CHNG 4

HOCH NH V
LP TIN D N
1. Hoch nh d n
2. Cng c hoch nh v lp tin
3. iu chnh tin d n
4. iu ha ngun lc
CHU TRNH CA MT D N
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GII THIU V HOCH NH D N
HOCH NH
L mt trong nhng chc nng qun l chnh
L mt qu trnh d bo cc vn , nhng nh hng
ca cc s kin c th xy ra
n lc kim sot bn cht/ xu hng ca s thay i
quyt nh hnh ng t kt qu/mc tiu mong mun

HOCH NH D N
Qu trnh quyt nh trc cc hnh ng thc hin trong
mi trng c d bo hon thnh mc tiu d n

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HOCH NH D N
NU KHNG HOCH NH?
Khng th kim sot
Kh i ph vi thay i ca mi trng

NI DUNG HOCH NH:
Ci g?
Ai?
Khi no?
Th no?
Bng g?
Thi gian?
Chi ph?

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MC CH CA HOCH NH
Phn tch
Phm vi, cch thc hin cng vic, ngun ti nguyn cn thit
D bo
Cc kh khn, phng nga ri ro
Thit lp ngun lc
Ti u ha vic s dng ngun lc sn c
Phi hp v kim sot
C s hp tc gia cc i tc da trn c tnh & kim sot
thi gian/ chi ph
Cung cp d liu
Lu tr cho cc d n tng lai
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TI SAO CN HOCH NH?
m bo t c mc tiu
m bo trnh t cng vic
Xc nh thi gian, chi ph, yu cu cht lng
Nng cao hiu qu s dng ngun lc
Gip vic kim sot v theo di
Tng cng giao tip/ phi hp
Khuyn khch, ng vin
Huy ng vn
Cung cp d liu
7
LI CH CA VIC HOCH NH
Li ch i vi nh thu
Bit r cng vic, trnh thc hin ba bi
Ngn nga tn tht v tin bc
D bo cung cp lao ng
m bo nhng thng bo ng c cng b, giao
hng ng hn, ng ni, ng s lng
H tr vic iu phi thu ph
Xc nh r cc giai on khc nhau trong d n
Cung cp tiu chun o lng cng vic
Cung cp thng tin cho vic kim sot cc hp ng
tng lai
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LI CH CA VIC HOCH NH
Li ch i vi khch hng
Bit thi gian cn thit xy dng

Xem xt s hiu qu ca vn u t theo tin trin
ca d n
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LI CH CA VIC HOCH NH
Li ch i vi kin trc s/ k s
D bo tc tin trin cc hot ng chnh da trn
thng tin nh thu cung cp
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LI CH CA VIC HOCH NH
Li ch i vi cc i tc lin quan
i tc lin quan: nh t vn, nh thu ph, chuyn
gia, nh cung cp, c quan a phng
Bit nhng giai on ca d n, khi no cng vic
thc hin
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CHI PH CA VIC HOCH NH
Lnh vc CP. Hoch nh/
Tng CP. d n (%)
Ngnh cng nghip ha du
Nhng d n thng xuyn
thay i thit k, i hi nh
hoch nh lm vic ton phn
trn cng trng
Nhng d n cng nghip phc
hp
Nhng d n xy dng phc tp
Nhng d n thit k vi mt t
thay i sau hp ng

2 4


1 2


0.5
Chng 4: HOCH NH V LP TIN D
N
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AI LP K HOCH?
K hoch c thit lp Mc ch Phm vi k
hoch
Phm vi
c.trnh
Phm vi
t.gian
n v
t.gian
Mc
chi tit
Cho Bi
K
h

c
h
H

n
g
Chnh ph
Chnh quyn
a phng
DN nh nc
G d
n
Hoch nh v
qun l
Tng quan d n Chng
trnh d
n phc
tho
Ton b
d n
Thng Thp
DN t nhn G d
n
Hoch nh v ti
chnh
Tng quan d n Chng
trnh d
n phc
tho
Ton b
d n

