Ths.

Nguyn Th Hi Yn
Ths. Phm Ngc Ton

7/30/2013

Ni dung
Tng quan tnh hnh nghin cu
Thc trng nn kinh t Vit Nam
Kt qu nghin cu
Hm chnh sch

7/30/2013

1 Tng quan tnh hnh nghin cu

M hnh l thuyt
Nghin cu thc nghim

7/30/2013

1 Tng quan tnh hnh nghin cu: Ti liu tham kho

Alan Winters, 2000, Trade and Poverty: Is There a Connection? Essay

prepared at the request of World Trade Organisation

Cao Xuan Dung, 2004, The Impacts of Trade Openness on
Growth, Poverty, and Inequality in Vietnam: Evidence from CrossProvince Analysis, Paper prepared for the 53rd AFSE Congress
Paris, 16-17 September 2004
David Dollar, 2002, Reform, Growth, and Poverty in Vietnam, Paper
presented at the workshop on Economic Growth and Household
Welfare: Policy Lessons for Vietnam, Hanoi, May 16-18, 2001.
Frankel, Jeffrey A. and David Romer, 1999, Does Trade Cause Growth?
The American Economic Review, (June) 379- 399.
ILSSA, 2007, The impact of trade openness on employment and labor
income
Pham Ngoc Toan, 2012, Relationship between growth, poverty and
inequality in Vietnam 2006-2010, Journal of Economics and
Development.
Yoko Niimi, Puja Vasudeva-Duta and Alan Winters, 2003, Trade
Liberalisation and Poverty Dynamics in Vietnam.
7/30/2013

1.1 M hnh l thuyt: Tc ng ca chnh sch

thng mi ti h gia nh (Alan, 2000)
Chnh sch thng mi

Doanh
nghip

Phn
phi

Chnh
ph

H gia nh
7/30/2013

1.1 M hnh l thuyt: Tc ng ca chnh sch

thng mi ti i ngho (Alan, 2000)
Gi v
lng th
gii

T gi

Thu
quan, hn
ngch

Thu
thu
XNK

Phm
vi TM

Quc t

Thng qua cnh tranh

Gi ti ca khu

Nam
N
7/30/2013

Phc li
ca h
gia nh

Quc gia

Gi bn l

Thng qua
thu, phn phi, s
kim sot

Chi
tiu
Ngi gi
Ngi tr

a phng

LN, Tin
lng, Vi
c lm

Gi bn bun

Thu
thu

T cung t cp

Doanh
nghip

Thng qua thu, phn

phi, s kim sot

1.2 Nghin cu thc nghim

Frankel v Romer (1999) c lng nh hng ca thng mi i vi thu
nhp bng vic s dng hi quy bin cng c (IV) vi s liu cho cp quc
gia xem xt nh hng ca thng mi v quy m quc gia i vi thu
nhp bnh qun u ngi, sau so snh vi kt qu c lng bng
phng php OLS vi cng phng trnh hi quy.
Cc kt qu thu c:
Khng c bng chng cho thy c mi tng quan thun chiu gia thu nhp v

7/30/2013

thng mi quc t. Nguyn nhn: cc nc c th c thu nhp cao v nhiu l

do khc ngoi l do v thng mi
Tuy nhin, nh hng ca thng mi ti thu nhp theo c lng IV ln hn
ng k so vi c lng OLS.
c lng im cho thy nh hng ca thng mi ti thu nhp tng i ln:
1 im phn trm gia tng t l thng mi/GDP lm thu nhp tng t 1.5-2%.
Quy m thng mi gia tng lm tng thu nhp.
Mc nh hng ca thng mi v quy m quc gia i vi thu nhp ph
thuc vo c im quc gia, vic chn mu v chn bin cng c.
Cc kt qu c lng v nh hng ca thng mi v quy m quc gia ti thu
nhp khng thc s chnh xc s khng chc chn v mc nh hng ca
thng mi v quy m quc gia i vi thu nhp.
7

1.2 Nghin cu thc nghim

Yoko (2003) p dng khung l thuyt ca Alan v kt

lun:
1. Khung l thuyt ny c tnh thc t trong vic gii thch
mi quan h gia ci cch thng mi v gim ngho.
2. Mc d cha chc chn hon ton, nhng ci cch
thng mi ca Vit Nam t 1990s gp phn gim
ngho: Xut nhp khu hng ha ca Vit Nam
tng mnh m, thu nhp thc t ca ngi ngho c
xu hng tng ln thng qua s tham gia ca h vo
cc lnh vc cng nghip nh, go v c ph.
3. Kt qu nghin cu c ngha c v mt thng k v
kinh t. Mc d cha chc chn hon ton, nhng cc
bin s thng mi c th hin trong s liu
thng k v ngho i ca cc h gia nh Vit Nam.
7/30/2013

