Professional Documents
Culture Documents
(...)
2553
) :
)
2553
(TDRI)
(...)
...
::
: :
::
(...)
:
: :
) :
:
(welfare cost)
( )
:
2548/49
:
2551-2552
5.24 2548/49
(implicit cost) 51,758.26
19,130
:
-16,609.94
-17,720.99 : :
:
56 63 :
( )
15,853
3,276.8
: 37.25
18 4.2
23.4
: :
: :
( 55
) :
:
(contingent liability)
( )
:
(social cost) :
:
:
1
:
: (:
) :
10
82
10 10 :
: : :
ii
: :
(re-insurance)
: :
:
::
: : :
iii
Abstract
Rent Seeking Activities and The Political Economy of the Paddy Pledging Market
Intervention Measures
The objectives of this study are three-fold. Firstly, the study will estimate the cost, revenue,
loss and welfare cost of the paddy pledging program in year 2005/06. The second objective is estimate
the economic rents that are captured by participants of the program, i.e., farmers, rice millers,
warehouse owners, surveyors, exporters and government officials. Their rent-seeking activities,
including corruption behavior, will also be described. Finally, the economic impact of the paddy
pledging program on production cost, quality of rice, export competitiveness and rice market structure
will be also analysed. The study uses the paddy pledging program in 2005/06 as a case study because
all of the rice in this program was sold old and the high guarantee price which resulted in a large
amount of pledged paddy is similar to the situation in 2008-09.
The costs of the program, which include the financial and some implicit cost, are estimated at
51,758.26 million baht and the loss is 19,130 million baht, of which 15,853 million baht are economic
rent, and the rest are the operation costs and storage loss. The welfare cost is slightly lower (16,60917,721 million baht). Although the consumers had to pay higher rice price, the farmers who did not
participate in the program also benefited from the higher paddy price.
The differences between the guaranteed prices of paddy and their market prices as well as the
fact that the prices that government sell their rice are lower than the market price generate the
economic rents for those involved in the program. The other sources of rents are the milling fee and
warehouse rental costs which are higher than the market rates. The study finds that the farmers capture
as much as 37.25% of the loss. About 23.4% of the rent is captured by exporters, 18% to the rice
millers, 4.2% to the warehouse owners and surveyors, and 17% are the loss due to storage and
operating expenses of the program. The politicians and government officials share parts of the rents
accrued to rice millers, warehouse owners and exporters. This study did not provide the estimates due
to data unavailability. Since most of the benefits (55% of rent) did not go to the farmers, the paddy
pledging program is the costly policy of subsidizing farmers. In addition, most of the rents are
captured by the well-to-do farmers in the irrigated areas, and a few large-scale exporters.
Various kinds of rent seeking activities are identified in this study, some of them include the
adoption of short duration varieties (70-75 days) which negatively affect rice quality, and the excessive
capacity expansion of rice mills. These activities are rent dissipating. In addition, the program is also
plagued with corruption at all stages of intervention. In stead of dissipation of real resources,
corruption is the outright transfer of money. These activities may have negative impact on economic
growth.
Finally, since the government has become the largest rice trader, the program has resulted in
negative impact on cost of production, export competitiveness and competition in the rice markets.
For these reason, the paddy pledging program should be abolished.
This study recommends a quasi put option program as a direct means to subsidize the
farmers. Its objective is to provide a price insurance policy for the farmers so that they do not suffer
loss from their paddy sale. The new policy does not aim at shoring up the market prices of paddy.
Every farmer, including those who do not have the marketable surplus, can insure their crop up to a
maximum of 10 to 20 ton per household. One major advantage of this policy is that the government
will not involve in the rice business. If the market (or reference) price is lower than the insured price at
the harvesting time, the Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives will pay the difference to
the farmers. The farmer do not sell any rice to the government as in the case of paddy pledging
program. Therefore, the competition in the rice markets will be restored.
vi
....................................................................................................................................................................... I
........................................................................................................................................................................................ I
ABSTRACT................................................................................................................................................................................V
) 1 ................................................................................................................................................................................1
1.1 .................................................................................................................................................................................1
1.2 ...................................................................................................................................................................3
1.3 ......................................................................................................................................................3
) 2 ..............................................................................................................7
2.1 : :.........................................................................7
2.2 .......................................................................................................................................9
2.3 ........................................................................................................13
2.4 : 2548/49 ...................18
2.5 2548/49 .................................................................................................25
) 3 2548/49 ......................................................................................27
3.1 ...........................................................................................................................27
3.2 ......................................................................................................................34
3.3 .....................................................40
3.4 ......................................48
) 4 ) .............................57
4.1 ...........................................................................................................58
4.2 .............................................................................................................60
4.3 ..........................................................................................63
4.4 .......................................................................................................64
4.5 : ........................................................................................67
) 5 ..............................................................................................................................71
5.1 ................................................................................................................................................................................71
5.2 .............................................................................................................................................71
5.3 ........................................................................................................72
...............................................................................................................................................................................87
....................................................................................................................................................................................91
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
.. 2524/25-2552...............................13
...............................................................................15
2548/49 .............................................................22
2548/49 ..........................................................................................................................................25
3.1 2548/49 ...........................................27
3.2 2548/49 31 2552 ...................29
3.3 : ..........................32
3.4 ...........................................................................38
3.5
2548/49 .......................................................................................................................39
3.6 ..........................40
3.7 ..............................43
3.8 2548/2549........................................46
3.9 2 ............................................47
3.10 ............................................................................................51
3.11 ..........................................52
4.1 (/) .........................................................................................65
5.1
( 350,000 ).......................................................................................73
5.2 ..........................................79
viii
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
3.1
3.2
........................................14
...................................................15
.......................................................17
.....................................................18
2548/49 .......................................21
2548/49......................................................................................35
:
( )........................................................................41
3.3 6 2551 2552.........................................51
3.4
10 2549/50 ..................................................................................................53
5.1 : .......................................................................................................................................78
ix
) 1
1.1
( 10
2547 29 2548 2-4 2552
2548 ) .
x
x
:
:
( ) 1
1
:
: :
(:)
: :
:
2 :: :
:
:
:
:
: : :
2
1.2
1)
:
2)
:
3) :
(economic loss)
::
4)
1.3
: ( ) :
:: 3
() ()
3 ()
x
() () ()
2548/49
:
:
3
2551-2552
: ()
()
(: )
()
: 1) (explicit
cost) 2) (implicit cost)
(
)
: (Rent seeking
loss)
::
:: (
) : :
:
: (welfare cost)
(1) (2)
(3) (4) (5)
(6) (7)
(Rent seeking activities)
Tullock (1967) Krueger (1974) Bhagwati (1982)
(real resources)
:
4
:
3 - 4
5
) 2
::
: 2.2-2.3 2.4 2.5
2548/49
2.1 : d)
: (price support policy)
: 2508 : (support price)
: 2512 2515
: 2 13.4 (Siamwalla
1987)
: 2518 :
(...) :
(.) : :
(Siamwalla 1987)
2523/24 :
( 2537 Siamwalla1987) : :
( ) :
x (2527) ... 2526
( 54) ( 27) 6
13
2524/25 . 4.5
: 3 | .:
: 10
: : 2526 : : 2527
200
::
: 2529 ( 2531)
:
:
2524/25
(...) : 80 :
...
(3-4 ) :
: :
:: 2544 :
...
2544/45
:
1.68 2547
( ) : (price support)
:
.
...
8
(...)
... 80
:
:
2.2
20 4
(...) 2524/25
... .
.
80 .
100,000 ... : 13
: ...
: ... : (
2549) 2524/25 69
410
2525/26 2527/28 ( 2551)
2529/30 5,000
...
: ...
: ... 3
6
2530/31 ... : 3
(2551)
:
9
( 2.1) :
2529/30 360,269 2,275,939
:: 3,809.6 :
:: ...
