Wang 1 Shanchao Wang Kristen Forster CO 150-400 November 18, 2013 Changing the One-Chi ! "o ic# is $ro%n!

the Corner When & 'as in e ementar# schoo , o%r Chinese teacher 'ho ha! ta%ght in the (nite! King!om )or )ive #ears, to ! %s abo%t his i)e in *ng an!+ ,here 'as one e-iso!e ten #ears ago that & sti remember to!a#+ &n his c ass, he as.e! some st%!ents i) the# .ne' the

-o-% ation in China+ /ost st%!ents g%esse! no more than 300 mi ion+ When o%r teacher to ! them it 'as 1+3 bi ion, the# 'ere astonishe! an! sai!0 12o% m%st be .i!!ing3+ China is a !eve o-ing co%ntr# 'ith a arge -o-% ation o) 1+3 bi ion+ ,his -o-% ation is in) %ence! b# an im-ortant -o ic#0 the one-chi ! -o ic#+ 4iterari #, a co%- e is enco%rage! to have on # one bab#5 1China6s one-chi ! -o ic# is a government-!ictate! imitation on the n%mber o) chi !ren that certain gro%-s o) -eo- e in China can have 'itho%t -a#ing a )ine3 7Wise8ee.9+ :%t the -o ic# is o)ten mis%n!erstoo! b# its name+ &n )act, the one-chi ! -o ic# on # a-- ies to marrie!, %rban, ethnica # ;an co%- es 7;an is the main ethnic gro%- in China, abo%t <2= o) the -o-% ation9, abo%t 35= o) the -o-% ation, an! there are some e>ce-tions 7Wise8ee.9+ For instance, it a o's co%- es to have t'ins an! the vi age -eo- e 'ho can have more than one chi ! i) the )irst is a gir + ,he one-chi ! -o ic# has been im- emente! )or more than 30 #ears+ Over the #ears, it 'as regar!e! as a nationa basic -o ic# b# China?s government+ $ tho%gh it brings some bene)its to China, controversies never sto- s%rro%n!ing this egis ation+ Co%- es thin. it is their )ree!om to have more than one chi ! an! consi!er the one-chi ! -o ic# as a !e-rivation

Wang 2 o) their rights+ ,he -o ic# a so sometimes is regar!e! as a -artia it# to the rich, since the# are o)ten more ab e to -a# the )ines 7Wise8ree.9+ &n recent #ears, an increasing concern abo%t ins%))icient #o%ng 'or.)orce, res% te! )rom the one-chi ! -o ic#, 'i s o' !o'n economic !eve o-ment has s-rea! nation'i!e+ &t is time to !isc%ss i) China?s government sho% ! stic. 'ith the one-chi ! -o ic#+ $ tho%gh the one-chi ! -o ic# ha! -ositive in) %ences to societ# in histor#, it has str%gg e! to meet the nee!s o) societ# an! even im-e!es the economic !eve o-ment an! there)ore it sho% ! be change! gra!%a #+ @egar! ess o) the criticism to the one-chi ! -o ic# to!a#, this -o ic# !i! bene)it to Chinese societ# in histor#, an! it 'as -rove! both o))icia # as 'e as b# the in!e-en!ent scho ars+ For instance, the s%ccess)% im- ementation o) the one-chi ! -o ic# ha! near # re!%ce! China?s -o-% ation b# 400 mi ion -eo- e in the -ast 30 #ears+ /oreover, the e>cessive gro'th o) -o-% ation has been c%rbe!, 'hich re ieve! the -ress%re on reso%rces an! environment 7Nationa :%rea% o) Statistics o) China9+ Ar+ "rema Na.ra, a -ro)essor at /arist Co ege, -ointe! o%t that the one-chi ! -o ic# ha! he -e! China trans)er its econom# )rom - anne! econom# to mar.et econom# 7Na.ra 1359+ ;er artic e a so in!icate! that the -o ic# contrib%tes to China?s %n-rece!ente! gro'th in econom#0 1China to!a# is the 'or !6s secon!- argest econom#, 'ith a consistent gro'th rate o) 10= -er #ear3 71359+ Na.ra?s i!ea is simi ar to Aa.e 4i%?s, an in!e-en!ent scho ar in China+ 4i% a so tho%ght that the one-chi ! -o ic# increase! China?s econom# an! c aime! that the economic bene)its 'ere base! on !emogra-hic !ivi!en!, 'hich 'as -rovi!e! b# the -o ic#+ F%rthermore, the one-chi ! -o ic# ha! increase! e!%cation eB%a ities, e!%cation -er ca-ita an! the eve o) e!%cationa -o-% ariCation 7Dhih%9+ $ these )actors con!%ce! to the !eve o-ment o) China?s econom#

