ΔΙΠΛΩΜΑΤΙΚΗ ΕΡΓΑΣΙΑ 2010 ΠΕΡΙ ΑΚΙΝΗΤΗΣ ΠΕΡΙΟΥΣΙΑΣ

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71
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4.2: 87
4.3: 88-89
4.4: Euribor90
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3.1: 1999 200967
3.2:
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3.3: 1 (2003 2010)70
3.4: .. (2000 -2009)..73

iv
.iv
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vii
vii
1:
1.1 1
1.2
2
1.2.1 2
1.2.2 ..4
1.3 ..7
1.4 ...8
1.4.1 .9
1.4.2 ..13
1.4.3 14
1.4.4 .16
1.5 .17
1.6 .20
2:
2.1 .22
2.2 ...23
2.2.1 23
2.2.2 .25
2.2.3 29
2.2.4
31
2.3 ...34
2.3.1 .35
2.4 ..41
2.4.1 ...42
2.4.2 43
2.4.3 ..46
2.4.4 ..49
2.4.5 ..50
2.4.6 .51
2.5
.53
3:

3.1 ...55
3.2 .56
3.2.1 .56
3.2.2 57
3.3 60
3.3.1 .61
3.3.2 64
3.3.3 67
3.3.4 .69
3.4 73
3.5 ..74
3.6 ..76
4:

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79
4.2 ..80
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4.2.2 ...82
4.2.3 ...83
4.3 .85
4.3.1 .86
4.3.2 88
4.3.3 89
4.3.4 Euribor..90
4.3.5 91
4.3.6 ...93
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......................................................................................................96
10
1.1
Real Estate,
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30
, .,
, , 1998.
, ., Real Estate: -
, , 2001.
, ., , ., :
, , 2007.
, ., , , 2006.
Jevons, W., The Theory of Political Economy (1871) , Penguin Books, 1970.
Marshall, A., Principles of Economies (1890) , 8th Edition, Macmillan Co., 1959.
Shafer, T., Real Estate and Economics, Reston Publications, 1975.
Weimer, A., Hoyt, H., Bloom, G., Real Estate, 7th Edition, Wiley/Hamilton
Publication, 1978.
ICAP .., Real Estate, 2008.

, Real Estate
, 2006.

www. statistics.gr,
www. realestatenews.gr, Real Estate
31
2.1
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2001
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,
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1991,
.
33
2.1
1991 - 2001
2001
1991
2001/1991
17,58%
5.476.162
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99,61%
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34
2.1
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2001.
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2004 2005.
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2007 2008
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2.2.
35
2.2
(2004-2009)

2004
2005
2006
2007
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( 1999) 2000
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2007 .

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2008 ( 27,5%).
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2.2.3

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2.3
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2004

2005
2006
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2.2.4
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2.4

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2005
2006
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43
2.3
ICAP 2008

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2004,
:
1. 706 ,
2004 224,85 .,
2. 374 ,
53,11.,
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217,62 .,
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Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs),
Real Estate Investment Companies (REICs),
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(open -ended).

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(30.000) ,
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. , REITs

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(diversification)
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49
REITs . ,
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REITs .

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.

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. (2004) (
)
,
. ,

,
.
62
2.5

. ,
1991 2001 ,

.
2006, ,
,
.
,
.
,
.
,
, , ,
.
63
, .,
, , 1998.
, ., Real Estate: -
, , 2001.
, ., , ., :
, , 2007.

Publication, 1978.
(2006),
2004 2005
, Real Estate
, 2006
2009
ICAP .., Real Estate, 2008

www. statistics.gr,
64
3.1
,
.

.
, ,
, .
,

, ,

. ,
,

. , , ,
.
, ,
, ,
. ,
,
.

, .
65
3.2

,

.
:

, .

.
3.2.1

,

. Shafer (1975)

.

.

:
, ,
, ,
, ,
. ,
.

.
66

.
: , ,
, ,

( ).
.
,
, ,

.
,

.

.
: ,
, ,
.
()
. ,
,

.
3.2.2
,

. , Shafer (1975)

67
:
, ,
, , ,
, .
,

.
,
.