: :
::
10 : 10
: : ... :
2534 : :
:
5 :
90 6
2536/37 2540/41
:
40-50 (
2551) (
2547) 2535/36
90 :
... ( 2537)
: 1 3.38 2535/36
2541/42
95
27
5
: : :
2526/27 2527/28 2529
( Siamwalla 1987)
6
:
3
10
2543/44
:
100
1.62
2544 ...
...
... . ... .
:
: 2.5
: 2544 5
....
. ...
3
2544
2544/45
: ()
2544/45 : 2.5 8.7
100 2547/48 2548/49
: 9 ()
30
:
: :
(price support) :
: 2547/48 1 3 :
: :
11
(contingent liability)7 ()
( 4
2552)
2549/50 2550/51
2551 :
14,000
.. 2551
: 45
2551/52
12,000
3
x
2552 11,800
( 2.1)
.
..2534 5,000 ( 2541
2543 2547-50 2,000 ) ...
2551/52
:
: 15 2550 19 :
... 98,975.35 28,891.97
... 2551
12
) 2.1 ) .. 2524/25-2552
) /
2524/25
... 80 100,000
: 13 ( .)
2529/30
: ... 3
6
2530/31
: 3
2533/34
: :
. (.) 2534/35
80 90
2536/37
2
... 3 : . .
2541/42
90 95
2542/43
. ...
.:
2544
...
2544/45
2.5 8.7 100
2547/48
: 9
30
2549/50
2551
: 14,000 2551
12,000 2551/52
2552
11,800
2552
:
2.3
:
(price support) :
13
2544/45 100
1.6
2543/44 4.3 2544/45 ( 2.2) 2547/48 2548/49
308 ( 2.1 2.2)
:
2543/44 2552
: 8 2543/44 19 2544/45 38
2547/48 : 8.3 2544 44.7 2551
66.6 2552 ( 2.2) : 255152
) 2.1
20,000
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
.. 52
.. 52
..51
..51
..51
..51
..50
..50
..50
..50
..-49
..-49
..-49
..-49
..-48
..-48
..-48
..-48
..-47
..-47
..-47
..-47
..-46
..-46
..-46
..-46
..-45
..-45
..-45
..-45
..-44
..-44
..-44
..-44
..-43
: 2552 ( .)
2547/48
: 2.2 ( 2 : :
5 : 2 1.7 )
2547/48 ( 2.2)
14
) 2.2
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
.. 52
.. 52
..51
..51
..51
..51
..50
..50
..50
..50
..-49
..-49
..-49
..-49
..-48
..-48
..-48
..-48
..-47
..-47
..-47
..-47
..-46
..-46
..-46
..-46
..-45
..-45
..-45
..-45
..-44
..-44
..-44
..-44
..-43
: 2552 ( .)
) 2.2 )
2524/25
2525/26
2526/27
2527/28
2528/29
2529/30
2530/31
2531/32
2532/33
2533/34
2534/35
2535/36
2536/37
2537/38
2538/39
2539/40
2540/41
2541/42
15.76
14.77
16.94
17.27
17.93
16.83
15.27
17.88
18.48
14.90
17.52
17.30
16.48
18.16
17.73
17.78
18.79
18.66
0.00041
0.00145
0.00024
0.09047
2.2759
0.3491
0.5173
1.0819
0.7984
1.0602
3.3833
1.2027
1.4029
1.1822
0.8651
0.7864
0.6773
0.003
0.01
0.00
0.52
13.53
2.29
2.89
5.86
5.36
6.05
19.55
7.30
7.72
6.67
4.87
4.19
3.63
2525
2526
2527
2528
2529
2530
2531
2532
2533
2534
2535
2536
2537
2538
2539
2540
2541
2542
2.02
2.10
2.61
2.63
2.33
2.04
2.77
3.38
2.12
2.29
2.88
2.62
1.96
2.95
4.29
4.55
4.79
4.34
15
) 2.2 ) ()
2542/43
2543/44
2544/45
2545/46
2546/47
2547/48
2548/49
2549/50
2550/51
2551/52
19.02
19.79
22.41
21.57
23.14
22.65
23.36
22.84
23.31
23.71
0.6978
1.6185
4.2981
3.5875
2.5384
8.6497
5.2478
1.2854
0.2395
5.3518
3.67
8.18
19.18
16.64
10.97
38.19
22.47
5.63
1.03
22.57
2543
2544
2545
2546
2547
2548
2549
2550
2551
2552
5.16
6.06
5.62
6.43
6.33
5.89
6.75
6.80
8.79
7.76
0.50
1.84
2.04
0.86
0.80
2.17
1.64
3.93
5.17 *
8.25
32.74
31.73
13.59
13.58
32.15
24.12
44.71
66.62
: *
: Office of Agricultural Economics, Thailand; Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives; Public Warehouse
Organization, Ministry of Commerce, Thailand
:
()
()
( 3 4 )
( 3 4) :
: : ()
2.3 ( )
Poaponsakorn (2009)
: 10 6
16
) 2.3
1,400,000
1,200,000
10
Export
9
stock
1,000,000
800,000
6
5
600,000
400,000
3
2
200,000
1
Jan
-08
Mar
-08
May
-08
Jul08
Sep
-08
Nov
-08
Jan
-09
Mar
-09
May
-09
Jan
-06
Mar
-06
May
-06
Jul06
Sep
-06
Nov
-06
Jan
-07
Mar
-07
May
-07
Jul07
Sep
-07
Nov
-07
: 2552 ( 2)
() : 2544/45
3.3 2542
6.9 2543 30 2544 60.7 2551/52
: WTO :
2543 44 (aggregate measure of support) :
WTO
() 2540
(ADB 1998;
Sriboonchitta 1998; Siamwalla 1994) 2544/45
(Poapongsakorn 2008)
:
2544/45
:
2552 12,000 11,800
( 67)
2552
: ( 2.4)
17
) 2.4
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
. . -0
5
. . - 0
. 5
. -0
5
.-0
. 6
. .-0
6
. . -0
6
. .-0
. 6
. - 0
6
. .-0
6
.-0
. 7
. .-0
7
. .-0
7
. . -0
. 7
. - 0
7
. . -0
7
.-0
. 8
. .-0
8
. . -0
8
. . -0
. 8
. - 0
8
. . -0
. 8
-0
. 9
. -0
9
()
1,200
Thai 5-percent
Vietnam 5-percent
1,000
800
600
400
200
. .- 0
5
. .- 0
. 5
. -0
5
.-0
. 6
. .-0
6
. .- 0
. 6
. -0
6
. .- 0
. 6
. -0
6
.-0
. 7
. .-0
7
. .- 0
7
. .- 0
. 7
. - 0
7
. .- 0
7
.-0
. 8
. .-0
8
. .- 0
8
. .- 0
8
. .- 0
8
. .- 0
. 8
-0
. 9
.- 0
9
()
: 3
: Creed Rice Market Report, Creed Rice Co., Inc., Houston, Texas.
2.4 d
2548/49
2548/49 ( 2548)
(.)
(.)
.
(: 2.5) .:
2548/49
18
: :
( )
(...)
. .
:
20 ... 4
x ...
(.)
...
. ::
50
: 20 :
50 ( 2.3)
.
2548/49
400
: (400 )
9
: .
9
:
19
.
:
. :
10( 2548)
216 6 20 14
6 16 (:) 36
6 30 (:) ( 2548)
: 3 ... :
...
... : 3
:
:
10
:
20
) 2.5 2548/49
: 2548
21
:
x ... x .
...:
...
:
20
250 ( 2549) ...
:
. :: . : ...
. .
(Surveyors) :
" "
:
) 2.3 2548/49
1.
1.1)
...
1.2)
20
1.3) :
:
: : :
22
) 2.3 2548/49 ( )
2. )
2.1)
1) 50
: 20
2) :
50
3)
4)
5)
6)
90 20 /
7)
() .