Wang 3 an! the contrib%tions that the one-chi ! -o ic# ma!e are %n!eniab e+ ;o'ever, 'hat -eo- e care abo%t is i) it is necessar# to stic. 'ith this -o ic#+ Co%- es in %rban areas !esire more than one chi !+ Statisticians are concerne! i) the -o-% ation is at its best state to s%--ort !eve o-ment o) China societ#+ What is more, -o ic# ma.ers 'orr# abo%t that i) the# !o not ma.e some changes, the si!e e))ects ma# in) %ence the stabi it# o) the 'ho e societ#+ $ these concerns )oc%s on t'o as-ects, socia -rob ems an! economic

-rob ems res-ective #+ $s the one-chi ! -o ic# is carr#ing on, it ca%ses man# socia -rob ems s%ch as aging -rob ems, se>%a imba ances as 'e as mora iss%es+ &n recent research, it is estimate! that the one-chi ! -o ic# has e! to 10E bo#s -er 100 gir s !%ring 1<<1 to 2005, an! 1+++acco%nts )or abo%t 5E= an! 54= o) the tota increases in se> ratios )or the 1<<1-2000 an! 2001-2005 birth cohorts, res-ective #374i, 2i, an! Dhang 15359+ Wh# !oes im- ementing the one-chi ! -o ic# res% t in se>%a imba ancesF &t is beca%se Chinese )ami ies have ong )avore! sons over !a%ghters, es-ecia # in r%ra area 'here ma e abor )orces are m%ch-nee!e!+ ,h%s, the one-chi ! -o ic# generates another -rob em0 se>-se ective miscarriage+ &n some cases, once co%- es )in! o%t that the %nborn bab# is a gir , the# 'i resort to abortion+ :esi!es, )in!ing o%t the se> o) the %nborn bab# is a so i ega + $ so, in rare sit%ations, the -o ic# en)orcement o))icia s 'i %se -h#sica even vio ent abortion i) the# )in! a 'oman 'ants to give birth to a secon! chi ! 'itho%t -a#ing )ines 7Wang 1EG9+ &n a!!ition, the one-chi ! -o ic# ca%ses aging -rob ems in China an! the -rob em is even 'orse than other co%ntries+ &t is a--rise! that b# 2050, there 'i be 2 bi ion -eo- e over G0 #ears o ! in China 7,imes On ine9+ ,he b%r!en )or #o%ng -eo- e to s%--ort their )ami ies 'i

Wang 4 be heav#, beca%se )e'er #o%ng -eo- e 'i -a# ta>es an! oo. a)ter e !er # !%e to the onechi ! -o ic#+ &n regar!s to the econom#, the one-chi ! -o ic# a so ea!s to some harm)% conseB%ences on the 'or.)orce str%ct%re+ For e>am- e, economists )orecast that in the coming 20 #ears the 'or.ing-age gro%- 715-2<9 'i !ec ine in China b# a--ro>imate # 100 mi ion -eo- e+ &t is )%rther -re!icte! that 1China6s 'or.ing -o-% ation 'i contin%e to !ecrease b# aro%n! 10 mi ion ann%a # a)ter 20253 71China @ethin.s &ts Controversia One-chi ! "o ic#39+ $ this !ata in!icate that there 'i be a shortage in #o%ng abor )orces in the )%t%re an! the !a# o) chea-an!-ab%n!ant #o%ng abor )orces has gone, 'hich means the cost o) !eve o-ment 'i increase+ ,h%s, the s-ee! o) economic !eve o-ment 'i !ece erate+ /oreover, the one-chi ! -o ic# has create! a )ami # str%ct%re in 'hich a co%- e, once marrie!, 'i oo. a)ter )o%r -arents - %s their chi ! 7Dhan 549+ ,his )ami # str%ct%re a one

