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Gii Thiu Sch: Giao Dch Ngoi Hi

Kinh doanh t gi hi oi l mt lnh vc kinh doanh mi pht trin mnh m trn ton th gii trong vng mt thp k nay. Khng ging nh kinh doanh chng khon l bn phi c tin mua/bn chng khon, bn phi m ti khon ti mt sn giao dch c dnh, bn phi ch khp lnh, bn ch c giao dch vo gi lm vic qui nh (v d nh Vit Nam, sn giao dch ch hot ng vo bui sang t th hai n th su m thi), nu bn ang c mt cng vic n nh th s kh dn xp giao dch. c bit l bn s khng th no bit ht c nhng tr chi ca cc i gia trn sn chng khon, ni chung l bn thiu nhng thng tin xc nh s trung thc ca nhng bin ng trn th trng chng khon. cng chnh l nhng hn ch m th trng chng khon dn dn mt i s hp dn ca n. i vi nhng nh kinh doanh nh y bn, nng ng, h cn tm mt cuc hp bnh ng hn v trung thc hn h c c hi th hin kh nng v t c c vng lm giu ca mnh. Th trng ngoi hi (foreign exchange market, vit tt l Forex market) cho h c hi . Ti liu ny dnh cho bt c nh u t c nhn no (l doanh nhn hoc cha phi l doanh nhn) khng phn bit tui tc hay trnh vn ho nhng dm i u vi th thch, bng ti nng v tr tu ca mnh, c s vi cc nh giao dch th gii tim kim ngoi t v cho t nc. Mt khon thu nhp cc k hp dn, vt xa tr tng tng ca bn l phn thng cho nhng ai dm c m v quyt tm thc hin nhng g mnh mun mt cch thng minh nht. Hi vng rng sau khi c quyn sch nh ny, cc bn s cm nhn c mt chn tri mi ang m ra cho kht vng lm giu ca mnh. Vi phng chm hc lm, quyn sch bao gm nhng kin thc c bn nht ca qu trnh giao dch, mong rng cc bn s p dng c n khi ra cc quyt nh kinh doanh ca mnh. Mc lc: Li ni u Chng 1: Nhp mn kinh doanh Forex Chng 2: C s hnh thnh v kinh doanh th trng ngoi hi Chng 3: C s tin hnh giao dch Chng 4: Cc loi biu (Charts) Chng 5: Biu cy nn trong giao dch Chng 6: Mc sn, mc trn, ng xu hng v knh xu hng Chng 7: ng trung bnh ng (Moving Averages) Chng 8: Fibonacci Chng 9: Mt s cng c ch th thng dng Chng 10: Cng c ch th dao ng v ch th tc thay i Chng 11: Nhng mu biu quan trng Chng 12: Nhng im xoay (Pivot Points) Chng 13: Sng Elliott (Elliott wave) Chng 14: S dng nhiu khung thi gian trong giao dch Forex Chng 15: Lm th no c biu v phn ng hiu qu Chng 16: To ra h thng giao dch ca bn Chng 17: Chn gi giao dch trn th trng Chng 18: Qun l tin Chng 19: Lp k hoch giao dch v giao dch theo k hach Chng 20: Chin lc giao dch Chng 21: Cm nang giao dch trn th trng Forex.

GII THIU THM V TH TRNG NGO I HI Forex l t vit tt ca cm Foreign Exchange: trao i ngoi t hoc ngoi hi, cn c vit tt l FX hay spot FX. y l th trng ti chnh ln nht th gii, vi s lng tin giao dch mi ngy ln dn 1.95 nghn t USD (2006). Nu bn so snh vi th trng chng khon New York 25 t USD giao dch mi ngy, bn s c th tng tng c th trng ny khng l nh th no. Th trng trao i ngoi t (Forex) l th trng tin t gia cc ngn hng c thnh lp vo nm 1971 khi t l trao i tri ni c c th ho. Th trng l mt phm vi hot ng trong tin t ca mi quc gia c trao i vi nhau v l ni thc hin vic kinh doanh quc t. Forex l mt nhm gm khong 4500 t chc giao dch tin t, cc ngn hng quc t, cc ngn hng trung tm ca

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chnh ph v cc cng ty thng mi. Vic chi tr cho xut nhp khu cng nh vic mua bn ti sn u phi thng qua th trng trao i ngoi t. y c gi l th trng trao i ngoi t "tiu th". Cng c nhng on u c trong nhng cng ty Forex l s phi by v ti chnh rng ln cc nn kinh t nc ngoi tham gia vo Forex b p nguy c ri ro ca vic u t quc t. Hng ha trn th trng Forex Vy hng ha ca th trng FOREX l g? Cu tr li l TIN. Giao dch ngoi hi l hot ng giao dch mua mt s lng tin ny v bn mt s lng tin khc din ra cng thi im. Tin c giao dch thng qua ngi mi gii hoc trc tip theo tng cp; v d cp EUR/USD hay GBP/JPY. Hot ng giao dch FOREX c th s phc tp i vi nhiu ngi v h khng th mua bn tn tay bt k th g trong th trng. n gin bn hy ngh vic mua 1 ng tin no nh l mua c phn ca 1 t nc. Khi bn mua ng Yn Nht, bn ang tc dng n t gi ngoi hi ca Nht v gin tip ln Kinh t Nht, do gi tr ca ng tin l s phn chiu nh gi ca th trng v sc khe trong hin ti v trong tng lai ca mt quc gia. Tng quan, t gi ca mt loi tin t so vi mt loi tin t khc l s phn chiu cc yu t ca mt nn kinh t khi so snh vi mt nn kinh t khc. Khng nh cc th trng ti chnh khc, FOREX cng khng c mt trung tm ti chnh hay giao dch no c. Th trng ngoi hi l th trng lin ngn hng, v da trn giao dch in t gia h thng ni kt cc ngn hng vi nhau, v hot ng sut 24 gi trong ngy, i tng tham gia Forex Trong thp k trc, ch c nhng g khng l mi gia nhp th trng ny c. iu kin ti thiu nu bn mun giao dch trong thi gian l bn phi c t 10 n 50 triu USD bt u. FOREX ra i lc u nhm mc ch p ng nhu cu ca cc ngn hng v cc cng ty khng l trong ngnh, khng phi l nhng chng t hon. Tuy nhin, vi s h tr k diu ca Internet, h thng giao dch trc tuyn, cc cng ty giao dch ra i cho php m nhng ti khon l cho chng ta. Ngy nay, nhng nh mi gii trn th trng c php ph v nhng n v giao dch rng ln v cho php nhng giao dch nh c c hi mua v bn bt c s no trong nhng gi tr nh hn ny (lots). Ngn hng thng mi c 2 vai tr trong th trng Forex 1. Lm cho vic giao dch gia hai bn tr nn d dng, v d nh nhng cng ty mun trao i tin t (ngi tiu th). 2. u c bng cch mua v bn tin t. Ngn hng c vai tr trong nhng n v tin t nht nh bi v ngi ta tin rng trong tng lai chng s c gi cao hn (nu mua tr) v thp hn (nu bn sm). Ngi ta thng k rng 70% li tc thng nin ca nhng ngn hng quc t c sinh ra t vic u c tin t. Nhng u c khc bao gm nhng nh giao dch thnh cng nht trn th gii v d George Soros. Loi th 3 ca Forex bao gm nhng ngn hng trung ng ca cc quc gia khc ging nh ngn hng d tr lin bang M. H tham gia Forex m bo li nhun ti chnh ca quc gia h. Khi ngn hng trung tm mua v bn tin t hoc ngoi t th mc ch l gi vng gi tr ng tin ca t nc h. Forex rt rng v c rt nhiu ngi tham gia ch khng phi mt ngi, ch c nhng ngn hng trung tm ca chnh ph mi c th kim sot th trng. So snh vi mc giao dch trung bnh hng ngy 300 t ca th trng Tri phiu chnh ph v khong 100 t c giao dch trn th trng chng khon M th Forex rt ln v vt qua mc 1.9 nghn t mi ngy (2006). Phng tin tham gia th trng T th trng l s nhm tn nh nhng trong vic m t giao dch Forex. Khng c v tr money_coin.jpgtrung tm cho vic hot ng giao dch v n c trong nhng th trng tin t tng lai. Giao dch c thc hin qua in thoi v thng qua nhng my vi tnh hng trm v tr trn khp th gii. Phn ln giao dch c thc hin gia khong 300 ngn hng quc t ln ni s hu nhng giao dch cho cng ty ln, chnh ph v cho chnh ti khon ca h. Nhng ngn hng ny tip tc cung cp gi (bid mua v ask bn) vi nhau v vi nhng th trng rng hn. Ch s gn y nht t 1 trong nhng ngn hng ny c xem l gi hin ti trn th trng ca ng tin . Nhng dch v bo co d liu ring khc nhau cung cp nhng thng tin v gi c trc tip thng qua internet. Tt c nhng g bn cn khi giao dch l mt chic my vi tnh, kt ni Internet, v nhng thng tin v th trng.

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ng tin no c giao dch? 7 loi tin c giao dch thng xuyn nht trn th trng l : Dollar, Euro, Yen, Bng Anh, Franc. K hiu cc loi tin gm 3 ch ci, trong 2 ch ci u tin l vit tt ca tn quc gia v ch ci cui cng l tn ca loi ng tin giao dch Khi no th giao dch xy ra? Th trng FOREX rt c bit so vi cc th trng khc trn th gii. N cng tng t nh 1 i siu th Wal-mart ni mi ngi c th ra vo 24 gi/ngy. V mt ni no trn th gii, hot ng giao dch s din ra thng qua vic mua bn ngoi t vi ngn hng, ti tt c cc mi gi ngy v m, v ch ngng hot ng trong mt thi gian ngn cui tun. Bn c th giao dch bt k gi no trong ngy ty bn c thi quen lm vic ban m hay bui sng. Th trng ngoi hi Th trng ngoi hi vt ln tt c cc th trng khc tr thnh th trng ti chnh ln nht v ph bin nht trn th gii, c giao dch bi hng triu c nhn v t chc quc t. Ti y, ngui tham gia s quyt nh ch th giao dch, ty vo iu kin, gi c v uy tn ca i tng. Biu di y th hin hot ng giao dch ngoi hi ton cu. USD l ng tin c giao dch ch yu, k n l EURO v Yn Nht ng v tr th 3. Ti sao li giao dch ngoi hi? Di y l nhng thun li v gi tr ca th trng Forex, l nhng l do ti sao mi ngi chn giao dch trong th trng ny: * Khng ph dch v : Khng ph trao i, khng ph thanh ton, khng ph chnh ph, khng ph mi gii. Ngi mi gii s c trch t ph giao dch thng qua im bid-ask (trung bnh 3-5 pips) * Khng qua trung gian t lnh: Giao dch tin t khng cn trung gian v cho php khch hng giao dch trc tip vi th trng v c cp nht thng tin trc tip v gi v t gi cc cp tin t. * Khng gii hn giao dch: trong cc th trng khc hp ng giao dch c gii hn bi t l nht nh ( v d hp ng quyn chn tng lai i vi vng l 5000 ounces). Trong Forex, c th giao dch vi ch mt ti khon nh 300$. * Ph giao dch thp: Ph giao dch cho cc ti khon nh ( bid/ask spread) ch khong 0.1% vi nhng iu kin thng. Ti khon cng ln ph giao dch cng thp. * Th trng giao dch 24h: Khng phi ch i gi th trng m ca v ng ca. Giao dch t ti CN n tra th 6 gi EST, c th ni th trng FOREX khng bao gi ng. y l thun li ln i vi nhng ngi mun giao dch trong thi gian rnh hoc thi gian thch hp nht trong ngy, bi v bn c th chn giao dch bt k lc no (sng, tra, ti hoc m) * Khng ai c kh nng nh hng th trng: Th trng Forex qu ln v qu nhiu ngi tham gia nn khng ai , cho d c 1 ngn hng , c th kim sot gi tr trng trong di hn. S can thip ca ngn hng trung ng ch c tc dng trong ngn hn v khng hiu qu. Ngn hng trung ng ngy cng c t tc ng hay can thip vo th trng ton cu. * Access (Truy cp): Forex c m 24h/ngy t khong 6g chiu Ch Nht ti khong 3g chiu Th Su. Nhng ngi giao dch ring l c th i ph vi tin tc khi n c tung ra cn hn l i ting chung m ca ca nhng th trng khc lc mi ngi u c nhng tin tc ging nhau. iu ny cho php nhng ngi giao dch tham gia trc khi tin tc chi tit c phn tch trn t l giao dch. Liquidity cao v giao dch 24 gi cho php nhng ngi tham gia th trng vo v thot ra bt c lc no. C nhiu nh Mi gii phn phi Forex tng vng, tng trung tm th trng chnh (Tokyo, Hong Kong, Sydney, Paris, London, M, v.v) sn sng tip tc a ra gi mua v bn. * thanh khon cao: Bi v th trng Forex qu ln, n cng rt d thanh khon. iu ny gip bn nhanh chng thc hin giao dch ch vi 1 c nhp chut trong iu kin bnh thng. Bn c th mua bn ngay lp tc ty . Bn khng bao gi b kt trong th trng. Bn cng c th thit lp ch t ng cho sn giao dch kt thc lnh giao dch khi bn t c li nhun mong mun ( nh mc li) hoc ng khi th trng dch chuyn ngc chiu mong mun ( chng l) * Th trng 2 mt: tin c giao dch theo cp, v d: /yn, hoc /ng Thy S. Mi v tr lin quan n vic bn ng tin ny v mua ng tin kia. Nu ngi giao dch tin rng ng Thy S s cao gi hn , h c th bn v

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mua ng Thy S (bn sm). Nu ngi khc tin ngc li th h s mua v bn ng Thy S (mua v tr). Kh nng li nhun tn ti v t gi trao i (gi c) lun lun dao ng. .Giao dch Forex cho php thu li t 2 pha c tng v gim gi tr tin t lin quan ti . Trong mi giao dch tin t, mi bn u c c v mt. * Excution Quality: Bi v Forex rt hay thay i, hu ht nhng giao dch c th c thc hin vi gi ca th trng hin ti. Trong tt c nhng th trng di chuyn nhanh, khng th trnh c ri ro trong tt c cc giao dch (chng khon, bt ng sn, v.v) nhng c th c trnh bng 1 vi chng trnh phn mm ca nh mi gii tin t, cc chng trnh ny s thng bo cho bn bit gi nhp vo chnh xc trc khi thc hin lnh. Bn c php chn trnh hoc chp nhn ri ro. Kh nng thanh khon ca th trng Forex rng ln ra nhng kh nng khp lnh c cht lng cao. Giao dch c xc nhn ngay lp tc v ngi giao dch qua Internet ch vic in 1 bn sao ca mn hnh my vi tnh ghi chp li tt c hot ng giao dch. Nhiu ngi cho rng c im ca vic giao dch bng Internet an ton hn so vi vic s dng in thoi giao dch. Nhng hng ni ting nh Charles Schwab, Quick $ Reilly v T.D. Warehouse ngh giao dch qua Internet. H s khng mo him danh ting ca h nu dch v Internet khng ng tin cy v an ton. Trong tnh hung xut hin vn v k thut, my vi tnh tm thi ngng hot ng, nhng vi h thng t lnh (ordering) ca nh mi gii (broker), ngi giao dch c th ngay lp tc gi in thoi cho broker vo hoc thot ra khi giao dch. H thng vi tnh ca nh mi gii (broker Internet) c bo v bi nhng bc tng la gi cho thng tin v ti khon khng b dm ng. Mi quan tm ln nht ca broker l s an ton ca ti khon. H phi thc hin nhiu bc lai tr bt k him ha no i theo vic giao dch trn Internet. Ngi giao dch Forex trn Internet khng phi gi in thoi cho broker. S loi tr ngi trung gian (broker salesman) lm gim chi ph, lm cho tin trnh t lnh nhanh hn v hn ch kh nng hiu lm. * Tnh tp trung (Focus): Thay v c gng chn 1 chng khon, 1 kh c, qu h tng hoc bt ng sn t hng chc ngn th c sn trn th trng, nhng ngi giao dch Forex ch tp trung vo 1 ti 4 ng tin. Nhng ng d thay i v thng dng l: Yn Nht, bng Anh, ng Thy S v Euro. Nhng ngi giao dch thnh cng cao l nhng ngi tp trung vo s lng u t c gii hn. Nhng ngi mi bt u Forex thng tp trung vo 1 ng tin v sau kt hp t 1 n 3 ng trong hot ng giao dch. * Tnh xu hng (Trendiness): Trong 1 khong thi gian lch s, tin t khng nh xu hng l quan trng. Mi ng tin c tnh cch ring ca n v a ra ch 1 xu hng, bt k nhng c hi giao dch a dng trong th trng c im Forex. Tt c cc lnh phi c t thng qua sn giao dch. giao dch tin t bn phi cn 1 sn giao dch tin t Forex. Hu ht nhng cng ty giao dch c nhng yu cu v ti khon k qu khc nhau. Bn cn phi hi h nhng yu cu v ti khon k qu nu mun tham gia giao dch tin t thng qua sn giao dch ca h. Ti khon Giao dch trn Forex cn 1 ti khon k qu. Khi l ngi giao dch u c, bn s khng chuyn nhng sn phm m bn ang giao dch. Khi l ngi giao dch trong ngy, bn ch gi v tr giao dch t vi pht n vi gi, sau bn phi ng lnh v kt thc giao dch. Ti khon k qu khng khc g 1 kh c v thnh tch. Tt c giao dch u cn ti khan k qu. Khi c li, h li vo ti khon k qu ca bn ngay trong ngy. Khi thua, h cn 1 ti khon ly ra s tin l m bn phi chu. Ti khon c thit lp hng ngy. Khon k qu trong giao dch ngoi hi, mt khon tin k qu nh c th gip bn giao dch trn mt khon tin ln hn nhiu. Sc bt cho php ngi giao dch c th thu c li nhun khng l trn khon tin u t nhng ri ro c gii hn. Mt v d, ngi mi gii ngh bn 1 sc bt 200:1, c ngha l vi 500$ tin k qu bn c th giao dch trn s tin 100.000$. Nhng sc bt l con dao 2 li, v nu khng qun l ri ro tt, sc bt cng cao th ri ro cng ln v bn c th mt khon tin k qu trc khi bt u thu c li nhun. Mt phn rt quan trng ca vic giao dch l ly ra phn thng hay tin li ca bn. Khi n lc ly ra phn ca bn trong ti khon k qu, tt c nhng iu bn cn phi lm l lin lc vi broker ca bn v yu cu h gi cho bn s tin bn yu cu, h s gi chi phiu cho bn. H cng c th chuyn tin cho bn. * Ti khon o, tin tc, biu v phn tch: hu ht cc sn giao dch v mi gii u h tr bn giao dch bng ti khon o thc tp trc khi chi tht, v cung cp cho bn nhng tin nng cng nh nhng cng c h tr. l nhng ngun ti nguyn hu ch gip bn tch l y kinh nghim vi tin o trc khi bt u chi tht s.

