New York Production Forecast The States natural gas production is expected to decrease signicantly over the forecast

period, due largely to the projected decline in production from the Trenton-Black River wells and lack of new wells being drilled. As shown in Figure 32, the States annual natural gas production was expected to more than triple to about 115 Bcf in 2035. However, this forecast is predicated on the ability to produce from New Yorks shale reserves. The natural gas model18 reects a conservative Marcellus Shale natural gas production level to account for potential permitting and production difficulties related to horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing. If these difficulties are minimized, Marcellus production levels could potentially be higher. The graph would show a forecasted overall decline in production continuing through 2035 if the current prohibition on shale development continues. Regardless of actions within New York boundaries, the supply demand surplus will continue even with the current low price situation due to a shift to wet gas and associated gas from oil producing regions. Sufficient gas supplies should be available from outside the State as long as the interstate pipeline capacity exists to serve New York.
Figure 32 | New York State Gas Production Forecast (Bcf)

Source: EIA. AEO2012, Regional Dry Natural Gas Production, Reference Case Forecast, June 2012.

EIA. AEO 2012 Reference Case

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