Wylie, 1976). The applCcation of a 3-dimensional complete catchment model solved by f i n i t e difference methods has been demonst rated on llmi ted hypothe tical problems by Freeze (1971, 1972a, 1972b).

The stage has now been reached where the solution method8 are sufficiently well advanced to give satisfactory results for a wide range of problems, providing that the problem of i n t e r e a t l a -11 posed in terms of the specification of the boundary condition8 and data input t o the model. Many studies have shown that these d i s t r i b u t e d models can reproduce the behaviour of hydrological systems as measured i n the laboratory (eg Ragan, 1966; Tang and Skaggs 1977; Haverkamp e t a l , 1977; Luthin e t al., 1975; Mu~ik, 1974) and in t9ls field h e i n and Fang, 1970; Bresler e t al., 1979; Feddes et al., 1976; Pikul e t al., 1974; Smith and Woolhiser, 1971, although fn complex field situations I t may be d i f f i c u l t t o obtafa completely satisfactory eimulations ( Stephenson and Freeze, 1974).

Now that the basic solution techniques of distributed modelling are well understood there has been a considerable nmber of studies e s s e n t i a l l y filling i n points of detail, There have, for instance, been several compaxlsons of ntrmerical solution techniques (eg Price, 1974; Trescott and Laraon, 1977; Fhavertcamp e t a l . , 1977; Hayhoe; 1978). Other uorks have attempted t o increase the generality of the mathematical formulation, often a t the expense of additional complexity. Ekamples axe the inclusion of compaction coefficients (Freeze, 1971; Naraeimhan and Witherspoon, 1976), non-Darcy type f l o w i n ground water flow models (Valker, 19691, inclusion of hysteresis i n unsaturated flow models (Uhfsler and Klute, 1965; Hoa e t al., 1977; Gieaal e t al., 1973; Lees and Watson, 1975) and alternative flow relationships for upland channel flows (Beven, 1979b) Further s t u d i e s have examined the effects of using different discretfsations (Hayhoe, 1978; Rushton and Tomlinson, 19771, of different methods of calculating the equation coefficients (Appel, 1976; Haverkamp e t al., 19791, specifying the initial and boundary conditions (Rushton and Weddesburn, 1973; bbrris, 1979; Zaradny, 1978) and stability criteria (eg Young, 1971; S t r e l k o f f , 1970). Methods for reducing the computing requirements of distributed models have also been developed. Some of these methods rely on formulating the solution m e t h d t o reduce the amount of storage required (eg Prickett and b n n q u i s t , 1973; Fread, 1971) and others on decoupliag the f u l l y 3-dimensional problem into a number of one or two dimensional componente, for example the surface flow models of Kibler and Woolhiaer (1970); Engman and Rogowaki (1974) and Ross e t al. (1979); the two dimensional h i l l s l o p e elements of Beven (1977); the models of multilayer groundwater systems ( e g Bredehoft and Finder, 1970); and the structure of the SHE model described in Section 5 below. This decoupling must introudce some additional inaccuracy, particularly f n models such as the kinematic cascade where the complexities of the topography of natural h i l l slopes are represented by 'equivalent' rectangular planes (see l a n e and Woolhiser, 1 9 7 4 ) . However, in models such as the SHE model (see Figure 1) the loss of accuracy compared w i t h an equivalent 3-dimensional model may be small and a finer d i s c r e t i s a t i o n may be handled on current computers, so a s t o allow applicatfon of a complete catchment model t o real catchments. I t must be added that w i t h all approximate solution methods the need for discretisation may itself generate problems in the application t o real world problems, since the grid s c a l e of the model must often neceaearily be larger than the scale at which the hydrologic processes operate. The problem of defining parameter values a t t h e grid scale w i l l be considered further in Section 4.

There has also been recent interest in d i s t r i b u t e d models vfewed as stochastfc models i n the s e n s e d e f i n e d i n Section 2. All the m o d e l s descrfbed above are deterministic in operation and assume t h a t
the true values of the parameters and boundary conditions of the model are known without error. This will rarely, if ever, be true in a p p l i c a t i o n s to real situations and the effect of allowing the parameter values and boundary conditions to be defined stochastically with a non-zero variance has been the e u b j e c t of severs1 s t u d i e s i n groundwater flow (eg Bibby and Sunada, 1971; Freeze, 1975; Gelhar, 1974; Sagar and Kisiel, 1972; Tang and Finder, 1977; Sagar, 1978; Bakr e t al., 1978; Dagan, 1 9 7 9 ) ; overland and channel flow (Chiu, 1968; Machado and OfDonnell, 1979); and a complete hillslope model (Freeze 1980). It is also worth noting that f i e l d observations, on which parameter estimates are based and comparisons w i t h simulated results made, are also subject to sampling and measurement errors. Some studies have shown that the error variance associated with such measurements may be considerable ( s e e for instance Hills and Reynolds, 1969, and Kiesling et al., 1977) and that a i n g l e measurements may not give good estimates -of the spatial average of a variable. T h i s certainly has a bearing on the specification of parameter values at the g r i d scale. This problem w i l l be discussed further in Section 6 but t w p o i n t s seem worth making here.

