IU TIT H THNG LIN H CHA PHT IN V CP NC TI NG BNG SNG HNG GS.TS. Nguyn Tun Anh, GS.TS. V Tt Uyn, TS.

Nguyn Vn Hnh; TS. Nguyn Thanh Hng, Vin Khoa hc Thy li Tm tt: Bi bo ny trnh by phng php v ni dung thc hin khi xy dng qui trnh vn hnh lin h cha trn sng v sng L, bao gm tng quan v xy dng qui trnh vn hnh lin h cha trn th gii v trong nc, phng php xy dng qui trnh, cc vn lin quan n xy dng qui trnh, v kh nng p dng cho cc h thng sng ti Vit Nam. 1. Gii thiu Ngy 24 thng 12 nm 2004 Th tung Chnh ph, ti thng bo s 251/TB-CN, giao cho B Nng nghip v Pht trin Nng thn (NN&PTNT) ch tr vic xy dng Qui trnh iu hnh lin h cha trn sng v sng L, phc v chng l v m bo an ton cng trnh. Thc hin kin ch o ca Th tng, B NN&PTNT thnh lp Ban ch o v Ban Bin tp xy dng Qui trnh iu hnh lin h cha vi nhim v c th hin trong Quyt nh s 199/Q/BNN-TL ngy 27 thng 1 nm 2005 l xy dng Qui trnh phc v a mc tiu, ngoi mc tiu chng l cn thm cc mc tiu phat in v cp nc. Qui trnh vn hnh h thng h cha trn sng v sng L trong ma l hng nm do Vin Khoa hc Thy li xy dng c Th tng ph duyt ngy 1 thng 6 nm 2007 (Qui trnh 2007) v hin a vo s dng vn hnh cc h cha Ha Bnh, Tuyn Quang, Thc B. Ngy 14 thng 4 nm 2006 Th tng Chnh ph ra Quyt nh s 81/2006/QTTg ca ph duyt Chin lc quc gia v ti nguyn nc n nm 2020, trong n "Xy dng qui trnh vn hnh lin h cha trn cc lu vc sng ln, quan trng l mt trong 5 n u tin c u tin thc hin. Chin lc Quc gia v Ti nguyn nc trong giai on 2006-2010. y l mt d n c tm quan trng c bit trong thi gian ti v cc cng trnh h cha ln ng vai tr rt quan trng trong s pht trin kinh t-x hi ca cc lu vc sng. V cc h thng sng, hin nay nc ta c 13 sng ln vi din tch lu vc ln hn 10.000 km2 , bao gm 9 h thng sng chnh: Hng, Thi Bnh, Bng Giang - K Cng, M, C, Thu Bn-Vu Gia, Ba, ng Nai v sng Cu Long, v 4 sng nhnh (, L, S San, Sr Pk). Trn lu vc h thng sng Thi Bnh, Bng Giang-K Cng, C, Cu Long khng c cc h cha ln. Trn lu vc sng M hin ch c mt h cha ln l Ca t ang c xy dng. Cc h cha ln trn cc sng nhnh , sng L nm trong h thng h cha ln thng ngun sng Hng. Cc h thng h cha ln ang hot ng v d kin xy dng trong giai on 2006-1010 ch yu phn b ti 6 lu vc sng ln l Hng, Thu Bn- Vu Gia, Ba, ng Nai, S San, Sr Pk. V th B Ti nguyn Mi trng hin ang chun b n "Xy dng qui trnh vn hnh lin h cha trn cc lu vc sng ln, quan trng. Cc quy trnh vn hnh cn m bo c cc yu cu v phc v a mc tiu v m bo duy tr dng chy mi trng.

