Probability models

Properties
0 P( A) 1
P(Sample Space) 1
The probability of an event is between 0 and 1
The probability that the whole sample space happens The Probability of an event occurring is 1 minus the Probability that it does not occur.

P( A) 1 P( AC )
or

P( A) 1 P( A )

P( A B) P( A or B) P( A) P( B) P( A B) P( A and B) P( A) * P( B)

If events are disjoint If events are independent

M&Ms

In a standard bag yellow and red make up 20% each of the ca orange, blue, and green each 10%. The rest are brown P(Yellow or Orange).20 = + .10 = .30 P(Not Green) = 1-.10=.90 P(Striped) =0 P(Brown) =.30

If you pick three in a row and replace each time: P(all Brown) = P(Brown and Brown and Brown) =(.30)(.30)(.30)= P(third one is the only red) = red and not red and red) P(not =(.80)(.80)(.20)=.128 P(At least one is green) 1-P(none = green)=1-(.90)(.90)(.90) =.271

Example
In 2001 M&Ms decided to add another color to

the standard color lineup of brown, yellow, red, orange, blue and green. To decide which color to add, they surveyed people in nearly every country of the world and asked them to vote among purple pink and teal. The winner was purple.

In the U.S. 42% of those who voted said purple, 37% said teal, and only 19% said pink.

List the sample space for the random event of choosing a color {Purple, teal, pink} Verify that the first two properties are true.

0 P( A) 1

P(Sample Space) 1

Identify a new event for no preference (none) and assign it a probability. P(none) = 2%

In Japan, the percentages were 38% pink, 36% teal, and only 1 P(pink)=.38 P(teal)=.36 P(purple)=.16 P(none) =.10

1. What is the probability that a Japanese survey respondent selected at random preferred either pink or teal?
P(pink or teal) P( Pink) P(teal) .38 .36 .74

2. If we pick two respondents at random, what is the Probability that they both said purple?
P(purple and purple) P( purple) * P( purple) (.16)(.16) .0256

3. If we pick three respondents at random, what is the Probability that at least one preferred purple?

The hard way:

P(at least one purple) P(1 purple and 2 not purple) P(2 purple and 1 not purple) P(3 purple)

P(at least one purple) 3(.16)(.84)(.84) 3(.16)(.16)(.84) (.16)(.16) (.16) P(at least one purple) .407

The Easy way:

P(at least one purple) 1 P(no purple) 1 (.84)(.84)(.84) .407