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* Ti khon mini: Bn c th ngh rng mi bt u chi m u t nhiu tin s dn n thua l. Tht s l khng nh vy. Cc nh mi gii s h tr bn chi vi cc ti khon mini vi s vn ban u ch 3000-5000$. iu ny gip cho FOREX ngy cng kh thi hn vi nhng c nhn khng mun u t chi ph khi s ban u qu cao. Vy bn u t nh th no? Ti khon mini ban u c th l mt la chn tt cho bn. ng ci, vic ny cng ging nh vic gip bn bt lnh trc khi xung h bi ! Trong Forex, bn s t quyt nh bao nhiu tin trong mt ln giao dch. Tuy nhin, chng ti khuyn bn nn chi vi mt t l nh trong khon tin u t m bn c.

Chng I : Cc kiu biu

1.1 Line Charts (Biu ng k n) Mt biu ng k n ni t mt im gi ng (closing price) ti mt im gi ng k tip. Khi kt hp thnh mt ng k n, chng ta c th nhn thy qu trnh bin i gi tng qut theo thi gian ca mt cp tin t. VD biu ng k ca E/U : 1.2 Bar Charts (Biu thanh) Mt biu thanh cng hin th cc gi ng, trong khi ng thi hin th cc gi m (opening price) cng nh gi cao (high price) v gi thp (low price). Gc ca thanh ng ch gi trao i thp nht ti thi im , trong khi ngn ca thanh ch gi cao nht c tr. V vy, thanh ng ch khong gi trao i ca cp tin. Nhnh ngang bn tri thanh ng l gi m, v nhnh ngang bn phi l gi ng. Biu thanh cng c gi l biu OHLC (Open, High, Low, Close) bi v n ch ra gi m, gi cao, gi thp v gi ng. Open: The little horizontal line on the left is the opening price. Gi m l ng ngang nh bn tri High: The top of the vertical line defines the highest price of the time period. Gi cao l nh ca ng ng xc nh gi cao nht trong khong thi gian. Low: The bottom of the vertical line defines the lowest price of the time period. Gi thp l y ca ng ng xc nh gi thp nht trong khong thi gian. Close: The little horizontal line on the right is the closing price.Gi ng l ng ngang nh bn phi Ghi ch: mt thanh l mt khong thi gian c th l 1 ngy, 1 tun hoc 1 gi. 1.3 Candlestick Charts (Biu gi ) Biu gi hin th cng thng tin nh mt biu thanh, nhng theo mt nh dng ha p hn. Cc thanh gi vn ch khong gi cao n gi thp bng mt ng ng. Tuy nhin, trong biu gi , mt hnh ch nht gia ch khong gia gi m v gi ng. Theo thng tc, nu hnh ch nht c lm y hoc c mu th gi ng thp hn gi m. Trong v d bn di, mu en l c lm y. i vi hnh ch nht en, nh ca ch nht l gi m v y l gi ng. If gi ng cao hn gi m th ch nht s trng hoc khng mu. Chng ta khng mun s dng cc gi trng v en. Chng ta cm thy d nhn hn vi th mu. Chng ta thay th mu xanh cho trng v mu cho en. C ngha l nu gi ng cao hn gi m th mu xanh. Nu gi ng thp hn gi m th mu . Trong cc phn sau bn s thy cch s dng gi xanh v s cho php bn nhn biu nhanh hn, nh nhn thu xu hng ln hoc xung v cc im c kh nng o hng. Mc ch ca th gi hon ton l phc v cho vic quan st, bi v cc thng tin hin th ging nh biu thanh OHLC. u im ca biu gi l :

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Cc gi d hiu v thun tin i vi ngi mi bt u tnh ton phn tch th Cc gi d s dng. Mt ca bn s thch ng nhanh chng vi cc thng tin trong k hiu thanh Cc gi v cc mu gi c tn d nh chng hn nh sao bng (shooting star) Cc gi th thun tin cho vic xc nh cc im iu chnh ca th trng cc o hng t mt xu hng tng thnh mt xu hng gim hoc ngc li. By gi bn bit ti sao cc gi rt hay v chng ta s s dng biu gi cho hu ht cc v d v sau. Tm tt :

o o o

C 03 loi biu : Biu ng n Biu thanh Biu gi T by gi chng ta s s dng biu gi

Chng II : Giao dch vi biu gi Chng ta cp vn tt v biu gi trong bi trc, by gi chng ta s i su hn v bn lun thm v biu gi . Trc ht hy n li. 2.1 Gi l g? Cch y hn 200 nm, ngi Nht s dng kiu phn tch k thut ca h trong th trng go. Kiu phn tch ny pht trin thnh k thut gi hin c s dng trn th gii. Biu gi l mt cng c c lp hu ch. Biu gi c th c kt hp vi cc cng c k thut khc to ra mt k thut khc. S phi hp cc gi c th a ra mt chu k thng nht. Ngoi ra, cc gi c th ch ra mt bin ng ga. Cc gi c hnh thnh bng cch s dng gi m, gi cao, gi thp v gi ng. Nu gi ng trn gi m c mt gi trng. Nu gi ng di gi m ta c mt gi en. Phn ch nht trng hoc en ca gi c gi l thn. Cc ng bn trn v bn di thn i din cho khong gi cao/gi thp v c gi l bng. Gi cao c nh du bi nh ca bng trn v gi thp l y bng di iu ny cung cp cho bn thng tin quan trng v ng thi ca gi v to thnh bn cht ca gi .

2.1.1 Thn di i lp vi thn ngn Thn di hn ch p lc mua hoc bn mnh hn. Ngc li cc gi ngn hn ch s bin ng gi t hn v m t mt s do d gia tng gi (u c, bulls) v gim gi (bn tho, bears). Bull l ngi mua, bear l ngi bn. Cc gi trng di hin th p lc mua mnh. Gi trng di hn, hn na gi ng bn trn gi m. iu ny ch ra rng gi tng ng k t gi m n gi ng v ngi mua nhiu hn. Ni cc khc, ngi mua ang chng li ngi bn. Gi en di ch p lc bn mnh. Gi en di hn, hn na gi ng bn di gi m. iu ny ch rng gi gim nhiu t gi m v ngi bn nhiu hn. Ni cch khc, ngi bn ang ginh git ngi mua. 2.1.2 Bng di i lp vi bng ngn Bng trn v bng di ca gi c th cung cp thng tin gi tr v phin giao dch. Bng trn m t phin giao dch cao v bng di l phin giao dch thp. Gi vi bng ngn ch rng phn ln hot ng giao dch c gii hn gn gi m v gi ng.

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Gi vi bng di ch rng hot ng giao dch c m rng so vi gi m v gi ng. Gi vi bng trn di v bng di ngn ch rng ngi mua chim u th trong k giao dch v gi t mua cao hn. Tuy nhin, ngi bn sau y gi xung khi mc cao v gi ng yu to ra bng trn di. Trong trng hp khc, gi vi bng di di v bng trn ngn ch rng ngi bn chim u th trong phin giao dch v khin cho gi thp hn. Tuy nhin, ngi mua sau t li gi mua cao hn vo cui k giao dch v gi ng cao (mnh) to ra bng thp di. 2.2 Cc mu c bn 2.2.1 Marubozu Marubozu ngha l khng c bng trn thn. Gi thp v gi cao c m t bi gi m v gi ng Mt Marubozu trng l mt thn trng di khng c bng ch xu hng u c (tng gi). N hnh thnh khi gi m bng githp v gi ng bng gi cao. iu ny ch ra rng ngi mua iu khin hot ng gi t giao dch u tin n giao dch cui cng. N thng tr thanh phn u tin ca mt thi k tng gi ko di hoc mt mu chuyn sang hng tng gi. Mt Marubozu en l mt thn en di khng bng. N hnh thnh khi gi m bng gi cao v gi ng bng gi thp. iu ny ch rng ngi bn iu khin hot ng gi t phin giao dch u n cui. N thng a n thi k gim gi ko di hoc i sang hng gim gi. 2.2.2 Spinning Tops Gi vi mt bng trn di, bng di di v thn nh c gi l nh xoay. Mu ca thn khng quan trng lm. Mu ny ch s ging co gia xu hng tng gi v gim gi. Mt thn nh ch s bin ng nh gia gi m v gi ng, v bng ch rng c ngi mua v ngi bn tch cc hot ng trong sut phin giao dch. Mc d phin giao dch m v ng vi mt cht t bin ng, gi bin i ng k cao hn v thp hn trong k giao dch. C ngi bn cng nh ngi mua khng th ginh c quyn kim sot cao hn v kt qu l tm ngng (gii lao, standoff). Sau mt gi trng di hoc mt giai on tng gi di (tng trng), mt spinning top ch s yu i gia ngi mua v mt thay i tim nng hoc s gin on trong xu hng. Sau mt gi en di hoc mt giai on suy gim di, mt nh xoay ch s yu i gia ngi bn v mt thay i tim nng hoc s gin on trong xu hng. 2.2.3 Doji ng Doji l mu vi cng gi m v gi ng. Theo l tng, gi m v gi ng nn bng nhau. Mt doji vi gi m v gi ng bng nhau s c u tin, iu ny quan trng nm c bn cht ca gi . Doji truyn t mt kh nng ca s ginh co hoc cuc tranh ua gia ngi bn v ngi mua. Gi bin i trn v di gi m trong sut k giao dch, nhng ng ti hoc gn gi m. Kt qu l s tm ngng. C ngi bn v mua u khng th ginh quyn kim sot v im chuyn i c th pht sinh. Vic xc nh tm quan trng ca Doji s ph thuc vo gi, bin i gn , v cc gi trc . Lin quan n gi trc , doji c mt thn rt ngn xut hin nh mt ng mng. Mt doji hnh thnh gia cc gi khc vi thn nh (nh nh xoay) s khng c coi l quan trng. Tuy nhin, mt doji hnh thnh gia cc gi vi thn di s c cho rng c ngha. C 04 kiu doji c bit. Chiu di ca bng trn v di c th bin i v gi trng nh thnh gi, thnh gi o ngc hoc du tr. T doji m ch c dng s t hoc s nhiu. 2.2.4 Doji v xu hng

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S lin quan ca mt doji da trn xu hng trc hoc cc gi trc . Sau mt t tng gi, hoc mt gi trng di, mt doji bo hiu rng p lc mua bt u yu. Sau mt t gim gi hoc mt gi en di, mt doji bo hiu rng p lc bn bt u h bt. Doji ch rng cn cn cung v cu ang tr nn cn bng v mt bin i xu hng sp din ra. Ch ring Doji th khng chng t mt s o chiu v cn phi c thm cc thng tin khc. Sau mt t tng gi, hoc mt gi trng di, mt mt doji bo hiu rng p lc mua bt u yu v xu hng ln c th sp sa kt thc. Gi gim thng l t mt v tr khng c ngi mua, s duy tr p lc mua cn thit gi vng xu hng ln. Do , mt doji c th c ngha hn sau mt xu hng ln hoc mt gi trng di. K c sau khi mt doji hnh thnh, hng xung tip sau cn thit cho vic xc nhn gim gi. Sau mt t gim gi hoc mt gi en di, mt doji ch rng p lc bn c th gim bt v xu hng xung c th sp chm dt. Mc d ngi mua ang bt u mt quyn kim sot gi gim, cn c thm mua mnh xc nh mt o hng. Trc khi chuyn qua cc mu gi o hng, c mt vi nguyn tc chung cn tm hiu. 2.3 Cc mu o hng 2.3.1 Xu hng trc i vi mt mu iu kin coi nh mt mu o hng, cn c mt xu hng trc o hng. o hng tng gi cn mt hng xung trc v o hng gim gi cn mt hng ln trc . 2.3.2 o hng bng di (Long Shadow) C hai cp mu o hng gi n hnh thnh bi mt thn nh, mt bng di v mt bng ngn hoc khng c. Bng di cn di t nht bng hai ln thn, thn c th l trng hoc en. V tr ca bng di v ng thi gi trc quyt nh s phn loi. Cp u tin, ci ba (hammer) v ngi b treo (hanging man), vi mt thn nh v bng di bn di. Cp th hai, sao bng (shooting star) v ba ngc (inverted hammer), vi mt thn nh v bng trn di. ng thi gi trc v thng tin thm na quyt nh bn cht tng gi hoc gim gi ca gi . Ci ba v ba ngc hnh thnh sau mt gim gi v l mu o hng tng gi, trong khi mt sao bng v ngi b treo hnh thnh sau mt tng gi v l mu o hng gim gi. 2.3.3 Hammer and Hanging Man (Ci ba v ngi b treo) Chic ba v ngi b treo hon ton ging nhau, nhng c khc nhau da vo ng thi gi trc . C hai c thn nh (en hoc trng), bng di di v bng trn ngn hoc khng c. Nh vi hu ht vic hnh thnh gi n hoc i, chic ba v ngi b treo cn xc nh ng thi trc Chic ba l mt mu o chiu tng gi m n hnh thnh trong mt xu hng i xung. N c gi nh vy v th trng ang b p xung y. Sau mt t gim gi, chic ba bo hiu mt s hi phc tng gi. Mc thp ca bng di di hm rng ngi bn iu khin gi thp hn trong phin giao dch. Tuy nhin, phn cui mnh ch rng ngi mua ginh li v tr ca h ti cui phin giao dch. Trong khi iu ny dng nh tc ng, chic ba cn thm s xc nh tng gi. Mc thp ca chic ba ch rng hin cn nhiu ngi bn. C thm p lc mua th cn thit trc khi hnh ng. S xc nh iu ny l mt gi trng di. Tiu chun nhn bit :

Bng di khong hai hoc 3 ln thn. Bng trn nh hoc khng c. Thn v tr trn ca cui mt k giao dch Mu ca thn khng quan trng. Ngi b treo l mt mu o hng gim gi m cng c th nh du mt nh hoc mc khng c. To thnh sau mt t tng gi, mt ngi b treo bo hiu rng p lc bn bt u tng. Mc thp ca bng di di xc nhn rng ngi bn y gi xung trong phin giao dch. Mc d ngi mua ginh li v tr (s cn bng) v iu

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khin gi cao hn vo lc cui, s xut hin p lc bn l cn thit cho vic o hng. Nh vi chiu ba, mt ngi b treo cn s xc nhn gim gi trc khi hnh ng. S xc nh chnh l mt gi en di Tiu chun nhn bit :

Mt bng di di khong 2 hoc 3 ln thn. Bng trn nh hoc khng c Thn ti v tr trn ca cui k giao dch Mu ca thn khng quan trng, d vy mt thn en th gi gim hn mt thn trng. 2.3.4 Inverted Hammer and Shooting Star (Ba ngc v sao bng) Mt ba ngc v sao bng ging nh nhau, nhng c khc nhau da vo bn ang trong xu hng xung hay xu hng ln. Gi c thn nh (trng hoc en), bng trn di v bng di khng c hoc ngn. Cc gi ny chng t tim nng o hng, nhng cn s xc nh trc khi giao dch. Sao bng l mt o chiu gim gi, N xy ra trong mt xu hng ln, n ch rng gi m ti mc thp ca n, cng c li v y li xung y. Mt sao bng c th chng t mt tim nng o hng hoc mc khng c. Kt qu gi c mt bng trn di v thn en hoc trng nh. Sau mt t tng gi ln (bng trn), kh nng ca ngi bn y gi xung xut hin. biu th mt o hng ng k, bng tn cn di v t nht bng 2 ln thn. S xc nh gim gi cn thit sau mt sao bng v c th xc nh nh s hnh thnh mt gi en di. Mt ba ngc hon ton ging mt sao bng, nhng xy ra sau mt xu hng xung. Ba ngc ch kh nng ca o hng ca hng xung. Sau mt t gim gi, bng trn di ch p lc mua v gi ng ti mc cao to ra bng trn di. Bi v s tht bi ny, s xc nh tng gi cn thit trc khi giao dch. Mt ba ngc theo sau l mt gi trng di c th thc hin vai tr s xc nh tng gi. CC MU CANDLESTICK

Abandoned Baby: Mt mu o chiu c c im l mt khong trng tip theo sau l mt Doji, vo theo sau na l mt khong trng vi chiu ngc li. Bng ca Doji phi hon ton bn di khong trng hoc bn trn bng ca candle th nht v th ba. Dark Cloud Cover: Mt mu o chiu gim gi sau mt xu hng ln vi mt thn trng di. Gi m ca candle k tip gn bng gi cao ca candle ny v sau ng bn di im gia ca thn candle u. Doji: Doji to thnh khi gi m v gi ng hu nh bng nhau. di ca bng trn v bng di c th khc nhau, v kt qu candle ging nh thnh gi, thnh gi ngc hoc du tr. Doji mang ngha s do d hoc s dn co mnh gia ngi mua v ngi bn. Gi thay i trn v di gi m trong sut phin giao dch nhng ng ti gi m (hoc gn gi m). Downside Tasuki Gap: Mt mu tip tc xu hng vi mt thn en di theo sau l mt thn en vi mt khong trng bn di candle u. Candle th ba l candle trng v gi m nm trong khong thn ca candle th hai, sau ng trong vng khong trng gia candle u v candle th hai, nhng khng ht khong trng. Dragonfly Doji: Mt Doji c gi m v gi ng ngay ti gi cao. Ging nh cc Doji khc, Doji ny thng xut hin ti cc im th trng o chiu.

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Engulfing Pattern: Mt mu o chiu, c th l gim gi hoc tng gi, ty thuc vo n xut hin ti cui xu hng ln (o chiu gim gi) hoc xu hng xung (o chiu tng gi). Candle u c c im l thn nh, theo sau l mt candle c thn hon ton bao trn thn ca candle u. Evening Doji Star: Mt mu o chiu gim gi gm 03 candle tng t mu Evening Star. Xu hng ln tip tc vi mt thn trng di. Candle k tip m cao hn, giao dch trong mt phm vi nh v sau ng ti gi m (Doji). Candle th ba ng bn di im gia ca thn candle u tin. Evening Star: Mt mu o chiu gim gi tip theo ca mt xu hng ln vi mt thn trng di theo sau l mt khong trng v mt candle c thn nh, candle th ba ng bn di im gia ca thn candle u tin. Falling Three Methods: Mt mu tip tc xu hng gim gi. Mt thn en di theo sau l 03 candle c thn nh v cc candle ny hon ton nm trong vng ca gi cao v gi thp ca candle u. Candle th nm ng ti mt gi thp mi.

Gravestone Doji: Mt Doji c gi m v gi ng ngay ti gi thp. Ging nh cc Doji khc, Doji ny thng xut hin ti cc im th trng o chiu.

Hammer: Cc mu hammer to thnh khi gi thay i xung thp hn ng k sau khi m, nhng sau ng cch xa gi thp. K qu l mu candle ging nh cy ko vung vi cy que di. Nu mu candle ny hnh thnh trong t gi tng th n c gi l Hanging Man. Hanging Man: Cc mu hammer to thnh khi gi thay i xung thp hn ng k sau khi m, nhng sau ng cch xa gi thp. K qu l mu candle ging nh cy ko vung vi cy que di. Nu mu candle ny hnh thnh trong t gi gim th n c gi l Hammer.