Bi bo ny trnh by phng php v ni dung thc hin khi xy dng qui trnh vn hnh lin h cha trn sng v sng L, bao gm tng quan v xy dng qui trnh vn hnh lin h cha trn th gii v trong nc, phng php xy dng qui trnh, cc vn lin quan n xy dng qui trnh, v kh nng p dng cho cc h thng sng ti Vit Nam. 2. Tng quan v xy dng qui trnh vn hnh lin h cha trn th gii v trong nc iu hnh h thng h cha a mc tiu vi vic s dng nc cho nhiu mc ch khc nhau thu ht nhiu nh nghin cu trong vi chc nm gn y. Mt trong nhng nguyn nhn chnh l s mu thun c in gia kim sot l v cc mc ch bo ton nh cp nc, sn xut in, ti,...Thng thng vn ny sinh trong vic s dng chin lc phn phi xc nh dung tch phng l di hn trong ma ma v x nc ngn hn trong iu hnh thi gian thc. Cc nghin cu v quyt nh di hn lin quan n vic phn b dung tch phng l c xt n s bin ng ca dng chy nm v cc nguy c lin quan khc. Khi lm vic vi mt h cha n, vn ny c th c gii quyt bng cc phng php lun do Beard [4], Klemes [Error! Reference source not found.], hay Duren v Beard [Error! Reference source not found.]. Vic phn b dung tch phng l trong h thng a h cha l bi ton phc tp hn nhiu v tng tc gia cc lu lng thng, h lu cho ton b h thng cn phi c xem xt. Marien [Error! Reference source not found.] v Kelman et all [Error! Reference source not found.] xut phng php da trn khi nim "iu kin kim sot c". Khi nim ny c Marien s dng [Error! Reference source not found.] xc nh ng cong quy trnh kim sot l cho cc h thng h cha a mc tiu. Ti khu vc chu , cc nghin cu v cc bin php chng l v iu hnh h thng a h cha chng l c pht trin mnh m Trung Quc trong nhng nm gn y. Hiu qu ca vic iu tit h chng l c th hin r trong vic chng l 100 nm vo nm 1995 sng Liaohe v l nm 1998 sng Trng Giang. Nhn thc c tm quan trng ca vic iu hnh h thng a h cha phc v chng l, nm 1998 chnh ph Trung Quc giao cho Cc Phng chng L lt v Hn hn Quc gia v 3 trng i hc: i hc Cng ngh Dalian, i hc H Hi v i hc Thu in V Hn thc hin d n H thng qun l tch hp trong kim sot l bng cc h cha (Integrated Management System for Flood Conrol of Reservoirs) trong 5 nm vi nhim v l thit lp H thng phn mm kim sot l cho h thng a h cha, thu thp v x l s liu tng th theo thi gian thc, phn tch ma, d bo l, trao i d liu trn ton quc thng qua h c s d liu ln trn my tnh. Kt qu ca d n l b chng trnh phn mm v b c s d liu c th s dng bi trung tm iu hnh chng l v cc h cha n l. Cc kt qu ny c ng ti trn nhiu tp ch Khoa hc quc t [Error! Reference source not found.-Error! Reference source not found.]. Cui nm 2005 ti Trung Quc t chc mt Hi tho quc t v iu hnh cc h thng h cha a mc tiu. Cc bo co u tp trung vo hai vn chnh l xc nh cc ng cong qui trnh theo cc phng php m phng v phng php ti u. Trong , phng

