People's

bank of
China

,
Unused
Unused
Unused
,
Section

Section
Section

Space
1

Space 2

Space 3

, ,

:
9,596,961 2
:
22,117
:
14,500
, , , ,
, , , , ,
, ,

:

!

10-
- .

8%-
.


. ,
,
1-

.

.
-

, , ,

2




.



,

.

,


-
-
.

.
.



()

 1977-2003

( )
450
400
350

300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003

( )

 ( )
Sep-11

May-11

Jan-11

Sep-10

May-10

Jan-10

Sep-09

May-09

Jan-09

Sep-08

May-08

Jan-08

Sep-07

May-07

Jan-07

Sep-06

May-06

Jan-06

Sep-05

May-05

Jan-05

Sep-04

May-04

Jan-04

2004-2011
( )

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000

$
1,500

1,000

500

RMB

Peoples Bank od China -

1948 12- 1-
.
: 3.201 $
1949-1978
-
.




.
PBC .

M2
M3





,
.
.


1978-2010
1990- ,
,

. (1986
)
1995

. (1995 )
2009

1983 :
1983-1998
1999-2010
2011- ???


M1 growth
(%)
(%)

M2 growth
(%)
(%)

Increment
loan
RMB

(
(RMB)
trillion)

Target
Actual
value
Target
Actual
value
Target
Actual
value

1994

21

26.2

24

34.5

0.70

1995

21-23

16.8

23-25

29.5

1.06

1996

18

18.9

25

25.3

1.06

1997

18

16.5

23

17.3

1.38

1998

17

11.9

16-18

15.3

0.9

1.16

1999

14

17.7

14-15

14.7

1.0

0.72

2000

15-17

16.0

14-15

13.99

1.0

0.56

2001

13-14

12.7

15-16

14.4

1.3

1.29

2002

13

16.8

13

16.78

1.3

1.90

2003

16

18.7

16

19.6

1.8

2.77

2004

17

13.6

17

14.6

2.6

1.84

2005

15

11.8

15

17.57

2.5

1.73

2006

14

17.5

16

16.94

2.5

3.06

2007

21.0

16

16.72

2.9

3.64

2008

9.1

16

17.82

3.6

4.17

2009

32.4

17

27.68

>5.0

9.63

2010

21.2

17

19.72

7.5

7.95



:
(RMB100 )

1994

17,588

4,451

25.3%

1995

20,624

6,670

32.3%

1996

26,467

9,562

36.1%

1997

31,413

13,229

42.1%

1998

31,268

13,560

43.4%

1999

35,350

14,459

40.9%

2000

39,002

15,189

38.9%

2001

42,227

19,351

45.8%

2002

51,108

23,243

45.5%

2003

62,004

31,142

50.2%

2004

78,655

46,398

59.0%

2005

103,676

63,339

61.1%

2006

128,575

85,773

66.7%

2007

169,140

124,825

73.8%

2008

207,096

162,544

78.5%

2009

227,530

185,333

81.5%

2010

259,275

215,420

83.1%

Figure
2. Money
Velocity

2 .

Figure
1. Growth
of Money

1.

35

3.0

M0

M1

M2

GDP/M1

GDP/M2

30
2.5

25
2.0

20
1.5

15
10

1.0

0.5

WindWind
Data Data
Source:
:

:
Wind Data
Source:
Wind Data

20
09

20
07

20
05

20
03

20
01

19
99

19
97

19
95

19
93

19
91

19
89

19
87

19
85

20
10

20
09

20
08

20
07

20
06

20
05

20
04

20
03

20
02

20
01

20
00

19
99

19
98

-5

0.0

19
97

19
96

3 .

Figure 5. CPI and M1 growth per GDP
1-
30

4 .
Figure
6. CPI
and lag of M1 growth

1-

45

dM1/GDP

CPI

CPI

dM1(-1)

40

25
35
20

30
25

15

20
10

15
10

WindWind
Data Data
Source:
:

Source:
Wind Data

:
Wind Data

20
09

20
07

20
05

20
03

20
01

19
99

19
97

19
95

19
93

19
91

19
89

-5

19
87

19
85

20
09

20
07

20
05

20
03

20
01

19
99

19
97

19
95

19
93

19
91

19
89

-5

19
87

19
85

 0-2

1
m2

-0.2

-0.2

-1

-2

-3

-4

-5

-10

-1

-2

-3

0.2

-4

0.2

-5

0.4

-6

0.4

-7

0.6

-8

0.6

-9

0.8

-10

0.8

-6

1994-2002

-7

m1

-8

m0

-9

1994-2010

- 0-2

-0.2

-0.2

-1

-2

-3

-4

-10

-1

0
-2

0
-3

0.2

-4

0.2

-5

0.4

-6

0.4

-7

0.6

-8

0.6

-9

0.8

-10

0.8

-5

1994-2002

m2

-6

m1

-7

m0

-8

1994-2010

-9

- 0-2-

1
1994-2010

m0

m1

1994-2002

m2
0.8

0.8

0.6
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.2

-0.2

-1

-2

-3

-4

-5

-6

-7

-8

-9

-10

-0.2
-0.4

-1

-2

-3

-4

-5

-6

-7

-8

-9

-10



,
.