INVESTMENT YEAR BOOK

2013
The Best of Investment Articles in
2013 by Mr.Messenger

Copyright 2013

1|Page

SEQUESTRATION ... ?

SET Index

BTSGIF Infrastructure Fund

11

16

20

!!

26

30

Fed QE ? Fed QE ?

36

44

5

New High

50

"Abenomics" ?

56

62

Affordable Care Act () ?

71

Gold Demand

74

Birds-eye view
2014

79

SET Index

81

10

2013

88

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3
Investment Year Book 2013

E-Book



PANTIP.COM Mr.Messenger

Mr.Messenger
http://twitter.com/MrMessenger
http://iammrmessenger.com
http://facebook.com/SinthornCafe

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SEQUESTRATION ... ?
5 2013 PANTIP.COM

Deadline 1 ..

Sequestration .

Q : Sequestration ?
A: Sequestration
$1.2trillion 2556

4|Page

5|Page
$1.2trillion

$85,000million $42,500Million

Q : ?
A : Budget Control Act
2556-2564 (.. 2013-2021)

Sequestration

Q : Sequestration ?
A : Fiscal Cliff Obama
2
Deadline 1 .. T_T

Q : ?
A : Sequestration
Ben Bernanke

5|Page

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26 ..
2557 ..
19 .. Debt
Ceiling - -
Democrat Republican
3

Q : ?
A : Sequestration $85,000million
1 .. 30 .. 7

Congressional Budget Office (CBO)
750,000 IMF
Sequestration GDP 0.5%

Q : Recession >.<
A :
Sequestration
2-3 2557

Q : Democrat Republican ?
A : Democrat Democrat

Republican Democrat

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Republican (
)

Q :

\^o^/
A :
Super Deadline 19 .. Debt Ceiling

2011 S&P Credit Rating
2012

Q :

Sequestration ?

A :



(

)

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Fiscal Cliff

$600,000Million
15%

^^

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SET Index
19 2013 IAMMRMESSENGER.COM

15 ..

20
10 .. 56 83
1,274
1,600 25% 5


1,700 ?? 1,800 ??
1,600
?
1,600

-
-
- 100
5

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, Beating the Street

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BTSGIF Infrastructure Fund

30 2013 IAMMRMESSENGER.COM

Infrastructure Fund IPO

4 ..


Valuation
:D
BTSGIF ?
- BTSGIF
() (
BTS )

2 ( )
23.5 . .
() (BTSC) BTS 17 (
4 2572)

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(Capital Expenditure)


?
- Infrastructure Fund

10 ...

BTSGIF Infrastructure Fund
Infrastructure Fund ?
- 10

( 544) .. 2555
?
-
17 (
30 13 5 .. 2542 17 )
17
17 BTSGIF

.

IPO ?
- 10.40 10.80
5 (1 )
Bookbuilding

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?
-
90 1
17

0
BTSGIF BTS?
- BTSGIF BTSC ( )
BTS BTSC 97.5%
BTSGIF 1/3
BTSC ( BTS)
BTS
(VGI)
( 30 )
BTSGIF
BTSGIF ?
- 17
Growth
2555 3,600 17 61,200
IPO 60,000 1,200


Wave ?
BTSC 2542 (13 )

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(CAGR) 10.9% ( 5
.. 2542 4 .. 2543 55 5 .. 2554 18 .. 2555
191 )

(Effective fare)
(Authorized fare) . ( 30
) Authorized fare 18.79 56.36 Effective fare 15
40 BTSC Authorized fare
( 2556-2557

8-9 8-9%
5%-6%
DCF 17 9 8.8%
5%

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10.80 / 17 20.84
/ 5.47% NPV IRR 6.97%

5.47%


http://www.bblam.co.th/btsgif/

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?
13 2013 PANTIP.COM

$1,530
$1,480
$1,530/$1,500

Cut Loss ?
-

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- Subprime 2008 Hedge Against Overall
Risk US
Dollar "The Real Safe Haven" $1,000 8
$700