2.2)
2.3)
400 2 :
7
3. )
3.1)
1) : 13%
() 2%
2) ...
20
3.2)
1 : ...
20 1 :
3.3)
250
23
) 2.3 2548/49 ( )
4.
1)
./ :
2) : .
216 /
6
5.
5.1) .
5.2) ...
5.3)
2548/49
5.4)
5.5)
5.6)
5.7) . ()
1)
2) .
1)
2) ... 6
:
:
: 2548
24
2.5 2548/49
2548/49
9 ( 5 3
1 :) : 2547/48
7,4007,480 34.4 6,750-6,787 5.1
( 1)
: 624,428
61 5,247,837.65 58.9
... 2548/49
44,797.02 11,622.57
33,174.48 :
:: 1,164,447.67 22.19 10,706.55
762,904.16 64.46
7,436.136
401,543.51 9.88
3,270.407 420,648 3.66
:: 4.08 :
( 2.4)
: 3
) 2.4 2548/49
()
()
()
() ()
()
1,183,552.55 11,622.57
762,904.16
7,436.14
64.46
420,648.39
4,064,285.10 33,174.45
401,543.51
3,270.41
9.88
3,662,741.59
25
) 3
2548/49
:
2548/49
: : : :
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.1
: :
2548/49
5,247,837.65 ...
44,797.02
11,622.57 33,174.48
4,186.43 29,904.04 ( 3.1)
) 3.1 2548/49
.)
.)
.) :
.) :
: 2552
5,247,837.65
1,183,552.55
4,064,285.10
420,648.39
3,662,741.59
44,797.02
11,622.57
33,174.48
4,186.43
29,904.04
:
28
: 6,961.24 (: )
32,628.26 ( 3.2) 19,130
3,645.31
9,877.53
6,226.77 :
:
12
3.2
3.2
: : (400 )
(in-kind cost)
( 20 3.2 3.7)
) 3.2 2548/49 31 2552
1.)
2.)
2.1)
2.2) ...
2.3) .
(/)
...
.) 1/
.) 2/
.) 3/
.)
.
.) Overhead 4/
.) 5/
.) 6/
.) 7/
1)
2) -
3) -
4)
5)
44,797.02
6,961.24
1,326.50
4.02
2,348.51
94.68
240
2,005.62
2,731.24
248.21
181.325
4,553.48
1,234.87
142.07
164.38
125.79
802.62
510.73
58.78
1.63
73.45
26.10
6.8
1,785.76
29
6) : 2 :
7)
8)
8/
.)
.)
.)
.)
2.4)
9/
2.5) 10/
3.
+ (1.) +(2.)
4.)
) () + ()
(/)
(Extra Economic Cost)
.) 11/
.) 12/
130.55
0.38
1.01
3,318.62
1,465.10
727.22
796.65
329.65
25.23
30.00
51,758.26
657.31
125.25
518.62
138.69
5.
32,628.26
24,745.56
509.06
6.
.) . 13/
.) : .
.)
...
.) .. 52
: 25% 20,560.24
14/
(5) (1) (2)
(/)
3,645.31
45
30
7,208.13
165.51
19,130.00
1/ 20
2/ ... ...
4 4 (MRR (7.5%) + 1 3) x 4/12
3/ ... ...
3 3 (MRR (7.5%) -1%- 3%)
x 3/12
4/ Overhead 35 .
(.)
: :
30
5/ : .
(.)
::
6/ 90
20 /
7/ 216 / 6 1) 20 / 2) - 3)
- 30 : 4) 14 / 6
: 5) 16 : 6)
: 2 : 36 / 6 :
8/
:
. 400
. 198.54
20 1 ( 3.7)
. 36.25 1 6 :
217.5
. 100 . 15 1 6 :
90
9/
.
.
. .
10/
( 2549)
11/ 2 6 () 3
10 4 15
12/ : 1 : 2 .
:
1 .
(11/12/) ( 3.8)
13/
(.)
14/ 31 2552 2548/49 25%
20,560.24 : 8,050
: , (2548) (2552)
31
.
:
3 4 : 3.3
: :
31 2552 :
2.79 : ...
: ...
) 3.3 )d 1
2549
2550
2551
2552
(.. ..)
1.
... ( )
: ...
( + d ...)2
44,797.02
20,305.77
2,532.81
-
29,330.39
2,436.79
-
18,008.03
2,122.26
-
12,049.01
510.68
-
44,797.02
2.1
5,637.51
6,165.36
980.12
1,035.58
343.20
352.78
0.41
0.41
6,961.24
7,554.13
4.02
4.40
4.02
4.40
2.2 ...
2,138.35
2,338.56
94.68
103.55
2,005.62
181.33
191.58
-
28.84
29.64
-
2,193.41
38.05
181.33
41.61
191.58
(.. 48 .. 49)
...
.
.
(.. ..)
(.. ..)
7,602.54
52,399.56
2,348.51
2,559.79
94.68
103.55
2,005.62
28.84
2,193.41
248.21
29.64
262.84
32
) 3.3 )d 1 ( )
2549
2550
2551
2552
(.. ..)
(.. ..)
3,439.92
3,762.00
554.04
605.92
87.47
95.66
72.10
78.85
93.56
102.32
300.91
329.08
2,885.87
3,156.09
1,274.05
1,393.34
632.39
691.60
692.77
757.63
286.66
313.51
25.23
27.59
30.00
32.81
798.80
843.99
521.93
551.46
54.60
57.69
92.28
97.50
27.30
28.85
347.75
367.42
276.87
292.53
122.23
129.15
60.67
64.10
66.46
70.22
27.50
29.06
-
314.36
323.13
158.49
162.91
4.93
5.07
153.55
157.84
155.87
160.22
68.81
70.73
34.16
35.11
37.42
38.46
15.48
15.92
-
0.41
0.41
0.41
0.41
0.41
0.41
-
4,553.49
4,929.54
1,234.87
1,320.70
142.07
153.35
164.38
176.36
125.79
136.24
802.62
854.76
3,318.62
3,608.84
1,465.10
1,593.22
727.22
790.82
796.65
866.32
329.65
358.48
25.23
27.59
30.00
32.81
50,434.53
55,741.16
328.32
359.06
218.88
239.37
109.44
119.69
980.12
3,851.02
305.96
323.27
278.15
293.88
27.81
29.39
343.20
2,779.47
23.03
23.67
21.59
22.19
1.44
1.48
0.41
2,057.39
-
51,758.26
64,429.04
657.31
706.00
518.62
555.45
138.69
150.55
(.. 48 .. 49)
2.3 .
. Overhead
2.4
2.5
3. (1) + (2)
4. Extra
) +
Economic
Cost
.
(..
..)
33
) 3.3 )d 1 ( )
2549
2550
2551
2552
11,250.73
12,304.17
3,533.55
3,864.40
1,764.12
1,929.30
1,769.43
(.. ..)
15,799.45
16,693.36
15,799.45
16,693.36
1,783.21
1,884.10
14,016.24
(.. ..)
5,412.57
5,563.58
5,412.57
5,563.58
430.58
442.60
4,981.98
(..
..)
165.51
166.66
-
1,935.10
509.06
556.72
7,208.13
7,883.04
- 39,183.80
- 43,436.99
14,809.26
14,819.33
12,842.34
5,120.98
5,069.37
2,784.10
165.51
166.66
165.10
- 1,890.73
(.. 48 .. 49)
5. () + () + () + ()
. :
. ...
. .. 52
6. ( )
32,628.26
34,727.76
24,745.56
26,121.34
3,977.91
4,255.99
20,767.65
21,865.34
509.06
556.72
7,208.13
7,883.04
165.51
166.66
- 19,130.01
- 29,701.28
3.2 )
:
:
: ( )
2548/49
: (price support)
:: :
34
: : :
: 3.1
3.1 ()
OP1 : OQ1 ( )
OP2 OQ2 ( )
: OQO : ( )
Q2 QO Q0ABQ2 ... ...