php m phng vn l phng php c s dng nhiu hn [Error! Reference source not found.] gii quyt bi ton iu hnh h cha, nhn chung c hai cch tip cn vn : cch tip cn tin nh (deterministic) v cch tip cn thng k (stochastic). Cch tip cn tin nh da trn gi thit l tng ha chnh xc d bo dng chy vo h v c nghin cu v s dng nhiu trong thi gian gn y [Error! Reference source not found.-Error! Reference source not found.] nh s tin b trong d bo kh tng thy vn cng nh m hnh ma ro dng chy. Cc nghin cu s dng cch tip cn thng k c th tm thy trong cc ti liu Archibald v nnk [Error! Reference source not found.], Krzysztofowicz 2002... [Error! Reference source not found.-Error! Reference source not found.]. Cch tip cn thng k i hi khi lng tnh ton rt ln, t c s dng iu hnh h theo thi gian thc. Ti nc ta, trong h thng sng Hng-Thi Bnh s hnh thnh mt h thng h cha bc thang v song song nhm khai thc ti a ti nguyn nc lu vc v thy in, chng l, cp nc phc v pht trin kinh t x hi. Trn sng s hnh thnh h thng h vi 6 h cha l Ha Bnh, Sn La, Bn Trc, Lai Chu, Hui Qung, Nm Chin. Trn sng Gm l Tuyn Quang, Bo Lc, cn trn sng Chy l Thc B Hin ti, trong khun kh d n Nghin cu v son tho quy trnh vn hnh lin h cha trn sng v sng L phc v a mc tiu, m bo an ton pht trin kinh t x hi ng bng Bc b Chnh ph ban hnh Qui trnh vn hnh lin h cha cc cng trnh Thy in Ha Bnh, Tuyn Quang, Thc B trong ma l hng nm theo Quyt nh s 80/2007/Q-TTg ngy 01/06/2007. Cn trc ch c cc qui trnh vn hnh cho cc h cha n l. 3. Phng php xy dng qui trnh Phng php m phng l phng php c la chn xy dng qui trnh ln ny v nhng l do chnh sau y: Phng php m phng l phng php m th gii ang p dng Lit s liu trong 43 nm, t nm 1962 n nm 2004 phn nh c ch l ti ng bng sng Hng - Thi Bnh. Trong s 56 trn l xy ra c 17 trn l nh (mc nc ti H Ni nh hn 10,5 m), 20 trn l va (mc nc ti H Ni nh hn 11 m) v 19 trn l ln (mc nc ti H Ni ln hn 11,5 m), trong c cc trn l ln vo cc nm 1969, 1971 v 1996. Kinh nghim v cng c xy dng cc kch bn l thit k, m hnh ton m phng dng chy v vn hnh h cha ca nhm nghin cu c hon thin v nng cao ng k trong nhng nm gn y. 4. Cc vn lin quan n xy dng qui trnh Trn c s phng php la chn, tin hnh cc bc xy dng qui trnh nh sau: 1. Thu thp cc ti liu c bn v a hnh, kh tng, thy vn. 2. Nghin cu phn k l xc nh cc thi k iu hnh.

Xy dng cc cng ngh m phng. Xy dng cc kch bn l: thng xuyn, thit k, cng trnh. Tnh ton xc nh ng cong qui trnh v qui tc vn hnh h. nh gi tc ng ca tiu ng i vi cc tham s ca Qui trnh vn hnh v xc nh mt s kch bn qui trnh. 7. La chn kch bn qui trnh qua nh gi sn lng in trong ma l v so snh sn lng in trung bnh nm ca phng n chn ca Qui trnh lin h vi cc qui trnh 97 v 2005 8. ng dng d bo thy vn trung hn (5 ngy) bin tp qui trnh 9. Xc nh mt s cc tham s khc ca ng cong qui trnh v qui tc vn hnh h 10. nh gi kh nng tch nc v kh nng a mc nc h Ha Bnh v mc nc trc l ca thi k chnh v ca Qui trnh lin h i vi h Ho Bnh 11. Tng hp kt qu vit qui trnh. C th nh sau: Th nht, lit s liu c bn c s dng v kh tng, thy vn di 43 nm, t nm 1962 n nm 2004. So vi tiu chun ti M th lit s liu ca ta di hn 13 nm. Cc s liu a hnh l cc s liu mi nht o trong chng trnh l 1999-2001 v cc ti nghin cu khoa hc aaaps nh nc. S liu v cc h cha c thu thp qua Tng Cng ty in lc Vit Nam. Ti liu v cc ng giao thng, phn , bn DEM c thu thp t nhiu ngun khc nhau. nhng ni thiu s liu th p dng tnh ton khi phc bng cc phng php thy vn. Th hai, i vi nghin cu phn k l: Tnh ton phn k l nhm xc nh cc thi k iu hnh vi cc c im v mc ca l khc nhau. Vic nghin cu phn k l c tin hnh trong khi xy dng cc Qui trnh 97 v Qui trnh 2005 cho h Ha Bnh, nhng do yu cu ca ngnh in ngh xem xt rt ngn thi gian ca thi k l chnh v nn nghin cu phn k l cng c tin hnh trong d n ny. Qua biu lu lng nh l ln nht tc thi Qmax ti cc trm (Xem v d ti Hnh 1) c th nhn thy hu ht cc trn l c lu lng nh l ln u tp trung vo cui thng VII v thng VIII. Trong tp trung ch yu trong khong thi gian t 15/VII 25/VIII hng nm. Trng hp l thng 8/1971 c nh xut hin vo ngy 22/VIII. Trong thng VII quy m l xut hin vi tn sut tng ng vi l nm 1971 ch c 27.600 m3/s, tng ng vi mc nc l ti H Ni l 13.30m. Trong thng IX th tr s l 23.000 m3/s tng ng mc nc ti H Ni l 12,5m. Xt chui s liu thng k t nm 1960 2004 th trn sng Hng Sn Ty tn sut xut hin l cao nht hng nm xy ra vo thng VI l 6%, thng VII l 28%, thng VIII l 55% v thng IX l 11% tng s ln xut hin. Nh vy th l cao nht hng nm cng tp trung vo thng VII v thng VII l ch yu.

