7

(Marketing Information System)

(Marketing Information System: MIS)

(Marketing Information System: MIS)

(Piercy and Evans, 1999)
(marketing as information function)
(Product, Price,
Place, Promotion, Information Processing: 5Ps) (Interface)




(Piercy and Evans, 1999)
(Fletcher, 1999) (Database marketing)



(1999)

213

(Marketing Information System: MIS)

MIS



4
(Piercy and Evans, 1999)
4 1)
2) -
(Decision Support System: DSS)
3) 4)
()

, ,

7-1
(Perreault and McCarthy, 2000: 157)
(Daniel et al., 2003)
4 (Operational executive information
system: EIS)

214

(Enterprise
resource planning: ERP) (Customer Relationship Management: CRM)
(Kotler, 1997 : 111) 4
(internal company records)
(Marketing intelligence) (Marketing research)
( 7.2)

1.

2.

4.

3.

7.2
(Kotler, 1997: 111)

215

1.
(
)
( )

2.

(Olsen and Sallis, 2006, 466-484)


(Yahoo) (Infoseek) 3,000
(Datastar) (UM1 Proquest) (Dun
& Bradstreet) (Dow Jones News) (Wall Street Journal)

3. (Marketing Research)

(A
Marketing Intelligence System)

(GM) (WalMart_ (P&G) (McDonald)

216

(Input Information)

3.1
5
(Define the problem) (Develop research plan)
(Collecting Data) (Data analysis) (Webb,
1999: 154-177)

7-3
(Perreault & McCarthy, 2000: 160)

217

3.1.1 (Define the problem)


? ?
?


(4Ps) (Market
segments)
(Research Problem)

(Kinnear and Taylor, 1987: 92)

7-4
(Symptom)

218

(4 Ps)

(Symptom)

7-4
(Kinnear and Taylor, 1987: 92)
(Research Purpose)
2 1)
2)

(Strength and Weakness)
?
1. ?
?

219

?
?
?
(Collecting Secondary Data)

2
(Secondary data) (Primary data) ( 7.5)


2

(Objective)

25 25

220

(subjective)

-
-

7.5
(Kerin et al., 2003: 213)

221

80 100

(Develop research plan primary Data)

1.
(Malhotra, 1996: 87) 2
(Exploratory research) (Conclusive research)
7-6

7-6
(Malhotra, 1996: 87)

(True panel)

Omnibus panel

222

3
(Exploratory) (Description) (Causal)
2. (Contact method)

(Computer interview)
.

.
.

3 4
.

. (computer interview)


3.
2

3.1 (Probability Sampling)
2

/

223

(Confidence interval)
(inference) (sample)
(Simple Random Sampling)
(Systematic sampling) (Stratified sampling)
(Cluster Sampling)

7.7
( , 2546: 262)
. (SRS : Simple Random Sampling)
/ (Equal
chance) SRS
1 N () N
( 1 1) 100,000
(N) 300 (n)
100,000 300 (n)
(Random Table)

224

. (Systematic Sampling)
(Starting point) n th
60 = 3,600
21th 1 60 [3,600/60 = 60]
8 1, 141, 201 3,561 60

SRS

. (Stratified sampling)

(Subpopulation) 2
(A classification variable)
(A sampling variable)
3.2 (Non- Probability Sampling)

3
. (Purposive Sampling)

225

. (Convenience or Accidental
Sampling )





6
40


38 40

Q-sort

7-8
(Malhotra, 1996: 276)

226

(Quota sampling)


20




4. (Research Instrument)
(Questionnaire)
(Mechanical devices)

(Scale) (1996: 276-282) 2
(Comparative
scales)

(Noncomparative scales) 7.8

(Close- and open-end questions)

( 7.1)
5. (Data analysis)

n n
2

227

7-1

(Dichotomous)

(Multiple choice)

(Likert scale)

(Semantic differential)

(Importance scale)

(Rating scale)

(Intention-to-buy scale)

(Completely unstructured)

(Word association)

(Sentence Complete)

2
_______________________
______________________

________________
________________
________________

_______

228

7-1 ()

(Story complete)

(Picture Complete)

(Completely unstructured)

(Kotler, 1994: 138-139)

(t-test) (z-test)
1 2 2
(ANOVA) (Chi
square) (Kolmogorov-Smirnov: K-S) (RUNS)
2 rank sum ,
(Kruskal-Wallis ANOVA)
2 (sign test Wilcoxo test McNemar)
(Cochran
Q-test) (
nonparametric)

229

7.2

ANOV
A

TimeSeries
Stocha
stic

Conjoin Regres
t/
s./
MDS
WLS/S
UR

GLS/2S SEM.
LS.
3SLS/N
L.