!! $700 ?
- !!??!! 10
... 200 ()
10

200 $1,433

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$1,433 ?
?
- Short Gold Futures !!!
!!
2008 $700
200
RSI Oversold Zone 10 ()

Cut Loss
$1,433

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, THE WARREN BUFFETT WAY

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27 2013 PANTIP.COM

Action 10% 1

!! QE
?
2013 THB

Asian Currency Basket

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?
Fund Flow 3
1.
2.
3. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)

2
Subprime . Market Share Daily Volume
Trade 30% 1
18%

?
2

SET Index ( ) 2012

Fund Flow ?
- Allocation

?

2010 2012
7 11% (Market Share)

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2007 1% 7.5
10%

?
10 3.4%


?

Fund Flow 2552

2.27

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1.8
(FDI) 9.59

Trade Balance 4
52 1.12 ( ) 2.61
55 2556

?
BOT
. 2
2

(BOT)
(.)

Action

(Inflation Linked Bond) 40,000-50,000

.

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?

...
Action

2
1.
2.
Earnings Yield Gap
(Market Earning Yield Bond Yield 1 Yr)

Capital Control 30%

50%
28.62 /USD 29.24 /USD 2%

Action

Upside BOT

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Money Market
0.25%
( )

. ..

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!!
12 2013 PANTIP.COM

...
?
?
?
?

""


Lifestyle
8-9 ( - -")



10-20 30

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4-5

?
?

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" " ( )

10-20%

. 600
20,000

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4 ""
1.
2.
3.
4.
4
""

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6
13 2013 IAMMRMESSENGER.COM

Sinthorn Fanpage Twitter

6

6
INGTEF-DIV . , KTSE . , BKD . ,
KFSDIV . , 1VAL-D . HI-DIV .
3
1.
2.

3.

3 2

?


Capital Gain

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MorningStar ?
MorningStar
0 5
6 4 6
MorningStar Rating 1 3 5

Rating MorningStar
Download Methodology
http://www.wealthmagik.com/Document/Methodology/MstarRatingMethodology.pdf

NAV ?
NAV
NAV NAV
NAV
A NAV 5 B NAV 30

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NAV A 5
NAV A B 10 ?

NAV
NAV NAV

NAV NAV
90%
6-5% + Capital Gain 10%

1 3 5 ?


3 5 1
3-5 1
2 1



Concept



Capital Gain 6
Excess
Return

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Standard Deviation (S.D.)
NAV
S.D.

Growth Stock Turnaround Stock
S.D. 1-2 bps
S.D. 5-10bps

S.D. S.D. 5

Sharpe Ratio

S.D. Sharpe Ratio

Sharpe Ratio 1
1
20% S.D. 20%
? 20% 20%
0% Sharpe

Information Ratio Benchmark

Sharpe
Sharpe Information Ratio
(Benchmark) Benchmark 6 SET Index
Information Ratio
Benchmark

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Expense Ratio
Expense Ratio Front-end Back-end Fee

?

Expense Ratio

NAV

NAV

MorningStar Rating 4 5 (
)
3 5 1VAL-D KFSDIV 2
( 1 NAV
)
S.D. BKD 1VALD KFSDIV
Sharpe Ratio 1VAL-D KFSDIV
Information Ratio 3 HI-DIV 5
HI-DIV Subprime
KFSDIV
Information Ratio 3 3 ( 1VAL-D) 5
KFSDIV

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Expense Ratio KFSDIV Brokerage
Fee

KFSDIV 1VAL-D

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Fed QE ?
14 .. 2013 PANTIP.COM

FOMC
FOMC QE3 QE4
$85,000 million
2
QE
..
10 Nikkei
Developed market Emerging Market ()

QE

QE US Dollar

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Fed QE
Dollar Index ()
QE
Dollar Index QE USD
QE1 QE2

QE3 4
USD

??

GDP Growth Fed
QE !!

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??