Harami: Mt mu 02 candle c mt thn nh hon ton nm trong vng ca thn candle u tin v khc mu. y l mt mu o chiu.

Harami Cross: Mt mu 02 candle tng t mu Harami. Khc bit l candle th 2 l mt Doji.

Inverted Hammer: Mt mu o chiu tng gi. Trong mt xu hng xung, gi m thp hn v sau gi giao dch cao hn nhng ng gn bng gi m do trng ging nh mt cy ko ngc.

Long Candle: Mt candle c thn di th hin gi bin ng nhiu.

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Long-Legged Doji: Mu candle ny c bng trn v di di vi Doji nm gia, mu ny th hin r s do d ca trader.

Long Shadows: mu candle vi bng trn di v bng di ngn cho bit rng ngi mua ch ng sut phin giao dch v a ra gi cao hn. Ngc li, mu candle vi bng di di v bng trn ngn cho bit rng ngi bn ch ng sut phin giao dch v iu khin gi thp hn.

Marubozo: Mt mu candle khng c bng.

Morning Doji Star: Mt mu o chiu tng gi 03 candle tng t nh mu Morning Star. Candle u tin nm trong mt xu hng xung c thn en di. Candle k tip m thp hn vi mt Doji c vng giao dch nh. Candle cui ng bn trn im gia ca candle u. Morning Star: Mt mu o chiu tng gi 03 candle bao gm mt candle en di trong xu hng xung, candle th hai ngn nm bn di mt khong trng, v mt candle th ba c thn trng di ng bn trn im gia ca thn candle u. Piercing Line: Mt mu o chiu tng gi 02 candle. Candle u trong mt xu hng gim gi c thn en di. Candle k tip m ti mt gi thp mi v sau ng bn trn im gia ca thn candle u.

Rising Three Methods: Mt mu tip tc tng gi vi mt thn trng di theo sau l 03 candle c thn nh v u nm trong vng gi cao v gi thp ca candle u. Candle th nm ng ti gi cao mi.

Shooting Star: Mu 01 candle c th xut hin trong mt xu hng ln. Gi m cao hn, gi giao dch cao hn nhiu v sau ng gn bng gi m. N c v gn ging mu Inverted Hammer ch khc y l mu o chiu gim gi. Short Candle: Mt candle c thn ngn th hin gi bin ng t Spinning Top: Mu candle c thn nh vi bng trn v bng di di hn thn. Spinning tops bo hiu s do d.

Stick Sandwich: Mt mu o chiu tng gi vi 02 thn en bao quanh mt thn trng. Gi ng ca 02 thn en phi bng nhau. Mt mc h tr r rng v y l mt c hi gi o chiu kh tt.

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Three Black Crows: Mt mu o chiu gim gi gm 03 thn en lin tip v mi candle ng di gi thp ca candle trc v m trong khong thn ca candle trc .

Three White Soldiers: Mt mu o chiu tng gi gm 03 thn trng lin tip c gi ng cao hn. Mi canlde m trong vng thn ca candle trc v ng gn gi cao ca chnh n.

Upside Gap Two Crows: Mt mu gim gi 03 candle v ch xy ra trong mt xu hng ln. Candle u l mt thn trng di theo sau l mt khong trng c to bi mt candle c thn en nh bn trn candle u tin. Candle th 3 cng l mt candle en c thn ln hn candle th 2 v bao ph candle th hai. Gi ng ca candle cui vn bn trn candle u. Upside Tasuki Gap: Mt mu tip tc xu hng vi mt thn trng di theo sau l mt candle c thn trng v to khong trng bn trn candle u. Candle th ba en v m trong vng thn ca candle th hai sau ng trong vng trng gia candle u v candle th hai, nhng khng ht vng trng. Chng III : H tr v khng c, cc ng xu hng, cc knh 3.1 H tr v khng c (Support and Resistance) H tr v khng c l mt trong phn ln cc khi nim c s dng rng ri trong kinh doanh. Mi ngi c ngh da vo u o lng s h tr v khng c. Hy nhn qua hnh c bn u tin Nhn vo lu trn, bn c th thy, mu ch chi ny ang i ln (th trng tng gi). Khi th trng i ln v sau ko tr li, n t n nh cao nht trc khi b ko xung v ta c s khng c. Khi th trng tip tc ln ln na, n t n im thp nht trc khi bt u tr li khi ny ta c s h tr. Bng cch ny s khng c v h tr c hnh thnh lin tc nh khi th trng dao ng theo thi gian. Tri vi trng hp ny ta c xu hng xung. C 02 im quan trng cn ghi nh : 1. Khi th trng tri qua s khng c, s khng c tr thnh h tr. 2. Vng khng c hoc h tr l vng m gi thng c mc khng c hoc h tr nhng khng ph v n. 3.2 ng xu hng ng biu din xu hng hu nh l dng ph bin nht ca phn tch k thut c s dng hin nay. Chng hu nh cng l mt dng khng c s dng ng mc nht. Nu c v ng, chng c th chnh xc nh bt k phng php no khc. Nhng ng tic, phn ln nhng ngi kinh doanh khng v ng hoc h c lm cho ng hp vi th trng thay cho mt hng khc. Trong dng c bn nht, mt ng ln c v t y ca vng h tr (khe) c th nhn bit d dng. Trong mt hng xung, ng xu hng c v t nh ca vng khng c (nh). 3.3 Knh (Channels) Nu chng ta bc thm mt bc v l thuyt ng xu hng v v mt ng song song c cng gc ca ng ln hoc xung, chng ta s to ra mt knh.

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to mt knh ln, n gin v mt ng song song c cng gc vi ng hng ln v sau di ng n v tr chm nh gn . iu ny nn c thc hin cng lc vi to ng xu hng. to mt knh xung, v mt ng song song c cng gc vi ng xung v sau di ng ti v tr chm y gn nht. iu ny nn c thc hin cng lc vi to ng xu hng. Khi gi chm ng xu hng di c th c s dng nh vng mua. Khi gi chm ng xu hng trn c th s dng nh mt vng bn. Chng IV : Fibonacci Chng ta s s dng t s Fibonacci nhiu trong kinh doanh v vy chng ta hy hc v quan tm n n. Fibonacci l mt ch ln v c nhiu ti nghin cu khc nhau v Fibonacci vi cc tn gi khc thng nhng chng ta s ch khi qut vi im c trng. Nhng ai l Fibonacci v lm sao c th gip bn kinh doanh? Leonardo Fibonacci l mt nh ton hc v i ngi , ng sng th k 13, ngi u tin ch cc t s ca mt dy s c xem nh m t cc t l tng quan t nhin gia cc s vt trong v tr, bao gm d liu gi c. T l xut hin t mt dy s sau : 1, 2, 3, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144 (s sau bng tng 02 s lin trc). Sau mt vi s u theo trnh t, nu bn o t s ca bt k mt s vi s k tip cao hn bn c 0.618, v d 34 chia 55 bng 0.618. Nu bn o t s gia cc s xen k bn c 0.382, v d 34 : 89 = 0.382 v iu gn nh gii thch chng s tip tc nh th no. Nu bn chia mt s Fibonacci bt k vi s trc, sau 2 s lun lun l 1.6 v sau 144 s lun lun l 1.618 Cc t s ny c coi l ngha vng. Cc t s thm vo c tm thy to cc b t s nh sau : Price Retracement Levels (Cc mc thoi lui) 0.236, 0.382, 0.500, 0.618, 0.764 Price Extension Levels (Cc mc m rng) 0, 0.382, 0.618, 1.000, 1.382, 1.618 Bn s khng tht s cn bit lm th no tnh tt c cc s ny. Phn mm th ca bn s lm iu ny cho bn. Nhng s tt nu bit r l thuyt c bn ng sau cng c v bn s c kin thc khc ghi. B t s u tin c s dng nh cc mc thoi lui gi v c dng trong kinh doanh nh cc mc h tr v khng c. Nhng ngi kinh doanh trn ton th gii xem cc mc ny v t cc lnh mua v bn ti cc mc m n tr thnh mt s mong i t hon thnh. B t s th hai c s dng nh cc mc m rng gi v c s dng nh cc mc thu li. Mt ln na, nhng ngi kinh doanh trn ton th gii xem cc mc ny v t cc lnh mua v bn thu li ti cc mc m n tr thnh s mong i t hon thnh (thi hnh). Phn ln cc phn mm th c c cc mc Fibonacci Retracement v Price Extension. p dng cc mc Fibonacci cho cc biu gi, cn thit xc nh Swing Highs v Swing Lows. Mt Swing High l mt thanh cao ngn hn vi t nht hai mc cao trn c tri v phi ca thanh cao u thp hn n. Mt Swing Low l mt thanh thp ngn hn vi t nht 02 mc thp trn c tri v phi ca thanh thp u cao hn n. 4.1 Fibonacci Retracement Levels (Cc mc thoi lui Fibonacci) Trong mt xu hng ln, quan nim chung l i theo th trng da vo vic thoi lui n mt mc h tr Fibonacci. tm mc thoi lui, bn s nhp vo mt Swing Low ng k (quan trng) v li con tr ti mt Swing High mi

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nht. iu ny s biu din mi mt mc thoi lui hin th c t s v mc gi tng ng. Hy nhn qua mt vi v d v th trng hng ln. Cch v cc mc thoi lui Fibonacci trn th : Di y l mt th theo gi ca USD/JPY. y chng ta v cc mc thoi lui bng cch nhp vo Swing Low ti 110.78 vo ngy 12/07/05 v li con tr ti Swing High ti 112.27 vo ngy 13/07/05. Bn c th nhn thy cc mc c v bi phn mm. Cc mc thoi lui l 111.92 (0.236), 111.70 (0.382), 111.52 (0.500) v 111.35 (0.618). By gi s mong i l nu U/J thoi lui t mc cao ny, n s tm thy s h tr ti mt trong cc mc Fibonacci bi v nhng ngi kinh doanh s t lnh mua ti cc mc ny khi th trng ko tr li. By gi hy nhn xem din bin thc s sau khi Swing High xy ra. Th trng ko tr li qua ng mc 0.236 v tip tc chc thng mc 0.382 vo ngy k tip nhng khng bao gi ng thc s bn di n. Cui ngy , th trng hi phc li hng ln ca n. R rng vic mua ti mc 0.382 s c mt giao dch ngn hn thnh cng. By gi hy xem lm th no chng ta s s dng cc mc thoi lui Fibonacci trong mt xu hng xung. y l mt biu theo gi cho EUR/USD. Nh bn c th thy, chng ta pht hin Swing High ti 1.3278 vo ngy 28/02/05 v Swing Low ti 1.3169 hai gi sau . Cc mc thoi lui l 1.3236 (0.618), 1.3224 (0.500), 1.3211 (0.382) v 1.3195 (0.236). S mong i i vi xu hng xung l n thoi lui t mc cao ny, n s chm trn s khng c ti mt trong cc mc Fibonacci bi v nhng ngi kinh doanh s t lnh bn ti cc mc ny khi th trng c gng ph mc phc hi. Hy kim traci g xy ra tip. By gi khng cn tt p. Th trng c gng cng c li (hi phc) nhng n ch va vt qua mc 0.382 m ti mc cao 1.3227 v n thc s ng di n. Sau thanh , bn c th thy rng s hi phc o chiu v hng xung tip tc. Bn nn thc hin bn ti mc 0.382 y l mt v d khc. y l mt th theo gi cho GBP/USD. Chng ta c mt Swing High 1.7438 vo ngy 26/07/05 v mt Swing Low 1.7336 vo ngy k tip. Nh vy cc mc thoi lui ca chng ta l : 1.7399 (0.618), 1.7387 (0.500), 1.7375 (0.382) v 1.7360 (0.236). Nhn vo th, th trng trng nh n c gng ph v mc 0.500 trong vi thi im nhng tht bi. V vy t lnh bn ti mc 0.500 l mt giao dch thnh cng. Nu bn thc hin, bn s mt vi ming cc k bo b! Hy nhn xem ci g xy ra. Swing Low mong i l y ca xu hng xung, th trng hi phc bn trn im Swing High. Bn c th thy t v d ny th trng thng tm thy t nht s h tr (trong xu hng ln) hoc s khng c tm thi (trong xu hng xung) ti cc mc thoi lui Fibonacci. R rng l c mt vi vn quan tm y. Khng c cch no bit mc s cung cp s h tr. Mc 0.236 dng nh a ra s h tr hoc khng c yu nht, trong kh cc mc khc a ra s h tr/ khng c gn nh cng tn sut. Cho d l cc th trn biu din th trng thng ch thoi lui ti mc 0.382, n khng c ngha mi ln gi s chm mc v o hng. i khi n s chm mc 0.500 v o hng, nhng ln khc n s chm mc 0.618 v o hng, v nhng ln khc na gi s b qua tt c cc mc Fibonacci v bay qua tt c cc mc ny. Hy nh rng, th trng s khng lun lun hi phc li xu hng ln ca n sau khi t n mc h tr tm thi, nhng thay vo tip tc suy gim di mc Swing Low cui cng. Tng t vi xu hng gim. Th trng c th thay v tip tc trn mc Swing High cui cng. Vic thay i cc im dng l mt s thch . C th tt nht l t im dng di Swing Low sau cng (trn xu hng tng) hoc trn Swing High (trn xu hng gim), nhng iu ny cn chu mc mo him cao tng ng vi tim nng li nhun trong kinh doanh. Mt vn khc l xc nh cc im Swing Low v Swing High bt u t to cc mc thoi lui Fibonacci. Mi ngi nhn vo th khc nhau v v vy s c cc im Swing Low v Swing High ca ring mnh. 4.2 Fibonacci Price Extension Levels (Cc mc m rng Fibonacci) Trong mt xu hng ln, quan im chung l thu li nhun trn cc giao dch mua ti cc mc m rng gi Fibonacci. Bn xc nh cc mc m rng bng cch s dng 03 click chut. Trc tin, nhp vo mt Swing Low ng k, sau r con tr v click trn Swing High mi nht. Cui cng, r con tr xung tr li v nhp trn Swing Low thoi lui. iu ny s hin th cc mc m rng gi ch ra c t s v cc mc gi tng ng. Cch v cc mc m rng Fibonacci trn th :

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Trn biu USD/CHF 1-gi, chng ta v cc mc m rng bng cch nhp trn Swing Low ti 1.2447 ngy 14/08/05 v r tr n Swing High ti 1.2593 ngy 15/08/15 v sau ko xung ti mc thoi lui Swing Low 1.2541 ngy 15/08/05. Cc mc m rng Fibonacci c to ra l 1.2597 (0.382), 1.2631 (0.618), 1.2687 (1.000), 1.2743 (1.382), 1.2760 (1.500), v 1.2777 (1.1618). By gi hy nhn xem iu g thc s xy ra sau khi mc thoi lui Swing Low xy ra.

Th trng hi phc n mc 0.500 gim xung tr li mc thoi lui Swing Low sau hi phc tr ln mc 0.500 gim nh tr li hi phc n mc 0.618 xung tr li mc 0.382 l mc h tr sau hi phc ln n mc 1.382 cng c mt cht sau hi phc ti mc 1.500 Bn c th nhn thy t cc v d ny l th trng thng tm thy s khng c tm thi ti cc mc m rng Fibonacci, khng phi l lun lun nhng thng xy ra. Nh trong cc v d v cc mc thoi lui, nn ni r rng c mt vi vn cn bn y. Trc tin, khng c cch bit mc s cung cp s khng c. Mc 0.500 l mt mc tt thu v cc giao dch long (mua) bt k trong v d trn v th trng thoi lui tr li mc ban u ca n, nhng nu bn ng giao dch, bn s b mt nhiu li nhun. Mt vn khc l vic cc nh Swing Low bt u t ti cc mc Fibonacci. Mt cch l t Swing Low cui cng nh chng ta lm trong v d; mt cch khc l t Swing Low thp nhp ca 30 thanh (bar) trc . Mt ln na, khng ch c 1 cch xc nh im ny, v v vy n tr thnh mt tr suy on. c ri, hy nhn xem cc mc m rng Fibonacci c th c s dng trong mt xu hng xung. Trong mt xu hng xung, ngh chung l thu li trn mt giao dch bn ti mt mc m rng gi Fibonacci v th trng thng tm thy s h tr tm thi ti cc mc ny. Trn biu EUR/USD ny, chng ta v cc mc m rng Fibonacci bng cch nhp trn Swing High ti 1.2137 ngy 15/07/2005 v r con tr ti Swing Low ti 1.2021 ngy 15/08/05 v sau ko xung mc thoi lui cao 1.2085. Cc mc m rng c to l 1.2041 (0.382), 1.2027 (0.500), 1.2013 (0.618), 1.1969 (1.000), 1.1925 (1.382), 1.1911 (1.500) v 1.1897 (1.618). By gi hy nhn xem iu g thc s xy ra sau khi mc thoi lui Swing Low xy ra.

Th trng gim xung hu nh ti mc 0.382 v t n mc h tr Th trng sau giao dch cn bng gia mc thoi lui Swing High v mc 0.382 Cui cng, th trng ph v qua mc 0.382 v ngng li trn mc 0.500 Sau n ph v mc 0.500 v xung n mc 1.000 Mt mnh cc mc Fibonacci s khng lm cho bn giu. Tuy nhin, cc mc Fibonacci chc chn hu dng nh l mt phn ca phng thc giao dch hiu qu m n bao gm cc k thut v phn tch khc. Bn thy , cha kha ti mt h thng giao dch hiu qu l kt hp mt s cng c phn tch c p dng. Tt c nhng ngi kinh doanh bit cch s dng v phi hp cc cng c phn tch (bao gm c Fibonacci) to ra s khc nhau. Bi hc ny v cc mc Fibonacci c th l mt cng c hu ch, nhng khng bao gi giao dch ch da vo mt mnh cc mc Fibonacci. Tm tt :

Cc Cc Cc Cc

mc mc mc mc

thoi lui Fibonacci l 0.236, 0.382, 0.500, 0.618, 0.764 thoi lui Fibonacci c s dng nh cc mc h tr v khng c m rng Fibonacci l 0, 0.382, 0.618, 1.000, 1.382, 1.618 m rng Fibonacci c s dng nh cc mc thu li

Phn ln mi ngi b l c hi bi v n phi c xem xt trn ton din.

