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Investment Meaning, Nature and Scope
Investment Meaning, Nature and Scope
In finance, the purchase of a financial product or other item of value with an expectation of favorable future returns. In general terms, investment means the use money in the hope of making more money Objective of SAPM To improve decision-making skills in management of investment through better understanding of modern theories on portfolio management and functioning of capital market. To get better return on portfolio with lesser risk
Decision Process
Understand characteristics of good investment decision rules. Decide basis of calculation of return based on required condition. Use constrain to eliminate investment alternatives. Follow decision rules to accept or reject investment opportunity.
SECURITY ANALYSIS & PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT SECURITY :- Investments in capital markets is in various financial instruments, which are all claims on money. These instruments may be of various categories with different characteristics. These are called Securities in market place. Securities Contracts Regulation Act, 1956 has defined the security as inclusive of shares, scrips, stocks, bonds, debenture stock or any other markatable instruments of a like nature in or of any debentures of a company or body corporate, the government and semi-government body etc. It includes all rights & interests in them including warrants and loyalty coupons etc., issued by any of the bodies, organisations or the government. The derivatives of securities and Security Index are also included as securities. SECURITY ANALYSIS
:- Security Analysis involves the projection of future dividend or earnings flows, forecast of the share price in the future and estimating the intrinsic value of a security based on forecast of earnings or dividends. Modern Security Analysis relies on the fundamental analysis of the security, leading to its intrinsic worth and also risk-return analysis depending on the variability of the returns, covariance, safety of funds and the projections of the future returns.
PORTFOLIO :- A combination of securities with different risk-return profile will constitute the portfolio of the investor. Thus portfolio is a combination of assets and/or instruments of investments. The combination may have different features of risk & return, separate from those of components. PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT :- Security Analysis is only a tool for efficient portfolio management. Traditional Portfolio theory aims at the selection of such securities that would fit in well with the asset preferences, needs and choices of the investor. Modern Portfolio theory postulates that maximisation of return and/or minimisation of risk will yield optimal returns and the choice and attitudes of investors are only a starting point for investment decision and that vigrous risk return analysis is necessary for optimisation of returns.
INVESTMENT SCENARIO Investment activity involves the use of funds or savings for acquisition of assets & further creation of assets. INVESTMENT VS. SPECULATION An investment is a commitment of funds made in the expectation of some positive rate of return commensurate with the risk profile of the investment. The true investor is interested in a good rate of return, earned on a consistent basis for relatively long period of time. The speculator seeks opportunities promising very large returns, earned quickly. Speculator is less interested in consistent performance than is the investor & is more interested in the abnormal, extremely high rate of return than the normal moderate rate. Furthermore, the speculator wants to get these returns in a short span of time & switchover to other opportunities. Speculator adds to the markets liquidity as he is frequently turning over his portfolio. Thus, the presence of speculator provides a market for securities, the much required depth & breadth for expansion of capital markets.
:- They are tangible, material things such as buildings, automobiles, plant and machinery etc. B) Financial Assets :- These are pieces of paper representing an indirect claim to real assets held by someone else.One of the distinguishing features of Real Assets & Financial Assets is the degree of liquidity. Liquidity refers to the ease of converting an asset into money quickly, conveniently and at little exchange cost. Real Assets are less liquid than financial assets, largely because real assets are more heterogeneous, often peculiarly adapted to a specific use, and yield benefits only in co-operation with other productive factors. In addition to it the returns of real assets are frequently more difficult to measure accurately, owing to absence of broad, ready, and active markets.
FINANCIAL ASSETS Financial Assets can be categorised according to their source of issuance (public or private) and the nature of the buyers commitment (creditor or owner). Accordingly different financial assets are
DEBT INSTRUMENTS These are issued by government, corporations and individuals & represent money loaned rather than ownership to the investor. They call for fixed periodic payments, called interest and eventual repayment of the amount borrowed, called the principal. The interest payment stated as a percentage of the face value or maturity value is referred to as the nominal or coupon rate. Institutional Deposits & Contracts :- Demand & Time deposits, Certificate of Deposits, Life Insurance policies, Contributions to Pension Funds. Title cant be transferred to a third party. Government Debt Securities :- These are the safest and most liquid securities. The short-term securities have maturities of one year or less and include Treasury Bills with maturities of 91 days to one year.
