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Figure 4.1 Tubular capacity in bending for different section class dependent on degree of
deformation .
Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability: Application to Jacket Plattforms Page No. 23
DNV Report No. 95-3203 Discussion of Limit States
Sigurdsson,G; E. Cramer;I. Lotsberg, B.Berge Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability Analysis- Application to Jacket
Platforms, DNV Report 95-3203
4.2.2 Global Buckling of Members
4.2.2.1 Background
The procedure for design of tubulars subjected to a bending moment according to the NPD
regulations is based on linear elastic analysis as if all tubulars were belonging to section class III.
(Reference is made to Eurocode 3 (1993) with respect to requirements to section classes which
for tubulars are shown in Table 4.1). This procedure is considered to be sufficient for tubulars
subjected to external pressure.
The procedure for design of tubulars in air is considered conservative for section classes I and II
as yielding of the section is allowed (by definition of section class). A higher capacity accounting
for the plastic section modules is directly achieved through a non-linear analysis. The increase in
the bending capacity by going from elastic to plastic section modules is a factor of 4/=1.27.
The effect of plastic section modulus is more directly incorporated in the API design equations
than that of NPD although it is opened for plastic design also in the NPD regulations.
Other items related to buckling of tubular members are:
- effective buckling lengths
- buckling curves
- effect of external pressure.
In a design analysis it is common to assume a buckling length that is representative for typical
member configurations as X-braces, K-frames, single braces, jacket legs and piles. The effective
buckling length is dependent on the joint flexibilities and for X-braces also on the amount of
tension force in the crossing element. It is also a matter of discussion whether the buckling length
should be measured from centreline to centreline of jacket legs which can be argued for in the
case of a combined collapse of the braces and the legs, or if the buckling length should be
associated with the face to face length between the legs which may be argued for considering
buckling of a single brace. The effective buckling length may be derived from analytical
considerations. However, the effective buckling lengths derived from theoretical considerations
are longer than the buckling lengths obtained from tests of frame structures loaded until collapse.
It should be noted that the basis for the buckling curves in the different codes is different. The
API buckling curve is derived as a lower bound value for low slenderness while it is equal to the
Euler stress for high slenderness values which may be considered as an upper bound value for
that region. Another definition of a buckling curve is used in the AISC (1986). The background
for the buckling curves used in design of steel structures in European design standards is based
on work carried out within the European Convention for Constructional Steelwork which is
presented in Manual on Stability of Steel Structures (1976). The design curves are presented by
their characteristic values which are defined as mean values minus two standard deviations along
the slenderness axis. The test results are assumed normal distributed.
It is also noted that the requirements to allowable fabrication eccentricity are different associated
with the various buckling curves. For the European buckling curves, a straightness deviation at
the middle of the column equal 0.0015 times the column length is allowed, while for API and
AISC the corresponding numbers are 0.0010 and 0.00067, respectively.
Different buckling curves used for design of tubular members are shown in Figure 4.2.
Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability: Application to Jacket Plattforms Page No. 24
DNV Report No. 95-3203 Discussion of Limit States
Sigurdsson,G; E. Cramer;I. Lotsberg, B.Berge Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability Analysis- Application to Jacket
Platforms, DNV Report 95-3203
The design equation for global member buckling in the NPD regulations (NPD 1996) reads
c b b
y
m
B B
f
where
+ +
*
c
N
A
N
A
= =
=
=
design axial compressive stress
axial force
section area
B
N
N
E
= =
b c
y
k
k
m E
E
E
f
f
f
f
f
N
A
*
( )( ) =
=
1 1
f
k
= characteristic buckling strength derived from the buckling curve
Buckling
stress
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5
Reduced slenderness
ECCS,NPD,DNV
API LRFD
API WSD/AISC
Euler
Figure 4.2 Different buckling curves used for design of tubular members
Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability: Application to Jacket Plattforms Page No. 25
DNV Report No. 95-3203 Discussion of Limit States
Sigurdsson,G; E. Cramer;I. Lotsberg, B.Berge Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability Analysis- Application to Jacket
Platforms, DNV Report 95-3203
4.2.2.2 Limit State Function
The limit state function for global buckling of members can be formulated as
G f B B
f
N
A
y c b b
y
c
= + +
=
= =
( )
*
where
yield strength
design axial compressive stress
N
A
= axial force
= section area
B bending amplification factor
N
N
E
= =
1
1
N
f
f
f
f
f
N
A
f
E
b c
y
k
k
E
E
E
k
=
=
=
=
Euler buckling load
buckling strength derived from the buckling curve
*
( )( ) 1 1
Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability: Application to Jacket Plattforms Page No. 26
DNV Report No. 95-3203 Discussion of Limit States
Sigurdsson,G; E. Cramer;I. Lotsberg, B.Berge Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability Analysis- Application to Jacket
Platforms, DNV Report 95-3203
4.2.3 Buckling of Members Subjected to External Pressure
4.2.3.1 Background
The capacity of tubulars subjected to axial force, bending and external pressure may be designed
based on the guidelines on design and analysis provided by the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate
(NPD 1996) with additional guidance by Lotsberg (1993), or by a design procedure presented by
Loh (1990). In the following the design procedure given by NPD and Lotsberg is given. It should
be noted that it is only the effective axial force that contributes to the axial stresses that enhance
buckling, see Figure 4.3. The axial stress resulting from the external pressure do contribute in the
equation for the von Mises stress considering yielding, but does not contribute to the axial force
that gives global buckling stress.
Figure 4.3 Illustration of effective axial force to be used for global buckling. (The total
stress is governing for the local structural behaviour in terms of yielding
and local buckling)
The equation for global buckling is modified to account for the effect of external pressure as
follows:
ac
B B AC
A
=
+
2
4
2
where
A
f
f
y
ea
= + 1
2
2
Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability: Application to Jacket Plattforms Page No. 27
DNV Report No. 95-3203 Discussion of Limit States
Sigurdsson,G; E. Cramer;I. Lotsberg, B.Berge Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability Analysis- Application to Jacket
Platforms, DNV Report 95-3203
B
f
f f
y
ea ep
p
= ( )
2
1
2
C
f
f
f
p
y p
ep
y
= +
2
2 2
2
2
f
ea
= elastic buckling stress with respect to axial force
f k
E t
l
ea
=
2
2
2
12 1 ( )
k
l
r t
r
t
= +
+
1
0123 1
1
150
4 2
2 2
. ( )
( )
f
ep
= elastic buckling stress in hoop direction with respect to external pressure
f
t
r
ep
=
025
2
.
p
= stress in hoop direction due to external pressure
The equation for global buckling is then modified as follows
c b b
ac axp
m
B B + +
*
where
axp
= axial stress in the tubular due to end cap pressure =
p
/2.
For other notations see section 4.2.2. Note that
c
now is derived as the effective axial stress
(without including the end cap stress resulting from external pressure).
An example of the difference between the effective axial stress and the total stress in a tubular
member as function of the water depth is shown in Figure 4.4. It is noted that the difference is
small for water depths below say 100 metres, but that it becomes significant for deep-water
structures.
Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability: Application to Jacket Plattforms Page No. 28
DNV Report No. 95-3203 Discussion of Limit States
Sigurdsson,G; E. Cramer;I. Lotsberg, B.Berge Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability Analysis- Application to Jacket
Platforms, DNV Report 95-3203
4.2.3.2 Limit State Function
The limit state function for global buckling of members subjected to external pressure can be
formulated as,
G B B
ac axp c b b
= + + ( )
*
with notation as given in section 4.2.1.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
0 200 400 600 800 1000
Waterdepth in m
A
l
l
o
w
a
b
l
e
s
t
r
e
s
s
Effective stress
Total stress
Figure 4.4 Axial stress in the tubular as function of water depth and external pressure
at global member buckling
4.3 Joint Failure (ULS)
4.3.1 Background
A number of design equations have been established for the static strength of tubular joints. The
equations in API (1991) and NPD (1996) show a similar shape although the coefficients are
different as also might be expected as the API RP2A is based on allowable stresses, while the
NPD has based the design on the partial coefficient method since 1977. The following work is
based on the NPD regulations, but only small modifications would be required to revert to
another standard such as that of API or HSE.
It should be mentioned that work on joint capacities is being carried out within the development
of a new ISO standard on design of steel offshore structures. This work should be considered as
basis for limit state functions when it is available.
The following symbols are used:
Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability: Application to Jacket Plattforms Page No. 29
DNV Report No. 95-3203 Discussion of Limit States
Sigurdsson,G; E. Cramer;I. Lotsberg, B.Berge Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability Analysis- Application to Jacket
Platforms, DNV Report 95-3203
T = Chord wall thickness
t = Brace wall thickness
R = Outer radius of chord
r = Outer radius of brace
= Angle between chord and considered brace
D = Outer diameter of chord
d = Outer diameter of brace
a = gap (clear distance) between considered brace and nearest load-carrying brace measured
along chord outer surface
= r/R
= R/T
g = a/D
f
y
= Yield strength
Q
f
= See Table 4.3
Q
g
= See Table 4.2
Q
u
= See Table 4.2
Q
ax
= Axial stress in chord
IP
= In-plane bending stress in chord
ax
= Out-of-plane bending stress in chord
Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability: Application to Jacket Plattforms Page No. 30
DNV Report No. 95-3203 Discussion of Limit States
Sigurdsson,G; E. Cramer;I. Lotsberg, B.Berge Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability Analysis- Application to Jacket
Platforms, DNV Report 95-3203
Table 4.2 Values for Q
u
(Characteristic values)
Type of joint and geometry Type of load in brace member
Axial In-plane bending Out-of-plane
bending
T & Y 2.5 +19
X (2.7 +13)Q
5.0
0.5
3.2/(1-0.81)
K 0.90(2 +21)Q
g
Q
>
03
1 0833
0 6
10 0 6
.
( . )
.
. .
for
for
Q
a T
g
g
=
>
18 01 20
18 4 20
. . /
.
for
for
+
2
1
where
m
is a material coefficient =1.15.
Figure 4.5 Simple Tubular Joint
Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability: Application to Jacket Plattforms Page No. 32
DNV Report No. 95-3203 Discussion of Limit States
Sigurdsson,G; E. Cramer;I. Lotsberg, B.Berge Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability Analysis- Application to Jacket
Platforms, DNV Report 95-3203
Figure 4.6 Force displacement relationship for a tubular joint
4.3.2 Limit State Function
The limit state function for the static capacity of tubular joints can be formulated as
G
N
N
M
M
M
M
k
IP
IPk
OP
OPk
= +
+ 1
2
( ) or G
N
N
M
M
M
M
k
IP
IPk
OP
OPk
= +
+ log( )
2
where the equations given above are used to calculate N
k
, M
IPk
and M
OPk
with Q
u
from Table 4.4
and A as given below.
Table 4.4 Values for Q
u
based on 50 per cent fractiles (median values)
Type of joint and geometry Type of load in brace member
Axial In-plane bending Out-plane bend.
T & Y 2.8 +21
X (3.0 +14.6)Q
5.6
0.5
3.6/(1-0.81)
K (2.6 +27)Q
g
The parameter A for calculation of Q
f
in Table 4.4 is obtained as:
A
f
ax IP OP
y
2
2 2 2
2
=
+ +
Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability: Application to Jacket Plattforms Page No. 33
DNV Report No. 95-3203 Discussion of Limit States
Sigurdsson,G; E. Cramer;I. Lotsberg, B.Berge Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability Analysis- Application to Jacket
Platforms, DNV Report 95-3203
The CoV values in Table 4.5 for Q
u
may be used for the reliability analysis based on the
presented limit state functions. Q
u
is normal distributed. For CoV for yield strength, see DNV
(1995a).
Table 4.5 Values for CoV for Q
u
Type of joint and geometry Type of load in brace member
Axial In-plane bending Out-plane bend.
T & Y 0.10
X 0.10 0.10 0.10
K 0.20
4.4 Fatigue Failure at Hot-spot of Welded Connections (FLS)
4.4.1 General
4.4.1.1 Overview
Jacket structures of all types are generally subjected to cyclic loading from wind, current,
earthquakes and waves, which cause time-varying stress effects in the structure. The
environmental quantities are of random nature and may be more or less correlated to each other
through the generating and driving mechanisms. Waves and earthquake loads are generally
considered to be the most important sources for structural excitations. However, earthquake
loads are only taken into account in the analysis of structures close to, or within tectonic areas,
and will not be included here. Wind and current loads represent an insignificant contribution to
the fatigue loading and may be ignored in the fatigue analysis of jacket structures.
A fatigue analysis of offshore structures can in general terms be described as a calculation
procedure, starting with the environment (waves) creating stress ranges at the hot-spot regions
and ending with the fatigue damage estimation. The link between the waves and the fatigue
damage estimate is formed by mathematical models for the wave forces, the structural behaviour
and the material behaviour. The probabilistic fatigue analysis may be divided into four main
steps:
1) Probabilistic modelling of the environmental sea states (short- and long-term modelling)
2) Probabilistic modelling of the wave loading
3) Structural response analysis (global and local)
4) Stochastic modelling of fatigue damage accumulation.
