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Tsakos Energy Navigation Limited (TNP)

2014: Recommendations Overview Tsakos Energy Navigation Limited provides international seaborne crude oil and petroleum product transportation services worldwide. The company offers marine transportation services to national, major, and other independent oil companies and refiners under long, medium, and short-term charters. Its fleet consists of 49 double-hull vessels, totaling 4.9 million dwt, including 28 product carriers ranging from shuttle suezmaxes to handy size, 19 crude tankers ranging from VLCCs to aframaxes, and 2 liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers, as well as an option for an additional new building. Tsakos Energy Navigation Limited has a strategic partnership with Statoil ASA for the construction and chartering of series of Aframax Crude Tankers. The company was formerly known as MIF Limited and changed its name to Tsakos Energy Navigation Limited in July 2001. Tsakos Energy Navigation Limited was founded in 1993 and is based in Athens, Greece. Investment Thesis TNP has a current Value of $8.01 per share, therefore, it is undervalued compared to its Price of $6.10 per share and has a current Stop of $5.31 per share; this is $0.79 below TNP's current closing Price. The forecasted Earnings Growth Rate of 31.00%, a forecasted EPS of $0.15 per share a P/E of $40.67. TNP pays an annual dividend of $0.20 per share which is an annual yield of 1.34%. It currently has a sales Growth estimation of 9.00% per year which should equal $7.00 earnings per share in 2014. Reported the strategic partnership with Statoil, an international energy company headquartered in Stavanger Norway (NYSE: STO) for the construction and chartering of five to nine purpose built Daewoo Aframax crude tankers with a contract term of five to twelve years including options. The gross revenues from this project are expected to range between minimum $250 million to approximately $1 billion. To date, TEN's fleet, including the LNG Maria Energy and five Aframax crude oil tankers under construction, consists of 54 double-hull vessels, a mix of product tankers, crude tankers and LNG carriers, totaling 5.5 million dwt. Of these, 28 are product carriers ranging from DP2 shuttle suezmaxes to handy size, 24 are crude tankers ranging from VLCCs to Aframaxes, and two are LNG carriers. The Company holds also an option for a 174,000 cbm tri-fuel LNG carrier to be exercised no later than January 31, 2014. Recommendation Looking out for a long term trade in 2014 TNP is a moderately inexpensive trade. The stock is moving steadily off its lows, following the 200 Day EMA. It has its hard support line at $3.23. It has already broken past its first resistance mark at $5.26. Its next point of resistance isnt until $8.63, which gives the stock an additional 69% profit. If TNP can make it past R2 ($8.63) it will have another 62% increase to its major resistance at $13.75. If by the end of 2014 TNP appreciates to $13.75 and begins to tap the barrier the stock will already have accumulated 228.03%. This would make it one of 2014s best unknown winners.

The Fresh Market, Inc. (TFM)

2014 : Recommendations Overview The Fresh Market, Inc. operates as a specialty grocery retailer. The company offers various perishable product categories, including meat, seafood, produce, deli, bakery, floral, sushi, and prepared foods; and non-perishable product categories, such as traditional grocery and dairy products, as well as bulk, coffee and candy, beer and wine, and health and beauty products. As of March 12, 2013, it operated 130 stores in 25 states of the United States. The company was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Greensboro, North Carolina. Investment Thesis TFM has a forecasted Earnings Growth Rate of 11.00% and has a forecasted Earnings Per Share of $1.45. TFM has a P/E of 28.14; also to note TFM has a Sales Growth of 13.00% per year which should equal $30.09 per share for 2014. The fresh market announces further expansion in Florida Specialty Grocer Signs Lease for Store in Lake Mary Lake Mary, Fla. (December 19, 2013) - The Fresh Market continues to grow its chain of specialty grocery stores and has signed a lease for a new location in Lake Mary, FL. According to Jim Cramer of CNBC It does raise questions about the gross underperformance of The Fresh Market (TFM), which declined 16% in 2013. Unlike Whole Foods, it doesn't appear as if Fresh Market could withstand the pricing pressure from conventional retailers like Wal-Mart and Kroger (KR), which have scaled their organic offerings. That said, I would bet my money that the company will but up a better fight in 2014. And if I'm looking for a relative outperformance, Fresh Market should be at the top of the list, likely at the expense of Natural Grocers. Recommendation Holding this beaten down stock would be worth the risk. The stock has already contracted to its MS (Major Support) mark at $38.75. It has repetitively bounced along this bottom slowly grabbing traction. Because this stock does have volatility, it would not be surprising if the stock makes run for its resistance marks at $50.31 , $52.75 , $55 and if the stock maintains the traction it could attempt to reach its previous highs at $62.70. This stock is a note worthy investment because the chart shows the trading range this stock historically trades in. It has a probability, and directional indicators. It would be an early trade in the New Year, and a more probable profit generator.

