Water Resources Management 12: 3150, 1998. c 1998 Kluwer Academic Publishers. Printed in the Netherlands.

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A Review on Monthly Water Balance Models for Water Resources Investigations

C.-Y. XU1 and V. P. SINGH2
Hydrology Division, Uppsala University, Norbyv agen 18B, 75236 Uppsala, Sweden. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, Louisiana 708036405, U.S.A.
2 1

(Received: 7 May 1996; in nal form: 1 November 1996 Abstract. Research on the development and application of monthly water balance models has been carried out since the 1940s. A good body of experience has been gained for many models, and a review of these models is needed. Beginning with the development of monthly water balance models from the earliest times, this paper discusses the relevance of various aspects of the practical application of such models. Monthly water balance models were introduced originally to evaluate the importance of different hydrologic parameters under a variety of hydrologic conditions. Present applications of water balance models are directed along three main lines: reconstruction of the hydrology of catchments, assessment of climatic impact changes, and evaluation of the seasonal and geographical patterns of water supply and irrigation demand. Key words: monthly water balance models, review, water resources investigation, climatic impact assessment.

1. Introduction Water balance models have been developed at various time scales (e.g. hourly, daily, monthly and yearly) and to varying degrees of complexity. Monthly water balance models were rst developed in the 1940s by Thornthwaite (1948) and later revised by Thornthwaite and Mather (1955, 1957). These models have since been adopted, modied, and applied to a wide spectrum of hydrological problems (e.g. Gabos and Gasparri, 1983; Alley, 1984, 1985; Vandewiele et al., 1992; Xu and Vandewiele, 1995). Recently, they have been employed to explore the impact of climatic change (e.g. Schaake and Liu, 1989; Arnell, 1992; Xu and Halldin, 1996). They also have been utilized for long-range streamow forecasting (e.g. Alley, 1985; Xu and Vandewiele, 1995). Although such applications may use hourly or daily models, these models are however more data intensive and have more parameters than do the corresponding monthly models. With increasing use of monthly water balance models to address a range of hydrological problems, a considerable amount of effort is being devoted to the development of such models and techniques for their parameter estimation. A variety of models and parameter estimation algorithms have been considered, ranging from relatively complex conceptual models with 10 to 15 parameters for

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arid regions in Africa (e.g. Pitman, 1973) to very simple models with 2 to 5 parameters for humid regions in temperate zones (e.g. Vandewiele et al., 1992; Makhlouf and Michel, 1994; and Xu et al., 1996a). Although a great deal of experience has been gained for many models, there is a continuing need to upgrade the models and test them against practical requirements. Additionally, model users must be given the opportunity to become familiar with the models and to develop a good working knowledge of their sensitivity, and strengths and weaknesses. There is, therefore, a need to take stock of such models and review them. Such a review does not appear to have been reported. The objective of this study is to discuss the current state of the art and the assumptions and limitations of monthly water balance models by introducing a set of representative models that have been used world wide. This eventually leads to the development of guidelines for the model selection process. It is, however, not the intention of this paper to discuss all the models that have appeared in the literature. The paper is organized as follows. After this brief introduction, Section 2 begins with the development of monthly water balance models from the earliest times, and discusses practical applications of such models for water resources investigations. The models reviewed here are rst grouped by their principal objectives, and a subgrouping based on the input data requirements is provided. Beginning with a discussion of the models with precipitation as input, which are useful tools in those regions where other meterological variables are not available, we consider the models with precipitation, temperature and/or potential evaporation as input. Most of the available monthly water balance models belong in this group. Thereafter, we review the monthly water balance models that use daily input data which can provide a better estimation of actual evapotranspiration. Monthly water balance models used for seasonally snow-covered regions are discussed in Section 3. Monthly water balance models used for applications other than to investigate the importance of different hydrological vriables in diverse watersheds are also discussed in this Section. These are exemplied by applications of monthly water balance models for climate-change inpact assessment, for river ow forecasting, for water project design and operation, etc. A discussion of the present status of monthly water balance models and the possible future developments is presented in Section 4. The spatial scale included in the review ranges from a few km2 to several thousand km2 . The paper is concluded in Section 5. 2. Monthly Water Balance Models for Water Resources Investigations The principal and traditional use of monthly water balance models has been to investigate the importance of different hydrologic variables in diverse watersheds. Many monthly water balance models have been developed for this purpose.

