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PROJECT REPORT
ON
A Equity research
On
Fast Moving Consumer Goods
SUBMITTED BY:
IMTIYAZ SIDDIQUE
MMS-FINANCE
2008-10
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DECLARATION
Signature
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CERTIFICATE
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
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Executive summary
The Indian FMCG sector is the fourth largest sector in the economy
with a total market size in excess of US$ 13.1 billion. FMCG market is
expected to rise to 33.4 billion US$ till 2015.
This report starts with a brief introduction of FMCG market along with
Industry Overview. It further state that why FMCG sector is Analyzed
and why India. In this report two FMCG company “HUL & Dabur
India” is analyzed there history their shareholding pattern along with
their product is being discussed.
As consumer behavior and lifestyles changed, people no longer buy the way
they used to. Simply increasing ‘width' and ‘depth' of coverage no longer
seems to produce the magical results it once used to."
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TABLE OF CONTENT
Sr No TOPICS PAGE
NO.
1.1 Introduction
1.2 Indian FMCG market size
2.1 Industry Overview
2.2 Structural Analysis of FMCG Industry
2.3 FMCG Market Review
2.4 Why FMCG Sector is Analyzed
2.5 FMCG Sector Product and Category
2.6 India- a large consumer goods spender
2.7 Consumer expenditure on food at international level
3.1 FMCG sector product and category
4.1 SWOT Analysis
5.1 Hindustan Unilever LTD
5.2 Product of HUL
5.3 Distribution Network
5.4 Fundamental Analysis
5.5 Technical Analysis
6.1 Dabur India
6.2 Product of Dabur
6.3 Distribution Network
6.4 Fundamental Analysis
6.5 Technical Analysis
7.1 Sectoral opportunities
8.1 Policy Issues
9.1 Distinguishing Features of Indian FMCG Business
10.1 Other Suggestions
11.1 Salient Feature
12.1 Conclusion
1.1 Introduction
6
The Indian FMCG sector is the fourth largest sector in the economy
with a total market size in excess of US$ 13.1 billion. It has a strong
MNC presence and is characterized by a well established distribution
network, intense competition between the organized and unorganized
segments and low operational cost. Availability of key raw materials,
cheaper labour costs and presence across the entire value chain
gives India a competitive advantage.
The FMCG market is set to treble from US$ 11.6 billion in 2003 to
US$ 33.4 billion in 2015. Penetration level as well as per capita
consumption in most product categories like jams, toothpaste, skin
care, hair wash etc in India is low indicating the untapped market
potential. Burgeoning Indian population, particularly the middle class
and the rural segments, presents an opportunity to makers of
branded products to convert consumers to branded products.
The Indian FMCG market has been divided for a long time between
the organized sector and the unorganized sector. While the latter has
been crowded by a large number of local players, competing on
margins, the former has varied between a two-player-scenario to a
multi-player one.
Unlike the U.S. market for fast moving consumer goods (FMCG),
which is dominated by a handful of global players, India's Rs.460
billion FMCG market remains highly fragmented with roughly half the
market going to unbranded, unpackaged home made products. This
presents a tremendous opportunity for makers of branded products
who can convert consumers to branded products. However,
successfully launching and growing market share around a branded
product in India presents tremendous challenges. Take distribution as
an example. India is home to six million retail outlets and super
markets virtually do not exist. This makes logistics particularly for new
players extremely difficult. Other challenges of similar magnitude
exist across the FMCG supply chain. The fact is that FMCG is a
structurally unattractive industry in which to participate. Even so, the
opportunity keeps FMCG makers trying.
8
(Source: IBEF FMCG Analysis)
All these factors provide a huge untapped potential for the industry.
In contrast to other manufacturing sectors, FMCG is relatively less
capital-intensive, but demands immense skills and expenditure on
branding and distribution. Most companies in the sector create value
through product differentiation, package innovation, differential pricing
and highlighting the functional aspect of foods. While inflation restricts
the industry's growth, many companies in the sector thrive under
inflationary pressures. Most companies pass on the cost inflation to
consumers, via a judicious blend of price hikes, packaged size
reduction and change in product mix. Few consumers react by down-
trading to lower priced products, but most hang on to their preferred
brands.
The top five FMCG companies constitute nearly 70% of the total
revenues generated by this sector. Multinational FMCG companies
like Hindustan Unilever, ITC, Nestle, Procter & Gamble, Dabur India
and GlaxoSmithKline Consumer Healthcare traditionally comprise the
first category of FMCG companies. They tend to spend nearly 10% of
their revenues on an average on advertising and promoting their
products, which is the highest ad spend figure in the industry.