American Vanguard Corp. (AVD)

2014 : Recommendations Overview American Vanguard Corporation, through its subsidiaries, engages in developing, manufacturing, and marketing specialty chemical products primarily for agricultural and commercial uses. The company manufactures and formulates chemicals for crops, human, and animal health protection. Its chemical products include insecticides, fungicides, herbicides, molluscicides, growth regulators, and soil fumigants in liquid, powder, and granular forms. American Vanguard Corporation also sells its products for pharmaceutical, cosmetic, and nutritional markets. The company was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Newport Beach, California. Investment Thesis AVD has a current Value of $40.08 per share. Therefore, it is undervalued compared to its Price of $24.10 per share. AVD has a forecasted Earnings Growth Rate of 19.00%has a forecasted EPS of $1.94 per share. AVD pays an annual dividend of $0.20 per share. AVD has a Dividend Growth of 20% which is well above the average of 1.34% in the sector. AVD has a Sales Growth of 8.00% per year equaling $14.27 per share. Recommendation AVD is trading within a lateral wedge pattern. The base support of $23.50 is allowing the stock to consolidate and allow the 200 Day EMA to catch up to it. The 200 Day EMA will allow AVD to break the wedge channel at $25.30 and move to its ceiling at $28.20 giving it an early 19-20% in the first quarter of the New Year. It could possibly test the highs after breaking through the first ceiling but that would be a $12 jump; over 52.85% appreciation. I do not like to wish or even worse hope for such things, I look for the probabilities. If AVD can break the $28.20 ceiling the likely hood of running to its previous highs increases dramatically. But it all depends on the channel break.

Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. (HII)

2014 : Recommendations Overview Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. designs, builds, overhauls, and repairs ships primarily for the U.S. Navy and Coast Guard. It offers nuclear-powered ships, such as aircraft carriers and submarines; and nonnuclear ships, including surface combatants, expeditionary warfare/amphibious assault, coastal defense surface ships, and national security cutters, as well as engages in the refueling and overhaul, and inactivation of nuclear-powered ships. The company also operates as a full-service systems provider for the design, engineering, construction, and life cycle support of major programs for surface ships; and a provider of fleet support and maintenance services for the U.S. Navy. In addition, it provides a range of support services, including fabrication, construction, equipment, and technical services, as well as product sales to commercial nuclear power plants, fossil power plants, and other industrial facilities, as well as government customers. The company is based in Newport News, Virginia. Investment Thesis HII has a current Value of $128.88 per share; therefore, it is undervalued compared to its Price of $88.78 per share. Forecasted Earnings Growth Rate is estimated at 25.00%, with a forecasted EPS of $6.07 per share. HIIs annual dividend is $0.80 per share which is a Dividend Growth rate of 17%. Currently, HII has a Sales Growth of 3.00% per year, and an estimated P/E of $135.81. Since its IPO, HII has experienced mixed results. 2011 was a difficult year as product sales decreased 2% from 2010, driven primarily by lower revenues in Surface Combatants, partially offset by higher revenues in Amphibious Assault Ships. In 2012, product sales increased 1%, which included a slight decline in Amphibious Assault Ship sales, partially offset by higher sales in Surface Combatants. Service revenues in 2011 decreased 3%, but increased 6% in 2012. HII is more a pure play on the Navy, which I expect to be more robust and less affected than Army and Air Force spending as fewer resources are put into Iraq and Afghanistan. Furthermore, the company is roughly 10x smaller than GD, offering a small-cap advantage to retail investors. While information and research is more difficult to come by, making tougher work for investors, the ability for HII to increase its size and market capitalization is much easier than GD. On a valuation perspective, there is potential upside. Although less than GD, the required margin of safety in my opinion is less as well, making this stock a less risky pick over the long term. Recommendation How do you stop a freight train? This is the best way to describe this stock. HII is priced perfectly for the retail investor to get in on a great stock, and has great momentum for institutional investors to seriously consider making significant plays into it. The stock is moving along in step with 50, 100, and the 200 Day EMA. Strong channels, strong options indicators, all pointing up. It would take a significant event to derail this possible 2014 heavy weight.

