Disciplinary Research Paper

Yashan Mai Professor : Caitlin Holmes Course: PROV 502 11/30/2013 Page number: 5

CONVERSATION !e"un#it$ is #efine# as the %robabilit$ of re"ogni&e# "on"e%tion in a menstrual "$"le among "ou%les ha'ing regular un%rote"te# inter"ourse ()ini*1+2,-. /t is use# as a measure of a "ou%le0s fe"un#it$ or biologi" "a%a"it$ for re%ro#u"tion.1 (Ra2esh3ari 4un#aram* 2012-. 5hen treating the #ata in human fe"un#it$* statisti"ians use mo#els to anal$&e %regnan"$ rate* the time it ta6es to be %regnant an# fa"tors that affe"t %regnan"$. 7suall$* sim%le mo#els 3ere use# fre8uentl$ in the %ast. 4u"h mo#els in'ol'e hierar"hi"al 9a$esian mo#els (a #$nami" mo#el 3ith a 6in# of time series %re#i"ts metho#- an# sur'i'al mo#els (sur'i'e# mo#els are statisti"al mo#els #eal 3ith anal$sis of time to e'ents* su"h as #eath in biologi"al organisms an# failure in me"hani"al s$stem-. !or the %ur%ose of im%ro'ing mo#els* statisti"ians ma#e %rogress in "ombining a%%roa"h an# #oing transformations to get i#eal results. 4un#aram * Ra2esh3ari* :le;an#er* an# )ermaine (2012-* "ombine# the t3o statisti"al a%%roa"hes mentione# abo'e together an# rela;e# some assum%tions an# limits that o""ur in the tra#itional mo#els. <he$ "all this ne3 "ombine# a%%roa"h a biologi"all$ 'ali# #is"rete sur'i'e# mo#el. <he ne3 mo#el "ombines the t3o mo#els b$ %ermitting the in'estigators to obtain the #istribution of time=to=%regnan"$(<<P- mo#el (mo#el that measure the time to get %regnant- an# #a$=s%e"ifi" (measurements of 'aluables

relate# to %regnan"$ in e'er$ single #a$- %robabilities in the fertile 3in#o3 into a single mo#el. <his ne3 mo#el has the a#'antage of better e;%laining the #ail$ 'ariation in "on"e%tion. :nother e;am%le of transformation of mo#els is sho3n b$ >omini6* Rosalie* an# Pai(200?-. <he$ use "ontrol=an#=#ifferen"e mo#el (the mo#el 3ith one 'ariable "ontrolle# an# one 'aries so 3e "an easil$ fin# the element that lea#s to "hange- e;ten# from tra#itional statisti"al mo#els so that their ne3 mo#el "an be use# in #ifferent elements that "om%are grou%e# #ata sets on human fe"un#it$. 4imilarl$* M"@ain* :le;an#er* Ragesh3ari* an# )ermain(2012- also "reate "ure mo#els ("ombination an# transformation of se'eral basi" mo#els- that "ontains se'eral basi" mo#els to anal$&e grou%e# sur'i'al #ata rather than single mo#el using semi %arametri" transformation te"hni8ue (original mo#el "hanges half of %arameter to mat"h another mo#el-. Colle"ting the materials abo'e* / foun# tra#itional mo#els "ontaine# hierar"hi"al mo#el* sur'i'al mo#el* basi" "ure mo#els an# 9a$esian mo#el. <he ne3 #e'elo%e# mo#els 3ere hierar"hi"al 9a$esian mo#el("ombination of hierar"hi"al mo#el an# sur'i'al mo#el-* 9a$esian hierar"hi"al #$nami" mo#el* "ure mo#els 3ith 'arious #istribution(base# on basi" "ure mo#els- an# un"onstraine# hierar"hi"al 9a$esian mo#el(transformation of 9a$esian mo#el-. /n these #ifferent "ombination an# transformation* / 3on#ere# 3hat %ur%ose an# moti'ation #ro'e the authors to tr$ su"h "hanges.

