BUSINESS DECESSION MAKING

Assignment
Course Title:

BTEC HND Business Management

Student Name: Edexcel No.: Centre Ref. No.: E-mail: Submit Date:

Unit No. & D/601/0578 Business Decision Making Title: Semester/ 5,6,7 Batch No. Learning LO1, LO2, LO3,LO4 Outcomes: Issued Date:

05.11.2013

31.12.2013

Assignmen Decision making process Assessor Mr. Faiz t Title: : of real time business

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Final Grade Awarded :

Assessor Signature: IV Signature:

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BUSINESS DECESSION MAKING

Table of Contents
TASK 1 Scenario:....................................................................................................................... 3 TASK 2 ....................................................................................................................................... 8 TASK 3 ..................................................................................................................................... 12 TASK 4 ..................................................................................................................................... 19 References ................................................................................................................................ 23

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TASK 1 Scenario:
You have been approached by Siddhalepa Group of Companies, to conduct a research to improve customer awareness and satisfaction in the Hotels and Spas belonging to this group. You have been approached to conduct a thorough research and finally present the details to the group itself.

1.1

Create a plan for the collection of primary and secondary data for a given business problem. They are two types of sources that can be used when conducting a research: Primary and Secondary. Primary sources give first-hand results that are provided by a research or study directed specifically for the case in question. Secondary sources usually interpretation or an analysis of a primary source. In the case of SIDDHALEPA GROUP OF COMPANIES, the usual sequence would be to start by searching for potential reasons for the low customer satisfaction, in other words secondary sources to reduce the range of possibilities. Internet and Books are usually the best secondary sources to start the search. The next step for SIDDHALEPA GROUP OF COMPANIES would be to focus on primary sources that provide more accurate and relevant information. SIDDHALEPA GROUP OF COMPANIES has already identified the main problem by interviewing the customers that actually left the firm. After acknowledging the customers satisfaction issue, SIDDHALEPA GROUP OF COMPANIES has to conduct a survey that will give them a closer insight on the reasons why the customers are not satisfied. The survey will provide SIDDHALEPA GROUP OF COMPANIES with relevant information that will help find solutions for the current concerns.

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1.2 Present the survey methodology and sampling frame used. To create the right survey, SIDDHALEPA GROUP OF COMPANIES has to define its target population, the sample it is focusing on and how they both are related with the sampling frame. -A population is the compilation of all the people or items that are subject to the study: For SIDDHALEPA GROUP OF COMPANIESs case it is All the customers. -A sample is the particular group of the population that is being observed or studied. -A sampling frame is the group that can be studied in a certain population. The goal of SIDDHALEPA GROUP OF COMPANIES is to create a thought-through survey that will provide descriptive statistics that will be inferred to create a more successful strategy. The survey methodology is about sampling a certain population based on pre chosen characteristics. In the case of SIDDHALEPA GROUP OF COMPANIES, the population and the sample are the same: All the customers. Having the whole population as a sampling frame is a positive characteristic. Lets assume to take a sample size that the total number of customers that visits the hotel and Spa that is part of SIDDHALEPA GROUP OF COMPANIES is 150, it is a manageable population plus having the opportunity to survey all the customers will give very accurate results. After collecting the results, SIDDHALEPA GROUP OF COMPANIES will look at the outcomes in a general way then divide the customers by function/level of management to have a more detailed look. The survey will be close-ended questions mostly with some room for suggestions. It will be in a multiple-choice format with answer based on a scale of three.