1.2 Nghin cu thc nghim

ILLSA (2007) nghin cu s thay i mc tin lng ca

lao ng Vit Nam v kt lun:

1. Hot ng xut khu to thm nhiu vic lm, ch
cha lm tng tin lng.
2. Ngi lao ng trong cc ngnh xut khu c mc
lng thp hn cc ngnh khng xut khu do cc
ngnh xut khu thng l ngnh thm dng lao
ng, cng ngh thp v c gi tr gia tng thp.
3. Tuy nhin, mc gia tng tin lng trong cc ngnh
xut khu cao hn cc ngnh khng xut khu lm
gim khong cch v mc lng gia hai nhm ngnh
4. Trong cc ngnh xut khu: khong cch v tin lng
gia lao ng c k nng v khng c k nng ngy
cng tng.
7/30/2013

1.2 Nghin cu thc nghim

David (2002) thc hin c lng im t hi quy
tng trng s liu mng ca Vit Nam v kt lun:
Trong tc tng trng bnh qun ca Vit Nam l
7,2%/nm, th ng gp ca cc yu t l:
T do ha thng mi:
1.3 im phn trm;
Lm pht chm:
1.5 im phn trm;
Ci thin dch v ti chnh: 1.8 im phn trm;
Ci cch v quyn s hu: 2.6 im phn trm

7/30/2013

10

1.2 Nghin cu thc nghim

Phm Ngc Ton (2012) s dng m hnh cn bng tng th
(CGE- Computable General Equilibrium) phn tch nh
hng ca tng trng kinh t, m ca thng mi ti ngho
i v bt bnh ng ti Vit Nam v kt lun:
Tng trng c tc ng tch cc ti gim ngho
Thc trng ti phn phi thu nhp c xu hng lm tng t l
ngho
Kt qu gim ngho c c mt phn nh cc chnh sch v
m c tc ng ti thu nhp ca cc h gia nh.
khu vc thnh th, thu nhp ca cc h gia nh tng ln
trc ht l do ng gp ca lao ng, tip n l vn v t
ai.
Ngc li, khu vc nng thn, yu t ng gp nhiu l t
ai (hot ng nng nghip); thu nhp t tin lng khng
ng k, phn nh trnh pht trin thp ca th trng lao
ng khu vc nng thn.
7/30/2013

11

1.2 Nghin cu thc nghim

Cao Xuan Dung (2004) xem xt nh hng ca m
ca thng mi ti tng trng, ngho i v bt
bnh ng cp tnh ca Vit Nam vi s liu t
19972000 v kt lun:
M ca thng mi mt mt gp phn tch cc i
vi tng trng v gim ngho, nhng mt khc lm
tng khong cch thu nhp gia nhm giu nht v
ngho nht (theo ng phn v).
Mi quan h gia m ca thng mi v vai tr kinh
t-x hi ca Nh nc rt quan trng nhm pht
huy nhng tc ng tch cc ca m ca thng
mi i vi nn kinh t trong qu trnh chuyn i.
7/30/2013

12

2 Thc trng nn kinh t Vit Nam

Mc m ca thng mi
Tin lng/ Thu nhp
Ngho

7/30/2013

13

2.1 Mc m ca thng mi ca Vit Nam:

Tng kim ngch XNK so vi Thu nhp quc gia

7/30/2013

14

2.1 Mc m ca thng mi ca Vit Nam:

Kim ngch XK so vi Thu nhp quc gia

7/30/2013

15

2000.0
0.0
-2000.0
-4000.0
-6000.0
-8000.0
-10000.0
-12000.0
-14000.0
-16000.0
-18000.0
-20000.0

7/30/2013

1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011*

2.1 Mc m ca thng mi ca Vit Nam:

Thm ht thng mi hng ha 1990-2011 (tr USD)

