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14/11

, 2013.



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.

. 1997.

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2003. Foreign
Direct Investment in Southeastern Europe: How (and How Much) Can Policies Help?
(Dimitri G. Demekas, Balzs Horvth,Elina Ribakova, and Yi Wu). , ,

1 .
,
2003. 1.

- Dimitri G. Demekas,
Balzs Horvth, Elina Ribakova, and Yi Wu: Foreign Direct Investment in Southeastern Europe: How (and
How Much) Can Policies Help?, International Monetary Fund, 2005

 1: FDI 2003.
( USD)

e
FDI
38.385
2.729
16.114
33.638
4.813
3.321
14.206
2.894
52.752
1.690
21.890
3.302
3.205
5.763

FDI
31.488
2.063
11.875
23.550
3.316
2.170
8.848
1.441
25.080
611
7.547
1.067
742
1.064

17,97%
24,40%
26,31%
29,99%
31,10%
34,66%
37,72%
50,21%
52,46%
63,85%
65,52%
67,69%
76,85%
81,54%

: Dimitri G. Demekas,

Balzs Horvth, Elina Ribakova, and Yi Wu: Foreign Direct Investment in Southeastern
Europe: How (and How Much) Can Policies Help?, International Monetary Fund, 2005, 20

. ,
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20- . , UNCTAD-a FDI 13
US$ 1970. 58 US$ 1985. .
2000. FDI 1.300
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3
http://www.abrasmedia.info

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2.
,

Moodys, Standard and Poors, Euromoney, Institutional Investor,
Economist Intelligence Unit, International Country Risk Guide, Political Risk Services, Fitch
IBCA, Business Environment Risk Intelligence S.A., S.J. Rundt & Associates, and Control
Risks Group .4

.
, , , , ,
,
(country risk) (
ICRG, Coface CRT) . :

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, , ,
4

Suhejla Hoti. International Country Risk Guide: An Empirical Evaluation, Department of Economics,
University of Western Australia, 2003, . 3

: , .
, , .5
,
, , ,
. , ICRG, COFACE, ECR CRT.

2.1.

, . A. M. Best Company

. 6
ICRG (International Country Risk Guide),
:
1) GDP per capita;
2) GDP-;
3) ;
4) GDP;
5) GDP.7
.. ( RT- Country Risk Tier)
, - GDP per capita GDP.
ECR (Euromoney Contry Risk) :
1) ;
2) GNP;
3) ;
4) () ;
5) , .8
COFACE - GDP-a,
, (% GDP),
5

, , - ,
, , , 1997, 65-66
6
. . Best Methodology, A.M. Best Company, Inc,. New Jersey, 2011, . 2
7
International Country Risk Guide Methodology
8
http://www.euromoneycountryrisk.com/Methodology.aspx

(% GDP), (% GDP),
. 9

2.2.

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ECR :
1. ;
9

http://www.coface.com
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/08/country-risk-for-international-investing.asp
11
International Country Risk Guide Methodology
10

2. ;
3. ;
4. , ;
5. ;
6. .12
RT :
1. ;
2. ;
3. ;
4. ;
5. ;
6. ;
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COFACE

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2.2.

,
ICRG, .

.
: 14
1. % GDP-a;
12

http://www.euromoneycountryrisk.com/Methodology.aspx
AMB Country Risk Report, Bosnia and Herzegovina, 26. 2012.
14
International Country Risk Guide Methodology
13

2. % ;
3. % ;
4.
;
5. .

(COFACE, ECR),
(R). R
, . ECR
, -
,
, () ,
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).15

15

http://www.euromoneycountryrisk.com/Methodology.aspx

3.

. : International Country Risk Guide
(NY/London), Euromoney, Coface & Ducroire, BERI (Business Environment Risk Index),
Institutional Investor, Frost & Sullivan, Dun and Bradsheet, Moodys, Standard & Poors
Heritage Foundation, Transparency International.