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2.1. MODELS USING PRECIPITATION (RAINFALL) AS INPUT

In general precipitation constitutes the largest component in a water balance equation. The derivation of a relationship between rainfall over a catchment and the resulting ow in a river is a fundamental problem in hydrology. In most countries, there are usually plenty of rainfall records, but the streamow data are often limited and are rarely available for the specic river under investigation. The need to evaluate river discharges from rainfall has therefore stimulated a great deal of research. A number of monthly water balance models have been developed using only precipitation (rainfall) as input. Examples of this kind of model are given below. Snyder (1963) developed the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) model for prediction of monthly water yield. The model partitions runoff into three components: (1) immediate runoff, calculated as some portion of precipitation during the current month; (2) delayed runoff, calculated using a linear reservoir concept; and (3) time function, assumed to have no interaction with other components. Kuczera (1982) used a modied version of Fierings (1967) model for describing the hydrology of a catchment near Ocala, Florida. Monthly precipitation, pt , used as the sole input, was divided into three parts by using two parameters a and b; the expected evapotranspiration bpt , the expected aquifer recharge apt (delayed by one time interval), and the expected direct runoff (1ab)pt . A third parameter, c, was used to model the base ow which is a fraction c of water storage mt 1 at the beginning of the month: cmt 1 . A time-variant model was reported by Gabos and Gasparri (1983). It is a single linear-reservoir model. The model uses two parameters to divide precipitation into three parts, i.e. direct runoff, inltration, and evapotranspiration in a similar way as in the preceding model, and another two parameters are used for regulation of the underground reservoir. The rst two parameters are allowed to vary with time. Tuffuor and Labadie (1973) used a nonlinear time-variant model for modeling monthly or seasonal data for the Todzie River in Ghana. It has 3  n parameters to be determined, and 1  n  12 is the number of seasons dened per year. A common feature of these models is that evapotranspiration is calculated as a fraction of the precipitation (rainfall) and the rest of the precipitation (rainfall) is considered empirically as either inltration and/or direct runoff. The respects in which the models differ are that the fraction is either time invariant or time variant, and the equations are either linear or nonlinear. Estimation of evapotranspiration as a fraction of rainfall is, clearly, not reliable on a monthly time scale, since it is not unusual for evapotranspiration to be greater than precipitation, especially during those months that follow immediately the end of the rainy season, and the fact that rainfall is highly variable in most parts of the world. Nevertheless, these models can be used as approximate tools for water resources planning in those regions where no other meteorological data are available.

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2.2. MONTHLY MODELS USING RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURE AS INPUT Four water balance models previously reported in the literature were discussed by Alley (1984) and Vandewiele et al. (1992) in their comparative studies. The rst model is the Thornthwaite and Mathers (1955) T-model. It is a model with two storages: soil moisture index mt and water surplus vt . The model has two parameters: soil moisture capacity a1 and storage constant a2 for vt . The second model is Alleys (1984) T -model. This model is a modication of the preceding model in that a fraction a3 of the precipitation is immediately transformed into direct runoff. The rest of the precipitation then enters the system as before. The third model is Thomass (1981) abcd-model. There are also two storages in this model: groundwater storage and soil moisture storage. The fourth model is Palmers (1965) and Alleys (1984) P-model. Palmer (1965) used a water balance model to develop an index of meteorological drought. The model is unusual in that it uses a root constant concept in calculating evapotranspiration. The common feature of these four models is that the temperature was used as a driving force to estimate potential evapotranspiration by the Thornthwaite approach, which together with monthly rainfall was used as input data for the models. These models differ in their treatment of the relationship between actual and potential evapotranspiration and of soil moisture accounting and aquifer recharge. Alley (1984) reported that all of these four models did well in simulating annual ows but less well in simulating monthly ows. The main weaknesses of these models are: (1) state variables simulated by different models may be quite different and the result is often an unrealistic simulation of soil moisture storage; (2) very high correlations have been found between parameters; and (3) in some cases parameter values have the tendency during optimization to overstep the physical contraints. A comparative study performed by Vandewiele et al. (1992) conrmed the above ndings of Alley (1984). 2.3. MODELS USING MONTHLY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL EVAPORATION AS INPUT Monthly areal precipitation and potential evapotranspiration have been used as the sole inputs to most monthly rainfall-runoff models. These models have been developed in a wide range of climatic regions for an extensive range of applications and vary considerably in their complexity. An example of the models for generating monthly river ows for the South African catchments is the model developed by Pitman (1973, 1978). This model became most popular in African countries. It uses 12 parameters to compute actual evapotranspiration, interception, surface runoff, soil moisture and runoff from upper and lower zones. Roberts (1979) developed a monthly model based on an hourly model developed by Krzystofowicz and Diskin (1978). The model has two storages: interception and soil moisture storage, and uses essentially eight parameters. The unusual part of this model in comparison to most other models is that the amount of base ow is not a function of the soil moisture level but of the total runoff,

