Arab Revolt 2011

The Arab Revolt 2011
Michael Emerson CEPS, Brussels
2.4.11
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) Place du Congrs 1, 1000 Brussels, Belgium www.ceps.eu
History is about the unexpected becoming the inevitable
But is it just an Arab revolt, or is it a revolution?
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Tunisia
Morocco Algeria Libya
Syria Iraq Egypt
Iran
Saudi Arabia Oman Yemen
Lebanon
Palestinian territories Jordan
Israel
Bahrain UAE
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Thinking ahead for Europe Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) www.ceps.eu
Tunisia:
Major protests Ben Ali deposed on 14 January
Egypt:
Major protests started 25 January Until Mubarak resigns on 11 February Constitutional reform passes referendum on 24 March
4/13/201 1 Thinking ahead for Europe Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) www.ceps.eu 4
Morocco:
King agrees to prepare constitutional reforms on 9 March
Jordan:
King fires Prime Minister and Cabinet and promises democratic reforms on 1 February
Algeria:
Minor protests since 28 December Legacy of long and bitter civil war
Libya:
Major protests since 15 February Violent reactions by Gaddafi troops, high death toll UNSC Resolution 1973 of 17 March, no-fly zone and all necessary measures to protect civilians, but excluding foreign occupation of any form 18 March French, British, US military strike Two weeks later no clear result
Palestinian Territories:
Prime Minister resignation on 14 February
Lebanon:
Minor protests since 12 January Struggling democracy, with legacy of civil war
Syria:
Protests growing in importance in Marc h Government lower food prices 18 March Government replaced
4/13/201 1 Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) Place du Congrs 1, 1000 Brussels, Belgium www.ceps.eu 7
Kuwait:
Minor protests since 18 February Government resigns 28 March
Iraq:
Major protests Prime minister announces will not run for 3rd term on 5 February
Iran:
Street protests again, continuing since 2009 election 4/13/201
1 Thinking ahead for Europe Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) www.ceps.eu 8
Bahrain:
Economic concessions made by King 11 February Military troops clash with protesters, Shia v. Sunni aspect Saudi and GCC troops intervene
Saudi Arabia:
King announces economic concessions 23 February Minor demonstration
Oman:
Sultan makes economic concessions 16 February
Yemen:
President agrees to rewrite constitution 10 March President agrees to retire at year end Al Qaida aspect Protests continue, next domino to fall
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What do the Arabs want?

Arab revolt is neither Islamic nor particularly Arab Just ordinary people revolting against corrupt and inefficient authoritarian regimes, brutal security services, & lack of employment opportunities especially for educated youth, where the absence of democracy leaves them with no alternatives
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The diversity of Arab situations

Diversity of political regimes, in common Arab identity and poorto-dreadful governance, and now protest virus New post-revolutionaries (Tunisia, Egypt) Authoritarian regimes under pressure (Bahrain, Syria) Monarchies, more or less willing to make constitutional reforms (Morocco, Jordan) Very conservative monarchies (Saudi Arabia) Psychologically unbalanced & paranoiac dictatorship (Libya) Potential failed state (Yemen)
What next scenarios for Arab states?

Moderate monarchies can gradually advance constitutional reform (Morocco, Jordan), as European monarchies in 19th C Revolutionary cases face multiple scenarios, with sequential models possible, or even likely: a/ into functioning democracy (Central Europe, post-1989) b/ into dysfunctional democracy (Ukraine) c/ new leaders revert to authoritarianism, wait for next revolt d/ military take over, or reserve power (Turkey, 20th century) e/ Islamic take over (Iran) f/ into civil war, chaos, failed state (Somalia)
A global democratic tipping point?

Arab world was last remaining world region which appeared immune to democratic tendencies All continents have major democratic presence (Brazil, India, South Africa, much of East/South East Asia, & old West) Political/societal contagion accelerated by globalisation/IT BUT, European and global experiences show that postrevolutionary processes rarely smooth, because new structures and democratic cultures not in place
4/13/201 1 Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) Place du Congrs 1, 1000 Brussels, Belgium www.ceps.eu 14
Spillover beyond Arab world?

Armenia mounting demonstrations, credible opposition candidate for Presidency, next colour revolution? Croatia corrupt democracy, populist protests against everything, EU accession negotiations at risk Kazakhstan President backs off holding referendum/plebiscite over removal of term limit Russia short-term oil price boost = regime boost, but 2012 elections?
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Significance of Libya/UNSC for International security order

UNSC Resolution authorises military intervention under responsibility to protect Significant new principle justifying limited military intervention = Doctrine of human security BRICs abstain; Germany also much criticised in EU China, Russia do not veto in UNSC, unlike Kosovo 1999; means a notable move towards convergence among major powers
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Significance for the EU

Policy of supporting authoritarian Arab regimes in the interests of stability did not work in the end Some decades of stability, but now rupture with unpredictable consequences Calls now for EU to resume pro-democratic reform policies more consistently, with conditional incentives: trade, aid, visas/migration Rival theories: rational realpolitik versus constructivist socialisation
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What do you think of the French Revolution of 1789?
Zhou Enlai: It is too early to say
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The Arab Revolt 2011

Michael Emerson CEPS, Brussels

History is about the unexpected becoming the inevitable

But is it just an Arab revolt, or is it a revolution?

Syria Iraq Egypt

Saudi Arabia Oman Yemen

What do the Arabs want?

The diversity of Arab situations

What next scenarios for Arab states?

A global democratic tipping point?

Spillover beyond Arab world?

Significance of Libya/UNSC for International security order

Significance for the EU

What do you think of the French Revolution of 1789?

Zhou Enlai: It is too early to say

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