: ...
:
) 3.1 2548/49
S
P2
A
b
P1
dd
e
E
D + Qg
D
Q0
Q2
Q1
2548/49 5.24 22.5
:: 2 (
3.1)
:
35
( :) 12
: :
( )
: :
(D) :
D+Qg :
:: :
: (producer surplus)
(:) : :
(consumer surplus)
: ( (CS)) + (:
(PS)) + () + ()
:
) % Welfare Cost
WC = CS + PS CG1 CG 2 + Sale
= ( a b ) + ( a + b + d ) ABQ 2 Q0 CG 2 + Sale
= d ABQ2 Q0 CG 2 + Sale
WC =
CS =
PS = :
CG1 = ABQ2Q0 = 2548/49 :
CG2 = ... + . + +
Sale =
12
36
)
: d (P1),
: (Q1)
(Q0) price elasticity of demand
price elasticity of supply
Price elasticity of demand
Qd
Q
P
P
P
P
P2 P1
P1
Q d 1
Q d
Qo Q1 1
d
Q1
. .(1)
Q s 1
Q s
Qo Q1 1
s
Q1
. (2)
Qs
Q
P
P
P
P
P2 P1
P1
2 3 P1 Q0 Q1
2 : OQ2 Q0Q2 OQ0
: 2 P1 Q1 :
:
) (price elasticity of demand)
: (
) 2548/49 7.86 :
37
15.5 23.36
: :
) 3.4 )
(2532)
(2543) 3/
(-0.12)
(-0.39)
(2532) 1/
(-4.00)
-1.43
-1.61
Suntayodom (1981) 2/
(-7.04)
-2.54
-2.72
: (1) , .2532.:
.
(2) . 2531. : : ,
. 24
(3) .2543. . Medium and long
terms Rice Supply and Demand.
38
3.5
) 3.5 ) 2548/49
)
0.045
0.086
0.096
Q1
P1
CS
PS
CS+PS
CG1
CG2
Sale
Welfare
Welfare
Q1
P1
CS
PS
CS+PS
CG1
CG2
Sale
Welfare
Welfare
Q1
P1
CS
PS
CS+PS
CG1
CG2
Sale
Welfare
Welfare
- 1.61
- 2.54
23.22
23.27
6,375.07
6,664.61
-17,965.76
-11,996.30
20,243.17
13,515.10
2,277.41
1,518.80
-44,797.02
-4,797.02
- 6,961.24
- 6,961.24
32,628.26
32,628.26
-16,852.59
-17,611.20
-3,216.14
-3,360.92
23.09
23.19
6,387.36
6,671.07
-17,658.97
-11,839.86
19,904.18
13,341.75
2,245.21
1,501.89
-44,797.02
-4,797.02
- 6,961.24
- 6,961.24
32,628.26
32,628.26
- 16,884.79
-17,628.11
- 3,222.29
-3,364.14
23.07
23.17
6,392.98
6,672.64
- 17,531.13
-11,802.06
19,761.62
13,299.85
2,230.49
1,497.79
-44,797.02
-4,797.02
- 6,961.24
- 6,961.24
32,628.26
32,628.26
-16,899.51
-17,632.21
-3,225.10
-3,364.93
- 1.43
23.20
6,282.46
-19,871.47
22,391.53
2,520.06
-44,797.02
- 6,961.24
32,628.26
-16,609.94
-3,169.84
23.06
6,297.98
-19,485.96
21,965.36
2,479.40
-44,797.02
- 6,961.24
32,628.26
-16,650.60
-3,177.60
23.03
6,304.34
-19,340.12
21,802.85
2,462.73
-44,797.02
- 6,961.24
32,628.26
-16,667.27
-3,180.78
- 2.72
23.27
6,699.43
-11,277.46
12,705.04
1,427.59
-44,797.02
- 6,961.24
32,628.26
-17,702.41
-3,378.32
23.20
6,705.14
-11,139.19
12,551.82
1,412.63
-44,797.02
- 6,961.24
32,628.26
-17,717.37
-3,381.18
23.18
6,706.52
-11,105.75
12,514.76
1,409.01
-44,797.02
- 6,961.24
32,628.26
-17,720.99
-3,381.87
:
6,292.2
: 3.5)
39
3.3
19,130
( )
:
)
:
14 3.6
) 3.6
.. 2548
892,187
7,480
6,674
610,678
6,750
4,122
31,766
5,618
178
.. 2548
1,661,314
7,400
12,294
1,137,124
6,738
7,662
59,150
5,335
316
.. 2549
369,181
7,485
2,763
252,694
6,788
1,715
13,144
6,775
89
.. 2549
146,019
7,807
1,140
99,946
6,816
681
5,199
6,979
36
3,076,507
22,871
2,105,786
14,180
109,537
: (...) 2552
3.6
14
:
(shadow price) 3.2
() 5,894 6,292
: 3.6
40
619
22,871
14,180 619
37,670.30 ...
44,797.02 :
7,126.72 1,360.01 37.62
: ( 3.8)
: :
x
: : :
: 37.62
:
3.8
2 : :: 24
2548/49 : 60.6 2551/52
47 2548/49 15.9
2551/52 ( 3.2 5)
) 3.2 d
( )
)
) )
80
70
35
60
30
50
40
25
40
20
30
15
20
10
10
0
< 5.9 tons
6 - 14.9
tons
15- 28.9
tons
> 29 tons
0
< 5.9 tons
6 - 14.9 tons
> 29 tons
: 2552
41
)
1) 400
1 ( )
: : 400
20 1 :
198.54 3.7
: 2,192.31
2) ::
:
36.25 1 6
: 796.65 100
15 1 6
90 1 :: 329.65
3) 20 .
90 : 125.79
: 3,444.40
656.35 18 :
( 3.8)
::
:
x x :
( ) :
42
:
:
) 3.7 )
)
)
()
(/.)
( )
()
(/.)
450
9.9
4,457.17
540
9.9
170
8.12
1,380.59
90
7.9
40
7.67
306.85
30
7.45
72
5.38
387.35
80
5.18
30
0.25
7.50
30
1.35
660
6,539.46
660
+ ()
2,082.29
()
400.00
()
1,682.29
(.)
169.85
: (.)
620
: 15% 14% (.)
10
. ) (.)
610
.)
(.)
(/ )
* 2548/49 2548
: (.) .2548
( )
5,348.60
711.00
223.50
414.40
40.50
6,738.00
1,389.40
400.00
989.40
99.89
640
10
630
20
198.54
:
( 4) :
( 5)
( :)
400-600 ( 20
43
44
:
)
:
: (
) 1) . Overhead
2) .. 3)
( 3.2) 2,619.53 499.16
13.69 : ( 3.8)
) ) 19 d
3 4 (.. 2548
..2552) 518.62
98.83 2.71 :
:
138.69 26.43 0.72 :
( 3.8)
)
:
2
(-19,130)
19
: 2 1
2 2 10 , 15 3 4
45
I
( )
II
: ( )
III
()
7,126.72
3,444.40
802.62
2,619.53
518.62
138.69
4,479.42
19,130.00
()
1,360.01
656.35
152.94
499.16
98.83
26.43
853.57
3,645.31
( )
37.25
18.01
4.20
13.69
2.71
0.72
23.42
100.00
:
3.2 ::
1) = + ( 22 ())
2) = ( 2.3 ()) + ( 2.3)
3) = 2.3 ()
20
F.O.B F.O.B : 15
(liquid)
21
4
46
) 2
7,126.72
4,479.42
37.25
23.42
7,196.43
4,409.71
37.62
23.05
: (1)
(2)
:
:
(economic loss)
Tullock (1967)
Krueger (1974)
47
( )
( 4)
3.4 22
: 19,130 2548/49
:
) = :
: :
23
: 75 24
3 : 1 ::
( ::)
: :
:
)
: :
30 2547/48 2548/49 23
2552 ( 2.22)
: ( 2549)
:
22
23
2552
( , 1 2552)
24
5.62 8.79 ( 9.4 ) 2545 51
: : 6.16 :
: :
48
(2552)
) :
:
:
: :
: :
:: 2545/46
x :
: ( 4 ) :
: :
) :
( 7-30
) :
:
( )
:
3-6
( )
49
7 30 :
:
) :
: ( 2.3 2) 2549
5.23 7.67 2552 2
10
6 ( 2.3 2 Poagongsakorn 2009)
:
:
( )
2552 ( , 19 2552) :
:
( 2552) 2542/43
25
2551-52 (12,000 11,800 )
2552 7.67 ( 2552)
6 2552 27 2551
22 2552 : ( 3.3)
2552
25
: :
50
2551
22%
27%
54%
50%
9%
10%
Thailand
U.S.A.