Thng Thp
N
h


Q
u

n

L

Nh qun l
d n
Nh
QLDA
Phi hp thit k
v xy dng
Thit k, cung
cp ti liu, k
hp ng, xy
dng, bo tr,
chuyn giao
i cng
v chi tit
chung
Thit k
d n v
xy dng
Tun Thp
Trung bnh
Nh thu NV
nh
thu
K hoch mi thu
K hoch cng
vic
Cc hot ng
chi tit
nh gi k
hoch mi thu
Chng
trnh xy
dng
Giai on
xy dng
Tun Trung bnh
K thut NV
nh
thu
K hoch hp
ng
K hoch cng
vic
Nh thu
Nh thu ph
i din KT
NV
nh
thu
K hoch ngun
lc
Cng vic, hng
mc chnh
c.trnh, NVL
Chng
trnh ngn
hn
6 10
tun
Ngy Trung bnh
Cao
c cng
i trng thi
cng
NV
nh
thu
Chi tit b tr cng
trnh/ngun lc
Cng vic, nhn
lc, gim st s
dng
Chng
trnh hng
tun
1 2
tun
Na ngy Cao
13
CC BC HOCH NH D N
Xc nh
mc tiu
Xc nh
cng vic
T chc
K hoch ngun
lc v ti chnh
Lp tin
K hoch
kim sot
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XC NH MC TIU
C th (Specific)

o c (Measurable)

Phn cng c (Assignable)

Thc tin (Realistic)

Hn ch thi gian (Time-bound)
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XC NH CNG VIC
Xc nh phm vi d n
Xc nh v m t mi hot ng chnh ca d n
M t kt qu ca d n
D tnh thi gian, ngn sch v ngun lc cn thit
khc
Xc nh tiu chun nghim thu d n
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XC NH CNG VIC
CU TRC PHN VIC (WBS)
WBS dng s khi








WBS dng lit k
D n
A B C
A
1
A
2
A
3
A
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XC NH CNG VIC
CU TRC PHN VIC (WBS)
WBS dng s khi
WBS dng lit k
1.0.0 D n
1.1.0 Cng tc A
1.1.1 A
1

1.1.2 A
2

1.1.3
1.2.0 Cng tc B
1.2.1 B
1

1.2.2 B
2

1.2.3
1.3.0 Cng tc C
1.3.1 C
1

1.3.2

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XC NH CNG VIC
CU TRC PHN VIC (WBS)
Mc ch

Tch d n thnh cc cng vic chi tit, c th
Xc nh tt c cc cng vic
Cho php c tnh ngun lc, thi gian, chi ph v cc
yu cu k thut khc mt cch h thng
Phn chia trch nhim thc hin c th, hp l
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XC NH CNG VIC
CU TRC PHN VIC (WBS)
Li ch

M t cng vic, kt qu, mc hon thnh
Xc nh ngi/ trch nhim v mi gi cng vic
c tnh thi gian, ngun lc hon thnh mi gi cng
vic

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XC NH CNG VIC
CU TRC PHN VIC (WBS)
c im ca gi cng vic c xc nh r rng:

Cht lng, mc hon thnh c th o d dng
C s kin bt u v kt thc
Quen thuc vi nhm d n
Bao gm cc cng vic c th qun l, c th o c;
c lp vi cc cng vic ca hot ng khc
Gm mt chui cc cng vic lin tc t khi bt u n
khi kt thc
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T CHC
Cc bc thc hin
Xc nh nhu cu nhn s
Tuyn chn gim c v cn b d n
T chc Ban qun l d n
Phn cng cng vic/ trch nhim/ quyn lc
K hoch t chc

Cng c h tr
Biu trch nhim
Biu t chc
S dng thng tin (biu bo co)
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K HOCH TI CHNH V NGUN LC
Cc bc thc hin
D kin ngun lc d kin; lng ghp vo ngn sch
Lp h thng kim sot ti chnh
Lp k hoch ti chnh
Chun b d ton v dng tin

Cng c h tr
Phn tch dng tin
Phn tch ri ro

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LP TIN
Cc bc thc hin
D kin thi gian hon thnh mi hot ng
Xc nh thi gian bt u/ kt thc cho mi hot ng
Xc nh trnh t cc hot ng
Xc nh hot ng quan trng, d kin ri ro
Cn i gia thi gian chi ph

Cng c h tr
S thanh ngang
S CPM
S PERT

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K HOCH KIM SOT
Cc bc thc hin