First, estimates of the variance of parameter values have generally been made on the basis of tntensive spatial sampling programs (eg the log normal distribution of hydraulic c o n d u c t i v i t i e s found by Willardson and h r s t , 1965; Nielsen e t al., 1973; Rogowski, 1972). I t is commonly assumed i n studies of the stochastic nature of p h y s i c a l l y based distributed models that these measured s p a t i a l distributions represent the point sampling distribution of that parameter and that each measurement represents an independent sample from the underlying population. This can only be true i f the s p a t i a l autocorrelation of the parameter is small relative t o the dfstance between samples. If spatial autocorrelation ie significant at the model grid scale, then the spatial pattern of the measurements must be taken into account in the determination of parameter values d e f i n e d a t the grid scale. In this case, the sampling variance associated with the g r i d square parameter values may be smaller than that based on the assumption of independent masurements from a point sampling distribution (see discussion in Bevcn, 1981)

A second, related, problem is that point meaeurements of hydrological parameters are u s u a l l y based on experiments that are small in scale relative t o practical model grid scales (from laboratory cores to small plot experiments). The theory of geostatistics suggests t h a t , for e t a t i c quantities, as the sampling volume of a quantity ( t h e support volume or measurement scale) increases, the sampling variance will decrease (Journel and Huijbregts, 1978; Delhomme, 1979; Burgess and Webster, 1980). A similar relationship between sampling variance and measurement scale can be expected t o hold by analogy for dynamic systems. Certainly, theore tf cal experiments have shown that the calculated variance of the solution output variables from distributed models arising from the variance in parameter estimates, decreases as the number of space dimensions considered increases (see Bakr et al,, 1978; Dagan, 19791, reflecting the compensation for variability that might be expected in the continuous flow system. It should be noted, however, that for non-linear flow systems, the nature of t h i s compensation may depend on

the flow c o n d i t i ~ n, s such that appropriate grid square parameter values may vary over time. The defiaitian of grfd square parameter values, while dependent on the measured point sampling distribution of a parameter, muat be considered as a higher order problem, I n that grid square values w i l l also reflect model structure, model g r i d ecale and spatial structure in the measurements* This whole question of the interactions between hydrological processes, measurement scale, model structure and model parametera requires much further study.

Thie review har necessarily been brfef and incomplete but has attempted t o illustrate the current status of both the technfquee and underetanding of distributed modelling in catchment hydrology. There have been very f e w attempts t o d e l cmpleta catchments in a truly distributed manner except l a caaea where catchment response is damfnaeed by surface f l o w . The methods of diatributed modelling are now sufficiently well developed that data limitations generally outwelgh the limitations of technique in applf cations to the real world. It should then be posaible t o s p e c i f y a catchment model for general use t o gain experience of applications t o practical prablema, A first attempt a t such a model 1s the baais of SllE which is described in the n e x t section.

"We must not omit to take notice of what w e see w i t h our eyes, t h a t w a t e r n a t u r a l l y tends downwards, t h a t it cannot s u f f e r the a i r to be anywherembeneath it t h a t it loves to fill u p every concavity into which it r u n s ; t h a t the mare you endeavour to force it, the more obstinately it struggles against you, nor is i t ever satisfied till it o b t a i n s t h e rest which it desires." Alberti (1404-14721

...

5.

A B RIEF f NTRODUCTION TO THE SHE MODEL

The SHE: model that is the basis of the s y s t & e Hydrologlque ~ u r o ~ g eis n a physically-based dis trlbuted model, determinir tic in operation, that incorporates components for all the m a j o r hydrological processes. The model has been developed from the non-linear partial differential equations of flow for the processes of overland and channel flow, unsaturated and saturated subsurf ace flow, solved by f i n i t e difference methods. The model is c m p l e t e d by point snow melt, interception and evapotranspiration components. While conriderable effort has been made t o ensure that the solutions for each component are accurate and efficient, the structure of the model represents a compromise between the restrictions of computing and data requirements of the model and the need to represent the complexity of real catchments. A description of SHE is given by Jonch-Clausen (1979); only a brief smmary is provided here.

It is not yet economically viable t o produce en operational model that is f u l l y 3-dimensional in space and which will also allow the required accuracy of dfscretisation in both horizontal and vertical planes. On the assumption that, in the unsaturated zone, vertical flow is, on most slopes, far more important than lateral flow the SHE model has been rationally simplified such that independent one-dfmensional unsaturated flow component8 of variable depth are used to link a two-dimensional saturated eubaurface flow component and a two-dimensional surface f l o w component (Figure 1 ) . It is planned to use up t o 2000 grid points in the horizontal and 30 in the vertical t o allow adequate definition of a catchment areal unft.
The application of a model of this type requires considerable i n p u t s of parametric and exogenous d a t a , including parameter values that change over time, for example through the growing Peason of a crop. Such data will not always be readily available and considerable flexibility has been built Into the model t o allow different modes of operatlon demanding different levels of d a t a availability, It is stressed that parameter values are i n p r i n c i p l e measurable in the field and it is hoped that the general availability of a model of t h i s t y p e , w i l l instigate more widespread measurement of the data required, i f not on a routine basis, then a t least as part of the application of the model t o a specific project.

