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ανάλυση αβεβαιότητας
ανάλυση αβεβαιότητας
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2011-2012
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. ,
:
-
. 3.1
- : . 3.3
- : . 20
20.3
4.1 (reak even
point)
4.1.1
,
= +
PxQ = FC +VCxQ
(4.1)
,
P=
Q=
FC=
VC=
A 4.1
:
FC
=
P VC
(4.2)
4.1.2 /
:
- ,
-
,
-
:
,
.
4.2 (Sensitivity Analysis)
4.2.1
.
/
.
:
-
.
-
.
-
.
-
-
-
.
.
4.2.2 /
,
( )
. ,
.
(3) .
)
.
)
.
)
.
.
4.3
.
.
( ),
(
).
( )
.
4.5
,
, 1 2.
.
. ,
,
().
()
Pi
20%
-10,0%
10,0%
50%
25,0%
20,0%
30%
55,0%
28,4%
:
1.
()
2.
,
;
1) 1
E X = X 1 = P1 X 1
1
i =1
~
X 1 = ( 10,0) 0,20 + (25,0) 0,50 + (55,0) 0,30 = 2 +12,5 +16,5 =
27
() x
~
( X 1 X 1 )
~
P1 ( X 1 X 1 ) 2
2
~
( X 1 X 1 )
-10,0-27,0=-37
1369
1369x0,20=273,8
25,0-27,0=-2
4
4x0,50=2,0
55,0-27,0=28
784
784x0,30=235,2
= 511,0
,
2
~
= x21 = ( X 1 X 1 ) P1 = 511,0
1=22,61
X2
x = X 2 = P2 xX 2
2
i =1
20,5
() X
~
( X 2 X 2 )
~
( X 2 X 2 )
2
~
P2 ( X 2 X 2 )
10,0-20,5= -10,5
110,25
110,25x0,20=22,050
20,0-20,5= -0,5
0,25
0,25x0,50=0,125
28,4-20,5= +7,9
62,41
62,41x0,30=18,723
= 40,898
,
2
~
= x2 = ( X 2 X 2 ) P2 = 40,898
2=6,39
, X2
, X1 .
2
,
1 & 2.
1
22,61
=
= 0,84
X 1 27,00
6,39
=
= 0,31
20,50
x1 =
X 2 =
2
X2
2) ,
2
1. 2
1.
,
2.