cannot ea! to the !ece eration o) econom#+ ;o'ever, accom-an#ing the one-chi ! -o ic# 'as a series o) economic re)orm, 'hich change! o !-age -ensions )rom !e)ine! bene)its to !e)ine! contrib%tion - an an! re!%ce! the re iabi it# )or me!ica bene)its+ Fina #, the combination o) the )ami # str%ct%re an! the economic re)orm s o's !o'n the !eve o-ment o) econom# beca%se it increases the )ami # cost an! -ress%re on ta.ing care o) the e !er #+ A%e to the one-chi ! -o ic#, cities are ac.ing in abor )orces+ ,here)ore, 'or.ers )rom r%ra areas move to cities to -%rs%e a higher sa ar# 'hich en arges the ga- bet'een %rban an! r%ra econom#+ $ccor!ing to the C&$ Wor ! Factboo. 'ebsite, abo%t 21+5 mi ion r%ra -eo- e ive be o' H<0 -er #ear 'hi e 35+5 mi ion citiCens ive above H125 -er #ear 7ICentra
&nte igence $genc#I9+ ,he en arging ga- bet'een cities an! r%ra areas 'i become a -otentia

Wang 5 instabi it# )or the 'ho e societ# since it shar-ens the con) icts bet'een rich an! -oor 'hich ma# ta.e China into chaos+ :ase! on the negative e))ects in both econom# an! societ#, some -eo- e ma# arg%e that China has to abo ish the one-chi ! -o ic# imme!iate # an! there sho% ! be no more birth contro -o ic#+ 8rante!, China?s government sho% ! ma.e some changes+ ;o'ever, the -rocess sho% ! be gra!%a an! s%ccessive+ 4iao Dhen'%, the Aean o) the &nstit%te o) Societ# an! "o-% ation in @enmin (niversit#, -oints o%t that China government sho% ! re)orm the one-chi ! -o ic# gra!%a #+ 4iao states that given the %nstab e )erti it# rate, once the -o ic# is cance e!, the c%rrent o' birth rate is bo%n! to increase shar- # 74i9+ $ co%ntr#?s )erti it# rate, the eve o) economic !eve o-ment as 'e as the %rbaniCation eve have a ver# c ose

re ationshi-+ 8enera #, a co%ntr# 'hich has a !eve o-e! econom# an! high eve o) %rbaniCation 'i corres-on! to a o' )erti it# eve + China, as a !eve o-ing co%ntr#, has a c%rrent nationa income -er -erson o) HG8<0 an! the %rbaniCation eve is on # 51=, b%t the )erti it# rate has !ro--e! 1+G= or so, even o'er than !eve o-e! co%ntries s%ch as France an! the (nite! King!om 74i9+ ,he main reason )or this -henomenon is that the one-chi ! -o ic# has s%--resse! the birth rate to an %n%s%a o' eve + ,here)ore i) the -o ic# is abo ishe! at once, the )erti it# rate 'i increase shar- # to catch %- 'ith the eve o) econom# an!