The interceptfon/evapotranspiration component of the model

de tetmines the total evapotranspiration and net rainfall from

meteorological input data. The interception process is modelled using a variant of the Rutter model (Rutter e t al., 1975) and has canopy storage and drainage parameters that can be estimated by experiment (see for instance Rutter e t al., 1 9 7 5 ; Gash and Morton, 1978). There are several modes for the evapotranspiration component .of which the most complex is the full Penman-Monteith equation (Monteith, 1965)

F
R A I N . SNOW

mPRECIPITATION

FIGURE 1 . - a
A

Schematic representation of t h e s t r u c t u r e of t h e SHE model

- DIMLNSIOHAL

SATURATED

FLOW GROUNDWATER MODEL

RECTANGULAR GRID)

which requires aerodynamic and canopy resistance parameters (see for instance Szeicz and Long, 1969; SzeCcz e t al, 1969; Gash and Stewart, 2 9 7 5 ; Tan and Black, 1976). The interception/evapotransplration component i n t e r a c t s directly with the r o o t zone, which 1 s the upper part of the unsaturated zone component. The extraction of moisture for transpiration from the root zone is d i s t r i b u t e d accordfng t o the vertical distribution of roots. Vegetation characteristics and
meteorological i n p u t s t o 'the model can vary from grid square t o g r i d square. A f u l l description and sensitivity analysis of this part of the SHE model is g i v e n in Beven (1979a).

The overland and channel Flow components represent the surface runoff and river f l o w processes. They are m o d e l l e d by finite d i f f e r e n c e solutions to t h e simplified S a i n t Venant equations (with inertia terms neglected). In the modelling of overland flow the s l o p e of the water surface is assumed t o be parallel t o the ground surface (kinematic assumption) but for channel f l o w , a water surface s l o p e term is included in the formulation so that backwater e f f e c t s can be modelled (see Preissman and Zaoui , 1979). T h e overland and channel flow components require parametric d a t a on channel dimension and flow resistance functions for each g r i d square.
The unsaturated flow component uses a finite difference s o l u t i o n of the Richard's equation in a multi-layered s o i l i n c l u d i n g the root zone. A n interacttve solution technique has been a d o p t e d t o cope wlth the important non-lineartties of the flow equation. The unsaturated flow component datermines rates of infiltration end recharge in the
coupling with the surface flow and saturated groundwater flow components. A particular problem associated w t h the structure of SHE is the l i n k between vertical flow i n the unsatu ated zone and horizontal flow in the saturated zone. A s a t i s f q t o r y approach to modelling this transition has been developed (Abbqt et al., 1979). The unsaturated zone solution requires information on the soil moisture and hydraulic conductfvity characteristics, but theae may vary for each soil layer and w i t h soil type in d i f f e r e n t grid squares. The combined unsaturated zonelevapotranspiratfon components have been tested by Jensen and Jonch-Clausen (1981).

The saturated groundwater flow component is, in the f i t s t version of the SHE model, restricted t o a single layer, unconfined aquiEer w i t h direct links t o any surface water b o d i e s . The model is based on an alternating d i r e c t i o n i m p l i c i t finite d i f f e r e n c e s o l u t i o n to the Boussinesq equation. Thfs formula t i o n must ree t f i c t application of t h e model at p r e s e n t , but it fs envisaged that this component will be extended t o cope with multt-layered, confined/unconfined aquifers in the future. The saturated zone model requlres data on the extent and depth of the aquifer together with conductlvfty and storage c o e f f i c i e n t parameters for each g r i d square.
The snow melt component can also he used i n s e v e r a l modes dependent upon data availability. The simpler modes are based on Degree-day and Energy Balance predictions of melt rates, with routing through the snowpack based on the empirical model of Anderson (1968). The most complex form is represented by the f i r a t attempt t o model both the energy and mass flux within a snowpack takLng changes in t h e structure of the pack i n t o account. F i n i t e difference methods are used to o b t a l n simultaneous solutions t o the flow of heat and w a t e r i n the pack (see ~ l o r r i sand Godfrey, 1979; Morris 1982). Snowmelt runoff may he generated e i t h e r at the surface or at the base of the pack.

Factore affecting the accumulation and melting of snow will be reflected in the difference in meteoro~oglcal inputs and parameter values between grid squares.

It is stresaed that a l l the model components, while being phyeically-based as far as possible, rely on empirical equations or simplifying assumptions that are approximations t o the complexities observed in the f i e l d , It is important t o recognise t h a t , while such approximations must be limited in v a l i d i t y t o some extent, they are consistent with present quantifiable knowledge of the physical processes of catchment hydrology, and may be expected t o be improved over time. The modular form of the structure of the SHE model facilitates such changes. Perhaps the most important part of the SHE model is the model ' frame' , known aa the Chef d'orchestre, that links the model components and orders the s o l u t i o n of the components in time. It is the f l e x i b f l i t y of the frame that allows a general methodology of distributed modelling t o be outlined, as is discussed in Section 6 .

"The deterministic simulation approach espoused here is potentially superior to any empirical model t h a t requires less d a t a . If the technique can be shown to have p r a c t i c a l v a l u e , it w i l l encourage increased measurement of the necessary data." Allan Freeze, 1971
6.

TOWARDS A GENERAL METHODOLOGY FOR THE DISTRTBUTED MODELLING OF CATCHHEXT HYDROLOGY

The formulation of the SHE model o u t l i n e d i n the previous section incorporates elements d e f i n e d on the b a s i s of the available (quantifiable) physical knowledge of the catchment system. A t t h i s stage I t has been necessary t o make some simplifying assumptions such as the exclusion of hysteresis effects and lateral unsaturated flows, but providing that the model is not used outsfde the range of c o n d i t i o n s for which its assumptione remain reasonably valid, it is likely that the ef Eects of such s i m p l l f ications will be small in relation t o the l i m i t a t i o n s imposed by the data requirements of the model, Thus the SHE model should provide a suitable b a s i s for a f i r s t approach to a general methodology for distributed modelling (Beven e t al, 1980). However the physical acceptability of the model is only one aspect of a methodology for operational applications. In general,
( I)

the model must be physically relevant t o the system that it represents ;