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BUSINESS DECESSION MAKING 1.3 Design a questionnaire for a given business problem. 1) What professional background are you coming from? a. Manager b. Executive c. Office assistant d. Other _______________ 2) How long have you been visiting Hotel and Spa under SIDDHALEPA GROUP OF COMPANIES? a. 1 year or less b. 2 years c. 3 years d. 4 years or more: ___ years. 3) How well do you think you are satisfied by the service you paid for? a. Extremely well b. Well c. Not Well d. Comments: ___________________________________________________________________________ ___________________________________________________________________________

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BUSINESS DECESSION MAKING 4) How are the options of services provided to you? a. Best b. Good c. Unsatisfactory d. Comments: ___________________________________________________________________________ ___________________________________________________________________________ 5) How is the level of stress relief you receive in this hotel and spa after a hectic day during your work? a. Extremely high b. High c. Low d. Comments: ___________________________________________________________________________ ___________________________________________________________________________ 6) As a customer how would you describe the supervisors overall management? a. Extremely satisfactory b. Satisfactory c. Unsatisfactory d. Comments: ___________________________________________________________________________ ___________________________________________________________________________

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BUSINESS DECESSION MAKING 7) Do you feel appreciated and valued by the co-workers and service providers? a. Extremely appreciated b. Appreciated c. Not Appreciated d. Comments: ___________________________________________________________________________ _______________________________________________________________ 8) How satisfied are you with your overall service and options at this hotel and spa? a. Extremely satisfied b. Satisfied c. Unsatisfied d. Comments: ___________________________________________________________________________ ___________________________________________________________________________ 9) How likely would you be willing to change your usual destination of this hotel and spa under SIDDHALEPA GROUP OF COMPANIES to another hotel? a. Extremely likely b. Likely c. Unlikely 10) Personally, What is the most important aspect of this Hotel and Spa under SIDDHALEPA GROUP OF COMPANIES you think should work more at? (Employercustomers relationship) ___________________________________________________________________________ ___________________________________________________________________________

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TASK 2
2.1 a) As mentioned before, SIDDHALEPA GROUP OF COMPANIES has 150 customers. After conducting the survey, the Human Resources Management decided to study the results in a specific way. They are going to separate the results based on the functions: Managers, Executives, and Assistants/other based on their income and spending nature or behaviour. Questions (refer above) Managers Executives Assistance/other Q2 - 80% said 3 years or more 70% said 1 year or less 60% said 2 to 3 years Q3- 90% said Well 60% said NOT Well 70% said EXTREMELY well Q4 - 70% said Good 80% said Unsatisfactory 60% said Best Q5 - 90% said High 80% said Extremely High 70% said Low Q6 - 70 % said Satisfactory 90% said Unsatisfactory 60% said Extremely Unsatisfactory Q7 - 80% said Appreciated 60% said Not appreciated (only fellow Executives) 70% said extremely appreciated (not by managers) Q8- 80% said Satisfied 70% said unsatisfied 60% said extremely unsatisfied Q9- 80% said Unlikely 70% said extremely likely 60% said likely Q10 No repeated suggestion Better Managers Better management The results of the survey have clearly showed that the main unsatisfied customers are the Executives who are followed by the assistants. Question threes results show clearly that the money is not the motive for SIDDHALEPA GROUP OF COMPANIESs customers early departures.

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BUSINESS DECESSION MAKING It is clear that the problem that SIDDHALEPA GROUP OF COMPANIES is facing is related to their management, especially the quality of their service provided. This huge disappointment has been clearly proven in the last three questions where it states that most of them are not satisfied with their choice of hotel and are most likely going to look for another option. SIDDHALEPA GROUP OF COMPANIES has distinctly found out what is the problem: Managers and Service Rendition. Their strategy is failing which is dragging the whole company down. The most considerable solution would be to start by meeting with 20 managers, sharing the results with them and discuss what potential changes that can be made are. The HRM will need to keep track of the new managerial strategies and see if they are effective and are implemented in the right way. b) Analyse the data using measures of dispersion. Taking the example of Question 8, SIDDHALEPA GROUP OF COMPANIESs managers answers data look as follows: Managers: 16 were satisfied, 1 was unsatisfied and 3 were extremely satisfied. Let us assume that the customers had also to rank their level of satisfaction based on a scale of 0 to 20. 0 meant that the customers were not satisfied at all and 20 meant that they were extremely satisfied. Managers scores: 5, 10, 10, 10, 11, 11, 11, 11, 12, 12, 12, 12, 12, 13, 13, 13, 14, 18, 19, 19. Mean: 5, 10, 10, 10, 11, 11, 11, 11, 12, 12, 12, 12, 12, 13, 13, 13, 14, 18, 19, 19 = 12.4 20 Median: 12 Mode: 12