3. 4. 5. 6.

Xem xt cc kha cnh v nh hng ca kh hu, phn tch thng k cc s liu v biu lu lng ln nht ti cc trm, c bit l trm Sn Ty, nghin cu ny cng chia s quan im vi cc nghin cu trc y ca Vin Qui hoch Thy li v Trng i hc Thy li l chia thi gian iu hnh l thnh 3 thi k l sm t 15 thng 6 n 15 thng 7, l chnh v t 15 thng 7 n 25 thng 8 v l mun t 25 thng 8 n 15 thng 9

Hnh 1. Biu lu lng ln nht ti trm Sn Ty. Th ba, tnh ton m phng ct l mt m hnh ton c xy dng da trn b chng trnh MIKE 11 v cc s liu v a hnh, kh tng thy vn v cc s liu v h cha. M hnh ton c xy dng cho ton b h thng sng thuc ng bng Bc B, bao gm c 3 h cha Ha Bnh, Tuyn Quang, Thc B. M hnh ton c kh nng iu tit l h cha t ng theo cc tiu ch cho trc. Kh nng ct l t ng ca m hnh l u th ng k to iu kin tnh ton mt khi lng v cng ln cc phng n l thng xuyn v cc kch bn l. M hnh bao gm ton b h thng sng thuc ng bng sng Hng - Thi Bnh, cc cha cho cc vng phn l, chm l v cc vng khc thuc ng bng. Ranh gii phn c xy dng da trn cc nghin cu phn lu vc sng y ca Vin Qui hoch thy li, ranh gii cc ng giao thng t ti cp nh nc v nghin cu xy dng cc c s khoa hc phc v phng chng l lt v gim nh thin tai ti ng bng sng Hng do Vin C hc ch tr. ng c tnh ca cc cha c tnh ton bng chng trnh MIKE 11 GIS trn c s bn DEM 90 m x 90 m. M hnh c tnh n cc lu lng nhp cc khu gia thng lu Yn Bi - Thanh Sn - Ph Th trn sng Thao, Na Hang - Thc Hc - Chim Ha trn sng Gm, Chim Ha - Hm Yn - Tuyn Quang, Tuyn Quang - Thc B - V Quang v tnh n lng nhp tiu ng h lu. Th t l tin hnh xy dng cc kch bn l. y l mt trong cc ni dung u vo c bn v quan trng nht i vi nghin cu xy dng cc qui trnh vn hnh. Nu xc nh cc kch bn khng chnh xc th kt qu tnh ton m phng cng khng c ngha. V th vic xy dng cc kch bn l c tham kho v ly kin ca nhiu chuyn gia trong ngnh. Cc kch bn l y bao gm: - Cc kch bn l thng xuyn l cc trn l xy ra trong lch s t nm 1962 n 2004