(2)
(3)

the model should incorporate the information from as much r e a d i l y a v a i l a b l e hydrological and other c a t c h e n t data as possible;
the model should be a b l e t o airnulate a wide range of problems, both transient and steady s t a t e , for s i n g l e processes and combinations of processes up t o the level of a complete catchment system;
the model should be able t o cope adequately with the difference in response times of different processes and with the time variant rates of change due t o d i f f e r e n t meteorological conditions;

(4)

(5)

the model should be able t o cope adequately with non-stationarity in the model parameters due, for example, t o seasonal effects on the vegetation of the catchment ;
t h e m o d e l should be able t o cope with dynamic changes in the component structure of the model for example when the unsaturated zone disappears as the water t a b l e r i s e s t o the surface in varf able source areas

(6)

The f i r s t two criteria should be s a t i s f i e d by any distributed model for which both the undertying theory and the characteristtcs of the solution techniques are acceptable in a given application. It haa been suggested that the SHE model will s a t i s f y these c r i t e r i a over a wide range of hydrological and geographfcal conditions. In additton a considerable part of the e f f o r t expended fn the development o f SHE hae been concerned wlth satisfying the last four criterfa in the specification of the model 'frame' (the Chef d'0rchestye).

The model frame is used to control the input of the catchment specification and the nature of the solution that is required, reconciling the dynamic time step requirements for the individual components and then ordering the solutions for the components w i t h the correct transfer of v a l i d internal boundary data between components. The d e t a i l e d specification of the frame necessitates the achievement of a satisfactory compromise between maintaining s c f e n t i f l c rigour and numerical efficiency. It is obviously neceesary that the transfer of internal boundary data be handled so as to minimise inaccuracies in the maintenance of mass balance, and that the control of time steps be handled t o maintain s t a b i l i t y in the component solutions. The first version of the frame is already operational with some restrictions on the types of solutions that can be handled, but is expected t o be revfsed and extended wet time as experience i n different situations is incorporated.

Given t h e availability of a model l i k e SHE with a frame s u i t a b l e for general application, there are several stages in the application to a specific project, a s follows:
(1) (2)
(3)

(4) (5)

Problem definition Parameter definition Model calibrationlvalidati o n Sensitivity analysfs Scenario evaluation

6 . 1

Problem definition

Perhaps a t t h i s stage, i t is unnecessary t o raise the question of whether a distributed model is really required t o solve a particular management problem wfth its additional complexity, data requirements and computational expense. However, while there will be projects f o r which the choice will be obvious (see discussion in Sections 2 and 31, in many situations it will be much less clear c u t . In such situations it is necessary that the theoretical advantages of distributed models be demonstrated in applications t o f feld problems so as t o overcome the economic advantage of alternatfve lumped models. A t present. i t can be expected that the use of d i s t r i b u t e d models will be confined to projecte s p e c f f i c a l l y requfring d i s t r i b u t e d simulatLons as discussed in Section 3.

In these eases ft is neceesary t o further decide whether transient or steady s t a t e simulations f o r single processes or combinations of processes are required. This w i l l be in part d e c l d e d by the nature o f the problem and the availability of d a t a and resources. It i s obvious that a s i n g l e process, steady s t a t e s o l u t i o n w i l l be much cheaper but will not always provfde a l l the i n f o m a t t o n required. The a i m of a model frame, such as that embodied in SHE, must be t o allow flexibility in the choice of such o p t i o n s , so that L t will certainly be p o s s i b l e t o proceed from a s i m p l e analysis to more complex formulations as appropriate.
A final important p a r t of problem definition is t h e speciftcatlon of appropriate model boundary c o n d i t i o n s . This may i n v o l v e considerable effort, particularly in the case of subsurface flaw s y s t e m s where boundaries may not be c l e a r l y d e f i n e d , or ~ h e r e attention is focussed on a small part of the c a t c b e n t with non-hydrological houndari es

6.2

Parameter definition

The definition of parameter values is of crucial importance t o the applicatfon of distributed modelling, particularly when I t is intended that such models should be used deterministically. Distributed models require the specification of several parameters and parametric functions at each individual grfd equare (see Table 1) leading to large numbers over a catchment area. Temporal changes in parameter values may further increase t h i s number. The problems of defining a l l the individual parameter valuer by separate measurement are immense and it is therefore necessary t o explore the p o s s i b i l i t y of reducing the expense of parameter estimation. Fortunately, the physical basis of those parameter values allows a degree of hope that this may be possible, in that it should be poaeible to transfer parameters measured in one location t o be repreaentative of similar areas elsewhere. Thus n o t only may it be possible t o d e f i n e parameters on the basis of vegetation or eoil type within a catchment (obviously requiring a much smaller overall number of parameter values) but it should also be p o e s i b l e t o tranofer information from studfes outside the catchment of intereet. In addition, the

TABLE I

Typical parameters required for each g r i d element in a d i s t r f b u t e d model of catchment hydrology (as taken from the SHE mode ll

Vegetation

Aerodynamic resistance parameter campy resistance parameter

(may be related to soil moisture in r w t zone}

Topography

M e a n altitude Surface slope

Root d i s t r i b u t i o n w i t h depth Hydraulic conductivity/soil moisture relationship f o r each soil layer Capillary tension/soil moisture relationship f o r each soil layer

Unsaturated zone

Saturated

zone
Overland and

Conductivity in direction of each axis Storage c o e f f i c i e n t (may be r e l a t e d to unsaturated zone solution