EXIGENCY

5hile "ombining mo#els ha'e their o3n a#'antages* / "an figure out that #ifferent "ombinations an# transformations of mo#els ha'e #ifferent resear"h targets an# are "reate# base# on the %rin"i%les of sol'ing %roblems on %arti"ular resear"h %roblems in human fe"un#it$. >omini6* Rosalie* an# Pai(200?- ha# the %ur%ose of obtaining an estimation of the %robabilit$ of %regnan"$ e'er$ #a$ in the same %erio# of %regnant "$"le. /n or#er to narro3 the target 3in#o3 of be"oming %regnant* the$ "reate# the "ontrol=an#=#ifferent mo#el (one 'ariable remains stable an# the other "hanges in or#er to see the #ifferen"es- so that the grou%s in it ha'e the same situation in "ontra"e%ti'e. Other a%%roa"hes su"h as 9a$esian mo#el ma$ 3or6 for "om%arison of #ifferent %erio#s. 9e"ause the$ are effi"ient 3ithin the same %robabilit$ "$"le for %regnan"$. :##itionall$* 9a$esian hierar"h$ mo#els are goo# at e;%laining the nature of tem%orar$ #ata an# "oo%erate 3ith other mo#els that are useful in %re#i"ting fe"un#it$. :""or#ing to 9orfot* )ui#o* an# 9runo(2010-* the target of the mo#el is to sol'e the %roblem in tem%oral beha'ior in ea"h 3oman on as%e"ts of sense lengths (the time %erio# that the$ get to 6no3 the$0re %regnant- gathere# b$ the authors. <he mo#els are 3ell #esigne# an# "an also be "ombine# 3ith a fe"un#it$ abilit$ mo#el (mo#el that e'aluate fe"un#it$ rate-. 4in"e the target is #ifferent as%e"ts of series lengths* 9a$esian mo#els #on0t ta6e a#'antage of the "om%arisons bet3een #ifferent as%e"ts of the #ata. 9ase# on the metho#s #is"usse# abo'e* / fin# that ea"h mo#el transformation (3hene'er "ombinations or e;tensions are use# on the original mo#elhas its o3n a#'antages an# #isa#'antages #e%en#ing on the target resear"h %roblem in human fe"un#it$. Choosing the right transformation ("reating ne3 mo#els- is in fa"t

base# on the %ur%ose an# re8uirement of the resear"h %roblem the statisti"ian is a##ressing. /n m$ #e%artment* %rofessor Carr fo"using on #ata 'isuali&ation "oul# hel% me on multi%le mo#el stu#$ sin"e / "hoose his "ourse this term an# learne# man$ mo#els that hel%e# me in #ata 'isuali&ation. CONTRIBUTIONS Multi%le mo#els 3ill greatl$ hel% statisti"ians in stu#$ing human fe"un#it$. /n areas of human fe"un#it$* birth rate is im%ortant an# multi%le mo#els "an be use# to %re#i"t future birth rate 3ith %resent birth rate. 4e"on#l$* time=to=%regnan"$ an# #a$=s%e"ifi" %robabilit$ are fa"tors that e'aluate the %ossibilit$ of getting %regnan"$. /n this as%e"t* multi%le mo#els are effe"ti'e in measuring obser'ations of e;a"t time=to=%regnan"$ an# #a$=s%e"ifi" %robabilit$ #ata. <hir#l$* multi%le mo#els "an be use# in %o%ulation e"olog$ that anal$&e #ifferent #istribution %o%ulation. !inall$* in biologi"al life "$"le * multi%le mo#els "an be a%%lie# in both 4tan#ar# an# nonstan#ar# "$"le a""or#ing to its a#'antage of "ombination of mo#els. :lso* multi%le mo#els "oul# hel% %eo%le learn about %regnan"ies for more su""essful births an# hel% go'ernments manage %o%ulation gro3ing rates.