.
,

.
,
,
.
,

.
, Shafer (1975) ,
,
,
. ,
,

. ,

,
,
.
68
(2007)
2005-2006.
, ,
,
( ) .
(2001) ,

. : ,
,
, ,
, , ,
,
,
, , ,
, ,
.
,
(2007)
. ,
,
.
2001, 750.000

6.5% .

.
(2005), 18% .
,

. ,
, , .

. ,

69
. ,

.
2007.
(),
,
,

. , Shafer (1975)
.
,
.
,

. ,
.
,

.
,
, .

.

.
3.3
, , ,
,
.
,
, . ,
(, ...)
,
70

, .
, , ,
,
,
. ,
.
,
. ,
,
, . ,
,
.

, :
, , . ,
,

.
3.3.1
(Gross Domestic Product)
, ,
. ,
,
. ,

.
, .
71
3.1
-
( . .)

(
2000) (1)

(
) (2)
=
(2/1)*100
2000 Q1
2000 Q2
29.738,33
33.714,65
30.030,50
34.019,85
113,37
113,28
2000 Q3
30.171,48
34.141,92
113,16
2000 Q4
30.441,87
34.403,45
113,01
2001 Q1
2001 Q2
30.640,08
31.014,89
34.975,42
35.262,14
114,15
113,69
2001 Q3
31.359,78
35.687,28
113,80
2001 Q4
31.663,30
36.076,80
113,94
2002 Q1
2002 Q2
31.815,46
36.106,78
32.110,08
36.400,04
113,49
113,36
2002 Q3
32.742,38
36.987,52
112,97
2002 Q4
33.143,73
37.389,82
112,81
2003 Q1
2003 Q2
33.990,87
34.323,60
38.439,39
38.682,33
113,09
112,70
2003 Q3
34.686,24
38.984,26
112,39
2003 Q4
35.166,98
39.508,43
112,35
2004 Q1
2004 Q2
35.593,52
39.956,45
36.240,65
40.624,53
112,26
112,10
2004 Q3
36.634,75
40.902,47
111,65
2004 Q4
37.088,49
41.324,46
111,42
2005 Q1
2005 Q2
36.632,69
36.920,09
40.909,88
41.229,20
111,68
111,67
2005 Q3
37.351,98
41.747,56
111,77
2005 Q4
38.029,92
42.570,65
111,94
2006 Q1
2006 Q2
37.511,95
42.543,24
38.383,40
43.386,39
113,41
113,03
2006 Q3
38.818,64
43.889,91
113,06
2006 Q4
39.005,89
44.164,57
113,23
2007 Q1
2007 Q2
39.699,55
44.959,84
39.959,38
45.269,13
113,25
113,29
2007 Q3
40.255,10
45.650,33
113,40
2007 Q4
40.481,21
45.885,74
113,35
2008 Q1
2008 Q2
40.763,02
46.193,39
41.025,28
46.479,08
113,32
113,29
2008 Q3
41.080,26
46.539,23
113,29
2008 Q4
40.691,59
46.216,25
113,58
2009 Q1
2009 Q2
40.991,90
40.843,05
45.747,05
45.608,54
111,60
111,67
2009 Q3
40.739,16
45.393,14
111,42
2009 Q4
40.574,81
45.039,84
111,00
: , 2010
72
,
,

, , ,
.
, .

. ,

, .
,
,
. ,
,
.
, ,

. ,
,
.
, ,
.

. ,
, .
, ,
(deflation)
(,
2002).

,

.
(Paashe)
, 3.1.
3.1, 2000 ( )
73
2009, 0,3%
2008 1,2%
2008. , ,
, 2009
2%, ,
.

, ,
,
.
J.P. Hicks (1940) (economic
welfare) ,
.
3.3.2

.
. ,
.

,
.
.
. ,

,
.
,
. 4 5
% , . ,
,
,
. ,
74
(),

. ,
.
, ,
, ,
,
(. . , 2007).
,
, .
and Zhu (2007),
.
,

.

. Rubens Louson Yobaccio
(1998)
,
. Hoesli (1994)

. , Quan Ttiman (1999)
.
, ()

1959 ,
, ,
.

.
75
()

, 2005 = 100,00,
.