Xc nh cch o tin theo giai on
Xc nh c ch kim sot
Xc nh tiu chun cht lng
Thc hin qun l ri ro

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K HOCH KIM SOT
Mt s i sch cho vic kim sot

Chp nhn
Ngn nga mi nguy
Gim thiu kh nng/ hu qu xy ra
Trnh ri ro
Chuyn giao ri ro
i ph vi tnh hung xy ra
Thay i gii php, cng ngh
Dng d n
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HOCH NH NH TH NO?
Ni dung
R rng, khng m h

C th hiu c
Mc tiu cng vic v thc hin n nh th no

C th thay i c
D sa i, cp nht

C th s dng c
To iu kin cho kim sot, truyn t thng tin
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VD: D N XY CU (1/2)
MC CH:
Xy mt cy cu hin i bc qua sng Hng trong mt
khong thi gian v ngn sch cho php
MC TIU:
Cho php xe ti trng ti a 15 tn
Trng lng cy cu nh hn 20% so vi cc cy cu
hin nay c cng chiu di
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VD: D N XY CU (1/2)
MC CH:
Xy mt cy cu hin i bc qua sng Hng trong mt
khong thi gian v ngn sch cho php
MC TIU:

Tui th trn 50 nm
4 ln xe t, 2 ln xe my, 2 ln ngi i b
Kinh ph ti a 50 triu USD
Cu phi xy xong trc 2/9/2010
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VD: D N XY BNH VIN TNH (1/2)
MC CH:
Xy dng mt bnh vin a khoa hin i phc v cho
vic cha bnh v chm sc sc khe cho nhn dn trong
tnh
MC TIU:
Bnh vin c khun vin 20.000 m2
20 phng ni tr vi 300 ging bnh
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VD: D N XY BNH VIN TNH (1/2)
MC CH:
Xy dng mt bnh vin a khoa hin i phc v cho
vic cha bnh v chm sc sc khe cho nhn dn trong
tnh
MC TIU:

Cc khoa Ni, Ngoi, Tim mch, Xng
Bnh vin c khong 50 bc s, 100 y t, 200 h l lm
vic
Kinh ph d kin 4 triu USD
Xy dng trong vng 2 nm
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HOCH NH:
KHNG PHI S KIN MT LN
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Phin bn 1:
K hoch
ngn sch
Phin bn 2:
K hoch
phn b ngn
sch
Phin bn 3:
K hoch
iu khin
Phin bn 4:
Hoch nh
tip tc
Phin bn 5:
K hoch
cui cng
To dng
ngn sch
D n
c chp
nhn
Bt u
thc hin
D n sp
hon
thnh
D n
hon
thnh
TI SAO HOCH NH THT BI?
Mc tiu cng ty khng r rng cp thp hn
Hoch nh qu nhiu cng vic trong thi gian qu
ngn
c tnh ti chnh khng
D liu khng y
Tin trnh khng h thng
Hoch nh c thc hin bi nhng nhm hoch
nh
Khng ai bit mc tiu cui cng
Khng ai bit yu cu v nhn s
Khng ai bit nhng mc thi gian quan trng
nh gi d n da trn phn on
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TI SAO HOCH NH THT BI?
Khng thi gian cho nhng nh gi thch hp
Khng quan tm n ngun lc sn c vi nhng k
nng cn thit
Lm vic khng hng ti cng 1 c tnh k thut
Thay i thi gian thc hin cng tc, khng quan
tm n tin chung
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CNG C HOCH NH & LP TIN
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KH. yu cu s
mng?
Cng vic
lp li?
Cng vic n
gin & d hiu?
S dng phn tch s mng
cho k hoch tng th
S dng k thut
ng cn bng
S dng s thanh ngang
S dng phn tch s mng
C
C
C
Khng
Khng
Khng
CNG C HOCH NH V LP TIN
Vic la chn cng c hoch nh nh hng bi:

S thnh tho/ tinh thng ca nhm qun l
S phc tp ca cng vic
Mc kinh nghim trong qun l nhng vic lp li
Quy m cng ty
Thi nh qun l
Thi gian cho php gia quyt nh hp ng v bt u
cng vic d n