FUTURE RESEARCH POSSIBI ITIES O'er the last ten $ears* human fe"un#it$ be"ame a hot to%i" both in biostatisti"s an# statisti"s. a""or#ing to the fre8uentl$ #is"usse# to%i"s in biostatisti"s. 4in"e the lo3er rate of %regnan"$ globall$* Peor6l are more an# more "on"erne# 3ith their %re%aration of %roblems in fe"un#it$. >omini6* Rosalie* an# Pai (200?-* first "ame u%

3ith Pae#iatri" an# %erinatal e%i#emiolog$ (resear"h on "hil#ren0s illness-1 3hi"h brings u% the fo"us on %regnan"$. /n 2012* statisti"ians li6e 4un#aram* Ra2esh3ari* :le;an#er* an# )ermaine ma#e efforts in #ifferent a%%roa"hes to mo#eling human fe"un#it$. <his %erio# of time till no3 gathers great #is"ussions in %regnan"$. Currentl$* more an# more statisti"ians an# biostatisti"ians are fo"using their e$es on human fe"un#it$ mo#eling.

/n the fiel# of human fe"un#it$* #ifferent multi%le=mo#els are use# to better anal$&e the %roblem in %regnan"$. Ho3 the$ "ombine the mo#els is "ru"ial to the %ur%ose of resear"h. >ifferent metho#s of "ombination an# "hoi"es of mo#el are all 3orth being #is"usse#. <he original moti'ation for "reating multi%le=mo#els is the #ifferent target %roblem in human fe"un#it$ that 3aite# to be sol'e# b$ statisti"ians. /n or#er to fin# a goo# "ombination of mo#els* 3e shoul# figure out 3hat target %roblems 3e nee# to anal$&e. :fter that* 5e narro3 the mo#els an# metho#s 3e use an# finall$ fin# the best transformation of mo#els to ma6e a multi%le=mo#el best suite# for a s%e"ifi" resear"h %roblem.

Re!erence

1. 4un#aram* Ra2esh3ari* :le;an#er C. M"@ain* an# )ermaine M. 9u"6 @ouis. A: sur'i'al anal$sis a%%roa"h to mo#eling human fe"un#it$.A 9iostatisti"s13.1 (2012-: ,= 1B. 2. M"@ain* :le;an#er C.* Ra2esh3ari 4un#aram* an# )ermaine M. 9u"6 @ouis.

AMo#eling fe"un#it$ in the %resen"e of a sterile fra"tion using a semi=%arametri" transformation mo#el for grou%e# sur'i'al #ata.A 4tatisti"al Metho#s in Me#i"al Resear"h (2012-. 3. >omini6* Rosalie* an# Pai@ien Chen. A>a$s%e"ifi" %regnan"$ %robabilit$ estimation in barrier "ontra"e%ti'e effe"ti'eness trials.A Pae#iatri" an# %erinatal e%i#emiolog$ 20.s1 (200?-: 3C=,2. ,. 9ortot* Paola* )ui#o Masarotto* an# 9runo 4"ar%a. A4e8uential %re#i"tions of menstrual "$"le lengths.A 9iostatisti"s 11., (2010-: B,1=B55. 5. )uo* Ying* et al. AMo#eling menstrual "$"le length using a mi;ture #istribution.A 9iostatisti"s B.1 (200?-: 100=11,. ?. Mi6ola2"&$6* Rafael <.* et al. AChara"teristi"s of %ros%e"ti'el$ measure# 'aginal blee#ing among 3omen tr$ing to "on"ei'e.A Pae#iatri" an# %erinatal e%i#emiolog$ 2,.1 (2010-: 2,=30. B. Huang* Diaobi* Mi"hael R. Elliott* an# 4ioban >. Harlo3. AMo#eling Menstrual C$"le @ength an# Variabilit$ at the :%%roa"h of Meno%ause 7sing 9a$esian Change%oint Mo#els.A (2010-.