. ,

,
, . ,
,

.
,
. ,
,

. ,

,
,
. ,

. ,
.
,
,
, ,
. ,
. ,

,
(Robert M. Schwab, 1982).
76
3.3.3

, .
, ,
,
,
. , ,
.
,
,
, .
.
: OECD, 2010
3.1
1999-2009

2000 2009,
.
2009,
() 2009. 2009
77
1,1% 2008.
3.1,
,
,
-0,6% -1,7%
. 2009

. ,

(2007: 50,1%,2008: 54,1%, 2009: 54,6%).
,
( ),
1,3% 2009
2008. , , 2009
,
-0,6, -0,6 -0,3
.
3.3.4
,
.
,
. Keynes
Hicks , ,
- -
,
(, , 2003).
, Iacovello M. Minetti R. 2003,

, .
3.2 ,
.

78
.
.. 1990,
1980. ,
,
, ,
.
,
, ,

. ,

.
: ECB, 2010
3.2

(2000-2009)
,
3.2 3.3,
.
79
2009,
-
, .
,
2009 ,

.
: ECB, 2010
3.3
1
(2003 2010)

2009 3.2,
,

2010 4,67%, 86 2008.
,
, 3,08%, 184
2008. - ,
, 3,42%
80
3.2

( %)
2008
2010
2010
. 1

5,09
2,71
2,67

.
2008. .
2010
( .
)
-2,42
6,59
2,09
5,01
-1,58
3,81
1,90
1,87
-1,94
4,92
3,05
3,08
-1,84

-0,17
0,34
0,41

. 1 5

5,06
3,94
3,83

0,58
-1,23
7,30
6,67
6,39
-0,91
3,96
0,00
6,64
-1,32
5,53
4,60
4,67
-0,86
0,47
0,66
0,84
0,37
: , , 2010
,
-
Euribor,
. uribor (euro interbank offered rate)
(prime bank)
,
81
. EURIBOR
12 .
3.4
,
. ,
,
, .

,
. (..)
.
, ..
.
, ..
,
,
.
.
:
100.00 1980.
( Blue Chip),
,
.
blue chip
(Big Cap) .
82
3.4
.. (2000 2009)
(..) 2009
, ,
.
3.4, 2008
2009 .. ()
22,3%.
3.5
( 2005 = 100)
,

,
..
.
( )
CC (Classification of types of Construction)
, ,
.
83

,

, /
. ,
,

. , ,
, ,
.
196
1.300
, , ,
.
Laspeyres.

.
, ,
.
, ,

. ,
.
, ,

.
,
, ,
.

,

.
84
3.6

,
.
, , ,
.

. ,
, ,

. , ,
,
.
,

, .
85
., ., ,
., 2003.
, ., Real Estate: -
, , 2001.
, ., , ., :
, , 2007.
., ., ,
., 1998.
, .,
, 3 : :
, , 2007.
., , ,
., 2002.
., Haibin Zhu,
, 2 : :
, , 2007.
2009.
Iacoviello M. and Minetti R., 2003, The credit channel of monetary policy and the
housing market: international empirical evidence, Working paper 541, Boston College
Economics.
86
Hicks J.P., The valuation of social income, Economica, 1940.
Hoesli M., 1994, Real Estate as a hedge against inflation, Journal of Propert
Valuation and Investment, Vol.12, No. 3, pp. 51-9.
Quan D. and Titman S., 1999, Do real estate prices and stock prices move together?
An international analysis, Real Estate Economics, Vol.27, No. 2. pp. 183-207.
Rubens J., Louson D., and Yobaccio E., 1998, Measuring tha significance of
diversification gains, Journal of Real Estate Research, Vol.16, No.1, pp. 73-86.
Schwab M. R., 1982, Inflation Expectations and the Demand for Housing, The
American Economic Review, Vol. 72, No. 1, pp. 143-153.
www. statistics.gr,
www. oecd.org,
www. ecb.int,
87
4.1
,

, ,
,
. ,

, .

. ,

.

. ,
,

, 2000 2009.
.
,
,
. ,

.
.
88
4.2
(
) ,
,
. ,

.

,

. ,
,
, 2000 2009.
(Regression
Analysis), ,
(dependent
variable)
(independent variables).
,
(simple linear and multiple linear regression),
.
4.2.1
, ,

. ,
: (GDP),
(CPI), ,
Euribor.

. ,
, ,
Euribor .
89
. ,

, BIS (2003)
.
.
, ,

.
.
2000
2009.
, ,

,
.
, ,

.
k X1,
X2, X3,XK Y.
:
Yi = + 1 X1i + 2 2i + + k ki + i
i= 1,2,.., n i .