2
5
3
0
4
0
2
1
1
1

30
11
0
0
11
1
2
2
1
1

1
3
2
0
2
2
1
1
0
0

1
2
0
0
0
6
0
1
0
0

5
4
2
4
5
1
5
1
5
5

3
0
2
1
2
0
0
1
0
1

12

10

37

10

19
59
(Malhotra et al (1999)

Logit/
Prob.
Tobit

Theory/ Cluster Descri

Conce /
p.
pt
Discrim
.

NBD/B
BD
DMC

Bayes

Latent
Class

MC

Simulat
.

6
0
0
8
5
9
3
2
6
0

3
16
3
2
5
2
6
1
2
0

2
0
0
0
1
0
4
1
3
3

0
2
1
0
3
0
0
0
0
0

0
4
0
1
3
0
0
1
1
1

0
2
1
0
0
2
1
0
0
0

0
4
0
0
2
0
1
0
0
2

0
0
1
0
0
1
1
0
0
0

1
1
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0

54
54
15
16
44
25
26
12
19
14

39

40

14

11

279

230

(Malhotra et al, 1999)

(Journal of Marketing Research) .. 1987-1997
( 7.2)
(ANOVA) (Multimonial Logit)
(SEM)

,
( 3 ) ()
()
3 3
( )

4 () ()

6. (Discussion and implication)

(Quantitative tools used in Marketing Decision Support System: DSS)

(MIS)
(MIS) MIS
(Ill-structured problem)

231

( 7-9)
3
(Optimization routines)

y
y
y

y
y
y

7-9
(Kotler, 1994: 146)

(Canonical Correlation)
( Markovprocess model) (Queuing model)
(Sales-response models)

232

(Marketing
Information System, Decision Support System )
3

(Talvinen, 1995)
1.

(Transaction processing systems) TPS
(Management information systems) MIS

2.
(Operational Marketing information
systems)

3.
(DSS)
/ (EIS/ESS)

(MkIS) 2
(Management MkIS)
(operational MkIS) 6
(Marketing intelligence systems)
(MDSS) (Marketing
planning systems) (Marketing control systems
(Marketing report systems)

233

7-3
MkIS

( Management MkIS)

(

)

(MDSS)

(operational MkIS)


(Marketing

and sales productivity and

support systems)

(Talvinen, 1995)
(Transaction processing systems: TPS)

234

(Inter-Organizational System)
(Management information systems)


.
(EIS/ESS)
.
(MDSS)
. (MIS)
.
(TPS)
.
( Marketing and sales productivity and support systems)(TPS)
(Marketing Information System: MIS)

(Forecasting and demand measurement)

2
(Market demand)

1. (Measures of market demand)

7-10 80
4 (
) 4 (
) 5 ( )

235

(Vocabulary for demand measurement)

(Guiltinan, 1997: 106) 3

. (Market potential) (
)
. (forecasts)
.. 2545
102.81 58.29%
34.98% 2
.. 2545
60.34% (, 11-9-2003)
. (Quota)

7.10 80 (5 44)
(McDonald, 2002: 456)

236

7-4
7.4

7.11

(Primary demand)
(Selective demand gap)

7-11
(Kotler, 2003: 146)
2

237

7-12

(Operational level)
(Management level)
(Strategic level)
( 7-12)









(The market analysis)

238

(qualitative market analysis)

(Potential market)


(Total market analysis) (Total potential
demand)

3
. (Market potential)

. (Market share)

. (Sales forecasting)
()

(Marketarea analysis)

239

1. (Qualitative method)


. (executive opinion)
( judgmental methods )




. (executive group judgment)

(Dalrymple, 1999) (A jury of

expectation opinion)

2
(1)

240

(Delphi) (Scenario
Planning)
(Scenario Planning)

4
(Schoemaker, 1992: 67-81)
1. (time frame and scope of
analysis)
2.
3. (Key uncertainties)
4.
(Key uncertainties)

(2) (product managers)

. (method of sales force

composite forecasting)

241

(underestimate)

1)

2)

3)

242

(judgmental method)

(Quantitative methods)
1. (Probability sample surveys)

7-5

(N)
(10%) (n)