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Chng V : ng trung bnh (Moving Averages) Mt ng trung bnh l cch lm phng hot ng bin ng gi theo thi gian. Ngha l bn ly gi tr trung bnh ca gi ng trong mt khong thi gian x. Ging nh mi cng c, n c s dng h tr chng ta tin on gi trong tng lai. Nhn vo dc ca ng trung bnh bn c th on gi s bin i nh th no. Nh ti ni, ng trung bnh lm phng hot ng ca gi. C nhiu kiu ng trung bnh khc nhau, v mi kiu c cc mc lm phng ring. Ni chung, ng trung bnh phng hn th phn nh s bin ng gi chm hn. ng trung bnh nhp nh hn th phn nh s bin ng gi nhanh hn. Ti s gii thch u v khuyt ca mi kiu sau, by gi hy nhn xem cc kiu ng trung bnh khc nhau v chng c tnh bng cch no. 5.1 ng trung bnh n gin (Simple Moving Average - SMA) Mt ng trung bnh n gin l kiu ng trung bnh n gin nht. Mt cch c bn, mt ng trung bnh n gin c tnh bng cch tnh tng cc gi ng trong s khong thi gian x v chia cho x. C lm ln khng? Cho php ti gii thch. Nu bn v mt ng trung bnh n gin cho s khong thi gian l 5 trn mt biu 1 gi, bn s cng gi ng ca 5 gi v chia cho 5 v nh vy bn c mt ng trung bnh n gin. Nu bn v ng trung bnh n gin cho khong thi gian l 5 trn mt biu 10 pht, bn s cng gi ng ca 50 pht v sau chia cho 5. Hu ht cc cng c v th s thc hin tt c vic tnh ton cho bn. Chng ta phi bit cch tnh ton mt ng trung bnh n gin bi v iu ny quan trng bn hiu cc mt ng trung bnh c tnh ton. Nu bn hiu cch mi ng trung bnh c tnh ton, bn c th a ra quyt nh ca ring bn nn chn kiu no th tt hn. Ging nh bt k cng c khc, cc ng trung bnh hot ng nh mt b delay (lm tr). Bi v bn ang ly gi tr trung bnh ca gi, bn thc s ch ang xem d bo gi tng lai v khng phi l mt ci nhn chc chn ca tng lai. y l mt v d v cch cc ng trung bnh lm phng hot ng gi c. Trn th trn, bn c th thy 03 ng SMA khc nhau. Nh bn nhn thy, ng SMA cho khong thi gian di hn l ng chm tr hn so vi gi. Ch rng ng 62SMA cch xa hn gi hin thi so vi cc ng 30 v 5 SMA. Bi v vi ng 62 SMA bn tnh tng gi ng ca 62 khong thi gian v chia cho 62. Vic bn s dng s khong thi gian cao hn lm vic phn nh s bin ng gi chm hn. ng SMA trong th ny hin th cho bn cm nhn chung v th trng theo thi gian. Thay v ch nhn vo gi hin ti ca th trng, ng trung bnh cho chng ta mt cc nhn rng hn v chng ta c th a ra d on gi tng lai. 5.2 ng trung bnh ly tha (Exponential Moving Average - EMA) Mc d ng SMA l mt cng c tuyt vi nhng c mt im khuyt ln. ng SMA rt d b v hiu ha. Hy ti a mt v d v iu ny : Chng ta v mt ng SMA vi thi gian l 5 trn th ngy ca EUR/USD v cc gi ng ca 5 ngy va qua nh sau : Day 1: 1.2345 Day 2: 1.2350 Day 3: 1.2360 Day 4: 1.2365 Day 5: 1.2370 ng SMA s c tnh nh sau : (1.2345+1.2350+1.2360+1.2365+1.2370)/5= 1.2358

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chnh xc khng? vic g nu gi ngy th 2 l 1.2300? Kt qu ca ng SMA s thp hn mt t v iu ny mang n cho bn ngh gi ang i xung, trong khi thc t ngy 2 c th ch l mt s kin ti mt thi gian. Vi iu ny, ti ang c gng ni rng i khi ng SMA c th qu n gin. Nu c mt cch khc bn c th loi b xung nhn bn s khng sai lm. C mt cch, n c gi l ng trung bnh ly tha (EMA) ng EMA chu nh hng nhiu hn i vi cc khong thi gian mi nht. Trong v d trn, ng EMA s t nng vo ngy 3 n ngy 5, ngha l xung nhn ca ngy 2 s t gi tr hn v s khng nh hng ng trung bnh nhiu. ng EMA ch trng hn vo hnh ng hin gi ca nhng ngi giao dch. Khi giao dch, nhn xem nhng ngi giao dch ang lm g quan trng hn l xem h lm g trong tun qua hoc thng qua. 5.3 Ci no tt hn : SMA hay EMA? Trc tin hy bt u vi mt ng EMA. Khi bn mun mt ng trung bnh phn nh hot ng gi nhanh hn th mt ng EMA vi s khong thi gian ngn l cch tt nht. iu ny c th gip bn nm bt xu hng gi rt sm v kt qu l li nhun cao hn. Thc vy, bn nm bt mt xu hng sm hn, bn c th giao dch trn xu hng di hn v thu vo nhiu li nhun! Mt tri i vi mt ng trung bnh bin ng nhp nh l bn c th b nh la, bi v ng trung bnh phn nh qu nhanh i vi gi c v bn c th ngh rng mt xu hng mi ang hnh thnh nhng thc t n c th ch l mt xung nhn. Vi mt ng SMA, khi bn mun mt ng trung bnh phng hn v phn nh chm hn hot ng gi c, th mt SMA vi s khong thi gian di hn l cch tt nht. Mc d n chm phn nh hot ng gi, n s gip bn khng b sai lm. Mt tri l n c th lm bn qu chm v bn c th l mt mt c hi giao dch tt. SMA EMA Hin th mt th loi tr cc du Bin ng nhanh, tt hin th hiu gi cc o gi va xy ra Bin i chm, iu ny c th D a ra cc du hiu gi hn v mang n cc bo hiu mua hoc a ra cc bo hiu sai lm. bn tr

u: Khuyt:

Vy th ci no tt hn? Tht kh bn quyt nh. Nhiu ngi giao dch v nhiu ng trung bnh khc nhau c mt ci nhn tng qut. H c th s dng ng SMA vi s khong thi gian di tm xu hng bao qut v sau s dng ng EMA vi s khong thi gian ngn xc nh thi im tt giao dch. Thc t, nhiu h thng giao dch c xy dng da trn Cc giao cho ng trung bnh. Sau phn ny, chng ta s xem mt v d v cch s dng cc ng trung bnh nh l mt phn ca h thng giao dch. Tm tt:

lm g. qua.

Mt ng trung bnh l cch lm phng hot ng gi c C nhiu kiu ng trung bnh. Hai kiu thng dng nht l SMA v EMA SMA l dng ng trung bnh n gin nht, nhng d b nh hng (tn thng) i vi cc xung nhn. ng EMA t nng i vi gi mi xy ra v do ch cho chng ta thy nhng ngi giao dch hin ang Bit c nhng ngi giao dch hin ang lm g quan trng hn l bit h lm g tun qua hoc thng Cc ng SMA phng hn so vi cc ng EMA Cc ng trung bnh vi s khong thi gian di hn th phng hn so vi s khong thi gian ngn Cc ng trung bnh nhp nh th phn nh hot ng gi nhanh hn v c th nm bt cc xu hng sm. Tuy nhin, bi v chng phn nh nhanh nn chng c th d b nh hng i vi cc xung v c th nh la bn. Cc ng trung bnh phng phn nh hot ng gi chm hn nhng s gip bn trnh cc xung v khng sai lm. Tuy nhin, bi v chng phn nh chm nn c th lm bn giao dch chm v b l cc c hi tt. Cch tt nht s dng cc ng trung bnh l v nhiu kiu khc nhau trn mt th bn c th thy c bin i theo khong thi gian di v bin i theo khong thi gian ngn. Chng VI : Cc cng c d bo biu thng dng (Chart Indicators)

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Ci g l hp cng c ca nhng ngi giao dch? n gin thi, hp cng c ca bn l ci bn s s dng xy dng ti khon giao dch ca bn. i vi bi ny, bn hc cc cng c d bo (indicator, sau y ch gi n gin l cc cng c). Bn c th khng cn thit s dng tt c cc cng c ny, nhng n vn tt bn c ci la chn. Hy bt u. 6.1 Bollinger Bands Di bng Bollinger c s dng o s bt n nh ca th trng. Cng c ny cho bn bit th trng yn lng hay si ng! Khi th trng yn lng, di bng co hp li; v khi th trng si ng di bng rng ra. Ch trn th bn di khi gi ng yn di bng gn nh st li vi nhau, nhng khi gi tng di bng tri rng ra. l tt c nhng g chng ta c. Vng, ti c th tip tc v quy ry bn vi lch s ca di bng Bollinger, cch tnh n, cc cng thc ton ng sau n v tip na, nhng ti thc s khng mun a ra thm. Ti ngh rng iu quan trng l phi ch cho bn cch ng dng cc di bng Bollinger vo giao dch ca bn. Ghi ch : nu bn thc s mun hc v cch tnh ton di bng Bollinger bn c th vo trang www.bollingerbands.com 6.1.1 The Bollinger Bounce iu u tin bn nn bit v cc di bng Bollinger l gi c khuynh hng quay tr li gia di bng. y l ton b ngha ca Bollinger bounce. i vi trng hp ny, nhn vo th trn bn c th cho bit gi sp ti nh th no? Nu bn tr li l xung th bn ng! Nh bn thy, gi xung tr li vng gia di bng. l tt c nhng g chng ta c. Ci bn va thy l mt ng Bollinger bounce kinh in. Cc di bng Bollinger hot ng nh cc mc h tr v khng c nh. i vi khung thi gian di, cc di bng s mnh hn. Nhiu ngi giao dch pht trin h thng da trn cc bounce pht t. Chin thut ny c s dng tt nht khi th trng ang ln xung gia 02 mc v khng c xu hng r rng. By gi hy xem cch s dng di bng Bollinger khi th trng hnh thnh xu hng. 6.1.2 Bollinger Squeeze Tn Bollinger squeeze (p li) t n cng gii thch kh r. Khi cc di bng p li vi nhau, n thng c ngha l mt c ph v sp xy ra. Nu gi bt u vt khi di bng trn th hng bin i s thng l tng. Nu gi bt u vt khi di bng di th hng bin i s thng l tip tc i xung. Nhn trn th trn, bn c th nhn thy cc di bng p st li nhau. Gi bt u vt khi di bng bn trn. Da vo thng tin ny bn ngh gi s c bin i nh th no? Nu bn tr li tng th bn ng. y l cch mt Bollinger Squeeze tiu biu lm vic. Chin thut ny c thit k bn c kh nm bt c mt bin i sm. Dng ny khng xy ra hng ngy, nhng bn c th pht hin ra chng vi ln mt tun nu bn xem th 15 pht. By gi bn bit cc Di bng Bollinger l g, v bn bit cch s dng chng. C nhiu iu khc bn c th thc hin vi Bollinger Bands, nhng c 02 chin thut ph bin nht. V by gi bn c thm mt cng c, chng ta c th chuyn sang mt cng c khc. 6.2 MACD MACD l mt vit tt ca Moving Average Convergence Divergence (Trung bnh bin i phn k hi t). Cng c ny c s dng xc nh cc trung bnh bin i cho bit mt xu hng mi, tng gi hay gim gi. Sau tt c, u tin s mt ca chng ta trong giao dch l c th tm ra xu hng bi v vic ny lm ra tin. Vi th MACD, bn s thng thy c 03 thng s c s dng ci t n. u tin l s khong thi gian dng tnh trung bnh bin i nhanh, th hai l s khong thi gian c dng trong trung bnh bin i chm, v th ba l s thanh c s dng tnh trung bnh bin i ca sai bit gia cc ng trung bnh bin i nhanh v ng trung bnh bin i chm.

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V d nu bn c cc thng s MACD l 12, 26, 9 (thng l gi tr ngm nh cho th), chng ta hiu nh sau : 1. S 12 i din cho 12 thanh trc ca ng trung bnh bin i nhanh 2. S 26 i din cho 26 thanh trc ca ng trung bnh bin i chm 3. S 9 i din cho 9 thanh trc ca sai bit gia 02 ng trung bnh bin i. iu ny c v bi cc ng vch ng gi l mt histogram (cc ng xanh trong biu trn) C mt quan nim sai lm chung i vi cc ng ca th MACD. Hai ng k c v khng l ng trung bnh bin i ca gi. Thay vo , chng l cc ng trung bnh bin i ca SAI BIT gia hai ng trung bnh bin i. Trong v d trn, ng trung bnh bin i nhanh hn l ng trung bnh bin i ca sai bit gia ng trung bnh bin i 12 v 26. ng trung bnh bin i chm hn v gi tr trung bnh ca ng MACD trc. Mt ln na, i vi v d trn, l ng trung bnh bin i vi s khong thi gian l 9. Ngha l chng ta ang ni ti gi tr trung bnh ca 9 thi on trc ca ng MACD nhanh v v n thnh ng trung bnh bin i chm hn. iu ny lm phng ng ban u hn v cho chng ta mt ng chnh xc hn. Histogram v s sai bit gia ng trung bnh nhanh v ng trung bnh chm. Nu bn nhn biu gc ban u, bn c th thy rng 02 ng trung bnh tch bit, histogram ln hn. iu ny c gi l s phn k (divergence) bi v ng trung bnh bin i nhanh th phn k hoc di chuyn tch xa ng trung bnh bin i chm. Khi cc ng trung bnh bin i tin li gn nhau th histogram nh hn. iu ny gi l hi t (convergence) bi v ng trung bnh bin i nhanh tin gn li ng trung bnh bin i chm. V nh vy chng ta c tn gi MACD. 6.2.1 MACD giao nhau Bi v c 02 ng trung bnh bin i vi tc khc nhau, ng nhanh hn hin nhin s phn nh bin i gi nhanh hn vi ng chm. Khi mt xu hng mi xy ra, ng nhanh hn s phn nh trc tin v cui cng l ct qua ng chm. Khi 02 ng cho nhau v ng nhanh bt u tch xa ng chm mt xu hng mi hnh thnh. T th trn, bn c th thy rng ng nhanh ct ngang bn di ng chm v ch mt hng xung mi. Ch rng khi cc ng giao nhau histogram tm thi bin mt. iu ny xy ra v s sai bit gia cc ng lc ny l 0. Khi hng xung hnh thnh v ng nhanh tch xa ng chm, histogram ln hn, iu ny cho bit mt xu hng mnh. C mt hn ch i vi ng MACD. Cc ng trung bnh bin i c khuynh hng chm so vi gi. Tuy nhin, n vn l mt cng c c a thch nht. 6.3 Parabolic SAR T trn ti gi, chng ta xem cc cng c ch yu nhm bt c thi im bt u mt xu hng mi. Vic xc im mt xu hng mi l quan trng, v quan trng khng km l c th xc nh im kt thc ca mt xu hng. Mt cng c c th gip chng ta xc nh im kt thc mt xu hng l Parabolic SAR( Stop And Reversal, ngng v o hng). Mt Parabolic SAR v cc chm trn th ch kh nng o hng ca gi. T th trn, bn c th thy rng cc im chuyn t bn di cc gi trong xu hng ln, ln bn trn cc gi khi xu hng chuyn sang hng xung. 6.3.1 S dng Parabolic SAR iu tt p v ng Parabolic SAR l s dng rt n gin. Khi cc im bn di cc gi n l tn hiu mua; v khi cc im bn trn cc gi n l tn hiu bn. y c l l cng c d hiu nht bi v n cho bit c gi ang tng hay gim. Cng c ny ny c s dng tt nht trong cc th trng c xu hng hi phc hoc gim di. Bn ng s dng cng c ny trong th trng ln xung lin tc, ni m gi bin ng ngang. 6.4 Stochastics Stochastic l mt cng c khc h tr chng ta xc nh im m mt xu hng c th kt thc. Stochastic l mt oscillator (cng c to dao ng) o cc trng thi mua vt (overbought) v bn vt (oversold) trong th trng. Hai ng tng t cc ng MACD v ngha mt ng nhanh hn ng cn li.

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6.4.1 Cch p dng ng Stochastic Nh ti ni, ng Stochastic ch cho chng ta thi im th trng bn vt hoc mua vt. Cc ng Stochastic c chia t 0 n 100. Khi cc ng stochastic bn trn 70 (ng chm trong th trn) th c ngha l th trng mua vt. Khi cc ng stochastic bn di 30 (ng chm xanh) th c ngha l th trng bn vt. Nh qui lut, chng ta mua khi th trng bn vt v bn khi th trng mua vt Nhn vo th trn, bn c th nhn thy rng cc ng stochastic hin th cc trng thi mua vt kh nhiu ln. Da vo thng tin ny, bn c th on gi s din bin tip ra sao? Nu bn ni rng gi s xung th bn hon ton ng. Bi v th trng bn vt trong mt khong thi gian di, mt gii hn o chiu xy ra. l dng c bn ca Stochastics. Nhiu ngi giao dch s dng cc ng stochastic bng cc cch khc nhau, nhng mc ch chnh ca cng c ny l ch cho chng ta v tr th trng mua vt hoc bn vt. 6.5 Relative Strength Index -RSI (ch s sc mnh tng i) Ch s sc mnh tng i (RSI) tng t nh ng Stochastic, n nhn bit cc trng thi mua vt v bn vt trong th trng. N cng c chia t 0 n 100. i vi th ny, di 20 ch bn vt trong khi trn 80 ch mua vt. 6.5.1 S dng RSI RSI c th c s dng ging nh Stochastic. T th trn bn c th thy l khi RSI xung di 20 n nhn bit mt th trng bn vt. Sau khi gim, gi nhanh chng tng tr li. RSI l mt cng c rt thng dng bi v n cng c th c s dng xc nh s hnh thnh mt xu hng. Nu bn ngh rng mt xu hng ang c hnh thnh, hy lt qua RSI v xem n trn hay di 50. Nu bn ang mong i mt xu hng tng gi th hy m bo RSI trn 50. Nu bn ang mong i mt xu hng gim gi th hy chc chn l RSI di 50. Trong th trn, bn c th thy mt xu hng tng gi tim nng ang to thnh. trnh b nh la, bn c th i cho RSI vt qua trn 50 xc nh xu hng ca bn. Khi RSI vt qua trn 50, l mt xc nhn tt l mt hng ln thc s hnh thnh. 6.6 Kt hp cc indicator vi nhau : Trong mt th gii hon ho, chng ta c th ch ly mt trong cc cng c trn v giao dch hon ton da vo cc cng c. Vn l chng ta khng sng trong mt th gii hon ho v mi mt cng c khng t mc hon ho. l ti sao nhiu ngi giao dch kt hp cc cng c khc nhau chng c th kim tra ln nhau. H c th c 03 cng c khc nhau v h s khng giao dch nu c 03 cng c khng cho cng kt qu. Khi bn tin hnh giao dch, bn s tm ra cc cng c tt nht cho bn. Ti c th bo vi bn l ti thch s dng MACD, Stochastics v RSI, nhng bn c th c s thch khc. Mi ngi giao dch c gng tm s kt hp hon ho cc cng c s lun lun cho h cc tn hiu ng, nhng s tht l khng c iu . Bn hy hc cc cng c cho n khi bn hiu chnh xc cch n phn nh bin ng gi v tin ti to s kt hp ca ring bn sao cho ph hp vi cch thc giao dch ca bn. Sau bi ny, ti s ch bn mt h thng kt hp cc cng c khc nhau mang n cho bn mt khi nim v cch c th kt hp cc cng c vi nhau. Tm tt :

Nhng g bn hc s cung cp thm cng c cho bn. Cc cng c ca bn s gip bn xy dng ti khon giao dch ca mnh d dng hn.

o o

Bollinger Bands (Di bng Bollinger) : c s dng o bt n nh ca th trng Chng hot ng ging nh cc mc h tr v khng c nh

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o
bng Bollinger

Bollinger Bounce Mt chin thut da trn quan im l gi c khuynh hng lun lun tr li gia hai di Bn mua khi gi chm di bng bn di Bn bn khi gi chm di bng bn trn S dng tt nht trong cc th trng ngang Bollinger Squeeze Mt chin thut c s dng nm bt sm cc c ph v ca th trng Khi cc ng Bollinger p gi li c ngha l th trng rt yn lng v mt c ph v th qu tt. Khi mt c ph v xy ra, chng ta thc hin giao dch da hng ph v ca th trng.

o o o o

MACD c s dng nm sm cc xu hng v cng h tr chng ta cc im o hng. MACD bao gm 02 ng trung bnh bin i (1 nhanh, 1 chm) v cc ng ng gi l histogram hin th sai bit gia 02 ng trung bnh bin i. Ngc vi suy ngh ca nhiu ngi, cc ng trung bnh bin i khng phi l cc ng trung bnh bin i ca gi. Chng l cc ng trung bnh bin i ca cc ng trung bnh bin i khc. Mt cch s dng MACD l i cho ng nhanh ct cho ng chm v tin hnh giao dch theo bi v n bo hiu mt xu hng mi.

o o o o o

Parabolic SAR Cng c ny dng v cc im o hng; v vy c tn Parabolic SAR (Stop And Reversal, dng v o hng) y l cng c d hiu nht bi v n ch a ra tn hiu tng v gim gi. Khi cc im trn cc gi , l tn hiu bn Khi cc im bn di gi , l tn hiu mua Cng c ny c s dng tt nht trong cc th trng c xu hng ln v xung nhiu.

o o o

Stochastics c s dng nhn bit cc trng thi mua vt hoc bn vt Khi cc ng trung bnh trn 70 ngha l th trng ang mua vt v bn nn bn. Khi cc ng trung bnh di 30 ngha l th trng ang bn vt v bn nn mua.

o o o o

Relative Strength Index (RSI) Tng t nh stochastics, RSI cng nhn bit cc trng thi mua vt v bn vt Khi RSI trn 80 ngha l th trng mua vt v bn nn bn Khi RSI di 20 ngha l th trng bn vt v bn nn mua RSI cng c s dng xc nh s hnh thnh xu hng. Nu bn ngh mt xu hng ang hnh thnh, hy i cho RSI vt qua 50 hoc gim xung di 50 (ty thuc vo bn ang ch xu hng ln hay xung) trc khi thc hin giao dch.