Justifying their high product pricing, these companies largely tend to
capture value by addressing a felt need.
FMCG products are those that get replaced within a year. Example of
FMCG generally include a wide range of frequently purchased
consumer products such as toiletries, soap, cosmetics, tooth cleaning
products, shaving products and detergents, as well as other non-
durables such as glassware, bulbs, batteries, paper product, and
plastic good. FMCG may also include pharmaceuticals, consumer
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electronics, packaged food products, soft drinks, tissue paper, and
chocolate bars.
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confectioneries, beverages, and cigarettes. Typical characteristics of
FMCG products are: -
FY 09 Result Highlights
12
2.4 Why FMCG Sector is Analyzed
TATA Investment Corporation Limited, non non-banking financial
company registered with Reserve Bank of India under the '
Investment Company' category. The company's activities comprise
primarily of investing in long-term investments in equity shares and
other securities of companies in a wide range of industries.
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TICL invested in almost all the sectors. TICL’s portfolio proved to be a
very successful portfolio. They had got a very good return from all the
sectors. Among these sectors, Fast Moving Consumer Goods
(FMCG) proved to be a very successful sector. It has a very good
potentiality in long term in India. The overall cost of investment in
FMCG sector was Rs. 13.69 crores on May 20, 2008, this investment
valued Rs. 306.72 crores i.e. the cost of value of investment in FMCG
sector was 5% of the overall investment that was increased in 2008
to 15% of the overall investment. Thus from this, we can conclude
that, there is a 2140.47% increase in value of investment. For this
significant increase and also recent development of retails shops,
malls, etc. in India, the FMCG sector is one of the booming sectors in
India. For this reason, I had chosen this sector for my equity analysis.
Below, I had given a which explains, the detail investment of TICL in
FMCG sector:
14
Around 70 per cent of the total households in India (188 million)
resides in the rural areas. The total number of rural households are
expected to rise from 135 million in 2001-02 to 153 million in 2010-11.
This presents the largest potential market in the world.
The annual size of the rural FMCG market was estimated at around
US$ 33.4 billion in 2015. With growing incomes at both the rural and
the urban level, the market potential is expected to expand further.
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(Source: KSA Technopak Consumer Outlook 2004.)
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3.1 FMCG sector Product & Category
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Category Product
Fabric wash (laundry soaps and synthetic
detergents); household cleaners (dish/utensil
cleaners, floor cleaners, toilet cleaners, air
fresheners, insecticides and mosquito repellents,
Household Care metal polish and furniture polish).
Health beverages; soft drinks; staples/cereals;
bakery products (biscuits, bread, cakes); snack
food; chocolates; ice cream; tea; coffee; soft
drinks; processed fruits, vegetables; dairy
Food and products; bottled water; branded flour; branded
Beverages rice; branded sugar; juices etc.
Oral care, hair care, skin care, personal wash
(soaps); cosmetics and toiletries; deodorants;
Personal Care perfumes; feminine hygiene; paper products.
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Strengths
Well established distribution networks extending to the rural areas
Backed by strong brands
Low cost operations
Presence of established distribution networks in both urban and
rural areas
Presence of well-known brands in FMCG sector
Weakness
Low export levels
Small scale sector reservations limit ability to invest in technology
and achieve economies of scale
Several “Me-Too” products
Opportunities
Large domestic market
Export potential
Increasing income levels will result in faster revenue growth
High consumer goods spending
Threats
Tax & Regulatory Structures
Slowdown in Rural Demands
Removal of import restriction resulting in replacing of domestic
brands
Management Structure
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Hindustan Unilever Limited is India's largest Fast Moving Consumer
Goods (FMCG) Company. It is present in Home & Personal Care and
Foods & Beverages categories.