Long term securities include Treasury Notes (one to ten year maturity) and Treasury Bonds (maturities of ten to thirty years), which bear interest. Private Issues :- Private debt issues are offered by corporations engaged in mining, manufacturing, merchandising and service activities. The most common short-term privately issued debt securities are Commercial Paper. CP is unsecured promissory note from 30 to 270 days maturity. These securities are issued to suppliment bank credit and are sold by companies of prime credit standing. Bankers acceptances are issued in international trade. They are of high quality having maturities from ninety days to one year. The long-term debt contracts cosist of two basic promises- i) To pay regular interest ii) To redeem the principal at maturity.The long-term debts are in the form of bonds, Debentures, Convertible bonds, Mortgage Bonds, Collateral Trust Bonds.International Bonds-International domestic bonds are sold by an issuer within the country of issue in that countrys currency- e.g. Sony Corp selling yen-denominated bonds in Tokyo Foreign bonds are issued in the currency of the country where they are sold but sold by a borrower of different nationality. E.g. A dollar denominated bond sold in Newyork by Sony Corp is called Yankee bond. Yen denominate bond sold by IBM in Tokyo is called Samurai bond. Company Deposits Large corporate time deposits in commercial banks are often of certain minimum amounts for a specified time period. Unlike time deposits of individuals, these CDs are negotiable; i.e. They can be sold to & redeemed by third parties. EQUITY INSTRUMENTS These instruments are divided into two categories one representing indirect equity investment through institutions and the other representing direct equity investment through the capital markets.Investment Through Institutions :- These investments involve a commitment of funds to an institution of some sort that in return manages the investment for the investor. Direct Equity Investments :- Equity investments are either in common stock or preferred stock. The holders of common stock are the owners of the firm, have the voting power, can elect the BOD and carry right to the earnings of the firm after all expenses & obligations have been paid and also carry a risk of losing earnings in case of losses. Common stock holders receive a return based on two sources- Dividends & Capital Gains. Preferred stock is called a hybrid security because it has features of both common stock & bonds.
In the event of liquidation, preferred stockholders get their stated dividends before common stockholders. International Equities :- Foreign Stocks offer diversification possibilities because correlation with domestic stocks is much lower in case of foreign stocks than any other domestic stock. These could be acquired directly at foreign stock exchanges by purchase of depository receipts ( ADRs, GDRs ). International equities face the same currency risks as in foreign bonds. OPTIONS & FUTURES These instruments of investment derive their value from an underlying security (stock, bond or basket of securities). Thus they are so called as derivatives. An option agreement is a contract in which the writer of the option grants the buyer of the option the right to purchase from or sell to the writer a designated instrument at a specified price (or receive a cash settlement) within a specified period of time. Call options are options to buy & put options are options to sell. Financial futures represent a firm legal commitment between a buyer and seller, where they agree to exchange something at a specified price at the end of a designated period of time. The buyer agrees to take delivery and the seller agrees to make delivery. Futures are available either on stocks (stock futures) or basket of stocks (index futures). Futures on fixed-income securities (e.g. Treasury Bonds) are called interest-rate futures.
REAL ESTATE Investments in real estate can be direct one as a owner or indirect as a creditor. Debt participation is also offered by direct acquisition of mortgages or the indirect purchase of mortgage backed securities. Real estate pools that are similar to mutual funds are called Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). They are available for diversified debt & equity ownership in pools of property of various types.
RISK & RETURN Risk in holding securities is generally associated with the possibility that realised returns will be less than that were expected. Some risks are external to the firm & cant be controlled, thus affect large number of securities (Systematic Risk). Other influences are internal to the firm & are controllable to a large degree (Unsystematic Risk).
Systematic Risk refers to that portion of total variability in return caused by factors affecting the prices of all securities. Economic, Political and sociological changes are the sources of systematic risk. Unsystematic Risk is the portion of total risk that is unique to a firm or industry. E.g. Factors such as management capability, consumer preferences, labour strikes etc.SYSTEMATIC RISK Market Risk :- This risk is caused due to changes in the attitudes of investors toward equities in general, or toward certain types or groups of securities in particular. Market risk is caused by investor reaction to tangible as well as intangible events. The tangible events include political, social and economic environment.
Intangible events are related to market psychology. Market risk is usually touched off by a reaction to real events leading to emotional instability of investors. Interest-Rate Risk :It refers to the uncertainty of future market values and of the size of future income, caused by fluctuations in the general level of interest rates. The root cause of interest rate risk is fluctuating yield on government securities. Purchasing-Power Risk :- Purchasing power risk refers to the impact of inflation or deflation on an investment. Rising prices of goods & services are associated with inflation & that falling with deflation UNSYSTEMATIC RISK Unsystematic risk is that portion of total risk that is unique or peculiar to a firm or industry. Factors such as management capability, consumer preferences and labour strikes can cause unsystematic variability of returns for a companys stock.
