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Risks - Decline or Volatility in Economy
Risks - Decline or Volatility in Economy
Industrials
Macro Variables- GDP Aerospace and Defense World GDP , Construction US GDP Interest Rates Building and Construction Corporate profits- tied to GDP Foreign Exchange Rates -Industrial production -ISM Manufacturing Index Industrials Data -Steel Prices Months, Price, Index ( Inflation adjusted) Steel Prices have gone up ( impacts COGS) PPI- Finished goods less food and energy source labor department Oil Prices Oil prices have gone down in past year, average monthly chart , Defense spending budgets Cass Freight Index- indicator for industrial shipment activity -Yardeni Industrials Handbook Transportation Railroads Coal, Weekly Us Coal Production Chemicals Air freight Higher value per unit weight, more time sensitive than trucking
Valuation Metrics Leverage Ratios ( D/E), Degree of Operating Leverage higher leverage affects EBIt. = Degree of Operating Leverage = % change in Ebit / % change in Sales a ratio of 1 implies that all of the companys costs are fixed, EBIT Vs. EBITDA- D&A is big in industrials and allows for an accurate comparison against other companies -Potential IssuesCore Business Performance- Margins, Ratios Bloomberg Chart- Stock Price, and Earnings Surprises News Items DCF Sensitivity Analysis Growth, COGS, SGA, P/E = PV Analyst Recommendations