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reducing the dependence of the model results on the soil moisture levels, which are seldom accurately reproduced (Roberts, 1979). Hughes (1982) modied the daily model developed by Roberts (1978) and converted it to a monthly model. The model retains a similar structure as the preceding one, but a particular characteristic of the model is that the single soil moisture storage is represented by a container with various shapes. Salas et al. (1986) presented a conceptual simulation model with the objective to simulate the various hydrological processes occurring in a watershed at a monthly or seasonal time scale. This model is space distributed on monthly time scale and assumes that the watershed can be divided into a number of sub-watersheds. The model has a total of 11 parameters, some of them are obtained by optimization and others are determined by judgement and/or trial and error. The above-mentioned four models belong to the deterministic type and have relatively complicated structure as far as monthly ow simulation is concerned. A number of simpler monthly water balance models have been reported recently. Vandewiele et al. (1992) and Xu (1992) proposed a series of models which are variants of the monthly water balance model developed by Van der Beken and Byloos (1977). The number of parameters used in the description of the hydrological phenomena in the catchments is in most cases three, sometimes four. The models were successfully applied to nearly 100 catchemnts from Belgium, China and Burma. Makhlouf and Michel (1994) reported a two-parameter monthly water balance model for French watersheds, GR2M, which originated from a daily rainfall-runoff model of Edijatno and Michel (1989). 2.4. MONTHLY MODELS USING DAILY INPUT DATA Haan (1972) developed a model for simulating monthly streamow by using daily time step. The estimated average potential evapotranspiration and daily rainfall are used as input. The model has two storages and uses four parameters: the maximum possible inltration rate, the maximum possible seepage rate, the maximum capacity of that part of the soils moisture-holding capacity which is less readily available for evapotranspiration, and the constant dening the fraction of seepage that becomes runoff. The model was developed for small catchments since no lag time is considered from rainfall incidence to the appearance of runoff at the gauging station. Kuczera (1983b) developed a water balance model from that used by Langford et al. (1978) for the Slip Creek catchment, which computes monthly runoff by using a daily time step. The model has two storages: a quick response storage contributes to quick response ow and the soil storage contributes to base ow. The seepage loss function was introduced into the model because studies of annual water balance and stream chemistry suggest that not all runoff produced by the catchment is observed. In all, the model contains nine parameters. McMahon and Mein modied the Boughton model (1973) by including a baseow routine with a double recession characteristic, and used the model to estimate monthly ows for the Thomson River at the Narrows. The inputs for the model are daily

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catchment rainfall and monthly evaporation. The model has three storages and uses 10 parameters. It can also be used to simulate daily runoff when some years of daily ow records are available for calibration. It is believed that the use of daily rainfall as input improves the estimation of such processes as inltration, evapotranspiration, interception, and depression storage. On the other hand, the use of daily data increases the amount of work and may limit research to fewer catchments instead of water balance computations over large geographical units. 2.5. SUMMARY AND COMPARISON OF MODELS DISCUSSED IN SECTIONS 2.1 TO 2.4 Four different types of monthly water balance models have been reviewed with respect to their input data requirements, assumptions, uses and limitations. A summery is shown in Table I. 3. Other Applications of Monthly Water Balance Models 3.1. SNOWMELT SIMULATION Snowfall and snowmelt play a signicant role in the hydrologic regime in many parts of the world. Snow has received attention as a water resource, primarily in the northern part of North America, Europe, and Asia. For hydrologic purposes, the water content is more important than depth, unless one is interested in the insulating properties of snow as in soil-freezing studies. The problem of snowmelt runoff modeling associated with climatic and physiographic conditions are functions of data availability, regional characteristics, modeling approach, and model application. Many of these problems are common to all models and regions, whereas others are unique to specic models or regions. The more universal problems are generally associated with data constraints, whereas the more unique problems are associated with model formulation and the climatic and physiographic conditions of a region. The use of the energy balance technique results in a model which may be very close to being correct, but which may be unwieldy to use, except in very specialized, highly instrumented situations. The energy balance approach uses a form of the energy balance equation for a snowpack that can be written as (e.g. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 1956; Gray and ONeill, 1974): Hm = Hsn + H1n + Hc + He Hg + Hp + Hq (1)

where Hm = energy available for snowmelt, Hsn = net shortwave radiation, H1n = net longwave radiation, Hc = convective heat ux, He = latent heat ux, Hg = conduction of heat from the ground, Hp = heat content of rain drops, and Hq = change in energy content of the snowpack. The variables necessary for a complete heat budget computation according to Equation (1) include total solar radiation, albedo, longwave radiation balance

