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IS*-LM*
IS-LM-CM Small Open Economy Capital Mobility

MundellFleming Model
Professor Robert Mundell The 1999 Nobel Prize

Winner "for his analysis of monetary and fiscal policy under different exchange rate regimes and his analysis of optimum currency areas"

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H phng trnh
IS-LM-CM
Y = C(Y-T) + I(r) + G + NX(e) M/P = L(Y, r) r = r* Ta (Y, r) Ta (Y, e)

IS*-LM*
Y = C(Y-T) + I(r*) + G + NX(e) M/P = L(Y, r*)

Ta IS-LM-CM v IS*-LM*
r LM

r = r*

CM

IS Y Y

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Vn hnh chnh sch trong IS*-LM*

Fiscal Policy
Fixed ER Hiu qu

Monetary Policy V ch

ER Policy
1. Devaluation (Ph gi) 2. Revaluation (Nng gi) Lm th no ng tin ca h ln gi/gim gi?

Floating ER

V ch

Hiu qu

Vn di chuyn t do v t gi th ni

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Vn di chuyn t do v t gi th ni

Vn di chuyn t do v t gi c nh

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Vn di chuyn t do v t gi c nh

Hy nh chnh sai st
Cc tc ng ca mt chnh sch n nh ha kinh t ty thuc vo mc chuyn ng ca dng vn v vai tr ca h thng t gi hi oi. i vi trng hp vn di chuyn

hon t do, h thng tin t m t gi c th ni theo th

trng, cc cng c ti kho l mt chnh sch hu hiu nht x l cc trng hp khng hong. Ngc li, trong mt h thng m t gi b n nh mt cch c nh, cc chnh

sch tin t ng vai tr then cht trong khi cc chnh sch

can thip ti kho l v ch

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Thi bo kinh t Si Gn 21/10/1999, Nguyn Vn Ph, tr. 40

Theo Robert Mundell, nh kinh t hc ot gii Nobel Kinh t nm 1999, th

cn phi xy dng nhng nguyn tc cho cc chnh sch kinh t v m

ca mt quc gia. Khi mt nc phi ng u vi nhiu vn nn kinh t th phi c cng c chnh sch cho tng mc tiu. Mi cng c hng n mt mc tiu v c th lm xu i mc tiu khc. V d, mt nc ang ri vo tnh trng kinh t tr tr ng thi thm ht cn cn thanh

ton th mt chnh sch m rng tin t s c hiu qu lm tng thu nhp

nhng li lm xu i cn cn thanh ton; trong khi mt chnh sch tng li sut c tc dng thu ht vn u t, cn bng cn cn thanh ton nhng li lm trm trng hn tnh trng tr tr v tht nghip.

Nn kinh t m nh, t gi th ni v vn di chuyn t do

Nh chnh sch 1: tng sn lng thc, chng ta nn

p dng chnh sch ti kho m rng. Nhng m chnh sch ny thng xy ra hin tng s ln t (crowding out effect). Nhng do vn di chuyn hon ton t do, chnh sch ti kho m rng khng ko theo tng li sut v chn p u t. Do vy m bt k s gia tng chi tiu chnh ph hay ct gim thu s c tc ng trc tip lm tng sn lng thc

Nh chnh sch 2: Anh cn phi xem li ghi ch bi

ging v kinh t v m thi k i hc. Chnh sch ti kho khng bao gi c hiu qu trong c ch t gi hi oi th ni v vn di chuyn t do - mt s kt hp hon ho to ra hin tng s ln t hon ton

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Nn kinh t m nh, t gi c nh v vn di chuyn t do

Nh chnh sch 1: tng sn lng thc, chng ta nn p dng

chnh sch tin t m rng. Nhng m chnh sch ny thng xy ra hin tng by tin (liquidity trap). Nhng do vn di chuyn hon ton t do, chnh sch tin t m rng khng ko theo gim li sut v thc y u t. Do vy m bt k s gia tng cung tin ca ngn hng nh nc s khng c tc ng trc tip lm tng sn lng thc
Nh chnh sch 2: Anh cn phi xem li ghi ch bi ging v kinh t

v m thi k i hc. Chnh sch tin t khng bao gi c hiu qu trong c ch t gi hi oi c nh v vn di chuyn t do. Tuy nhin, vn anh cp n v chnh sch tin t m rng khng ko theo gim li sut v thc y u t v khng c tc ng trc tip lm tng sn lng thc chnh xc l mt c ch hon ho ca hin tng by tin

So snh vi kinh t ng
Trong trng hp ca mt nn kinh t m, nh, vn di chuyn t do, di c ch t gi hi oi th ni, chnh sch tin t c tc ng mnh hn so vi chnh sch tin t trong nn kinh t ng, nhng chnh sch ti kho th yu hn; iu ngc li l ng trong c ch t gi hi oi c nh

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Ba iu khng th xy ra ng thi (The Impossible Trinity)

C ch t gi hi oi c nh Chnh sch tin t c lp Vn di chuyn hon ton t do

Free capital flows

Mt nc phi chn mt cnh ca tam gic v t b gc i din.
Option 1 (U.S.) Option 2 (Hong Kong)

Independent monetary policy

Option 3 (China)

Fixed exchange rate

Ba iu khng th xy ra ng thi
C ch t gi hi oi c nh Chnh sch tin t c lp Vn di chuyn hon ton t do

Liu chnh sch v hiu ha (Sterilization Policy) c gip t c 3 mt cch bn vng?

