11/30/2010

Gim pht v By Thanh khon

Ni dung
1. Cc khi nim c bn v nghin cu in hnh 2. By thanh khon ko theo gim pht 3. Gim pht dn n by thanh khon 4. Gii php g nhm x l cc trc trc ny

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Cc trng thi kinh t v m qua m hnh AS-AD

Cn bng ngn hn v di hn H cch suy thoi v lm pht Lm pht cu ko v chi ph y Suy thoi pha cu v pha cung Gim pht pha cu v pha cung

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IS-LM, Chnh sch Tin t v By Thanh khon

M hnh IS-LM
Chnh sch tin t m rng c tc ng gim li

sut v tng sn lng.

By tin hay By thanh khon (Liquidity trap)
Li sut cn bng rt thp v ng LM nm

ngang (Md nm ngang trn (r, M/P), v I dc ng trn (r, I)). Chnh sch tin t mt tc dng

Gim pht
Gim pht (Deflation) l hin tng mc gi

chung ang c xu hng gim xung trn bnh din rng, hay t l lm pht l mt con s m. Nguyn nhn:
Gim pht pha cung (a supply-side deflation) i

cng vi bng n kinh t (thay v suy thoi), do gia tng nng sut, gim chi ph,... Gim pht pha cu (a demand-side deflation) i km st gim tng chi tiu, suy thoi, gia tng tht nghip.

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Hiu ng Fisher v Gim pht

Phng trnh Fisher: i = r + e Hiu ng Fisher? Hm hiu ng Fisher:
Nu lm pht k vng (e) v lm pht thc t ()

tng ng nhau, v r khng qu dao ng, th i gim khi lm pht gim. Nu t l gim pht bng hay ln hn r, hiu ng Fisher d on i s bng zero.
Li sut thc r = chi ph vay v cho vay thc (

iu chnh lm pht).

Mi quan h ko theo
1. By thanh khon dn n gim pht. 2. Gim pht ko theo by thanh khon.

Gim pht

By tin

Mi trc trc ko theo u to ra thch thc v

chnh sch.

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Cc nghin cu in hnh
Irving Fisher (1933) Debt-Deflation
i Khng hong (Great Depression) l nguyn

nhn to ra bi vng xon i xung theo gi c gim lm tng gnh nng n thc, v iu ny ko theo hin tng gim pht trm trng hn.
Hyman Minsky (1986) Minsky Moment
Vng xon bt n nh lp i lp li theo trong

nhng thi k kinh t yn n lm tng tnh t mn v n nn v v vy mi ngi tng cc cng c n by, t n lt chng m ng cho cc cuc khng hong.

Cc nghin cu in hnh
Richard Koo (2008) Balance-sheet Recession
C mt thp nin b nh mt Nht v i Khng hong

c nguyn nhn ch yu t tai ha ca bng cn i

Gim gi ti sn (hin tng suy thoi bng cn i) y cc

cng ty t ti a ha li nhun sang ti thiu ha n. ko theo gim tng cu.

Dng ngn lu thng dng tr n gc thay v u t mi, Tng cu yu v nhu cu vay (ngay c li sut thp) cng yu

nn kinh t gim pht.

Nn kinh t yu lm cho gi ti sn gim su hn, ko theo

ph sn hng lot v NHTU ni lng chnh sch tin t.

Nhiu v ph sn v li sut thp, nhiu ngn hng gnh chu

n xu. Nn kinh t ri vo vng xon gim pht by thanh khon.

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Cc nghin cu in hnh
Gauti B. Eggertsson and Paul Krugman (2010)

Debt, Deleveraging, and the Liquidity Trap: A Fisher-Minsky-Koo approach

M hnh Keynes Mi Debt-driven slumps: N v

vn gim nhanh cc n by lm kim nn tng cu. Gim pht-N Fisher, by thanh khon, nghch l tit kim, s nhn Keynes, tnh hp l ca chnh sch m rng ti kha. Nim tin nhm gii quyt trc trc hin hnh v soi ri cc kch bn qu kh (Thp nin b nh mt Nht v i Khng hong)

T by thanh khon n gim pht

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C ch by thanh khon ko theo gim pht din ra nh th no?

By Thanh khon: Li sut danh ngha i tin gn hay

bng zero nn gim cung tin khng th chuyn thnh ngun cho u t v chnh sch tin t mt vai tr kch thch kinh t - gim cu. Gim cu dn n gim pht. Gim pht ko di kt hp vi li sut i qu thp s dn n:
Vng xon sn lng nh n v suy thoi K vng gim pht to ra li sut thc r gia tng nh

hng u t I v h cch suy thoi m rng

Suy thoi ko di to ra gim pht tip tc, gim pht

lm tng r v Y ngy cng thp hn trong khi chnh sch tin t mt tc dng.

Ti sao chnh sch tin t truyn thng khng hu hiu?

Chnh sch tin t truyn thng
C ch tng cung tin thng qua nghip v OMOP (lm

tng MB v tc ng s nhn).
Doanh nghip, c nhn, v ngn hng khng c ng

c gi tin vt nhu cu giao dch m u t vo TSTC sinh li (tri phiu, c phiu) iu ny ch gn vi gi nh i>0 hay khng qu thp.
Khi chi ph c hi ca vic gi tin i gn hay bng

zero, chuyn g s xy ra?

Ngi ta s gi tin ngay c vt s nhu cu tin cn

cho giao dch. V i khng th m nn gii hn zero chnh l vn .