The above steps are covered in DNV (1995a). In the following, it will be focused on the
application to jacket structures.
In addition to the above steps, the analysis includes a stochastic modelling of the fatigue capacity
and the probabilistic evaluation, i.e. the probabilistic derivation of the likelihood of the event that
the accumulated fatigue damage exceeds the defined critical fatigue strength level.
Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability: Application to Jacket Plattforms Page No. 34
DNV Report No. 95-3203 Discussion of Limit States
Sigurdsson,G; E. Cramer;I. Lotsberg, B.Berge Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability Analysis- Application to Jacket
Platforms, DNV Report 95-3203
In order to carry out a realistic fatigue evaluation of a jacket structure, it is necessary to introduce
some simplifying assumptions in the modelling. These assumptions consist of:
For a short term period (a few hours) the sea surface can be considered as a realisation of a
zero-mean stationary Gaussian process. The sea surface elevation is (completely)
characterised by the frequency spectrum, which for a given direction of wave propagation, can
be described by two parameters, the significant wave height H
S
and some characteristic
period like the spectral peak period T
P
or the zero-mean up-crossing period T
Z
.
The long term probability distribution of the sea state parameters ( H T
S P
or H T
S Z
diagram) is known.
Applying frequency domain approach for assessing the structural response, the wave loading
on structural members must be linearised and the structural stress response must be assumed
to be a linear function of the loading, i.e. the structural and material models are linear.
The relationship between the sectional forces and the local hot-spot stresses (SCFs) is known,
where an empirical parameter description is most common.
Fatigue is the process of damage accumulation in a material undergoing fluctuation stresses and
strains caused by time-varying loading. Fatigue failure occurs when the accumulated damage is
exceeding a critical level. The fatigue process experienced by most offshore structures is high-
cycle fatigue, i.e. the fluctuating nominal stress levels are below the yield strength and the
number of cycles to failure is larger than 10
4
. Fatigue damage in welded structures is likely to
occur at the welded joints due to the stress concentration at areas of geometric discontinuity.
Notches and initial defects caused by the welding processes may also occur in this area.
Traditional fatigue design of jackets is based on the SN-fatigue approach where fatigue failure is
assumed to occur when the crack has propagated through the thickness of the member. However,
at a design stage without any observed cracks in the structure, the estimated fatigue damage
based on fracture mechanics is normally less reliable than that derived from SN data due to the
difficulties involved in assessing the initial crack size. Applying the SN-approach, the fatigue
damage is measured in degree of damage, D , from an initial value 0 to , where is defined
as the fatigue damage accumulation resulting in failure, depending on the detail considered and
the selected SN-curve.
When performing a reliability updating on the basis of structural inspections for cracks, the
inspection outcome can not be used directly to update the degree of damage accumulation unless
the fracture mechanics approach is applied. In order to also be able to perform reliability
updating when the SN approach is applied, a procedure for establishing a relationship between
these two fatigue approaches is proposed in the following.
4.4.1.2 System Aspects
Jacket structures are typically redundant with respect to brace failures and a total structural
collapse will not occur before several members have failed. After a member has failed due to e.g.
fatigue, the applied loading will be transferred by the remaining members, i.e. a redistribution of
the load through the structure occurs. In the damaged structure, each remaining member has
already some accumulated fatigue damage, and due to the redistribution of the stresses in the
structure the rate of damage accumulation will change. By accounting for the changes due to
failure in other members, the total damage at a section can by formulated mathematically. Once
Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability: Application to Jacket Plattforms Page No. 35
DNV Report No. 95-3203 Discussion of Limit States
Sigurdsson,G; E. Cramer;I. Lotsberg, B.Berge Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability Analysis- Application to Jacket
Platforms, DNV Report 95-3203
the time to failure for each individual section in a sequence is defined, the sequence event is
defined as the intersection of a set of section failure events for which the time to failure for each
individual section is less than the lifetime of the structure.
Usually, there will be many alternative sequences leading to collapse, and the total structural
failure is the event that one of these collapse sequences occurs.
A system reliability approach is required when the probability of total structure failure
accounting for the progressive nature of collapse is to be estimated. One of the difficulties with
such an approach is that for typical structures there are a very large number of sequences leading
to failure, and that it is not feasible to include all of these in the analysis. Usually, however, only
few of the failure sequences have significant contributions to the total failure probability.
Therefore, in most structural reliability analyses, a search technique can be used to identify
important failure sequences and the system failure event is approximated as the union of
important sequences.
4.4.2 SN-Fatigue Approach
4.4.2.1 General
The fatigue life of a joint may in general be characterised by three time intervals:
T
initial
The crack initiation period or first discernible surface cracking.
T
th
The total time until the crack has propagated through the thickness.
T
sec
The total time until gross loss of structural stiffness with extensive through thickness
cracking (defined as section failure).
Based on inspections for fatigue cracks in the joints, a fatigue reliability updating based on the
outcome of the inspections can be carried out applying Bayesian updating. The inspection results
can for the SN-approach not be used directly to update the estimated accumulated fatigue
damage. However, if a relationship between the damage accumulator D in the SN-approach and
the crack size was available, it would be possible to utilise the inspection results for reliability
updating.
No guidelines or established procedures are available for establishing the relationship between
the accumulated fatigue damage from the SN-approach and the crack size. This relationship may,
however, be obtained by calibrating the parameters describing the crack propagation in the
fracture mechanics approach. In the following the parameters are calibrated by fitting the
probability of having a through thickness crack as a function of time obtained from the fracture
mechanics approach to the results obtained from the SN-approach, applying e.g. least-squares
fitting.
It should be noted that calibrating the through thickness cracking to a SN-curve is in general
inconsistent, as the crack initiation period included in the SN-approach is not incorporated in the
fracture mechanics formulation. This may lead to unconservative results in the reliability
updating based on the outcome of inspections.
More consistent results may be obtained by applying only the SN-curve for the crack
propagation period (if available) in the calibration of the fracture mechanics material parameters,
i.e. a SN-curve describing the number of load cycles it takes for an already initialised crack to
Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability: Application to Jacket Plattforms Page No. 36
DNV Report No. 95-3203 Discussion of Limit States
Sigurdsson,G; E. Cramer;I. Lotsberg, B.Berge Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability Analysis- Application to Jacket
Platforms, DNV Report 95-3203
propagate through the thickness. This approach assumes there exists a model available to
estimate the crack initiation time and that the time period until inspection is greater than the
crack initiation time.
However, very limited information is available for describing the crack initiation time and the
SN-curves for the crack propagation period. The calibration of the fracture mechanics parameters
is therefore in the present study based on SN-curves where the crack initiation period is included
in the modelling of the fatigue capacity applying the SN approach. It should in this connection
also be noted that for welded details, the crack initiation period is relatively small compared to
the whole fatigue life.
4.4.2.2 SN-Fatigue Modelling
SN-data are experimental data giving the number of cycles N of stress range S resulting in fatigue
failure. These data are defined by SN-curves for different structural details.
The design SN-curves are based on a statistical analysis of experimental data. They are given as
linear or piece-wise linear relations between log
10
S and log
10
N. A design curve is defined as the
mean curve, minus two standard deviations of log
10
N obtained from the data fitting. The standard
deviation is computed based on the assumption of a fixed and known slope.
The design SN-curves are thus of the form
log log log
log 10 10
10
10
2 N a m S
N
=
or
N K S
m
=
, S S >
0
where
N number of cycles to failure for stress range S
a a constant relating to the mean SN-curve
log
10
N
the standard deviation of log
10
N
m the inverse slope of the SN-curve
S
0
stress range level for which change in slope occurs, i.e. for bilinear SN-
curve or endurance limit for single slope SN-curve
log
10
K log
log 10
10
2 a
N
The bilinear SN-curve is defined as,
N
K S S S
K S S S
m
m
=
>
;
;
0
2 0
2
K S K S
m m
0 2 0
2
=
where m
2
is the inverse slope of the SN-curve ( for endurance limit at S
0
).
The numerical values for the relevant parameters are summarised in table 7.10 in DNV (1995a).
For tubular joints, the T-curve (DNV 1984) is recommended for modelling the fatigue capacity.
Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability: Application to Jacket Plattforms Page No. 37
DNV Report No. 95-3203 Discussion of Limit States
Sigurdsson,G; E. Cramer;I. Lotsberg, B.Berge Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability Analysis- Application to Jacket
Platforms, DNV Report 95-3203
In air, the T-curve has m=3, which changes to m
2
=5 at N N = =
0
7
10 . For cathodically protected
structures in seawater the T-curve has m=3 and a cut-off value at N N = =
0
8
2 10 . Knowing N
0
and K, the stress range level S
0
can be obtained by
S
K
N
m
0
0
1
=
The fatigue strength of welded joints is dependent on the plate thickness, t, with decreasing
fatigue strength with increasing thickness. The design T-curve is used when the thickness t in a
tubular joint is less than 32 mm. For the thickness t 32 mm a modification of the T-curve is
performed, and the modified T-curve becomes,
log log log log
10 10 10 10
4 32
N K
m t
m S =
S S >
0
or
N t K S
m m
=
( / )
/
32
4
S S >
0
The factor ( / )
/
t
m
32
4
is denoted the thickness-effect factor.
4.4.2.3 Uncertainty in SN-curves
The uncertainties associated with describing the fatigue capacity through empirical SN-curves
are accounted for by considering a stochastic SN-relation. This may be done by treating the
parameters in the deterministic linear or bilinear SN-relation as random variables. I.e. by
modelling the inverse slope m as deterministic and fitting the log
10
N test data from the fatigue
tests to the Normal distribution. The uncertainty modelling of the SN-curve can then be obtained
by modelling K as a Log-Normal distributed stochastic variable. E.g., for the T-curve with
cathodic protection in seawater, where the inverse sloop m is modelled as deterministic and K is
modelled as Log-Normal distributed, the stochastic modelling of the SN-curve is defined by the
following properties:
[ ] [ ]
E K Std K
m m N N
m m N N
= =
= =
= = >
539 10 335 10
3
12 12
1 0
2 0
. .
The importance of modelling the cut-off level N
0
as stochastic should also be evaluated. For
stochastic modelling of N
0
the Normal distribution should be selected, e.g. with
[ ] [ ]
E N CoV N
0
8
0
2 10 010 = = .
4.4.2.4 Fatigue Damage Model
The accumulated fatigue damage is computed from the representative stress distribution and the
SN-capacity model. The accumulated damage depends on the number and magnitude of the
Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability: Application to Jacket Plattforms Page No. 38
DNV Report No. 95-3203 Discussion of Limit States
Sigurdsson,G; E. Cramer;I. Lotsberg, B.Berge Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability Analysis- Application to Jacket
Platforms, DNV Report 95-3203
applied stress cycles. Assuming the accumulated fatigue damage independent of the sequence in
which the stress cycles occur (no sequence effect), the damage accumulation D can be written as,
D
n
N
i
i
i
=
=
1
where n n S
i i
= ( ) is the number of cycles of stress range S
i
in the stress history and N N S
i i
= ( )
is the number of stress cycles of stress range S
i
necessary to cause failure. This formulation of
the fatigue damage accumulation is usually denoted the Miner-Palmgren approach.
The failure criterion defines the degree of accumulated fatigue damage that results in failure. For
a constant amplitude stress variation, it follows directly from the damage definition above that
failure occurs when D 1, as the SN-curves are originally derived from constant amplitude
loading.
For a variable amplitude loading, the value of the damage accumulation D at failure will typically
be random due to the inherent randomness in the stress history and the potential influence of
sequence effects.
For offshore structures, the number of stress cycles resulting in fatigue failure will typically be
large and the inherent uncertainty in the damage accumulation will approach zero. The damage
accumulation, D, is then sufficiently represented by a summation of the expected value of m'th
moment of the local stress response process.
Modelling of the uncertainties associated with the fatigue capacity, , is based on results from
random loading fatigue tests. Because the fatigue behaviour is influenced by many factors,
among them the variability inherent in the material, it is difficult to interpret the test results.
However, there seems to be some coherence to recent published results for welded details, where
a slight non-conservative bias is suggested implemented with uncertainties around 30-60%.
Experimental data suggests that the Miner-Palmgren rule predicts fatigue failure reasonable well
for random loading on loaded components, and that the influence of sequence effects is usually
negligible for random loading typical for offshore structures.
However, for welded joints it appears that the Miner-Palmgren rule is slightly non-conservative.
Biases, in the ratio between the predicted damage and the measured damage, down to 0.7 to 0.8
have been observed.