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BUSINESS DECESSION MAKING Standard deviation: (13 Square root [3/2])/5= about 3.1843 Range: 19 5 =14 Using these measures of dispersion becomes very important when it comes to evaluating the relevance of a survey. Identifying the outliers, in this case the 5 is the main one, is very important. It clears out the misleading data to form educated results. For the case of the example above, the mean and the median are very close, the standard deviation is minor and there are no significant outliers. All these results assure us that for this case scores can be a used in relevant decision making processes. 2.2 Describe how quartiles, percentiles, correlation coefficient are used to draw useful conclusions in a business context. Data: 5, 10, 10, 10, 11, 11, 11, 11, 12, 12, 12, 12, 12, 13, 13, 13, 14, 18, 19, 19. -The first quartile (Q1) or the 25th percentile represents the number that 25% of the numbers in the data given are smaller than. -The second quartile (Q2) of the 50th percentile is the median. 50% are greater than it and 50% are smaller than it. -The third quartile (Q3) or the 75th percentile represents the number that 75% of the data is less than. -The fourth quartile (Q4) is the largest number in the number line, 100% are smaller than it. In the example of the survey, quartiles will clearly show what every percentage of the customers scored and where the majority lies. This method can also be very important when studying ranges of income or credits. Taken the numbers above into consideration: Q1 = 11 Q3 = 13 Q2 = 12 Q4 = 19

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BUSINESS DECESSION MAKING The correlation coefficient is a measure that determines the linear relationship between two related variables. It is calculated by dividing the covariance of both variables by the product of their standard deviation. The correlation coefficient equation is symbolized as: It is not very relevant to the survey scenario but it can be in numerous other business cases. If we were to compare the customers satisfaction with their output, the correlation coefficient would be very helpful to compare, contrast and monitor the relationship. The correlation coefficient is usually represented as a line graph with all the data plugged in as points to form a two-dimensional scatter plot. The correlation coefficient graph looks like this:

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BUSINESS DECESSION MAKING

TASK 3

How long have you been Visiting the Hotel

90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 3 YEARS OR MORE 1 YEAR OR LESS 2 TO 3 YEARS

FIG 1.1

After reviewing the question asked to customers about how often do the visit the hotel. The responses have been quite interesting that most of them have been quite familiar with the hotel and they have been visiting the hotel with the highest number being 3 years and more.

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100 90 80 70 60 Column2 50 40 30 20 10 0 well Not well Extremely Well Column1 Series 1

FIG1.2

For the service that these customers pay for the response received summed up was they were satisfied was majority said they were well satisfied right behind note well satisfied and finally on a balanced note extremely well satisfied.

90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Best Good Unsatisfactory Column2 Column1 Series 1

FIG1.3

Variety of options are provided to the customers who come to visit these hotel and spa and when asked how well are these variety of options provided to them the responses are as follows.
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100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 High Extremely High Low Column2 Column1 Series 1

FIG 1.4

After a long hectic day when they come to the hotel to relax how well they are relief and stress management received by the customers most of them responded they are highly satisfied.

90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Satisfactory Unsatisfactory Extremely unsatisfactory

Series 1 Column1 Column2

FIG 1.5

A supervisor has to make sure the service reaches the entire customer and theyre content with the services. Now the customers perspective of how the supervisor manages the subordinates in coordinating them to provide the customers with their options and needs the result depicted they were unsatisfactory.

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BUSINESS DECESSION MAKING

80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Appreciated Extremely Aprreciated Not Appreciated Series 1 Column1 Column2

FIG1.6 The customers feel appreciated by the co-workers of this Hotel and they seem happy with the hospitality provided to them, Followed by others who had their personal opinion to provide.