%rbaniCation, an! this 'i become a heav# b%r!en to a co%ntr# 'ith 1+3 bi ion -eo- e since the c%rrent econom# con!ition cannot bear more -o-% ation increase+ What?s more, abo ishing a -o ic# 'hich has been im- emente! )or more than 30 #ears sho% ! not be abr%-t+ Consi!eration m%st be given to -eo- e 'ho s%--ort the one-chi ! -o ic# an! -eo- e 'ho obJect it+ Other'ise, there 'i be socia instabi it#+ @ome 'as not b%i t in a

Wang G !a#+ Simi ar #, an# changes in a arge co%ntr# sho% ! be !e iberate an! incrementa + &n conc %sion, the one-chi ! -o ic# ha! -ositive in) %ences to societ# in Chinese histor#+ &t he -e! the trans)ormation o) China?s econom#, contro e! e>cessive -o-% ation gro'th an! -rovi!e! !emogra-hic !ivi!en!+ ;o'ever, it ea!s to socia an! economic -rob ems to!a# s%ch as se>%a imba ance, aging -rob em as 'e as ac.ing in s.i e! #o%ng 'or.)orce+

;ence, it is time to change the one-chi ! -o ic#+ :%t change m%st be gra!%a , or it 'i inc%r socia instabi it#+ $s & 'as 'riting this essa#, China ha! -asse! a ne' egis ation a 'ee. ago+ ,he ne' -o ic# is aime! to re a> the one-chi ! imit on co%- es+ 1&t a o's co%- es to have t'o chi !ren i) either the h%sban! or 'i)e is an on # chi !3 7:%c. e#9+ &t is an ins-iring start, isn?t itF

Wor.s Cite!
:%c. e#, Chris+ IChina to *ase 4ongtime "o ic# o) One-Chi ! 4imit+I ,he Ne' 2or. ,imes+ ,he Ne' 2or. ,imes, 15 Nov+ 2013+ Web+ 20 Nov+ 2013+ IChina @ethin.s &ts Controversia One-chi ! "o ic#+I ,he &n!e-en!ent+ &n!e-en!ent Aigita Ne's an! /e!ia, 12 Se-t+ 2010+ Web+ 21 Nov+ 2013+ ICentra &nte igence $genc#+I ,he Wor ! Factboo.+ N+-+, E $%g+ 2011+ Web+ 21 Nov+ 2013+

4i, Kiaohong+ 1Wh# Sho% ! We Stic. With :irth Contro "o ic#F3 "a-er+"eo- e+com+cn+ "eo- e?s Aai #, 14 Lan%ar# 2013+ Web+ 20 October 2013+ 4i, ;ongbin, L%nJian 2i, an! L%nsen Dhang+ I*stimating ,he *))ect O) ,he One-Chi ! "o ic# On ,he Se> @atio &mba ance &n China0 &!enti)ication :ase! On ,he Ai))erence-&nAi))erences+I Aemogra-h# 48+4 7201190 1535-155E+ Academic Search Premier. Web+ 21 Nov+ 2013+

Wang E Na.ra, "rema+ IChina6s MOne-Chi !? "o ic#0 ,he ,ime For Change &s No'NI Wor ! F%t%re @evie' 7Wor ! F%t%re Societ#9 4+2 7201290 134-140+ Academic Search Premier+ Web+ 20 Oct+ 2013+ National Bureau of Statistics of China. ,he "o-% ation Str%ct%re in China+ Web+ 30 October 2013+ Times Online+ China?s F%t%re 'i be ;obb e! b# O !+ Web+ 20 November 2013+ 1What &s China?s One Chi ! "o ic#+3 Wisegee.+ Wisegee.+ n+!+ Web+ 23 Oct+ 2013+ Wang Feng+ 2011+ 1,he )%t%re o) a !emogra-hic overachiever0 4ong-term im- ications o) the !emogra-hic transition in China,3 Population and Development Review 3E7S%--+90 1E31<0+
Dhan, ;e#ing Lenn#+ I"o-% ation $ging $n! 4ong-,erm Care &n China+I 8enerations 3E+1 7201390 53-58+ $ca!emic Search "remier+ Web+ 21 Nov+ 2013+

Zhihu. :ene)its o) the One-chi ! "o ic#+ Web+ 30 October 2013