Board
Chairman Harish Manwani
Managing Director &
Nitin Paranjpe
CEO
Vice Chairman D Sundaram
D S Parekh
C K Prahalad
Director A Narayan
S Ramadorai
R A Mashelkar
Executive Director Dhaval Buch
Executive Director Gopal Vittal
Executive Director & CS Ashok Gupta
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Share holding pattern
16% 15%
15%
3%
Foreign
Institutions
51% Non Promoter
Promoters
Public & Others
Foods
Ice-cream Foods
Kwality Wall's Annapurna(Aata and
salt)
Kissan(Jam,Ketchup,Squ
ashes)
Knorr Soups
Tea Coffee
Brooke bond Brooke bond
Lipton Bru
• product availability,
• brand communication,
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The distribution network in general trade is as follows:-
FACTORY
REDISTRIBUTION STOCKIST
CONSUMER
The products that are manufactured are first brought to the JIT (Just
In Time) Depot from the factory. Then these products are delivered to
the Redistribution Stockiest according to the order placed by them,
this is done through Permanent Dispatch Plan. Then this stock is
send to either retailers or wholesalers, according to the channel
followed by them. From there it reaches to the consumers.
At the supermarkets
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Self-service stores and supermarkets are fast emerging in metros
and large towns. To service modern retailing outlets in the metros,
HUL has set up a full-scale sales organisation, exclusively for this
channel. The business system delivers excellent customer service,
while driving growth for the company and the store. At the same time,
innovative marketing initiatives are taken to provide consumers with
experience of our brands at the store itself, through product tests and
in-store sampling.
This is termed as Modern Trade. It has got different distribution
network and work differently. It is fast gaining pace as more and more
people are turning to malls for shopping. Today shoppers don’t just
want to buy their daily groceries but they also want a shopping
experience. They want to spend time in air conditioned store, no
more they are ready to sweat for spending money. These big box
retailers provide them a platform where they can roam around, pick,
compare and choose their products. These stores provide them a
whole new experience of shopping without shedding any drop of
sweat.
Distribution Network
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FACTORY
CONSUMER
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Liquidity & Leverage Ratios
March Dec 07 Dec 06 Dec 05
09
Current Ratio 0.92 0.68 0.73 0.70
Quick Ratio 0.51 0.25 0.34 0.33
Total Debt/Equity 0.20 0.06 0.03 0.02
Interest Coverage Ratio 118.70 83.09 171.62 83.27
Current Ratio of HUL has been less than 1 for all the 4 years taken
for analysis. As the standard of current ratio is 1:1 for FMCG industry.
This implies that working capital of HUL is always negative. This is
generally considered an aggressive strategy i.e. to financing its long
term asset by short term sources that increases profitability because
current liabilities are non interest bearing items. There is significant
difference between CR and LR which indicates that the current asset
of HUL consists of good amount of inventory. Value of sundry debtors
is quite low. The liquidity ratios have increase from previous year
which shows that HUL has increase its liquidity further.
Inventory turnover ratio show that how many times in a year have the
company converted its Inventory into debtor. As the Inventory
turnover ratio is high this year as compared to the previous 3 year
this indicate the production and sales efficiency and show how fast
the goods are moving in the market. As greater the inventory turnover
ratio is in times more beneficial to the company. Debtor turnover ratio
show how that how many times company can convert debtors into
cash in a year.DTR has increased for all the four year taken in to
comparison this indicate that company is getting the cash from debtor
late in the year 2005 DTR was 22.12 it get increased to 41.83 in
current financial year. It can be happened because company has
increased its policy or Debtor are paying late to company this should
be low as possible. Asset turnover ratio is net sales/net asset has
ATR is increasing for the four year taken in to comparison indicating
that net sales of the company is increasing year on year.
Profitability Ratios
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March Dec 07 Dec 06 Dec 05
09
Operating Margin (%) 14.46 14.95 14.74 14.14
Gross Profit Margin (%) 13.50 15.86 15.80 15.03
Net Profit Margin (%) 12.05 12.58 14.94 12.42
Return On Net Worth (%) 121.34 122.97 68.14 61.09
Return on Capital 121.06 138.72 65.89 67.66
Employed (%)
Earning Per Share 11.47 8.12 8.41 6.40
Dividend Per Share 7.50 9.00 6.00 5.00
CFO/PBIT(%) 13.35 13.78 13.50 12.87
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09
Price to Earning Ratio 29.26 29.67 28.61 34.79
Market Capitalization 2.40 3.16 3.67 3.63
Price to book value 25.21 32.36 17.55 18.84
PE ratio for HUL is not so good with values over 30. In the year 2009,
2007 and 2006 and somewhat better with value around 30. It means
an investor will get return around 1/30 times on his actual investment.
If you multiply EPS & PER of 2009 you get Rs 336 and the current
market share of Hul is Rs 272 this means that the company is
undervalued. Market capitalization of HUL has increased after 2005,
but there is a small decrease in the year 2007, and now it is 2.40 in
current financial year it has decreased over here management should
play a vital role to increase market capitalization.