80 60 Series 1 40 20 0 Unlikely Extremely Ikely Likely Column1 Column2

FIG1.7

When customers see new destinations they opt to go there to try it out, if the service and varieties seems to attract them they opt for it if not they prefer their usual spot. similarly when asked how likely are the chances customers would prefer to choose another option replacing this present hotel and spa a majority of them responded they wouldnt except for the part that they just have to bring slight changes in management and options or varieties to choose from and they will remain loyal .

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BUSINESS DECESSION MAKING 3.2 Use trend lines in spread sheet graphs to assist in forecasting for

specified business information and thus inform decision-making.

The line starts at (.5, 2.4) and continues to increase. The unusual part is at the point (15, 5.2) where the line stops to increase. This phenomenon can help forecast where the usual next duration are on the line and also shows us how from the 5.5 hours point the duration are outside the normal and the extremes like the 7.3 can be considered as outliers. This develops the idea that the customers are pretty satisfied with the hotel and spa just the improvement in Service providers can bring them better business in future.

50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 y = 2x Poly. (Rated by Customers) Linear (service result ) y = 0.9107x2 - 4.6964x + 12.393 service result Rated by Customers

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BUSINESS DECESSION MAKING 3.3 Prepare a formal business report.

Title: Customer Gratification Methodology: Application of Statistical methods and Skills to percept ionize service offered Abstract: This study is done compare the different durations Customers take to understand how well is the service offered to them good enough satisfactory or not. The sample that will be taken in consideration will be of 20 Customers. After finding out that the Rating of Services was quite different, it can be assumed that the different methods of study differed between the 20 Customers in the sample. Analysis: The overall experiment showed good results. The numbers did not vary a lot were close to the mean, which was 8.64 Rate of average among 10 of study. They were some outliers both at the top and the bottom, which show that some Customers used different Observation and satisfactory techniques. Conclusion: The experiment was successful and all the information that was expected to be extracted was extracted. For future trials, it would be interesting to even compare the actual marks the Customers got in the test and try to find out what is the best way to improve the service Quality including other variables like Spa Treatment and International Cuisines to Offer.

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BUSINESS DECESSION MAKING

SCENARIO 2

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BUSINESS DECESSION MAKING TASK 4

4.1 A managers effectiveness is largely dependent on the existence of an equally effective management information system MIS. An MIS provides information on a variety of different organizational functions, allowing a manager to plan, monitor, and evaluate operations and performance. MIS outputs also enable a manager to make strategic decisions and intelligent choices that shape an organizations future vision and mission. Monitoring and evaluation are twin sisters. They assist management in knowing whether program objectives are being achieved, to what extent there is need for mid-course correction to address emerging problems, in the environment, or and assess employees efficienc y, and maintenance of standards. Both examine indicators, targets, criteria and standards. The meanings and definitions of monitoring and evaluation are often contentious because of the two activities substantial overlap. Following are the useful information that should be stored in each management level Do our organizations MIS collect all the data we need, and do we Use all the data it collects? Is our MIS understood by staff at all levels, or is it complicated with many data elements, variables, formats, and procedures? Does our MIS enable us to link program and financial information? How often do we as a team review data and use it as a basis for planning, resource allocation, problem-solving, program monitoring, and other decision-making? Do we use data to provide feedback to all levels of the organization? Can we create user-friendly presentations of our data to share information with others? How often do we monitor, and what do we do with the information and insights we gather? Do we use tools or instruments such as checklists systematically during monitoring? How do we use results of assessments and evaluations?
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4.2 Prepare a project plan for an activity and identify the earliest and the latest event time to identify the critical path Title: Test preparation Methodology: Application of Statistical methods and Skills Abstract: This study is done compare the different durations students take to prepare for a statistics test. The sample that will be taken in consideration will be of 20 students. After finding out that the times were quite different, it can be assumed that the different methods of study differed between the 20 students in the sample. Analysis: The overall experiment showed good results. The numbers did not vary a lot were close to the mean, which was 4.64 hours of study. They were some outliers both at the top and the bottom, which show that some students used different study techniques. Conclusion The experiment was successful and all the information that were expected to be extracted were extracted. For future trials, it would be interesting to even compare the actual marks the students got in the test and try to find out what is the best way to study including other variables like class attendance or disturbance.