5 99
1830
183
915
100 299
610
61
732
250
25
750
300
2690
269

(x)
5
12
30

x

2690
599 1830

243

100299 610 300

250 10% 7-5

Nx
N

x =

1830 (5 ) + 610 (12 ) + 250 (30

1830 + 610 + 250

= 8.91

2690 (8.91) = 23,960

s x s x
(standard deviation of the sample data) S
7-6

n
183
61
25

5
12
30

(x x )

(x x ) n

(5 8.91)2
(12 8.91)2
(30 8.91)2

15.28 183
9.54 61
444.78 25
14478.68

269

x x
n 1
14497 . 68
269 1

= 7 . 33

s
=

n
N

269

2690

s
n

7.33
269

= 0.42

244

0.42
(Confidence level) 3

x 2.58s x
99%
95%
x 1.96 s x
x 1.64 s x
90%
95%
95%

8.91 1.96(0.42) = 8.91 0.82
2,690(8.91 0.82) = 2,690(8.09 9.73) 21762 26173

2. (Time-series method)

(exponential smoothing)
. (Time series analysis)



4 (Trend: T)
(Cycle: C) (Seasonal: S) (Irregular: I) 4
7-13 4

= T + C + S + I

245

7.13
( , 2520: 296)

T S C I C

I



(T) (S)

.
(Trend)

246

Yt = a + bx

Yt
X
Yt T
7.7

2511
2512
2513
2514
2515
2516
2517

(Y)
14
13
18
22
21
25
27
140

X
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3

XY
-42
-26
-18
0
21
50
81
66

X2
9
4
1
0
1
4
9
28

a b
(least squares method) a b

247

a
b

=
=

N
XY
2

7
7-7
a =
b

Y
N

XY
x

140
= 20
7
=

66
28

2 . 35

Y t = 20 + 2 . 35 X

Yt ()
X 1
0

2518 4
=
20 + 2.35(4)
Yt
=
20 + 9.40
=
29.40




(T x S)
2
Yt = a + bx
Y X

248

1. Yt 12 a b
2. X 12 b
3. (origin)
Yt = a + bx

Y

1 b
a + X
12 12

Y
Y

= 20 + 2 . 35 X

1
2 . 35
( 20 +
X ) = 1 . 67 + 0 . 016 X
12
12

15
Y

= (1 . 67 + 0 . 016 x

1
) + 0 . 016 X = 1 . 678 + 0 . 016 X
2

Y t = 1 . 678

+ 0 . 16 X

Yt ()
X 1
15 2514
.
(Seasonal variation)

249

(ratioto-moving average) 4
1. 12
2.
3. 2
4. 3

7.8 7.9
7.8 12

12
()
12
12

(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
2514 .. 7
.. 9
.. 10
.. 14
.. 15
.. 13
149
12.4
12.6
.. 15
154
12.8
13.0
.. 14
158
13.2
13.2
.. 15
159
13.2
13.2
.. 14
158
13.2
13.1
.. 12
157
13.1
13.2
.. 11

(5)

119.0
107.7
113.6
106.1
91.6
83.3

250

7.8 12 ()

()
2515 .. 12
.. 13
.. 11
..13
.. 14
.. 16
.. 14
.. 16
.. 15
.. 13
.. 12
.. 13
2516 .. 13
.. 12
.. 13
.. 16
.. 18
.. 19
.. 17
.. 17
.. 16
.. 15
.. 15
.. 16
2517 .. 18
.. 22
.. 24
.. 26
.. 28
.. 29
.. 30
.. 28
.. 29
.. 28
.. 27
.. 29

12
160
159
161
161
160
160
163
161
160
162
165
169
172
175
176
177
179
182
185
190
200
211
221
231
241
254
265
278
291
303
316

12
13.3
13.2
13.4
13.4
13.3
13.3
13.5
13.4
13.3
13.5
13.7
14.1
14.3
14.6
14.7
14.75
14.9
15.2
15.4
15.8
16.7
17.6
18.4
19.3
20.1
21.2
22.1
23.2
24.3
25.3
26.3

12

13.2
13.3
13.4
13.3
13.3
13.4
13.4
13.3
13.4
13.6
13.9
14.2
14.5
14.7
14.7
14.8
15.1
15.3
15.6
16.3
17.2
18.0
18.9
19.7
20.7
21.7
22.7
23.8
24.8
25.8

90.9
97.7
82.0
97.7
150.3
119.4
104.5
120.3
111.9
95.1
86.3
91.5
89.6
91.6
88.4
108.1
119.1
124.2
109.0
104.3
93.0
83.3
79.4
81.2
87.0
101.4
105.7
109.2
112.9
112.4

251

12 2514
(149)

(4) 7+9.11 = 149 9 (..2514) +10+12(..
2515) = 154 (3) 12
(2) 12 (4)
(3) 2 2 (
12.4+12.8)/2 (12.8+13.2)/2 (5
(1) (4)
100 15 / 12.6 100 = 119
(5)


7.9
7.9

..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..