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This is the Moving Average Crossover Chart where,
- Price Line
- 50 days moving average
- 20 days moving average
From the above Moving Average Crossover Chart we can see that in
the month of January HUL stock was very volatile we cannot predict
what is going to happen because price line is not able to cut 20 days
moving average nor it is able to cut 50 days moving average from
down or from up as it can be see from the chart that at the end of
January price line has cut 20 days moving average from down so
price has raise little bit but in march 20 days moving average has cut
50 days moving average from up this is the clear indication that price
is going to fall and this is the time to sell the stock and we can see
that in march price has gone down to the low as compared from
January to june and for 3 month (march, april, may) price line and 20
days moving average was below 50 days moving average so price
was low for that period but in the start of june price line and 20 days
moving average has cut 50 days moving average from down so this
is clear indication that price is going to go up and this is the right time
to buy the stock.
MACD Chart
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This is MACD Chart
- Price Line
- 9 days signal line
- MACD line
From the above MACD chart we can make out that in the month of
January MACD was above the signal line that means the price will also go
up and till end of February the stock price that was indicated in the chart is
more or less up. At the start of march MACD line has touch signal line and
then it has gone down this is a signal to come out if you have a stock
because the price is going to go down and till the end of march MACD was
below the signal line in April it has try to cut signal line but it was not able
to cut it so it is advice not to enter in this market we need to wait. As seen
from the chart that at the start of June MACD line has cut signal line and
gone up so stock price has also gone up and till now it is showing upward
trend this is a good time to enter in the market.
Recommended to Hold
33
By going through Technical chart i.e. the Moving Average Crossover
Chart and MACD chart of HUL it clearly state that the stock price is
going to go up and this time you need to hold the stock or if you don’t
have the stock right time to invest in the stock. You can book your
profit if you are and investor or a trader i.e if you are a short term
player or a long term player you can book your profit.
As FMCG sector was struggling with the slow growth in the Indian
economy, Dabur decided to take numerous strategic initiatives,
reorganize operations and improve on its brand architecture
beginning 2002. It decided to concentrate its marketing efforts on
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Dabur, Vatika, Amla, Real and Hajmola to strengthen their brand
equity, create differentiation and emerge as a pure FMCG player
recognized as an herbal brand. This was chosen after a study with
Accenture, which revealed that Dabur was mainly perceived as an
Herbal brand and connected more with the age group above 35
(Naukrihub, 2007).
Large retailers were fighting for their market share in this lucrative
FMCG sector. Apart from HUL, P&G, Marico and Himalaya, ITC was
also posing a challenge. Because of the large number of products,
supply chain was became complex.
Management Structure
Dabur India's Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) Company. It is
present in Home & Personal Care & Food categories.
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Board
37
Share holding pattern
6% 9%
14%
1%
Foreign
Institutions
Non Promoter
Promoters
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6.2 Products of Dabur
Home & Personal Care
Hairoil Shampoo
Vatika Vatika heena
Amla conditioning
Sarso Anmol-natural shine
silky
Home Care
Odomos
Odonil
Sanifresh
Odopic
Foods
Digestive Health Supplements
Hajmola range Chyawanprash
Hingoli Dabur Honey
Pudin hara Glucose
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6.3 Distribution Network
Dabur went ahead and built a system using Visual Basic and ASP
with SQL Server 2000 as the database. It decided not to use a
packaged SCM solution due to the high cost and relative lack of
complications in its supply chain.
The initiative
An in-house developed, easy-to-use, Intranet based data-warehouse
displays as-of-yesterday sales, stock, receivables, banking, and other
MIS. Over 5,000 ASP pages meet almost all reporting requirements
and make this a single source of MIS for all levels of decision makers.
This success paved the ground for the company's supply chain
initiative. Fifty-five Ku Band TDMA VSATs were used to link primary
distributors to the system. Factories were hooked up using PAMA
(Permanent Assigned Multiple Access) VSATs. At some locations
VPNs had to be used because it was not possible to set up a dish.
The zonal offices in Mumbai were hooked up in a similar manner.
The primary rollout began in April 2001 and took 16 months. The first
six months were used to create a business model common to all
divisions (family products, healthcare, ayurvedic products, and
pharmaceuticals), and testing and piloting the same.