The response process in the estimation of the fatigue damage accumulation is usually assumed to
be a narrow banded Gaussian process. However, the fatigue stresses may typically be somewhat
wide banded and a rainflow correction factor for wide banded response processes may therefore
be introduced.
The rainflow correction factor for wide banded processes indicates a compensating bias
compared to the bias introduced due to the random loading on welded joints applying the Miner-
Palmgren rule. Therefore, the Miner-Palmgren damage is in the following used unbiased and no
rainflow correction factor is included.
The uncertainty due to this phenomenon as well as model uncertainties are accounted for by
modelling fatigue failure to occur when the total damage D exceeds , where is defined as
stochastic, for which the Normal distribution is recommended with:
[ ] [ ]
E CoV = = 10 0 20 . .
Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability: Application to Jacket Plattforms Page No. 39
DNV Report No. 95-3203 Discussion of Limit States
Sigurdsson,G; E. Cramer;I. Lotsberg, B.Berge Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability Analysis- Application to Jacket
Platforms, DNV Report 95-3203
4.4.2.5 Limit State Formulation
The limit state function applied in the reliability analysis is expressed as,
g D D ( , ) =
The random variable describes general uncertainty associated with the fatigue capacity and D
is the accumulated fatigue damage.
Defining the mean number of stress cycles per time unit to be
0,long term
, the total accumulated
fatigue damage in a service period T can be expressed as
D T D
long term cycle
=
0,
D
cycle
is the expected damage per stress cycle, which depends on the distribution of the local
stress range response process and the associated SN-curve.
Applying a bi-linear SN-curve (e.g. the T-curve) and assuming the stress range distribution
within each sea state j , to be Rayleigh distributed, the expected damage per stress cycle in sea
state j is taken as:
( ) ( )
D
K
St
m S
St K
m S
St
cycle
j
j
m
j
m
j
= +
+ +
1
2 2 1
2 2 2
1
2 2 1
2 2 2
2
2
2 0
2
0
2
( ) ;
( )
;
( )
where (; ) and (; ) are the Incomplete and Complementary Incomplete Gamma functions,
respectively, and St
j
( ) is the standard deviation of the stress process in sea state j .
The expected damage per stress cycle D
cycle
is obtained by summing the weighted expected
damage over all sea states, weighted by the relative number of stress cycles within each sea state.
For a Weibull distributed long term stress range distribution, the expected damage per stress
cycle is calculated as:
D
K
A
m
B
S
A K
A
m
B
S
A
cycle
m
B
m
B
= +
+ +
1
1
1
1
2
2 2 0 0
; ;
where A and B are distribution parameters in the Weibull distribution,
( ) ( )
[ ]
F s s A
s
B
= 1 exp /
4.4.3 The FM-Approach for Fatigue Assessment
4.4.3.1 General
The damage D calculated by the SN fatigue approach and the Miner-Palmgren rule is a damage
measure not related to any physically or measurable parameter. However, the size of the
developed fatigue crack may be applied as a measurable quantity to reflect the degree of fatigue
damage accumulation when the FM-fatigue approach is applied.
Applying the developed crack size as a measure for the fatigue damage accumulation, the extent
of fatigue damage on the structure between the initial condition (design) and the failure condition
Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability: Application to Jacket Plattforms Page No. 40
DNV Report No. 95-3203 Discussion of Limit States
Sigurdsson,G; E. Cramer;I. Lotsberg, B.Berge Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability Analysis- Application to Jacket
Platforms, DNV Report 95-3203
can be related to this physical measurable parameter. The degree of accumulated fatigue damage
in a joint can then be assessed based on the outcome of inspections aiming at determining the
size of fatigue cracks in the joint.
4.4.3.2 Crack Growth Rate
The basis for most fracture mechanics descriptions of crack growth is a relationship between the
average increment in crack growth and the range K of the stress intensity factor K during a
load cycle. The factor is defined as the stress intensity because its magnitude determines the
intensity of the stresses / strains in the crack tip region. The influence of external variables, i.e.
the magnitude and type of loading and the geometry of the cracked body, is modelled in the crack
tip region through the stress intensity factor.
The relationship between the crack growth rate and the stress intensity range K has to be
determined experimentally. Fatigue experiments are normally performed with simple standard
specimens with through-the-thickness cracks subjected to constant stress range.
The main motivation for applying a crack growth model where the stress distribution through the
thickness is taken into account is that it has been observed that the propagation of fatigue cracks
depends highly on the stress distribution. The crack propagation depends further significantly on
the initial size and the initial aspect ratio of the crack.
In order to predict the fatigue crack growth of a surface crack, it is assumed that the crack growth
per stress cycle at any point along the crack front follows the Paris and Erdogan equation. This
equation states that, at a specific point along the crack front, the increment in crack size dr( )
during a load cycle dN is related to the range of the stress intensity factor K
r
( ) for that
specific load cycle through
dr
dN
C K
r r
m
( )
( )( ( ))
=
where C
r
( ) and m are material parameters for that specific point along the crack front and
is the location angle.
To simplify the problem it is assumed that the fatigue crack initially has a semi-elliptical shape
with axes a and c, and that the shape remains semi-elliptical as the crack propagates. This
implies that the crack depth parameter a and the crack length 2c are sufficient parameters for
describing the crack front. As a result of this simplification in the modelling of the crack front
curvature, the general differential equation for the crack growth rate can be replaced by two
coupled differential equations,
da
dN
C K
m
K K a N a
A A A th
= > = ( ) ; ; ( )
0 0
dc
dN
C K K K c N c
C C C th
m
= > = ( ) ; ( ) ;
0 0
The subscripts A and C refer to the deepest point and the end point of the crack at the surface,
respectively. The material parameters C
A
and C
C
may differ due to the general triaxial stress
field. The material property m mainly depends on the fatigue crack propagation, assumed to be
independent of the crack size, both in the depth and surface directions. Normally the failure
Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability: Application to Jacket Plattforms Page No. 41
DNV Report No. 95-3203 Discussion of Limit States
Sigurdsson,G; E. Cramer;I. Lotsberg, B.Berge Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability Analysis- Application to Jacket
Platforms, DNV Report 95-3203
criterion refers to a critical value of the crack depth a or the crack length 2c (for surface cracks);
and the equations are conveniently rewritten as:
dc
da
C
C
K
K
c a c
C
A
C
A
m
=
; ( )
0 0
( )
dN
da
C K
N a N
A
A
m
= =
1
0 0
; ( )
By either fixing the aspect ratio or by expressing the crack length as a function of crack depth,
the first of the above equations is reduced to a constant, and the second equation can be solved
separately. This is referred to as one dimensional crack growth model.
The general expression for the stress-intensity factor is K Y S a
tot
= , where S
tot
is the applied
stress and Y is the geometry function accounting for the effect of the boundaries, i.e. the relevant
dimensions of the structure (width, thickness, crack size, crack front curvature etc.).
4.4.3.3 Crack Size over Time
Since the stress intensity factors in the two-dimensional expression for the crack growth rate
depend on the crack size in a complicated manner, it is generally not possible to obtain a closed
form analytical solution to the coupled differential equations, and numerical solution procedures
have to be applied to solve the coupled ordinary first order differential equations.
In the following, the equivalent one dimensional crack growth model is applied for illustration
purposes only. (For a fixed aspect ratio a c / , or by expressing the crack length as a function of
crack depth, an equivalent one dimensional crack growth model can be defined).
The crack growth rate, or the increment in the crack size per stress cycle, is for one-dimensional
crack growth in the depth direction expressed as,
( )
da
dN
C K a c
m
= ( , )
The variables in the differential equations may, for crack growth models not having a lower
threshold, be separated and integrated to give,
( )
( )
da
Y a
C S
m
m
a
a t
i
m
i
N t
0
1
( )
( )
=
=
where a t ( ) is the crack depth at time t and N t ( ) is the total number of stress cycles in the time
period
[ ]
0, t .
The number of stress cycles to fatigue failure until a critical crack size resulting in e.g. unstable
fracture or plastic collapse is reached, is for offshore structures generally large, and the sum of
the stress ranges can be expressed using the mth moment of the stress range distribution.
The damage accumulation from the stress response process can then be expressed as,
[ ]
( ) ( ) a C N t E S
N
m
=
Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability: Application to Jacket Plattforms Page No. 42
DNV Report No. 95-3203 Discussion of Limit States
Sigurdsson,G; E. Cramer;I. Lotsberg, B.Berge Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability Analysis- Application to Jacket
Platforms, DNV Report 95-3203
where the term ( ) a
N
is an indicator of the damage accumulated by the crack growth from an
initial crack size value a
0
to a crack size a
N
after N stress cycles
( )
( ) a
da
Y a
N
m
m
a
a
N
=
0
For variable amplitude loading, the sequential order of loads may have an influence on the crack
growth rate, however, the sequence effect is typically of minor importance for offshore
structures.
The above model can be directly extrapolated to be valid also for crack growth models involving
threshold levels on the stress intensity factor. Special attention then has to be made in the
derivation of the m'th moment of the stress intensity range as the stress intensity is a function of
both the crack size and the stress level. For crack growth models involving thresholds, the
damage indicator can be expressed as
( )
( )
( )
a
da
G a Y a
N
m
m
a
a
N
=
0
where G a ( ) is a reduction factor in the range
[ ]
0 1 , depending on the threshold level K
th
and
the stress range process S .
When the long-term distribution of stress ranges S is defined through a Weibull distribution,
with scale parameter A and shape parameter B, the m'th moment of the stress range is
[ ]
E S A
m
B
m m
= +
1
and the reduction factor G a ( ) can be shown to be,
G a
m
B
K
A Y a
m
B
th
B
( )
;
=
+
1
1
where ( ) and ( ; ) are the gamma function and the complementary incomplete gamma
function, respectively.
For a stationary Gaussian stress range process, a good approximation in the accumulation
analysis is obtained by replacing the Gaussian process with an equivalent ideal narrow banded
process with the same spectral moments
0
and
2
. The m'th moment of the stress range then
becomes,
[ ] ( )
E S
m
m
m
= +
2 2 1
2
0
and the mean number of stress cycles in a time period T is equal to the mean number of up-
crossings of the mean stress level in that period
Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability: Application to Jacket Plattforms Page No. 43
DNV Report No. 95-3203 Discussion of Limit States
Sigurdsson,G; E. Cramer;I. Lotsberg, B.Berge Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability Analysis- Application to Jacket
Platforms, DNV Report 95-3203
N T T
T
= =
0
2
0
1
2
4.4.3.4 Fatigue Quality
One element affecting the fatigue life of a component is the initial fatigue quality. The initial
fatigue quality is a material and manufacturing property, thus representing material and process
defects such as inclusions, as well as damage caused during fabrication and installation which is
not detected by quality control.
For the purpose of design, the initial fatigue quality can be characterised by the initial crack size
and/or the time to fatigue crack initiation. The initial crack size a
0
and the time to crack
initiation T
0
(or number of load cycles N
0
) are often not well-known parameters and should
therefore be considered as random variables with a certain statistical distribution.
The time to crack initiation is being defined as the time from beginning of fatigue loading to the
time of possible crack detection. Data on N
0
for welded steel offshore structures, which are
coupled to a crack size a
0
are sparse. However, for welded structures a common approach is to
neglect the crack initiation time due to the presence of initial weld defects.
Cracks existing in the structure entering service include defects considered acceptable according
to codes, as well as those undetected during fabrication and installation. It is a formidable task
carrying out calculations allowing for the occurrence of defects in all shapes, locations and
orientations which might arise, and it is common practice to simplify the modelling by assuming
the cracks to be of the same type, i.e. undercuts oriented normal to the principal stress at the
location, or that they can be grouped. Since planar defects, like lack of penetration, undercuts,
etc. are similar in nature to a crack, the number of cycles to initiate a fatigue crack from such
defects is small compared to the overall life.
Surface defects are usually more dangerous than embedded defects as they are often located at
stress concentrations and normal to the principal stress. Experience has shown that almost all
fatigue cracks resulted from an initial surface defect.
4.4.3.5 Fatigue Crack Growth Material Parameters
Fatigue tests indicate a considerable amount of scatter in the obtained fatigue capacities, which is
believed to be a result of inhomogeneous material properties. However, fatigue cracks associated
with welded joints may propagate through different materials, i.e. the weld metal, the heat-
affected-zone (HAZ) or the base (plate) material. For welded joints, cracks often initiate at the
weld toe from undercuts, slag inclusions and/or initial cracks, and propagate through HAZ and
into the base material. Thus, the crack growth data used for fatigue life predictions must be
representative, concerning inhomogeneous material and differences in material properties.
Relevant crack growth data for welded joints should be expressed through the material
parameters m and C in the Paris equation. Crack growth data are generated in the laboratory
under constant cyclic loading on simple specimens with accepted characterising stress intensity
factors. The challenge is to define reasonable distributions for the material parameters and to
estimate the distribution parameters based on available laboratory test results.
Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability: Application to Jacket Plattforms Page No. 44
DNV Report No. 95-3203 Discussion of Limit States
Sigurdsson,G; E. Cramer;I. Lotsberg, B.Berge Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability Analysis- Application to Jacket
Platforms, DNV Report 95-3203
Several studies have indicated a high negative correlation between m and lnC. However, the
choice of randomisation should be based on a judgement of what is a reasonable representation
of reality. The probability model implicit in the recommendations for Paris constants in BSI PD
6493 (1991) and DNV (1984) is based on a deterministic m and randomised C. It is important for
this description that the typical crack growth rates (low and intermediate) are adequately fitted.
In Table 4.6, published values for lnC and m are given according to DNV (1984). The values are
based on collected data from various investigations and are recommended when other relevant
information is not available.
Table 4.6 Modelling of lnC and min Paris equation. Units [N, mm]
Environment m lnC (mean, std.dev.)
In air and non corrosive 3.1 Normal(-29.84, 0.55)
In sea water 3.5 Normal(-31.01, 0.77)
It should be noted that the values for lnC given above are only valid for the units [N, mm], and
that it is necessary to adjust the values for other units. The most typical conversion is from mm to
m:
[ ] [ ]
ln( ) ln( ) ( . ) ln( ) C C m
N,m N,mm
= + 15 1 1000
Offshore structures are subjected to numerous cycles in the low crack growth rate regime, and it
is therefore of importance to establish the threshold values, K
th
, below which stress intensity
the crack is non-propagating. Considerable scatter has been reported for the modelling of the
threshold level, and for stress intensities close to the threshold level the crack growth rates are
found to be sensitive to the mean stress and environmental factors.
4.4.3.6 Limit State Formulation / Failure Criteria
Many uncertainties are related to the fatigue life predictions of offshore structures, both for
application of SN-curves, the Miner type cumulative damage models, and the fracture mechanics
based models. Uncertainties in the loading conditions, the material parameters, the initial fatigue
quality and the stress intensity factor have to be considered. In probabilistic fracture mechanics
these parameters are represented by random variables.
Reliability assessments for fatigue crack growth can be expressed as limit state formulations. The
failure criteria may be defined as,
a a
C N
0
where a
C
(or c
C
) is the critical crack size based on serviceability criteria, e.g. through the
thickness crack or economic repair limits, or ultimate collapse criteria, i.e. unstable fracture and
plastic collapse, or buckling that significantly reduces the static strength. a
N
is the size of the
developed crack after N stress cycles.
Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability: Application to Jacket Plattforms Page No. 45
DNV Report No. 95-3203 Discussion of Limit States
Sigurdsson,G; E. Cramer;I. Lotsberg, B.Berge Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability Analysis- Application to Jacket
Platforms, DNV Report 95-3203
As the damage indicator ( ) a is a monotonically increasing function of the crack size, failure
occurs when the damage indicator for the critical crack size ( ) a
C
is exceeded by the
accumulated load effect C S
i
m
i
N
1
. The failure criterion can then be written as
( )
( ) ( )
( )
a a
Y x x
dx C S
C N
m
m
a
a
C
i
m
i
N
=
=
1
0
1
and the safety margin M is defined as
( )
M
Y x x
dx C S
m
m
a
a
C
i
m
i
N
=
=
1
0
1
( )
The failure probability, i.e., the probability that the size of the crack exceeds a critical limit
within the time period T (or N) is then,
P P M
F
= ( ) 0
4.4.4 Load and Response Modelling
4.4.4.1 General
The major time varying loads on jacket structures are generally wave induced loads. An adequate
description of ocean waves is therefore necessary for assessing the fatigue accumulation in the
structure.
The long-term stress range response distribution is defined based on a weighted sum of Rayleigh
distributed stress ranges within each short-term condition, i.e. the stress process for each short-
term period is considered to be a narrow banded zero-mean stationary Gaussian process.
In the spectral fatigue analysis, only the load response caused by fluctuating wave loading is
considered. The applied wave model assumptions do not give an exact description of the real sea
state. However, from an engineering point of view they are very attractive due to the
simplifications they imply in the structural analysis.
This chapter focuses on the load and response modelling applied for fatigue assessment. First the
sea environment model is considered. Then the load response model and the global structural
analysis, defining the transfer functions for selected forces, are described. Finally the local stress
analysis is discussed. The sources of uncertainty and their treatment are also discussed.
4.4.4.2 Sea State Description
The load model is based on a description of the wave conditions within a set of stationary short
term sea states. Each sea state is characterised by
Main wave direction
0
, measured relative to a given reference direction
Characteristic sea state parameters:
- Significant wave height, H
S
, defined as the average of the upper third of the wave heights
- Mean zero up-crossing period, T
Z
, defined as the time between successive up-crossing of
the still water level, averaged over the number of waves.
Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability: Application to Jacket Plattforms Page No. 46
DNV Report No. 95-3203 Discussion of Limit States
Sigurdsson,G; E. Cramer;I. Lotsberg, B.Berge Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability Analysis- Application to Jacket
Platforms, DNV Report 95-3203
Wave spreading function
Wave spectrum model e.g. PM or JONSWAP spectra
For each sea state, the long-term probabilities of the different main wave directions are given
along with a wave scatter diagram for each direction. A wave scatter diagram defines the
occurrence probability for each set of H
S
and T
Z
values.
A unique wave spreading function may be assigned to all, or a subset, of the wave-statistics
defined by each assigned scatter diagram.
Main wave directions:
Sets of wave observations may be sorted with respect to the main wave directions if
directional buoy or hindcast data are available with statistics on the observations for different
sectors. Otherwise, the statistical properties for the waves may be assumed identical for all
sectors. The main wave direction denotes the middle direction for each of the defined sectors,
and the structural analysis is for simplicity only performed for waves at these discrete
directions. Each main wave direction i is defined by the incoming wave direction angle
i
,
measured relative to a given reference direction, defined as the structures global x-axis. An
example of sector numbering and main wave directions is shown in Figure 4.7.
N
Reference direction
(Global X-axis)
N
E
S
W
8 1
7
6
4
3
2
5
M
a
in
w
a
v
e
d
ire
c
tio
n
n
o
. 2
2
Wave spreading
function
a) b)
2
w( , )
2
-
9
0
-
4
5
0
4
5
9
0
Reference direction
(Global X-axis)
Figure 4.7 a) Example of sector numbering.
b) Main wave direction in the structure co-ordinate system.
The main wave directions are given by a set of prescribed discrete directions. The probability
distribution of the main wave direction is given as a discrete distribution with
P
i
where N
=
=
1
1
Eight different main directions are considered i.e. N
=8 .
Wave scatter diagram:
The scatter diagram gives the occurrence frequency of a discrete number of combinations of
( H
S
, T
Z
), where the scatter diagram is commonly defined on a bi-variate discrete form. The
discrete values of ( H
S
, T
Z
) data may be approximated by an analytical bi-variate distribution,
e.g. a joint log-normal distribution,
( )
F h t
h t
H T s z
s z
S Z
,
log
,
log
; =
1
1
2
2
where ( ) ; is the cumulative distribution function for a pair of standardised normally
distributed random variables with a correlation coefficient . The marginal distribution for
H
S
is
( ) F h
h
H s
s
S
=
log
1
1
and the conditional distribution of T
Z
given the value of H
S
is (see Figure 4.8)
( )
( )
F t h
t h
T H
z s
z s
Z S
|
log log
, =
+
2
2
1
1
2
2
1
Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability: Application to Jacket Plattforms Page No. 48
DNV Report No. 95-3203 Discussion of Limit States
Sigurdsson,G; E. Cramer;I. Lotsberg, B.Berge Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability Analysis- Application to Jacket
Platforms, DNV Report 95-3203
H
S
T
Z
h
S
j
h
S
i
p t h
T H Z S
Z s
i
i
|
( | )
p t h
T H Z S
Z s
j
j
|
( | )
Figure 4.8 Marginal continuous probability density function for H
S
with continuous
probability density function for T
Z
given H
S
The distribution function is thus specified by 5 parameters ( )
1 1 2 2
, , , , and these are
uniquely related to the moments of ( H
S
, T
Z
) as
[ ]
E H
S
= +
exp
1
1
2
2
[ ]
E T
Z
= +
exp
2
2
2
2
[ ] [ ] ( ) ( )
Var H E H
S S
=
2
1
2
1 exp
[ ] [ ] ( ) ( )
Var T E T
Z Z
=
2
2
2
1 exp
[ ] [ ] [ ] ( ) ( )
Cov H T E H E T
S Z S Z
, exp =
1 2
1
From the available wave scatter diagram, the best estimates
( )
,
,
,
,
1 1 2 2
for
( )
1 1 2 2
, , , , are obtained. When different scatter diagrams are applied, i.e. separately for
each main wave direction, the fitting should be made separately for each wave direction.
Wave spreading function:
The wave energy spreading function is introduced to account for the energy spreading among
directions for a short crested sea. Real sea waves are not infinitely long crested and directional
spectra are required for a complete statistical description of the sea. The directional spectra
accounts for the spreading of wave energy by direction as well as frequency. A spectrum in
terms of direction is assumed of the form
Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability: Application to Jacket Plattforms Page No. 49
DNV Report No. 95-3203 Discussion of Limit States
Sigurdsson,G; E. Cramer;I. Lotsberg, B.Berge Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability Analysis- Application to Jacket
Platforms, DNV Report 95-3203
( ) ( ) ( ) S S w
, =
where ( ) w is the wave energy spreading function, which is herein assumed independent of
the wave frequency.
It is commonly assumed that the wave energy is spread over a set of directions in a region of
/ 2 on both sides of the main direction. The function is selected in such a way that it gives
higher weights to the directions closer to the main direction. For a long crested sea the wave
energy spreading is not introduced by definition. The wave energy spreading function for a
given main wave direction
i
may in general depend on ( H
S
, T
Z
).
The common modelling of wave energy spreading function is a frequency independent cosine
power function of the form:
( ) ( )
w
N
N
i
N
i i
, cos =
+
<
1 2
1
2
1
2
1
2
and zero otherwise. ( ) is the gamma function,
i
is the main wave direction no. i, and N is a
real number. Figure 4.9 shows the directional function for different values of N . For large
values of N , all the energy is concentrated around the main wave direction.
i ( ) degree
N = 20
N = 10
N = 4
N = 2
-90 -45 0 45 90
c = 0.5
Figure 4.9 The spreading function for different values of the cosine power N.
The spreading function weights are obtained by integration of the energy spreading function
over the proper ranges. The analytical spreading function is discretised. The analytical
directionality function is approximated by a histogram. The ordinate of each histogram box
corresponds to the area of the analytical function over the width of the box.
Wave spectrum model:
The wave spectrum defines the distribution of wave energy over different frequencies for a
specified sea state. A commonly applied wave spectrum is the one side Gamma spectrum,
where the Gamma spectrum is uniquely defined in terms of the sea state parameters ( ) H T
S Z
, ,
( )
( )
S A B
= >
exp ; 0
Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability: Application to Jacket Plattforms Page No. 50
DNV Report No. 95-3203 Discussion of Limit States
Sigurdsson,G; E. Cramer;I. Lotsberg, B.Berge Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability Analysis- Application to Jacket
Platforms, DNV Report 95-3203
The gamma spectrum may have a variety of shapes depending on the values of the parameter
giving the power of the high frequency tail and the parameter describing the steepness of
the low frequency part. The constants A and B are related to H
S
and T
Z
by,
A H
T
S
Z
=
1
16
2
1
3
1
3
2
1
2
B
T
Z
=
2
1
3
2
2
The values = 4 and = 5 yields the PM spectrum (Pierson and Moskowitz 1964).
4.4.4.3 Global Structural Analysis
The structural response to wave induced loading may be determined by the use of finite element
methods (FEM). This includes modelling of the structural stiffness, the damping (only for
dynamic analysis), the influence of marine growth, the stiffness from the foundation and the
wave induced loading.
The finite element model is an idealised representation of the real structure, where the following
simplifications are commonly introduced,
Smaller eccentricities are not modelled.
Eccentricities in the joints are often not modelled.
The marine growth is not included in the calculation of the natural frequencies.
The jacket is modelled as a frame with members connected at rigid joints. In reality the joints
are flexible, and on the global level the joint flexibility is known to have some influence on the
derived response, (Appendix C DNV (1977), Bouwkamp et al. (1980), Fessler and Spooner
(1981), UEG (1984)). The joint flexibility affects the bending moments in braces, the axial
force distribution and the natural frequencies.
Wave load calculation:
The linear Airy wave theory is adopted for fatigue analysis. In the Airy theory, the water
particle velocity and accelerations are linear with wave amplitude. The linear wave theory is
based on the assumption that the wave height is much smaller than both the wave length and
the water depth.