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Table I. A comparison of models discussed in Sections 2.1 through 2.4 Common features (1) They describe conceptually land-based hydrologic process or processes which are spatially averaged or lumped. (2) Some of their parameters (if not all) are estimated by tting to observed hydrologic data such as rainfall and streamow. (3) They are specic-purpose models concerned primarily with streamow simulation. (4) They have a relatively simple structure and a small number of parameters compared with other short-period models. (5) The basis of such models is the equation of continuity, that is the water balance equation. Despite the lengthy period over which these models have been developed, it is seen that they differ more in matters of detail than in broad concept. The models differ mainly in the following respects: (1) Their requirement of input data. (2) Their treatment of soil moisture accounting and aquifer recharge. The number of storages considered varies from one (e.g. models in Section 2.1) to three (e.g. Salas et al., 1986, in Section 2.3). (3) Their representation of the number of hydrologic processes. In the models discussed in Section 2.1, only evapotranspiration, fast ow and slow ow are considered in a very simple manner. In some of models mentioned in Section 2.3, interception, surface runoff, inltration, evapotranspiration, deep percolation, base ow and ground water ow are calculated. (1) In view of the availability of universally more reliable models, the models in Section 2.1 cannot be recommended when other meteorological data besides precipitation are available. (2) The models in Section 2.2 can be used in reproducing annual and seasonal ows when only precipitation and temperature are available, but the state variable simulated by these models may be unrealistic, as mentioned by Alley (1984) and conrmed later by Vandewiele et al. (1992). (3) In view of the treatment of hydrologic processes and the way that input information is utilized, models in Section 2.3 and 2.4 are more reliable. They give not only better estimates of monthly ow, but also more reliable estimates of other water balance components, such as, actual evapotranspiration, surface and base ows and soil moisture content, etc. Moreover, application of such models to ungauged catchments by relating model parameters with physical characteristics of catchments is possible (see Section 3.4 for details).

Different features

Applications and limitations

(effective radiation), air temperature, air humidity, wind speed, temperature gradients in the soil and in snow, and precipitation. In addition to these variables some physical parameters governing heat exchange with the atmosphere, heat transfer within the snowpack, liquid water content in the snow, and drainage of the snowpack, would have to be estimated. Limitations on the availability of some of these

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data on the techniques to extrapolate point measurements to areal mean values have restricted most applications of Equation (1) to snowmelt studies at a point or on small plots (Leavesley, 1989). Due to the above-mentioned difculties in water balance modeling, emphasis has been put on determining snowmelt by use of air temperature or a temperature index. The temperature index approach is more empirical and is expressed in the general form as M = Cm (Ta Tb ) (2) where M = snow melt (mm); Cm = melt factor (mm/ C); Ta = air temperature ( C); and Tb = base temperature ( C). For most cases, Tb is assumed to be a constant; in some cases, it is also considered as a model parameter. In the literature, there are many different versions of Equation (2) in which Ta is replaced by maximum daily temperature, minimum daily temperature, etc. (e.g. Woo, 1972; Lang, 1984; Power, 1986; Martinec and Range, 1986; and Moussavi, 1988). Moussavi et al. (1989, 1990) developed and compared different structures of a monthly water yield model for seasonally snow-covered mountainous watersheds in Iran. In the recommended form of the model, snowmelt was calculated as Mt = 0.06[tt max )2 (tt max * tt min )] (3) where Mt = the total melt depth (mm) over month t; tt max = the average daily maximum air temperature ( C) in month t; and tt min = the average daily minimum air temperature ( C) in month t. Xu et al. (1996a) applied a monthly water balance model to 11 seasonally snow-covered catchments in central Sweden. The uncommon feature of the model is that the calculation of snowmelt is considered as a fraction of the snow storage similar to the one used by Vandewiele and Ni-Lar-Win (1993). The fraction is an increasing function of monthly air temperature as

mt spt

n
1

Ta a2  a1 a2  2

(4)

where spt 1 is the snow storage at the beginning of the month t, and a1 and a2 are model parameters with the constraint a1  a2 . 3.2. CLIMATIC CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT In the last 10 years, monthly water balance models have been used to explore the impact of climatic change (e.g. Gleick, 1986, 1987; Schaake and Liu, 1989; Arnell, 1992). Gleick (1986) reviewed various approaches for evaluating the regional hydrologic impacts of global climatic change and presented a series of criteria for choosing among the different methods. He concluded that the use of monthly water balance models appears to offer signicant advantages over other methods in accuracy, exibility, and ease of use. Several case studies were reported.