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The Innovation
The integrated primary and secondary system has a number of
unique features. The features like tight integration of schemes,
stockists credit limit control, automated banking of cheques, and
online cheque reconciliation have obvious advantages in the primary
distribution. These are basically extensions to the MFG/PRO ERP
system and not core customizations.
The integrated system allows each Area Manager to plan for the
month's sales forecasts, stockists performance, and sales officers'
performance. The integration allows better control on pipelines in
primaries and secondaries, brings down inventories, and offers better
control on production and sales against a confirmed forecast.
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6.4 Fundamental Analysis
Current Ratio of dabur for last 3 year is near to 1 and for this financial
year it is more then 1 this indicate that the company is in good
position as Current Ratio standard for FMCG industry is 1:1.There is
less difference between CR and LR which indicates that the current
asset of Dabur consists of less amount of inventory. Value of sundry
debtors is quite high. The liquidity ratios have increase from previous
year which shows that dabur has increase its liquidity further.
Inventory turnover ratio show that how many times in a year have
the company converted its Inventory into debtor. As the Inventory
turnover ratio has decreased as compared to the previous 3 year this
show how slow the goods are moving in the market of Dabur this also
indicate the production and sales efficiency of the company. As
greater the inventory turnover ratio is in times more beneficial to the
company. But in case of Dabur Inventory Turnover Ratio has
decreased this Is a cost of concern to the company they have the
inventory but it is not turning in to debtor. Debtor turnover ratio show
how that how many times company can convert debtors into cash in a
year.DTR has decreased as compared to the previous 3 year which is
good on behalf of the company because they are recovering money
faster from debtor. Asset turnover ratio is net sales/net asset has ATR
is increasing marginally for all the 4 year this show that company net
sales is increasing year on year which is good from company point of
view.
Profitability Ratios
43
March March March March
09 08 07 06
Operating Margin (%) 18.33 18.60 17.45 17.90
Gross Profit Margin (%) 17.19 17.37 17.49 17.74
Net Profit Margin (%) 15.44 15.06 14.41 14.04
Return On Net Worth (%) 51.20 61.58 62.52 42.22
Return on Capital 47.98 67.51 66.07 46.69
Employed (%)
Earning Per Share 4.32 3.67 2.92 3.30
Dividend Per Share 1.75 1.50 1.75 2.50
CFO/PBIT(%) 17.11 17.29 16.16 16.47
44
March March March March
09 08 07 06
Price Earning Ratio 24.55 32.23 34.91 40.64
Market Capitalization 3.52 4.48 5.00 5.19
Price to book value 11.57 17.99 20.33 15.87
PER ratio for Dabur is not so good with values over 30 In the year
2006, 2007 and 2008. But for this financial year it is 24.55 that means
it is decreasing the PER should be as low as possible. This means
that the market is valuing the company 24.55 times then its EPS if
you multiply EPS & PER for 2009 you get Rs 106 and the current
market share of Dabur is Rs 124 this means that the company is
overvalued. Market capitalization of Dabur is decreasing from 2006
which was 5.19 and for 2009 it is 3.52 every year it is decreasing
Management need to look forward to increased their market
capitalization.
45
Moving Average Crossover Chart
From the above Moving Average Crossover Chart we can see that in the
month of January to June Dabur price line has shown upward trend as the
price was moving along with 20 days moving average and 50 days moving
average. In the mid of march 20 days moving average is suppose to cut 50
days moving average but it does not happen if suppose it has cut the 50
days moving average then the price should have fall. As from April the gap
between 20 days moving average and 50 days moving average goes on
increasing so from April to June price of Dabur stock has also gone up it
can be seen that the stock price of Dabur is going to raise further and it is
seems that it will go further up so if you have the stock you hold and if you
don’t you buy it.
MACD Chart
46
This is MACD Chart
- Price Line
- 50 days moving average
- 20 days moving average
Moving Average Convergence Divergence chart means that when as
MACD falls below the signal line, it is a bearish signal.
When the MACD rises above the signal line, the indicator gives a
bullish signal.
When the security price diverge from the MACD. It signals the end of
the current trend.
From the above MACD chart we can make out that from January to June
MACD was above the signal line that means the price will also go up and
the price line has gone up if you see the price line chart In the start of
March MACD was almost equal to signal line at this point we can’t predict
any think because it may go up or also it can come down but as in the mid
of march MACD goes on increasing and gone above the signal line the
price goes on increasing and the price is showing the upward trend.