Mi cng c c khim khuyt ca n. V vy nhng ngi giao dch phi kt hp nhiu cng c khc nhau kim chng ln nhau. Khi bn tin thm na thng qua vic giao dch, bn s hc cc cng c m bn thch nht v c th kt hp chng theo cch ring ph hp vi cch giao dch ca bn. Ti bit bi hc ny qu di v ti khuyn bn hy c tr li nhng g bn cha hiu y . i khi ch mt mt t thi gian c trc khi bn thc s thu hiu mt iu g . Khi bn hiu cc khi nim v cc cng c ny, hy xem mt th v bt u thc hnh vi n. Hy hc cch mi mt cng c phn nh ng thi ca gi.

Khi bn am hiu thng sut mt cng c, n s tr thnh mt cng c hu ch cho vic giao dch ca bn. By gi hy ngh gii lao.

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Chng VII : Oscillators v Momentum Indicators Chng ta lt qua nhiu cng c gip bn phn tch th v nhn bit cc xu hng. Trong thc t, by gi c l bn c qu nhiu thng tin s dng mt cch hiu qu. Trong bi ny, chng ta s tip tc xem bn s dng cc cng c th ny. Chng ti mun bn am hiu thng sut cc mt mnh v yu ca mi cng c nh bn c th quyt nh chn cng c no s dng v s dng nh th no. 7.1 Cc cng c bo sm (Leading Indicator) v bo tr (Lagging Indicator) Hy tho lun mt s khi nim trc tin. C 02 loi cng c : bo hu sm (leading) v bo hiu tr (lagging). Mt cng c bo hiu sm a ra tn hiu mua trc khi mt xu hng mi hoc mt o hng xy ra. Mt cng c bo hiu tr a ra tn hiu sau khi xu hng bt u v thng bo vi bn ny, ch , xu hng bt u, bn ang l mt chuyn . Bn c th ang ngh rng , ti s giu c nh vo cc cng c bo hiu sm bi v bn c th thu li t mt xu hng ng khi n va bt u. Bn ni ng, bn s chp c tt cc cc xu hng ng lc NU cng c bo hiu sm ng. Nhng khng phi vy. Khi bn s dng cc cng c bo hiu sm, bn s nm mi b la o. Cc cng c bo hiu sm kht ting v vic a ra cc tn hiu gi v n s ch dn sai cho bn. Mt la chn khc l s dng cc cng c bo hiu tr, nhng cng c t khi a ra cc tn hiu gi. Cc cng c bo hiu tr ch a ra tn hiu sau khi bin ng gi ang to mt xu hng r rng. V mt ny bn s chm mt mt t thc hin giao dch. Thng li nhun thu c nhiu nht ca mt xu hng xy ra trong vi thanh u tin v vy vic s dng cc cng c bo hiu tr c th b l mt nhiu li nhun. 7.2 Oscillators and Trend Following Indicators (Cng c o dao ng v cc cng c theo sau hng) Mc ch ca bi ny, hy phn loi khi qut tt c cc cng c k thut thnh mt trong hai loi sau : 1. Oscillators (Cng c o dao ng) 2. Trend following or momentum indicators (Cng c theo sau xu hng) Cc Oscillator l cc cng c bo hiu sm. Cc Momentum indicator l cc cng c bo hiu tr 7.2.1 Oscillators/Leading Indicators (Oscillator/Cng c bo hiu sm) Mt oscillator l mt i tng hoc d liu bin ng ti lui gia hai im. Ni cch khc, n l mt khong lun lun nm gia hai im A v B. Mt oscillator thng bo hiu bn hoc mua ngoi tr cc trng hp khi oscillator khng r im kt thc ca chu k mua/bn. Stochastics, Parabolic SAR v RSI l cc oscillators. Mi cng c ny c thit k bo hiu mt kh nng o hng, v tr m xu hng trc kt thc v gi bt u chuyn hng. Hy xem qua mt vi v d. Trn th 1 gi ca cp U/E bn di, chng ta thm vo mt Parabolic SAR cng nh mt RSI v mt Stochastic. Nh bn hc, khi mt stochastic v RSI bt u thot khi vng bn vt, l mt tn hiu mua. y chng ta c tn hiu bn gia khong thi gian t 3h00 AM n 7h00 AM ngy 24/08/2005. Tt c 03 tn hiu mua xy ra trong 1 hoc 2 gi v y l mt giao dch tt. Chng ta cng nhn c tn hiu bn t c 03 cng c trong khong thi gian t 2h00 n 5h00 ngy 25/08/2005. Nh bn thy, Stochastic duy tr mua vt trong thi gian kh lu, khong 20 gi. Thng khi mt oscillator duy

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tr cc mc mua vt hoc bn vt trong mt khong thi gian di ngha l c mt xu hng mnh sp xy ra. Trong v d ny, khi stochastic trong vng mua vt bn nhn thy xy ra mt xu hng tng mnh. By gi hy nhn th bn di, bn c th nhanh chng thy rng c nhiu tn hiu mua sai bt ng xut hin. Bn s hiu nh th no khi mt cng c bo mua trong khi cng c khc vn bo bn. Trong khong 1h00 ngy 16/08/2005, c RSI v Stochastic u a ra tn hiu mua, trong khi SAR vn hin th tn hiu bn. Vng, SAR a ra tn hiu mua sau 03 gi vo lc 3h00, nhng sau SAR tr li tn hiu bn ngay thanh sau . Nu bn nhn vo thanh vi SAR bn di, n l mt thanh mnh vi cc bng ngn. Cng vy, hy ch cc thanh ng bn di n. y khng phi l mt giao dch di tt Trn 02 tn hiu bn vt (mua) c a ra bi Stochastic, nhng SAR li a ra tn hiu bn. iu g xy ra y? Mi cng c a ra cc tn hiu khc nhau! Cu tr li nm trong phng php tnh ton i vi mi cng c. Stochastic c da trn phm vi gi cao ti gi thp ca khong thi gian (trong trng hp ny l hng gi), cha tnh n cc thay i t mt gi n gi k tip. RSI s dng thay i t mt gi ng ti gi ng k tip. V SAR c cc php tnh ring ca n, iu ny c th to thm s mu thun. Chng ta quan tm n ti sao mt cng c bo hiu sm c th sai, nhng khng c cch no trnh iu ny. Nu bn nhn c cc tn hiu ln ln, tt hn ht l bn ng lm g. Nu mt th khng tha tt c cc tiu chun ca bn, ng tin hnh giao dch! Chuyn sang thi im k tip tha tiu chun ca bn. 7.2.2 Momentum/Lagging Indicators (Cc cng c bo hiu tr) Vy th chng ta pht hin ra mt xu hng nh th no? Cc cng c c th thc hin iu ny nh MACD v cc ng trung bnh bin i. Cc cng c ny s pht hin ra cc xu hng ng thi chng ta phi tr gi bng vic thc hin giao dch s b tr. Trn th E/U mt gi, c mt xu hng tng gi giao nhau trn MACD lc 3h00 am ngy 03/08/05 v ng EMA 10 ct qua ng EMA 20 lc 5h00 am. C 02 tn hiu chnh xc, nhng nu bn i n khi c 02 cng c a cho bn tn hiu mua th bn l mt mt bin ng ln. Nu bn tnh t im bt u xu hng tng gi lc 10h00 pm ngy 02/08/2005 ti im ng ca gi lc 5h00 am ngy 03/08/05, bn s thy mt li nhun 159 pips b b mt. Hy nhn cng th bn c th thy cc tn hiu ct ngang i khi a ra cc tn hiu sai nh th no. Ti thch gi chng l la o. Hy nhn c 02 MACD gim gi giao nhau sau xu hng ln m chng ta tho lun. Mi gi sau , ng EMA 20 ct bn di ng EMA 10 a ra mt tn hiu bn. Nh bn thy, gi khng gim m gi kh n nh, sau tip tc xu hng tng ca n. Nu theo bo hiu ca cng c bn s thc hin mt giao dch bn (short) ti v tr y v bn l. 7.3 Cu hi ng gi triu la Lm th no bn tnh ton c vic nn s dng oscillator hay trend following indicator hay c hai? Sau cng, chng ta bit chng khng lun lun hot ng cng nhau. iu ny gn nh l vn th thch ln nht v phn tch k thut. V ti sau ti gi n l cu hi ng gi triu la. Chng ti s cung cp cu tr li ng gi triu la trong bi hc ti. By gi, ch bit rng khi bn c th nhn dng kiu th trng bn ang giao dch,th bn s bit cng c no s a ra cc tn hiu chnh xc, v cc cng c no tr nn v dng lc . Tm tt :

C 02 kiu cng c : bo hiu sm (leading) v bo hiu tr (lagging). Mt cng c bo hiu sm a ra mt tn hiu mua trc khi mt xu hng mi hoc mt o hng xy ra. Mt cng c bo hiu tr a ra mt tn hiu sau khi xu hng bt u Cc cng c k thut chia thnh 02 loi : cc oscillator v cc momentum indicator hay trend folowing indicator Cc oscillator l cc cng c bo hiu sm

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Cc momentum indicator l cc cng c bo hiu tr Nu bn c th nhn dng kiu th trng bn ang giao dch,th bn s bit cng c no s a ra cc tn hiu chnh xc, v cc cng c no tr nn v dng lc . Chng VIII : Cc mu th quan trng By gi bn c mt kho v kh s dng khi bn chin u trn th trng. Trong bi hc ny bn s thm vo cc v kh khc : CC MU TH!

Sau khi hc, bn s c th pht hin ra cc v n trn th trc khi n xy ra, iu ny s gip bn hi ra tin. Trong bi hc ny, ti s ch bn cc mu th c bn v cc dng. Khi c nhn dng ng, n thng a n mt c ph v th trng ln hay mt v n. Hy nh rng mc ch ca chng ta l nhn ra cc bin ng ln trc khi xy ra chng ta c th nhp cuc v gom tin. Cc dng th s gip chng ta rt nhiu nhn ra cc trng thi ca th trng sp b ph v. y l danh sch cc mu m chng ta s lt qua :

Symmetrical Triangles(Tam gic cn) Ascending Triangles (Tam gic tng) Descending Triangles (Tam gic gim) Double Top (nh i) Double Bottom (y i) Head and Shoulders (u v vai) Reverse Head and Shoulders (u v vai o ngc) 8.1 Tam gic cn (Symmetrical Triangles) Tam gic cn l dng th c ng dc ca cc gi cao v ng dc ca cc gi thp hi t ti mt im ging nh mt tam gic. iu g xy ra trong dng ny, th trng a ra cc gi cao thp hn v cc gi thp cao hn. iu ny c ngha l c ngi mua ln ngi bn u khng sc y gi to mt xu hng r rng. Nu y l mt cuc chin gia ngi mua v ngi bn, th kt qu l mt trn u ha. Kiu hot ng ny c gi l s hi t. Trong biu trn, chng ta c th thy rng c ngi bn v ngi mua u khng th y gi theo hng ca mnh. Khi iu ny xy ra chng ta c gi cao thp dn v gi thp cao dn. Khi 02 ng dc tin n gn nhau, iu ny c ngha l mt c ph v ang gn k. Chng ta khng bit c c ph v th trng s theo hng no, nhng chng ta bit rng th trng s ph v. Vy th chng ta c li g trong trng hp ny? n gin thi, chng ta c th t lnh bn trn ng dc ca cc gi cao thp dn v bn di ng dc ca cc gi thp cao dn. Do chng ta bit gi chun b ph v, chng ta c th nhp cuc trn bt k hng bin ng no ca th trng. Trong v d ny, nu chng ta t mt lnh bn trn ng dc ca cc gi cao thp dn, chng ta s bt c mt giao dch mua tt. Nu bn t mt lnh bn di ng dc ca cc gi thp cao dn vy th bn s hy b n. 8.2 Tam gic tng (Ascending Triangles) Dng ny xy ra khi c mt mc khng c v mt ng dc ca cc gi thp cao dn. iu g xy ra trong trng hp ny? C mt mc vng chc m ngi mua khng th vt khi. Tuy nhin, ngi mua dn dn y gi ln nh cc gi thp cao dn hin th. Trong th trn, bn c th thy l ngi mua ang bt u mnh ln bi v h ang to nn cc gi thp cao dn. H to p lc trn mc khng c v kt qu l mt c ph v xy ra. By gi cu hi l : gi s bin i theo hng no? ngi mua s pht v mc khng c hay mc khng c qu mnh? Nhiu sch v th s bo rng trong hu ht cc trng hp, ngi mua s thng trong cuc chin ny v gi s vt qua mc khng c. Tuy nhin, theo kinh nghim ca ti iu ny khng phi l lun lun. i khi cc mc h tr qu mnh v sc mua khng mnh vt qua n.

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Thc t, phn ln thi gian gi i ln. Chng ta khng ch n vic gi bin ng theo hng no, nhng chng ta mun sn sng cho c 02 hng bin ng. Trong trng hp ny, chng ta s t mt lnh bn trn mc h tr v mt lnh bn di ng dc ca cc gi thp cao dn. Trong hnh trn, ngi mua thng trong cuc chin v gi nhy vt ln cao. 8.3 Tam gic gim (Descending Triangle) Nh bn c th on, tam gic gim hon ton tri ngc vi tam gic tng. Trong tam gic gim, c mt chui cc gi cao gim dn to thnh ng bn trn. ng bn di l mt mc h tr, y l mc m gi dng nh khng th ph v. Trong th trn, bn c th nhn thy l gi dn dn to ra cc gi cao thp dn, iu ny cho chng ta bit rng ngi bn ang bt u ginh v tr chng li ngi mua. Phn ln trng hp ny, cui cng gi s ph v mc h tr v tip tc xung. Tuy nhin, trong vi trng hp, mc h tr qu mnh v gi s vt khi n v to mt hng ln mnh. Thng tin tt nht m chng ta khng ch l gi s bin ng nh th no. Chng ta ch bit rng n s bin ng. Trong trng hp ny chng ta s t lnh trn ng bn trn v di ng h tr. Trong trng hp trn, gi ph v mc h tr v xung kh nhanh. (Ch : th trng c xu hng gim nhanh hn so vi tng, ngha l bn thng kim tin nhanh hn khi bn thc hin giao dch mua (short). 8.4 nh i (Double Top) nh i l mt mu o hng c to thnh sau khi c mt t tng gi ln. Cc nh c to thnh khi gi chm n mt mc vng chc khng th ph v. Sau khi chm mc ny, gi s gim nh nhng sau quay tr ln th ph v mc ny mt ln na. Nu gi li b y xung t mc ny mt ln na v chng ta c NH I. Trong th trn bn c th thy 02 nh c to thnh sau mt t tng gi mnh. nh th 2 khng th ph v mc cao ca nh th nht. y l mt tn hiu mnh bo hiu mt o hng sp xy ra bi v p lc mua va kt thc. Vi nh i, chng ta s t lnh bn di ng bin (neckline) bi v chng ta n trc mt o hng ca hng ln (to thnh hng xung). Wow! Ti phi lm thy bi hay g bi v ti dng nh lun lun ng! Hy nhn th xem, bn c th thy l gi ph v ng neckline v to thnh mt t gim gi. Nh rng mt nh i l mt dng o xu hng. Bn s ch i iu ny sau mt t tng gi mnh. 8.5 y i (Double Bottom) y i cng l dng o hng, nhng lc ny chng ta ang ch mua (long) thay v bn (short). Dng ny xy ra sau mt t gim gi mnh khi 02 y c to thnh. Bn c th thy t th trn, sau xu hng xung, gi to 02 y bi v n khng th vt xung di mt mc vng chc. y th 2 khng th ph v y th nht. iu ny bo hiu p lc bn kt thc v mt o hng sp xy ra. Trong trng hp ny, chng ta s t lnh bn trn ng neckline. Nh bn thy ! Gi ph v ng neckline v to ra mt t tng gi. Hy nh l ging nh nh i, y i cng l mt dng o hng. Bn s ch iu ny sau mt t gim gi mnh. 8.6 u v vai (Head and Shoulders) Mu u v vai cng l mt dng o hng. N c to thnh bi mt nh (vai), tip theo sau l mt nh cao hn (u) v sau l mt nh khc thp hn (vai). Mt neckline c v bng cch ni 02 im thp nht ca 02 vng lm. dc ca ng ny c th ln hoc xung. Theo kinh nghim ca ti khi dc xung n s cho mt tn hiu ng tin hn. Trong v d trn chng ta c th nhn thy mu u v vai. u l nh th 2 v l im cao nht trong mu. Hai vai cng to thnh nh nhng khng cao bng u.