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Gleick (1987) developed and tested a monthly water balance model for climatic impact assessment for the Sacramento basin. The model works well under conditions of stationary climate and includes various capabilities to imcorporate changes in climatic variables. The results suggest that the application of such models may provide considerably more information on regional hydrologic effects of climate change than is currently available. Schaake and Liu (1989) developed and used simple monthly water balance models to understand the relationship between climate and water resources for more than 50 catchments from eastern China and throughout the south-eastern U.S.A. Arnall (1992) used Thornthwaite and Mathers (1955) T model, as summarized in Section 2.2, together with a number of realistic climate change scenarios to examine the factors controlling the effects of climate change on 15 catchments in the U.K., which represented a wide range of climatic and geological conditions. In favour of using conceptual water balance models rather than physically based models or black-box models, he stated that the detailed realism of a physically based model posed a different set of complications. First, the physically based models require high resolution, in both space and time, of climatic input data that may not be available; and, second, it is possible that model parameters may need to change as climate evolves: soil structure may change, for example, as summers become drier, and more importantly, the distribution and composition of catchment vegetation will probably alter. There are at present too many unknowns for detailed physically based models to be used in climate impact studies. On the other hand, parameters of black-box empirical models that simply reect the current relationship between climate and hydrological response may not remain valid in changed climatic circumstances, and such models therefore are not suitable for this kind of study. 3.3. FLOW FORECASTING AND WATER PROJECT DESIGN Two examples of using simple monthly water balance models for river ow forecasting and simulation needed in design and control of water resources systems were reported by Alley (1985) and Xu and Vandewiele (1995). In water supply projects (irrigation, drinking, and hydroelectricity), problems can be solved with use of monthly models, as easily calibrated and easily obtainable input variables can be acquired by the engineer in charge of water resources projects. Forecasting even on a monthly scale can be used for real time control, e.g. in irrigation and hydropower generation. Another direct application of the monthly water balance models to water project design, as demonstrated by Xu and Vandewiele (1995), is as follows. On a given river a dam is to be built in order to meet a given water demand. The problem is to decide on the capacity of the dam. A useful aid to this decision is the knowledge of the return period of water shortages as a function of dam capacity. A fundamental requirement for the study is a long monthly runoff series. Because the observed runoff series is usually short, say, less than 20 years, a long synthetic ow record has to be generated. This can be done in several ways.

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One way of doing this is to use water balance models to simulate a longer runoff series based on the much longer rainfall series. 3.4. FLOW RECORD GENERATION IN UNGAUGED CATCHMENTS One of the main objectives in the development of a conceptual water balance model is to provide a model that can be used on ungauged catchments to generate a record of runoff for planning and design purposes. To be successful in this approach, the number of parameters has to be small, since keeping the number of parameters as low as possible increases the information content per parameter and therefore allows both a more accurate determination of the parameter and a more reliable correlation of the values obtained with catchment characteristics (Dooge, 1977). Monthly water balance models usually have a simple structure and a small number of parameters which have led to some successful studies in the eld. Jarboe and Haan (1974) used a multiple linear regression method to relate each of four parameters of Haans model and measurable catchment characteristics. Magette et al. (1976) used Joness (1976) procedure to t a subset of six parameters of the Kentucky watershed model, and were able to obtain acceptable multiple regression equations using indices of 15 watershed characteristics. Gabos and Gasparri (1983) expressed four model parameters as functions of some measurable factors, such as catchment area, average slope, catchment permeability, etc. Vandewiele et al. (1991) successfully related three parameters of a monthly water balance model to the lithological characteristics of Belgian catchments. Servat and Dezette (1993) related catchment characteristics to parameters of two monthly water balance models; one model had seven parameters and the other had three parameters. Better results were obtained for the three-parameter model. More recently, Vandewiele and Elias (1995) used two techniques for obtaining parameter values of a monthly water balance model for ungauged basins in Belgium. It was found that the Kriging technique was signicantly better than the method using the parameter values of a few neighboring basins. Xu et al. (1996b) developed relationships between parameters of a monthly water balance model and the land-use data for Swedish catchments. Regression equations were used to calculate model parameters from catchment characteristics. Simulation of annual runoff based on these parameter values showed an average absolute error of prediction for nine catchments to be less than 1% with a maximum error of 20% for one catchment. 4. Discussion and Prospects 4.1. PURPOSE Although a major factor in determining the form of a model for hydrologic prediction is the availability of resources (which may be expressed in terms of time, availability of data, computing facilities, and human resources of training, experience and creativity, etc.), the primary factor to be considered is the purpose