Business Risk :- This risk is a function of the operating conditions faced by a firm and the variability these conditions inject into the operating income and expected dividends. Business risk can be divided into two broad categories- external & internal. Internal Business Risk
:- This risk is largely associated with the efficiency with which a firm conducts its operations within the broader operating environment imposed upon it. External Business Risk :- It is the result of operating conditions imposed upon the firm by circumstances beyond its control. Govt. policies with regard to monetary & fiscal matters can affect revenues thro the effect on the cost & availability of funds.Financial Risk :- This risk is associated with the way in which a company finances its activities. The substantial debt funds, preference shares in the capital structure of the firm creates high fixedcost commitments for it. This causes the amount of residual earnings available for common-stock dividends more stressed.
RETURN Investors want to maximise expected returns subject to their tolerance for risk. It is the motivating force and the principal reward in the investment process. Realised Return :- It is the return which is actually earned. Expected Return :- It is the return from an asset that investors anticipate they will earn over some future period.Return in a typical investment consists of two components. The basic component is the periodic cash receipt on the investment, either in the form of interest or dividends. The second component is the change in the price of the asset commonly called capital gains or loss. This element of return is the difference between the purchase price and the price at which the asset can be sold.Total Return = Income + Price Change = Cash payments received + Price change over the period Purchase price of assetTotal return can be either positive or negative.
BETA Beta is a measure of non-diversifiable risk. It shows how the price of a security responds to market forces. In effect, the more responsive the price of a security is to changes in the market, the higher will be its beta.
It is calculated by relating the returns on a security with the returns for the market. Market return is measured by the average return of a large sample of stocks, such as stock index. The beta for overall market is equal to 1.00 and other betas are viewed in relation to this value. Measure of beta is helpful in assessing systematic risk and understanding the impact market movements can have on the return expected from a share of stock. Decreases in the market returns are translated into decreasing security returns. Stocks having beta more than one will be more responsive & that less than one will be less responsive to the market movements. Measure of Beta = % Price change of a scrip return % Price change of the Market Index Return
INTRODUCTION
The trend towards liberalization and globalization of the economy has promoted free flow capital across international borders. Portfolios now include not only domestic securities but also foreign securities. Diversification has become international. Another significant development in the field of portfolio management is the introduction of derivatives securities such as options and futures. The trading in derivative securities, their valuation, etc. has broadened the scope of portfolio management. Portfolio management is a dynamic concept, having systematic approach that helps it to achieve efficiency in investment.
building blocks for the construction of a portfolio. According to these objectives and constraints, the investment policy can be formulated. The policy will lay down the weights to be given to different asset classes of investment such as equity share, preference shares, debentures, company deposits, etc., and the proportion of funds to be invested in each class and selection of assets and securities in each class are made on this basis. The next stage is to formulate the investment strategy for a time horizon for income and capital appreciation and for a level of risk tolerance. The investment strategies developed by the portfolio managers have to be correlated with their expectation of the capital market and the individual sectors of industry. Then a particular combination of assets is chosen on the basis of investment strategy and managers expectations of the market.
manager. An investment is to be liquid, it must have termination and marketable facility at any time.
PORTFOLIO MANAGER
Portfolio Manager is a professional who manages the portfolio of an investor with the objective of profitability, growth and risk minimization. According to SEBI, Any person who pursuant to a contract or arrangement with a client, advises or directs or undertakes on behalf of the client the management or administration of a portfolio of securities or the funds of the client, as the case may be is a portfolio manager. He is expected to manage the investors assets prudently and choose particular investment avenues appropriate for particular times aiming at maximization of profit. He tracks and monitors all your investments, cash flow and assets, through live price updates. The manager has to balance the parameters which defines a good investment i.e. security, liquidity and return. The goal is to obtain the highest return for the client of the managed portfolio. There are two types of portfolio manager known as Discretionary Portfolio Manager and Non Discretionary Portfolio Manager. Discretionary portfolio manager is the one who individually and independently manages the funds of each client in accordance with the needs of the client and non-discretionary portfolio manager is the one who manages the funds in accordance with the directions of the client.
POWERS OF SEBI
The Securities and Exchange Board of India has the following powers to control and manage the portfolio managers: 1. The portfolio manager shall submit to SEBI such reports, returns and documents as may be prescribed. 2. SEBI may investigate the affairs of a portfolio manager such as inspection of books of accounts, records, etc., 3. SEBI has full authority in the event of violation of any provision to suspend or cancel the license. 4. No exemptions will be given under any circumstances to portfolio manager.