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THNG TIN U VO/ U RA
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u vo
Danh sch cc
cng tc
(WBS)
Mi quan h
gia cc cng
tc
Thi gian,
ngun lc thc
hin mi cng
tc
X l
Gantt
CPM
PERT
u ra
Thi gian
hon thnh d
n
Cng tc gng
Thi gian d
tr cc cng
tc
Ngun lc
c iu ha
Tin trin ca
DA
S THANH NGANG
c xy dng bi Henry L. Gantt (1915)
Cng tc c biu din trn trc tung
Thi gian c biu din trn trc honh
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TT Ctc M t Ctc trc Tgian (tun)
1 A Xy dng b phn bn trong - 2
2 B Sa cha mi v sn - 3
3 C Xy ng gom khi A 2
4 D btng v xy khung B 4
5 E Xy ca l chu nhit C 4
6 F Lp t h thng kim sot C 3
7 G Lp t thit b lc kh D, E 5
8 H Kim tra v th nghim F, G 2
S GANTT TRIN KHAI SM
TT
Cng tc Thi gian (tun)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
1 A
2 B
3 C
4 D
5 E
6 F
7 G
8 H
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S GANTT TRIN KHAI CHM
TT
Cng tc Thi gian (tun)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
1 A
2 B
3 C
4 D
5 E
6 F
7 G
8 H
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S GANTT LIN KT
TT
Cng tc Thi gian (tun)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
1 A
2 B
3 C
4 D
5 E
6 F
7 G
8 H
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S GANTT DNG CHO KIM SOT
T
T
Task % hon thnh Thi gian (tun)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
1 A
2 B
3 C
4 D
5 E
6 F
7 G
8 H
S GANTT
u im
D xy dng
D nhn bit cng tc, thi gian thc hin cng tc
Thy tng thi gian thc hin cc cng tc

Nhc im
Khng th hin c mi quan h gia cc cng tc
Khng th hin quy trnh cng ngh
Ch ph hp vi d n quy m nh, n gin
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VD: S GANTT TRONG MS. PROJECT
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PHNG PHP CPM
c pht trin bi cng ty DuPont (1957)
Thi gian thc hin cc cng tc kh chc chn
S mng:
AON




AOA
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A
C
B
D
1
2
3 4
B
D C
A
CC DNG CNG TC TRONG S AOA
Cng tc/ cng vic (Activity)



Cng tc o/ gi (Dummy Activity)



Cng tc ch
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1 2
A
1 2
A
1 2
A
NGUYN TC LP S AOA
Mi cng tc c biu din ch bng 1 mi tn
Cc mi tn ch th hin mi quan h trc sau
Ch c s kin bt u ch c cng tc i; ch c s
kin kt thc ch c cng tc n
Hai cng tc ring bit khng c cng s kin xut
pht v s kin kt thc
Cc cng tc khng lp thnh vng kn
Khng nn c qu nhiu cng tc giao ct nhau
S phi phn nh c trnh k thut ca cng
tc v quan h k thut gia chng
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CC THNG S TRN S MNG AOA
Thi im sm nht s kin xy ra (EO)
Thi im sm nht cng tc bt u (ES)
Thi im mun nht s kin xy ra (LO)
Thi im mun nht cng tc bt u (LS)
Cc loi thi gian d tr

Xc nh cc thng s
Theo chiu xui
Theo chiu ngc
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CC THNG S TRN S MNG AOA
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j
i
k
l
EO
i
LO
i

EO
j
LO
j

EO
k
LO
k

EO
l
LO
l

LS
ij
LS
jk

LS
jl

t
ij

t
jk

t
jl

CC DNG THI GIAN D TR
50
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Thi gian d
tr tng