- Cc kch bn l thit k bao gm cc trn l c cc chu k lp li 150 nm v 250 nm vi cc dng l bt li nh cc nm 1969, 1971 v 1996. S d phi xy dng cc kch bn l thit k ny l do trong tiu chun phng chng l 14 TCN 122 - 2002 qui nh l h thng 3 h cha Ha Bnh, Tuyn Quang, Thc B kh nng chng l 150 nm cho ng bng Bc B v 250 nm cho Th H Ni. Cc kch bn l thit k c xy dng theo phng php Monte Carlo do c GS.TS. Trnh Quang Ha xut cho ng bng sng Hng. - Cc kch bn l cng trnh: l cc trn l kch bn tng ng vi tn sut l cng trnh ca cc h cha. Th nm l tnh ton m phng xc nh ng cong qui trnh v qui tc vn hnh cc h cha. Cc tham s ca Qui trnh trong thi k k sm c xc nh qua tnh ton v m phng cc kch bn l thng xuyn. Theo phn tch kt qu tnh ton ii vi tng cp l tham s ca ng cong qui trnh c th c cc gi tr nh sau: 1. Thi k l sm: T 15 thng 6 n 15 thng 7 Bng 1. Mc nc cc h trong thi k l sm theo kt qu tnh ton QTVHHTX H Ha Bnh Tuyn Quang Thc B Mc nc trc l 98-102 105,2 56 Mc nc chng l 117 113 58 2. Thi k l chnh v: T 16 thng 7 n 25 thng 8 Bng 2. Mc nc cc h trong thi k l chnh v theo kt qu tnh ton QTVHHTX H Ha Bnh Tuyn Quang Thc B Mc nc h 95 105,2 56 Mc nc chng l 117 120 58 Theo kt qu ny mc nc h Ha Bnh ti thi k l sm c nng cao c 5 m so vi Qui trnh 97 v 3 m so vi Qui trnh 2005, tc l nng cao hiu sut pht in hn so vi cc qui trnh trc. ng thi mc nc bt u ct l l t 10,5m.

H (m )
110.0
1964

M ?CN U?CH ?H O B N HC P LH H N?I = 11,5-12,5m

111m

1970

1995

105.0

2002 1983

100.0

98m
95.0

95m

90.0

64 85.0 01/06 08/06 15/06 22/06

66 29/06

68 06/07

70 13/07

79 20/07

80

83 27/07

85 03/08

95 10/08

2002 17/08 24/08 31/08 07/09 14/09 21/09 28/09 05/10 12/10

N gy/Thng

Hnh 2. Mc nc h Ha Bnh vi cp l 11,5m-12,5m Cc tham s ng cong qui trnh v qui tc vn hnh cc h trong thi k l chnh v c xc nh thng qua tnh ton cc kch bn l thit k. Phng php y l xy dng mt s kch bn tham s ca qui trnh, sau tnh ton ct l p ng tiu chun 14TCN-2002 v xc nh ra tham s v qui tc vn hnh tng ng. Th su, cc kch bn l u tnh n cc lu lng nhp lu khu gia v tiu ng ra sng. Theo kt qu tnh ton cc kch bn l thit k, cc kch bn l cng trnh v nh gi kh nng gia tng mc nc trn cc h thng sng do tiu ng la chn c ba phng n qui tc vn hnh thi k l chnh v nh sau: Bng 3. Ba phng n Qui tc vn hnh h Ha Bnh theo 3 bc trong ma l chnh v Cp mc nc Cp mc nc h Ho Cp mc nc h Cp mc nc h H ni bnh PA1 Ho bnh PA2 Ho bnh PA3 (m) (m) (m) (m) 11.5 98 97 96 13.1 115 114.5 114 13.4 117 117 117 Th by, qua nh gi v hiu ch v in ca tng phng n qui trnh thy rng PA1 cho hiu qu in nng ln hn cc phng n khc khong 30 GWh, n cui thi k l chnh v mc nc h cao hn cc kch bn khc 2,13 m, tng ng vi dung tch h cha khong 400 triu m3 v 95 triu KWh . Nh vy, tng in nng tng thm ca kch bn ny l 125 triu KWh, tng ng vi 66,3 t ng (nu tnh theo g 530/KWh). Nh vy Phng n 1 c la chn xy dng qui trnh. Th tm l vn ng dng d bo thy vn trung hn. Tng hp kt qu th nghim nm 2005 v 2006 c th thy rng d bo trung hn gip iu hnh theo qui trnh mm do hn v c bit to iu kin gi mc nc cc h tng kh nng pht in cng nh chng l ln, do c thng tin v xu th l trc 5 ngy (cc nh v chn l trc 5 ngy). V th s dng cc thng tin v d bo trung hn trong vic iu hnh