OBJECTIVES OF INVESTORS
Following are the objectives of the investors: 1. Safety of their investment. 2. Maximum regulation return. 3. Liquidity. 4. Minimization of risk. An investor may decide on the basis of a detailed study of marketing information that the shares he has sold earlier are worth buying again. The current prices may be higher than the price at which he has relinquished them. It is better to buy shares in a rising market than to hold on to shares in a falling market. The growth potential of a company may improve due to the rising trend in sales or profits, modernization and expansion changes in government policies and other such factors.
INVESTORS ALERT
Dos: Only intermediaries having specific SEBI registration for rendering Portfolio management services can offer portfolio management services. Investors should make sure that they are dealing with SEBI authorized portfolio manager. Investors must obtain a disclosure document from the portfolio manager broadly covering manner and quantum of fee payable by the clients, portfolio risks, performance of the portfolio manager etc. Investors must check whether the portfolio manager has a necessary infrastructure to effectively service their requirements. Investors must enter into an agreement with the portfolio manager. Investors should make sure that they receive a periodical report on their portfolio as per the agreed terms. Investors must make sure that portfolio manager has got the respective portfolio account by an independent charted accountant every year and that the certificate given by the charted accountant is given to an investor by the portfolio manager. In case of complaints, the investors must approach the authorities for redressal in a timely manner. Donts: Investors should not deal with unregistered portfolio managers. They should not hesitate to approach the authorities for redressal of the grievances. They should not invest unless they have understood the details of the scheme including risks involved. They should not invest without verifying the background and performance of the portfolio manager.
Systematic risk refers to that portion of variation in return caused by factors that
affect the price of all securities. It cannot be avoided. It relates to economic trends with effect to the whole market. This is further divided into the following: Market risks: A variation in price sparked off due to real, social political and economical events is referred as market risks. Interest rate risks: Uncertainties of future market values and the size of future incomes, caused by fluctuations in the general level of interest is referred to as interest rate risk. Here price of securities tend to move inversely with the change in rate of interest. Inflation risks: Uncertainties in purchasing power is said to be inflation risk.
Unsystematic risk refers to that portion of risk that is caused due to factors
related to a firm or industry. This is further divided into: Business risk: Business risk arises due to changes in operating conditions caused by conditions that thrust upon the firm which are beyond its control such as business cycles, government controls, etc. Internal risk: Internal risk is associated with the efficiency with which a firm conducts its operations within the broader environment imposed upon it. Financial risk: Financial risk is associated with the capital structure of a firm. A firm with no debt financing has no financial risk. The extends depends upon the leverage of the firms capital structure.
various securities. There are some differences between them described as follows: In the case of portfolio management, the target investors are high net-worth investors, while in the case of mutual funds the target investors include the retail investors. In case of portfolio management, the investments of each investor are managed separately, while in the case of MFs the funds collected under a scheme are pooled and the returns are distributed in the same proportion, in which the investors/ unit holders make the investments. The investments in portfolio management are managed taking the risk profile of individuals into account. In mutual fund, the risk is pooled depending on the objective of a scheme. In case of portfolio management, the investors are offered the advantage of personalized service to try to meet each individual clients investment objectives separately while in case of mutual funds investors are not offered any such advantage of personalized services.
in choosing the shares. The portfolio managers will generally have to classify the investors based on capacity and risk they can take and arrange appropriate investment. Thus portfolio management plans successful investment strategies for investors. Merchant bankers also help NRI-Non Resident Indians in selecting right type of securities and offering expertise guidance in fulfilling government regulations. By this service to NRI account holders, Merchant bankers can mobilize more resources for the corporate sector.
PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT BY CORPORATES Investors, whose objective is maximization of their wealth, own Corporates. Corporate ownership pattern in India shows that the bulk owners are the financial institutions and mutual funds, LIC, GIC, and other corporates, leaving aside, the FFIs, FIIs and NRIs. The ownership of individual shareholders does not exceed an average to 20-30%. The interest of financial and non-financial institutions and corporates do not coincide with that of individual shareholders who are the true savers of the household sectors while the former categories are only intermediaries. Corporate Managers secure funds from banks, and financial institutions, next only to promoters and hence their interest stands prominent in the minds of the portfolio managers in the corporate business. In case of listed corporate securities, there is no direct dialogue between Corporate Managers and the individual investors, except through the daily price quotation of the scrip on the exchanges. The share price reflects the investors perception of that company, relative to others in the field. The companies generally keep continuous contact and dialogue with financing bankers and financial institutions and not with other categories of investors, in matter of operations. The role of individual investors and remaining categories of investors can have their say only in the Annual general body meetings or other extra ordinary general body meetings, called by the corporate management. The Government and SEBI regulations, the Company law and the Listing Agreement with the Stock Exchange also guide the performance of corporates and their operations. The prudential norms for raising resources, allocation of funds and declaration of dividends, etc., are governed by the Law and Government notifications from time-totime.
