THERMAL AND NUCLEAR POWER

1.0 POWER GENERATION CAPACITY OF PAKISTAN The total power generation capacity in Pakistan is of the order of 17,457 MW. This includes the hydropower generation capacity of 5,013 MW, thermal power generation capacity of 12,169 MW and nuclear power generation capacity of 462 MW. Based on the present generation capacity the hydro: thermal/ nuclear mix in the country is 29: 71. 2.0 SOURCES OF ELECTRICITY

The main sources of electricity generation in Pakistan are hydel, oil, gas, coal and nuclear. Thermal power is produced using furnace oil, diesel, coal and gas as raw material, all of which are fossil fuels. Thermal and nuclear power are expensive compared to hydel power where the water used is a renewable commodity. Nuclear power has not developed according to expectation in Pakistan due to certain external factors. In 2000-01, the total electricity generated was 68,117 Giga-Watts-Hours (GWh), of which 71.5% was produced from a thermal source.

Electricity Generation by Source

Total = 68,117 GWh 2000-01

Gas 32.0% Coal 0.4%

Nuclear 2.9%

Hydel 25.2%

Oil 39.5%

3.0

POWER DEMAND OF PAKISTAN

According to WAPDAs estimate, the provincial power demands in Pakistan are: Punjab: The current power demand in the Punjab is about 7,027 MW which is expected to rise to 29,103 MW in 2024-25 under the most conservative growth rate of 6.1%. Sindh: The current power demand of 2,642 MW in Sindh is expected to rise to 10,993 MW in 2024-25. NWFP: The current power demand of 1,697 MW in NWFP is expected to rise to 7,018 MW in 2024-25.

Balochistan: In Balochistan, the current power demand of 474 MW is expected to rise to 1,964 MW in 2024-25.

Provincial Power Demands Year 2000 vs 2025

35,000 30,000 25,000
Mega Watts

20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Si nd h Ba lo ch ist an Pu nj ab N W FP

4.0

MERITS AND DEMERITS OF THERMAL POWER THERMAL VS. HYDEL MERITS DEMERITS The cost of power per unit from a thermal power station is much higher compared to hydel and in the longer term, thermal becomes an expensive proposition. Thermal power stations use nonrenewable fossil fuel as raw material. SO2, NOx, Particulate Matter pollution are a big problem from thermal power stations. In case of Pakistan, thermal power production is a burden on the national economy because its raw material has to be imported, which consumes a huge amount of foreign exchange. Thermal power stations do not add towards recreation, aesthetics, wetlands, fisheries, etc

Transmission cost of thermal power is much less compared to hydel power because thermal power stations are located closer to the distribution centers. Thermal power production is more demand-driven and can accommodate daily, seasonal and annual fluctuations and peaking requirements. Thermal power stations can be designed and constructed in relatively less time and therefore, are planned for short/ mediumterm needs. Mostly, thermal power stations do not cause displacement problems. Initial capital cost of thermal projects is relatively less, compared to hydel projects.

5.0

NUCLEAR POWER ASSESSMENT

There are only two nuclear generation centers in Pakistan Karachi Nuclear Power Plant (KANUPP) producing 137 MW of power and Chashma Nuclear Power Plant (CHASHNUPP) with an installed capacity of 325 MW. The total nuclear power capacity is 462 MW, which is only 2.9% of the total generation. KANUPP and CHASHNUPP are the first two nuclear power plant of the Islamic world. Canada supplied the reactor for the heavy water based, Karachi Nuclear Power Plant and a heavy-water production facility in 1972. However, in 1976, it abruptly stopped supplying fuel after which Pakistan started construction of the first uranium-enrichment centrifuge at Kahuta. German and British firms sold vacuum pumps/ equipment and high efficiency inverters for the centrifuge in 1977. China provided assistance and equipment all through for KANUPP and later for CHASHNUP. KANUPP has completed its 30 years life and is now producing only 70 MW due to certain upgradations by Pakistani engineers. Of the total power produced, KANUPP consumes 10 MW for its own operations. CHASHNUPP is being set up by Chinese assistance and is running on liquid fuel. The growth of nuclear plants in Pakistan has been stifled due to international agendas and pressures. Moreover, in the 21st century, nuclear power plants are not considered a very favorable option, due to the huge costs of decommissioning and catastrophes of national scale, in case of accident. 6.0 THERMAL POWER GENERATION PROJECTS

Thermal Power Stations are operated by three institutions: WAPDA operates 11 stations; KESC operates 4 stations; and IPPs (Independent Power Producers) who run their private power stations are operating at least 14.