Surface roughness or channel dimensions and flow coefficients as appropriate
Snow surface roughness Parameters of hydraulic conductivity/snow water content/snow density/grain s i z e relationship Parameters of snow water tension/snow w a t e r content/snow density/grain size relationship Parameters of effective thermal conductivity/snow density/ grain size Parameters of equilibrium temperature/snow water tension relationship

channe 1 flow
Snow m e l t

application of remote sensing in hydrology will have beneficial interactions with distributed modelling i n terms of providing spatially distributed data and data handling procedures (see for instance Jackson e t a1 1976; Bauer et al, 1978; Schmugge, 1978; Jordan et al, 2978; Jackson and PkCuen, 1979). However, it cannot be denied t h a t a sampling problem remains, as demonstrated by the discussion of parameters as s tochs8tic variables in S e c t i o n 4, T h i s has several implications. First, where more than one estfmste of a parameter value exists, the arithmetic average may not be the most appropriate estimate t o use in the simulation (see for instance Freeze, 1975; Dagan, 1979). Secondly, even where a parameter is easily measured within a l l grid squares, for example topography, there may be no simple way of deffnfng the most appropriate value of that parameter a t the grfd scale, except t o assme that some characteristic average value w i l l suffice. The consequence is that t h e parameters should be viewed as d e f i n e d by some (unknown) distribution rather than as fixed values truly characteristic of an area. The definition of parameter values should be associated w i t h at least a realistic range of p o s a i b l e values, and the sensitivity of simulations t o variations w i t h i n that range should be explored. Ultimately, i t may be p o s o l b l e to reformulate the model equations t o characterise the system at the g r i d s c a l e .
Given an appreciation of these problems of parameter definition is important that the techniques of measurement used should, as far as possible, correspond t o the etructure and scale of the model befng used. Thus, measurements i n the f i e l d are more appropriate than laboratory methods, and coarse s c a l e measurements (such as pumping t e s t s or tube well methods for eaturated conductivity values) are better than point measurements (for example core samples taken back to the laboratory). The aim should be as far as p o s s i b l e to integrate the detafled characteristics of hydrological processes and o b t a i n parameter values characteristic of the overall response of a process. It is likely then that a c l o s e r match between measured values and appropriate grid scale values will be obtained, although the sampling problem ( I n both space and tfme) w i l l never be eliminated. Vandenberg (1977) explicf tly considers the effects -of parameter variability on' the determination of transmissibility parameters by pumping t e s t .
It

The development of tracer techniques may be useful i n this respect. A s one example, the use of tracers i n upland channels has shorn how the complete response of a sequence of pools, r i f f l e s and falls can be fntegrated and used t o d e f i n e parameter values for channel routing (Beven e t a l . , 1979) and lead t o new i n s i g h t s into t h e nature of the bulk characteristics of f l o w , as they change with discharge ( P i l g r i m 1976; Newson and Harrison, 1978) S i m i l a r methods can be used to study overland flow on complex vegetated surfaces (Newson and Harrison, 1978). Tracers have also been used for some time as a method f o r determining groundwater flow parameters though without complete agreement as t o t h e Interpretation of results (see f o r i n s t a n c e Kref t and Zuber , 1978)

A number of f i e l d methods are available for measuring the unsaturated flow properties of s o i l s (see for example H i l l e l e t al., 1 9 7 2 ; Jeppson e t al., 1975, Royer and Vachaud, 1975). The parameters of the interceprion and evapotranspiration component can be obtained

from net r a i n f a l l (see for instance Calder and Rosier, 1977) and micrmeteoroLogica1 aeasurements (Stewart, 1977).
T h e neasurement of parameter values i n the f i e l d assumes a particular importance for dtstributed physically-based modelling. Every measurement serves t o h e l p d e f l n e a correct range for a g i v e n parameter value and w i t h continued accumulation of i n f o m a t i o n may allow specific data deficiencies to be shown up. Each measurement also serves t o some e x t e n t to examine critically the physical b a s i s of the model being applied. While it may be of l i t t l e importance to the application of lumped models that the modeller should have s t u d i e d t h e characteristics of a catchment other than j u s t its rainfall/df scharge record, it I s far more important i n the a p p l i c a t f o n of physf cally-based models.

6.3

Model calibration/valldation

The term model .calibration is here used specifically t o mean the selective improvement of initial parameter estimates by a comparison between observed and simulated hydrologf c a l varf a b l e s . Model v a l i d a t i o n implies the acceptance of a model as an accurate simulator of the real world system, which will also depend on a comparison of observed and simulated behavfour. In the application of a distributed model there may not always be the requisite historical data available for model calibration or validation, A program of data collection should usually therefore be implemented a t the same ti= as the measurement of parameter values, although it is worth noting that measurement and spatial sampling problems also pertain to the collectfon of data to represent observed behavfaur, which can itself, therefore, only be estimated w i t h some error.
The allowance of the p o s s i b i l f t y of calibration of the parameters of distributed models implies that the estimated values may vary from the 'true' model values and that these models are therefore stochastic. However, the number of parameter values required by distributed models poses a difficult calibration problem. Several writers have pointed o u t t h a t the information content of a rai nf all/discharge record alone must l i m i t the number of parameters that can be satisfactorily estimated Ln the application of lumped models. It is true that the calibration of a distributed model can take much more information into account in the calibration process, but it is not known how far this may overcome the problem of the number of parameters t o be estimated,

The calibration or inverse problem has been the subject of considerable study in groundwater modelling. Early solutions relied on trial and error methods t o reduce the difference between observed and calculated behaviour. Subsequently more rigorous mathematical methods Rave been developed (see for i n s t a n c e Garay e t al., 1976; Guvanasen and V o l k e r , 1978; Smith and P i p e r , 1978) including methods that try t o incorporate subjective InEotmation on the nature of the system (Neuman, 1973). Nethods have also been proposed for the i d e n t I f i c a t l o n of reslstance functions in rivers by comparison of observed and computed downstream discharges (Fread, 1975; Recker and Yeh, 1973).