Recommended to Hold
47
By going through the Technical chart i.e. Moving Average Crossover
Chart and MACD chart of Dabur India it clearly state that the stock
price is going to go up and this time you need to hold the stock or if
you don’t have the stock right time to invest in the stock with the point
of view of trader if you are an investor this stock would not be the
right decision to make as in the Moving Average Crossover Chart 20
days moving average line is bit closer to 50 days moving average line
and at any time 20 days moving average may cut 50 days moving
average from up so the stock price will fall and even stock price is
showing a little bit downward trend it would be not safe for a long
term investor to enter in this stock but trader can book profit.
• Beverages: The US$ 2 billion Indian tea market has been growing
at 1.5 to 2 per cent annually and is likely to see a further rise as
Indian consumers convert from loose tea to branded tea products. In
the aerated drinks segment, the per capita consumption of soft drinks
in India is 6 bottles compared to Pakistan's 17 bottles, Sri Lanka's 21,
Thailand's 73, the Philippines 173 and Mexico's 605. The demand for
soft drink in India is expected to grow at an annual rate of 10 per cent
per annum between 2006-12 with demand at 805 million cases by
2011-12. Per capita coffee consumption in India is being promoted by
the coffee chains and by the emergence of instant cold coffee.
According to CIER, demand for coffee is expected to rise to 535,000
metric tonnes by 2012, with an annual growth rate of 5 per cent
between 2006-12.
• Edible oil: The demand for edible oil in India, according to CIER, is
expected to rise to 21 million tonnes by 2011-12 with an annual
growth rate of 7 per cent
per annum.
50
The government has gradually removed the restrictions on imports of
consumer goods in the country and also significantly reduced custom
duties. The domestic tax structure of these products, however, has
not been rationalized to provide level playing field for competition.
This is adversely affecting the growth of the FMCG industry and could
have far reaching adverse impact. The following taxation issues need
urgent attention of the government:
The cascading effect of sales tax and local levies on inputs used in
domestic manufacture should be eliminated by providing either
MODVAT credit or by introducing notional VAT covering both central
and state taxes on an urgent basis.
51
Moreover, MRP-based excise duty is levied on a large number of
FMCG products. Countervailing duty on the same product when
imported is charged on CIF value. The MRP based assessable value
for excise duty does not allow abatement for post manufacturing
costs such as advertising and selling expenses whereas CIF value
considered for the purpose of import duty does not include costs of
these elements incurred subsequently by importers.
The increase in excise duty in last year’s budget from eight per cent
to 16 per cent has adversely affected the growth of processed foods
industry. It is recommended that marginal rate of excise duty on
processed foods should not be more than eight per cent and the
sales tax should be levied at four per cent.
52
5) Cascading effect of Special Excise Duty
FDI Policy
53
1. Design and Manufacturing
3. Competition
56
needs of the masses, across the country. Low-priced products
contribute the majority of the sales volume and lower income and
lower middle income groups account for over 60 per cent of the
sector’s sales. Moreover, rural markets account for 56 per cent of
total domestic FMCG demand and FMCG outlets reach more villages
than any other basic facility such as primary schools or bus facilities.
The FMCG sector has several other salient features. It has strong
links with agriculture and 71 per cent of sales come from agro-based
products; it is a significant value creator with a market capitalisation
second only to the IT sector and it is a key contributor to the
exchequer. In 1998-99, it accounted for eight per cent of total
corporate tax; six per cent of central excise revenue and seven per
cent of state tax revenues.
12.1 Conclusion
The FMCG sector has traditionally grown at a very fast rate and has
generally out performed the rest of the industry. Over the last one
year, however the rate of growth has slowed down and the sector has
recorded sales growth of just five per cent in the last four quarters.
The outlook in the short term does not appear to be very positive for
the sector. Rural demand is on the decline and the Centre for
Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) has already downscaled its
projection for agriculture growth in the current fiscal. Poor monsoon in
some states, too, is unlikely to help matters. Moreover, the general
57
slowdown in the economy is also likely to have an adverse impact on
disposable income and purchasing power as a whole. The growth of
imports constitutes another problem area and while so far imports in
this sector have been confined to the premium segment, FMCG
companies estimate they have already cornered a four to six per cent
market share. The high burden of local taxes is another reason
attributed for the slowdown in the industry
At the same time, the long term outlook for revenue growth is
positive. Give the large market and the requirement for continuous
repurchase of these products, FMCG companies should continue to
do well in the long run. Moreover, most of the companies are
concentrating on cost reduction and supply chain management. This
should yield positive results for them.
58