2514

119.0
107.7
113.6
106.1
91.6
83.3

2515

2516

90.9
97.7
82.0
97.7
105.3
119.4
104.5
120.3

89.6
81.6
88.4
108.1
119.2
124.2
109.0
104.3

95.1
86.3
91.5

83.3
79.4
81.2

2517
87.0
101.4
105.7
109.2
112.9
112.4

89.2
93.6
92.3
105.0
112.5
118.7
110.8
110.8

88.4
92.7
91.4
104.0
111.4
117.6
109.8
109.8

98.2
85.8
88.7
1210.8

97.3
85.0
88.0
1200.0

252

12
1200 1200 1200
1200 (89.2 1200) / 1210.8 = 88.4


-



= T S

()
7-10

1.
2.
3.
4.

2510
330
465
433
327

2511
272
381
346
279

2512
263
384
386
332

2513
277
449
403
353

2514
299
487
488
386

2515
335
477
416
357

2516
298
485
408
353

2517
299
419
307
226

1.

Yt = 366 .29 + 0 .095 X

Yt = ()
X =
1 2515
2. 2518 X
16,17,18 19 (1) 7-9

253

3.
3 4 (2) 7-10
4.
(1)
(2)
(3) 2518
7-11 2518

(1)
(T)

(2)
(S)

1
2
3
4

367.81
367.90
367.99
368.08

0.790
1.201
1.095
0.912

(3)

290.57
441.85
402.95
335.69

3. (Causal method)

(variable)

254

(lag-lead relationship)

(Coefficient of correlation)

(regression analysis)

. (coefficient to correlation)

r r 0 1
(+) (-)

r 1

r (0)


(r)
7-14
(scatter
diagram)
7 14
()
r r 1

255

()
r r 0

7.14 2

( r )
xy ( x ) ( y ) / N

y
( x ) / N
x

/N

Y:
X:
N: X Y

R R
x y + b x y + ... + b x y
= b
y
1

y .123...n

xn

y =

xn
yn

xn

256

. (Regression analysis)


2
2

Yc = a + bx

a b
XY ( X Y ) / N
X ( x ) / N
y bx

b =

a =

7-12

r
=

( x ) ( y ) / N

( x ) / N
y
x

xy

/N

3,238,383.91 (3,779.3)(9,956.3) /12

2

1,222,080.31 (3,779.3) 2 /12 8,595,144.11 (9,956.3) 2 /12

= 0.9987

Yc = a + bx
a b
b =

XY
X

( X
2

Y ) / N

( x ) 2 / N

3,238 ,683 . 91 ( 3 ,779 . 3)( 9 , 956 . 3) / 12

1,222 ,080 . 31 ( 3 ,779 . 3) 2 / 12

= 3.238
a = [9,956.3 (3,238)(3,779.3)]/ 12 = 190.1

= 190 . 1 + 3 . 238

257

7-12
(Y)
(X)
()
()
2505
2506
2507
2508
2509
2510
2511
2512
2513
2514
2515
2516

XY

X2

Y2

575.0
633.7
633.5
714.4
761.7
798.3
828.3
914.1
944.8
989.2
1,056.1
1,106.7

238.7
252.5
256.9
274.4
292.9
308.8
317.9
337.1
349.4
363.6
384.6
402.5

137,252.50
160,009.25
162,746.15
196,031.36
223,101.93
246,515.04
263,475.52
308,143.11
330,113.12
359,373.12
406,176.06
445,446.75

56,977.69
63,756.25
65,997.61
75,295.36
85,790.41
95,357.44
101,060.41
113,363.41
122,080.36
132,204.96
147,917.16
162,006.25

330,625.00
401,575.69
401,322.25
510,367.36
580,186.89
637,282.89
686,909.44
835,578.81
892,647.04
978,516.64
1,115,347.21
1,224,784.89

9,956.3

3,779.3

3,238,683.91

1,222,080.31

8,595,144.11

(Yc)
Yc = 190.1 + 3.238 X




7-15
( S yx )
s

yx

a Y b
N 2

XY

258

7.12
8,595,144.11 (190.1)(9,956.3) (3,238)(3,238,683.91)
12 2

Syx =

= 9.9

Yc = a + bX
Syx

7-15

S yx
95 % Yc 1.96S yx 2518
410 Yc 190.1 + 3.238 410 = 1,137.48
95 % 2518 1,137.48 1.96(9.9)
1,137.48 19.40 1,118.08 1,156.88




Y = a + b X + b X + ....... + b X a , b1 , b 2 ,..

c

259

4. (Market-area Analysis)

1.
2.
3.
4.