. : 16
1. - , ,
, (Coface, Nord/Sud Export,
Europe Intelligence Unit);
2. -
(ICRG, ECR);
3. ;
4. -
,
,
, , ,
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,
- (
ICRG
)
.
International Country Risk Guide
16

2012

Michel Henry Bouchet- Country Risk Analysis: Sovereign Risk Rating, Ceram, Global Finance Center,

 (
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3.1. INTERNATIONAL COUNTRY RISK GUIDE-

ICRG 1980.
International Reports.

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ICRG 22 , - ,
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5. 22
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 .
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17

- Composite political, financial and economical risk rating
- Political risk indicators
FR- Financial risk indicators
ER- Economcial risk indicators.
( 100 )
, ( ) .

3.1.2. ICRG
12
. , ,
.

2: 18

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

17
18

(max)
12
12
12
12
12
6
6
6
6
6
6
4
100

International Country Risk Guide Methodology

International Country Risk Guide Methodology- 2-12

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3.1.3. ICRG
e
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.
je 50, , 25% (

3: GDP per capita

GDP per capita
%

250.00 +
5.0
200.00 249.99
4.5
150.00 199.99
4.0
100.00 149.99
3.5
75.00 99.99
3.0
50.00 74.99
2.5
40.00 49.99
2.0
30.00 39.99
1.5
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1.0
10.00 19.99
0.5
9.99
0.0

GDP per capita

GDP-
ICRG. . .
.
5.
250%
GDP-a ICRG.

4: GDP-a 5: GDP-a


%

GDP-a %

<2.0
10.0
6.0 +
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5.0 5.9
9.5
2.0 2.9
9.5
4.0 4.9
9.0
3.0 3.9
9.0
3.0 3.9
8.5
4.0 5.9
8.5
2.5 2.9
8.0
6.0 7.9
8.0
2.0 2.4
7.5
8.0 9.9
7.5
1.5 1.9
7.0
10.0 11.9
7.0
1.0 1.4
6.5
12.0 13.9
6.5
0.5 0.9
6.0
14.0 15.9
6.0
0.0 0.4
5.5
16.0 18.9
5.5
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5.0
19.0 21.9
5.0
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4.5
22.0 24.9
4.5
-1.0 -1.4
4.0
25.0 30.9
4.0
-1.5 -1.9
3.5
31.0 40.9
3.5
-2.0 -2.4
3.0
41.0 50.9
3.0
-2.5 -2.9
2.5
51.0 65.9
2.5
-3.0 -3.4
2.0
66.0 80.9
2.0
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1.5
81.0 95.9
1.5
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1.0
96.0 110.9
1.0
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0.5
111.0 129.9
0.5
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0.0
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0.0

5 %
.
a 10, GDP-a
( 4).
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% GDP-

% GDP-

4.0 +
10.0
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4.5
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9.5
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4.0
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9.0
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8.5
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3.0
0.0 0.9
8.0
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2.5
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2.0
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7.5
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1.5
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7.0
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1.0
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6.5
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0.5
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6.0
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0.0
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5.5
-5.0 -5.9
5.0

% GDP max 10 .

7: GDP
- %
- %
GDP

GDP

10.0 +
15.0
-16.0 -16.9
7.0
8.0 9.9
14.5
-17.0 -17.9
6.5
6.0 7.9
14.0
-18.0 -18.9
6.0
4.0 5.9
13.5
-19.0 -19.9
5.5
2.0 3.9
13.0
-20.0 -20.9
5.0
1.0 1.9
12.5
-21.0 -21.9
4.5
0.0 0.9
12.0
-22.0 -22.9
4.0
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11.5
-23.0 -23.9
3.5
-1.0 -1.9
11.0
-24.0 -24.9
3.0
-2.0 -3.9
10.5
-25.0 -26.9
2.5
-4.0 -5.9
10.0
-27.0 -29.9
2.0
-6.0 -7.9
9.5
-30.0 -32.5
1.5
-8.0 -9.9
9.0
-32.5 -34.9
1.0
-10.0 -11.9
8.5
-35.0 -39.9
0.5
-12.0 -13.9
8.0
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0.0
-14.0 -15.9
7.5

- 15 .
3.1.4. ICRG

8-12. :
20%- , 25-29.9%- , 30-34.9%- , 35-39.9%- ,
40% .
8:

15+
12 14,9
9 11,9
6 8,9
5 5,9
4 4,9
3 3,9
2 2,9
1 1,9
0,6 0,9
0,5 0,6

5
4,5
4
3,5
3
2,5
2
1,5
1
0,5
0

USD$
(
,

- )
(
USD$).
.