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BUSINESS DECESSION MAKING 4.3 Evaluate the financial viability of the new project using NPV, IRR, ARR and payback period. Advise the management whether the project should be undertaken or not When the data was computed in Microsoft Excel as follows: Year Cash flow NPV IRR PV 0 -140000 -140000,00 -140000,00 0,00 1 25000 22321,43 19143,54 22321,43 2 40000 31887,76 23454,42 31887,76 3 45000 32030,11 20205,03 32030,11 4 60000 38131,08 20629,12 38131,08 5 100000 56742,69 26327,63 56742,69 6 150000 75994,67 30240,25 75994,67 137,338.32 0,00 257107,73 The graphs under show that based on the IRR and the NPV analysis the project is profitable and should be accepted. The IRR was 18%, which surpassed the cost that was considered at 12%. When all the cash flow ins and outs were added the NPV was positive 137,338.32, which proves that the project is viable.

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References
ADFC (2013) Untitled. [online] Available at: http://www.dcf.state.fl.us/admin/publications/docs/empsatis.pdf [Accessed:20 Jan 2014]. En.wikipedia.org (1996) Survey methodology - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. [online] Available at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survey_methodology [Accessed:20 Jan 2014]. En.wikipedia.org (2013) Correlation coefficient - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. [online] Available at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation_coefficient [Accessed:20 Jan 2014]. Google Books (n.d.) Business Statistics. [online] Available at: http://books.google.co.uk/books?id=KQ25WExx5usC&pg=PA285&lpg=PA285&dq=mean+ standard+deviation+customers+satisfaction&source=bl&ots=Jkj_31QSbT&sig=u1pyrGdUfQ uVuF_xADA6u5NOnOE&hl=en&sa=X&ei=j1p9UZqnC4epOra4gfgJ&ved=0CEMQ6AEw Ag#v=onepage&q=mean%20standard%20deviation%20customers%20satisfaction&f=false [Accessed:20 Jan 2014]. Hspm.sph.sc.edu (2009) NPV and IRR -- Measures for Evaluating Investments. [online] Available at: http://hspm.sph.sc.edu/courses/econ/invest/invest.html [Accessed:20 Jan 2014]. Investopedia.com (2013) Correlation Coefficient Definition | Investopedia. [online] Available at: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/correlationcoefficient.asp [Accessed:20 Jan 2014]. Ncalculators.com (2013) Correlation Coefficient Example. [online] Available at: http://ncalculators.com/math-worksheets/correlation-coefficient-example.htm [Accessed:20 Jan 2014]. Princeton.edu (n.d.) Primary vs Secondary Sources. [online] Available at: http://www.princeton.edu/~refdesk/primary2.html [Accessed:20 Jan 2014]. Simon.cs.vt.edu (n.d.) Measures of Dispersion I. [online] Available at: http://simon.cs.vt.edu/SoSci/converted/Dispersion_I/ [Accessed:20 Jan 2014]. Simon.cs.vt.edu (n.d.) Untitled. [online] Available at: http://simon.cs.vt.edu/SoSci/converted/Correlation/whcrop1b.gif [Accessed:20 Jan 2014].

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BUSINESS DECESSION MAKING Surveymonkey.com (n.d.) Customers Satisfaction Template Survey. [online] Available at: http://www.surveymonkey.com/s/Job-Satisfaction-Survey-Template [Accessed:20 Jan 2014]. Unknown. (2013) Untitled. [online] Available at: http://college.cengage.com/mathematics/larson/trigonometry/6e/shared/appendix/median.pdf [Accessed:20 Jan 2014]. Yale.edu (1918) Primary Sources: What Are Primary Sources?. [online] Available at: http://www.yale.edu/collections_collaborative/primarysources/primarysources.html [Accessed:20 Jan 2014].

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