Ch s gi tiu dng thng 5/2013 v nhng iu cn lu Vi nhng kt qu c c qua 6 thng u nm to tn hiu kh quan c nm CPI ch tng ng vi nm trc.

rc. Chu kz "2 nm tng cao, mt nm tng thp" din ra trong 9 nm trc khng lp li nh d on ca mt s chuyn gia. Th hai, CPI tng nhanh trong cc thng u nm 2011 do hiu ng rt ln ca cc t iu chnh gi lin tip ca nh nc i vi gi mt s sn phm quan trng nh xng du, in v t bit l iu chnh t gi. Ngy 11/2/2011, Ngn hng Nh nc iu chnh tng t gi lin ngn hng t mc 18.932 ln mc 20.693 VND/USD (tng 9,3%), ngy 1/3/2011, gi in tng bnh qun ln 15,28% v t ngay 24/2-29/3/2011 gi xng du iu chnh 2 ln vi mc tng ln khong 30%. Theo , d thng 7 c tng cao so vi my thng trc th CPI 7 thng u nm nay cng thuc loi thp. S lo lng theo d on ca mt s chuyn gia t cui nm 2012 v chu kz mt nm tng thp, hai nm tng cao ca CPI s lp li, th nay c kh nng khng xy ra, to iu kin yn tm hn vi vic chuyn sang lo cho tng trng.

Nhng lu t CPI thng 7

Liu lng ca chnh sch ti kha v tin t cha thch hp. Nn vic iu hnh chnh sch chng lm pht thi gian hay chuyn t cc oan ny (tht cht qu mc hoc tht cht dn vo u nm) ), sang cc oan khc (ni lng qu mc hoc ni lng dn vo cui nm). Mt biu hin khc cho tnh trng trn l trng hp u nm cht cht c ti kho, c tin t, cn cui nm th ni lng c ti kho, c tin t. iu ny khin nn kinh ri vng xoy tng trng- lm phttht cht- suy gim- ni lng- lm pht, dn n chu kz khng n nh, nm cao, nm thp nh tng xy ra.

Th nht l liu lng ni lng, trnh chuyn t cc oan ny (tht cht qu mc hoc tht cht dn vo u nm), sang cc oan khc (ni lng qu mc hoc ni lng dn vo cui nm). Th hai l u nm th cht cht c ti kho, c tin t, cn cui nm th ni lng c ti kho, c tin t. Lm nh vy th nm nay lm pht thp, sang nm li lm pht cao. Nu khng ch { n 2 im trn s dn n vng xoy tng trng- lm pht- tht cht- suy gim- ni lng- lm pht, dn n chu kz khng n nh, nm cao, nm thp nh tng xy ra. im ch th by l s tc ng ca tm l lm pht- tuy l yu t phi kinh t, nhng trong nhiu trng hp cn ln hn c cc yu t kinh t khc. Tuy nhin, theo gii nghin cu kinh t, khng th ch da vo gii php ni lng chnh sch ti kha, tin t bi nh vy rt d chuyn t thi cc ny sang thi cc khc, tc l d ri vo vng lun qun by lu nay: tng trng - lm pht - tht cht - suy gim - ni lng - lm pht. Vy lm cch no thot ra khi ci vng ny? Mt

mt, cn quan tm n liu lng ni lng, mt khc, cn

rt tn dng vo ng a ch. Bn cnh , cn tp trung vo gii php nng cao hiu qu u t, nng cao nng sut lao ng, bi y l nguyn nhn su xa, yu t tim n ca lm pht.
V vy, mt mt cn lu { n liu lng ca vic ni lng ti kho, tin t, trnh chuyn t cc oan ny sang cc oan khc. Mt khc, cn c s phi hp cht ch, cn trng v liu lng v thi im thc hin l trnh gi th trng i vi mt s hng ho, dch v quan trng. Mt khc na l t gi, trnh iu chnh git cc vi mc cao, nn iu chnh nh hoc quy nh t gi giao dch trn th trng lin ngn hng, hoc bin giao dch trnh u c. Gii php. Trong nhng thng cn li nm 2013, vic thc hin l trnh gi th trng vi mt s hng ha, dch v quan trng l cn thit. Tuy nhin, l trnh phi ng hng v m bo a loi hnh hn ch c quyn, trong khi cha thc hin th cn minh bch, cng khai v tng cng kim tra, thanh tra. c bit l liu lng iu chnh, thi im iu chnh cng nh s phi hp nhp nhng gia cc b, ngnh; gia Trung ng v a phng. Khi lm pht thp v vi cc hiu ng nh trn cng c th dn n tnh trng lm pht cao tr li. Cc doanh nghip, cc ngnh sn xut, kinh doanh hng ha, dch v tiu dng c tnh c quyn nh in, than, xng du, nc, y t, gio dc. c th xem y l thi c iu chnh tng hoc xin c iu chnh tng gi. Ba l, vic thc hin l trnh gi th trng i vi mt s hng ha, dch v c cp trong bo co ca Chnh ph (nh xng du, in, dch v cng v gio dc, y t) l cn thit v ng hng, nhng phi thn trng v liu lng, thi im vi l trnh ph hp, bo m cng khai, minh bch v lm tt cng tc thng tin, tuyn truyn. Ba, vic thc hin l trnh gi th trng l ng hng v cn thit, nhng cn trnh iu chnh dn dp nhiu loi trong cng thi gian v thi gian lin nhau s to ra lc cng hng (ln hn tng lc ring r v cng hng vi yu t tm l). Bn, nguyn nhn su xa, yu t tim n ca lm pht cao chnh l hiu qu u t thp, nng sut lao ng thp. V vy, vic c cu li nn kinh t, chuyn i m hnh tng trng cn c y mnh hn, khc phc sc z ca bc khi u. c bit quan tm n vic khc phc tnh git cc, tnh cc oan trong iu hnh v s bung lng trong vic gim st kim tra khi chuyn t tht cht sang ni lng.