Thi gian d
tr an ton

Thi gian d
tr t do

Thi gian d
tr c lp
EO
i
LO
i
EO
j
LO
j

i
j
t
ij

CC THNG S TRN S MNG AOA
Thi gian d tr ca cng tc

Cc loi thi gian d tr
Thi gian d tr tng

Thi gian d tr an ton

Thi gian d tr t do

Thi gian d tr c lp
51
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O

C
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N
H

V

P

T
I

N

ij ij i j ij ij ij
TF t EO LO ES LS S = = = ) 1 (
ij i j ij
t LO LO S = ) 2 (
ij i j ij
t EO EO S = ) 3 (
ij i j ij
t LO EO S = ) 4 (
ij ij ij
ES LS TF =
CC THNG S TRN S AON
52
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C
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0 2 2
1. ng cc
0 C 2
Thi gian thc hin
cng tc (t)
ES
LS
EF
LF
Cng tc gng
8 2 10
4. Xy nn
23 15 25
Thi gian d tr ca
cng tc khng gng
MI QUAN H GIA CC CNG TC
Quan h FS (Finish to Start)






53
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A B B A
L=6 FS=6
0 2 2
1. b tng
0 C 2
8 10 18
2. Xy
8 C 18
FS=6
MI QUAN H GIA CC CNG TC
Quan h SS (Start to Start)
54
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O

C
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N
H

V

P

T
I

N

A
B
B A
L=4
SS=4
0 6 6
1. o mng
0 C 6
4 4 8
2. b
4 C 8
SS=4
MI QUAN H GIA CC CNG TC
Quan h FF (Finish to Finish)
55
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O

C
H

N
H

V

P

T
I

N

A
B
B A
L=5
FF=5
0 6 6
1. A
0 C 6
47 4 11
2. B
7 C 11
FF=5
MI QUAN H GIA CC CNG TC
Quan h SF (Start to Finish)
56
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C
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H

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P

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I

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A B B A
L=30
SF=30
0 6 6
1. A
0 C 6
26 4 30
2. B
26 C 30
SF=30
V D: S MNG
57
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O

C
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N
H

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P

T
I

N

PHNG PHP PERT
Thi gian lc quan a
thi gian hon thnh cng tc trong iu kin tt nht
Thi gian bi quan b
thi gian hon thnh cng tc trong iu kin xu nht
Thi gian thc hin m
thi gian hon thnh cng tc trong iu kin bnh thng

58
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O

C
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H

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P

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I

N

1 2
a m b
PHN PHI BETA
59
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n
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O

C
H

N
H

V

P

T
I

N

a m b
Xc sut xy
ra a l 1%
Xc sut xy
ra b l 1%
Xc
sut
PHNG PHP PERT (TT)
Thi gian k vng t
e


Nu khng th xc nh m


Phng sai ca thi gian thc hin cng tc t
ij



Phng sai ca ton b cng tc

60
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C
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6
4 b m a
t
e
+ +
=
6
3 2 b a
t
e
+
=
2
2
6
|
.
|

\
|

=
a b
ij
o

=
2 2
ij
o o
PHNG PHP PERT (TT)
Cc bc thc hin phng php PERT
V s mng
Tnh t
ij
v
ij
2
ca mi cng tc
Dng phng php CPM vi t
ij
= t
e
xc nh cng tc
gng v ng gng
Xc nh kh nng hon thnh d n trong thi gian mong
mun
S thi gian ti thiu hon thnh d n trong iu kin trung
bnh
D thi gian hon thnh d n mong mun

2
phng sai ca tt c cng tc gng





61
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O

C
H

N
H

V

P

T
I

=
2 2
ij
S D S D
Z
o o
PHNG PHP PERT (TT)
Cc thng tin m phng php PERT cung cp:
Thi gian hon thnh d n
Xc sut hon thnh d n trong thi gian cho sn
ng gng v cc cng tc gng. Nu bt k cng tc
gng no b ko di, th tng thi gian hon thnh d n
cng b ko di
Cc cng tc khng gng v thi gian d tr tng ng.
Nh qun l d n c th s dng tm ngun ti nguyn
ca chng xc tin ton b d n
Bit c tin thc hin chi tit v thi gian bt u v
kt thc ca cc cng tc
62
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C
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N
H

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V D: S MNG/ PERT
63
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C
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H

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IU CHNH S MNG THEO THI GIAN
Khi thi gian mong mun D nh hn S????