9: GDP
- %
- %
GDP

GDP

0.0 4.9
10.0
65.0 69.9
4.5
5.0 9.9
9.5
70.0 79.9
4.0
10.0 14.9
9.0
80.0 89.9
3.5
15.0 19.9
8.5
90.0 99.9
3.0
20.0 24.9
8.0
100.0 109.9
2.5
25.0 29.9
7.5
110.0 119.9
2.0
30.0 34.9
7.0
120.0 129.9
1.5
35.0 39.9
6.5
130.0 149.9
1.0
40.0 44.9
6.0
150.0 199.9
0.5
50.0 59.9
5.5
60.0 64.9
5.0
200+
0

10: % XGS19

%
USD$

0.0 4.9
10.0
.
5.0 8.9
9.5
9 10,
9.0 12.9
9.0
10.
13.0 16.9
8.5
17.0 20.9
8.0
21.0 24.9
7.5
25.0 28.9
7.0
29.0 32.9
6.5
33.0 36.9
6.0
37.0 40.9
5.5
41.0 44.9
5.0
45.0 48.9
4.5
49.0 52.9
4.0
53.0 56.9
3.5
57.0 60.9
3.0
61.0 65.9
2.5
66.0 70.9
2.0
71.0 75.9
1.5
76.0 79.9
1.0
80.0 84.9
0.5
85.0 +
0.0

19

XGS- Exports of Goods and Services

11: %

- %

25.0 plus
20.0 24.9
15.0 19.9
10.0 14.9
5.0 9.9
0.0 4.9
-0.1 -4.9
-5.0 -9.9
-10.0 -14.9
-15.0 -19.9
-20.0 -24.9
-25.0 -29.9
-30.0 -34.9
-35.0 -39.9
-40.0 -44.9
-45.0 -49.9
%

0.0 9.9
10.0 14.9
15.0 19.9
20.0 22.4
22.5 24.9
25.0 27.4
27.5 29.9
30.0 34.9
35.0 39.9
40.0 49.9
50 +

15,0
14,5
14,0
13,5
13,0
12,5
12,0
11,5
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10,5
10,0
9,5
9,0
8,5
8,0
7,5

- %

-50,0 -54,9
-55,5 -59,9
-60,0 -64,9
-65,5 -69,9
-70,0 -74,9
-75,0 -79,9
-80,0 -84,9
-85,0 -89,9
-90,0 -94,9
-95,0 -99,9
-100,0 -104,9
-105,0 -109,9
-110,0 -114,9
-115,0 -119,9
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10.0
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9.5
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9.0
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8.5
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8.0
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7.5
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7.0
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6.5
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6.0
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5.5
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5.0
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4.5
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4.0
-45.0 -49.9
3.5
-50.0 -54.9
3.0
-55.0 -59.9
2.5
-60.0 -69.9
2.0
-70.0 -79.9
1.5
-80.0 -89.9
1.0
-90.0 -99.9
0.5
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0.0
12:

7,0
6,5
6,0
5,5
5,0
4,5
4,0
3,5
3,0
2,5
2,0
1,5
1,0
0,5
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(8-12)

.
50,

25%. (

4.
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,
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2011.
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ICRG. , ,
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 AES Electric Limited, Velika Britanija E ;

2006-2016- 400 ;
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elektric; - Skay Srpska;
; ;
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ICRG, - ,
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2. - - 3
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http://www.economywatch.com
440,

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23

http://www.economywatch.com
http://www.prizma.ba

 1 . ,
3 .
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3. - 7

, ( 4 ).

2009. ,
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24

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25

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-100701terror.story

26

http://www.tip.ba/2012/12/06/u-bih-izreceno-11-presuda-za-terorizam/

5. - 10
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