It i s clear, however, that the calibration problem increases In difficulty with increasing complexity of the system, since due t o the integrative nature of hydrological systems, the parameters may exhibit inter-dependence such that changing different parameter values may produce a similar effect. One study that simulated a complex hillslope system at a w e l l Instrumented site (Stephenson and Freeze, 1 9 7 4 ) used t r i a l and error calibration and concluded:

"We recognise that our calfbration is less than perfect, but it is probably representative of what can be attained when a f u l l y deterministic mathematical model is a p p l i e d t o a f f e l d site u i t h a f a i r l y complex, but as always imperfect, set of f i e l d measurements" (Stephenson and Freeze, 1 9 7 4 , p 293). Faced with this situation the success of the a p p l i c a t i o n of physically-based distributed models must depend on defining parameter valuea by a priori estimation of f i e l d measurement alone w i t h i n a suf f i e i e n t l y close range t o the true model value so that the calibration process assumes less significance and observed data can be used to i d e n t i f y s p e c i f i c deficiencies in the m o d e l .
6.4 Sensitivity analysis

The need for an analysis of the s e n s i t i v i t y of model simulations

t o changes in parameter values takes on an increased importance in the

l i g h t of the parameter definition and model calibration problems discussed above. The methods of stochastfc distributed modelling discussed in Section 4 are d i r e c t l y applicable and can give confidence limits around the predicted values of variables due t o variance in the estimates of parameter values However, these methods, and more standard methods of sensitivity analysis (see for instance Vemuri e t a l . , 1969; McCuen, 1973, 1974; Saxton, 2 9 7 5 ; Colman and De Coursey, 1976; Beven, 1979a) have only been applied t o single process systems and extension to more complex syatems may not be easy. The use of approximate sensitivity methode, in examining t h e e f f e c t s of changes in certain parameter values w i t h i n their specified range, remains very important for coupled systems.
The importance of sensitivity analysis in the application of distributed models has been discussed in Section 3.5. It is re-emphasised that t h f s may prove t o be one of the greatest b e n e f i t s of physically-based modelling for which estimates of parameter uncertainty can be obtained independently of the model structure. Sensftivfty analysfs allows estimates of the reliability of determfnistic predictions to be made which, at a l a t e r stage in the management d e c i s i o n process, should be incorporated into the evaluation of risk associated with project designs

6.5

Plannina scenario evaluation

We shall now assume that a model has heen specified and been successfuly validated accordfng t o some criterion of utility. Such a model can then be used in a planning role to Lnvestigate, f o r example, the ef feets of alternatfve development scenarios on the hydrological regime of a river basin. A t t h i s stage t h e p h y s i c a l b a s i s of

distributed models and the possibility of s p e c i f y i n g parameters a p r i o r i , at least wfthin some range, assumes particular significance s i n c e the e f f e c t s of various changes t o the catchment or management s t r a t e g i e s for the hydrologic system can be evaluated by changing the model parameter values. The u t i l i t y of such predictions must be evaluated by comparing the amount of p r e d i c t e d change wfth the sensitivity of the predictions t o the estimated range of given parameter values.

''TO

prophesy is e x t r e m e l y difficult

the f u t u r e

."

especially w i t h respect to

Chinese proverb.

7,

FUTURE PROSPECTS

It is l i k e l y that the future development of improved dietributed modela will remain fragmented, with research aimed a t improving the formulation and solution technique of modela of individual proceases and the coupling between models of component processes. However, the foundations of distributed d o e l l i n g are now sufficiently firmly laid to enable general d i a t r i b u t d models, such as the SHE model described above, t o be made available for more routine application. Successful exploitation of these models will depend on a number of factors but the main scientific criteria t o be satisfied are seen as follows.
(1) The development of techniques to enable both the efficient estimation of parameters t o within sane hydrologically meaningful level of accuracy, and the use of available data for calibration or tuning of the model

The development of a sufficiently flexible frame structure t o (2) enable a wide range of problems to be tackled easily.
( 3 ) The addition of water quality (includfng sedfment) , components to the hydrological model t o extend the range of potential problems that can be tackled by SHE into an area that of ten re.qufres d i s t r i b u t e d predictions. (Such additions are envisaged as a second stage of the
SHE project).

(4) The successul validation of the models (including the validation

of water quality components where appropriate) on a number of real world problems, including problems posed in a water resource management context where data may be expected to be limited, at least
prior to the application.