Cc bin php rt ngn thi gian ng gng S:
B tr thc hin cc cng tc song song thay v ni tip
Phn phi li ti nguyn: tng nhn cng, tng gi lao
ng, tng cng sut my
Thay i bin php k thut

lm th no rt ngn S vi chi ph tng ln l nh
nht???
64
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O

C
H

N
H

V

P

T
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IU CHNH S MNG THEO THI GIAN (TT)
Cc bc thc hin rt ngn thi gian S:
1. Tm ng gng chun v cc cng tc gng
2. Tnh chi ph rt ngn trong mt n v thi gian cho tt c
cc cng tc trn s mng
CP rt ngn CP chun
CP rt ngn n v =
Tgian chun Tgian rt ngn

3. La chn cc cng tc trn ng gng m chi ph rt
ngn trong mt n v thi gian l nh nht. Ct gim thi
gian thc hin cng tc ny theo yu cu v trong phm vi
ti a cho php
4. Kim tra li ng gng:
Nu ng gng c cn tn ti: lp li bc 3
Nu khng th phi tm ng gng mi v lp li bc 3

65
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O

C
H

N
H

V

P

T
I

N

IU CHNH TIN D N
66
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4
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O

C
H

N
H

V

P

T
I

N

IU CHNH TIN D N VD 4.5
67
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C
H

N
H

V

P

T
I

N

IU CHNH S MNG THEO THI GIAN (TT)
Quy trnh ko di thi gian hon thnh d n:
1. Xc nh ng gng v cc cng tc gng
2. Tnh chi ph ko di trong mt thi on ca tt c cc
cng tc
3. Trc tin ko di thi gian ca cc cng tc khng nm
trn ng gng vi chi ph ko di ln nht
4. Kim tra li ng gng
1. Nu ng gng c cn tn ti: lp li bc 3
2. Nu xut hin ng gng mi th ko di cc cng tc trn
ng gng no c chi ph ln nht v lp li bc 3

68
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C
H

N
H

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I

N

PHN B NGUN LC
Khi lng ngun lc
Khi nim: qu trnh tnh ton tng khi lng mi ngun
lc ca cc cng tc trong d n mi thi on thc
hin d n
Mc ch: c hiu bit chung v nhu cu m mt d n s
s dng ngun lc ca cng ty
Cch xc nh ngun lc: ngun lc c th c xc nh
da trn nhng nh mc sn c hoc da trn kinh
nghim khi vn hnh

69
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C
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H

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IU HA KHI LNG NGUN LC
70
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RNG BUC LIN QUAN N NGUN LC
71
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C
H

N
H

V

P

T
I

N

Thi gian
PHN B NGUN LC (TT)
Cn bng ngun lc
Khi nim: qu trnh lp thi gian biu cho cc cng tc
sao cho vic s dng ngun lc l cn bng nhau sut
qu trnh thc hin d n
Vic cn bng c thc hin bng cch dch chuyn cc
cng tc trong thi gian d tr cho php ca chng
Mc ch:
Gim dao ng trong vic huy ng cc ngun lc
Vic s dng ngun lc u n c th dn n CP thp hn
Vic trin khai d n n nh hn
Gim bt cng sc/ n lc qun l
72
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g

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O

C
H

N
H

V

P

T
I

N

PHN B NGUN LC (TT)
Cc bc thc hin
T s mng chuyn sang s thanh ngang theo
phng thc trin khai sm
V s khi lng mi ngun lc
Chn ngun lc dao ng nhiu nht. Dch chuyn cc
cng tc c s dng ngun lc ny trong thi gian d tr
ca chng cn bng vic s dng ngun lc ny sut
d n
V li s khi lng cho tt c cc ngun lc. Chn
ngun lc k tip v lp li bc trn

73
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n
g

4
:

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O

C
H

N
H

V

P

T
I

N

74
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h

n
g

4
:

H
O

C
H

N
H

V

P

T
I

N

75
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h

n
g

4
:

H
O

C
H

N
H

V

P

T
I

N

76
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h

n
g

4
:

H
O

C
H

N
H

V

P

T
I

N

77
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h

n
g

4
:

H
O

C
H

N
H

V

P

T
I

N

78
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h

n
g

4
:

H
O

C
H

N
H

V

P

T
I

N

79
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h

n
g

4
:

H
O

C
H

N
H

V

P

T
I

N

80
C
h

n
g

4
:

H
O

C
H

N
H

V

P

T
I