2.

16
a. E1 = Monday is a rainy day
E2 = Tuesday is a rainy day
E3 = Wednesday is a rainy day
Given P(E1) = P(E2) = P(E3) = 0.3
P(E2 E1) = P(E3 E2) = 0.5
P(E3 E1E2) = 0.2
b.

P(E1E2) = P(E2 E1) P(E1) = 0.5x0.3 = 0.15

c.

P(E1E2 E 3 ) = P( E 3 E1E2) P(E2 E1) P(E1)

= (1-0.2)(0.5)(0.3)
= 0.12

d.

P(at least one rainy day)

= P(E1 E2 E3)
= P(E1) + P(E2) + P(E3) - P(E1E2) - P(E2E3) - P(E1E3) + P(E1E2E3)
= 0.3 + 0.3 + 0.3 - 0.3x0.5 - 0.3x0.5 0.1125 + 0.3x0.5x0.2
=0.52
Where P(E1E3)=P(E3|E1)P(E1)=0.375x0.3=0.1125
P(E3|E1)= P(E3|E2E1)P(E2|E1)+ P(E3| E 2 E1)P( E 2 |E1)

=0.15x0.15+0.3x0.5
=0.375