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for which the model is required. Discussions on the relative methods of different approaches to modeling are often resolved when the primary purpose of each is stated explicitly. The principal uses of monthly water balance models can be summarized as: (1) synthesis of long-term records of basins, (2) generation of runoff records for ungauged basins, (3) provision of hydrological data as inputs for validation of deterministic general circulation models, (4) forecasting of the yield within one or two months for real time control of water resources systems, (5) derivation of climatic and hydrological regional classications, and (6) forecasting of possible hydrologic effects of changes in land use and climate change. Although these objectives may be derived from hourly or daily models, the use of monthly water balance models is preferred for the following reasons: (a) short-term models are more data intensive and in many cases those data are not available, and (b) shortterm models are usually far more complicated; some models took years to develop and thousand of man-hours to use. 4.2. CONCEPTS AND STRUCTURE Hydrologic models are frequently classied into three types (e.g. Singh, 1989, 1995), the empirical models (also called in the literature black-box models), the conceptual models (grey-box models) and theoretical models (sometimes called white-box models). The block-box models relate outputs to inputs through a structure which may be wholly statistical or partly mathematical and does not aid in physical understanding, as in the application of linear and nonlinear systems theory. Hydrologic models here are considered as comceptual if the form of model equations is suggested by consideration of the physical processes acting upon the inputs and outputs in a highly simplied form. The theoretical models have a logical structure similar to the real-world system and may be helpful in changed circumstances. Monthly conceptual water balance models purport to simulate selected hydrological processes usually by conceptualizing the catchment as an assemblage of interconnected storages, through which water passes from input as rainfall to output as streamow at the catchment outlet; the controlling equations satisfy the water balance requirement. In recent years there has been an increasing trend toward the development of physically based models (Beven, 1989). However, it is apparent that there are problems associated with the application of physically based models (e.g. Hughes, 1989). It would appear that future developments in hydrological modeling techniques face a dilemma. Modeling studies can contribute to the understanding of hydrological processes at various scales, but only if uncertainties related to the quality of the model input information can be overcome. The ability of the user to provide such models with the information that they need has not kept pace with recent model developments (e.g. the SHE model of Abbott et al., 1986). Any indi-

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vidual model user is therefore faced with a choice of using either a sophisticated model with less than perfect input data or a less complex model, based upon a simpler conceptualization of known reality, for which the data requirements are less stringent. A specic model application can be dened by the nature of the catchment response characteristics and prevailing climate inputs as well as by the type of model output required and the availability of information with which to evaluate parameter values and the required input data. 4.3. METHODS OF COMPUTATION OF THE MAIN WATER BALANCE COMPONENTS 4.3.1. Precipitation In general, precipitation is the major input for water balance models. The accuracy of measurement and computation of precipitation from a network of stations determines to a considerable extent the reliability of water balance computations. In discussing computer models, Linsley (1967) stated that with adequate amounts of the proper kinds of hydrologic data, streamow hydrographs can be reproduced which are as accurate as the input supplied. The input with the greatest variability is rainfall. Therefore, the accuracy of streamow simulation depends primarily on how well the variability can be dened in a specic case. No reliable water balance computation is possible with insufcient knowledge of the spatial rainfall patterns. Areal rainfall may be incorrect both randomly and systematically. Recently, Xu and Vandewiele (1992, 1994) examined the inuence of rainfall errors on the performance of monthly water balance models for Belgian and Chinese catchments. It showed that: (1) random errors in rainfall data affect the model performance adversely, and signicant effects on model performance are expected when the random errors go up to 10% and 15% for Chinese and Belgian catchments, respectively; (2) systematic errors in rainfall data have a serious effect on the model parameter values. A variety of general interpolation methods is available for areal estimation (e.g. Rainbird, 1976). For selecting the best-suited method for computation of mean precipitation over an area, we have to take into account the following controlling factors (Dyck, 1983): requirements of the water balance (spatial and temporal resolution), spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation, density and distribution of the precipitation network, variability of precipitation events (structure of precipitation distribution), available data, and possibilities of practical realization. Remote-sening and satellite data can be used for catchment modeling (e.g. Singh, 1995). Raders are employed for rainfall measurement. Satellite data can be used for estimation of area and intensity of rainfall. An application combining remote-sensing techniques based on satellite imagery and ground-based radar with a network of recording raingauges for calibration holds promise in the future.