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Asia confronts the impossible trinity

Ila PatnaiK and Ajay Shah (2010)
11 quc gia: India, China, Hong Kong, Taiwan,

Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam, v Korea. Hai khi nim:
De facto (what they do) De jure (what they promise to do)

De facto: ang hng theo hi nhp nhanh CA

m khng c s linh hot trong c ch t gi dn n hin tng chnh sch tin t thun chu k khi dng vn thun chu k.

Bi tp thc hnh 1
Dng m hnh Mundell-Fleming, biu din iu g xy ra vi Y, e v NX trong: (1) C ch t gi hi oi c nh; v (2) C ch t gi hi oi th ni, trc thay i sau y:
Kinh t ct cnh v ang trn pht trin mnh

khin nim tin v tng lai ca ngi tiu dng kh quan hn v do vy h tiu dng nhiu hn.

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Bi tp thc hnh 2
Dng m hnh Mundell-Fleming, biu din iu g xy ra vi Y, e v NX trong: (1) C ch t gi hi oi c nh; v (2) C ch t gi hi oi th ni, trc thay i sau y:
Hi nhp v thu quan c ct gim cng vi

thu nhp ngy cng ci thin, nhiu gia nh mun mua xe hi ngoi nhp hn l xe sn xut v lp rp trong nc.

Bi tp thc hnh 3
Dng m hnh Mundell-Fleming, biu din iu g xy ra vi Y, e v NX trong: (1) C ch t gi hi oi c nh; v (2) C ch t gi hi oi th ni, trc thay i sau y:
Vic cc ngn hng y mnh pht trin h thng

my rt tin t ng v chnh sch tr lng qua ti khon ca chnh ph lm gim cu tin.

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Bi tp thc hnh 4
Chnh sch ca cc nc ln c th nh hng

n cc bin s th gii trong c li sut th gii (r*). Di gc ca kinh t v m, iu g c th lm cho r* thay i? S dng m hnh IS*-LM*, so snh tc ng ca mt s st gim (hay tng) r* n Y, e v NX i vi mt nn kinh t nh-m v vn di chuyn t do trong c hai c ch t gi hi oi c nh v th ni?

Bi tp thc hnh 5
Gii thch ti sao chnh ph khng th kim sot

c c cung tin v t gi khi c s di chuyn ca dng vn quc t. Bn s t vn iu g vi chnh ph khi c mt n lc kim gi t gi hi oi c nh v ng thi vi kim sot lm pht?

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Bi tp thc hnh 6
Combo l mt nn kinh t nh v m ca, khng c hn ch ngoi thng v cc dng ti chnh. Ngi ta va khm ph ra rng loi go xut khu v cng l sn phm ch lc ca nc ny do c im th nhng v sinh thi vi cht lng c bit khi s dng c th hn ch mt cch hiu qu cc loi bnh ung th. T gi hi oi ca nc ny c xc nh gn vi c ch t gi hi oi c nh.
Hy xem xt tc ng ca khm ph ny i vi ti khon vng lai, tng sn lng trong ngn hn vi iu kin l khng c bt k mt chnh sch can thip no.

Bi tp ln
Xt mt nn kinh t m nh, vn di chuyn t do, trong mc gi trong nc v nc ngoi khng i. iu g xy ra cho tit kim quc dn (S), li sut thc (r), u t (I), xut khu rng (NX), t gi hi oi danh ngha (e), v cung tin (M) khi mi s kin sau y xy ra nu t gi hi oi th ni ? iu g xy ra nu t gi hi oi c nh ?
1. 2. 3. 4.

Chnh ph tng thu T Ngn hng trung ng tng cung tin M Chnh ph a ra cc bin php hn ch nhp khu Chnh ph cc nc ln tng thm ht ngn sch

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Tm tt kt qu bi tp ln
Tng T
e c nh e th ni

Tng MS
e c nh e th ni

Tng NX
e c nh e th ni

Tng r*
e c nh e th ni

S r I NX e MS Y

0 = r* 0 0 0

= r* 0 0 0

0 = r* 0 0 0 0 0

= r* 0

= r* 0 0

0 = r* 0 0 0 0

0 0

S(Y) = I(r*) + NX(e) v S = I + NX

S = Y C(Y-T) - G

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