Energy Data of Thermal Power Stations

Power Station Installed Generation Capacity MW Units Generated GWh Overall Cost of Generation Ps/KWh Utilization Factor %

WAPDA SPS Faisalabad GTPS Faisalabad NGPS Multan TPS Muzaffargarh TPS Guddu (Unit 1-4) TPS Guddu (Unit 5-13) GTPS Kotri FBC Lakhra TPS Jamshoro TPS Pasni GTPS Panjgur WAPDA Sub-Total KESC TPS Korangi GTPS Korangi Town GTPS Site TPS Bin Qasim KESC Sub-Total Private Sector AES Lal Pir, Muzaffargarh AES Pak Gen, Muzaffargarh Fauji Kabirwala Gul Ahmed, Karachi Habibullah HUBCO, Hub Japan Power KAPCO, Kot Addu Kohinoor Energy, Lahore Rousch Power Saba Power Southern Electric Tapal Energy, Karachi Uch Power IPPs Sub-Total Total Thermal

132.0 244.0 195.0 1,350.0 640.0 1,015.0 174.0 150.0 880.0 18.0 32.0 4,830.0

327.14 605.77 398.16 5,912.14 2,775.38 4,319.48 665.87 240.47 1,530.99 6.62 52.88 16,834.90

216.58 222.79 262.94 270.35 223.29 175.60 219.30 384.54 372.82 1,750.03 1,072.78 247.38

33.95 39.52 37.88 49.99 75.43 58.70 58.47 22.88 25.70 4.44 22.36

316.0 80.0 100.0 1,260.0 1,756.0

1,327.68 204.51 190.42 6,267.11 7,989.72

na na na na

47.96 29.18 21.74 56.78

362.0 365.0 157.0 136.0 129.0 1,292.0 135.6 1,500.0 131.0 412.0 134.0 117.0 126.0 586.0 5,582.6 12,168.6

611.95 1,709.05 1,218.95 870.89 912.76 7,165.00 293.37 6,138.62 120.47 1,539.53 448.44 163.49 732.02 2,176.64 24,101.18 48,925.80

na na 189.61 na na na na 267.25 na na na na 310.78 na

20.00 57.00 93.08 91.85 na 79.90 29.94 67.70 12.39 92.00 49.61 39.00 98.00 95.00

7.0

GENERATION COST

The cost of generation of thermal energy by WAPDA establishments was Rs. 2.48 approximately whereas that of hydel was Rs. 0.2 in the year 2000-01. There are transmission and distribution costs added to these figures. The consumer pays a much higher cost per unit of electricity consumed. This is because of pilferages, surcharges and 71.5% thermal-based electricity on the national grid. The average price in Pakistan is Rs. 4.5 per unit of electricity consumed. 8.0 UTILIZATION FACTOR

The Utilization Factor indicates the amount of energy utilized against the total available energy. This can also be interpreted by the energy consumed vs. installed capacity. The Utilization Factor of thermal energy is usually higher compared to hydel because thermal or nuclear plants can be run at the desired capacity and their costs and overheads also reduce proportionately whereas hydel is dependent on the water head in the reservoir. Utilization Factor also changes from year to year depending upon variation in national needs. The utilization factor of thermal energy in Pakistan for the year 2000-01 ranged between approximately 4.5 - 98 %. A low utilization factor indicates shut down of the power plant for a significant time period and hence is not a potential loss. 8.0 INDEPENDENT POWER PRODUCERS (IPPs)

Private power plants were mostly installed during the late 80s and early 90s after the load-shedding crises of the 1980s. KAPCO and HUBCO are the two largest IPPs in Pakistan. According to the Power Policy 1994 agreements of IPPs with the Government of Pakistan, WAPDA/KESC is bound to buy the power produced by them at a mutually agreed rate. Some of the IPPs are producing power for their industrial requirement. It is estimated that such IPPs are producing about 1,000 MW. REFERENCES 1. 2. Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan, Pakistan Energy Yearbook 2001, January 2002. The Associated Press, "Nuclear History In India, Pakistan," New York Times, May 28, 1998 http://www.mtholyoke.edu/acad/intrel/nuchist.htm CNS Chronology of Pakistan Nuclear Development, http://www.cns.miis.edu/research/india/paknucch.htm

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