Hydrodynamic loading on the jacket structure is calculated by Morison's equation, (Morison
et al. (1950)), not incorporating the structural motion. The in-line force p per unit length on a
vertical slender cylinder in unsteady flow is defined as,
p u u u = + C
D
C
D
d n n m n
2 4
2
( ) for section
forces and moments F t
i
( ) in each beam end, e.g., for axial force, in-plane and out-of-plane
bending moments. These end reactions are used to calculate the nominal stresses in the braces.
The nominal stresses from the global analysis are scaled with the Stress Concentration Factors
(SCF) to account for local geometrical effects.
Existing design codes, e.g. (DNV (1984), AWS (1984), DoE (1984), API (1991, 1993),), use
different definitions of SCF. The hot-spot stress is here defined as: the greatest value around the
brace/chord intersection of the extrapolation to the weld toe of the geometric stress distribution
near the weld. This hot-spot stress definition incorporates the effects of the overall geometry but
omits the stress concentrating influence of the weld itself which results in a local stress
concentration.
Parameteric formulas exist only for simple joints with members in one plane (e.g. Efthyminu
(1985, 1988), Kuang et. al (1977)). In real structures one finds very few of these simple joints.
No reference is made to sign, location, or orientation of the stress values representative of the
SCFs. Little information is available on SCFs in overlapping and/or multiplanar and/or grouted
and/or ring stiffened joints. An inherent shortcoming of the available SCF equations for K-joints
is that they were derived under balanced axial forces or self-equilibrated bending moments.
Experimental work performed by (Dijkstra and de Back (1980)) shows that the SCFs are highly
dependent on the type of loading on the individual member.
A comparison between various parameteric formulas available for an axially loaded T-joint at
the chord saddle (Lalani et al. (1986)), demonstrated that significant differences existed.
In general, there are six load cases for each free end. However, it is common approach in the
fatigue assessment of jackets to neglect the effect of the torsional moments and the shear forces
in the analysis.
The hot-spot stress may be calculated as (DNV (1993b)):
hot ax ipb
ipb
local opb
ipb
local
SCF
N
A
SCF
M
I
z SCF
M
I
y = ' '
where
N the axial force in the brace
M
ipb
the bending moment in the brace about the IPB-axis
M
opb
the bending moment in the brace about the OPB-axis
A the cross section area
I the moment of inertia for the pipe section
Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability: Application to Jacket Plattforms Page No. 53
DNV Report No. 95-3203 Discussion of Limit States
Sigurdsson,G; E. Cramer;I. Lotsberg, B.Berge Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability Analysis- Application to Jacket
Platforms, DNV Report 95-3203
y z
local local
' , ' the co-ordinates of the stress point relative to the section centre of gravity, in
the in-plane/out-of-plan axis system
SCF
ax
SCF for axial stress
SCF
ipb
SCF for in-plan bending stress
SCF
opb
SCF for out-of-plan bending stress
It is a common practice to check the fatigue life of 8 points along the brace/chord intersection,
i.e. the SCFs are calculated for eight locations around each brace/chord intersection.
Based on the transfer functions H
F
i
( ) for all section forces (i.e. i=1: axial force, i=2: in-plan
bending moment and i=3: out-of-plan bending moment), the cross section properties and the
SCFs, the spectral density of the hot-spot stress in a unidirectional sea state is defined from:
S I I H H S
i
j i
j F F
i j
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
*
=
= = 1
3
1
3
where the asterisk denotes the complex conjugate and
I
SCF
A
ax
1
=
I
SCF
I
z
ipb
local 2
= '
I
SCF
I
y
iob
local 3
= '
The parametric formulas for SCFs do not provide information about the variation of SCFs
along the intersection brace/chord. This lead to uncertainties in the estimation of the real hot-
spot stress when the maximum resulting stress due to axial force, in-plane and out-of plane
bending moments is to be defined.
Because the position of the hot-spot is not known, a common procedure is to add the
maximum stresses derived separately from the axial and bending loads in order to obtain the
hot-spot stress. Such an approach will usually result in conservative estimates of the hot-spot
stresses. The degree of conservatism depends on the actual geometry and the contribution of
bending stresses to the total hot-spot stress. In order to reduce the degree of conservatism, the
Uncertainty associated with the modelling of the SCFs may be defined in two levels:
The first level is one single common uncertainty factor on all the stress concentration
factors. The uncertainty in stress concentration is due to the fabrication inaccuracies and
approximations made in the stress calculation or joint classification.
The second level is uncertainty on the SCFs for each degree of freedom, i.e. for axial load,
in-plan bending moment and out-of-plan bending moment.
Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability: Application to Jacket Plattforms Page No. 54
DNV Report No. 95-3203 Discussion of Limit States
Sigurdsson,G; E. Cramer;I. Lotsberg, B.Berge Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability Analysis- Application to Jacket
Platforms, DNV Report 95-3203
4.4.5 Stress Range Distribution
The fatigue strength is expressed in terms of the number of stress cycles N of stress range S
leading to failure. Statistics for the number of stress cycles and the stress range distribution must
consequently be produced from the statistical description of the hot-spot stress process.
For a random stress process the definition of stress cycles is not unique and several different
methods can be applied to define the number of stress cycles, including the peak counting
method, the range counting method and the rain flow counting. A detailed description of the
methods can be found in e.g. (Madsen et al. (1986)).
For a narrow band stress process there is only one maximum between two consecutive up
crossings of the mean level making the identification of stress cycles straightforward. The three
mentioned counting methods also give identical results for such a process. For a wide band
process or a process with a multi-mode spectral density function, there may be several local
maxima between one up crossing of the mean level and the following mean up crossing, and the
three counting methods will give different results.
The rain flow counting method gives generally results which are in better agreement with
experimental results than the peak counting method which tends to overestimate the fatigue
damage, and the range counting method which tends to underestimate the fatigue damage. The
rain flow counting method is, however, used for time series of the stress process and has not yet
been formulated for a response described by its spectral density function, even for a Gaussian
stress process.
For offshore jacket structures with insignificant dynamic amplification, the hot-spot stress
process tends to be narrow-banded as the wave loading is reasonably narrow banded and the
structure behaves in a quasi-static manner. However, cancellation effects may give rise to a
bimodal or even multi modal spectral density functions for the response.
Jacket structures which have a large resonant component in the response also have narrow
banded response as the damping ratio generally is small. It is therefore believed that there is not
introduced any error of importance by assuming the stress response process to be narrow banded
and applying the peak counting method.
The calculation of the fatigue life involves an estimation of the total number of stress cycles and
the "crack driving force", i.e. the m'th moment of the stress range distribution, E S
m
[ ] . Applying
the peak counting method, the stress range is defined as two times the peak value and the number
of stress cycles is equal to the number of up crossings of the mean level. The mean number of
stress cycles for a stationary stress process in a time period T is then
N T
T
=
0
where
0
is the mean up-crossing rate of the process. For a narrow banded Gaussian stress
process the stress ranges are Rayleigh distributed with the distribution function
F s
s
Std
s
S
( ) exp
( ( ))
; =
> 1
8
0
2
2
0
2
0
1
2
=
( ( )) Std
2
0
=
where
i
is the i'th spectral moment, defined as:
To estimate long term properties for E S
m
[ ] and
0
, the long term distribution of sea states
( H T
S Z
) must be taken into account.
The long term distribution of stress ranges is obtained as the weighted average of the short term
distributions, weighted with the relative number of stress cycles within each specific short term
sea state. Each sea state is described by the significant wave height H
s
, the mean zero crossing
period T
z
and the mean wave direction . For each hot-spot, the short term stress range
distribution function for the i'th sea state is defined as F s H T
S s z i
( , , , ) , where F
S
( ) is given by the
equations above with standard deviation depending on ( , , ) H T
s z
.
The fraction of sea states with the i'th combination of ( , , ) H T
s z
is denoted by q
i
, and the mean
zero crossing frequency for the stress process with this sea state parameter combination is
denoted as
0,i
. The long term mean zero crossing frequency is
0 0 , , long term
= q
i i
T
z
H
s
since the sum of the weights q
i
is unity. The expected number of stress cycles in a time period T
is obtained by multiplying
0, long term
by T.
The long term distribution of stress ranges may now be determined as
F q F s H T
S i i
T
z
H
s
S s z i ,
,
,
( , , , )
long term
long term
=
1
0
0
This long term distribution function is of a somewhat complicated form and requires
considerable computation time.
When performing the updating of the estimated fatigue reliability based on the outcome of
inspections, there are usually no observations available of the environment, loads or response of
the structure. It is therefore an unnecessary complication to apply a rather detailed load model in
the reliability updating based on inspections of cracks. A more computational advantageous
procedure is instead to model the load in terms of a long term stress distribution at each hot-spot,
where the applied long term stress distribution is derived from the detailed analysis. A fit of the
computed long-term distribution to a simpler distribution may be used.
Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability: Application to Jacket Plattforms Page No. 56
DNV Report No. 95-3203 Discussion of Limit States
Sigurdsson,G; E. Cramer;I. Lotsberg, B.Berge Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability Analysis- Application to Jacket
Platforms, DNV Report 95-3203
The two parameter Weibull distribution has been confirmed in many studies to provide the best
fit for such a long term distribution of the load response. The load model with a large number of
random variables can be simplified to a model with only two uncertain distribution parameters
applying a long term Weibull stress range distribution:
The task is then to determine the values for the distribution parameters which result in a close
agreement between the original and the fitted distribution, where the goodness of the fit is judged
by the difference in the estimated fatigue damage by using the two approaches.
Experience shows that the value of the shape parameter B is typically in the area between 0.8 and
1.2, with the lower values for drag loading dominated structures and the higher values for inertia
loading dominated structures.
The estimated fatigue damage D within a time period T having a Weibull long term stress range
distribution and a fatigue capacity defined through a SN-curve (not accounting for possible
threshold or change in slope) is given as
[ ]
D
T
K
E S
T
K
A
m
B
m m
=
=
+
0 0
1
, , long term long term
The Weibull distribution parameters can be determined by fitting the Weibull distribution at two
fractile levels. The fractiles corresponding to these two levels define three stress range intervals.
An intuitively good choice for selecting the two fractile levels for which the fitting is to be
determined is the fractile levels dividing the contribution to the fatigue damage into three equal
intervals.
With the SN-curve slope parameter m = 3 and the Weibull shape parameter B = 1, such a
division is obtained for the 95'th and 99'th percentile fractile levels. Defining the corresponding
stress values for the original long term stress range distribution s
95
and s
99
, the Weibull
parameters A and B for the fitted distribution are then
A
k s a
k
=
exp
ln ln
. . 0 99 0 95
1
B
s A
=
ln( ln . )
ln ln
.
0 05
0 95
where
k =
=
ln( ln . )
ln( ln . )
.
0 05
0 01
0 718
Experience shows that the fit is quite stable for varying choices of the fractile level, which
confirms the goodness in the choice of the Weibull distribution. More elaborate fitting
procedures may involve fitting several fractile levels using with a least square, or other, fitting
procedure.
Uncertainties associated with the original long term distribution can be reflected through a
stochastic modelling of the fitted long term Weibull distribution parameters by assuming the
parameters ln( ) A and 1/ B to be e.g. bivariate normally distributed.
The stochastic Weibull distribution parameters can be fitted in an equivalent manner. Knowing
the variance and the second spectral moment of the hot-spot stress within each sea-state and the
Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability: Application to Jacket Plattforms Page No. 57
DNV Report No. 95-3203 Discussion of Limit States
Sigurdsson,G; E. Cramer;I. Lotsberg, B.Berge Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability Analysis- Application to Jacket
Platforms, DNV Report 95-3203
long term distribution of sea states for the given structural location, the five quantities
[ ]
E A ln( ) ,
Std A [ln( )] ,
[ ]
E B 1/ , Std B [ / ] 1 and
[ ]
ln( ), / A B 1 can be estimated based on three cumulative
probability levels approximately dividing the fatigue contribution into four areas of equal
magnitude, applying two stress levels at each probability level, (Skjong & Torhaug (1991)).