20%
8%
Thailand
U.S.A.
Vietnam
Other
Vietnam
Other
: , 2552
26 ()
17
3.10 4-6
() 3-4
( 4 ) () :
:
4-6 :
:
: ( 4 )
) 3.10 ( )
2
) 3 - 4
) 5 - 6
) 7 - 17
1 2551
58.92
20.34
14.49
6.24
1 2551
58.10
31.42
5.76
4.72
1 2552*
47.31
26.92
8.00
17.77
: 2552 * 15 2552
26
:
:
51
)
:
( Poapongsakorn and Isvilanonda 2008) 3.11
: 2548/49 2552 1
53 : 2548/49 84
2551/52
) 3.11
2548/49
40,000
40,001-100,000
100,001-200,000
200,001-340,000
340,000
()
193,966
211,992
83,891
30,612
5,203
525,664
2551/52
()
( )
()
()
( )
5,163.48
14,036.56
11,809.74
7,966.56
1,819.60
40,795.95
12.66
34.41
28.95
19.53
4.46
100.00
29,181
55,343
46,462
31,856
21,514
184,356
784.51
3,783.81
6,724.98
8,351.00
9,042.32
28,686.62
2.73
13.19
23.44
29.11
31.52
100.00
2549
: 10 ( 1 10
) : 2548/49
(
) 3.3 20 (2 )
11.50 20
52
2.2
20 23.5
2.4
) 3.4 10 2549/50
25
15
5.32
10
5
13.91
Dry-season
(2006)
(2549)
20
0.84
1.53
1.34
0.85
Wet-season
(2549/50)
6.70
5.58
8.13
9.33
9.60
2.48
1.96
3
3.66
4
4.05
3.50
5
4.72
7
5.00
8
6.18
5.32
9
10
: 1 10%
10 10%
: Poapongsakorn and Isvilanond, 2008
53
) 4
)
: (real resources)
(rent seeking activities) :
: :
(rent dissipation)
27
:
:
4.1 4.2
4.3 4.4
4.5
:
27
4.1
: 2548/49
: 489,553 2547/48 624,428 2548/4928 :
:
(1) : 2551
255129
: ( ) 30 :
(2) :
:
: :
:
:
31
28
2546/47 210,460
( 100%) : 368 2550
990 2551 : 582
2551 556 2552 :
2551 14,000 2551/52 12,000
2552 11,800 2
30
(2552) 2550/51 - 2551/52 :
: 0.06 : 8.63
18.2 .. 2527/38-2541/42 22.1 2542/43-2551/52
31
29
58
(3) : (350,000
2552 500,000 )32 :
:
(4)
: :
70-75
6-8 2 5 2 :
: : :
2552
2552 4 6 23,600
( 5 2552)
3
7-8 2
:: :
: :
( Minot 1998) 10-20
:
: :
(Poapongsakorn and Isvilanonda 2008) :
:: ( :) :
32
59
: ::: :33 (
2545) ::
: :
:
()
:
:
(private cost)
: (social cost) :
: : ::
4.2
(
) :
50 :
50
:
35 (Titapiwatanakun 2008)
34
33
2551 :
: 18,422 :
37,020 ( : 27
2551)
34
( : )
:
: ( : )
35
5-6 : 100 :
: : (arbitrage)
60
= 32 :
2551/52 745 111
2550/51 433 2549/50 323 2548/49
2552 521 278 255037
:
:
() E : x
: x : 2552
11,800 9,000 x
500 ( 2552) :
x Tom Slayton
2552 5
() :
: :
2551
3 5 :::
:
36
100
:: 90 :
37
2-3
61
() : 2552
:
2552 6 7.7 :
:
: :
() : :
=
= : :
()
x () /
::
38
.
200 2549 : :
. 50 39
x
18.01
3 ( 3.8) 38
:
38
2547/48
1 2548 49 (
29 2548 48)
39
2551
62
:
:
4.3
() (216 )
()
: () :
( ) (Surveyors)
/
: 40 3
() () ()
:
.41
:
:
( 7-10 5 ) :
40
( 29 2548 )
2547/48 ... 918,341
84 46 55 54 57
41
. .
.
63
: :
: 3 ( )
:
4.4
( 23.42) :
:
59 ( 2,642 )
3 4 20 - 30 79 - 89
42 :
: ( )
:
43 2551 2
58.92 ( 0.92 ) 2551 2
58.10
42
43
:
64
(concentrated benefits) :: :
::: (transaction cost)
:
:
(rent dissipation) :
:
4.1 :
2
(
)
3 4
) 4.1 (/)
) 1
2551
5%
10%
2551
5%
10%
4
) 2
) 3
) 4
11.00
9.82
13.50
15.80 - 16.80
14.00
11.50 - 12.00
11.05
14.00 14.35
18.00
12.00
11.35 - 11.50
14.00 - 14.20
10.50
-
11.30
13.60
-
15 - 16.25
12.10
16.05 - 16.55
-
15.6 - 16.55
-
16.05
-
65
) 4.1 (/) ()
15%
25%
2552
5%
10%
15%
25%
) 1
10.10
8.15
9.9 - 16.35
13 - 15.5
13.50
12.50
10.50
18.00
24.25
16.00 16.95
4
) 2
) 3
7.6 - 8.14
8.115
16.4 - 17.50
14.60
8.05
17.00
21.60 23.60
15.80 16.00
15.22
8.50
21.50
18.10
17.00
) 4
8.20
16.30
24.50
14.00
: .
:
: (1)
5-6
:
(2) : :
. :
6 2547 : (TOR)
: 5 : :
: 1
: (
2548 11) :: ..02/47
. 18 . 47 : :
: ( 2548 12-13
(3) (3):
( )
2547
:
(2548)
66
2547 . 3.62
6 2547 (
2546/47) 77.2 ( 2544-2546) 34.4
: :
4.5 :
44
=
45 :
: 46
44
: ( )
2552 :
45
:
46
- 2553 2
67
: 2547
:
1.68 47
5 : 162
: 2.2
: :
. ... (x , 10 2547)
:
2547 5,250
5,000 2547/48 6,600
6,000
:
:
: 48
:
49
2551 ( 14,000 )
( )
2
1-2 :
14,000 10,000
:
47
:
48
49
2551 :
68
x
12,000
:
2551
::
(
2 4 2552)
:
:
2552 :
: 1.9
:: : :
:
5 18 ( 9 2553 : 7)
:
3-6
50 ( 3.7 ) 400-600 (
40,000 : 50
2,000 ) 4-6 10-15 ( ::
200 50-60 ) :
50
1 2551/52 99,832 (
54) :: 184,356 84
:
69
2552 :
2552
51
: :
Khan (2009) political corruption
:
51
(.) :
18 2552 : 12 2552
. 17 2552 . 2
( 1 )
1 2552 ...
70
) 5
5.1
:
(contingent liability)
( )
:
(social cost) :
:
:
5.2
2 :
1 :
:: :
:: :
4 (1)
( 5.3) (2)
(...)
: 52 (3)
::
(4)
:
: 2544/45
5.3 ) 53
) ) ?