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Vi dng ny, chng ta t lnh bn di ng neckline. Chng ta cng tnh mt mc tiu li nhun bng cch o khong t im cao ca u n ng neckline. Khong cch ny xp x bng khong gi s xung sau khi ph v ng neckline. Bn c th thy l khi gi xung bn di ng neckline n to thnh mt t gim gi vi khong bng khong t u n neckline. 8.7 u v vai o ngc (Reverse Head and Shoulders) V c bn y l mt dng u v vai, ngoi tr lc ny n o ngc. Mt y c to thnh (vai), sau l mt y thp hn (u) v tip theo na l mt y cao hn (vai). Dng ny xy ra sau mt t gim gi mnh. y bn c th nhn thy l n ging nh mt mu u v vai, nhng n b lt ngc xung. Vi dng ny, chng ta s t lnh mua bn trn ng neckline. Mc tiu li nhun ca chng ta c tnh ging nh trng hp u v vai. o khong cch t u n ng neckline v khong cch ny gn bng khong gi s bin ng sau khi ph v neckline. Bn c th thy l gi tng sau khi ph v ng neckline. Ti bit rng bn ang t ngh gi vn gi nguyn hng bin ng k c sau khi t n mc tiu li nhun. V cu tr li ca ti l NG THAM!. Nu mc tiu thu li ca bn t c th hy vui v vi li nhun . Tuy nhin, c nhng chin thut gip bn c th cht li nhun li v vn tip tc gi giao dch m tip tc thu li khi gi vn tng. Bn s hc iu ny trong bi sau. Tm tt : Cc dng th ging nh cc khu bazooka bi v chng thng to ra cc v n ln trn th. Symmetrical triangles

Bao gm cc gi cao thp dn v cc gi thp cao dn t lnh bn trn ng dc ca cc gi cao thp dn v ng dc ca cc gi thp cao dn Ascending triangles

Bao gm cc gi thp cao dn v mt ng khng c Gi thng ph v ng khng c v tng cao nhng bn nn t lnh c 02 hng phng trng hp ng khng c qu mnh. t lnh bn trn ng khng c v bn di cc gi thp cao dn. Descending triangles

Bao gm cc gi cao thp dn v mt ng h tr Gi thng s ph v ng h tr v gim xung nhng bn nn t lnh c 2 hng phng trng hp ng h tr qu mnh. t lnh bn trn cc gi cao thp dn v bn di ng h tr. Cc dng o hng : Double Top

Xy ra sau mt hng ln mnh To thnh bi 02 nh khng th ph v mt mc chc chn. Mc ny tr thnh mt mc khng c. t lnh bn (short) di im thp ca y gia 02 nh. Double Bottom

Xy ra sau mt hng xung mnh To thnh bi 02 y khng th ph v mt mc chc chn. Mc ny tr thanh mt mc h tr. t lnh mua (long) bn trn im cao ca nh gia 02 y.

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Head and Shoulders

Xy ra sau mt hng ln mnh To thnh bi mt nh, theo sau l mt nh cao hn v sau na l mt nh thp hn. Mt ng neckline c to thnh bng cch ni cc im thp ca 02 y. t lnh bn (short) di ng neckline Chng ta tnh mc tiu thu li bng cch o khong cch gia im cao ca u v neckline. Khong cch ny gn bng khong cch m gi s bin ng sau khi ph v neckline Reverse Head and Shoulders

Xy ra sau mt hng xung mnh To thnh bi mt y, theo sau l mt y thp hn v sau na l mt y cao hn. Mt ng neckline c to thnh bng cch ni cc im cao ca 02 nh. t lnh mua (long) trn ng neckline Chng ta tnh mc tiu thu li bng cch o khong cch gia im thp ca u v neckline. Khong cch ny gn bng khong cch m gi s bin ng sau khi ph v neckline Chng IX : im trc (Pivot Points) Nhng ngi giao dch chuyn nghip v nhng ngi lm ra th trng s dng cc im trc (pivot point) xc nh cc mc h tr v khng c quan trng. Mt im trc v cc mc h tr/ khng c ca n l vng m ti hng bin ng ca gi c th thay i. Cc im trc hu dng nht l i vi nhng ngi giao dch ngn hn, nhng ngi tm kim li nhun t cc bin ng gi nh. Cc im trc c th c s dng cho c nhng ngi giao dch khi gi bin ng trong vng gii hn (range-bound trader) v nhng ngi giao dch nh cc c ph v th trng (breakout trader). Cc breakout trader s dng cc im trc nhn ra cc mc then cht cn b ph v i vi mt bin ng c xem thc s l mt c ph v y l mt v d ca cc im trc c v trn th E/U 1 gi : 9.1 Cch tnh cc im trc : im trc v cc mc h tr v khng c c tnh bng cch s dng gi m, gi cao, gi thp, v gi ng ca phin giao dch cui cng. Do Forex l mt th trng 24 gi, phn ln nhng ngi giao dch s dng gi ng ca ca New York lc 4h00 EST nh l gi ng ca ca ngy trc . Cch tnh mt im trc nh sau : Pivot point (PP) = (High + Low + Close) / 3 Cc mc h tr v khng c c tnh t im trc nh sau : Mc h tr v khng c u tin : First support (S1) = (2*PP) High First resistance (R1) = (2*PP) Low Mc h tr v khng c th hai : Second support (S2) = PP (High Low) Second resistance (R2) = PP + (High - Low) ng lo lng, bn khng phi t thc hin cc tnh ton ny. Phn mm th ca bn s t ng thc hin cho bn v v n ln trn th. Mt vi phn mm th cng cung cp cc c tnh b sung cho im trc nh cc mc h tr/khng c th 3 v cc mc trung gian hay cc mc im gia (mid-point level, l cc mc nm gia im trc chnh v mc h tr v khng c). Cc mc thm ny khng c ngha bng 05 mc chnh nhng n hi g khi bn quan n chng. y l mt v d :

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9.2 Cch kinh doanh Forex vi im trc : 9.2.1 Breakout Trades (Giao dch khi c cc t ph v th trng) im trc l v tr u tin bn xem xt tin hnh giao dch bi v n chnh l mc h tr/ khng c u tin. Cc bin ng gi ln thng xy ra ti gi ca im trc. Ch khi gi chm n im trc bn c th quyt nh nn chn mua (long) hay bn (short) v ci t cc gi tr mc tiu li nhun (profit target), gii hn l (stop loss). Ni chung, nu gi bn trn trc n c xem nh tng gi, nu gi bn di n c xem nh gim gi. Gi ang ln xung xung quanh im trc v ng bn di n v vy bn quyt nh thc hin bn (short). Gii hn l ca bn s trn im trc v mc tiu li nhun u tin ca bn s l S1. Tuy nhin, nu bn thy gi tip tc xung di S1, thay v thu li ti S1 bn c th chuyn gii hn l n trn S1 v theo di cn thn. S2 s l im k vng thp nht trong ngy giao dch v bn nn thu li t v tr ny. Ngc li i vi xu hng tng gi. Nu gi bn trn im trc, bn s t lnh mua vi gii hn l di im trc v s dng cc mc R1 v R2 nh l cc mc thu li. 9.2.2 Giao dch khi gi bin ng trong vng gii hn Sc h tr v khng c ti cc mc trc khc nhau c xc nh bi s ln gi nhy qua khi mc . Nu gi chm vo mt mc trc sau o chiu nhiu ln hn th mc trc mnh hn. Mt mc trc mang ngha nh mt mt mc h tr hoc khng c m khi gi chm n s o chiu tr li. Nu gi ang n gn mt mc khng c, bn c th bn v t gii hn l ngay bn trn mc khng c. Nu gi tip tc di chuyn ln cao hn v ph v mc khng c, iu ny c xem nh l mt c ph v bn trn. Bn s ng giao dch mua ca bn nhng nu bn tin rng c ph v to nn tng gi mnh bn c th thc hin li mt giao dch mua (long). Khi ny bn s t gii hn l di mc khng c v lc ny mc khng c c xem nh l mt mc h tr. Nu gi ang gn mt mc h tr, bn c th thc hin mua v t gii hn l di mc h tr. 9.3 L thuyt hon ho : Theo l thuyt, iu ny nghe kh n gin. Trong thc t, cc im trc khng lun lun lm vic. Gi c xu hng do d xung quanh cc ng trc v nhng lc ny khng th xc nh n s din bin tip nh th no. i khi gi s dng trc khi va chm mt ng trc v o hng, ngha l khng t n mc tiu li nhun ca bn. Lc khc, c v nh ng trc l mt mc h tr mnh v vy bn va thc hin giao dch mua th gi tip tc xung qua mc h tr, giao dch mua c ng, sau th gi o hng tr li hng tng gi. Bn phi la chn rt cn thn v to mt chin thut giao dch theo im trc m bn d nh s hon ton theo n. Hy nhn th thy vit s dng cc im trc kh hay d : Hy nhn hnh bu dc mu cam. PP l mt mc h tr mnh nhng d gi vt qua PP nhng n khng th tng ln n R1. Nhn hnh trn mu tm u tin. Gi ph v PP hng xung nhng khng chm c S1 trc khi quay tr li PP. Trn c ph v xung th hai (vng trn mu tm th 2), gi kim sot chm n S1 trc khi quay tr li PP mt ln na. Nhn vo hnh bu dc mu hng. Mt ln na, PP ng vai tr mt mc h tr mnh nhng khng bao gi gi c th tng ln n R1.

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Trn vng trn mu vng, gi ph v theo hng xung mt ln na, v ph v mc S1 xung n S2. Nu bn c gng thc hin giao dch mua trn th ny, bn s b ng giao dch. Ring c nhn ti, ti thm ch s khng ngh n thc hin giao dch mua? Ti sao khng? Ti c mt b mt nh. Ti khng ch cho bn v th ny l gi c xu hng xung kh nhiu ln. Hy nh rng xu hng chnh l bn ca chng ta. V vy ti c ht sc khng bao gi giao dch ngc li xu hng. Trong bi ti, bn s hc cch s dng a khung thi gian giao dch vi xu hng ng nh bn c th gim ti thiu sai lm nh trn. 9.4 Cc ghi nh v im trc : C mt vi im cn ghi nh s gip bn a ra cc quyt nh giao dch thng minh vi im trc

R1.

Nu Nu Nu Nu Nu Nu

gi ti gi ti gi ti gi ti gi ti khng

PP, ch mt bin ng tr li R1 hoc S1 R1, k vng mt bin ng ti R2 hoc tr v PP S1, k vng mt bin ng ti S2 hoc tr v PP R2, k vng mt bin ng ti R3 hoc tr v R1 S2, k vng mt bin ng ti S3 hoc tr v S1 c tin tc c ngha nh hng n th trng, gi thng s bin ng t PP n S1 hoc

Nu c tin tc c ngha tc ng n th trng, gi c th vt qua R1 hoc S1 v t n R2 hoc S2 k c R3 hoc S3 R3 v S3 l mt ch s tt i vi phm vi ti a ca nhng ngy v cng bin ng nhng i khi c th b vt qu. Cc ng trc lm vic tt vi th trng ngang (sideways) khi gi bin ng hu nh gia R1 v S1. Trong mt xu hng mnh, gi s vt qua mt ng trc v tip tc. Tm tt :

Cc im trc l mt k thut c s dng bi nhng ngi giao dch chuyn nghip v nhng ngi to ra th trng xc nh cc im xng vo v rt lui i vi ngy giao dch da trn hot ng ca ngy trc . Tt nht s dng k thut ny sau khi xc nh xu hng. Nh th trn hin th, cc trc c th cc k hu dng trong Forex v nhiu cp tin t thng dao ng gia cc mc ny. Nhng ngi giao dch khi gi bin ng trong vng gii hn s thc hin mua gn cc mc h tr v thc hin bn khi gi gn mc khng c. Cc im trc cng cho php nhng ngi giao dch khi c ph v th trng nhn bit cc mc quan trng cn b ph v i vi mt bin ng kh nng nh mt c ph v tht s. S n gin ca cc im trc lm cho chng tr thnh mt cng c hu dng cho bn. N cho php bn thy vng gi c kh nng bin ng. Bn s tr thnh ng b vi bin ng th trng v a ra cc quyt nh tt hn. Hc cch s dng cc im trc km theo cc cng c phn tch k thut khc nh cc mu gi , MACD, ng trung bnh, cc mc mua vt/ bn vt ca Stochastic. Chng X : Giao dch s dng a khung thi gian (Multiple Timeframes) 10.1 Ti nn giao dch vi khung thi gian no? Mt trong nhng nguyn nhn chnh nhng ngi giao dch khng thc hin tt nh h c th l bi v h thng giao dch vi khung thi gian khng ph hp vi tnh cch ca h. Nhng ngi giao dch mun hc cch lm giu nhanh chng v vy h s bt u giao dch vi cc khung thi gian nh nh th 1 pht hoc 5 pht. Sau h nn ch khi giao dch bi v khung thi gian khng ph hp vi tnh cch ca h. OK, vy th bn s hi ci g l khung thi gian ph hp vi bn? Nu bn ch n, n da vo tnh cch ca bn. Bn phi cm thy thoi mi vi khung thi gian bn giao dch.

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Bn s lun lun cm thy mt vi p lc hoc cm gic nn ch khi bn thc hin mt giao dch bi v b ng tin tht cun ht vo. Nhng bn khng nn cm thy l nguyn nhn ca p lc bi v nhng g ang xy ra qu nhanh n ni bn rt kh khn a ra quyt nh hoc qu chm n ni bn cm thy nn. Khi ti bt u giao dch, ti khng th c nh vi mt khung thi gian. Ti bt u vi th 15 pht. Sau th 5 pht. Sau ti th qua th 1 gi, 4 gi v th ngy. Cui cng, sau mt thi gian di khng trung thnh vi khung thi gian, ti cm thy giao dch thoi mi nht vi th 1 gi. Khung thi gian ny di hn, nhng khng qu di lm, v cc tn hiu giao dch khng nhiu nhng khng qu t. Mt khc, ti c mt ngi bn khng bao gi giao dch trong khung thi gian 1 gi. N th qu chm i vi anh ta v anh ta ngh rng anh ta s thi ra v cht trc khi c th giao dch. Anh ta thch giao dch vi th 10 pht hn. N vn thi gian cho anh ta a ra quyt nh da trn k hoch giao dch ca mnh. Mt ngi bn thn khc ca ti khng th hiu lm th no ti c th giao dch vi th 1 gi bi v anh ta ngh rng n qu nhanh. Anh ta ch giao dch theo th ngy, tun v thng. Tn anh ta l Warren Buffet. Bn c l cng bit anh ta. Khung thi gian giao dch thng c phn thnh 03 loi : 1. Long-term - Di hn 2. Short-term or swing - Ngn hn 3. Intraday or day-trading Trong ngy Ci no tt hn? iu ny ph thuc vo c tnh ca bn! Hy ti a cho bn mt bng phn tch thng k ca 03 loi gip bn chn la khung thi gian ca ring mnh : Khung thi gian Long-term Di hn M t u im Nhng ngi giao dch di Khng phi theo di th hn thng tham kho trng trong ngy. cc th ngy v tun. Giao dch t hn ngha l Cc th tun s thit t tr ph hn. lp mt phi cnh di hn v h tr trong vic t cc giao dch i vi th ngy ngn hn hn. Cc giao dch thng t vi tun n nhiu thng, i khi c nm. Nhng ngi giao dch Nhiu c hi giao dch ngn hn s dng khung hn thi gian theo gi v kim t ri ro b l hng thng sot cc giao dch trong t khi no ch da vo 1 vi gi n mt tun. hoc 2 giao dch mt nm kim tin Nhng ngi giao dch Nhiu c hi giao dch trong ngy s dng th t ri ro b l hng thng pht nh 1 pht hoc 5 Khng qu mo him pht Cc giao dch c gi trong ngy v chm dt khi th trng ng ca Khuyt im Nhng t bin ng ln cn gii hn l ln. Thng c 1 hoc 2 giao dch tt mt nm, do cn tnh kin nhn. Thng xuyn l hng thng

Short-term Ngn hn

Chi ph giao dch cao hn (nhiu giao dch thc hin) Mo him cao

Intraday Trong ngy

Chi ph giao dch s nhiu Phi thng xuyn thc hin giao dch Li nhun b gii hn do cn chm dt vo cui ngy.

10.2 Bn phi quyt nh khung thi gian no ph hp cho bn. Bn cng phi quan tm lng vn bn c giao dch. Cc khung thi gian ngn hn cho php bn s dng margin (vn d tr) tt hn v c gii hn l st hn. Khung thi gian di hn i hi ti khon ln hn v bn c th phi chu ng cc t bin ng th trng m khng b margin call (ng giao dch khi khng cn vn d tr) Khi bn quyt nh khung thi gian a thch ca mnh l lc bn bt u xem a khung thi gian h tr bn phn tch th trng.

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10.3 Giao dch s dng a khung thi gian Nu bn tng xem th trn cc khung thi gian khc nhau, bn chc chn rng th trng c th c hng bin ng khc nhau ti cng mt thi im. Mt ng trung bnh bin i c th tng trn th tun v a ra tn hiu mua, nhng li gim trn th ngy v a ra tn hiu bn. Th trng cng c th hi phc trn th gi v bo bn thc hin giao dch mua, nhng li gim trn th 10 pht v bo bn thc hin giao dch bn. Vy th ci qui g ang xy ra? Hy chi mt tr chi nh gi l Mua hay Bn (Long or Short). Qui lut ca tr chi rt n gin. Bn nhn vo mt biu v bn quyt nh thc hin giao dch mua hay bn. 10.3.1 5 th 5 pht Hy nhn th E/U 5 pht ngy 03/11/05 khong 4h00 am EST. N ang giao dch bn trn ng trung bnh bin i n gin 100 (SMA 100) l xu hng tng gi. N va ph v v ng bn trn mc khng c. y l thi im hon ho thc hin lnh mua ng khng? Ti s tr li l ng. , bn SAI ri? Hy xem chuyn g xy ra. N tng ln mt cht nhng sau ri xung rt nhanh. Vy l qu t. 10.3.2 th 60 pht Hy nhn cng th trn vi khung thi gian cao hn. Lc cng ngy 03/11/2005 v cng thi im khong 4h00 am EST. Gi ph v knh xung ca n l xu hng tng. Cp tin t ang giao dch bn trn ng SMA 100 l xu hng tng. Gi cui cng ph v v ng bn trn mc h tr l xu hng tng. Gi tng ng khng? Bn ni mua i. , hy nhn th ka, ngi mua b git tht! Cp tin t xung tr li knh xung ca n. Hy nhn gi cui cng, n xung qu mnh, n khng th trong th ca ti. Qu in! 10.3.4 4 th 4 gi OK, by gi chng ta chuyn sang mt th c khung thi gian cao hn na, th 4 gi. N vn cng ngy v cng gi, ch khc l khung thi gian cao hn. Nu bn nhn th ny trc tin, bn c vn thc hin giao dch mua nh trn th 5 pht v 1 gi khng? Cp tin hin nay ang giao dch trong mt knh xung l xu hng gim gi. Gi ang chm ng xu hng trn, iu ny l gim gi mnh. Vng, n vn bn trn ng SMA 100 m iu ny s xem nh l xu hng tng gi, nhng knh xung vn lm ti cn thn. c bit do cp tin t ang giao dch gn ng xu hng trn. Hy xem chuyn g xy ra! Xung rt nhanh! Cp tin thc s trong knh ca n. N chm vo ng xu hng trn v gim xung. 10.3.5 th ngy Hy tip tc thm mt khung thi gian na l th ngy. Cp tin t ang giao dch trong mt xu hng xung r rng. N bn di ng SMA 100 v ang nm trong mt knh xung. Trn th ny, chiu ca xu hng l qu r rng. Bn c ch gi cui cng khng? N th ph v ng xu hng trn v o chiu. Khng l mt tn hiu tng gi tt. Hy xem chuyn g xy ra. Mt hng xung tip tc! Vy ci g l im mu cht? Tt c cc th hin th cng ngy, cng gi. Chng ch khc nhau khung thi gian. By gi bn hiu tm quan trng ca vic quan st a khung thi gian cha? Ti thng khng giao dch vi th 15 pht. Ti c th khng bao gi hiu ti sao th trng trng nh ang tt li thnh lnh ngng li v i hng.