This procedure requires six FORM analyses in order to estimate the five parameters and thus
requires considerable resources, and for some cases an alternative procedure may be required due
to possible convergence problems in the FORM analyses. An alternative and much simpler
stochastic fitting procedure is summarised in the following;
calculate two (deterministic) fatigue lives T
life1
and T
life2
applying constant slope SN-curve
for two different, m
1
and m
2
, where the long term fatigue damage is calculated as a sum of
partial damages within each short term sea state (e.g. a stochastic fatigue analysis using the
SESAM software system).
calculate the equivalent Weibull parameters A and B which give the same fatigue lives, by
solving (numerically) the following two equations with two unknown parameters (i.e. A and
B):
T
K
A m B
life
long term
m
=
+
1
0
1
1
1
,
( / )
T
K
A m B
life
long term
m
=
+
2
0
2
2
1
,
( / )
The influence of different choices of m
1
and m
2
on the estimated value of the Weibull shape
and scale parameters A and B has been studied and is shown to be very limited.
calculate the probability of failure as function of the service time, applying a probabilistic SN-
fatigue approach, where the long term fatigue damage accumulation is calculated as a sum of
the partial damages within each short term sea state.
assume B to be deterministic and ln( ) A to be Normal distributed with mean values equal to
the value obtained by solving for the two equations above. Calibrate the uncertainty in ln( ) A
such that the probability for fatigue failure over time, applying the Weibull distribution,
approximates the results obtained when the long term fatigue damage accumulation is
calculated as the sum of the partial fatigue damages within each short term sea state.
This simple procedure is applied in the application example presented in DNV (1995b).
4.4.6 Formulation of Inspection Results
The objective of an in-service inspection plan is to keep the structure at an acceptable safety level
during its service life with respect to human lives, pollution, operation (production) and costs of
structure and equipment. The discussion of updating with respect to in-service inspections
presented in this subsection is limited to fatigue related inspections for a single location.
In-service inspection is performed in order to assure that the existing cracks in the structure,
which may have been present from the initial delivery or have arisen at a later stage during the
service time do not exceed maximum tolerable sizes. The reliability of a Non-Destructive
Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability: Application to Jacket Plattforms Page No. 58
DNV Report No. 95-3203 Discussion of Limit States
Sigurdsson,G; E. Cramer;I. Lotsberg, B.Berge Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability Analysis- Application to Jacket
Platforms, DNV Report 95-3203
Examination (NDE) is described by the ability to detect an existing crack as a function of the
crack size and by the uncertainty associated with the sizing of an identified crack.
The detection ability as a function of a defect size is defined by the Probability Of Detection
(POD) curve,
P x P x ( ) ( ) = detection of crack
where x is the size of the crack (usually crack length 2c ). It can be shown that the cumulative
distribution function for the smallest detectable crack size is expressed through the POD curve.
In the General Guideline (DNV 1995a) typical POD curves for different inspection scenarios are
presented. The curves are defined on the form,
( )
P c
c x
b
( )
/
2 1
1
1 2
0
=
+
where the values for the distribution parameters x
0
and b depend on the inspection scenario.
In Table 4.7 typical values for x
0
and b for different inspection scenarios are given. The
corresponding POD curves are shown in Figure 4.10.
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Crack length (mm)
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
P
r
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y
O
f
D
e
t
e
c
t
i
o
n
(
P
O
D
)
MPI Under water
MPI Above water; ground test surface
MPI Above water; not ground test surface
Eddy current
Figure 4.10 POD curves for different inspection scenarios.
Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability: Application to Jacket Plattforms Page No. 59
DNV Report No. 95-3203 Discussion of Limit States
Sigurdsson,G; E. Cramer;I. Lotsberg, B.Berge Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability Analysis- Application to Jacket
Platforms, DNV Report 95-3203
Table 4.7 POD distribution parameters for different inspection scenarios
Inspection Scenario x
0
b
MPI under water 2.950 0.905
MPI above water;
ground test surface
4.030 1.297
MPI above water;
not ground test surface
8.325 0.785
Eddy Current 12.28 1.790
Regardless of whether or not cracks are detected, each inspection provides additional information
to that available at the design stage which can be used to update the reliability. This can lead to
modifications of future inspection plans, changes in the inspection method, or a decision on
repair or replacement.
When a repair of a detected crack is made it is important to account for the information that a
repair was necessary. Often it is not possible to determine if the unexpected large crack size has
been caused by a large initial size, by material properties poorer than anticipated, or by a loading
of the crack area larger than anticipated.
The updating based on inspection results can be performed with the stress range distributions
resulting from detailed uncertainty modelling of the environmental conditions (sea scatter
diagram, wave energy spreading and wave spectrum), response transfer function and stress
concentrations.
It is, however, extremely time effective to calibrate a stress range distribution with a smaller
number of random variables. The distribution parameters, A and B, for the approximated long-
term Weibull stress range distribution, are calibrated to include the uncertainties described above.
Inspection updating is based on the definition of conditional probability,
P F I
P F I
P I
( | )
( )
( )
=
P F I ( | ) is the probability that event F occurs given that event I occurs. For example, if F is the
failure of a structural component and I is the inspection event, then P F I ( | ) is the estimated
probability of failure given the inspection outcome.
4.4.7 Event Margins with Inspections Results:
The influence of the inspection results are in the reliability modelling formulated through event
margins.
An inspection results in either no detection or the detection of a crack. This can be formulated as
follows,
i) 2 2 c T c
i pod
( )
Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability: Application to Jacket Plattforms Page No. 60
DNV Report No. 95-3203 Discussion of Limit States
Sigurdsson,G; E. Cramer;I. Lotsberg, B.Berge Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability Analysis- Application to Jacket
Platforms, DNV Report 95-3203
ii) 2 2 c T c
j obs
( ) =
In the first case, no cracks were found in the inspection after the time T
i
, implying that any
cracks were smaller than the smallest detectable crack size 2c
pod
, where 2c
pod
is defined from
the POD curve for the applied NDE method.
In the second case, a crack size 2c
obs
is observed after the time T
j
, where 2c
obs
is random due to
uncertainties in the crack sizing.
For each inspection which does not result in a crack detection, an event margin H
i
, i s = 1 2 , , ,
can be defined similar to the safety margin used to describe fatigue failure, where for a 1-D crack
propagation model may be formulated as:
( )
[ ]
H
Y x x
dx C N E S
i
m
m
a
a c
pod
i
m
=
1
0
2
( )
( )
This event margin is positive as the developed crack size is smaller than the detectable crack
size.
For each measurement resulting in the detection of a crack, an event margin H
j
can similarly be
defined as
( )
[ ]
H
Y x x
dx C N E S
j
m
m
a
a c
obs
j
m
=
1
0
2
( )
( )
This safety margin is zero as the developed crack size is equal to the observed crack size.
The situation is envisaged where no crack is detected in the first r inspections at a location, while
a crack is detected by the r+1'th inspection and its size is measured at this and the following s-1
inspections. The updated failure probability is in this case
P P g H H H H
F
u
r r r s
= > > = =
+ +
( ( ) | ) X 0 0 0 0 0
1 1
A more general situation involves simultaneous consideration of several locations with
potentially dangerous cracks for which inspections are carried out. The updating procedure still
applies when due consideration is taken to the dependence between basic variables referring to
different locations. A more detailed description concerning failure probability calculations of
parallel systems is given in the DNV PROBAN Theory Manual (DNV 1993a).
In addition to inspection, the knowledge that a repair has been performed can be used to update
the failure probability. When a repair is made at time N
rep
stress cycles, the crack length a
rep
is
measured. The event margin H
rep
is defined as
( )
[ ]
H
Y x x
dx C N E S
m
m
a
a
m
rep rep
rep
= =
1
0
0
( )
The crack size present after repair and a possible inspection is a random variable a
0,new
and the
material properties after repair are m
new
and C
new
. These variables may or may not be the same
Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability: Application to Jacket Plattforms Page No. 61
DNV Report No. 95-3203 Discussion of Limit States
Sigurdsson,G; E. Cramer;I. Lotsberg, B.Berge Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability Analysis- Application to Jacket
Platforms, DNV Report 95-3203
as the original depending on the type of repair, grinding or welding repair. The safety margin
after repair is M
new
,
( )
[ ]
M
Y x x
dx C N N E S
m
m
a
a
m
C
new
new new rep
new
new
new
=
1
0
( )
( )
,
and the updated failure probability after repair is
P P M H
F
u
rep
= = ( | )
new
0 0
4.5 Total structural collapse (ULS)
4.5.1 General
The structural behaviour near a total collapse failure can be very complex and expensive to
assess. This complexity can be due to the non-linear mechanical behaviour of the structure and
the applied loading and load distribution near failure. The structural behaviour beyond the first
member-failure, depends not only on the degree of static indeterminacy, but also on the ability of
the structure to redistribute the load and the post-failure behaviour, e.g. the ductility of the
individual members and joints.
In addition, the probability of system failure depends on the uncertainty of the load, uncertainty
of the member capacity and the correlation between the uncertain parameters. For a perfectly
balanced structure (i.e. the first member failure has the same probability of occurrence for all
members in a linear analysis, or designed with the same utilisation ratio) the system effects for
overload capacity beyond the first member failure are strictly due to the randomness in the
member capacities. In contrast, in a more realistic unbalanced structure the system effects are
both due to deterministic and probabilistic effects. In an unbalanced structure, the utilisation ratio
is different for the different members, both in the intact and in the potentially damaged states of
the structure. Hence, deterministic system effects are present because the remaining members in
the structure can still carry the load after one or several members have failed. In addition,
randomness in the member capacities gives a probabilistic contribution to the collapse capacity.
A major question is then how important the probabilistic effect is as compared to the
deterministic effect.
Based on results from reliability analyses, the following characteristic features of the ultimate
load capacities for offshore structures are identified:
- The uncertainties in the structural capacity are much less than in the loading.
- Due to highly correlated load effects, the different failure sequences for the members are
highly correlated.
- Offshore structures are usually not balanced, which means that there is one or a few failure
modes which dominate.
A complete reliability analysis of a real multi-leg jacket structure with respect to structural
collapse (overload failure) is very complicated and intractable, and simplifications
(approximations) are required.
Experience based on simulation studies (Dalane (1993), Sigurdsson et al. (1994)), of both
balanced and unbalanced designed jacket structures at water depth about 70 m, has shown that
Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability: Application to Jacket Plattforms Page No. 62
DNV Report No. 95-3203 Discussion of Limit States
Sigurdsson,G; E. Cramer;I. Lotsberg, B.Berge Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability Analysis- Application to Jacket
Platforms, DNV Report 95-3203
the ultimate capacity, or collapse capacity, of the structures can be related directly to the total
base-shear force on the structures. Also the load pattern (e.g. the wave height, the wave period
and the model describing the link between the wave kinematics and the wave forces, i.e. the drag
coefficient, the mass coefficient in Morison equation and marine growth) was shown to have
minor effect on the calculated collapse capacity obtained in the push-over analysis. It is,
however, recommended that the sensitivity of the collapse capacity to the wave height and period
is analysed e.g. by performing push-over analyses applying different load patterns (different
waves). For deeper water, the load pattern will have more effect and the collapse capacity should,
if possible, be related directly to the total over-turning moment rather than to the total base-shear
force. However, this will dependent on the structural details being critical, for the legs it is the
overturning moment that is considered and for the braces it is the shear force.
In reliability assessment of jacket structures, the evaluation is generally load driven, i.e. the
uncertainties in the load modelling are much greater than in the collapse capacity modelling. The
above referred simulation studies of collapse capacity of jackets have shown that the coefficient
of variation
[ ]
CoV L for the annual extreme base shear loading L on the structures are about 0.4,
while the coefficient of variation
[ ]
CoV CC for the base-shear capacity of the structures are about
0.05- 0.10, dependent on the applied CoV for the yield stress. Furthermore the simulations
showed that the CoV for the collapse capacity was much smaller than the uncertainty in the yield
capacity (approximately 50%) and it was shown that the Normal distribution gives an acceptable
fit of the uncertainty distribution of the CC.
Reliability analysis of these structures have shown that the importance of modelling the collapse
capacity as a random variable is insignificant, which indicates that the median or the mean
collapse capacity [ ] E CC can be used with good accuracy. In this analysis, data from the North
Sea were used for estimating the uncertainties in the sea state. The drag coefficient C
D
, the mass
coefficient C
M
and the marine growth Mg were modelled as random variables, which reflects the
uncertainties in prediction of extreme wave/current load condition for a given sea state. In
Sigurdsson et. al. (1994) and van de Graaf et. al (1994) it is shown that for
[ ]
CoV CC <01 . , a
deterministic description of the collapse capacity is suitable for quantification of the probability
of collapse failure.
In the studies referred to above, only intact structures are considered. Similar simulation studies
have been performed for different damage-scenarios of the structures (results not published),
indicating the same results as presented above.
The indication concerning the insignificance of modelling the collapse capacity CC as stochastic,
is, however, based on study of a limited number of structures. More extensive studies on the
importance of modelling the randomness in the collapse capacity, including evaluation of
correlation between the load pattern and the collapse capacity, are needed for making a more
general conclusions in this subject.