16

2.2 Thc trng tin lng theo ngnh

Mc lng thng (VND 000)
2002

2004

2006 2008

2010

Tc tng lng
hng nm (%)
2002- 2006- 20022006 2010 2010

Ton quc

791

806 1.042 1.552

2.691

7,1

26,8

16,5

Nng, lm
nghip

487

606

656 1.060

1.931

7,7

31,0

18,8

646
763
742
874
708
894

774
947 1.287
1.013 1.390 2.156
747
876 1.190
1.071 1.404 1.841
745
898 1.288
979 1.482 2.028

2.246
3.326
2.260
2.320
2.094
3.513

10,0
16,2
4,2
12,6
6,1
13,5

24,1
24,4
26,7
13,4
23,6
24,1

16,9
20,2
14,9
13,0
14,5
18,7

1.265

1.255 1.375 2.155

3.531

2,1

26,6

13,7

751

839 1.130 1.603

2.944

10,8

27,0

18,6

673

790

2.295

6,2

28,0

16,6

Thy sn
Khai khong
Ch to
in v kh t
Xy dng
Dch v
Gio dc v y
t
Qun l nh
nc
Hot ng x
hi
7/30/2013

855 1.079

17

2.2 Mc lng thng theo ngnh 2002-2010 (000 VN)

4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0

7/30/2013

2002
2004
2006
2008
2010

18

2.2 Tc gia tng tin lng hng nm (%)

Hot ng x hi
Qun l nh nc
Gio dc v y t
Dch v
Xy dng
in v kh t
Ch to
Khai khong
Thy sn
Nng, lm nghip
Ton qu c

2002-2010
2006-2010
2002-2006

0
7/30/2013

10

20

30

40
19

3.1 T l ngho ca Vit Nam (%)

2004 2006

2008 2010

18.1

15.5

13.4

10.7

Thnh th

8.6

7.7

6.7

5.1

Nng thn

21.2

18.0

16.1

13.2

Ton quc

7/30/2013

20

3.2 T l ngho theo vng (%)

35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Red River
Delta

Northern
North
Central South East Mekong
midlands Central and Highlands
River Delta
and
Central
mountain
coastal
areas
areas
2004

7/30/2013

2006

2008

2010
21

3.3 Ngho a chiu (MPI, UNDP)

Nm 2008, ton quc: 23.3%
ng bng sng M-cng: 50%
Trung du v min ni pha Bc: 40%
Tnh Lai Chu, in Bin, H Giang: trn 73%.
12 tnh khc: trn 50%

7/30/2013

22

3 Kt qu nghin cu
C s d liu
Tc ng ca m ca thng mi ti tin lng
ca ngi lao ng
Tc ng ca m ca thng mi ti t l
ngho
Tc ng ca m ca thng mi ti ngho a
chiu

7/30/2013

23

C s d liu
VHLSS: 2 nm/ln; nhn khu hc ca h gia nh (tui

tc, gii tnh, tnh trng hn nhn, dn tc); thu nhp ca

h gia nh (mc thu nhp v ngun thu nhp); trnh
gio dc, k nng, tnh trng vic lm ca thnh vin h
gia nh
Tng iu tra doanh nghip Vit Nam (EC): hng nm
ca GSO, m thng mi tnh bng tng kim ngch
xut nhp khu ca cc doanh nghip so vi tng gi tr
gia tng ca doanh nghip, XK/VA.
Kt ni m thng mi t c s d liu EC sang
VHLSS bng cch chuyn t cp doanh nghip sang
cp ngnh (theo m ngnh t 1-99 ca GSO, VISIC
2006) vi gi nh: lao ng trong cng mt ngnh c
cng mc nh hng t m ca thng mi.
GDP, vn u t, t l ngho cp tnh ca GSO v MPI
(cp tnh) ca UNDP.
7/30/2013

24

3.1 Tc ng ca m ca thng mi ti tin

lng ca ngi lao ng
Phng trnh ca m hnh: M rng m hnh ca

Mincer: LnMwagei= ao+ a1schoolingi +a2schoolingi2

+a3*experiencei + a4experiencei2 +a5genderi+
a6urbani + a7indusi + a8indusi*opennessi +
a9opennessi + ui
S liu s dng:
VHLSS (Cc thng tin v c im ngi lao

7/30/2013

ng, gio dc, vic lm, thu nhp,)

EC (S liu tng iu tra doanh nghip VN: c im
doanh nghip, ngnh, VA, Gi tr XK, NK,)
Tnh m ca t cc DN trong cc ngnh t EC
Gi nh ngi lao ng trong cng mt ngnh s c
cng mc nh hng t m ca
Kt ni bin m ca t EC sang VHLSS
25

Kt qu
Ln(Mwage)

Coef.