PORTFOLIO INVESTMENT BY FOREIGN INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS A country with a developing economy cannot depend exclusively on its own domestic savings to propel its economy's rapid growth. The domestic savings of India presently are 25% of its GDP. But this can provide only a 2 to 3% growth of its economy on annual basis. The country has to maintain an 8 to 10% growth for a period of two
decades to reach the level of advanced nations and to wipe out widespread poverty of its people. The gap is to be covered by inflow of foreign investment along with advanced technology. As per the Development Goals and Strategy of the 10th Plan, which is currently under implementation: "The strategy to achieve a high annual growth target of 8.00% combines accelerated capital accumulation to raise the average investment rate from 24.23% to 28.41% with an increase in capital-use efficiency to reduce the ratio of incremental capital to output from 4.00 to about 3.55. Private sector development, infrastructure development, and increased foreign investment and trade are key to increasing efficiency" The regular inflow of external capital investment is indispensable to sustain our economic growth at the planned level and this is well recognized by the plan document itself. When remittances are made by Foreign Institutional Investors for portfolio investments, such remittances are on trading account, as securities can be bought, as well as sold back through approved stock exchanges. This may be trading transaction, but net amount at any time (purchases minus sales) is a significant figure and this adds to the foreign exchange reserves of the country. MANAGEMENT OF INVESTMENT PORTFOLIOS Investment Management or Portfolio Management deals with the manner in which investors analyze, select and evaluate investments in terms of their risks and expected returns. It is both an art and a science. The art aspect derives from the notion that some investors, by whatever means, have the ability to consistently pick up investments that outperform other investments on a risk/expected-return basis. Although many techniques have been developed to assist investors in the selection of investments, the concept of market efficiency maintains that for most investors, the ability to consistently select high-return/low risk investments may be difficult to do. An efficient market is one where prices reflect a given body of information. In such a situation, one investment should not persistently dominate another in terms of risk and expected return. In other words, markets are said to be efficient if there is a free flow of information and market absorbs this information quickly. James Lorie has defined the efficient security market as, the ability of the capital market to function, so that the prices of securities react rapidly to new information. Such efficiency will produce prices that are appropriate in terms of current knowledge, and investors will be less likely to make unwise investments. This brings to the science aspect of portfolio/investment management. If markets are reasonably efficient in a risk/expected-return sense, investors objective should be to choose their preferred levels of risk and expected return and to diversify as easily as possible to meet their investment goal. As a consequence, portfolio management has become very analytical. Various techniques are today available which enable investors to identify the diversified portfolio that has the highest expected return at their preferred level of risk. PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORK
Investment management, also referred to as portfolio management, is a complex and a dynamic process or activity that may be divided into various phases as described as follows:
OBJECTIVES
Return requirements: Return is the primary motive that drives investment. It is the reward for undertaking the investment. The commonly stated investment goals are income, growth and stability. Since income and growth represent two ways through which income is generated and stability implies containment or elimination of risk. But investment objectives may be more clearly expressed in terms of returns and risk. However, return and risk go hand in hand. An investor would primarily be interested in a higher return (in the form of income or capital appreciation) and lower level of risk. So he has to bear higher level of risk in order to earn high return. How much risk he would be willing to bear to earn a high return depends on his risk disposition. The investment objective should state the investor the preference of return in relation to risk.