It should be noted that when the model is used specffically for scenario evaluation a t the destgn phase of a management project, full validat i o n can only take place following the implementation of decisions taken on the basis of model simuLations, This last point is, therefore, a particularly stringent criterion of success, since it will t e s t the theore t i c a l concepts on which these physically-based models rest,
The economics of distributed modelling in the future w i l l depend on frnprovements i n modelling and parameter estimation techiquee, the availability of improved computing techiques such as the more widespread introduction of parallel processors, and improved methods for handling large quantities of s p a t i a l d a t a in model specificatton, calibration and validation. However, it seems likely a t t h i s stage that future developments, rather than leading t o cheaper applications, may enable the present generatfon of relatively crude d l s t r i h u t e d models t o a t t a i n a higher level of sophistication. Indeed the v e r y

availability of the spatially distributed data required by t h i s type of model may require a c r i t i c a l re-examination of the theoretical constructs on which present modela are baaed. T h i s will be particularly important in the area of sensitivity a n a l y s i s which is seen as one of the most important functions of this type of model. The limitations of the hydrological d a t a on which many management decisions are based must be recognized, and should be taken i n t o account in the decision-making process. P t e s e n t physically-based models allow the effects of data uncertainty t o be explored using crude parameter perturbation methods. In the future, improved model formulations and improved knowledge af the spatial variability of hydrological processee and parameters may allow this to be done in a more rigorous and satisfactory m y .

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
We are grateful t o our colleagues on the SHE project a t the Danish Hydraulic I n s t i t u t e , Sogreah and the Institute of Hydrology for comments on an earlier draft of this report.

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32

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llccuen, R.H. 1974. A senslttvtty snd rror anelysla of ptocedurea used foi e6tloatlng evaporetl.od. l,leter Re3oureaBullettn, 10(3), 486-498. Hetn, R.6., laurenaon, E.l,l. end Uc ahon, T.A. 1974. A sl.Dple non-llnear oodel for flood eetloallon. J. Hydreull.cs Dtv. ASCE, 100, 1507. Montetth, J.L. 1965. Eveporetl.onend Envlroiment, S',bp. Soc. Exp. 8to1o8y, 19, 205-234. ltorrie, E,ll. 1979. The effect of lhe sEell-slope epp.oxloetlon end lolrer boundery condltlona on soluliond of the Salnt-Venant Bquatlons J . H y d r o l o S y ,4 0 ( 1 / 2 ) , 3 1 - 4 8 . l{ortla, E.N. and Codtrey, J.C. 1979. Ihe Europeenllydtologlcal SysteD enot' toutlne, ir S.C. Colbeck and l.{. Ray, (Eds), Proc. }todelllng of Soot' Cover Ru$off, CRREL,Henover, lilee Herp6htre, 269. tlot.ls, E.l{. 1982. Sensl.tlvtty of the Europeannydrologtcsl Systeo snoe oodel.s, Proc. SyEp. on HydroloSlcat Aspects of Alptne and Htgh}lountain Areas, IAHS PubL. 138, 221-231. t{uztk, I. 1974. Laboratory erprloente ltlth surface runoff, Htdtaultcs Dlvtsloo, ASCE,100, l{Y, 501-5f6. J.

33

l{er.allhan, l.N, end liltherspooo, dlffetencc uethod for enaltslng Reaourc.. &!earch, l2(L), 57.

P.A. 1976. Atr lntlgreted ftntt. fluld flos ln poroua Eedta, galcr

Nereahhen, T.I. 6nd Wltherspoon, p.A. 1977. ttrEerlc.l Dodel for setureted-unaatureted flor ln deforuble poloua ledie, 1 Thory. llater Rlloulces R.6e.rch, 13(3), 657. Nale.lahrn, T.ll. Iillthcr.pooo, P.A. .!d Edrlrd., A,C. 1978. l(ro.rlcel [ode1 for aaturlted-unaaturated floe ln dafordable roroua ladlr. 2. ft. .l8orttlE. lfstr R..ourc.. R.leerch 14(2), 255. [..h, J.E. .nd &rtc],lffe, J.V. f970. i,.v.r floe conceptu.l lodcls. J. ntdroloSy, 10, 2E2, l{aturll Envlron[ent London 5 vo16. Reaeerch counctl 1975. llood forec.sttnt throu8h

studleg Repoit,

Nelaon, R.l{, 1978. EveluatlnS the cnvlrolllcntel coturequencc3of Srosudvatar conta[r.oetlon, Wstcr Raaourcca Reretch, 14(3), 409-450. Neuu6tr, S. 1973. Celtbretlon of dlatrtbutad paraoeter ground$st! flon lodefu vtered e6 a firltlpla objactlve declalon proce6s uoaler ui|c.rt.lnty. lfeter Re.ourccB RG...rch, 9(4), 1006-1021. lle6on, N.D. atd Errrlaon, J.c. 1978. CtEnoal studles ln the PlFltoon experhental c.tch!at!. Illtituta of Eydrology Raport 47, w.lllqford. t{tel8et, 0.R,, ElSger, J.W. 6nd Erk, K.t. 1973. Sperlal vartebtllty of fleld-oc.dured, prop.rtlar,BtlSerdl'., .oLlirater 42(7), 2t5-260, Ptkul, U.F., Rd6oo, L eod Strc.tr R.L. 1974. A $nertcel oodel bssed on couplad one-dlnenslodal Rlchard! atd Dousslnesq equatlonrt lfet.r R!.ource. R.aeerch, I0(2), 295. PtlgrlB, D.H, 1976. lravel thes rtrd rron-llneertry of flood runolf frcd traccr leaaureienta o[ e ldtll ratctshed] llater Rcaouiced Reseereh, 11(3), 467-{96. Ptndet, C,F. lnd Crry, ll.c. 1977, Flnlta EleEent Slfirlatlon Surface lnd Sobaurface EydroloSyl Acadeol.c Preaa, London.
ln

