How to define your decision problem

Excerpted from Smart choices: A practical guide for making better decisions by John S. Hammond, Ralph L. Keeney, Howard Raiffa

The way you state your problem frames your decisions. It determines the alternatives you consider and the you evaluate them. Posing the right problems drives everything else. A problem is a decision problem, where you have situation and you need to take right decision. A good solution to a well-posed decision is almost always smarter choice than an excellent solution to a poorly one.

Some aspects to consider while defining problem

Be Creative about your problem definition

Turn Problems into opportunities Define the decision problem. Re-examine your problem definition as you go. Maintain your perspective.

Be Creative about your problem

Greatest danger in formulating problem is laziness.

To get out of the box and think creatively. Case: West coast port Give a fresh look apparantly on routine problem.

Turn Problems into Opportunities Problems are not bad.

Einstein Said: In the middle of the difficulties, lies opportunities.

Case: US manufacturing company There is trigger.

Define the decision Problem

-Ask what triggered this decision, why I am even considering it?

-Question the constraints in your problem statements. Case: Berkeley meeting -Identify the essential elements of the problem -Understand what other decisions impinge on or hinge on this decision. -Establish a sufficient but workable scope for your problem defined. -Gain fresh insights by asking others how they see the situation

Re-examine your problem definition as you go -Defining you decision problem is itself a decision problem.

-It is important to consider several possible problem definitions & re-examine them. -While you try to benchmark, you may find strategy to have an edge over them.

Maintain your perspective -Crafting a good definition takes time.

-Keep some time for defining always helps.

-Case: A poor problem definition limits options

Exercise: Case Study for practice.

(Instruction: Students must practice the exercise.