Specification of investment objectives can be done in following two ways: Maximize the expected rate of return, subject to the risk exposure being held within a certain limit (the risk tolerance level). Minimize the risk exposure, with out sacrificing a certain expected rate of return (the target rate of return). An investor should start by defining how much risk he can bear or how much he can afford to lose, rather than specifying how much money he wants to make. The risk he wants to bear depends on two factors: a) Financial situation b) Temperament To assess financial situation one must take into consideration: position of the wealth, major expenses, earning capacity, etc and a careful and realistic appraisal of the
assets, expenses and earnings forms a base to define the risk tolerance. After appraisal of the financial situation assess the temperamental tolerance of risk. Risk tolerance level is set either by ones financial situation or financial temperament which ever is lower, so it is necessary to understand financial temperament objectively. One must realize that risk tolerance cannot be defined too rigorously or precisely. For practical purposes it is enough to define it as low, medium or high. This will serve as a valuable guide in taking an investment decision. It will provide a useful perspective and will prevent from being a victim of the waves and manias that tend to sweep the market from time to time. Risk tolerance: Risk refers to the possibility that the actual outcome of an investment will differ from its expected outcome. More specifically, most of the investors are concerned about the actual outcome being less than the expected outcome. The wider the range of possible outcomes, the greater is the risk. It all depends on the investor, how much risk he is able to bear. If he is willing to bear high risk, he is expected to get high return and if he is willing to bear low risk, he will get low return.
market mutual fund schemes. Referred to broadly as cash, these instruments have appeal, as they are safe and liquid. Bonds: Bonds or debentures represent long-term debt instruments. They are generally of private sector companies, public sector bonds, gilt-edged securities, RBI saving bonds, national saving certificates, Kisan Vikas Patras, bank deposits, public provident fund, post office savings, etc. Stocks: Stocks include equity shares and units/shares of equity schemes of mutual funds. It includes income shares, growth shares, blue chip shares, etc. Real estate: The most important asset for individual investors is generally a residential house. In addition to this, the more affluent investors are likely to be interested in other types of real estate, like commercial property, agricultural land, semi-urban land, etc. Precious objects and others: Precious objects are items that are generally small in size but highly valuable in monetary terms. It includes gold and silver, precious stones, art objects, etc. Other assets includes like that of financial derivatives, insurance, etc. Conventional wisdom on Asset Mix: The conventional wisdom on the asset mix is embodied in two propositions: Other things being equal, an investor with greater tolerance for risk should tilt the portfolio in favor of stocks, whereas an investor with lesser tolerance for risk should tilt the portfolio in favor of bonds. This is because, in general, stocks are riskier than bonds hence earn higher return than bonds. Other things being equal, an investor with a longer investment horizon should tilt his portfolio in favor of stocks whereas an investor with a shorter investment horizon should tilt the portfolio in favor of bonds. This is because the expected rate of return from stocks is very sensitive to the length of the investment period; the risk from stock diminishes as investment period lengthens. The fallacy of Time Diversification: The notion or the idea of time diversification is fallacious. Even though the uncertainty about the average rate of return diminishes over a longer period, it also compounds over a longer time period. Unfortunately, the latter effect dominates. Hence the total return becomes more uncertain as the investment horizon lengthens. 3. FORMULATION OF PORTFOLIO STRATEGY: After selection of asset mix, formulation of appropriate portfolio strategy is required. There are two types of portfolio strategies, active portfolio strategy and passive portfolio strategy. ACTIVE PORTFOLIO STRATEGY: Most investment professionals follow an active portfolio strategy and aggressive investors who strive to earn superior returns after adjustment for risk. The four principal vectors of an active strategy are: Market Timing Sector Rotation Security Selection Use of a specialized concept
Market timing: This involves departing from the normal (or strategic or long run) asset mix to reflect ones assessment of the prospects of various assets in the near future. Suppose an investors investible resources for financial assets are 100 and his normal (or strategic) stock-bond mix is 50:50. In short and intermediate run however he may be inclined to deviate from long-term asset mix. If he expects stocks to out perform bonds, on a risk-adjusted basis, in the near future, he may perhaps step up the stock component of his portfolio to say 60 to 70 percent. Such an action, of course, would raise the beta of his portfolio. On the other hand, if he expects the bonds to outperform stocks, on a risk-adjusted basis, in the near future, he may set up the bond component of his portfolio to 60 to 70 percent. This will naturally lower the beta of his portfolio. Market timing is based on an explicit or implicit forecast of general market movements. The advocates of market timing employ a variety of tools like business cycle analysis, advance-decline analysis, moving average analysis, and econometric models. The forecast of the general market movement derived with the help of one or more of these tools are tempered by the subjective judgment of the investor. Often, of course, the investor may go largely by his market sense. Sector Rotation: The concept of sector rotation can be applied to stocks as well as bonds. It is however, used more commonly with respect to stock component of portfolio where it essentially involves shifting the weightings for various industrial sectors based on their assessed outlook. For example if it is assumed that cement and pharmaceutical sectors would do well compared to other sectors in the forthcoming period, one may overweight these sectors, relative to their position in market portfolio. With respect to bonds, sector rotation implies a shift in the composition of the bond portfolio in terms of quality, coupon rate, term to maturity and so on. For example, if there is a rise in the interest rates, there may be shift in long term bonds to medium term or even shortterm bonds. But we should remember that a long-term bond is more sensitive to interest rate variation compared to a short-term bond.