:
(3.7 ) :
: : :
: : 2 ( )
:
52
:
: 20
: ... JBIC
:
53
2552
75 2552
72
: Black-Scholes
5.1 :
()
54 :
:
7,000 : 347
4.96
: 25 :
:
(...
)
) 5.1 ) )
( 350,000 )
(/)
(/)
d *
(/)
7,000
6,500
7,000
7,500
8,000
8,500
9,000
9,500
6,500
7,000
149
347
649
1,036
1,479
1,952
2,439
22
75
192
8,000
7,500
54
) ( )
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
50
1
(1.85
6
3
)
(3.7
)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
8,999
4,499
2,414
1,485
743
17,929
8,964
4,810
2,966
1,483
26,668
13,334
7,155
4,442
2,221
35,405
17,703
9,500
5,909
2,954
43,823
21,911
11,758
7,370
3,685
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
6,900
73
) 5.1 ) )
( 350,000 ) ( )
(/)
(/)
d *
(/)
) ( )
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
50
1
(1.85
6 3
(3.7
)
)
0
0
0
0
0
397
8,000
8,500
693
8,999
4,499
2,414
1,485
9,000
1,066
17,929
8,964
4,810
2,966
9,500
1,495
26,668
13,334
7,155
4,442
10,000
1,958
35,405
17,703
9,500
5,909
10,500
2,439
43,823
21,911
11,758
7,370
* : Black-Scholes
: 350,000 / 7,000-8,000
6,500-7,000
:
743
1,483
2,221
2,954
3,685
:
:
: 25%
:
:
25 55
55
:
.
74
( )
3.7
:
:
:
:
) d)
?
(1) (2) :
(3) ()
: 10 (4)
: ( 5.1)
:
:
: ( .)
: :
: 2 :
x 2 :
:
75
?
... : ( :
) :
(exercising date)
56 :
:
:
:
... ? ...
: :
: ...
... :
: ( ) : ...
(
)
) ) )
( )
(exercise date)
25-30
56
13 2552
:
76
=
2
: :
25 30
= : :
10 :
( :
6,500 ) :
:
: (
:
)
:
(exercise date)
: ... :
: 15 2552 15 2553
:
5 6
: 30 :
:
10 82
77
10 ()
10 10 :
) 5.1 d
...
...
.
...
)
:
( ) 2552 8,000
6 (
) 1) 7,000 ( ) 2) 7,500 3)
8,000 4) 8,500 5) 9,000 6) 10,000
...
10 20
78
2552/5357
5.2 (1) 10
10,000 8,000
10 :: 23,686
2.4
: 82 10 ( 5.2)
(2) 23,686
2548/49 ( 19,130 )
(2.4 )
525,664 ( 52.9)
( 14.3 )
) 5.2 )
(/)
7,000
(/)
(/)
7,500
500
8,000
1,000
8,500
1,500
9,000
2,000
9,500
2,500
10,000
3,000
10,500
3,500
8,000
8,500
500
9,000
1,000
9,500
1,500
10,000
2,000
10,500
2,500
(%)
10 /
5,922
11,843
17,765
23,686
29,608
35,529
41,451
5,922
11,843
17,765
23,686
29,608
82
()
20 /
30 /
7,145
7,595
14,290
15,190
21,435
22,785
28,581
30,380
35,726
37,975
42,871
45,570
50,016
53,165
7,145
7,595
14,290
15,190
21,435
22,785
28,581
30,380
35,726
37,975
95
98
40 /
7,774
15,547
23,321
31,094
38,868
46,641
54,415
7,774
15,547
23,321
31,094
38,868
100
: 2551/52 3.7
1.3 ( ...) 2.4
: :
.. 2546
57
: :
79
)
: 2552
7.67 ( : 2552)
2552
2
(1) 2552
: (
)
15 2552 :
(2)
: :: (floor)
:
) ) 8 d
: (3.5
)
x
:
:
:
:
80
=
E
2552
500,000 7 :
AFTA
: 1 2553
=
: : :
:
:
(Contingent liability)
4-5 : ...
: 2542 : 90,000
. ...
(domestic subsidy)58
WTO :
58
:
()
81
5.4 .. 2552
:
. 12 2552
17 2552 .
10,000 : 6,969
200 40 : .
20 59 . 25
97 ( 5.2)
2552
: 2552 3.258 ...
x 2.54 ( 78 ) 23.9
:
. . :
... 1
2552
59
15,300 14 14,300
16 10,000 25
9,500 16
82
60
:
( 13 2552)
:
:
2552 2552
2552
4
:
:
: :
2552
:
1)
( 2552/53) : ( 2553) :
:
60
: 12 2552
. 17 2552 1 2552
.
83
( 24 2552)
:
( 2553)
. 7
: 3 (
) 2553
1
( 2) ( 1)
2553
2 :
. : :
: :
:
2) ) d)
::
: :
:
(.)
(...) :
: 2552 :
2553/54
61
61
... 3-5
84
...
: 1-2 :
2553 ::
:
: :
:
: :
: :::
3
: (social
entrepreneur)
:
...
(.) : :
:
:
:
3) 2552
2 : 1 16
:
:
(
)
85
4) (exercise date) 2552 ...
15 2552 2553
... ( 2
)
::
:
5) )
. .
... .
x
6) d )
: ::
7)
(
2552)
8)
9)
( : )
:
( :
) (hedging)
(spot market)
86
:
( ) :
(domestic subsidy)
:
: :
: 10
87
.
2550. 2548/49
2549/50. .
. 2549.
. .
. 2546.
.
.
x . 2527.
2525/26. , 2 ().
. 2521. " ".
, 27. :
.
: x . 2538. .
.
. 2550.
2548/49. .
. 2551. : . ( )
36 49.
. 2543. .
.
. 2546. .
. .
. 2531. = :
. 24. .
. 2549.
. .
. 2547. .
.
. 2552.
, 75 2552
. 2549. .
. .
. 2543. .
Medium and long terms Rice Supply and Demand.
. 2548.
2547.
.
. 2546.
. .
. 2537. .
.
. 2532. :
. .
. 2533.
.
.
. 2531.
.. 2503-2527.
:
: .
ADB. 1998. Thailand Agricultural Sector Needs Assessment Study. Vol.II-TA 3003-THA, Asian
Development Bank.
Bhagwati, Jagdish N. 1982. Directly Unproductive, Profit-seeking (DUP) Activities. The Journal of
Political Economy, Vol. 90, No.5.(Oct.),pp. 988 1002.
Krueger, A.O. 1974. The Political Economy of the Rent-Seeking Society. American Economic
Review, 64 (June): 291-303.
Minot, N. 1998. Competitiveness of Food Processing in Vietnam : A Study of The Rice, Coffee,
Seafood, And Fruit and Vegetables Subsectors. Prepared for Development Strategy Instiute
88
Ministry of Planning and Invesment Vietnam and Medium-Term Industrial Strategy Project
United Nations Industrial Development Organization Vietnam.
Mushtaq H. Khan. 2009. The Damaging Effects of Ignoring Differences in Types of Corruption.
Conference on Evidence-Based Anti-Corruption Policy. The Office of the National AntiCorruption Commission of Thailand.
Pindyck, Robert S. and Rubinfeld, Daniel L. 1992. Microeconomics. New York: Macmillan.
Poagongsakorn, Nipon and Somporn Isvilanonda. 2008. Key Issues in the Thai Rice Industry: Myth,
Misguided Policies and Critical Issues. The Rice Policy Forum. Los Banos, Philippines.
February. (Forthcoming).
Poapongsakorn, Nipon. 2006. The Decline and Recovery of Thai Agriculture: Causes, Reponses,
Prospects and Challenges. Rapid Growth of Selected Asian Countries. Policy Assistance Series
1/3.FAO RAP Pubication 2006/06. Bangkok.