4.5.2 Limit State Formulation
By relating the collapse capacity to the total base-shear (or the total over-turning moment) the
collapse capacity, for a given load direction , can be represented by a single random variable
CC , and the annual extreme loading (i.e. the base-shear or the over-turning moment) can be
represented by a single random variable L . The limit state function for the reliability analysis
can then for load direction be expressed as,
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DNV Report No. 95-3203 Discussion of Limit States
Sigurdsson,G; E. Cramer;I. Lotsberg, B.Berge Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability Analysis- Application to Jacket
Platforms, DNV Report 95-3203
( )
g cc l cc l , =
The collapse capacity CC , for a given load direction , can be expressed as
CC X X CC
CC analysis CC model calc
=
where CC
calc
is the calculated capacity, X
CC analysis
is the model uncertainty, introduced in
order to account for the inconsistence in the analysis and X
CC model
is the model uncertainty in
the calculated capacity, which is generally dependent on the geometry of the structure, material
properties, the load pattern and the load direction, and other parameters.
The model uncertainty X
CC model
can in general be assessed by comparing the calculation with
results obtained by experiments or advanced numerical analysis. Usually limited information is
available for quantifying the model uncertainty and the uncertainty it is common to model this
uncertainty by a unconditioned Normal or Log-normal distributed stochastic variable.
The model uncertainty X
CC analysis
can be assessed by considering the results obtained by
different engineers, considering the same structure and identical environmental criteria. It should
be noted that the analysis uncertainty include both the load and the response modelling, but is
included here on the capacity model. The analysis uncertainty is function of the type of analysis
undertaken. In DNV (1995a) Section 6, the analysis uncertainties for different type of analyses of
jack-ups and deep water floaters are outlined, and the CoV varies from about 10%-65%
dependent on the complexity of the analysis. For collapse analysis of jackets, no data have been
found in the literature and the results given in DNV (1995a) Section 6, can not be applied
directly for jacket structures. As an indication, however, a CoV in the order of 10%~20% is
reasonable.
The calculated capacity CC
calc
is inherently stochastic due to uncertainties in material and
geometric properties. As discussed above, the calculated capacity may, however, for most
practical purposes be assumed deterministic. The functional relation of the CC
calc
and the
wave/current profile applied for load calculation in the push-over analysis must be considered for
each case.
The annual extreme base-shear loading acting of the structure, L , can be expressed as;
L X L L X L
L jack jack wind L deck deck
= + +
L
jack
is the calculated hydrodynamic loading with associated model uncertainty X
L jack
.
L
wind
is the wind loading. L
deck
is the calculated hydrodynamic loading on the deck structure
with associated model uncertainty X
L deck
, only applicable when the wave hit the deck.
L
jack
and L
deck
are stochastic due to randomness (aleatory uncertainties) in the sea state for
given load direction , i.e. the wave height, the wave period, current speed and uncertainties
(epistemic) in the hydrodynamic parameters applied in the load calculations.
The model uncertainties X
L jack
and X
L deck
are introduced to account for uncertainties in
the applied models for hydrodynamic loading for a given environmental condition, which can in
general be assessed by comparison with results obtained by experiments or advanced numerical
Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability: Application to Jacket Plattforms Page No. 64
DNV Report No. 95-3203 Discussion of Limit States
Sigurdsson,G; E. Cramer;I. Lotsberg, B.Berge Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability Analysis- Application to Jacket
Platforms, DNV Report 95-3203
analyses. Modelling of these uncertainties are highly dependent on the theoretical models and the
uncertainty level included in L
jack
and L
deck
.
A number of studies are available concerning the load prediction accuracy for given wave
condition, e.g. Haring et. al. (1979), Nerzic and Lebas (1988), Heideman and Weaver (1992),
Elzinga and Tromans (1992). The results from these studies vary significantly, both in bias and
scatter, e.g. the CoV varies in the range of 10%-35%. The predictions are based on different
wave theories with different choices of hydrodynamic coefficients, and some studies do not
account for possible current loading. The main conclusion that can be drawn is, however, that
considerable uncertainty seems to be related to the load prediction.
In Nerzic and Lebas (1988), it has been demonstrated that the uncertainty in load prediction is
not independent of the calculated loading (the CoV decrease with increasing wave height).
Haver (1995) presents a review and a discussion of some available information about
uncertainties in load and response estimates for jackets. The main conclusion is that uncertainties
in the hydrodynamic forces are completely governed by the inherent randomness (aleatory
uncertainties) of the annual largest wave. It is therefore crucial that this quantity is properly
modelled. Concerning uncertainties being more of an epistemic nature, priority should be given
to reduce the uncertainties related to the description of the wave conditions. Thereafter
uncertainties related to the load calculation procedure could be attacked. In the study by Haver
(1995), the model uncertainties are assumed to be unbiased and the impacts of possible bias is
not considered in the evaluation.
In Puskar et.al. (1994), a comparison of the calculated and observed platform damage during the
hurricane Andrew in the Gulf of Mexico on August 24th-26th. 1992 is performed. The calculated
and the true ratio of capacity to load are compared, i.e. the model uncertainties in the capacity
X
CC model
and the jacket loading X
L jack
are represented by a single bias factor. The conclusions
from this study, based on an evaluation of 13 platforms, indicated a bias factor with mean value
in the range of 1.1 - 1.2 and CoV of 0.1.
It should be noted that the model uncertainty depends on the procedures applied for calculating
the wave force and the ultimate capacity, and the platform design. The platforms studied by
Puskar et al. (1994) had failure mechanisms associated primarily with K-joints and the
foundation (pile hinging and pile plunging), and the results may differ for platforms with other
failure modes.
The failure probability of the structure may be derived by considering a failure in each specified
wave direction (
i dir
i N , =1 ) as a separate failure event with failure mode
{ }
L CC
i
i
. The
annual system failure probability may be obtained by calculating the union of all the failure
events, i.e. a series system, given by
{ } { }
{ }
P P L CC L CC L CC
f
annual
N
dir
N
dir
1
1
2
2
7 77
As discussed above, the uncertainties in the environmental prediction usually dominating in the
reliability analysis. When the difference between the considered environmental directions are
considerable, say 45
o
or more, the uncertainties for the different directions can be assumed un-
correlated. For small failure probabilities the total failure probability may be approximated as the
sum of the individual failure probabilities for each wave directions,
Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability: Application to Jacket Plattforms Page No. 65
DNV Report No. 95-3203 Discussion of Limit States
Sigurdsson,G; E. Cramer;I. Lotsberg, B.Berge Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability Analysis- Application to Jacket
Platforms, DNV Report 95-3203
P P P
f f i i
i N
annual annual
dir
=
( | ) ( )
,
1
where ( ) P is the probability of the load direction and P
f
annual
is the conditional annual
probability of collapse failure given the load direction , which is obtained by
{ }
[ ]
( )
( )
P P L CC F f d
F f d
f L CC
CC L
annual
= =
=
1
( )
( )
x x x
x x x
X
X
where X is vector of the stochastic variables going into the reliability model, ( ) F
L
and
( ) F
CC
are the conditional cumulative annual probability distributions of the load and the
collapse capacity given the load direction , respectively, and ( ) f
L
and ( ) f
CC
are the
corresponding probability density functions.
For a small P
f
annual
, the total system failure probability P
f
over a given time n
life
(years) can be
estimated as,
P n P
f life f
annual
An overview over a procedure for probability analysis of structural collapse is shown in Figure
4.11.
Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability: Application to Jacket Plattforms Page No. 66
DNV Report No. 95-3203 Discussion of Limit States
Sigurdsson,G; E. Cramer;I. Lotsberg, B.Berge Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability Analysis- Application to Jacket
Platforms, DNV Report 95-3203
PROBAN
Structural
Data
Joint Environmental
Model (H
S
,T
P
,Cur,...)
Uncertainties
(H,T,Cd,Mg,Y,...)
Non-Linear
Push-over Analysis
(E.G.: USFOS)
Hydrodynamic
Loading
(E.G.: WAJAC)
Results :
P
F
Sensitivities
Limit State
Capacity - Load
Only one call for each
wave direction, when the
Collapse Capacity is
modeled as deterministic
Figure 4.11 Probability analysis of structural collapse - Overview
Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability: Application to Jacket Plattforms Page No. 67
DNV Report No. 95-3203 Discussion of Limit States
Sigurdsson,G; E. Cramer;I. Lotsberg, B.Berge Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability Analysis- Application to Jacket
Platforms, DNV Report 95-3203
4.5.3 Distribution of the Annual Maximum Loading (Base-Shear)
In order to establish the probability distribution of the annual maximum base-shear load F
L
acting on a given structure, a proper description of the environmental situation is needed.
Quantities to be determined are the long term variations of sea state characteristics, the short term
description of the environmental condition (wave, current, wind etc.) within a given sea state,
and the load model for the base shear loading.
The joint environmental model described in DNV (1995a) Section 5 is recommended for the
long term modelling of the environmental conditions. In the following a brief description of this
model is presented.
The following environmental parameters are included:
1-hour mean wind speed, U
w
specified wind and main wave directions, (assumed to be identical)
current speed (collinear with wind and waves), V
c
significant wave height, H
s
characteristic spectral period, e.g. the spectral peak period T
p
or the mean zero crossing
period T
z
sea water level, D
The long term description of the environmental conditions is thus given by the joint probability
density function
( ) ( ) ( ) f h t v u d f h t v u d f
H T V U D s z c w H T V U D s z c w
s z c w s z c w
, , , , , , , , , =
The direction variable is conveniently divided into a defined number N
dir
of sectors and is
described by the corresponding probability mass function ( ) p i N
i dir
, , , =1 . Furthermore, the
description for each sector is establish by factorising the joint distribution as follows,
( )
f h t v u d
H T V U D s z c w
s z c w
, , , , =
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
f t h f v h f u h f d h f h
T H z s V H c s U H w s D H s H s
z s c s w s s s
, , , ,
i.e., given H
s
and , the random variables T
z
, V
c
, U
w
and D are assumed to be mutually
independent.
There is no theoretical preference when it comes to deciding on probabilistic models for the
various conditional density functions. The respective choices have therefore been based on an
empirical basis. In DNV (1995a) a discussion of these probabilistic models is given.
The annual largest loading is assumed to occur when the largest wave (or wave crest) in the
largest annual storm, i.e. annual largest H
s
, passes the structure. Under a Poissonian assumption
for rare events, the distribution of the annual largest significant wave height, H
s max ,
, for a
Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability: Application to Jacket Plattforms Page No. 68
DNV Report No. 95-3203 Discussion of Limit States
Sigurdsson,G; E. Cramer;I. Lotsberg, B.Berge Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability Analysis- Application to Jacket
Platforms, DNV Report 95-3203
given load direction , may be derived from the long term distribution of the arbitrary significant
wave heights as,
( ) ( )
[ ]
F h F h
H s H s
N
s s
storm
, max
=
where N
storm
is the number of annual storms.
However, in the load calculation the distribution of the largest wave height or crest height, and
the corresponding wave period are needed. Different models can be found in the literature, for
predicting the wave height distribution for a stationary sea state, see e.g. Haring (1976), Forristall
(1978), Nss (1983), Krogstad (1985), Vinje (1988).
Knowing the conditioned wave height distribution,
( )
F h h
H H
s
s
, , the distribution of the
largest wave height out of N
wave
wave cycles, H h
s max
, , may be obtained as,
( ) ( )
[ ]
F h h F h h
H H
s
H H
s
N
s s
wave
max
, ,
=
The number of waves N
wave
in a sea state is in general a stochastic variable conditioned on the
significant wave height and can be obtained as.
N
T h
wave
z s
=
where is the duration of the storm (e.g. 6 hours or 21600 sec.) and T h
z s
is the mean zero
crossing period conditioned on the significant wave height.
Forristall (1978) and Krogstad (1985) propose Weibull distribution for the wave heights of a
stationary sea state i.e.
( )
F h h
h
h
H H
s
s
s
, exp
=
|
\
|
|
1
where = 213 . and =2 26 . (Krogstad (1985) propose =2 28 . ). For this case the distribution of
the largest wave height in the largest storm may be obtained as,
( )
F h h N
h
h
H H
s wave
s
s max , max
, max
, max
, exp exp
=
|
\
|
|
1
]
1
1
1
Concerning wave-deck impact loads, the crest height of the waves becomes an important
parameter. In this case it appears that the crest height should be selected as the primary wave
characteristic rather than the wave height. Haver (1995) discusses this problem and points out
that applicable models are available also for predicting non-Gaussian crest heights. However, at
the present some difficulties arise when the non-Gaussian crest height are associated with a
proper wave profile. Fitting a Stokes 5th order wave to this crest leads to considerable
overestimation of the wave height, e.g. for North Sea location, the 100-years wave height
becomes nearly 2m higher than the 100-years wave height obtained directly from the wave height
statistics.
Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability: Application to Jacket Plattforms Page No. 69
DNV Report No. 95-3203 Discussion of Limit States
Sigurdsson,G; E. Cramer;I. Lotsberg, B.Berge Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability Analysis- Application to Jacket
Platforms, DNV Report 95-3203
It is therefore recommended to apply the wave height as a primary wave characteristic and
combine this with a 5th order Stokian wave profile. The corresponding wave period may be
obtained as,
T
T
T
T
T
H
p
z
p
z
max
.