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Khng c g ngn ngh ca ti hy nhn xem mt khng thi gian ln hn xem c g ang xy ra. Khi th trng ngng li hay o hng trn th 15 pht, thng l bi v n chm mt mc h tr hoc khng c trn mt khung thi gian ln hn. Ti mt vi trm hc c bi hc l khung thi gian ln hn th cc mc h tr v khng c quan trong hn. Vic giao dch s dng a khung thi gian c th gip ti kim c nhiu tin hn so vi giao dch ch vi 01 khung thi gian. iu ny s cho php bn gi mt giao dch lu hn bi v bn c th nhn bit v tr ca bn trong mt ton cnh ln hn. Hu ht nhng ngi mi bt u ch xem xt 01 khung thi gian. H chn 01 khung thi gian, p dng vi cng c d bo ca h v b qua cc khung thi gian khc. Vn y l mt xu hng mi li c bo hiu trn mt khung thi gian khc, v ngi giao dch b mt v u do khng nhn ton cnh ln hn. Hy nhn bao qut xem iu g ang din ra. ng c gng a mt ca bn gn st vo th trng, nhng tht ra li y bn ra xa. Hy chn khung thi gian a thch ca bn v sau xem xt ti khung thi gian ln hn trc khi a ra mt quyt nh chin lc tin hnh giao dch mua hay bn da trn xu hng ca th trng. Sau bn s quay tr li khung thi gian a thch ca bn a ra quyt nh chin thut bao gm v tr m v ng giao dch. R rng c mt gii hn i vi s khung thi gian bn c th hc. Bn khng mun mt mn hnh y cc th bo cho bn nhiu kt qu khc nhau. Hy s dng t nht 02 khung thi gian nhng khng nhiu hn 03 khung thi gian, bi v thm nhiu khung thi gian ch lm ln xn v bn s b mt iu khin v tr thnh in khng. Bn c th s dng bt k khung thi gian no m bn cm thy di thy khc bit trong bin ng ca chng. Bn c th s dng :

1 minute, 5 minute, and 30 minute (1 pht, 5 pht v 30 pht) 5 minute, 30 minute, and 4 hour (5 pht, 30 pht, v 4 gi) 15 minute, 1 hour, and 4 hour (15 pht, 1 gi, v 4 gi) 1 hour, 4 hour, and daily (1 gi, 4 gi v ngy) 4 hour, daily, and weekly and so on (4 gi, ngy v tun ) Khi bn c gng quyt nh cc th cch bit nhau bao nhiu thi gian, hy m bo c s khc bit gia khung thi gian nh v khung thi gian ln. Nu cc khung thi gian qu gn, bn s khng th bit s khc bit. Tm tt :

Bn phi xc nh khung thi gian ph hp cho bn. Khi bn tm c khung thi gian a thch, hy tin ti khung thi gian k tip cao hn. Khung thi gian ln hn s cho bn mt quyt nh chin lc thc hin giao dch mua hay bn da trn xu hng. Sau bn s tr li vi khung thi gian a thch ca bn a ra quyt nh v tr m v ng giao dch. Vic thm vo khung thi gian s gip bn nhn rng hn so vi nhng ngi ch giao dch vi 01 khung thi gian. Hy tp thi quen xem xt nhiu khung thi gian khi giao dch. Hy chn mt b khung thi gian m bn s xem xt v ch tp trung trn cc khung thi gian . Chn ly 03 khung thi gian : 1 gi, 4 gi, ngy; 5 pht, 15 pht, 1 gi .v.v. V ch s dng cc khung thi gian . Hy hc tt c chng bn c th nm r th trng hot ng nh th no trn cc khung thi gian ny. ng nhn qu nhiu khung thi gian, bn s b qu ti do qu nhiu thng tin v u bn s n tung. Gi li 02 hay 03 khung thi gian, thm bt k khung thi gian no ch lm qu ti. Vic s dng a khung thi gian gii quyt vn mu thun gia th v cc cng c d bo. Lun lun bt u phn tch th trng bng vic quay tr li v xem xt ton cnh bao qut. Hy s dng mt th di hn xc nh xu hng v sau tr li gn th trng hn a ra quyt nh m v ng giao dch. Chng XI : L thuyt sng Elliott (Elliott Wave) Tr li thp k 1920 1930, c mt thin ti in khng tn l Ralph Nelson Elliott ngi khm ph ra l th trng chng khon thc s khng bin ng mt cch hn lon.

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Th trng giao dch theo cc vng lp i lp li. Elliot gii thch l do cc thay i ln v xung ca tm l mi ngi lun lun th hin theo cc mu lp i lp li ging nhau, iu ny c chia thnh cc mu gi l sng (wave). Elliot a ra mt nguyn l gi l Thuyt sng Elliot. The 5 3 Wave Patterns (Mu sng 5-3) ng Elliot ch ra rng mt th trng bin ng di dng gi l mu sng 5-3. Mu 5-wave u tin c gi l sng ti (impulse waves) v mu 3-wave sau c gi l sng lui (corrective waves). Trc tin hy nhn mu sng ti 5-wave : C v nh c g ln xn. Hy thm mu cho hnh v : By gi mi bc m ca sng c t mu khc nhau. y l mt m t ngn gn cho bit iu g din ra trong mi pha sng. Ti s s dng chng khon lm v d bi v ng Elliott s dng chng khon. iu ny vn ng vi tin t, k phiu, vng, du iu quan trng l Thuyt sng Elliott vn ng i vi forex. Wave 1 (Sng 1) Chng khon tng ln u tin. iu ny thng l do mt lng kh nh ngi bt ng ngh rng gi trc ca chng khon l mt mn hi v ng mua, khi h thc hin mua v to nn gi tng. Wave 2 (Sng 2) Chng khon c quan tm nh gi qu cao. Ti im ny lng ngi nh gi cao chng khon trong pha sng ban u v ngi ta bt u thu li bng cch bn ra. iu ny lm cho chng khon i xung. Tuy nhin, chng khon khng t tr li mc thp trc trc khi chng khon mt ln na c ngh l r. Wave 3 (Sng 3) y l pha sng di nht v mnh nht. Nhiu ngi n chng khon, nhiu ngi mun chng khon v h mua n vi gi ngy cng cao. Pha sng ny thng vt qua nh cui cng ca pha sng th nht. Wave 4 (Sng 4) Ti im ny ngi ta mt ln na thu li bi v chng khon mt ln na c xem nh gi cao. Pha sng ny c xu hng yu bi v thng vn c nhiu ngi tip tc u c chng khon v sau khi mt s ngi thu li pha sng th 5 xut hin. Wave 5 (Sng 5) y l thi im nhiu ngi quan tm n chng khon nht v hu ht b nh hng bi tm l. Mi ngi s ngh ra nhiu l do mua chng khon v s khng lng nghe cc li khuyn ngn cn. y l thi im gi chng khon tng cao nht. Ti thi im ny s c s khng c v mi ngi bt u bn v gi chng khon chuyn sang mu ABC. ABC Correction (iu chnh ABC) Xu hng sng ti (5-wave) sau gim v o chiu sang xu hng sng lui (3-wave). Cc k t c s dng thay th cho s nh du. Xem v d v sng lui (3-wave) bn di : Chng ta s dng th trng tng gi (Bull market) l v d, iu ny khng c ngha l thuyt sng Elliot khng ng i vi th trng gim gi (Bear market). i vi th trng gim gi, mu sng 5-3 c dng nh sau : Cc pha sng ph trong mt sng : Mt iu quan trng khc m bn phi bit v thuyt sng Elliot l mt sng c to bi cc sng ph (sub-wave). Hy ti ch cho bn mt hnh khc.

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Bn c thy cch sng-1 c to bi mt mu sng ti (5-wave) nh hn v sng 2 c to bi mt mu sng lui (3-wave) nh hn? Mi sng gm cc mu sng nh hn Hy xem mt v d tht t : Nh bn thy, cc pha sng trong thc th khng hon ton ging nh trong l thuyt v i khi rt kh t tn cho cc pha sng. l tt c nhng g bn cn bit v Thuyt Sng Elliot. Hy nh rng th trng bin ng theo cc pha sng. By gi khi bn nghe mt ai ni rng sng 2 kt thc th bn s bit anh ta ang ni v ci g Nu bn mun tr thnh mt chuyn gia v Thuyt sng Elliot th bn c th hc nhiu hn ti www.elliotwave.com. Tm tt :

Theo Thuyt Sng Elliot, th trng bin ng theo cc mu lp li gi l sng Mt th trng c xu hng bin ng theo mu sng 5-3. Mu 5-wave u tin gi l sng ti (impulsewave). Mu 3-wave tip theo gi l sng lui (corrective wave) Nu bn c gng xem mt th bn s thy l th trng tht s bin ng theo sng. Chng XII : To h thng giao dch ca ring bn (Trading System) Nu bn tm kim trn mng bng Google vi t kha forex trading systems bn s tm c rt nhiu h thng (system) m ngi ta gi l chn thnh (Holy Grail) v bn c th ma ch vi vi ngn la. Cc h thng ny c cho l c th mang n hng ngn pips mt tun v khng bao gi thua. H s a cho bn xem cc kt qu ca h thng hon ho ca h v bn s b tin ng k quyn truy cp s dng h thng v t ni vi mnh Mnh ch b ra 3.000$ v c th bt u kim tin. Nu h thng ny mang n hng ngn pips mt tun th mnh s thu hi vn chng my chc. T t thi, c mt vi iu bn cn bit trc khi b tin ra mua h thng. S tht l nhiu h thng hot ng tht s. Vn y l cc trader khng tun th ng nguyn tc khi s dng h thng. S tht th hai l thay v tr hng ngn la mua mt h thng, bn c th b thi gian pht trin mt h thng cho chnh bn v s dng tin d nh mua h thng lm vn v tin hnh trading. S tht th ba l vic to mt system khng kh. Ci kh l cc nguyn tc m bn s dng khi xy dng system cho bn. Bi hc ny s hng dn bn cc bc bn cn to mt system ph hp vi bn. Cui bi hc, ti s a cho bn mt v d v mt system m ti s dng. Mc tiu ca system ca bn Ti bit bn s ni rng Mc tiu ca system ca ti l to ra mt t la. l mt mc tiu tuyt vi nhng n khng phi l mt mc tiu m s gip bn tr thnh mt trader thnh cng. Khi bn xy dng mt system, bn mun t c 02 mc tiu quan trng : 1. System ca bn c th xc nh xu hng cng sm cng tt 2. System ca bn c th trnh c thua l Nu bn c th t c 02 iu trn vi system ca bn, ti bo m l bn s thnh cng. Phn kh nht i vi cc mc tiu trn l chng mu thun vi nhau. Nu bn c mt system vi mc tiu duy nht l nm bt c xu hng sm th bn s c kh nng b la nhiu ln. Mt khc, nu bn c mt system vi mc tiu trnh thua l bn s b chm tr khi giao dch v s b l nhiu giao dch tt. Cng vic ca bn khi xy dng mt system l tm ra mt cn bng gia hai mc tiu. Bn cn tm ra cch xc nh xu hng sm nhng cng tm ra cch s gip bn nhn ra cc tn hiu gi.

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Hy lun lun nh 02 mc tiu trn khi to system cho bn. Chng s mang n cho bn nhiu tin. By gi hy xem qua 06 bc to system cho ring bn. Su bc to system cho bn : Mc tiu chnh ca ch ny l hng dn bn tin trnh xy dng system cho bn. Trong khi vic to mt system khng tn nhiu thi gian, vic kim tra (test) system l rt tn thi gian. Hy kin nhn, mt system tt c th v s mang v cho bn nhiu tin. Bc 1 : khung thi gian iu trc tin bn cn xc nh khi to system l bn thuc kiu trader no. Bn l day trader hay swing trader? Bn thch xem chart ngy, thng, hay nm? Bn thng gi giao dch bao lu? iu ny s gip bn xc nh khung thi gian bn s s dng trade. Cho d bn s vn xem nhiu khung thi gian, y s l khung thi gian chnh bn s dng khi xc nh tn hiu a vo giao dch. Bc 2 : Tm cc cng c (indicator) gip bn nhn bit mt xu hng mi Bi v mt trong cc mc ch ca chng ta l pht hin xu hng cng sm cng tt, chng ta s s dng cc cng c c th thc hin iu ny. Cc ng trung bnh l mt trong nhng cng c thng dng nht c cc trader s dng gip pht hin mt xu hng. c bit, cc trader s dng 02 ng trung bnh (mt nhanh v mt chm) v i n khi ng nhanh ct ng chm. y l iu c bn trong mt system "ng trung bnh ct nhau". Dng n gin nht, cc ng ng trung bnh giao nhau l cch nhanh nhanh nht pht hin mt xu hng mi. N cng l cch d nht pht hin mt xu hng mi. D nhin c nhiu cc khc trader pht hin xu hng , nhng ng trung bnh l mt cch d nht s dng. Bc 3 : Tm cc cng c h tr vic xc nhn (confirm) mt xu hng Mc tiu th hai ca system l c kh nng trnh thua l, ngha l chng ta khng mun tm nhm cc xu hng sai (false trend). Cch thc hin iu ny l phi m bo khi chng ta thy mt tn hiu bo mt xu hng mi, chng ta c th xc nhn tn hiu bng mt cng c khc. C nhiu cng c tt i vi vic xc nhn xu hng, nhng ti tht s thch MACD, Stochastics v RSI. Khi bn tr nn quen thuc hn vi cc cng c khc, bn s tm ra mt cng c m bn thch v c th kt hp trong system ca bn. Bc 4 : Xc nh ri ro ca bn Khi xy dng system iu rt quan trng l bn xc nh s thua l bao nhiu cho mi giao dch. Khng c nhiu ngi thch ni v vic thua l, nhng trong thc t mt trader gii suy ngh v h c kh nng thua l nh th no trc khi ngh v vic h c th thng bao nhiu. Mi ngi c th chp nhn mc thua l khc nhau. Bn phi quyt nh bao nhiu th chp nhn cho giao dch ca bn, nhng ng thi khng qu ri ro cho giao dch. Bn s hc nhiu hn v vic qun l tin (money management) trong bi hc sau. Qun l tin ng mt vai tr quan trng trong vic xc nh mc ri ro bao nhiu trong mt giao dch. Bc 5 : Xc nh im m giao dch (entry) v im ng giao dch (exit) Khi bn xc nh chp nhn thua l bao nhiu trn mt giao dch, th bc k tip l tm ra im bn s m v ng giao dch t c li nhun cao nht. Mt s ngi thch m giao dch ngay khi cc cng c ca h xc nhn v a ra mt tn hiu tt mc d candle cha kt thc. Nhng ngi khc th thch i cho n khi kt thc candle.

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Theo kinh nghim ca ti, ti nhn ra l tt nht nn i cho n khi kt thc candle hy m giao dch. Ti gp nhiu trng hp candle ang cha kt thc ( gia thi khong ca candle) v tt cc cng c u xc nhn ch ch candle kt thc, v xu hng o ngc. Vn y chnh l kiu giao dch (trading style). Mt s ngi hng hn nhng ngi khc v cui cng bn s xc nh bn thuc tp trader no. i vi ng giao dch (exit) bn c mt s la chn khc nhau. Mt cch l di stop loss theo (trailing stop), ngha l nu gi di chuyn mt khong X th bn s di chuyn stop loss mt khong X. Mt cch khc ng giao dch l t target ng, vi cch ny giao dch s ng khi gi chm target. Cch tnh target ca bn l ty thuc vo bn. Mt s ngi chn cc mc h tr v khng c lm target. Nhng ngi khc li chn mt lng pip nht nh cho mi giao dch. Tuy nhin bn chnh l ngi quyt nh target cho bn, ch chc chn rng bn trung thnh vi n. Trung thnh vi system ca bn! Mt cch na l bn c th ng giao dch da vo cc tiu chun, khi tha cc tiu chun bn s ng giao dch, V d, bn c th t ra mt nguyn tc l khi cc cng c bo hiu o chiu mt mc xc nh no th bn s ng giao dch. Bc 6 : Vit ra cc nguyn tc ca system v tun th theo n! y l bc quan trng nht trong vic xy dng mt system. Bn phi vit ra cc nguyn tc ca system v lun lun tun th theo cc nguyn tc ny. S tun th nguyn tc l mt trong nhng yu t mt trader cn c, v vy bn phi lun lun nh phi trung thnh vi system ca bn! System s khng th lm vic nu bn khng trung thnh vi cc nguyn tc. Cch kim tra system ca bn Cch nhanh nht kim tra system ca bn l tm mt phn mm th m bn c th test vi cc d liu qu kh, xem h thng ca bn hot ng nh th no v ghi nhn li tt c thng, thua, trung bnh thng/thua. Nu bn cm thy hi lng vi kt qu th bn c th chuyn sang test vi giao dch tht trn cc demo account. Hy trade trn h thng tht bng demo account t nht l 02 thng. iu ny s gip bn thnh tho giao dch theo system ca bn khi th trng bin ng. Hy tin ti, c nhiu im khc bit gia giao dch tht t so vi khi bn kim tra bng d liu qu kh. Sau 02 thng giao dch trn demo account, nu kt qu vn tt bn c th chn system giao dch trn mt live account. n lc ny, bn rt t tin vo system ca mnh. System n gin : Trong phn ny ti s trnh by cho bn mt system nh th no. iu ny s gip bn c khi nim bn nn tm ci g khi xy dng system Thit lp :

Giao dch trn daily chart (swing trading) Dng 5-EMA ng Dng 10-EMA ng Stochastic (10,3,3) RSI (14) Nguyn tc giao dch 1. Stop Loss = 30 pips 2. Entry Rules - Nguyn tc m giao dch 1. M long nu: 2. ng 5-EMA ct bn trn 10-EMA v c 02 ng stochastic hng ln (khng m giao dch nu cc ng stochastic trong vng mua vt) 3. RSI ln hn 50 4. M short nu :

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5. ng 5-EMA ct bn di 10-EMA v c 02 ng stochastic hng xung (khng m giao dch nu cc ng stochastic trong vng bn vt) 6. RSI nh hn 50 3. Exit Rules Nguyn tc ng giao dch :

ng giao dch khi ng 5-EMA ct 10-EMA theo hng ngc li vi giao dch ca bn hoc nu RSI ct tr li 50.