SM Energy Company (SM)

2014 : Recommendations Overview SM Energy Company, an independent energy company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, exploitation, development, and production of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in North America. It has operations in the South Texas and Gulf Coast region primarily on Eagle Ford shale program; and the Rocky Mountain region, including the Bakken/Three Forks formations in the North Dakota portion of the Williston Basin. The company also operates in the Mid-Continent region consisting of the Granite Wash formation in western Oklahoma, and the Haynesville and Woodford shale assets; and the Permian region covering western Texas and eastern New Mexico focusing on Mississippian limestone play. The company was formerly known as St. Mary Land & Exploration Company and changed its name to SM Energy Company in May 2010. SM Energy Company was founded in 1908 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado. Investment Thesis SM has a current Value of $144.13 per share therefore it is undervalued compared to its Price of $82.91 per share. It currently has an estimated Earnings Growth Rate of 31.00% and forecasted EPS of $5.41 per share. With long-term interest rates currently holding at 3.11%, SM pays an annual dividend of $0.10 per share. This is below the current average of 1.3% and has a Dividend Growth rate of 0%. Such factors are not as appealing compared to the sales growth of 62.00% per year. This is excellent in comparison to the rest of the sector. SM has an estimated P/E of $31.36 per share. SM Energy Company reported unaudited consolidated earnings and production results for the third quarter and nine months ended September 30, 2013. The company reported net income of $70.7 million, or $1.04 per diluted share. This compares to a net loss of $38.3 million, or $0.58 per diluted share, for the same period of 2012. Adjusted net income was $105.4 million, or $1.54 per diluted share, compared to adjusted net income of $9.7 million, or $0.14 per diluted share, for the same period of 2012. Recommendation After coming off the drop to the support line in early December of this year, SM has already started to bounce back. Just like many stocks that the chart indicates its past price momentums SM has the unique ability to show where the major supports and resistance levels are. These levels are extremely important to measure the stocks health. If stocks can not break past these resistance marks, they will not be able to maintain the levels that they are currently holding, and break downs occur. SMs major resistance mark is the $84.35 mark. And as it continues to climb with the supportive help of the 100 Day EMA it will most likely break the barrier before New Years on Wednesday. After that there are just two resistance points for it over come before it breaks into New Highs. The two resistance marks are $88, and $92. If the stock can appreciate the $14 it will be able to move towards the estimated value mark. If the stock fails to break the first resistance mark it would not have another support mark until $69.60, a 12.4% decrease. The best course of action would be to have this stock on your watch list and if it does break through R1 ($84.35) then I would slowly start acquiring positions at the resistance marks. Even if you were to wait until SM broke through $92, at an estimated value of $144.13 by years end that is still a 63.8% profit.

iShares MSCI Turkey (TUR)

2014 : Recommendations Overview The investment seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the MSCI Turkey Investable Market Index (the &quote; underlying index& quote ;). The fund will at all times invest at least 90% of its assets in the securities of the underlying index or in depositary receipts representing securities in its underlying index. The underlying index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index designed to measure broad-based equity market performance in Turkey. Components primarily include consumer staples, financial and industrials companies. The fund is non-diversified. Investment Thesis TUR has a current Value of $45.50 per share a trailing stop $48.45 per share this is $2.95 above below TUR's current closing. TUR has a forecasted Earnings Growth Rate of 0.00%, has a forecasted EPS of $0.00 per share pays an annual dividend of $2.23 per share. The dividend yield is estimated at 4.9 % and has an estimated dividend growth rate of 15%. This is above the current average even though TUR has a Sales Growth of 0.00% per year. Wednesday, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan pushed Environment and Urban Planning Minister Erdogan Bayraktar and two other ministers to resign, and Bayraktar--who served alongside Erdogan since the 1990s--called for the prime minister's resignation. The moves follow the unveiling last week of a wide-ranging corruption investigation targeting many of Erdogan's allies in politics and business, the political turmoil continued as one of the prosecutors involved in the corruption investigation was removed after he said his efforts were being blocked. The issues have sent Turkish markets sliding, with the lira and stocks sinking while declines in Turkish bonds have sent yields climbing. The TUR e.t.f. tracks the MSCI Turkey Investable Market Index, which is designed to measure the performance of the large- and mid-cap segments of the Turkish market. The index covers about 85% of the equity universe in Turkey. But trading on Thursday 12/26/2013, entered into oversold territory, changing hands as low as $45.59 per share. Morning Star defines oversold territory using the Relative Strength Index, or RSI, which is a technical analysis indicator used to measure momentum on a scale of zero to 100. A stock is considered to be oversold if the RSI reading falls below 30. Recommendation After coming off the drop to the support line in January 2012, TUR made a steady, and volatile run to its previous highs and had a 92.12% gain by the end of 2012. Currently TUR has already started to bounce back. Just like many stocks that the chart indicates its past price momentums TUR has the unique ability to show where the major supports and resistance levels are. These levels are extremely important to measure the stocks health. If stocks can not break past these resistance marks, they will not be able to maintain the levels that they are currently holding, and break downs occur. TURs major resistance marks are $43.70, $47.75, $52.04, and $55.85. And as it continues to climb with the supportive help of the 200 Day EMA it will most likely break the first two barriers by the end of the first quarter. Regardless if TUR achieves the same feat as last year and appreciating to its original highs this stock is more probable to easily obtain half that distance. This is not at all disappointing at a 37.79% gain. Remember when in trading and investing, you always want profitability with the highest probability.