Poapongsakorn, Nipon. 2009. The Thai Rice Price and Export Policies in Year 2008-09. The Asian
Rice Policy Seminar. FAO. Chiangmai. February. (Forthcoming).
Posner, Richard A. 1975. The Social of Monopoly and Regulation. Journal of Political Economy,
vol.83, no.4.
Siamwalla, Ammar. 1987. The Farmers Aid Fund Act of 1974: Its genesis and Aftermath. An
EDI/KDI Seminar on Economic Policy Change and government Process. Organized ley EDI of
the World Bank and KDI, Seoul, South Korea. November 9 13.
Siamwalla, Ammar. 1994. An Assessment of Impact of Price Intervention Program in the Rice
Markets, Year 1992 93. TDRI White Paper, No.7. In Thai.
Sriboonjitta, S. 1998. The Effect of Paddy Pledging Policy on Rice Price: Statistical Evidence during
1979-1997. Economic Journal of Chiang Mai University, 119-128.
Tullock, G. 1967. The Welfare Costs of Tariffs, Monopolies and Theft. Western Economic Journal,
5, pp. 224-232.
Worcester, Dean A. JR. 1970. New Estimates of the Welfare Loss to Monopoly, United States: 19561969. University of Washington.
89
) 1
)
/
)
.. 2543
.. 2543
.. 2544
.. 2544
.. 2544
.. 2544
.. 2544
.. 2544
.. 2544
.. 2544
.. 2544
.. 2544
.. 2544
.. 2544
.. 2545
.. 2545
.. 2545
.. 2545
.. 2545
.. 2545
.. 2545
.. 2545
.. 2545
.. 2545
4,518.50
4,258.50
4,411.96
4,586.67
4,327.46
4,212.63
4,307.63
4,255.75
4,640.50
4,556.00
4,635.13
4,603.75
4,357.50
4,330.17
4,527.13
4,733.63
4,746.17
4,614.25
4,791.75
4,808.75
4,640.00
4,567.50
4,595.75
4,749.50
5,280.00
5,280.00
5,280.00
5,280.00
5,280.00
5,330.00
5,330.00
5,330.00
5,330.00
5,330.00
-
4,870.00
4,870.00
4,870.00
4,870.00
4,975.00
4,975.00
4,975.00
4,975.00
-
7,289.00
6,413.00
6,583.00
6,376.00
6,085.50
6,139.50
5,932.50
5,750.50
5,710.50
5,204.50
4,929.00
5,151.50
4,748.00
4,750.00
5,093.50
5,286.00
5,276.00
5,318.00
5,458.00
5,859.50
6,319.00
6,339.50
6,527.50
6,336.50
6,495.00
6,495.00
6,495.00
6,495.00
6,495.00
7,000.00
7,000.00
7,000.00
7,000.00
7,000.00
-
.. 2545
.. 2545
.. 2546
.. 2546
4,721.38
4,617.75
4,814.00
4,821.00
5,330.00
5,330.00
5,330.00
5,330.00
6,271.50
6,361.00
6,055.00
6,619.50
6,800.00
6,800.00
6,800.00
6,800.00
) 1 ( )
)
/
)
.. 2546
4,713.17
5,330.00
7,322.50
6,800.00
.. 2546
4,653.25
4,975.00
7,771.00
.. 2546
4,664.75
4,975.00
7,984.00
.. 2546
4,765.25
4,975.00
8,311.00
.. 2546
4,768.25
4,975.00
8,454.50
.. 2546
4,620.00
8,788.00
.. 2546
4,592.00
8,097.50
.. 2546
4,517.75
8,447.00
.. 2546
4,459.75
5,330.00
8,025.00
7,000.00
.. 2546
4,525.75
5,330.00
7,974.00
7,000.00
.. 2547
4,758.25
5,330.00
9,318.50
7,000.00
.. 2547
4,736.25
5,330.00
8,834.50
7,000.00
.. 2547
5,095.75
5,330.00
9,271.00
7,000.00
.. 2547
5,351.67
5,250.00
9,457.50
.. 2547
5,407.00
5,250.00
9,249.50
.. 2547
5,372.00
5,250.00
8,546.50
.. 2547
5,497.75
5,250.00
7,957.00
.. 2547
5,909.75
7,717.50
.. 2547
5,812.00
7,417.00
.. 2547
5,738.25
7,185.00
.. 2547
6,061.00
6,600.00
7,407.00
10,000.00
.. 2547
6,157.00
6,600.00
7,636.50
10,000.00
.. 2548
6,307.50
6,600.00
7,885.00
10,000.00
.. 2548
6,325.75
6,600.00
7,955.00
10,000.00
.. 2548
6,854.33
6,600.00
8,028.00
10,000.00
94
) 1 ( )
)
/
)
.. 2548
6,677.50
6,700.00
8,000.00
.. 2548
6,711.33
6,700.00
7,913.50
.. 2548
6,724.00
6,700.00
7,688.50
.. 2548
6,618.75
6,700.00
7,696.00
.. 2548
6,602.75
7,995.00
.. 2548
6,703.00
8,013.00
.. 2548
6,879.75
7,882.50
.. 2548
6,750.00
7,100.00
7,480.00
10,000.00
.. 2548
6,738.00
7,100.00
7,400.00
10,000.00
.. 2549
6,787.50
7,100.00
7,485.00
10,000.00
.. 2549
6,815.50
7,100.00
7,807.00
10,000.00
.. 2549
6,831.25
7,100.00
8,168.00
10,000.00
.. 2549
6,787.50
7,100.00
8,190.50
.. 2549
6,680.00
7,100.00
8,305.00
.. 2549
6,656.25
7,100.00
8,298.50
.. 2549
6,720.00
7,100.00
8,705.00
.. 2549
5,976.75
8,970.50
.. 2549
6,516.00
9,022.50
.. 2549
6,012.75
8,980.00
.. 2549
6,050.25
6,500.00
8,460.00
9,000.00
.. 2549
6,144.00
6,500.00
8,275.50
9,000.00
.. 2550
6,330.33
6,500.00
8,680.00
9,000.00
.. 2550
6,416.67
6,500.00
8,787.50
9,000.00
.. 2550
6,345.96
6,500.00
8,932.00
9,000.00
.. 2550
6,967.00
6,600.00
8,954.50
.. 2550
6,197.25
6,600.00
8,903.50
95
) 1 ( )
)
/
)
.. 2550
6,275.25
6,600.00
8,960.50
.. 2550
6,275.00
6,600.00
9,025.00
.. 2550
6,291.75
9,025.00
.. 2550
6,266.25
9,057.50
.. 2550
6,269.50
9,120.50
.. 2550
6,650.00
6,700.00
9,348.00
9,300.00
.. 2550
6,933.50
6,700.00
10,261.00
9,300.00
.. 2551
7,006.75
6,700.00
10,965.50
9,300.00
.. 2551
7,919.25
6,700.00
12,145.00
9,300.00
.. 2551
10,546.50
6,700.00
13,119.00
9,300.00
.. 2551
13,632.00
18,259.50
.. 2551
13,325.75
17,418.50
.. 2551
12,396.00
14,000.00
15,110.50
.. 2551
12,372.00
14,000.00
14,730.00
.. 2551
11,862.00
14,000.00
13,657.50
.. 2551
11,892.00
14,000.00
13,761.50
.. 2551
10,826.25
13,649.00
.. 2551
9,353.75
12,000.00
11,351.50
15,000.00
.. 2551
9,422.50
12,000.00
12,040.00
15,000.00
.. 2552
9,875.00
12,000.00
13,412.50
15,000.00
.. 2552
10,300.00
12,000.00
13,881.25
15,000.00
.. 2552
9,450.00
12,000.00
14,175.00
15,000.00
.. 2552
9,721.88
11,800.00
14,212.50
.. 2552
9,600.00
11,800.00
14,075.00
: , 2552
96
) 2
.. 2549
.. 2549
.. 2549
.. 2549
.. 2549
.. 2549
.. 2549
.. 2549
.. 2549
.. 2549
.. 2549
.. 2549
.. 2550
.. 2550
.. 2550
.. 2550
.. 2550
.. 2550
.. 2550
.. 2550
.. 2550
.. 2550
.. 2550
.. 2550
.. 2551
.. 2551
.. 2551
1)
2)
579,501
585,601
626,015
599,232
665,334
659,296
553,948
525,788
624,922
697,756
663,253
640,010
622,942
591,362
743,386
703,758
683,554
729,501
624,703
641,321
836,383
1,101,638
1,168,506
1,110,319
1,022,849
1,049,697
1,136,239
3.92
4.41
4.37
4.67
5.01
5.10
5.14
5.02
4.85
4.74
4.85
5.23
5.20
5.13
4.96
5.13
5.18
5.09
5.07
5.15
5.05
4.83
4.49
4.02
3.63
3.19
2.74
97
) 2 ( )
.. 2551
.. 2551
.. 2551
.. 2551
.. 2551
.. 2551
.. 2551
.. 2551
.. 2551
.. 2552
.. 2552
.. 2552
.. 2552
.. 2552
.. 2552
: 1)
2)
1)
2)
816,424
1,006,026
954,388
890,492
790,060
709,319
604,910
437,476
597,883
612,118
690,382
765,809
671,188
735,048
908,505
2.45
2.45
3.01
3.57
4.13
4.69
4.69
5.83
6.97
4.84
5.05
5.62
7.04
7.56
7.67
98
) 3
100%
d2
5%
5%
F.O.B.