USD
1.
Research MBKET Bond Yield

QE Demand

Bond Fund Templeton
World Bond Aberdeen Emerging
Opportunities Bond

PIMCO

Emerging Local
..

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2.

Valuation

QE

Valuation
PE PE S.D. +2

3.

.. QE Subprime
Crisis Theme USD
... QE

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Fund Flow
QE Crisis
??
Crisis
QE
.. QE
QE

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Grand Sale 2011 Debt Ceiling

"
"

??

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Bond Yield

??

1. QE
2. Bullish
3.
!! ()
QE
QE Fed

( )
Like
https://www.facebook.com/SinthornCafe

MBKET, Bloomberg, UBS, Standard Charted Private Bank, BISNEWS

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"

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?
9 .. 2013 PANTIP.COM

Ben Bernanke QE



Subprime 2008


2
Subprime
45% GDP GDP
40% 40%
GDP

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GDP Growth 7.5%
4 1 GDP
HSBC, Morgan Stanley,
UBS Goldman Sachs GDP Growth
7.5% !!

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?

Fitch Rating
Credit Suisse Research Paper . .
Subprime
124% 2003 190%
Shadow Banking
Shadow Banking
Trust


()
Trust




(G)

GDP
Bank of America Merrill Lynch $5 GDP $3
( $2 )

RRR 2
Trust

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Package

(LGFVs)

Trust
LGFVs
Package Bank of China
Package Package

Trust Credit Suisse 50%
2555 Shadow Banking

Shadow Banking ?
Subprime Shadow Banking CDOs

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Domino Effect

2008

Lehman Brothers

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...
"
"

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5 New High
13 .. 2013 IAMMRMESSENGER.COM

6
10-20


100%

1. Fed () QE

Yield Gap
()

.. ..

FOMC Statement
QE

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2. 7.5%
() GDP Growth
7.0% Shadow Banking



GDP Growth
( 30%)

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3.



()


7% 5%
GDP 5%

4.

350,000-500,000
300

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5. . 3.5
2
. 3.5

1



. . 2.2


Infrastructure

5 3

Investment Government
Spending GDP C
(Consumption) GDP Growth
Future
Income

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SET Index


GDP Growth 4.5%

Fund Flow Fundamental
Key Factor QE

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-- --

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"Abenomics" ?
24 .. 2013 PANTIP.COM

"Abenomics"
3 "Three Arrows 3 "
Abenomics 3
2

.. 1989
6 4 ( 100 400
)

!!

12

.... Subprime 2008

Abenomics
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GDP Growth Inflation GDP Growth
2% ()
3 Abenomics

1
Dovish
75,000
2557 75,000
QE3 QE4 85,000

2.5

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86 100
16%
2.0%
2557
2
10.3

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4
1.
2. ,
,

3.
4.

Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi (BTMU) Tender Offer

Abenomics
Cheap Money Asset

3
.

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LDP
.. LDP


Abenomics ?
3 2557
2%
75,000
QE Infinity
Fed QE
QE

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Abenomics work
Nikkei .. ..

Abenomics work


20 Abenomics

Abenomics

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?
25 .. 2013 PANTIP.COM

QE 2
Fund Flow

GDP Growth
3.3% 3.1% IMF
( IMF )
Abenomics (
>> http://pantip.com/topic/30759630)

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GDP 2 (DM)
(EM)
DM EM >>
http://www.krungsri.com/exclusive/FileUpload/Download/PromotionsFile_15T
H-18-Investment%20Insights-Emerging%20Market(KSE).pdf
40 GDP (EM)
(Highlight )
Subprime
Crisis 2008

"QE"
4 2009 ?

QE

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Investment Company Institute (ICI)
..
Net Outflow 2009

??
?
2008
Net Outflow

EM

EM ASEAN ASEAN
( ) Global Emerging
Market 3 ROE BV TIP
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1.
2.
3. (AEC)
3 QE
..