.
i= 1,2,3,.,n :
Yi = + i + i

.
X Y ,
.
90

(Ordinary Least Squares).
,
0.
,
. ,
,
.
,
,
. ,
,

.

,

.
, (simple linear
regression).
Y
X.
4.2.2

,
, R .

0 1. ,

. ,
,
91
.
R2 :
R2 = SSR / SST
, SSR (Sum of Squares of Regression)

SST (Sum of Squares Total)

. , SSR
SST,
. ,

.

,
.
4.2.3

X Y,

. ,
,
. ,
,

. i
:
: = 0
1 : 0
92
t : t = / se ( )
t (n-2) .
| t | < | t
n-2, /2
| .
, ,
,
X Y.

,

.
,
, (magnitude) () ,
(reliability). ,
, . ,
,
.
.

, .
,

(
p-value ).

,
,
,
. , p-value

.
,

, . ,
p-value
. p-value,
93

.
, p-value
,
.
,
.
,
, . , ,
p 0.05,
,
(5%). p 0.01
p 0.005 p 0.001
.
4.3
,
(
) ,
.
( 2005 = 100)
2000 2009.
:
o
(GDP),
(CPI),
Euribor
,
2000 2009.
,

94
. ,
() 2005 = 100,00, ,
2000 2009. ,

2000 2009. ,
uribor (euro interbank offered rate)
(prime bank)
,
. EURIBOR
12 ,
2000 2009. ,
.., 100.00 1980,
2000 2009.
,

. ,

.
40
, = 5%
t |t n-2, /2| = |t 38, 0.025| = 2,021.
4.3.1

( )
, ,
,
.
4.1.
p-value 0,36 t 0,91,
.
95
7,53 1
7,53 .
4.1

(Regression Statistics)
R
(Multiple R)
0,146107166
R
(R Square)
0,021347304
R
(Adjusted R Square)

(Typical Error)
-0,004406715
42,36580501

(Number of observations)
40
(Coefficients)

(Standard Error)
-P
-709,0101003
932,4243708
-0,760394218
0,451711452
7,526883771
8,267347535
0,910435147
0,368332233
0,021
.
0,21 %

.
, ()
( ), ,
. ,
,
. ,

2000 2009,
,
96
4.3.2
4.2, ,
.
p-value 0,0026 t -3,339,
.
-2,13 1

2,13 .
4.2

(Regression statistics)
R
(Multiple R)
R
(R Square)
R
(Adjusted R Square)

(Standard Error)

(Number of Observations)
0,461897996
0,213349759
0,192648437
37,98323974
40
(Coefficients)

(Standard Error)
- P
349,2078238
65,48087221
5,332975
4,67E-06
-2,1249513
0,661914576
-3,21031
0,002697
0,2133 ,
21,33 %
,
, 78,37 %
.
97
,

,
2000 2009.
4.3.3 -
4.3
( )
( ).
p-value 0,1857 t 1,347,
. 7,487
1
7,5 .
0,045,

.
4.3

R
(Multiple R)
0,21356514
R
(R Square)
0,045610069
R
(Adjusted R Square)
0,020494544

(Standard Error)
41,83734236

(Coefficients)
40

(Standard Error)
67,39139486
54,19626894
1,243469268
0,221312019
7,487516316
5,556208617
1,347594526
0,185769
98

. ,

. ,
.
, , ,

. , 2007

8,7% .
4.3.4 Euribor
4.4,
( ) Euribor
( ).
=5% Euribor
p-value 0,717 t 0,364,
. 2,086
1
2 .
0,0034
,

Euribor.
99
4.4
Euribor

R
(Multiple R)
R
(R Square)
R
(Adjusted R Square)

(Standard Error)

EURIBOR
0,05898569
0,003479312
-0,022744917
42,75080769
40
(Coefficients)

(Standard Error)
- P
133,2393495
19,4437332
6,852560072
3,89571E-08
2,086054296
5,7270412
0,364246427
0,717693079
,
Euribor,

,
, .
, 2007
,

.
4.3.5
, 4.5,
( )
.. ( ).
=5% ..
p-value 0,0036 t -3,099,
100
.
-0,017 1

0,017 .
4.5
..