=
09
or
1.2
when isappliedasa characteristic spectral period
when isapplied asa characteristic spectral period
Knowing the long term joint distribution of the environmental conditions, the conditional wave
height distribution and the uncertainties in the load calculation procedures (either global model
uncertainty parameters or uncertainties in the basic parameters as the hydrodynamic parameters
etc.), the annual largest long term wave load distribution can be establish by combining a general
probability analysis program (e.g. SESAM:PROBAN, DNV (1993a)) and a wave/current loading
program (e.g. SESAM:WAJAC, DNV (1992a)).
An alternative and much more efficient reliability procedure is to establish, once and for all, a
response surface defining the total base-shear loading for each load direction as function of
characteristic parameters. The response surface gives a functional relationship between the total
base-shear and a set of defined variables. E.g., a 6-dimensional response surfaces could be
defined as a function of h
max
(5th order Stokes wave), t
H
max
, v
c
, c
D
, c
M
and the thickness of
the marine growth M
g
. The response surface is linked to the PROBAN application in order to
calculate the total base-shear loading for a given outcome of the stochastic variables.
Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability: Application to Jacket Plattforms Page No. 70
DNV Report No. 95-3203 Summary of Application Examples
Sigurdsson,G; E. Cramer;I. Lotsberg, B.Berge Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability Analysis- Application to Jacket
Platforms, DNV Report 95-3203
5. SUMMARY OF APPLICATION EXAMPLES
5.1 Summary of Fatigue Failure Limit State - FLS Example
5.1.1 Modelling Approach
As discussed in Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability Analysis - General (DNV 1995a), a
probabilistic fatigue analysis may be divided into the following four steps:
1. Probabilistic modelling of the environment (short-term and long-term modelling)
2. Probabilistic modelling of the wave loading
3. Stochastic assessment of the structural response (global and local)
4. Stochastic assessment of the fatigue damage accumulation.
In addition to the above steps, a stochastic modelling of the fatigue capacity is required. The
probability against fatigue failure is obtained through a probabilistic evaluation of the likelihood
of the event that the accumulated fatigue damage exceeds the defined critical fatigue capacity.
In order to carry out a realistic fatigue evaluation of a jackets structure, it is necessary to
introduce some simplifying assumptions in the modelling. These assumptions consist of;
For a short term period (a few hours) the sea surface can be considered as a realisation of a
zero-mean stationary Gaussian process. The sea surface elevation is (completely)
characterised by the frequency spectrum, which for a given direction of wave propagation, can
be described by two parameters, the significant wave height H
S
and some characteristic
period like the spectral peak period T
P
or the mean zero-mean up-crossing period T
Z
.
The long term probability distribution of the sea state parameters ( H T
S P
or H T
S Z
diagram) is known.
A frequency domain analysis is adequate. Applying a frequency domain approach for
assessing the structural response, the wave loading on structural members must be linearised
and the structural stress response must be assumed to be a linear function of the loading, i.e.
the structural and material models are assumed linear.
The relationship between the sectional forces and the local hot-spot stresses (SCFs) is known.
For this purpose, an empirical parametric description is most common.
The influence and consequence of the following modelling aspects are discussed in the
application example;
The effect of applying different wave spectra, i.e. PM and JONSWAP spectra.
Influence of wave spreading on the estimated fatigue capacity.
The effect of the linearisation of the wave loading. This can for some structures be of
significance. A study investigating the influence of performing the linearisation at different
sea-states is carried out. This study is based on a stochastic linearisation techniques for three
different sea states.
Two different parametric equations for calculation the SCFs are compared.
Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability: Application to Jacket Plattforms Page No. 71
DNV Report No. 95-3203 Summary of Application Examples
Sigurdsson,G; E. Cramer;I. Lotsberg, B.Berge Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability Analysis- Application to Jacket
Platforms, DNV Report 95-3203
The long-term stress range distribution is defined through a calibrated Weibull distribution.
In order to account for the outcome of the structural inspections in the estimation of the fatigue
reliability of the structure, the fatigue capacity needs to be evaluated applying the Fracture
Mechanics (FM) fatigue approach. A procedure for calibrating the FM-fatigue model to the SN-
fatigue model is further presented in the application example.
5.1.2 Discussion of Results
The selected North Sea jacket structure that is analysed for the FLS study is an existing North
Sea structure located at 107 m water depth. The choice of this particular structure is motivated
from the degree of structural redundancy, believed to be a typical characteristic for North Sea
jackets.
In order to identify the most fatigue sensitive structural elements, a frequency domain SN-fatigue
analysis (stochastic fatigue analysis) is performed.
The fatigue lives for the different members in one of the most critical joints in the jacket
structure, joint 589, is considered for the comparison analysis, see Table 5.2.
Table 5.2. Selected joint with associated members to be evaluated for the fatigue life
comparison analysis of the North Sea jacket structure.
Joint Number 589
Member Number 123 152 372 373 401 402
Member diameter (m)
Chord
Brace
3.50
0.90
3.50
1.00
3.50
1.40
3.50
1.40
3.50
1.10
3.50
1.30
Member thick. (mm)
Chord
Brace
65.0
25.0
65.0
45.0
65.0
40.0
65.0
45.0
65.0
30.0
65.0
60.0
Joint type KTT YT KTK KTK KTK KTK
The base case for the fatigue analysis is the use of the transfer functions obtained applying a
dynamic analysis, the parametric equations proposed by Efthyminu for deriving the SCFs, the
PM sea spectrum, and the assumption of long crested (uni-directional) sea.
The fatigue results obtained from the base case are compared with results from equivalent fatigue
analyses where different common modelling alternatives are considered. The following
variations are compared; the use of a quasi-static approach for deriving the transfer functions, the
use of Kuang's model for deriving the SCFs, the use of a JONSWAP sea spectrum, and the
influence of modelling different degrees of short crested sea.
Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability: Application to Jacket Plattforms Page No. 72
DNV Report No. 95-3203 Summary of Application Examples
Sigurdsson,G; E. Cramer;I. Lotsberg, B.Berge Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability Analysis- Application to Jacket
Platforms, DNV Report 95-3203
The quasi-static and dynamic transfer functions as well as the SCFs are calculated using
SESAM.
Based on the results from the analysis, the following conclusions are made:
The study shows that insignificant differences in the calculated fatigue lives are obtained for
different selections of linearisation sea state, indicating that the loading on the considered
North Sea structure is dominated by linear inertia forces.
The approximation of assuming narrow banded stress response is acceptable.
A dynamic and a quasi-static approach for deriving the transfer functions are compared. It is
observed that applying a quasi-static approach, longer derived fatigue lives are obtained than
for the dynamic approach (by a factor 1.3-4.0).
The fatigue lives obtained applying the Efthyminu empirical model and the Kuang model for
deriving the SCFs are compared. Longer fatigue lives are obtained applying the Kuang model
(by a factor of 2.0-7.0).
The fatigue lives obtained applying the Pierson-Moskowitz wave spectrum and the
JONSWAP wave spectrum are compared. Only a minor increase in the estimated fatigue lives
are observed using the JONSWAP wave spectrum compared to the PM spectrum.
It is further observed that the estimated fatigue lives are increasing with the level of wave
spreading, but only to a minor degree.
Based on the obtained stress range distribution within each sea state, a long term stress range
distribution is established and approximated to a Weibull distribution. The obtained fatigue
results applying the calibrated long term Weibull distribution for describing the stress ranges
matched the original obtained fatigue results over the service life.
For the probabilistic fatigue analysis using the SN-approach, large influence of the uncertainty
associated with the modelling of the SN-curve capacity and the modelling of the SCF factors
are identified.
In order to carry out probabilistic inspection updating, it is necessary to express the fatigue
reliability of the joints through a FM-approach. The example application study shows that it is
possible to give a good description of the fatigue reliability obtained from the SN-fatigue
approach applying the FM-fatigue approach when the crack initiation time is assumed to be
small.
The probabilistic evaluation applying the FM-approach shows that the uncertainty associated
with the modelling of the local SCFs, the geometry function and the material parameter C in
the FM model have a large influence on the uncertainty modelling.
For probabilistic inspection updating, the inspection accuracy of the last inspection has a large
influence on the estimated updated reliability level.
5.2 Summary of Total Collapse Limit State - ULS Example
5.2.1 Modelling Approach
In reliability analyses of jacket structures for structural collapse (ULS), the uncertainties
associated with the determination of the hydrodynamic loading are generally much greater than
Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability: Application to Jacket Plattforms Page No. 73
DNV Report No. 95-3203 Summary of Application Examples
Sigurdsson,G; E. Cramer;I. Lotsberg, B.Berge Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability Analysis- Application to Jacket
Platforms, DNV Report 95-3203
for the estimation of the collapse capacity. As the problem formulation is load driven, a proper
modelling of the hydrodynamic loading is therefore important.
The limit state function applied in the reliability analysis, is expressed as,
( )
g cc l cc l , =
where CC is the jacket collapse capacity measured as the total base-shear capacity of the
structure and L is the annual extreme base-shear loading, for a given load direction .
In the example application, the jacket collapse capacity is derived by performing a non-linear
push-over analysis with the computer program USFOS (USFOS (1996)). The hydrodynamic
loads on the jacket are calculated by WAJAC (DNV (1992a)).
Modelling and physical uncertainties have been accounted for both in the capacity modelling and
in the environmental description and hydrodynamic loading. See the Example Application report
(DNV 1995b) for a more detailed description of the uncertainty modelling.
5.2.2 Discussion of Results
The selected North Sea jacket structure that is analysed for the ULS study is the same as for the
FLS study, being an existing North Sea structure located at 107 m water depth.
The study shows that the uncertainty in the ultimate capacity model contributes to less than 15%
of the total uncertainty, and that the major portion of the total uncertainty is associated with the
environmental load description (~80%), where the inherent uncertainty in the wave height is the
dominating parameter in the reliability analysis.
At design point, the wind loading contributes to less than 2% of the total loading and may for
probabilistic analyses of jacket structures be considered as deterministic. For the hydrodynamic
loading, the wave loading contributed with about 75%, and the current loading with the
remaining 25%.
A parameter study is carried out in order to investigate different modelling approaches on the
estimated failure probability for total collapse. The results of the parameter study can be
summarised as follows:
CASE-1: Effect of uncertainties on T
z
and V
c
Only the NW load direction is considered in the study. For given outcome of H
s
,
the T
z
and V
c
are modelled as deterministic.
Results : For given outcome of H
s
, the T
z
and the V
c
can be modelled as
deterministic.
CASE-2: Effect of the model uncertainty in the calculated hydrodynamic loading X
L jack
.
Variations in the mean value of X
L jack
in the range of 0.9-1.1 and the CoV in the
range of 0.0-0.4 are studied, considering both a Normal distribution and a Log-
Normal distribution.
Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability: Application to Jacket Plattforms Page No. 74
DNV Report No. 95-3203 Summary of Application Examples
Sigurdsson,G; E. Cramer;I. Lotsberg, B.Berge Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability Analysis- Application to Jacket
Platforms, DNV Report 95-3203
Result: The choice of distribution for X
L jack
is not significant. It is also shown
that a 10% change in the mean value (bias) changes the failure
probability by approximately a factor of two.
CASE-3: Effect of model uncertainty in the calculated collapse capacity X
CC model
.
Variation in the mean value of X
CC model
in range of 0.9-1.1 and the CoV in the
range of 0.0-0.4 are studied, where X
CC model
is modelled as Normal distributed.
Results: For CoV < 0.2, the effect of model uncertainty in the calculated collapse
capacity for the failure probability is similar as for X
L jack
, but for larger
CoV ( > 0.2) the estimated failure probability increases dramatically.
CASE-4: Effect of ignoring the relationship between the capacity and the wave height and
period.
The calculated collapse capacity is obtained by applying a 100 years wave condition
and the median value of the wave period.
Results : The 100 years wave condition can be applied in the push-over analysis in
order to obtain the calculated collapse capacity, and the relationship
between the capacity and the wave height and period can be omitted.
CASE-5: Effect of ignoring the model uncertainties X
L jack
and X
CC model
in the reliability
modelling.
Results : Ignoring the model uncertainties in the reliability model will lead to
underestimation of the failure probability by a factor of approximately
seven.
It should be noted that the results presented in the case studies above are in general only valid for
the current example, but it is expected that the results will be similar also for other North Sea
jackets.
Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability: Application to Jacket Plattforms Page No. 75
DNV Report No. 95-3203 References
Sigurdsson,G; E. Cramer;I. Lotsberg, B.Berge Guideline for Offshore Structural Reliability Analysis- Application to Jacket
Platforms, DNV Report 95-3203
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Platforms, DNV Report 95-3203
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