F.O.B.
F.O.B.
.. 2548
292
286
347
278
.. 2548
294
288
346
292
.. 2548
296
289
345
303
.. 2548
286
280
336
308
.. 2548
288
282
338
320
.. 2549
299
293
353
343
.. 2549
307
300
369
354
.. 2549
310
303
374
353
.. 2549
310
304
387
358
.. 2549
315
308
386
364
.. 2549
319
312
391
364
.. 2549
323
315
403
371
.. 2549
321
315
409
395
.. 2549
319
314
410
406
.. 2549
312
307
406
418
.. 2549
310
305
406
419
.. 2549
317
311
423
.. 2550
321
313
420
.. 2550
325
317
417
.. 2550
320
321
441
405
.. 2550
327
319
439
400
99
) 3 ( )
100%
southern long gtain
d2
5%
5%
milled
F.O.B.
F.O.B.
F.O.B.
F.O.B. - US
.. 2550
329
320
439
397
..-2550
338
329
445
397
..-2550
345
336
457
392
..-2550
336
327
450
395
..-2550
332
323
448
413
..-2550
336
327
454
446
..-2550
349
340
480
475
..-2550
368
359
508
496
..-2551
399
389
545
518
..-2551
466
454
612
565
..-2551
567
554
711
664
..-2551
849
833
996
816
..-2551
990
973
1122
926
..-2551
870
854
1003
878
..-2551
831
814
923
854
..-2551
780
764
861
802
..-2551
764
749
824
791
..-2551
683
667
744
717
..-2551
591
576
689
664
..-2551
582
566
702
632
100
) 3 ( )
100%
southern long gtain
d2
5%
5%
milled
F.O.B.
F.O.B.
F.O.B.
F.O.B. - US
..-2552
611
581
764
592
..-2552
624
594
770
562
..-2552
637
608
768
513
..-2552
588
558
738
534
..-2552
556
526
732
513
..-2552
581
551
760
502
556
790
502
586
..-2552
: 1)
2) USDA
101
) 4 2548/49
/d/)
(2)
/ /
19,870 18,250
-1,620
-4.45
18,250 -1,620
-4.45
0%
12,550
2,030
330.91
12,550
2,030
330.91
0%
10,650 12,550
1,900
62.08
12,550
1,900
62.08
0%
12,550
1,850
324.61
126
12,425
1,725
302.59
1%
1,150
162.15
177
17,474
974
137.26
1%
12,550
2,850
674.76
126
12,425
2,725
645.05
1%
1,402
281.56
380
18,622
1,022
205.25
2%
2,745
(1)
2550/2/.. 5% 32,673
100% :2
5% 236,758
2550/6/..
9,700
100% :2
2549/6/.. 5% 163,012 10,520
2550/5/..
2549/4/..
100% :2
5% 288,907
9,750
12,550
2,800
808.94
251
12,299
2,549
736.42
2%
25% 90,490
9,030
10,575
1,545
139.81
212
10,364
1,334
120.67
2%
2551/.. 5% 67,958
11,237 18,550
7,313
497.01
1,855 16,695
5,458
370.95
10%
93,873
134,140
15,537 24,705
9,168
860.64
2,471 22,235
6,698
628.73
10%
15,537 20,800
5,263
706.00
2,080 18,720
3,183
426.99
10%
511
10% 6,647
15,537 20,800
5,263
2.69
2,080 18,720
3,183
1.63
10%
11,237 16,345
5,108
33.96
1,635 14,711
3,474
23.09
10%
15%
11,237 15,465
4,228
0.22
1,547 13,919
2,682
0.14
10%
53
8,050
14,080
6,030
443.87
1,408
12,672
4,622
340.23
10%
8,050
14,172
6,122
111.93
2,126
12,046
3,996
73.07
15%
25% 2,277
()
8,050
14,172
6,122
13.94
2,126
12,046
3,996
9.10
15%
5,450.65
4,409.72
102
) 5 d ( )
2548/49
5.9 (48/49)
3.9 (51/52)
6 - 14.9 (48/49)
40,001-100,000
4 8.9 (51/52)
15- 28.9 (48/49)
100,001-200,000
9 16.9 (51/52)
29 48.9 (48/49)
200,001-340,000
17 28.9 (51/52)
49 (48/49)
340,000
29 (51/52)
40,000
1/
()
193,966
211,992
83,891
30,612
5,203
525,664**
( )
36.90
40.33
15.96
5.82
0.99
100.00
2551/52
25462/ 25462/
()
5,163.48
14,036.56
11,809.74
7,966.56
1,819.60
40,795.95
( )
12.66
34.41
28.95
19.53
4.46
100.00
( )
27.95
( )
70.22
29.54
18.90
14.24
9.37
100.00
( )
( )
( )
( )
15.83
2.73
57.2
18
30.02
13.19
23.7
22
25.20
23.44
10.9
21
17.28
29.11
4.7
16
11.67
100.00
31.52
100.00
3.5
100.00
24
100.00
20.22
6.04
2.59
0.93
100.00
103
6 /) 2548/4962
(.)
2548/49 :
:
1.1 9
5 3 1
:
1.2 : 15%
1)
42
10,000
40
9,900
38
9,800
36
9,700
50 10,000
:
2)
40
7,900
38
7,820
36
7,740
34
7,660
40
7,900
62
2548/49
104
3)
100%
( 100%)
7,100
5%
( 5%)
7,000
10%
( 10%)
6,900
15%
( 15%)
6,800
25%
( 25%)
6,700
7,100
7,000
4)
7,700
7,500
1.3 1 2548
28 2549 1 31 2549
: 2548 -
2549 3
4
1.4
1.4.1
1) x
2)
2548/49
...
3) ...
... : ...
2548/49
... ... ...
: ...
105
1.4.2 ( )
1) :
:
2548/49
...
2) ...
... ...
- 2548/49
- ...
.
-
-
-
1.4.3
1)
:
: :
2) :
:
63 :
63
2548
106
1. 50
: 20
2. : 50
:
3. .
4.
5. .
:
90 20 /
6. h
() .
7.
.
1 ::
.
1.5
1) ...
... 15
...
2)
...
::
107
3) : ::
: :
:
2548/49
(.)
: :: :
:
1.6
1.
350,000
2.
20,000,000
3.
100,000,000
...
1.7
:
2548/49 :
. .
:
... :
x
108
165/1