Std. Err. t

P>t

Variables
Number of years of schooling
Square of number of years of
schooling
Number of experience years
Interactive variable
Interactive variable
Gender
Area
Manufacturing
Construction
Services
Manufacturing*exports
Construction*exports
Service*exports
Exports/ VA
7/30/2013

Yrsch

-0.016

0.006

-2.480

0.013

yrsch2
Exp
yrs_exp
yrs_gender
Gender
Urban
D_ind2
D_ind3
D_ind4
D_ind2export
D_ind3export
D_ind4export
Export
_cons

0.003
-0.006
0.001
-0.014
0.364
0.232
0.014
0.010
-0.154
0.158
0.516
0.170
-0.1582
7.163

0.000
0.001
0.000
0.003
0.033
0.015
0.109
0.110
0.108
0.057
0.185
0.057
0.057
0.117

13.350
-4.560
5.570
-5.240
11.100
15.020
0.130
0.090
-1.420
2.760
2.790
2.970
-2.770
61.140

0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.898
0.930
0.156
0.006
0.005
0.003
0.006
0.000
26

Kt qu
Kt qu c lng cho thy hu ht cc h s c lng

c u c ngha thng k mc =5%, ngoi tr bin

gi cho 3 ngnh CN, XD v dch v.
Tc ng ca s nm i hc: Cho thy vic nng cao trnh
s lm tng thu nhp
Tin lng ca nam cao hn n
Tc ng ca hot ng xut khu c tnh thng qua o
hm ca hm Ln(mwage) theo xut khu (export)
E2 = -0.1582+0.170*DV+0.516*Xydng+0.158*Cngnghip.
Tc ng ca hot ng xut khu n thu nhp ngi lao
ng l m, ngha l lm gim thu nhp ca ngi lao ng.
iu ny c th gii thch do nh hng nn kinh t th gii
tc ng n cc ngnh tham gia xut khu ca Vit
Nam, cc doanh nghip cng hi nhp su rng th cng nh
hng

7/30/2013

27

Kt qu
Tc ng ca hot ng xut khu n ngnh cng

nghip = 0,158 - 0,1582 = -0,0002

Nguyn nhn: Xut khu ca ngnh cng
nghip, ch yu thuc nhm cng nghip ch bin
v ph thuc nhiu vo th trng th gii, b nh
hng tiu cc ca suy thoi kinh t ton cu trong
nm 2010 nn doanh thu gim, li nhun gim
tin lng/thu nhp ca lao ng gim

7/30/2013

28

Kt qu
Tc ng ca hot ng xut khu ln ngnh dch

v = 0.170 - 0.158 = 0.012

Nguyn nhn: Xut khu dch v ca Vit Nam ch
yu thuc v lnh vc du lch (xut khu ti ch). Suy
thoi kinh t khin nhiu khch hng la chn cc
quc gia c chi ph r, an ton l im n
hng cc dch v du lch Vit Nam l mt s la
chn M ca thng mi lm tng thu nhp trong
ngnh dch v.

7/30/2013

29

3.2 Tc ng ca m ca thng mi
n t l ngho Vit nam
Do gii hn v thi gian v d liu nn nghin cu

ny s dng m hnh phn tch nh lng m

phng (cc tc gi khc c th s dng c m hnh
CGE xem xt).
Dng hm hi quy: Yi = 0 + 1Opennessi + 2Xi +ui
Y: T l ngho hoc ch s ngho a chiu;
X: l bin kim sot m nh hng n Y;

Openness ( m ca): c xc nh l t s gia

tng kim ngch xut nhp khu so vi GDP ca tnh

S liu s dng: VHLSS, EC, S liu thng k ca

GSO
7/30/2013

30

3.2 Tc ng ca m ca thng mi ti t l ngho

Poverty rate
LnGDP
Literacy rate
Openness
HDI
LnCapital

EQ1

EQ2

-5.816*** -3.318***
[1.084]
[1.190]
-0.785***
[0.139]
-18.634*** -13.345**
[6.958]
[6.509]
-1.643***
[0.238]

EQ3

-0.930***
[0.138]
-18.288**
[7.461]

EQ4

-13.073*
[6.800]
-1.872***
[0.225]
-1.265*
[0.742]