R
(Multiple R)
R
(R Square)
R
(Adjusted R Square)

(Standard Error)

0,449273902
0,201847039
0,180843014
38,25993511
40
(Coefficients)

(Standard Error)
193,5008479
18,32448751
10,55969
7,35E-13
-0,017646682
0,005692501
-3,09999
0,003636
0,20
, 20 %

..

..
.

101
4.3.6

,
,
, . ,

,
.

.
()
,
(1) .. (2).

, 4.3.2 4.3.5,
,
.
4.6
,
p-value 0,0023
t -3,27, .
-1,95
1 ,
1,95 ,
, ..,
.
, ..
p-value 0,0031 t -3,16,
. -0,016
1
..,
0,016
, .
102
4.6

R
(Multiple R)
R
(R Square)
R
(Adjusted R Square)

(Standard Error)

0,617093182
0,380803996
0,347333941
34,15121613
40
(Coefficients)

(Standard Error)
381,4221544
59,74898207
6,38374314
1,90164E-07
-1,954147676
0,597580337
-3,270100363
0,002329234
-0,016139131
0,005102057
-3,16325978
0,003113196
0,38
, 38 %

.
0,34, 34 %
,

.
103
4.4

2000 2009. ,

.
,
o . ,

, ..,
.
,
Euribor,

,

. ,
,
,
.
,
,
,
,
104
. ..,
, . , 2004.
. ., ,
, . , 2003.
Gujarati D., Basic Econometrics, McGraw Hill Publishing Co., 1978.

Maddala G.S and Lahiri Kaial, Introduction to Econometrics, 4 th Edition, Publ.
Wiley, 2009.
Newbold P., Statistics for Business and Econometrics, Prentice Hall Inc.,
Englewood Cliffs, 1991.

(Bank of International Settlements), www.bis.org
105
.
. ., ,
, . , 2003.
. ..,
, . , 2004.
, .,
, , 1998.
., ., ,
., 2003.
, ., Real Estate: -
, , 2001.
, ., , ., :
, , 2007.
., ., ,
., 1998.
, .,
, 3 : :
, , 2007.
, ., , , 2006.
., , ,
., 2002.
., Haibin Zhu,
, 2 : :
, , 2007.
106
.
Gujarati D., Basic Econometrics, McGraw Hill Publishing Co., 1978.
Jevons, W., The Theory of Political Economy (1871) , Penguin Books, 1970.
Maddala G.S and Lahiri Kaial, Introduction to Econometrics, 4 th Edition, Publ.
Wiley, 2009.
Newbold P., Statistics for Business and Econometrics, Prentice Hall Inc.,
Englewood Cliffs, 1991.
Marshall, A., Principles of Economies (1890) , 8th Edition, Macmillan Co., 1959.
Publication, 1978.
.
Iacoviello M. and Minetti R., 2003, The credit channel of monetary policy and the
housing market: international empirical evidence, Working paper 541, Boston College
Economics.
Hicks J.P., The valuation of social income, Economica, 1940.
Hoesli M., 1994, Real Estate as a hedge against inflation, Journal of Propert
Valuation and Investment, Vol.12, No. 3, pp. 51-9.
Quan D. and Titman S., 1999, Do real estate prices and stock prices move together?
An international analysis, Real Estate Economics, Vol.27, No. 2. pp. 183-207.
Rubens J., Louson D., and Yobaccio E., 1998, Measuring tha significance of
diversification gains, Journal of Real Estate Research, Vol.16, No.1, pp. 73-86.
Schwab M. R., 1982, Inflation Expectations and the Demand for Housing, The
American Economic Review, Vol. 72, No. 1, pp. 143-153.
107
.
ICAP .., Real Estate, 2008.
, Real Estate
, 2006.
(2006),
2004 2005.
2009.
.
www.bis.org, (Bank of International Settlements)
www. ecb.int,
www. oecd.org,
www. statistics.gr,
108

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: Real Estate, . , 2001

ICAP .., Real Estate, 2008.

Shafer, T., Real Estate and Economics, Reston Publications, 1975.

Shafer, T., Real Estate and Economics, Reston Publications, 1975.

Hicks J.P., The valuation of social income, Economica, 1940.

Gujarati D., Basic Econometrics, McGraw Hill Publishing Co., 1978.

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