Stats 3U03 M.

Min-Oo Assignment #1 Due: Wednesday, January 22nd, 2014 in class at the beginning of the lecture You are allowed to use appropriate software such as Matlab, R, etc. but please explain the steps and show your code

1. Two teams, A and B play a best of seven series of games. Suppose that the outcomes of successive games are independent and each is won by A with probability p and by B with probability 1 p (no tied games). Let the state of the system be represented by (a, b), where a is the number of games won by A and b is the number of games won by B. Write down the probability transition matrix. (Note that a + b 7 and the series ends when a = 4 or b = 4). 2. 3. 4. 5. Do problem 1.8 on page 36-37 in the textbook. Do problem 1.12 on page 38 in the textbook. Do problem 1.14 on page 39 in the textbook Do problem 2.4 on page 58 in the textbook.

6. Suppose that every man in a certain society has exactly three children, who independently 1 have a probability 1 2 of being a boy and 2 of being a girl. (i) Find the probability that the male line of a given man eventually becomes extinct. (ii) If a given man has 2 boys and 1 girl, what is the probability that his male line will continue forever.

7. (bonus question) Do problem 1.18 on page 40 in the textbook