CONCLUSION AND PERSPECTIVES

The aim of our analysis was to verify livestock mortality due to a lack of forage was linked to location and season and if we could detect an influence of the season within each observation site. Analysis of variance revealed that there was a weak influence of the geographical and seasonal parameter and that they could not explain significantly the trend in mortality. However, multiple comparisons of means showed that, even if there is no general impact of the season and location on livestock mortality, we could observe a certain interaction between the two parameters.

We concluded that, even if there is no global effect of season and location on mortality trend; which means that livestock losses could be predicted using a global model; the different combinations of geographical and seasonal parameters do not contribute equally to global livestock mortality. From the analysis of variance and generalized linear modelling, it also appeared that observation sites located in the south of the Marsabit District had a stronger influence in the livestock mortality trend.

This study showed that, in addition to forage availability, other effects; that are reflected in the geographical parameter; should be considered in drought related livestock mortality modelling. Various factors may have an influence on mortality, some were already highlighted in Chantarat et al., 2012. The new elements that will be examined include:

 variations in local meteorological and vegetation conditions, differences in herding techniques and systems of production: size of the herd, species of animals kept, mobility of the herders adaptation of herders to drought

The next step of this project is to investigate these other effects and their impact on livestock mortality by statistical analysis and modelling as well as by field work and interviews with the herders of the Marsabit District.