Security Selection: Security selection involves a search for under priced securities. If an investor resort to active stock selection, he may employ fundamental and or technical analysis to identify stocks that seems to promise superior returns and overweight the stock component of his portfolio on them. Likewise, stocks that are perceived to be unattractive will be under weighted relative to their position in the market portfolio. As far as bonds are concerned, security selection calls for choosing bonds that offer the highest yield to maturity at a given level of risk. Use of a specialized Investment Concept: A fourth possible approach to achieve superior returns is to employ a specialized concept or philosophy, particularly with respect to investment in stocks. As Charles D. Ellis words says, a possible way to enhance returns is to develop a profound and valid insight into the forces that drive a particular group of companies or industries and systematically exploit that investment insight or concept. Some of the concepts of investment practitioners are as follows:
Growth stocks Value stocks Asset-rich stocks Technology stocks Cyclical stocks
The advantage of cultivating a specialized investment concept or philosophy is that it will help you to: a) Focus efforts on a certain kind of investment that reflects ones abilities and talents b) Avoid the distractions of pursuing other alternatives c) Master an approach through sustained practice and continual self-critique. As against these merits, the great disadvantage of focusing on a specialized concept is that it may become obsolete. The changes in market may cast a shadow over the validity of the basic premise underlying the investment philosophy. PASSIVE PORTFOLIO STRATEGY: The passive strategy rests on the tenet that the capital market is fairly efficient with respect to the available information. The passive strategy is implemented according to the following two guidelines: Create a well-diversified portfolio at a predetermined level of risk. Hold the portfolio relatively unchanged over time, unless it becomes inadequately diversified or inconsistent with the investors risk-return preferences. 4. SELECTION OF SECURITIES: The following factors should be taken into consideration while selecting the fixed income avenues: SELECTION OF BONDS (fixed income avenues) Yield to maturity: The yield to maturity for a fixed income avenue represents the rate of return earned by the investors if he invests in the fixed income avenue and holds it till its maturity. Risk of default: To assess the risk of default on a bond, one may look at the credit rating of the bond. If no credit rating is available, examine relevant financial ratios (like debt-to-equity ratio, times interest earned ratio, and earning power) of the firm and assess the general prospects of the industry to which the firm belongs. Tax Shield: In yesteryears, several fixed income avenues offered tax shield, now very few do so. Liquidity: If the fixed income avenue can be converted wholly or substantially into cash at a fairly short notice, it possesses liquidity of a high order. SELECTION OF STOCK (Equity shares) Three board approaches are employed for the selection of equity shares: Technical analysis
Fundamental analysis Random selection Technical analysis looks at price behavior and volume data to determine whether the share will move up or down or remain trend less. Fundamental analysis focuses on fundamental factors like the earnings level, growth prospects, and risk exposure to establish the intrinsic value of a share. The recommendation to buy, hold, or sell is based on a comparison of the intrinsic value and the prevailing market price. Random selection approach is based on the premise that the market is efficient and securities are properly priced. 5. PORTFOLIO EXECUTION: The next step is to implement the portfolio plan by buying or selling specified securities in given amounts. This is the phase of portfolio execution which is often glossed over in portfolio management literature. However, it is an important practical step that has a significant bearing on the investment results. In the execution stage, three decision need to be made, if the percentage holdings of various asset classes are currently different from the desired holdings.
with their target value. For example, if the desired mix of stocks and bonds is say 50:50, the constant mix calls for rebalancing the portfolio when relative value of its components change, so that the target proportions are maintained. The portfolio insurance policy calls for increasing the exposure to stocks when the portfolio appreciates in value and decreasing the exposure to stocks when the portfolio depreciates in value. The basic idea is to ensure that the portfolio value does not fall below a floor level. Portfolio Upgrading: While portfolio rebalancing involves shifting from stocks to bonds or vice versa, portfolio-upgrading calls for re-assessing the risk return characteristics of various securities (stocks as well as bonds), selling over-priced securities, and buying under-priced securities. It may also entail other changes the investor may consider necessary to enhance the performance of the portfolio. 7. PORTFOLIO EVALUATION: Portfolio evaluation is the last step in the process of portfolio management. It is the process that is concerned with assessing the performance of the portfolio over a selected period of time in terms of return and risk. Through portfolio evaluation the investor tries to find out how well the portfolio has performed. The portfolio of securities held by an investor is the result of his investment decisions. Portfolio evaluation is really a study of the impact of such decisions. This involves quantitative measurement of actual return realized and the risk born by the portfolio over the period of investment. It provides a mechanism for identifying the weakness in the investment process and for improving these deficient areas. The evaluation provides the necessary feedback for designing a better portfolio next time.