-3.074***
[0.710]
143.499** 164.075** 158.045**
Constant
*
*
*
172.334***
[11.047]
[11.794]
[13.217]
[12.528]
Observations
63
63
63
63
R-squared
0.74
0.78
0.71
0.76
Standard errors in brackets
* significant at 10%; ** significant at 5%; *** significant at 1%
7/30/2013

31

3.2 Kt qu
R2 kh cao (0.71-0.78): cc bin c lp gii thch kh tt

cho bin ph thuc

Cc h s c lng c c ngha thng k
C 4 m hnh u cho thy: M ca c tc ng tch cc
n gim ngho ti Vit Nam
EQ1 v EQ2 Tng trng c tc ng tch cc n
gim ngho
EQ1 v EQ3 Gio dc v o to c tc ng tch cc
ti gim ngho: t l bit ch tng 1 im phn trm
t l ngho gim tng ng l 0.785 im phn trm
(EQ1) v 0.93 im phn trm (EQ3)
EQ2 v EQ4 HDI c tc ng tch cc n gim
ngho
EQ3 v EQ4 u t c tc ng tch cc n gim
ngho

7/30/2013

32

3.3 Tc ng ca m ca thng mi
ti ngho a chiu
Hm s hi quy:

MPI = 0 + 1Lntrade + 2Skillratio

Kt qu:
R2 = 0.8059 bin c lp gii thch tt cho bin

ph thuc v cc h s c ngha thng k.

Mc d h s nh hng ca m ca thng mi
(Lntrade) v t l lao ng c k nng (skillratio)
khng ln (tng ng l 1 = -0.011 v 2 = 0.007), nhng vn phn nh tc ng tch cc
ca hai nhn t ny i vi ngho a chiu.
7/30/2013

33

3.3 Tc ng ca m ca thng mi
ti ngho a chiu
Source

SS

df

MS

Number of obs
F( 2,

60)

63
124.55

Model

0.49598 2 .24799134

Prob > F

Residual

0.11946 60 .0019910

R-squared

0.8059

Adj R-squared

0.7994

Total

0.61545 62 .0099265

Root MSE

MPI

Coef.

Std. Err.

lntrade

-0.011

.00271

-3.87

0.000

-0.016

-0.005

skillratio

-0.007

.00060 -11.56

0.000

-0.008

-0.006

_cons

0.709

.03843

0.000

0.632

0.786

7/30/2013

18.45

P>t

0.04462

[95% Conf.

Interval]

34

4 Kt lun v hm chnh sch

M ca thng mi c xu hng lm gim tin

lng ca ngi lao ng trong bi cnh suy thoi

kinh t th gii, nhng c tc ng tch cc ti gim
ngho v thu nhp v ngho a chiu
Tng cng o to ngun nhn lc l cn thit
nng cao k nng cho ngi lao ng, gp phn tch
cc cho cng cuc gim ngho.
Tng cng u t v y mnh tng trng kinh t
ng gp tch cc cho vic gim ngho.
Nng cao trnh pht trin con ngi ng gp
tch cc i vi gim ngho.
7/30/2013

35

Ti liu tham kho

Alan Winters, 2000, Trade and Poverty: Is There a Connection? Essay
prepared at the request of World Trade Organisation
Cao Xuan Dung, 2004, The Impacts of Trade Openness on
Growth, Poverty, and Inequality in Vietnam: Evidence from Cross-Province
Analysis, Paper prepared for the 53rd AFSE Congress Paris, 16-17
September 2004
Dan Ben-David, HkanNordstrm and Alan Winters, 1999, Trade, Income
Disparity and Poverty, Special Studies, World Trade Organisation.
David Dollar, 2002, Reform, Growth, and Poverty in Vietnam, Paper
presented at the workshop on Economic Growth and Household Welfare:
Policy Lessons for Vietnam, Hanoi, May 16-18, 2001.
Frankel, Jeffrey A. and David Romer, 1999, Does Trade Cause Growth? The
American Economic Review, (June) 379- 399.
ILSSA, 2007, The impact of trade openness on employment and labor
income
Pham Ngoc Toan, 2012, Relationship between growth, poverty and
inequality in Vietnam 2006-2010, Journal of Economics and Development.
Yoko Niimi, Puja Vasudeva-Duta and Alan Winters, 2003, Trade
Liberalisation and Poverty Dynamics in Vietnam.
7/30/2013

36