h cha nn c s dng. ng thi, d bo trung hn 5 ngy H Ni l tng i tt vi cht lng d bo trn 60%. iu ny c th gii thch c l do mc nc d bo ti H Ni 5 ngy chu nh hng ca d bo 2 ngy u trn thng lu v 3 ngy sau h luu. Mc nc ti H Ni li l mt trong nhng tham s chnh ca qui trnh vn hnh. V vy, cng nn s dng d bo Trung hn vo qui trnh iu hnh. Th chn l xc nh mt s cc tham s khc ca qui trnh vn hnh nh ct l tiu mn, xc nh khong thi gian m su ca x u ca h Ha Bnh Th mi, nh gi kh nng tch nc ca h Ha Bnh v kh nng a v mc nc trc l ca thi k l chnh v tin hnh ct l thng xuyn cc nm t 1996 n 2004 theo Qui trnh 2006. Thi gian tnh ton t ngy 1 thng 6 n 15 thng 10 hng nm. Vi mi nm l c 4 phng n tng ng vi 2 thi im a mc nc h Ha Bnh v mc nc trc l ca thi k l chnh v (ngy 1 thng 7 v ngy 10 thng 7) v hai gi tr ca mc nc trc l (90 m v 94 m). Kt qu cho thy Qui trnh m bo kh nng cho h Ha Bnh tch nc n cao trnh khng di 110 m vo ngy 15 thng 9 v m bo kh nng a c mc nc h Ha Bnh v mc nc trc l ca thi k chnh v trong c hai trng hp t ngy 1 thng 7 v t ngy 10 thng 7. 5. Kt lun v kin ngh i vi vic xy dng qui trnh lin h cha Ha Bnh, Tuyn Quang, Thc B: V nng cao hiu qu pht in ca h Ha bnh: So vi cc qui trnh trc th mc nc trc l trong thi k l sm ca h Ha Bnh c th gi mc cao hn so vi cc qui trnh trc t 98 m n 102 m, tng t 3 m n 7 m, ngoi ra bt u ct l t 10,5m (sm hn so vi trc 1m) lm tng cng sut in mt cch ng k. V tng th c ma l sn lng in c th tng t 99 n 160 triu kWh so vi Qui trnh 97. Nh vy th cng p ng c yu cu v tng nng sut in. V kh nng chng l: Theo cc kt qu tnh ton, nu gi mc nc trc l ca h Ha Bnh trong thi k l chnh v khng qu 90 m th c th chng c l chu k 250 nm. Tuy nhin trong 3 dng l in hnh c chn tnh ton th i vi cc dng l 1969 v 1971 c th duy tr mc nc trc l mc 94 m; ch c dng 1996 l phi duy tr mc 90 m. C th thy rng con l tng t ny ch xy ra xc xut 250 nm 1 ln nn c th gi mc nc trc l trong thi k l chnh v ca h Ha Bnh mc cao n 94 m; trong trng hp d bo c th xut hin l 150 nm th phi nhanh chng a h Ha Bnh v mc nc di 90 m l mc nc an ton theo tnh ton. iu cho php iu hnh mm do hn v to iu kin tng nng sut in, gp phn tch nc hiu qu hn i vi l thng xuyn. Nh vy th h thng h cha cng kh nng chng l theo tiu chun phng l hin hnh. V kh nng s dng d bo trung hn: nh gi nh lng theo tng thi gian sai s cn cha m bo, song d bo xu th v l l tng i chnh xc, gip iu hnh theo qui trnh mm do hn v c bit to iu kin gi mc nc cc h tng kh nng pht in cng nh chng l ln, do c thng tin v cc nh v chn l

trc 5 ngy. V th c th s dng d bo trung hn 5 ngy trong iu hnh hng nm V kh nng tch nc: Qui trnh 2007 cng m bo kh nng tch nc mm do khi cho php iu hnh mm do hn l da vo cc d bo trung hn c th quyt nh tch nc ngay t thi k l chnh v (t 16 thng 8) i vi kh nng p dng vo cc h thng h khc: Cng ngj xy dng qui trnh trnh by l sn phm tr tu ca tp th cc khoa hc u ngnh trong lnh vc thy li v thy in, cp n rt nhiu vn mi nh d bo trung hn, s phi hp gia cc h, nh gi sn lng in, ng thi cc cng c s dng l tin tin v hin i. V vy cng ngh ny c kh ng p dng xy dng cc qui trnh cho cc h thng h khc ti Vit nam.