Estimation :

1.7:
)
(
-
....
) ( )
( )
(.


.

.


Range
) ( - .
) (

. :
6 - 6,40 + 40 : 34 :
46
- )(46 ,34


...
.


.
" " Confidence intervals

119

Confidence Levels

%95 % 99
0.95 0.99...
46 34
% 95
95
) .(%95

2.7
) (:

) (


. ) (
:
=

:

= X 1x

X
+
-
% 68.26
% 68.26
%95.44
% 95.44 :

= X 2x

99.72
% %99.72
:

= X 3x

. :
-1 "
1 2 3

120

%68.26 %95.44
% 99.72 "
" . .
-2
1 2 3 ) (Z

) ( ) 2
(
)
( Z
.
-3 )
( - -
2 Z.
-4 : ) (
:

= X Z

Z .
.

=XZ
n

:
. X

- )

( . Z n
-


.

121

-5 ) (
) 99% 95% ((

68.26%

90%

1.65

95 %

1.96

95.44%

99%

2.58

99.72%

-6 -
S

:

S
=X Z
n

:
:

.

.

100
90 25

%95
:
:

S
=X Z
n

:
n = 100

122

S = 25
% 95 Z = 1.96 :
.
% 95 :
X = 90

25
= 90 1.96
100
)= 90 1.96(2.5
= 90 4.9

85.1
=
94.9

85.1 94.9 95
.%

3.7 ) (:



...


.

P
P
:
- . P
- :

) = P(1 P
n

123

- Z

) (
)
( . :
) P (1 P
n

. = Z

)( P

.
:
) P (1 P
n

P = P Z

:
) : (2 144
60

.% 95

:
-1 P
)
( :
60
= P
= 0.42
144

% 95
Z = 196 :
:
) P (1 P
n

P = P z

=0.42
=1 0.42 =0.58 P
1
Z = 1.96
n = 144

124

0.42 0.58
144

P = 0.42 1.96

= 0.42 0.08

0.34

0.50
, 0.50
0.34 % 95
% 50

% 95 .% 5

4.7 :



.

:

= X Z.

:
:

Z 2 2
e2

=n

Z ) (
.
} { 2 ) (.
e


" ".

:

125

):(3

= 15

5
% 99
:
:
% 99 Z = 2.58 :
5 e = 5 :
= 15 :
:
Z 2 . 2
= 59.9 = 60
( e) 2

=n

60

)(2.58) (15
2

=n

60


.% 99

5.7 :


e :
) Z 2 .P (1 P
e2

=n

:
Z ) (
.

126

P ) (.
P - 1 . % 60
% 40
e " . ".

z
:
) : (4


%2

% 50
.% 95
:
% 95 Z = 1.96 :

P= 0.5

P - 1 :
P = 1 - 0.5 = 0.5 -1
:
e = 0.02

:
) Z 2 .P(1 P
e2

=n

:
)(1.96) 2 (0.5)(0.5
(0.02) 2
0.9604
0.0004

=n

= n

n = 2401

2401 .
.

127

6.7 t : t - Distribution

)(
.
) (30

" " t
) 30 (


.
" " t
" ".
t


n t z t
DEGREES OF FREEDOM
)(.

7.7 :


.
3 10
)
(2 ) (3 ) (5
) (2 = 2
1 - 3 :
n-1

n ) (3
) (1
= 10 k
n - k
.t

128

t :
.
-1

) (.

-2

-3

) 30(.

8.7
:

:
S
n

= X t , n1
2

:
(1 Level of Significance

. % 99
% 99
.%1
) (t
.2
(2 .n - 1
n 1

.S
) : (5
10
X = 72 S= 6.4

% 95
:
129

: ) 10 (

t
n = 10 :
n -1 = 10 - 1 = 9

1 = 0.95
= 0.05 :
0.05
= 0.025
2

) (II 9
) ( 0.025 :
t 0.025,9 = 2.262

:
S
n
6.4
10

= X t

= 72 2.262

14.48
3.16

= 72

= 72 4.6

67.4
=
76.6

67.4
76.6 . .% 95

130