PrelaaEann, A. end Zaout, J. 1979. L oodule 'Ecouleflent de 6urface" due SysllD. Itydrologlque Europ6er (SHE), Peper pre3ented et l8th IAHRContrera, Cegltart, Itely. Prlee, R,K. 1974. Coopsrtson of four nuierlcaL [ethods for flood routlng. J. llydreultca Dlvlslon, ASCE, too ([y7), 879. Prlckett, T.A. and Lnoqulat, C.C. 1973. Aqulfer sfuulatlon rodel for use ofl dllk supported snall co[puter systeas. Illtrots State l,l6ter Survey, Urbana, Clrculer 114. Regen, R.l{. 1966. l,aboratoty evalugtlon of a nleerlcal flood routlng technlqne for chenneLs sublect to latarel lnflows. lfater Resourcs R e s e e r c h ,2 ( 1 ) , 1 1 f - 1 2 1 .

34

lck, D.C. end l3raelsen, E.R. 1968. watetehed Rlley, J.P., Chsdt slouletlon by electronlc anelo8 co[puter, ln "The Use of Analo8 snd Dlgttsl Cooputers ln flydrolo8y, IAIS hrbn. No E0' 25-37' Rogotrskl, A.s. 1972. wetershed phystc6r sol.l varlebtllty !,tater ResourceaReaeatch, 8(4), f015-f023. crllerla,

Ro.r8, 8.8., Contractor, D.N. and Shanholz, v.D. 1979. A flnlte eleBent uodel of overland and channel floe for a33esa1n8 the hydrologtc lilpeet of lendnl.e ch.o8e, J. HydtoloSy, 41(1/2), lf. odal: the correletlon of Ro6s. c.A. 1970. lte stanford lfet.rshcd piocedur l.lth valuea aelected by a cooputerlaed ?er6oeter of lhe eetetshed. Rcsesrch oeaaurable physlcal cha.ecterlatlcs Itnlversity of lcntucky, Report 35, Tater 8seelch Instltute Lexllr8!on. Rlcherdson, L.F. 1910. lhe epproxldate arllhdetlcal aolotlon by ftnlte dlfferencea of physl.csl probleDs Lnvolvlng dlfferentldl equdtlooa $tth an dppllcetlon to lhe streasea ln s iesonty da!. Phtl Treo3. Royel Soc. S.r16s A,210,307-357. of hyatereala rioyer, J.M. 6nd vachaud, c. 1975. Pteld dter[lnallon i.n sol.l eeter cheracterl.stlcs, soll sclcnce soc. Aoer. Proc., 39(2)' Ruahton, K.R. and Toolioson, L.!1. 1977. PrDlsslble treah spacltg ln J. nydroloSy, 34' equlfer probleo .olved by flolt dtfferenc.3. 63-76. Rushtoo, K.R. end lreddsbutn, L.A. f973. aquifer slDul.stlon. Groundnat.r ff(1), Stertlng 37. coodl.tlons for

Rutler, A.J., ltorton, A.J., Roblns, P.C. 1975. A ptedlctr.ve @del of lnterceptlon ln forests II. relnf6ll Gneiellaetlon of lhe oodel and co perlson wlth obsewetlons ln aooe conlferous erd hetduood 6isnda. J. Applled Eco1o8y, 12, 367-80. sagsr, B. 1978, Gal.erkttt flnLte eleDent ploccdure for an6lysla8 floe throuSh randoo Eedla, lreter Reaource3 Reseerch, 14(6), 1035. Sager, B. and Klalel, C.C. 1972, LlEtts of dcterElnlslle predtctsblll.ty of oeturaled flor equetlon6, ln Proc. 2nd SyDp oo Frrndeoentala of Trenaport Phenoaeoaln Porous lcdte, Guelph, Cenade, rAgR. r, 194-205, Sdxton, K.E. 1975. SenBttl.vtty analyaes of the comblnalloo tranapltatlon equellon. Agttc. l.leteoroloty, 15, 343-353. Schnug8e,T. 197E. Reiote senrlnS of surfece soll ooldture, J, Applted lbtorolo8y, 17(10), 1549-1557. Selt$, H.U. 1978. Ttensport of reactlve rolutes durtng trenslent ungaturatd eatet flou in ultt-layered solk, Soll Sctence, 126(3), t27 . Shev, F.S. and Southlrell, R.V. 1941. Relaxdllon oethodr epplied to Problens reletlng to the bercoletlo! of englneerlnS probleBB, VII. Proc' Royal soc. se;tes A, 178. ffirae tnro,rltr porous oeterlels.

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TanS, D,E. eod Flnder, c.E. 1977. SlDulatloa of grouodeete. floe and 6a5a tfanaport utrder unceital.nty, Mvences h llatel Re6ou!c.3, I(l), 25-30. Teng, Y.F. end Skeggs, R.l.l. 1977. hperloental evaluetlon of theoretlcal aolutlong fot subsurface drdtnage end lrrigatlon. Resourcednesearch 13(b), 957.

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Todini, E. and l,Iell{s, J. 1977. Ustng CLS for ddlly or lon8er pertod ralnfall-ruooff node111n8, 1n ltsthatrstical ltodela for Surf6ce l,leter Hydrology (Eds. T.A. C{rlant, }tal.ooeU. and nallts, J.R.), rttey S Son6, London, 1.49-168. Treacott, P,C. end Larsor, S.p. 1977. Collpetlson of lteietlve for solvlnS 2-d1Den6lona1 groundvatei flow equatlons, lletet Resource6Resedrch, 13(1) , 125, oodI6

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