5.

5

. (Direct data method)

ABC
7-13

260

7-13
ABC

250,000
1.3

86,000
0.4

980,000
5.0

77,000
0.4

140,000
0.7

70,000
0.4

1,603,000
8.2

19,600,000
100.0

ABC
%

1.5
10.0
2,500,000
1,150,000
0.7
7.5
5,500,000
3.4
17.8
1,100,000
0.7
7.0
1,900,000
1.2
7.4
840,000
0.5
8.3
12,990,000
8.0
12.3
161,247,00 100.0
12.1

ABC



(Warranty card)

. (Corollary product method)

261

(Buying power indexes)

. ( Arbitrary-factors method)



1.
2.
3.
4.

262

3 3 4
7-14
7-14

0.0055
0.0052
0.0060

3
3
4
10

0.0165
0.0156
0.0240
0.0561/10 = 0.0056

. (Multiple correlation method)

5 1 5
.64 , .81 , .79 , .84 .86
0 1 1
5
5

263

.86

1.

2.

3.
4.
5.

4 1)

(expense and effort to
sales ratios) 2)

3)


1) 2)
3) 4)
4)

264

2

()
(Quota)

1. ?

2. ?
3. ?
4. ? ?
5. ? ?
6. (internal company records)
7. (Marketing intelligence)
8. ?
9. ?
10.
.
.
.
.
.

265

(2520). . : .
(2546). . : .
Daniel, E., Wilson, H. and McDonald, M. (2003). Towards a map of marketing information
systems: an inductive study. European Journal of Marketing, 37, (5/6), 821-847.
Dalrymple, F. (1999). Marketing implementation, organizational change and internal
marketing strategy. In Baker, Michael J. (Eds.), The Marketing Book (pp. 203237). Melbourne : 4thed.: Butterworth-Heinemann.
Fletcher, K.(1999). The evolution and use of communication and information technology
in marketing. In Baker, M.J. (Eds.). The Marketing Book. (pp. 238-263).
Melbourne, 4th Ed. Butterworth-Heinemann.
Guiltinan, Joseph P., Paul, Gordon W., and Madden, Thomas J. (1997). Marketing
Management: strategies and programs. 6th ed. Singapore: McGraw-Hill. Inc.
Kerin, Roger A., Berkowitz, E.N., Hartley, S.W, & Rudelius, W. (2003). Marketing. 8th ed.
Singapore: McGraw-Hill. Inc
Kinnear, T.C. and James R. Taylor. (1987). Marketing Research: An applied approach. 2
nd
ed. Singapore: McGraw-Hill, Inc.
Kotler, Philip. (1994). Marketing Management: analysis, planning, implementation, and
control. 8th ed. Singapore: Prentice-Hall.
Malhotra, N. K. (1996). Marketing Research: An applied orientation. Singapore:
Prentice-Hall, Inc.
_______., M. Peterson, and S.B. Kleiser. (1999). Marketing research: a state-of-theart review and directions for the twenty-first century. Journal of the Academy of
Marketing Science. 27, (2), 160-183.
McDonald, Malcolm. (2002). Marketing Plans: How to prepare them, how to use them.
5th ed. Singapore: Butterworth-Heinemann.
Perreault, William D., and McCarthy, E. Jerome. (2000). Essentials of Marketing: A
global-managerial approach. 8th ed. Singapore: McGraw-Hill. Inc.

266

Piercy, N.F. and Evans, M. (1999). Developing Marketing Information Capabilities. In

Baker, Michael J. (Eds.), The Marketing Book (pp. 264-297). Melbourne: 4thed.:
Butterworth-Heinemann.
Talvinen, J.M. (1995). Information systems in marketing: identifying opportunities for new
applications. European Journal of Marketing, 29, (1), 8-26.
Webb, John (1999). Marketing research. In Baker, Michael J. (Eds.), The Marketing
Book (pp. 154-177). Melbourne : 4thed.: Butterworth-Heinemann.