Objectives of Investors:
The return on equity investments in the capital market particularly if proper investment strategy is adopted would satisfy the above objectives and real returns would be higher than any other saving instruments. All investment involves risk taking. However, some risk free investments are available like bank deposits or post-office deposits whose returns are called risk free returns of about 5-12%. So, the returns on more risky investments are higher than that having risk premium. Risk is variability of return and uncertainty of payment of interest and repayment of principal. Risk is measured by standard deviation of the returns over the mean for a given period. Risk varies directly with the return. The higher the risk taken, the higher is the return, under normal market conditions.
Risk and Beta: Risk is of two components systematic market related risk and unsystematic risk. The former cannot be eliminated or managed with the help of Beta (), which is explained as follows: = % change of Scrip return % change of Market return If = 1, the risk of the company is the same as that of the market and if > 1, the companys risk is more than market risk and if < 1, the reverse is the position. Time Value of Money: In portfolio management and investment decision-making, time element and time value of money are very relevant. Savings are automatic or induced. If induced, it requires a return enough to induce to part with liquidity. Thus, the investors will part savings and liquidity if only their time preference is satisfied by proper return. Compounding: Future Value Factor (FVF) is (1+ r) where (r) is the rate of interest required and (n) is the period of years. Fn = P (1+ r) or Future value = present value x (Future Value Factor) So, the return required by the savers is related to the waiting period, loss of consumption at present, or liquidity and risk of loss of money or variance of returns. Discounting: If the future flow of money is known as C, C2, C3, etc. what is the future value of them and how much is he prepared to pay for them? If he deposits today Rs. 100 he gets Rs. 110 at the end of one year and Rs. 121 at the end of 2 years, if interest rate is Rs. 10%. This process of finding the present value for future money flow is called discounting. Present value of future amounts is: P = F (n) 1 (1+ r)n The multiplier 1 is called PVF or Present Value Factor. (1+ r)n It is necessary to know the amounts of cash flows (Fn), number of years (n) and the required rate of return (r). Perpetuity: When we receive a fixed sum of money every year up to infinity, it is called Perpetuity. Suppose, if a person wants to receive Rs. 1000 and the equation is PV = a r where,
PV is the present value of perpetuity, a is the fixed periodic cash flow and r is the rate of interest. Annuity: Annuity is the constant cash flow for a finite time period of say 5 years (n). Examples of annuity are found in the case of lease rentals, loan repayments, recurring deposits, etc. Application to Portfolio Management: Portfolio Management involves time element and time horizon. The present value of future returns/cash flows by discounting is useful for share valuation and bond valuation. The investment strategy in portfolio construction should have a time horizon; say 3 to 5 years; to produce desired results of 20-30% return per annum. Besides, Portfolio Management should also take into account tax benefits and incentives. As the returns are taken by investors net of tax payments, and there is always an element of inflation, returns net of taxation and inflation are more relevant to tax paying investors. These are called net real rates of returns, which should be more than other returns. They should encompass risk free returns plus a reasonable risk premium, depending upon the risk taken on the instruments/ assets invested.
CONCLUSION
After the overall all study about each and every aspect of this topic it shows that portfolio management is a dynamic and flexible concept which involves regular and systematic analysis, proper management, judgment, and actions and also that the service which was not so popular earlier as other services has become a booming sector as on today and is yet to gain more importance and popularity in future as people are slowly and steadily coming to know about this concept and its importance. I also help both an individual the investor and FII to manage their portfolio by expert portfolio mangers. It protects the investors portfolio of funds very crucially. Portfolio management service is very important and effective investment tool as on today for managing investible funds with a surety to secure it. As and how development is done every sector will gain its place in this world of investment. BIBLIOGRAPHY REFERENCE BOOKS: PRASANNA CHANDRA SECURITY ANLYSIS AND PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT. V.A. AVADHANI SECURITY ANLYSIS AND PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT. S.KEVIN SECURITY ANLYSIS AND PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT. GORDON AND NATRAJAN FINANCIAL SERVICES AND MARKETS. IGNOU MBA COURSE MATERIAL