A REVIEW ON THE YOUNG HISTORY OF THE WIND POWER SHORT-TERM PREDICTION

Copyright 2007 Elsevier Ltd All rights reserved

Received 1 December 2006; accepted 9 January 2007 Available online 13 April 2007

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Keywords:
Wind Energy Short Term Prediction Forecasting Methods Models (mathematical) Statistics Models (physical) Meteorology

Alexandre Costa Antonio Crespo Jorge Navarro Gil Lizcano

Wind Energy, Division of Renewable Energies, CIEMAT Laboratorio de Mecnica de Fluidos, Departmento de Ingeniera Energtica y Fluidomecnica Wind Energy, Division of Renewable Energies, CIEMAT Oxford University Centre for the Environment

Henrik Madsen

Informatics and Mathematical Modelling - IMM

Everaldo Feitosa

Brazilian Wind Energy CentreCBEE

Abstract
This paper makes a brief review on 30 years of history of the wind power short-term prediction, since the first ideas and sketches on the theme to the actual state of the art on models and tools, giving emphasis to the most significant proposals and developments. The two principal lines of thought on short-term prediction (mathematical and physical) are indistinctly treated here and comparisons between models and tools are avoided, mainly because, on the one hand, a standard for a measure of performance is still not adopted and, on the other hand, it is very important that the data are exactly the same in order to compare two models (this fact makes it almost impossible to carry out a quantitative comparison between a huge number of models and methods). In place of a quantitative description, a qualitative approach is preferred for this review, remarking the contribution (and innovative aspect) of each model. On the basis of the review, some topics for future research are pointed out.

Article Outline
1. Introduction 2. Review 2.1. Before the 1990s 2.2. The 1990s 2.3. Since year 2000 3. Conclusions Acknowledgements References

Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Volume 12, Issue 6, August 2008, Pages 1725-1744 Alexandre Costa, Antonio Crespo, Jorge Navarro, Gil Lizcano, Henrik Madsen and Everaldo Feitosa

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