Trong khi ni lng chnh sch ti kha, chnh sch tin t thc hin mc tiu tng trng hp l, nhng vn phi kin nh v nht qun vi mc tiu kim ch lm pht, n nh kinh t v m m phi tn km thi gian, cng sc v khc phc hiu ng ph mi bc u thc hin c.

Khi CPI tng thp, mt s ngnh, doanh nghip c quyn d ngh tng gi, nu s phi hp gia cc b, ngnh Trung ng, gia Trung ng vi a phng, nu khng cn trng v liu lng, v thi im, s d lm cho lm pht cao tr li. Mt khc, tnh trng t nc theo gi cng d din ra v lp li tnh trng trc y.

Trong khi nguyn nhn su xa, yu t tim n ca lm pht (hiu qu u t, nng sut lao ng) cha c s ci thin quan trng, trong khi cn t s dng bin php th trng m d dng bin php hnh chnh, ngn hn, th lm pht lc cao, lc thp xy ra v rt d lp li. y l s cnh bo cn thit.
Th nht, cn cn nhc liu lng ca cc gii php iu hnh, trnh qu mc v trnh git cc. Cui nm 2011 v u nm 2012, vic tht cht chnh sch tin t, ti kho thc hin vi liu lng qu mc (n mc tng trng d n tn dng sau 6 thng vn cn mang du m). Tuy vic tht cht ny c lm cho CPI chm li kh nhanh nhng gy ra hiu ng ph lm tng trng kinh t b suy gim, s doanh nghip b ngng sn xut, gii th tng nhanh v mc cao. Hin nay, cng cn thn trng trong vic ni lng tin t, va tng trng kinh t hp l, nhng khng lm cho lm pht cao tr li v khng gy bt n vi v m.

im lu th nht l ngi sn xut lng thc, thc phm b thit kp: Va thit do bn sn phm ra vi gi gim, va phi mua vo vi gi tng; v vy cn h tr mnh hn v hng n h tr trc tip hn. im lu th hai l hiu ng ph i vi tng trng kinh t, i vi DN v lao ng vic lm. im lu th ba l d lm cho cc nh qun l{ iu hnh ch quan, l l vi kim ch lm pht. V vy, mt mt cn lu { n liu lng ca vic ni lng ti kho, tin t, trnh chuyn t cc oan ny sang cc oan khc. Mt khc, cn c s phi hp cht ch, cn trng v liu lng v thi im thc hin l trnh gi th trng i vi mt s hng ho, dch v quan trng. Mt khc na l t gi, trnh iu chnh git cc vi mc cao, nn iu chnh nh hoc quy nh t gi giao dch trn th trng lin ngn hng, hoc bin giao dch trnh u c. - Cc gii php tht cht tin t, ti kha t mt vi nm nay kim ch lm pht nhng cng a n mt s hiu ng ph cn phi khc phc. S lng doanh nghip ngng hot ng hoc ph sn trong nm 2011 cao hn nm 2010, nm 2012 cao hn nm 2011 v 4 thng u nm 2013 cao hn so vi cng kz nm 2012. S lng doanh nghip cn hot ng th t l b thua l hin chim n 2/3 Tc tng tn kho sn phm ngnh cng nghip ch bin tuy c chm li nhng vn cn cao gp 3 ln tc tng trng sn xut. Tng trng kinh t qu I/2013 tuy c cao hn qu I/2012 nhng vn thp hn so vi cng kz 2 nm trc , trong tng trng ca 2 nhm ngnh sn xut ra sn phm vt cht (cn gi l kinh t thc) vn cn tng thp hn. Tnh hnh nu khng c gii quyt th vic thc hin mc tiu tng trng GDP c nm l 5,5% s rt kh t c.