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By thanh khon dn n suy thoi gim pht v trc trc h thng ti chnh nh th no?
Gim pht k vng lm tng gi tr thc ca cc

khon n. Kh nng tr n ca ngi vay ngy cng xu do mc tiu dng v u t gim su hn.
D tr ngha v hin hu vi i thp, nhng phi tr vn gc

vi gi tr thc ang tng ln, lm gia tng tnh d v ca h thng ti chnh ph sn, v n (Debt-Deflation: Gim pht i cng vi gi tr thc ca cc khon n tng theo).

Ngn hng gia tng dn cc khon n xu ct gim

tn dng v chu trnh ko theo gim u t v sn lng. By thanh khon c th xy ra ngay c i cha t zero v vic gi cc TSTC v gia tng ri ro h thng ti chnh i km.

Ph by thanh khon nh th no?

Nh phn tch: by thanh khon dn n suy

thoi gim pht v trc trc h thng ti chnh Vt ra khi by thanh khon nh th no?
Paul Krugman: to ra lm pht k vng s gip nn

kinh t thot khi by thanh khon. Quan im cc nh kinh t tin t v keynes

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Ph by thanh khon Quan im cc nh kinh t tin t

Ni lng tin t (quantitative easing): NHTU xc

nh mc tiu gia tng t l cung tin, bm thanh khon vo nn kinh t (Friedman: Money gift).
1927: sp th trng chng khon US c

nguyn nhn t chnh sch tin t tht cht 1933-41: c phiu US tng 140% nh chnh sch ni lng tin t thng qua gia tng c s tin 2001-06: Nht cng p dng ni lng tin t
Thng qua OMOP, tng cng mua cc TSTC

nh tri phiu di hn.

Vt ra khi by thanh khon nh th no?

Quan im Keynes: Chnh sch ti kha m rng nhm kch vo tng cu.
1933: Tng thng Franklin Roosevelt v New Deal

vi cc chng trnh vic lm. Chnh ph Nht vi khon chi 20% GDP 2005.

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T gim pht n by thanh khon

Nht Bn Mt thp nin b nh mt

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Li sut Hoa K ang xung rt thp

Vn
Trc th chin II, gim pht thng xy ra nh

lm pht. Gim pht quay li vo nhng nm 1990 (Nht Bn) v l mt hin tng kh ci thin. Ti sao gim pht l mt trc trc? Ti sao kh kt thc c gim pht?

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Gim pht dn n by thanh khon v trc trc kinh t

Gim pht trong hu ht trng hp l tc ng ca

st gim tng cu. Gim pht lm gim tng chi tiu, suy thoi, gia tng tht nghip. Suy thoi gim pht (%P<0) khc suy thoi thng thng (%P>0). Gim pht lm i tin n hay gn zero by thanh khon v to trc trc cho nn kinh t v chnh sch. Vn :
Trnh nn kinh t ri vo gim pht Tr gim pht nh th no?

Ngn chn gim pht nh th no?

Gim pht do sc cu thp v ang c xu hng

suy gim. Ben S. Bernanke: The best way to get out of trouble is not to get into it in the first place
Hm : s dng chnh sch ti kha v tin t khi

cn thit h tr tng chi tiu, c gng s dng ton dng ngun lc v duy tr lm pht thp v n nh.

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Ngn chn gim pht nh th no?

Th nht: Duy tr vng m (buffer zone) v

khng nn c gng a lm pht v mc zero. Vng m:

Li ch: trnh nguy c tng cu gim ngoi tm

kim sot c th y nn kinh t vo suy thoi gim pht v i tin n zero. Chi ph: c th a nn kinh t vo tnh trng lm pht cao hn d kin.

Ngn chn gim pht nh th no?

Th hai: Gi n nh ti chnh ca nn kinh t. Irving Fisher (1933): s lin kt tim tng gia

khng hong ti chnh (do bn tho ti sn v gi ti sn gim) vi s st gim tng cu v mc gi chung.

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Ngn chn gim pht nh th no?

Th ba: Khi lm pht thp v cc nn tng ca

kinh t bt ng suy gim th cn ra tay kp thi v tht tch cc nhm ngn s trt dc vo gim pht v cc trc trc i km
(Orphanides and Wieland, 2000; Reifschneider and Williams, 2000; Ahearne et al., 2002).

Khc nhau v phn ng:

Nht cui thp nin 80 Hoa K 2008

Gauti B. Eggertsson and Paul Krugman (2010) Debt, Deleveraging, and the Liquidity Trap: A Fisher-MinskyKoo approach
N bao nhiu l an ton? Cuc khng hong

do bt ng gim n by. Sc cu thp v ang suy gim ai phi chi tiu nhiu hn b vo (i=0 vn cha ). Debt-Deflation+Minsky Moment+Balance Sheet Recession. Chnh sch ti kha m rng s hiu qu:
Hiu ng v m ca vic gim n by c tnh tm

thi. Ln t chi tiu t nhn s khng xy ra.

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Nh li
Phn ng ca Chnh ph v Fed i vi cuc suy thoi Hoa K hin l ti tranh lun. Gi kch thch kinh t 780 t USD ph hp cha? Chng trnh gii cu cc ti sn trc trc c hu ch? Fed c nn tng cung tin sm hn khng? C nn cho php Lehman Brother tht bi? Cu tr li nm l thuyt kinh t v ngi bn hi l ai. 1. Keynes Mi (The New Keynesian) 2. Ch ngha tin t (The Monetarism) 3. C in Mi (The New Classical)

Kt lun
By thanh khon ko theo gim pht v ngc

li. Mi trc trc u to ra thch thc v x l chnh sch. Cn nguyn gy nn by thanh khon hay gy nn gim pht n t u? (Bong bng u c?) C th qun l v kim sot bong bng u c khng? (c/khng)

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