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4.3.2. Evapotranspiration In general, evapotranspiration is the second largest quantity in a hydrological water balance. Accurate spatial and temporal predictions of ET are required for water balance models. Complex models for determining evapotranspiration have been developed. The best example of such models is the Penman-Monteith method (Monteith, 1965). These plot or site models with high temporal resolution were developed for agricultural crops and forest stands and were established on soil physical, plant physiological and climatic parameters (Halldin, 1979). But even one-dimensional dynamic continuous simulation models of water state and ow in the soil-plant-atmosphere system are too complex for water balance computation of drainage basins. Therefore, the calculation of evapotranspiration for water balance studies has to relay on simplied treatments. In water balance models, most investigators have found it necessary to derive actual evapotranspiration as a function of potential evapotranspiration and the dryness of the soil (e.g. Palmer, 1965; Dyck, 1983; Xu, 1992): ET = PET f(SM) (5)

where ET and PET are actual and potential evapotranspiration, respectively; f(SM) is a function of soil moisture, SM. Different forms of the function f(SM) have been studied by Roberts (1978), Dyck (1983), and Xu (1992) among others. In fact, this has been the most popular method of computing evapotranspiration for most conceptual hydrologic models. With regard to this method of evapotranspiration calculation the following two concepts are dominant (e.g. Dyck, 1983): (i) determination of site evapotranspiration of a soil-plant system and generalization of the site data for basins; (ii) determination of areal evapotranspiration using the concept of complementary relationship between areal and potential evapotranspiration. Many studies have been carried out utilizing the potential evapotranspiration of certain crops in the water balance calculation on a catchment level (e.g. Dyck, 1983; Oliver, 1983). Interpolation and aggregation methods are being applied to present both weather and land cover data at the relevant space and time scales for the hydrology of a runoff basin. Remote-sensing methods are going to play an ever-increasing role in the assessment of water balance which use models of varying complexity to estimate the evaporation from the surface (Oliver, 1983). 4.3.3. Runoff Streamow records provide a measure of the response of a catchment to the time variable input and internal hydrological processes. Although model output may be a single or multiple output, the ability to predict stream discharge remains the most important objective of most models. It is important for water balance studies to know different runoff components and their regimes. The number of runoff components to be analyzed depends on the characteristics of the basin and the objective of the separation, including the

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time base to be considered. For water balance modeling four runoff components, as proposed by Dyck (1983), may be identied. surface ow fast interow slow interow baseow fast components

slow components

The following storage concepts can be applied to model those components: single linear reservoir single logarithmic reservoir single nonlinear reservoir

S S S

K1 Q K2 ln Q K3 Q m

where S = storage; Q = reservoir outow (discharge); Ki = storage constant; and m = exponent. In several cases the concept of a single linear reservoir may be sufcient. 4.4. MODEL EVALUATION AND PARAMETERS ESTIMATION When a model has been developed or selected for use in predicting hydrologic outputs for a particular practical problem, it is then necessary to assess its applicability and potential accuracy for the problem at hand, and to determine the values of the model parameters or constants for the catchment under consideration. In general, several levels of evaluation are necessary before a model should be applied to estimate the output from a catchment (Pilgrim, 1975). These are: (i) rational examination of the model structure, (ii) estimation of parameter values, (iii) testing the tted model to verify its accuracy, and (iv) estimation of its range of applicability. Conceptually, these evaluations are done in sequence. Estimation of the parameter values and model tests are emphasized in this paper, although it is important to recognize that all four evaluations are of equal importance, and neglect of any one can lead to serious errors. Many types of techniques are employed for estimation of parameters of different hydrological models (e.g. Pilgrim, 1975). Of these, automatic optimization using search techniques has been the most common method in calibration of monthly water balance models. This is partly because most monthly water balance models have a simpler structure and a smaller number of parameters, which surmount some of the practical difculties encountered with optimization methods. Moreover, automatic optimization techniques yield a reproducible and unique parameter set, which is one of the conditions when the relationship between parameter values and physical characteristics is to be established.