Hy xem mt s th sau hiu cch hot ng ca system. Nh bn c th thy, chng ta c tt c cc thnh phn ca mt system tt. Trc tin, chng ta quyt nh y l mt swing trading system v chng ta s giao dch trn daily chart. K tip, chng ta s dng cc ng trung bnh h tr chng ta pht hin mt xu hng mi cng sm cng tt. ng Stochastic h tr chng ta xc nh nu vn OK m giao dch sau khi cc ng trung bnh ct nhau v n cng gip chng ta trnh cc vng mua vt hoc bn vt. ng RSI l mt cng c xc nhn thm gip chng ta xc nh lc ca xu hng. Sau khi tnh ton cc ci t, chng ta s xc nh ri ro cho mi giao dch. i vi h thng ny, chng ta chp nhn ri ro cho mi giao dch l 30 pips. Thng thng, vi khung thi gian cao hn chng ta s chp nhn mc ri ro nhiu pip hn bi v li nhun ca bn s nhiu hn so vi giao dch trn khung thi gian nh hn. K tip, chng ta xc nh r cc nguyn tc m v ng giao dch. Lc ny, chng ta s bt u th kim tra system bng backtest (test vi d liu qu kh). Di y l mt s v d : Nu chng ta xem chart bn trn, chng ta s thy l theo nguyn tc system ca chng ta y l thi im tt thc hin giao dch long. im kim tra, bn s vit ra gi bn s m giao dch, stop loss, v k hoch ng giao dch. Sau bn s di chuyn chart thm 01 candle n thi im xem giao dch thc hin nh th no. Trong trng hp ny, bn s kim c mt s lng pips ln. Bn c th thy l khi cc ng trung bnh ct nhau theo hng ngc li l lc chng ta ng giao dch. D nhin, khng phi tt c cc giao dch ca chng ta u p nh th ny. Mt s giao dch s ti t, nhng bn nn nh rng phi gi vng nguyn tc v trung thnh vi cc nguyn tc ca system. Trong v d ny, bn c th thy l cc iu kin ca chng ta tha mn v y l thi im m giao dch short. By gi chng ta s ghi nhn gi m giao dch, stop loss v exit. Sau di chart tin ln mt candle ti bn thy vic g xy ra. Ti s c 100$ l bn ng vi giao dch ny. Ti li ng mt ln na! Bn c th thy l chng ta s gi giao dch ny cho n khi cc ng trung bnh ct nhau ln na v RSI quay tr li 50. Ti bit bn c th ang ngh rng system ny qu n gin kim tin. Tht s l n gin. Bn khng nn s nhng g n gin. Mt system khng phi phc tp. Bn khng cn phi c hng ng cng c trn th ca minh. Trong tht t, vic n gin ha s gip bn nhc u. iu quan trng nht l tun th ng cc nguyn tc. Bn phi lun lun trung thnh vi cc nguyn tc ca system. Nu bn kim tra system ca mnh vi d liu qu kh v giao dch trn demo account t nht 02 thng, vy th bn c th t tin v bit lm th no tun th cc nguyn tc ca h thng, v tin s bt u n vi bn. Hy tin tng system ca minh v hy tin vo chnh mnh! Tm tt : C nhiu system hot ng tt, nhng c nhiu trader khng tun th ng theo cc nguyn tc v kt qu l thua l. System ca bn cn t c 02 mc tiu : 1. C th pht hin mt xu hng cng sm cng tt 2. C th trnh c thua l (xc nhn xu hng ca bn) C 06 bc xy dng system :

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1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.

Tm khung thi gian Tm cng c gip bn nhn bit xu hng sm Tm cng c gip bn trnh thua l v xc nhn xu hng cho bn Xc nh ri ro Xc nh im m v ng giao dch Vit cc nguyn tc ca system ra v lun lun tun th theo cc nguyn tc !

C 03 giai on kim tra system : 1. Kim tra bng d liu qu kh - s dng d liu qu kh kim tra xem system v cc nguyn tc hot ng nh th no. 2. Nu c th, tin hnh giao dch trn demo account t nht 02 thng. iu ny s gip bn giao dch bng system ca mnh khi th trng bin ng thc v s c nhiu khc bit so vi kim tra trn d liu qu kh. 3. Khi bn giao dch bng system trn demo account t nht 02 thng v bn vn c li nhun, bn sn sng s dng system ca mnh giao dch bng tin tht. Tuy nhin, bn phi lun lun nh l phi tun th vi cc nguyn tc bt k v l do g! Chng XIII : Gi th trng hat ng (Market Hours) Tt c cc bi hc trn hng dn cch giao dch, nhng mt bi hc quan trng khc m bn cn hc l khi no nn giao dch. Th trng forex m ca 24gi/ngy, nhng khng c ngha l th trng lun lun hot ng c ngy. Bn c th kim tin khi th trng tng v c khi th trng gim. Tuy nhin, bn s c nhng lc rt kh kim tin khi th trng khng bin ng. Bi hc ny s gip bn xc nh thi gian tt nht trong ngy giao dch. Gi th trng Trc khi tm xem thi gian no l tt nht, chng phi xem qua 24 gi trong th gii forex nh th no. Th trng Forex c th chia thnh 03 phin giao dch chnh (trading session) : phin Tokyo, phin Lodon v phin US. Di y l bn gi m ca/ ng ca ca cc phin giao dch. Gi Vit Nam = GMT + 7. VD : gi m ca ca Tokyo l 0h00 GMT -> tng ng vi 7h00 gi VN, gi m ca ca London l 8h00 GMT -> tng ng 15h00 gi VN. Bn c th thy l gia mi session c mt khong thi gian c 02 session u m. T 3 4 AM EST c Tokyo v London u m, t 8 12 AM EST c London v US u m. Tt nhin, c nhng lc th trng no nhit nht bi v s lng giao dch nhiu hn do c 02 th trng u m. (S pip bin ng trung bnh ca 04 cp tin chnh trong mi phin) Nh bn thy , phin London thng c bin ng nhiu nht. By gi hy xem ngy no trong tun tt nht thc hin giao dch. Ngy tt nht trong tun tin hnh giao dch Forex By gi bn bit l phin London no nhit nht trong tt c cc phin, nhng c nhng ngy trong tun tt c cc th trng u bin ng nhiu hn. Di y l thng k bin ng trung bnh ca 04 cp tin chnh theo cc ngy trong tun : Bn c th thy l trong khong gia tun c 04 cp tin u bin ng nhiu nht. Thi im giao dch nu bn mun mt tin Chng ti khng mun p t quan im ca mnh ln bn. Thay vo , chng ti mun bn a ra quyt nh cho chnh mnh. Nu bn tht s khng mun giao dch vo nhng lc th trng no nhit hn v bn s kim tin d hn vy th bn c t do giao dch vo nhng thi gian cp di y. Chng ti bo m bn s gp nhiu kh khn hn!

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Th Su : Th su l rt bt n, y l mt ngy tt giao dch nu bn mun mt tt c li nhun kim c trong tun. Ch Nht : C bin ng rt nh trong ngy ny. Hy tin hnh giao dch vo ngy Ch nht nu bn mun bt u mt tun vi s pips m. Ngy ngh l: Ngn hng ng ca ngha l lng giao dch t cc nc c ngy ngh l s rt t. Cc ngy ngh l rt tuyt giao dch khi bn mun mt nhiu tin hn so vi ngh ngi v tn hng nhng g tt p hn ca cuc sng. Cng b tin tc: Khng ai bit c gi s bin ng nh th no khi mt tin tc c cng b. Tin tc s nh hng n xu hng di hn ca gi di hn (long-term) k c ngn hn (short-term), gi s bin ng t ngt khi tin tc c cng b. Bn ch nn giao dch vo la ny nu bn l mt thy bi v lun lun tin on ng tng lai. Lm g nu bn khng th giao dch vo nhng gi th trng si ng Nu bn sng trong cc mi gi khng hp dn hoc bn c cng vic lm khc, vy th bn khng th ngi trc my tnh vo nhng lc th trng si ng. Nu ng nh th ti c mt s gii php cho bn : 1. Chuyn sang vng mi gi tt hn nh London chng hn. Chc chn bn s phi di chuyn v bt u mt cuc sng hon ton mi, nhng t nht bn c th trade ng khng? 2. Giao dch ti ni lm vic (bn c mt cng vic tht s v trong trng hp ny sp ca bn s n sau lng v hi xem bn ang lm g). Ti khuyn bn nn sn sng vi t hp phm ALT-TAB nhanh chng chuyn i ca s lm vic. 3. Tr thnh mt swing/position trader. Mt swing/position trader s khng phi lin tc theo di th trng v bn c th kim tra hoc xem qua khi bn xong vic. 4. Giao dch vi mt phin khc d l n khng si ng. Nu bn khng th giao dch trong phin ca London hoc US, vy th trade trong phin ca Tokyo. Bn s bt u hc xem th trng bin ng nh th no v c th xy dng cc chin thut ring cho phin giao dch . Theo c nhn ti th la chn 3 v 4 l tt nht, nhng mt ln na l la chn ca bn. Cho d bn khng th giao dch nhng cng nn theo di th ton phin giao dch. Nh vic theo di bin ng gi thc t bn c th tht s hiu r c th trng tin t. Hy tin ti, vic xem mt th bin ng tht khc nhiu so vi xem mt th qu kh. Mc d bn khng th giao dch nhng hy ghi li nhng lc bn ngh mnh s tin hnh giao dch trong qu trnh theo di th. Hy thc hnh cng nhiu cng tt. THE CHOICE IS YOURS! Chng XIV : Qun l tin (Money Management) Phn ny l mt trong nhng phn quan trng nht i vi bt c ai mun tr thnh trader. Ti sao li quan trng? Chng ta ang kinh doanh kim tin v kim tin th chng ta phi hc cch qun l tin. Tr tru thay, y l mt trong nhng phn m mi ngi hay b qua nht. Nhiu trader ch nng lng thc hin giao dch m khng h quan tm n vn ang c trong ti khon. H ch xc nh h c th chu ng l bao nhiu trong mt giao dch v nhn nt giao dch. C mt t dnh cho kiu u t nh vy gi l c bc. Khi bn giao dch khng cn cc nguyn tc qun l tin th bn tht s ang nh bc. Bn khng xem xt kt qu di hn i vi ca vic u t. Thay vo bn ch xem xt li nhun trc mt. Cc nguyn tc qun l tin s khng ch bo v bn m cn mang li cho bn nhiu li nhun trong thi gian di. Nu bn khng tin ti v bn ngh rng c bc l cch lm giu, vy th hy xem v d sau : Ngi ta ti Las Vegas nh bi bng tin ca h vi hy vng thng mt vn ln v thc t c nhiu ngi thng hay khng. Vy th trn th gii cc sng bc vn lm ra tin bng cch no nu mi ngi n chi u thng? Cu tr li l mc d ngi chi thng nhng xt v lu di cc sng bi vn c li nhun bi v h ly nhiu tin hn t nhng ngi khng thng. Tht s l cc sng bi rt gii thng k. H bit r v lu di h s l ngi lm ra tin ch khng phi nhng ngi nh bc.Cho d Joe Schmoe thng 100.000$ t my nh bc, cc sng bi bit rng s c hn 100 ngi nh bc s thua v tin li tr v ti ca h. y l mt v d n gin. Cho d thua sng bc vn bit cch kim sot thua l ca h, y chnh l qun l tin. Nu bn hc cc kim sot thua l ca mnh, bn s c th kim c li nhun.

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Vy lm th no bn tr thnh mt ngi thng k giu c thay v l mt k tht bi? Drawdown and Maximum Drawdown? Chng ti bit rng qun l tin s lm ra tin cho chng ta v lu di, nhng by gi ti mun ch cho bn mt kha cnh khc. Ci g s xy ra nu bn khng s dng cc nguyn tc qun l tin? Xem v d ny : Bn c 100.000$ v bn l 50.000$. Bao nhiu phn trm ti khon ca bn mt? Cu tr li l 50%. By gi, bn phi kim bao nhiu % t 50.000$ cn li vn ca bn tr li ban u? Khng phi 50% na ri, bn phi kim 100% t 50.000$ bn c th c li s vn bn u l 100.000$. Ci ny gi l drawdown. Trong v d ny, chng ta c 50% drawdown. C mt im trong th d trn l rt d thua l v rt kh khn thu li c. Ti bit bn ang t ni : Ti s khng b mt 50% ti khon ca mnh trong mt giao dch. Tt nhin ti cng s khng hy vng th. Tuy nhin, chuyn g s xy ra nu bn b thua trong 3, 4 hoc thm ch 10 giao dch lin tip? iu khng th xy ra cho bn, ng khng? Bn c mt h thng giao dch chin thng vi t l 70%. Do s khng c chuyn bn c th b thua trong c 10 giao dch. Trong khi bn c mt h thng giao dch tht tt, hy nhn vo v d sau: Trong giao dch, chng ta lun tm kim li nhun. chnh l nguyn nhn ti sao cc trader xy dng h thng giao dch ca h. Mt h thng giao dch vi 70% kh nng sinh li nghe nh chng ta ang c mt li nhun rt tt. Nhng bi v h thng giao dch ca bn ch c 70% kh nng sinh li, c ngha l c mi 100 giao dch bn thc hin, bn s thng c 7 trn 10 giao dch phi khng no? Cha chc! Lm sao bn bit c 70 giao dch no trong tng s 100 giao dch s thng? Cu tr li l bn khng bit. Bn c th thua lin tip trong 30 giao dch u v thng trong 70 giao dch tip sau . Ngha l h thng giao dch ca bn vn c 70% kh nng sinh li, nhng bn phi t hi : Liu bn c cn tip tc tr c sau khi bn b thua trong 30 giao dch u tin? y l l do ti sao vic qun l tin bc li quan trng nh vy. Khng c vn i vi h thng giao dch ca bn, nhng cui cng bn vn s b thua. Thm ch i vi nhng ngi chi bc chuyn nghip m h xem l cch kim sng ca mnh cng c nhng lc gp vn thua ti t, v h vn cn kh nng kt thc vi thng li. l do nhng ngi nh bc gii qun l tin bc bi v h bit rng h khng th thng mi trong mi cuc chi. Thay vo , h ch liu lnh mt phn trm nh trong tng s tin ca mnh h vn c th tip tc tn ti sau nhng trn thua. l nhng g bn phi lm khi l mt trader. Ch khi ri ro mt phn nh trong ti khon giao dch bn vn c th tn ti sau nhng trn thua. Hy nh l nu bn p dng nghim chnh cc nguyn tc qun l tin bc, bn s tr thnh ch 1 sng bi v kt qu cui cng bn lun l ngi chin thng. Hy ti phc ha cho bn nhng g s xy ra khi bn qun l tin mt cch ng n v khi bn khng y l mt v d nh ch cho bn thy s khc nhau gia vic mo him mt phn nh vi vic mo him mt phn ln trong tng s vn ca bn. Bn c th thy s khc bit ln gia vic ri ro 2% so vi ri ro 10% ti khon ca bn trong mt giao dch. Nu bn thua lin tip trong 19 giao dch, bt u t 20.000 $, bn ch cn 3.002 $ nu t l ri ro l 10% cho mi giao dch. Bn mt 85% ti khon ca mnh! Nu t l ri ro l 2%, bn vn cn 13.903 $ tc bn ch mt 30% trong tng s ti khon ca mnh. D nhin iu cui cng chng ta mun cp l tn tht trong 19 giao dch lin tip, nhng thm ch nu thua 5 giao dch lin tip, bn hy nhn vo s khc nhau gia ri ro 2% v 10%. Nu bn ri ro 2%, bn s vn cn 18.447 $ . Nu bn ri ro 10% bn s ch cn 13.122 $ . Con s ny cn nh hn c s bn cn li trong trng hp nu bn b thua trong tt c 19 giao dch vi t l ri ro l 2%. Mu cht ca v d ny l bn mun xy dng nguyn tc qun l tin nh th no khi bn b thua trong mt thi gian bn vn cn vn tip tc cuc chi. Bn c th tng tng c chuyn g s xy ra nu bn thua mt 85% ti khon ca mnh? Bn s phi kim c 566% vn cn li trong ti khon c th ha vn. Hy tin ti, bn s khng mun ri vo tnh cnh u. Thc t, y l mt biu s phc ha c t l phn trm m bn phi ly li ha vn theo t l tn tht ca bn

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Bn c th thy rng bn cng b thua nhiu th bn cng kh kim li c tin b ra. l tt c l do m bn cn phi lm mi cch nhm bo v ti khon ca mnh. Vy th by gi, ti hy vng bn s nh n vo u rng bn ch b ri ro mt phn nh ti khon ca mnh trong mi giao dch c th tn ti sau vn xui ca mnh v cng trnh mt drawdown ln cho ti khon ca mnh. Phi lun ghi nh, bn mun tr thnh mt nh ci..ch khng phi tay chi bn. Risk to Reward (Ri ro v Li nhun) C mt cch khc bn c th gia tng c hi kim li l giao dch vo thi im khi m bn c kh nng thc hin giao dch thu c li nhun gp 3 ln mc chu ri ro. Nu bn em li cho mnh mt t l li nhun v ri ro l 3:1 (3:1 reward/risk), bn c mt c hi ln i n chin thng. Hy nhn v d sau y : Trong v d ny, bn c th nhn thy rng thm ch nu bn ch thng c 50% trong tng s cc giao dch thc hin, bn cng kim c 10.000 $ . Hy nh rng khi bn giao dch vi mt t l ri ro/li nhun tt th c hi chin thng ca bn s rt ln thm ch c khi t l thng ca bn thp. Tm tt :

Hy tr thnh ch sng bc, ng lm ngi chi bc! Hy nh rng cc ch sng bc l nhng nh thng k rt giu c! Drawdown l mt thc t v s xy ra vi bn trong mt vi thi im. Nu t l ri ro trong mt giao dch ca bn gim i, th drawdown ti a ca bn s gim i Ti khon ca bn cng b tn tht nhiu th bn s cng kh khn hn kim li c ha vn Ch giao dch bng mt phn nh ti khon ca bn. Cng nh cng tt. Mc khuyn co l 3% hoc thp hn. Mt giao dch ng gi l khi bn c mt t l li nhun cao so vi ri ro. T l ri ro cng cao, li nhun cng thp.

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