Predicting Impacts of Climate Change Tipping point is reached when climate change occurs irreversibly and at an increasing rate.

IPCC produced emissions scenarios A1: Converging World A2: Divided World B1: Converging World B2: Sustainability

Difficult to predict however because: We dont know how emissions will change Dont know how much will be absorbed in CO2 sinks Dont know exact effect each emission will cause Dont know how effective management techniques will be

Stern Review Published in 2006 by UK Government Sir Nicholas Stern-an economist Problems of global warming could be reduced in emissions stabilised by 2025 and then fall 13% annually after that.

Environment impacts Increasing global flood risk Declining crop yields Rising sea levels displacing 200 million people permanently Extinction of 40% of species

Economic impacts Reduce global GDP by 1% 2-3 C rise could reduce global economic output by 3%

Options for change Reduce consumer demand for heavily polluted goods and services Make energy supply more efficient Prevent further deforestation Promote cleaner energy technology

UK Government Response Set targets to reduce CO2 emissions by 30% by 2020 Invest in green technology creating 100,000 new jobs