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..
Forward P/E TIP (Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines)
Forward P/E
21

??
3 TIP Basket
Allocation
3 ()
3

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2 3 TIP
Outperform QE

TIP

?
BofAML Subprime
DM EM
TIP 3

Dow Jones S&P500 All Time High

EM DM QE

()

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QE

... Ben Bernanke Fed 2

Lawrence Summers Janet Yellen Obama

Janet Yellen (Dovish) Bernanke
FOMC Fed

Fund Flow
1-2
1. GDP 1 2

2. . 2
2
25%

GDP "Technical Recession" .

(EPS)
EPS SET Index 12%
Fund Flow Re-balancing
.

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Fund Flow
QE GDP Growth 2


SET Index New High

Morgan Stanley, BofAML, JPMorgan, Krungsri Asset
Management

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Affordable Care Act ()

?
1 .. 2013 PANTIP.COM

Affordable Care Act Obama Care

2010
3
1. ( > 60 ) Medicare
2. Mecicaid
3. (. . . )


40

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Affordable Care Act
(Medicare)
> 65


( )
Obama Care 33

50 ...

""
PIIGS
Affordable Care Act
(Debt Ceiling) 17 ..

...

Affordable Care Act

50 30
(Full
Time) 35%
(?)
Full Time Cost
??

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... 55 57

Obama Care



1. ?
2. ?
3.

QE Tapering QE
Hot Money

QE ... !!

??

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Gold Demand
23 .. 2013 MONEYCHANNEL.CO.TH

2-3





ABC
5 30-50%





$1,180 1-2
$1,500-$1,800 ?

WGC 2

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Investment Demand ( )
, ETF
Demand ETFs 1
2 Demand
Hedge Fund SPDR Gold Trust
ETF Paulson Soros
Hedge Fund

Fed
QE Tapering
FOMC Fed Tapering
Government Shutdown
(Debt Ceiling) ..

Hedge Fund ETF ?

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SPDR Gold Trust
1,350 2013
8 SPDR Gold 900
Subprime 2009

ETF


Demand ETFs
Gold Demand 2003
2012 Demand Central Bank
2003-2009
EUR

US Dollar

Demand
Wealth
SPDR Gold Trust ETF
Subprime

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....

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Birds-eye view 2014

12 .. 2013 IAMMRMESSENGER.COM

2013


..
TIP (Thailand
Indonesia Philippines)




2-3

GDP 5%
3%
GDP

QE Tapering


Fund Flow

?
- Unemployment Rate PMI
5 Full Capacity
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LTRO GDP
Recession
20%
(Cost of Funding)

2
(
)
Make Sure

Theme 2014
1. :

Margin
2. :

3. :


2014
4. !! :


Asset Allocation Model
10%

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SET Index
12 .. 2013 IAMMRMESSENGER.COM

-182,464.56
( 12 .. 2556)
2008
?
.. TIP

TIP
5 .. 20%

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3
1.

QE Tapering 3
TIP
.
!!

QE
QE

Congress
15 ..
2 (Sequester)
2 Government Shutdown
Debt Ceiling

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Wallstreet !! FOMC Tapering
18 .. ?

2.
.
28.5 /USD 19 ..

GDP . GDP
2013 2014 GDP

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- Demand

-


- . . 2
()
- Export of Service

?
Equity Fund Flow
3.

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3. (Developed Markets)

QE
Abenomics

QE Tapering FOMC .
QE

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?
200,000
2008

(
) 2,000 - 4,000

Valuation
P/E P/BV (
ASEAN)
ASEAN PE 20
20 S&P500 Upside

J.P.Morgan Asset Management

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Valuation 3

Fund Flow

?


?
...

Merry X'Mas & Happy New Year

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1.

.. ()

2. ... ()
3.
4. QE
Hot Money ()
5.
... 10-20

6. (
)
7. (
)
8. Best Seller Se-ed 1 10 3
Margin 2
!!
9. 20%
(
)
10. "" T_T

-- Mr.Messenger --

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