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4.4.1. Residual Analysis Before the evaluation of parameter uncertainty can be considered, the catchment model must be posed in a statistical framework. Typically, the catchment model is formulated as (e.g. Clarke, 1973; Soorooshian and Dracup, 1980) (xt ; ) + t , t = 1, 2, ..., n qt = q (6)

where for time interval t, qt is the actual catchment response (such as runoff) (.) given xt , a vector of inputs (such as rainfall and predicted by the function q evaporation), and , a parameter vector about which inference is sought. The difference between the observed and predicted response is given by the error t . Typically, catchment model parameters are estimated by ordinary least squares (OLS), which involves solving the minimization problem: SSQ min
X

qt qxt ;

2

(7)

Provided the errors t are (1) uncorrelated and (2) have constant variance with zero mean. OLS inference furnishes valid statements of parameter uncertainty. However, as Clarke (1973) and Soorooshian and Dracup (1980) note, these are particularly strong assumptions, which often are not satised. Hence there is a need for an inference procedure capable of handling violation of both OLS error assumptions. Specically, it must be capable of exhibiting heteroscedasticity, or nonstationary variances, and autocorrelation. Residual analysis checks whether the residuals, t , behave as is required by the model hypotheses, especially whether they are independent, homoscedastic and whether they have zero expectation. There are various ways of doing so (e.g. Kuczera, 1983a; Vandewiele et al., 1992). Customarily, independence can be checked by computing the autocorrelation of residuals with time lag k. Homoscedasticity can be checked by the residuals versus time diagram and the residuals versus computed discharge diagram, etc. (e.g. Vandewiele et al., 1992; Xu, 1996). Moreover, a variety of criteria have been used for checking whether the model gives a computed output that is a sufciently close reproduction of the observed output. Clearly, to test a good t between observed and computed output certain statistical parameters have to be determined. Model efciency as dened by Nash and Sutcliffe (1970) may be used in this aspect. 4.4.2. Parameter Analysis Three different techniques can be applied in order to evaluate the parameter significance and sensitivity (e.g. Xu, 1996). 1. Evaluation of the parameter values during the optimization. Automatic optimiation procedures are mathematical search algorithms that seek to minimize differences between selected features of modeled and observed streamows by

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systematic trial alterations in the values of the model parameters. These trial alterations are called literations. The objective function, i.e. the quantitative measure of the t of modeled runoff to the observed runoff, is calculated after each parameter search iteration. Successful iterations are those which cause a reduction in the value of the objective function. During the search only the parameter set associated with the current least objective function value is retained, which, at the end of a search, is regarded as the optimal parameter set. The end of a search is usually decided by: (1) a convergence test of the rate of reduction of the objective function value; (2) a predetermined number of iterations; and (3) a computer run-time limitation. The stabilization of the parameter values can be studied with the graphs of the parameter values versus the number of iterations. If the search is ended under conditions (2) or (3) it does not guarantee that the parameters are stabilized. 2. Checking if global minimum is obtained. Note that stabilized parameter values do not necessarily mean that a global optimum has been found. In order to check whether the minimization is performed properly, graphs of the sum of squares (SSQ) versus parameter values at the neighbourhood of the optimal value can be plotted. 3. Detailed analysis of the variancecovariance matrix. The correlation matrix of the parameters has to be checked. If the correlation coefcient between two parameters is very near to 1 or 1, this means that perhaps a model can be found with a smaller number of parameters and with the same explanatory power, or that perhaps the parameters have to be built into the model in a different way, so that their explanatory effects are more dissociated, and optimization is easier. To answer the question of whether all parameters are really necessary, one can test the hypothesis that parameters are signicantly different from zero. This can be done by checking whether the zero value belongs to the 95% condence interval. 5. Conclusions Monthly water balance models being used all over the world are reviewed and the present status of development and applications of such models discussed. In the 40 years since the development of water balance methods, considerable experience has been gained in identifying the best ways to apply water balance models to answer questions about water availability, watershed characteristics, and water resources management. The water balance models have proven to be a valuable tool not only for assessing the hydrologic characteristics of diverse watersheds but also for evaluating the hydrologic consequences of climatic change. There are two practical reasons, among others, for using monthly models. First, for the purposes of planning water resources and predicting the effects of climatic change, the monthly variation of discharges may be sufcient. Second, monthly hydroclimatological data are most readily available. Monthly precipita-

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tion, temperature and/or evaporation seem to be sufcient, and sometimes even only precipitation data sufce. It appears that three to ve parameters may be sufcient to reproduce most of the information in a hydrological record on a monthly scale in humid regions. It may be worth while to use models with a relatively complex structure in arid and semi-arid regions, such as in African catchments. Because most monthly water balance models require fewer parameters to explain hydrological phenomena, the information contained per parameter is then increased, which permits a more accurate determination of parameters and more reliable correlations between parameter values and catchment characteristics. Consequently, applicability to ungauged catchments is another important advantage of such models. References
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